­

Archive for Soft Commodities – Page 10

11 Mar

Soft Commodities COT Charts: February 21st data showed Speculators boosted bets of Cocoa & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is still a few weeks behind the current data because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC has back-filled some data over the past few weeks and will get the data back up to date in the coming weeks.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cocoa & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher that week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cocoa (17,227 contracts), Lean Hogs (7,584 contracts) with Coffee (7,266 contracts), Soybean Oil (7,105 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,600 contracts), Live Cattle (3,446 contracts) and Soybeans (1,374 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Corn (-21,689 contracts) with Wheat (-13,364 contracts), Cotton (-14,119 contracts) and Sugar (-5,488 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Feb-21-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,756,02932219,6714-241,2979621,62635
Corn1,340,32220283,02366-209,63542-73,3886
Natural Gas1,270,68663-179,26417141,5158237,74969
Sugar926,55353233,33874-277,7422344,40463
Soybeans731,52934193,26067-150,14145-43,1190
Gold422,6480107,10121-129,3557722,25436
Wheat359,36042-47,488147,55297-64100
Heating Oil259,5582017,56567-26,091458,52628
Copper219,205582,04935-8,510626,46163
Coffee196,128912,31640-14,198621,88226
Brent150,90712-39,9003336,847653,05351
Silver123,90639,90232-23,0506613,14839
Platinum67,499582,90522-8,394765,48942
Palladium11,94384-5,18805,552100-36420

 

Strength Scores were led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (100 percent) led the softs markets on February 21st. Sugar (74 percent), Cocoa (69 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (1 percent), Cotton (5 percent) and Lean Hogs (10 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Soybean Oil (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (66.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (69.0 percent)
Sugar (74.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (76.0 percent)
Coffee (40.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (32.6 percent)
Soybeans (67.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (66.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (23.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (98.1 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (96.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (10.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (2.0 percent)
Cotton (5.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (15.8 percent)
Cocoa (69.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.4 percent)
Wheat (0.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.9 percent)

 

Coffee & Live Cattle topped the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (28 percent) and Live Cattle (28 percent) led the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (21 percent), Soybeans (20 percent) and Sugar (16 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-26 percent) led the downside trend scores that week with Soybean Oil (-18 percent), Cotton (-16 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (6.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (15.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.6 percent)
Coffee (27.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (6.0 percent)
Soybeans (19.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (16.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-17.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (27.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-25.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-53.0 percent)
Cotton (-16.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.1 percent)
Cocoa (20.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.1 percent)
Wheat (-8.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing equaled a net position of 283,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -21,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 304,712 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.941.98.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.857.514.0
– Net Position:283,023-209,635-73,388
– Gross Longs:414,502561,129114,376
– Gross Shorts:131,479770,764187,764
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.242.05.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.3-3.8-16.1

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing equaled a net position of 233,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly fall of -5,488 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 238,826 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.339.510.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.169.55.6
– Net Position:233,338-277,74244,404
– Gross Longs:317,876366,00195,884
– Gross Shorts:84,538643,74351,480
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.223.562.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.7-13.0-0.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 12,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 7,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,050 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.546.25.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.253.54.1
– Net Position:12,316-14,1981,882
– Gross Longs:44,12290,64010,018
– Gross Shorts:31,806104,8388,136
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.161.825.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.7-25.4-21.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 193,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 1,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 191,886 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.845.26.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.365.712.4
– Net Position:193,260-150,141-43,119
– Gross Longs:239,615330,71947,851
– Gross Shorts:46,355480,86090,970
– Long to Short Ratio:5.2 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.244.90.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.6-15.9-11.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 36,282 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,105 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,177 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.952.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.963.15.2
– Net Position:36,282-46,88710,605
– Gross Longs:86,110240,46134,271
– Gross Shorts:49,828287,34823,666
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.870.753.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.815.45.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 175,951 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly rise of 3,600 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 172,351 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.533.810.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.175.67.0
– Net Position:175,951-191,70815,757
– Gross Longs:190,333154,81748,064
– Gross Shorts:14,382346,52532,307
– Long to Short Ratio:13.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.014.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-6.0-36.7

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 104,274 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly lift of 3,446 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,828 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.023.310.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.051.613.1
– Net Position:104,274-95,188-9,086
– Gross Longs:151,31078,36835,012
– Gross Shorts:47,036173,55644,098
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.038.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.6-26.0-11.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 1,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly boost of 7,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,880 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.135.110.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.333.812.9
– Net Position:1,7042,763-4,467
– Gross Longs:65,67874,07022,814
– Gross Shorts:63,97471,30727,281
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.294.874.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.825.610.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -2,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly decrease of -14,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,150 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.851.26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.449.96.4
– Net Position:-2,9692,542427
– Gross Longs:51,46094,93812,306
– Gross Shorts:54,42992,39611,879
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.094.713.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.015.7-10.1

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of 46,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly increase of 17,227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,858 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.839.94.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.257.43.0
– Net Position:46,085-51,5945,509
– Gross Longs:105,772117,96714,353
– Gross Shorts:59,687169,5618,844
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.427.151.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-23.215.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing the week equaled a net position of -47,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday February 21st. This was a weekly reduction of -13,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,124 net contracts.

The week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.739.010.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.925.810.3
– Net Position:-47,48847,552-64
– Gross Longs:92,453140,22436,892
– Gross Shorts:139,94192,67236,956
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.996.7100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.24.717.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
25 Feb

COT Soft Commodities: January 31st data shows Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 31st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

*** This data is almost a month old because the CFTC up-to-date data has been delayed due to a cybersecurity event that happened in early February to ION Cleared Derivatives (a subsidiary of ION Markets). This hack of ION has created a problem for the large trader positions to be reported and reconciled. The CFTC states that they will be back-filling the data over the next couple weeks and will get the data back up to date.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher for the week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (61,988 contracts), Soybeans (23,176 contracts), Coffee (20,847 contracts), Corn (19,443 contracts), Live Cattle (10,995 contracts), Wheat (8,260 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,045 contracts) and Cocoa (218 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were Lean Hogs (-6,760 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-7,879 contracts) and Cotton (-928 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-31-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,726,37829243,82010-266,6228922,80237
Corn1,298,16414296,81268-225,62240-71,1902
Natural Gas1,146,70938-169,21424134,0137635,20163
Sugar995,39155247,07279-292,4481945,37664
Soybeans689,80625178,39867-137,15346-41,2451
Gold471,64216160,28136-180,5206320,23931
Wheat350,87129-40,060741,56490-1,504100
Heating Oil265,4442221,74774-45,4282323,68180
Copper224,8246117,21550-24,414487,19967
Coffee221,89429-1,88125-926752,80739
Brent156,92916-43,4072639,572703,83561
Silver138,2631427,31644-40,4345713,11837
Platinum69,1214016,13733-22,213656,07649
Palladium11,24534-4,27104,632100-36120

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (96 percent) and Sugar (79 percent) led the softs markets for the week. Live Cattle (76 percent), Corn (68 percent) and Soybeans (67 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Wheat (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and were in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Cotton (20 percent) and the Soybean Oil (24 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (67.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.5 percent)
Sugar (78.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (57.6 percent)
Coffee (25.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.1 percent)
Soybeans (66.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (59.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (24.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (29.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (96.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (92.3 percent)
Live Cattle (76.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (62.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (7.6 percent)
Cotton (20.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (41.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (41.5 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Live Cattle & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (26 percent) and Soybeans (17 percent) led the six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cocoa (7 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-42 percent) led the downside trend scores with Soybean Oil (-23 percent), Wheat (-3 percent) and Cotton (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (12.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.3 percent)
Sugar (4.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Coffee (2.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.6 percent)
Soybeans (17.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (13.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.5 percent)
Live Cattle (26.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (9.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-41.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-34.2 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (7.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-2.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 296,812 contracts in the data reported through January 31st. This was a weekly boost of 19,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 277,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.442.08.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.559.414.4
– Net Position:296,812-225,622-71,190
– Gross Longs:407,766545,068115,712
– Gross Shorts:110,954770,690186,902
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.939.82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.4-9.5-20.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 247,072 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 61,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 185,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.539.210.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.768.55.7
– Net Position:247,072-292,44845,376
– Gross Longs:333,718389,834102,320
– Gross Shorts:86,646682,28256,944
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.919.364.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.8-2.7-5.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -1,881 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly increase of 20,847 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.746.24.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.546.63.5
– Net Position:-1,881-9262,807
– Gross Longs:45,937102,56510,630
– Gross Shorts:47,818103,4917,823
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.575.038.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-4.731.8

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 178,398 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 23,176 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 155,222 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.346.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.466.712.6
– Net Position:178,398-137,153-41,245
– Gross Longs:222,823323,16645,644
– Gross Shorts:44,425460,31986,889
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.846.31.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.2-14.8-14.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 31,371 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -7,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.252.58.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.861.27.0
– Net Position:31,371-36,7975,426
– Gross Longs:77,553223,98635,438
– Gross Shorts:46,182260,78330,012
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.577.033.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.024.7-22.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 157,830 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly advance of 8,045 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.033.111.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.073.97.3
– Net Position:157,830-173,74115,911
– Gross Longs:174,746141,04547,162
– Gross Shorts:16,916314,78631,251
– Long to Short Ratio:10.3 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.05.715.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.2-5.3-31.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 77,223 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly boost of 10,995 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.528.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.951.512.4
– Net Position:77,223-72,958-4,265
– Gross Longs:126,87488,27434,568
– Gross Shorts:49,651161,23238,833
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.213.465.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.0-27.2-5.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -3,594 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lowering of -6,760 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.236.611.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.935.011.8
– Net Position:-3,5943,412182
– Gross Longs:67,14978,66825,530
– Gross Shorts:70,74375,25625,348
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-41.931.660.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 16,905 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly decline of -928 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.247.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.257.35.4
– Net Position:16,905-20,4883,583
– Gross Longs:61,398100,10814,890
– Gross Shorts:44,493120,59611,307
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.278.733.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-1.27.0

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing for the week was a net position of 25,159 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly rise of 218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.047.44.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.756.63.2
– Net Position:25,159-27,8182,659
– Gross Longs:93,440142,79312,252
– Gross Shorts:68,281170,6119,593
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.759.923.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.3-5.9-14.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing for the week was a net position of -40,060 contracts in the data reported. This was a weekly lift of 8,260 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.638.310.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.126.410.7
– Net Position:-40,06041,564-1,504
– Gross Longs:89,996134,23635,913
– Gross Shorts:130,05692,67237,417
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.590.4100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.80.513.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
28 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-24-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,660,45023249,79912-273,2468823,44738
Corn1,274,41011277,36965-205,66243-71,7072
Natural Gas1,102,76027-170,97224138,4827832,49057
Sugar924,84842185,08458-229,3393744,25563
Soybeans667,41620155,22259-117,94552-37,2778
Gold499,92725157,67335-180,5546322,88137
Wheat350,33127-48,320050,423100-2,10399
Heating Oil278,1592725,36080-48,5402023,18079
Coffee231,36035-22,728420,167962,56135
Copper213,3985220,17052-26,542466,37262
Brent153,68614-36,8004133,917572,88348
Silver134,9221225,68442-39,4615813,77741
Platinum72,6134620,26139-25,819615,55842
Palladium9,36320-3,29783,53491-23727

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

 

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.543.89.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.760.014.7
– Net Position:277,369-205,662-71,707
– Gross Longs:388,317558,456115,106
– Gross Shorts:110,948764,118186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.542.62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.3-4.6-22.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.243.89.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.268.65.1
– Net Position:185,084-229,33944,255
– Gross Longs:270,150404,94891,086
– Gross Shorts:85,066634,28746,831
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.637.462.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.7-0.210.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.652.94.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.444.23.5
– Net Position:-22,72820,1672,561
– Gross Longs:45,404122,40010,598
– Gross Shorts:68,132102,2338,037
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.195.935.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.611.621.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.946.66.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.764.312.5
– Net Position:155,222-117,945-37,277
– Gross Longs:206,329311,30746,219
– Gross Shorts:51,107429,25283,496
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.452.58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-11.7-10.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.150.68.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.361.67.4
– Net Position:39,250-44,5145,264
– Gross Longs:80,599203,13334,963
– Gross Shorts:41,349247,64729,699
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.972.233.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.315.1-28.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.132.911.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.573.27.1
– Net Position:149,785-169,00819,223
– Gross Longs:168,470138,08849,137
– Gross Shorts:18,685307,09629,914
– Long to Short Ratio:9.0 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.37.832.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-7.73.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.030.611.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.150.412.2
– Net Position:66,228-62,823-3,405
– Gross Longs:117,24996,72035,368
– Gross Shorts:51,021159,54338,773
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.427.270.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.3-10.51.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.336.711.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.837.012.5
– Net Position:3,166-682-2,484
– Gross Longs:66,93875,92723,357
– Gross Shorts:63,77276,60925,841
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.496.995.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.827.747.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.648.56.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.058.05.3
– Net Position:17,833-19,6791,846
– Gross Longs:61,599100,98112,918
– Gross Shorts:43,766120,66011,072
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.979.222.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-3.49.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.147.34.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.657.22.9
– Net Position:24,941-28,9784,037
– Gross Longs:90,986138,39412,460
– Gross Shorts:66,045167,3728,423
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.558.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.6-2.36.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.340.79.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.126.310.3
– Net Position:-48,32050,423-2,103
– Gross Longs:88,787142,42233,981
– Gross Shorts:137,10791,99936,084
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.099.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.68.24.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
21 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Wheat bets to lowest in 192-weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (38,078 contracts) with Soybeans (28,737 contracts), Soybean Meal (8,640 contracts) and Cocoa (477 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Coffee (-12,006 contracts), Lean Hogs (-9,862 contracts), Cotton (-9,991 contracts), Sugar (-1,015 contracts), Wheat (-2,298 contracts), Soybean Oil (-2,604 contracts) and Live Cattle (-5,851 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued declines in the Wheat speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Wheat fell this week for a second consecutive week and for the twelfth time in the past fifteen weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Wheat (currently at -42,014 contracts) to the most bearish level in the past 192 weeks, dating back to May 14th of 2019.

Wheat prices have been under pressure as well with prices trading at near the lowest levels since 2021. Helping to keep Wheat sentiment and prices down have been better than expected plantings and supply of Wheat in the USA and globally.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-17-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,613,46619239,2189-255,5999216,38126
Corn1,251,0338271,87365-213,79841-58,07511
Natural Gas1,082,45824-177,21925146,4187730,80153
Sugar898,52637186,69858-233,1443646,44665
Soybeans651,32817169,06564-130,79048-38,2756
Gold491,81822153,24034-175,9136522,67337
Wheat340,83023-42,014045,261100-3,24794
Heating Oil269,9112418,50670-40,6122822,10675
Coffee224,82931-26,745024,2511002,49434
Copper201,4554216,23849-22,695496,45763
Brent147,1729-25,9806223,414372,56644
Silver131,862931,46849-45,3675213,89940
Platinum71,1444123,54441-28,913595,36940
Palladium8,79916-2,751122,90286-15133

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (65 percent), Soybeans (64 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (0 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and the Lean Hogs (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (59.9 percent)
Sugar (58.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.5 percent)
Coffee (0.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (12.3 percent)
Soybeans (63.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (43.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (96.0 percent)
Live Cattle (72.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (79.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (15.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (27.7 percent)
Cotton (13.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.9 percent)
Cocoa (44.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (43.8 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.2 percent)

 

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (25 percent) and Live Cattle (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (20 percent), Cocoa (10 percent) and Corn (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-12 percent), Cotton (-8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (9.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-4.7 percent)
Sugar (1.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.0 percent)
Coffee (-12.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-0.1 percent)
Soybeans (25.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-4.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (25.7 percent)
Live Cattle (23.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (32.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-27.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-11.8 percent)
Cotton (-8.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (1.0 percent)
Cocoa (9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (17.3 percent)
Wheat (-2.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 271,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 233,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.144.79.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.461.714.1
– Net Position:271,873-213,798-58,075
– Gross Longs:376,732558,706118,719
– Gross Shorts:104,859772,504176,794
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.841.511.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-8.0-11.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 186,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,713 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.543.110.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.769.05.0
– Net Position:186,698-233,14446,446
– Gross Longs:273,666387,18691,248
– Gross Shorts:86,968620,33044,802
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.136.365.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-2.04.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,006 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.955.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.844.23.7
– Net Position:-26,74524,2512,494
– Gross Longs:44,803123,56510,878
– Gross Shorts:71,54899,3148,384
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.034.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.411.310.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 169,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,328 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.3 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.346.46.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.366.412.5
– Net Position:169,065-130,790-38,275
– Gross Longs:216,831301,98543,462
– Gross Shorts:47,766432,77581,737
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.948.36.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.4-23.0-14.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,495 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.849.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.068.86.3
– Net Position:59,495-71,07711,582
– Gross Longs:89,394187,76235,188
– Gross Shorts:29,899258,83923,606
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.855.556.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.74.9-3.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 166,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 8,640 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,710 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.730.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.675.06.7
– Net Position:166,350-186,13319,783
– Gross Longs:181,071124,54947,680
– Gross Shorts:14,721310,68227,897
– Long to Short Ratio:12.3 to 10.4 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.035.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.5-20.31.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 79,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.230.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.751.612.5
– Net Position:74,143-67,709-6,434
– Gross Longs:126,73795,03532,866
– Gross Shorts:52,594162,74439,300
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.320.564.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.7-21.5-13.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 15,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.637.510.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.643.013.1
– Net Position:15,907-10,939-4,968
– Gross Longs:63,07374,84221,157
– Gross Shorts:47,16685,78126,125
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.884.280.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.821.632.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,991 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.950.76.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.955.45.6
– Net Position:7,953-9,3821,429
– Gross Longs:56,634103,14612,734
– Gross Shorts:48,681112,52811,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.386.419.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.27.9-3.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.945.54.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.855.83.1
– Net Position:27,698-31,1553,457
– Gross Longs:97,065138,39413,026
– Gross Shorts:69,367169,5499,569
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.256.631.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-9.4-2.9

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.441.69.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.728.410.6
– Net Position:-42,01445,261-3,247
– Gross Longs:86,569141,95632,942
– Gross Shorts:128,58396,69536,189
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.093.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.02.8-1.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
14 Jan

Live Cattle leads Soft Commodities Speculator bets while Corn & Sugar bets fall

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (9,505 contracts) with Cotton (1,485 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,142 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-40,779 contracts), Corn (-33,737 contracts), Coffee (-13,927 contracts), Lean Hogs (-17,857 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,591 contracts), Soybeans (-8,311 contracts), Wheat (-7,425 contracts) and Cocoa (-617 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Live Cattle speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Live Cattle gained this week for a third consecutive week and for the sixth time over the past seven weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Live Cattle (currently at +79,994 contracts) to the highest level in the past forty-six weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022.

The Live Cattle futures prices have continued to trade in a sustained uptrend with prices closing higher in each of the past seven months. Recently, the Live Cattle futures front month price touched its highest level since 2015 with a high right below the $160 level.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-10-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,557,09214205,2360-225,50210020,26633
Corn1,214,8174233,79560-182,61146-51,18416
Natural Gas1,070,38622-172,50327143,5067628,99749
Sugar905,83939187,71358-232,5093644,79663
Soybeans620,65910140,32855-104,16657-36,16210
Gold481,51916150,53533-172,4786621,94335
Wheat334,53820-39,716043,529100-3,81391
Heating Oil260,8452016,76967-35,0353418,26662
Coffee210,16919-14,739211,310963,42947
Copper186,3832910,22744-16,253546,02660
Brent140,3914-26,2096222,463353,74660
Silver129,961729,01346-42,9255513,91240
Platinum72,2164330,70250-34,346533,64417
Palladium8,35212-2,490112,3378515351

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Live Cattle (80 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (60 percent), Sugar (58 percent) and Soybeans (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Cotton (21 percent) and the Lean Hogs (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (59.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.2 percent)
Sugar (58.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (72.5 percent)
Coffee (1.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (54.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (57.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (51.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (99.4 percent)
Live Cattle (79.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (27.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (49.3 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.8 percent)
Cocoa (43.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.4 percent)
Wheat (0.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (7.5 percent)

 

Live Cattle & Soybean Meal top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (17 percent), Cocoa (17 percent) and Sugar (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-12 percent), Wheat (-6 percent) and Corn (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-4.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (2.4 percent)
Sugar (3.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (13.9 percent)
Coffee (-0.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybeans (17.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-19.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (26.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (26.8 percent)
Live Cattle (32.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (-11.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-0.1 percent)
Cotton (1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-1.0 percent)
Cocoa (17.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (12.4 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-4.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 233,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,737 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 267,532 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.446.29.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.261.213.8
– Net Position:233,795-182,611-51,184
– Gross Longs:332,822561,153116,990
– Gross Shorts:99,027743,764168,174
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.945.915.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.76.9-8.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 187,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -40,779 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 228,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.344.19.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.669.85.0
– Net Position:187,713-232,50944,796
– Gross Longs:274,296399,81890,034
– Gross Shorts:86,583632,32745,238
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.536.563.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.0-2.81.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.251.85.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.246.43.9
– Net Position:-14,73911,3103,429
– Gross Longs:48,809108,90011,598
– Gross Shorts:63,54897,5908,169
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.796.247.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.1-2.634.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 140,328 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 148,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.348.76.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.765.512.8
– Net Position:140,328-104,166-36,162
– Gross Longs:187,837302,21742,977
– Gross Shorts:47,509406,38379,139
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.757.09.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-13.8-17.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 62,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.549.18.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.868.26.4
– Net Position:62,099-71,3569,257
– Gross Longs:91,252183,26333,103
– Gross Shorts:29,153254,61923,846
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.655.348.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.728.6-14.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 157,710 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,142 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 156,568 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.031.911.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.476.06.3
– Net Position:157,710-180,58022,870
– Gross Longs:171,785130,28048,473
– Gross Shorts:14,075310,86025,603
– Long to Short Ratio:12.2 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.051.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.8-27.415.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 79,994 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.027.510.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.150.112.7
– Net Position:79,994-72,962-7,032
– Gross Longs:132,02988,51133,907
– Gross Shorts:52,035161,47340,939
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.713.364.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.5-28.0-21.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.1 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.336.910.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.747.113.3
– Net Position:25,769-19,358-6,411
– Gross Longs:65,14670,04218,949
– Gross Shorts:39,37789,40025,360
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.773.872.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.87.621.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,485 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,459 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.849.66.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.959.55.7
– Net Position:17,944-19,9361,992
– Gross Longs:58,10499,88613,474
– Gross Shorts:40,160119,82211,482
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.979.023.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-1.22.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -617 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.644.44.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.554.93.2
– Net Position:27,221-31,1993,978
– Gross Longs:94,218132,10913,616
– Gross Shorts:66,997163,3089,638
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.856.636.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.3-17.73.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,716 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,425 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,291 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.042.110.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.929.111.2
– Net Position:-39,71643,529-3,813
– Gross Longs:87,085140,76333,599
– Gross Shorts:126,80197,23437,412
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.2100.090.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.6-0.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
13 Jan

Global economy 2023: why there will still be plenty of pressure on food prices in the year ahead

By John Hammond, University of Reading and Yiorgos Gadanakis, University of Reading 

Welcome to this special report on the food industry, the fourth instalment in our series on where the global economy is heading in 2023. It follows recent articles on inflation, energy and the cost of living.

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the closely watched food price index of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reached its highest recorded level, stoking consumer prices across the world. In the UK, for example, the prices of many everyday items increased way ahead of inflation, with bread and eggs both up 18% in the year to December, and milk up 30%.

Such rises threatened food security, particularly in low and middle-income countries that rely heavily on Ukraine and Russia for grains and plant oils. That included many countries in Africa and Asia, which took 95% of Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2021 (roughly a tenth of the world supply).

Global food price inflation

Graph showing annual global food price inflation
Source: FAO.

This prompted much talk in the media about the potential for famine. Yet nearly a year after the invasion, the FAO food price index has returned to pre-invasion levels.

So why has pressure on prices reduced, and what are the prospects for the year ahead?

What happened in practice

You can’t look at food in isolation from COVID. Many people in the energy and food industries were either too ill to work or prevented from doing so because of pandemic restrictions, which squeezed supplies. When the world opened up and demand began to rise, food and energy prices went up too.

This made people particularly vulnerable to events in Ukraine. Once the war began, food-price inflation peaked because the markets were uncertain about whether production and exports would be hit, and how global supply chains would adapt.

Ukraine’s grain exports resumed after a UN deal was brokered in July to create a humanitarian corridor through the Black Sea. It also helped that the wheat harvest was larger than expected, even if large areas around the front line remain unharvested. Much of Ukraine’s corn has not been harvested either, for the additional reason that the drying process is energy intensive and farmers struggled to afford the raised prices. Overall, Ukraine’s grain exports were down in 2022 by about 30% year on year.

Russia is normally an even bigger exporter of wheat than Ukraine, supplying about 15% of world demand. It’s harder to see what has happened to these supplies because the Russians stopped providing data, but certainly Moscow’s policy of only dealing with “friendly” countries will have affected availability for many countries too.

Countries that rely heavily on Ukrainian/Russian grains have been forced to shop elsewhere. For example Yemen and Egypt have imported more grain from India and the EU, paying higher prices than usual.

Several additional pressures on farmers have further squeezed the global food supply. Fertiliser prices have rocketed in the past two years. Russia, an important global supplier, has been stockpiling for domestic use. Elsewhere, heightened energy prices have squeezed output. In the UK, the largest nitrogen-fertiliser facility suspended production during 2022. Average fertiliser prices for UK farmers are now 18% higher than the winter before the Ukraine invasion, and 66% higher than two years ago.

Extreme weather in summer 2022 was another problem, including heatwaves and drought in northern Europe, America and China, flooding in Pakistan and drought in Argentina. Irrigation has become more difficult in areas that depend on it, while in Europe drought conditions have reduced the supply of crops for animal feed and harvest of grass for silage. Meat and vegetable prices have both gone up as a result.

According to the UN’s World Food Programme, the overall effect of inflation, war and extreme weather has been that many people around the world have had their access to food restricted. The number of people facing severe food insecurity is up 20% since the war began.

The outlook

Wholesale gas and oil prices have at least declined from their 2022 highs, which will benefit the entire food supply chain. This is one reason why inflation eased slightly in the autumn in many countries.

Oil and gas prices

Chart showing oil and gas prices
Brent crude = blue, UK natural gas = orange.
Trading View

This will have taken some of the heat out of the global food price index. Cereals, meats and particularly vegetable oil prices all fell towards the end of the year, though sugar and dairy prices went in the opposite direction. Overall food price inflation remains historically high.

For the year ahead, the area of crops planted in Ukraine is estimated to be 17% down on 2022. Farmers in other countries are planting more wheat and maize to compensate, though the overall supply will still be pressured by higher farming costs and potentially more extreme weather.

Fertiliser prices will probably stay high as supplies remain restricted. Farmers in wealthier countries may keep applying normal quantities to their crops, like on previous periods of raised prices. But in poorer countries they may cut back, threatening yields and quality and exposing smallholder communities to greater food insecurity.

In sum, many staples will likely remain in tight supply in 2023, meaning price pressures continue. Retailers will be forced to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. Governments will have to consider how to both support struggling consumers but also farmers to maximise what they produce.

At the international level, there needs to be an urgent fertiliser supply agreement to minimise disruptions, prioritising access for vulnerable communities in developing countries. Longer term, farming needs to reduce its dependency on fertilisers by developing agricultural practices that optimise the cycling of nutrients.

This includes more efficient use of manures and extracting nutrients from sewage, and using more legume crops in rotations to take advantage of the fact that they enhance nutrients in the soil. There also needs to be more precision farming techniques to target resources within fields to where they will be used most efficiently.

These practices are well adopted in western countries, but other parts of the world lag behind – particularly developing countries. Fertilisers will always be part of the farming system, but we’ll make food production more sustainable if we can get these things right.

This article is part of Global Economy 2023, our series about the challenges facing the world in the year ahead. You might also like our Global Economy Newsletter, which you can subscribe to here.The Conversation

John Hammond, Professor of Crop Science, University of Reading and Yiorgos Gadanakis, Associate Professor of Agricultural Business Management, University of Reading

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
07 Jan

Weekly COT Soft Commodities Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (32,399 contracts) with Soybeans (15,120 contracts), Soybean Meal (9,695 contracts), Wheat (3,998 contracts), Live Cattle (3,288 contracts), Coffee (1,892 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,376 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-17,938 contracts), Cocoa (-3,065 contracts), Cotton (-3,250 contracts) and Lean Hogs (-1,087 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-03-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,459,9366227,6074-249,0409721,43335
Corn1,221,4344267,53264-217,11741-50,41516
Natural Gas1,031,18215-169,81328142,1427627,67146
Sugar940,02145228,49272-273,4972545,00563
Soybeans603,6097148,63957-111,32955-37,3108
Gold449,3937141,66630-159,9747018,30826
Wheat331,57719-32,291737,63694-5,34583
Heating Oil252,2051716,61367-34,0313517,41859
Coffee187,7673-81218-641831,45320
Copper164,59413-4,67533-163674,83853
Brent139,6874-26,5146123,081363,43356
Silver131,990930,93448-44,2115313,27737
Platinum69,6873830,50350-33,157542,6544
Palladium8,45612-2,542102,4228712049

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (72 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent), Corn (64 percent) and Soybeans (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (7 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Cotton (19.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Cocoa (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.1 percent)
Sugar (72.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (78.7 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (15.5 percent)
Soybeans (57.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (52.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (51.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (95.3 percent)
Live Cattle (67.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (63.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (49.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (37.4 percent)
Cotton (19.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (44.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (2.9 percent)

 

Soybean Meal & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Meal (27 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Live Cattle (19 percent), Coffee (18 percent) and Sugar (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-5 percent) and Cotton (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (2.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-2.3 percent)
Sugar (13.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.0 percent)
Coffee (17.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.2 percent)
Soybeans (25.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-24.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (18.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (-0.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-8.5 percent)
Cotton (-1.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.3 percent)
Cocoa (12.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (5.0 percent)
Wheat (-4.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-19.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 267,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 235,133 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.444.49.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.562.113.7
– Net Position:267,532-217,117-50,415
– Gross Longs:359,493541,890117,043
– Gross Shorts:91,961759,007167,458
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.241.015.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.4-0.2-11.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 228,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -17,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 246,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.640.510.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.369.65.2
– Net Position:228,492-273,49745,005
– Gross Longs:325,685381,08693,920
– Gross Shorts:97,193654,58348,915
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.524.763.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.9-10.7-3.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,892 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,704 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.751.45.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.151.74.2
– Net Position:-812-6411,453
– Gross Longs:46,41196,4239,429
– Gross Shorts:47,22397,0647,976
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.783.119.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.7-16.90.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 148,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,120 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 133,519 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.447.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.765.513.2
– Net Position:148,639-111,329-37,310
– Gross Longs:195,320284,33542,635
– Gross Shorts:46,681395,66479,945
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.354.67.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.1-21.7-19.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,690 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,314 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.447.78.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.669.26.0
– Net Position:70,690-80,69710,007
– Gross Longs:99,018178,65332,575
– Gross Shorts:28,328259,35022,568
– Long to Short Ratio:3.5 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.549.550.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.819.2-6.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 156,568 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.134.910.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.478.45.6
– Net Position:156,568-175,97019,402
– Gross Longs:170,218141,31342,222
– Gross Shorts:13,650317,28322,820
– Long to Short Ratio:12.5 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.033.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-26.2-4.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 70,489 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,288 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,201 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.829.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.648.311.3
– Net Position:70,489-63,397-7,092
– Gross Longs:129,12897,35330,372
– Gross Shorts:58,639160,75037,464
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.726.564.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.8-14.7-16.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 43,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,087 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,795 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.136.27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.052.914.0
– Net Position:43,626-31,671-11,955
– Gross Longs:73,83368,29514,524
– Gross Shorts:30,20799,96626,479
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.358.639.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.11.1-4.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 16,459 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.950.26.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.659.16.0
– Net Position:16,459-17,6851,226
– Gross Longs:59,17899,29213,198
– Gross Shorts:42,719116,97711,972
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.880.618.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.80.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 27,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.443.54.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.554.93.2
– Net Position:27,838-31,9784,140
– Gross Longs:87,974121,84412,987
– Gross Shorts:60,136153,8228,847
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.455.838.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.4-13.17.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -32,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.542.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.331.510.8
– Net Position:-32,29137,636-5,345
– Gross Longs:84,689141,96230,370
– Gross Shorts:116,980104,32635,715
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.593.882.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.78.3-11.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
17 Dec

Soft Commodities Speculators boost Soybean Meal bullish bets to 236-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybeans & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybeans (23,398 contracts) with Corn (13,855 contracts), Soybean Meal (11,358 contracts), Sugar (9,927 contracts) with Cocoa (5,353 contracts), Coffee (5,172 contracts) and Live Cattle (3,552 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-10,669 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-5,281 contracts), Cotton (-4,281 contracts) and Wheat (-21 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued gain in the Soybean Meal speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Soybean Meal rose this week for a third consecutive week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks. Speculators bets have now pushed the overall net position standing for Soybean Meal (currently at +133,532 contracts) to the highest level in the past two-hundred and thirty-six weeks, dating back to June 5th of 2018.

Soybean Meal futures prices dipped this week despite the continued strong sentiment. The Soybean Meal futures price had previously gained for three straight weeks and hit the highest price level since March above the 470.0 threshold. The futures price closed out the week right around the 460.0 support/resistance area.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-13-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,450,4824229,5595-247,7479718,18829
Corn1,205,2590212,23057-173,22347-39,00721
Natural Gas996,8239-153,68132129,9607223,72136
Sugar899,77738193,05160-228,5933835,54252
Soybeans638,74414113,05946-82,01164-31,04819
Gold437,0404125,64924-138,5297612,88012
Wheat335,35421-39,918042,894100-2,97695
Heating Oil270,7512417,30868-32,7713615,46352
Coffee198,70211-9,47088,451931,01914
Copper162,191112,55638-6,559624,00348
Brent148,09710-28,5676225,351363,21653
Silver125,555422,81939-35,8066112,98733
Platinum72,4164328,44547-32,624554,17924
Palladium7,4948-88320854772943

 

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Sugar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (100 percent) and Sugar (60 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (57 percent), Live Cattle (53 percent) and Soybeans (46 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Coffee (8 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score this week was Lean Hogs (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (57.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (55.4 percent)
Sugar (60.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (56.9 percent)
Coffee (7.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (45.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (38.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (41.2 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (48.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (100.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (93.8 percent)
Live Cattle (53.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (37.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (18.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.5 percent)
Cocoa (39.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (34.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (0.0 percent)

 

Sugar & Cocoa top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (43 percent) and Cocoa (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (9 percent) and Soybean Meal (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Oil (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-24 percent), Corn (-16 percent) and Lean Hogs (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-16.8 percent)
Sugar (42.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (24.5 percent)
Coffee (-13.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-29.9 percent)
Soybeans (8.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-28.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-18.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (3.3 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-11.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (-14.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-1.8 percent)
Cotton (-1.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.6 percent)
Cocoa (31.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (19.3 percent)
Wheat (-23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.4 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 212,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 198,375 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.247.310.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.661.713.4
– Net Position:212,230-173,223-39,007
– Gross Longs:316,184570,199122,422
– Gross Shorts:103,954743,422161,429
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.147.221.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.416.28.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 193,051 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 183,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.044.610.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.670.06.2
– Net Position:193,051-228,59335,542
– Gross Longs:288,052401,48891,410
– Gross Shorts:95,001630,08155,868
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.337.651.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:42.6-39.717.4

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -9,470 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.553.04.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.248.74.0
– Net Position:-9,4708,4511,019
– Gross Longs:44,628105,2408,917
– Gross Shorts:54,09896,7897,898
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.793.113.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.413.9-13.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 113,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 23,398 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,661 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.050.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.363.612.4
– Net Position:113,059-82,011-31,048
– Gross Longs:172,330324,12648,054
– Gross Shorts:59,271406,13779,102
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.964.118.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.5-7.8-4.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -10,669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.249.58.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.766.25.5
– Net Position:55,642-68,52912,887
– Gross Longs:95,349203,43335,470
– Gross Shorts:39,707271,96222,583
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.257.161.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.526.7-4.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 133,532 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,358 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 122,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.836.212.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:3.875.07.5
– Net Position:133,532-152,14118,609
– Gross Longs:148,357142,14947,862
– Gross Shorts:14,825294,29029,253
– Long to Short Ratio:10.0 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.03.829.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-3.6-37.0

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 58,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,552 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.732.911.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.851.512.2
– Net Position:58,815-55,162-3,653
– Gross Longs:114,47997,37832,476
– Gross Shorts:55,664152,54036,129
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.137.778.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.87.4-2.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,627 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.536.67.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.549.013.1
– Net Position:33,627-23,073-10,554
– Gross Longs:69,91068,31213,877
– Gross Shorts:36,28391,38524,431
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.269.244.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.413.26.9

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.349.56.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.057.05.9
– Net Position:14,439-14,822383
– Gross Longs:62,06998,28612,021
– Gross Shorts:47,630113,10811,638
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.382.612.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.30.92.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 23,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,353 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,964 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.946.54.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.156.53.0
– Net Position:23,317-26,6693,352
– Gross Longs:84,900123,82511,260
– Gross Shorts:61,583150,4947,908
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.961.130.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.2-32.29.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.140.99.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.028.210.6
– Net Position:-39,91842,894-2,976
– Gross Longs:94,335137,31632,455
– Gross Shorts:134,25394,42235,431
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.095.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.724.019.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
10 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Speculators drop Corn bullish bets to 19-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Soybean Meal (19,835 contracts) with Cocoa (8,266 contracts), Sugar (4,089 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,409 contracts), Soybeans (2,453 contracts), Cotton (2,140 contracts) and Live Cattle (1,229 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Corn (-71,867 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-37,543 contracts), Wheat (-6,592 contracts) and Coffee (-6 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the recent drop in Corn‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Corn decreased sharply this week and by the largest one-week amount since 2018 with a -71,867 contract decline. Overall, Corn bets have now fallen by -142,413 net speculator contracts in just the past five weeks, going from a total of +340,788 contracts on November 1st to a total of +198,375 contracts this week. This week’s total is the least bullish level in the past nineteen weeks, dating back to July 26th.

Corn futures prices have been in retreat since peaking in April of this year as the front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over 644’0. This is down almost 20 percent from the April peak, however, Corn does remain in an uptrend on the weekly charts.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-06-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,436,7283231,7206-259,5539427,83345
Corn1,232,3071198,37555-157,53649-40,83920
Natural Gas1,010,47911-164,03729135,6067428,43148
Sugar881,38834183,12457-226,0663842,94261
Soybeans622,2001189,66138-59,88271-29,77921
Gold422,1000115,12521-130,0797914,95417
Wheat334,76021-39,897042,820100-2,92395
Heating Oil257,1581922,82876-39,5062916,67856
Coffee203,29614-14,642212,907981,73524
Copper158,76291,67938-4,354642,67541
Brent144,1477-28,1186423,746334,37268
Silver122,558119,20835-32,2626513,05433
Platinum68,8213725,63644-30,148584,51229
Palladium7,7859-1,372161,2268114650

 

Soybean Meal  tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) leads the soft commodity markets and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Sugar (56.9 percent) and Corn (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent) and Coffee (1.8 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in an Extreme-Bearish position (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.6 percent)
Sugar (56.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (55.5 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (1.8 percent)
Soybeans (38.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (37.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (95.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (84.5 percent)
Live Cattle (48.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (47.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.1 percent)
Cotton (21.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.9 percent)
Cocoa (34.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.4 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.5 percent)

Sugar leads the 6-Week Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Sugar (24.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Cocoa (19.3 percent), Soybeans (10.3 percent) and Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-29.9 percent) and Wheat (-26.4 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week. The next markets with lower trend scores were Corn (-16.8 percent), Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) and Cotton (-4.6 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-16.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-5.4 percent)
Sugar (24.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.1 percent)
Coffee (-29.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-38.9 percent)
Soybeans (10.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.5 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (18.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (1.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-11.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (15.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-1.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (9.6 percent)
Cotton (-4.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.2 percent)
Cocoa (19.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.5 percent)
Wheat (-26.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-29.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 198,375 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -71,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 270,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.648.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.561.213.2
– Net Position:198,375-157,536-40,839
– Gross Longs:315,270597,177121,431
– Gross Shorts:116,895754,713162,270
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.449.520.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.816.59.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 183,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,089 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 179,035 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.145.010.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.370.65.5
– Net Position:183,124-226,06642,942
– Gross Longs:282,673396,31791,614
– Gross Shorts:99,549622,38348,672
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.938.360.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.5-24.718.1

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.954.84.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.148.43.8
– Net Position:-14,64212,9071,735
– Gross Longs:40,476111,3659,524
– Gross Shorts:55,11898,4587,789
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.898.023.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.928.8-3.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 89,661 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.851.37.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.460.912.1
– Net Position:89,661-59,882-29,779
– Gross Longs:160,518319,12045,508
– Gross Shorts:70,857379,00275,287
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.571.320.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.3-8.0-13.1

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,543 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.547.08.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.365.25.6
– Net Position:66,311-78,86712,556
– Gross Longs:106,474204,19336,717
– Gross Shorts:40,163283,06024,161
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.550.660.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.517.0-0.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 122,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 19,835 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.037.912.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.674.47.3
– Net Position:122,174-141,76119,587
– Gross Longs:140,034147,25147,971
– Gross Shorts:17,860289,01228,384
– Long to Short Ratio:7.8 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.59.234.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-0.3-28.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,263 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,229 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.332.811.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.450.612.3
– Net Position:55,263-52,026-3,237
– Gross Longs:108,91295,85132,667
– Gross Shorts:53,649147,87735,904
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.742.079.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.113.3-3.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,908 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,499 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.135.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.849.912.6
– Net Position:38,908-28,396-10,512
– Gross Longs:76,84967,37613,694
– Gross Shorts:37,94195,77224,206
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.962.542.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.72.4-2.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,720 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,140 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.247.26.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.657.85.3
– Net Position:18,720-20,6581,938
– Gross Longs:64,80792,04712,243
– Gross Shorts:46,087112,70510,305
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.578.522.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.63.56.6

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,964 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,266 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.447.44.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.555.83.1
– Net Position:17,964-21,7133,749
– Gross Longs:83,808122,38311,758
– Gross Shorts:65,844144,0968,009
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.666.034.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.3-21.117.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.2 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.640.610.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.527.811.1
– Net Position:-39,89742,820-2,923
– Gross Longs:95,846135,85734,182
– Gross Shorts:135,74393,03737,105
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.095.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.427.021.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
03 Dec

Soft Commodity Speculators drop Cotton bets for 12th time in 13 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn  & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other six markets had decreases in contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (21,477 contracts) with Soybeans (16,969 contracts), Soybean Oil (4,333 contracts), Coffee (1,550 contracts) and Soybean Meal (1,269 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The softs market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Sugar (-8,927 contracts) with Lean Hogs (-8,233 contracts), Wheat (-5,787 contracts), Cocoa (-5,586 contracts), Live Cattle (-1,481 contracts) and Cotton (-1,143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the continued decline in Cotton‘s speculator positioning. The large speculator bets for Cotton have declined for three straight weeks and in twelve out of the past thirteen weeks. Overall, Cotton bets have dropped by a total of -35,187 contracts in the past thirteen weeks going from a standing of +51,767 total net contracts on August 30th to just +16,580 total net contracts this week.

Cotton futures prices have been in sharp retreat since late-August as well. The front-month futures price settled on Friday at just over $83.00 which is down almost 30 percent from August 30th. Cotton prices are also down by approximately 47 percent from the 2022 high-point reached in early May at over $155.95.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-29-2022
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,412,1211239,7398-262,6549322,91537
Corn1,226,4100270,24265-231,16939-39,07321
Natural Gas985,0107-163,42930136,1917427,23845
Sugar876,30934179,03556-222,6073943,57262
Soybeans634,7541387,20840-61,55168-25,65728
Gold433,6611110,00319-119,233829,2303
Wheat310,66710-33,305037,024100-3,71991
Heating Oil266,8292330,73388-48,2552017,52259
Coffee196,3659-14,636213,6959994112
Brent155,50015-32,0875729,424422,66345
Copper146,76001,98438-3,362641,37833
Silver121,258017,48333-28,9976811,51426
Platinum66,4683324,25942-28,762604,50328
Palladium7,5378-1,631141,68784-5638

 

Soybean Meal tops Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) and Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) lead the soft commodity markets with Soybean Meal residing in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Corn (64.6 percent) and Sugar (55.6 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets in strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0.0 percent), Coffee (1.8 percent) and Cotton (19.9 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are all in bearish extreme levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (64.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (61.8 percent)
Sugar (55.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.6 percent)
Coffee (1.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (40.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (71.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (84.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (83.7 percent)
Live Cattle (47.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (49.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (45.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.4 percent)
Cotton (19.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (20.8 percent)
Cocoa (26.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (32.0 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (6.1 percent)

 

Strength Trends led Soybean Oil & Sugar

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) and Sugar (18.1 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets this week. Live Cattle (15.5 percent), Soybeans (10.0 percent) and Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-38.9 percent), Wheat (-31.2 percent) and Cotton (-12.2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-5.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-9.8 percent)
Sugar (18.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.8 percent)
Coffee (-38.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-65.2 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (4.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (1.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (15.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (19.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (9.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (26.8 percent)
Cotton (-12.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-13.9 percent)
Cocoa (-1.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.6 percent)
Wheat (-31.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 270,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 21,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 248,765 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.445.110.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.363.913.2
– Net Position:270,242-231,169-39,073
– Gross Longs:360,350552,816122,723
– Gross Shorts:90,108783,985161,796
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.639.020.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.42.613.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 179,035 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,927 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187,962 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.7 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.345.210.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.870.65.8
– Net Position:179,035-222,60743,572
– Gross Longs:282,793396,43394,194
– Gross Shorts:103,758619,04050,622
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.639.361.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-16.66.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,636 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.256.04.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.749.14.1
– Net Position:-14,63613,695941
– Gross Longs:35,834110,0259,075
– Gross Shorts:50,47096,3308,134
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.898.812.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.938.8-20.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 16,969 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.850.87.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.160.511.9
– Net Position:87,208-61,551-25,657
– Gross Longs:151,317322,23149,683
– Gross Shorts:64,109383,78275,340
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.167.727.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-9.6-2.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 103,854 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.841.27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.467.54.6
– Net Position:103,854-116,88913,035
– Gross Longs:136,812183,31533,560
– Gross Shorts:32,958300,20420,525
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.326.862.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-15.9-8.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 102,339 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,070 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.1 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.140.411.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.473.46.5
– Net Position:102,339-122,24719,908
– Gross Longs:122,479149,13943,937
– Gross Shorts:20,140271,38624,029
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.519.436.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.8-0.1-15.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,515 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.733.111.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.051.212.0
– Net Position:54,034-52,522-1,512
– Gross Longs:106,26595,83833,215
– Gross Shorts:52,231148,36034,727
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.141.486.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-14.3-7.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 35,499 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.035.47.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.748.613.1
– Net Position:35,499-25,480-10,019
– Gross Longs:73,57368,58615,357
– Gross Shorts:38,07494,06625,376
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.463.444.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.2-6.5-15.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 16,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.647.86.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.157.15.7
– Net Position:16,580-18,1721,592
– Gross Longs:63,35292,85412,743
– Gross Shorts:46,772111,02611,151
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.980.320.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.211.2-0.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,586 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,284 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.147.74.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.452.83.0
– Net Position:9,698-13,3223,624
– Gross Longs:80,762123,63911,404
– Gross Shorts:71,064136,9617,780
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.474.332.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.5-0.924.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,787 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.342.110.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.030.211.4
– Net Position:-33,30537,024-3,719
– Gross Longs:87,807130,93831,815
– Gross Shorts:121,11293,91435,534
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.091.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.233.517.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
← Previous Page
Next Page →