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Archive for Soft Commodities

05 Apr

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Brent, 5-Year & Wheat top Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on April 1st.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as the Live Cattle speculator level rose to a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 14.8 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 123,646 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,659 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brent Oil


The Brent Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week after a spot at the 6th most bullish last week. The Brent Oil speculator level is now at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 49.2 this week showing a sharp move higher. The speculator position registered -2,843 net contracts this week with a weekly boost by 3,685 contracts in speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings after topping the list last week. The Japanese Yen speculator level resides at a 96.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 19.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 121,774 net contracts with a decline of -3,602 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes up number four (same as last week) in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is currently at a 88.5 percent score over its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a small gain of 3.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 57,258 net contracts this week with a dip by -3,692 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level currently sits at a 87.4 percent score over its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a strong 34.3 this week.

The speculator position totaled 37,035 net contracts this week with a reduction by -3,314 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing again this week as the 5-Year Bond speculator level dropped to a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -2,021,677 net contracts this week with a drop of -121,590 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat


The Wheat speculator position comes in tied for the most bearish extreme standing on the week with the Wheat speculator level now at 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was strong -50.2 this week. The speculator position totaled -102,800 net contracts this week with a decrease by -20,252 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal


The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 5.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week while the overall speculator position was -54,300 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,022 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Cotton speculator level is at a 12.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a modest -3.0 this week while the speculator position totaled -41,979 net contracts with a rise by 12,027 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for a second straight week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is currently at a 12.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was a positive 8.2 this week. The speculator position was a total of -45,048 net contracts with a decrease by -3,481 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities
05 Apr

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 1st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil, Cotton & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week (through Tuesday) as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (35,433 contracts) with Cotton (12,027 contracts), Soybeans (10,898 contracts), Live Cattle (5,659 contracts), Lean Hogs (1,088 contracts), Sugar (1,031 contracts) and Cocoa (323 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-33,502 contracts), Wheat (-20,252 contracts), Soybean Meal (-5,022 contracts) and Coffee (-4,389 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (100 percent) and Coffee (78 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (56 percent) and Lean Hogs (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Wheat (0 percent), Soybean Meal (5 percent) and Cotton (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (60.7 percent)
Sugar (27.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (27.2 percent)
Coffee (78.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (82.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (45.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (48.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (28.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (5.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (7.2 percent)
Live Cattle (100.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (94.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (51.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.6 percent)
Cotton (12.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (4.9 percent)
Cocoa (28.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (28.6 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (24 percent) and Live Cattle (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybeans (1 percent) are the next highest and the only other positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-39 percent), Corn (-39 percent) and Soybean Oil (-28 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-39.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.2 percent)
Sugar (23.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.1 percent)
Coffee (-7.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.1 percent)
Soybeans (0.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-5.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-27.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-43.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-13.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-14.5 percent)
Live Cattle (14.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (-38.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-33.8 percent)
Cotton (-3.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-7.0 percent)
Cocoa (-9.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-8.7 percent)
Wheat (-50.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-20.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 166,869 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -33,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 200,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.042.76.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.148.69.8
– Net Position:166,869-111,384-55,485
– Gross Longs:412,771801,895128,660
– Gross Shorts:245,902913,279184,145
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.446.741.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-39.336.041.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 53,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,031 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,042 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.849.48.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.957.45.9
– Net Position:53,073-71,58318,510
– Gross Longs:212,886441,58271,472
– Gross Shorts:159,813513,16552,962
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.671.343.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.6-22.612.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 54,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.136.95.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.768.93.7
– Net Position:54,063-56,6632,600
– Gross Longs:67,66965,5499,234
– Gross Shorts:13,606122,2126,634
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.322.961.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.47.7-8.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,512 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,898 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.652.95.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.049.97.6
– Net Position:-3,51225,581-22,069
– Gross Longs:158,653451,51443,113
– Gross Shorts:162,165425,93365,182
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.352.854.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-3.125.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 35,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.452.95.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.455.64.6
– Net Position:12,084-16,3384,254
– Gross Longs:127,743315,80631,759
– Gross Shorts:115,659332,14427,505
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.154.830.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.728.0-23.4

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -54,300 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,022 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.950.08.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.944.35.2
– Net Position:-54,30034,38219,918
– Gross Longs:108,052301,21151,126
– Gross Shorts:162,352266,82931,208
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.191.345.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.413.0-0.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 123,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,987 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.326.27.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.850.414.2
– Net Position:123,646-97,973-25,673
– Gross Longs:200,105106,51131,867
– Gross Shorts:76,459204,48457,540
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.03.07.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-15.1-9.7

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 30,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,088 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.436.76.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.446.67.8
– Net Position:30,477-27,410-3,067
– Gross Longs:94,942101,26418,487
– Gross Shorts:64,465128,67421,554
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.447.359.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.940.814.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,027 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.449.65.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.936.04.1
– Net Position:-41,97939,2672,712
– Gross Longs:70,529143,53114,587
– Gross Shorts:112,508104,26411,875
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.387.233.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.9-11.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 323 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.244.19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.164.26.4
– Net Position:18,601-21,9563,355
– Gross Longs:30,74748,18210,295
– Gross Shorts:12,14670,1386,940
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.971.552.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.612.8-33.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -102,800 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -20,252 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -82,548 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.537.48.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.617.86.8
– Net Position:-102,80095,6367,164
– Gross Longs:119,598182,31240,256
– Gross Shorts:222,39886,67633,092
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.1 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.696.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-50.247.041.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
30 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (20,240 contracts) with Live Cattle (14,562 contracts), Coffee (2,322 contracts) and Cocoa (1,808 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-39,005 contracts), Soybean Meal (-17,071 contracts), Soybean Oil (-13,515 contracts), Soybeans (-6,133 contracts), Wheat (-6,069 contracts), Lean Hogs (-5,203 contracts) and Cotton (-4,702 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (95 percent) and Coffee (83 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Corn (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent), Soybean Meal (7 percent) and Wheat (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (60.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (65.8 percent)
Sugar (27.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (82.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (80.3 percent)
Soybeans (45.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (47.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (28.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (36.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (14.2 percent)
Live Cattle (94.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (54.6 percent)
Cotton (4.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.8 percent)
Cocoa (28.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (26.8 percent)
Wheat (11.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.4 percent)

Sugar & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (25 percent) and Live Cattle (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities and are the only markets with positive scores.

Soybean Oil (-43 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-34 percent), Corn (-29 percent) and Wheat (-21 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-29.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (-29.0 percent)
Sugar (25.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (20.8 percent)
Coffee (-5.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.3 percent)
Soybeans (-5.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-11.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (-43.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-34.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-14.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-12.9 percent)
Live Cattle (4.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-12.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (-33.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-26.9 percent)
Cotton (-7.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-8.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-19.3 percent)
Wheat (-21.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 200,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -39,005 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 239,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.642.67.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.750.210.4
– Net Position:200,371-140,438-59,933
– Gross Longs:416,135783,975131,205
– Gross Shorts:215,764924,413191,138
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.742.836.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.226.830.7

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 52,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 20,240 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,802 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.550.18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.758.26.0
– Net Position:52,042-72,76320,721
– Gross Longs:211,369450,05574,523
– Gross Shorts:159,327522,81853,802
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.270.946.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.1-24.817.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 58,452 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,322 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.434.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.169.43.9
– Net Position:58,452-61,2422,790
– Gross Longs:70,94760,8439,622
– Gross Shorts:12,495122,0856,832
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.518.564.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.15.6-11.4

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -14,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,133 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,277 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.954.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.649.88.1
– Net Position:-14,41042,137-27,727
– Gross Longs:161,713467,44441,401
– Gross Shorts:176,123425,30769,128
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.657.140.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.34.96.4

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -23,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,515 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.754.74.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.650.55.0
– Net Position:-23,34924,882-1,533
– Gross Longs:117,284325,97328,244
– Gross Shorts:140,633301,09129,777
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.775.28.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-43.044.5-44.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -49,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -17,071 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,207 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.451.08.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.945.65.4
– Net Position:-49,27831,35917,919
– Gross Longs:100,370294,36149,052
– Gross Shorts:149,648263,00231,133
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.290.136.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.514.2-2.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 117,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 14,562 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.327.28.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.950.813.8
– Net Position:117,987-94,564-23,423
– Gross Longs:193,964109,34731,975
– Gross Shorts:75,977203,91155,398
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.97.215.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.4-7.65.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 29,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,592 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.737.76.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.747.87.8
– Net Position:29,389-26,988-2,401
– Gross Longs:90,491101,43118,590
– Gross Shorts:61,102128,41920,991
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.647.763.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.834.619.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -54,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.052.44.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.133.44.8
– Net Position:-54,00653,793213
– Gross Longs:65,048148,23813,921
– Gross Shorts:119,05494,44513,708
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.995.518.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.08.3-19.3

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,278 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,470 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.944.29.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.265.26.0
– Net Position:18,278-21,7383,460
– Gross Longs:28,86445,7719,683
– Gross Shorts:10,58667,5096,223
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.671.754.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.711.6-30.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -82,548 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.236.67.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.919.57.1
– Net Position:-82,54879,3703,178
– Gross Longs:121,763170,09036,009
– Gross Shorts:204,31190,72032,831
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.684.574.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.120.18.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
28 Mar

High soybean prices in Zambia and Malawi may make chicken costly too: lack of competition is to blame

By Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, University of Johannesburg 

Poultry is one of the cheapest protein sources for the growing population of the east and southern Africa region. That makes soybeans critical to food security in the region, as they are an important input in chicken feed.

Soybean pricing and production dynamics have been challenging for Zambia and Malawi, threatening poultry production in the region.

Poultry feed makes up 60%-70% of the total cost of poultry production. Soybean prices directly affect the affordability of poultry and the ability of producers to be competitive. Small-scale independent poultry producers in particular have a hard time because they buy feed from the open market and are too small to determine prices. Large producers source feed from their own operations and determine soybean prices.

Figure 1: From soybeans to poultry

Source: Authors compilation

Zambia and Malawi are the key soybean producers in east and southern Africa. Both countries were hit hard in 2024 by climate change related weather and by the behaviour of players in the soybean market, including processors and traders.

Zambia’s soybean production fell by 74% because of poor rains and also because of farmers being squeezed. Large buyers had negotiated very low prices in previous years, so farmers planted less.

Malawi’s production also fell (20%), but much less than Zambia’s. Yet the surge in soybean prices in Malawi by 48% between May 2024 and November 2024 was out of proportion with the drop in production, and even surpassed Zambian prices (Figure 2). Malawian prices were the highest in the region, even though it produced enough to export.

We are economists at the African Market Observatory, which monitors prices of staple foods and conducts research on market dynamics. We analyse market concentration and barriers to entry, within and across countries in east and southern Africa, and we do in-depth field work.

Our work shows that competition issues, such as the ability of large buyers to influence prices and high margins, are at the heart of the surge in prices and low production in Malawi and Zambia. The climate-related weather effects are an additional factor.

Figure 2: Soybean prices in Zambia, Malawi and South Africa (benchmark) (3-month moving averages)

Market outcomes

In Zambia, dominant buyers of soybean offered farmers very low prices during the 2023 season – well below US$400/t and the South African benchmark (Figure 2). This meant that farmers planted less than half the 2023 crop in the 2024 season.

Crops were also affected by poor rainfall. Malawi’s 2024 production fell by 20% because of the worst drought in 100 years. The drop in production was lower than expected, demonstrating that farmers can adapt to weather changes. Prices still rose, however, driven by the highly concentrated soybean trading and processing market.

Cheapest source of proteins

Poultry is one of the cheapest sources of protein and has one of the lowest environmental impacts. It is essential that the value chain works well from feed to chicken rearing and becomes more resilient to extreme weather events.

The experience of 2024 shows what can go wrong.

Poultry demand in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow more than fourfold by 2050. Producers will need affordable feed.

Among them are many small-scale independent producers who rely on competitive markets for their inputs. Yet we found that with the escalating soybean and feed prices in Malawi from late 2021, and higher prices for day-old chicks, small independent producers had negative margins, meaning they made a loss in the second half of 2021. High feed prices undermine the competitiveness of Malawi’s poultry industry.

Aside from South Africa (which relies on genetically modified soybean), Zambia and Malawi have been the largest producers in the region. These countries have been exporting around half of their production (including soycake) to neighbouring countries with larger populations such as Tanzania and Kenya.

Zambia’s production plummet

Between 2020 and 2023, Zambia’s soybean production grew from 297,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes (Figure 3). In 2024, its production collapsed by 74% to 170,000 tonnes. This sharp decline was primarily due to farmers opting to plant less soybean because of the low prices offered from processors in 2023 (Figure 2). Farmers bought 50% less soybean seed for the 2024 season than the 2023 season.

Figure 3: Soybean production in Zambia and Malawi

With limited storage facilities available for farmers in most countries in the region, including Zambia, farmers typically have to sell to traders and processors shortly after harvest.

In Zambia, soybeans are produced by many small farmers, so they compete to sell their crop to a few main processors in a concentrated market. As a result, these processors have greater power to influence the terms of trade, such as price. This was especially evident in 2023 when processors offered farmers lower prices (Figure 2).

Poor rainfall linked to the 2023/24 El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is the warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, causing drought in southern Africa while inducing heavy rainfalls and floods in eastern Africa, did have an impact across southern Africa, including Malawi and Zambia. While Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania recorded above average rainfall, their soybean output is low.

Resilience to climate change impacts requires deepening and diversifying agriculture production across countries and regional trade to meet demand.

Soybean prices in Malawi remain high but Zambia’s prices stabilise

Malawi’s prices increased rapidly to over US$700/tonne in June 2024, surpassing Zambia’s, and continued to rise to almost $900/tonne at the end of the year, far above other countries in the region. The reason couldn’t be reduced production from poor rainfall, because production still exceeded local demand. This happened even as the Malawi government put export restrictions on soybeans (but not soymeal). The price surge raises competition concerns in Malawi, where trading and processing is highly concentrated. In theory, highly concentrated markets are characterised by high prices, due to a lack of price competition.

By comparison, Zambia’s prices moderated because of imports. In addition, the low soybean prices offered to farmers in 2023 also meant that processors had crushed surplus soybeans, thereby building up soymeal stock. This reduced the demand for soybeans, as did power cuts in Zambia, which limited crushers’ operations.

Urgent next steps

Soybean developments over 2024 show the need to consider how competition issues within and across borders can undermine the resilience of regional food markets and hinder the ability of small producers to compete. Zambia is currently conducting a commercial poultry market inquiry. But a regional approach in monitoring markets and tackling anti-competitive conduct is necessary to support poultry production.The Conversation

About the Authors:

Arthur Khomotso Mahuma, Economist and Researcher at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg and Namhla Landani, Economist at the Centre for Competition, Regulation and Economic Development, University of Johannesburg

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Opinions Soft Commodities
09 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Corn, Soybeans & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all eleven softs markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the softs markets was Corn (-105,723 contracts) with Soybean Oil (-29,827 contracts), Soybeans (-23,733 contracts), Wheat (-22,791 contracts), Lean Hogs (-21,162 contracts), Soybean Meal (-19,792 contracts), Cotton (-18,651 contracts), Live Cattle (-11,216 contracts), Sugar (-7,482 contracts), Cocoa (-1,800 contracts) and Coffee (-346 contracts) also showing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (83 percent) and Corn (77 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (68 percent) and Lean Hogs (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent), Soybean Meal (4 percent), Wheat (10 percent) and Sugar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (76.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.0 percent)
Sugar (18.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (21.3 percent)
Coffee (82.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (83.2 percent)
Soybeans (39.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (44.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (65.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (4.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.6 percent)
Live Cattle (67.9 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (78.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (63.9 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (80.2 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (11.3 percent)
Cocoa (28.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (29.8 percent)
Wheat (9.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (27.9 percent)

Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (18 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only positive mover for soft commodities.

Live Cattle (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-20 percent), Lean Hogs (-18 percent) and Coffee (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-7.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (11.9 percent)
Sugar (18.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (6.2 percent)
Coffee (-15.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-13.0 percent)
Soybeans (-12.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-6.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (5.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (-11.2 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-2.5 percent)
Live Cattle (-27.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-21.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (-18.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-6.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.7 percent)
Cocoa (-20.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-17.8 percent)
Wheat (-9.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (16.0 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 335,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -105,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 441,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.740.26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.555.010.1
– Net Position:335,438-272,829-62,609
– Gross Longs:492,878744,078124,822
– Gross Shorts:157,4401,016,907187,431
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.626.333.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.35.518.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,482 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.151.46.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.254.36.5
– Net Position:26,009-26,402393
– Gross Longs:191,009464,61559,086
– Gross Shorts:165,000491,01758,693
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.983.520.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-16.55.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.032.96.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.771.14.1
– Net Position:58,837-62,0343,197
– Gross Longs:73,03853,4709,875
– Gross Shorts:14,201115,5046,678
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.917.870.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.015.7-17.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,733 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,550 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.858.04.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.149.78.8
– Net Position:-34,28367,504-33,221
– Gross Longs:161,354472,11638,291
– Gross Shorts:195,637404,61271,512
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.265.225.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.713.10.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 14,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.155.85.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.559.54.7
– Net Position:14,490-20,7496,259
– Gross Longs:112,638312,71232,698
– Gross Shorts:98,148333,46126,439
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.452.738.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.19.419.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -19,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,112 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.052.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.145.65.9
– Net Position:-55,90439,09016,814
– Gross Longs:100,013292,12049,575
– Gross Shorts:155,917253,03032,761
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.593.231.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.211.5-8.2

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 90,016 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,232 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.330.07.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.049.413.1
– Net Position:90,016-68,986-21,030
– Gross Longs:157,737106,63225,730
– Gross Shorts:67,721175,61846,760
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.938.223.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.726.523.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,162 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,827 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.534.67.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.349.39.1
– Net Position:46,665-42,376-4,289
– Gross Longs:104,95799,33121,945
– Gross Shorts:58,292141,70726,234
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.934.551.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.018.013.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -62,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.952.05.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.130.05.1
– Net Position:-62,13761,640497
– Gross Longs:70,011145,79614,670
– Gross Shorts:132,14884,15614,173
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.019.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.513.4-6.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.040.79.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.662.15.4
– Net Position:17,651-21,7174,066
– Gross Longs:29,41041,2219,501
– Gross Shorts:11,75962,9385,435
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.071.751.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.223.1-25.1

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -84,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,791 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,051 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.238.68.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.019.67.3
– Net Position:-84,84281,0583,784
– Gross Longs:116,367165,08235,060
– Gross Shorts:201,20984,02431,276
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.885.977.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.49.8-2.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
01 Mar

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (54,198 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-27,563 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts), Soybeans (-4,908 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (90 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Sugar (21 percent), Soybean Meal (22 percent) and Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (90.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (93.6 percent)
Sugar (21.3 percent) vs Sugar previous week (4.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (44.9 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (46.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Wheat top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (12 percent), Live Cattle (9 percent) and Sugar (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Cocoa (-10 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-6 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (11.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (6.2 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.6 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (-6.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 441,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,563 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 468,724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.238.86.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.257.510.6
– Net Position:441,161-358,683-82,478
– Gross Longs:597,706744,225119,966
– Gross Shorts:156,5451,102,908202,444
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.014.910.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-11.5-8.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 54,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,707 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.451.27.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.956.46.1
– Net Position:33,491-50,61217,121
– Gross Longs:206,226494,53276,510
– Gross Shorts:172,735545,14459,389
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.376.941.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-11.027.8

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,550 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,908 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.457.34.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.751.79.1
– Net Position:-10,55046,048-35,498
– Gross Longs:160,652474,79540,258
– Gross Shorts:171,202428,74775,756
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.959.819.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.06.9-6.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
22 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led by Corn & Wheat

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Wheat

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,955 contracts) with Wheat (11,414 contracts), Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (5,819 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Soybeans (-12,423 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Corn & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Corn (94 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (88 percent), Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (4 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (93.6 percent) vs Corn previous week (88.0 percent)
Sugar (4.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (2.1 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (46.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (49.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Corn (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Wheat (16 percent), Soybeans (11 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (17.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-22.9 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (10.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (18.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 468,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 424,769 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.339.05.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.757.210.2
– Net Position:468,724-377,274-91,450
– Gross Longs:627,494807,094120,055
– Gross Shorts:158,7701,184,368211,505
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.612.40.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-16.2-31.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.854.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.953.36.7
– Net Position:-20,70712,0568,651
– Gross Longs:205,612538,44174,611
– Gross Shorts:226,319526,38565,960
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.093.830.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.617.86.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,781 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.555.44.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.151.28.4
– Net Position:-5,64237,594-31,952
– Gross Longs:166,913499,90943,943
– Gross Shorts:172,555462,31575,895
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.057.729.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-9.4-17.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
16 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Wheat, Cotton & Sugar

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Wheat & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Wheat (11,414 contracts) with Cotton (8,202 contracts), Sugar (6,583 contracts), Lean Hogs (3,775 contracts) and Soybean Oil (1,573 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-37,612 contracts), Soybeans (-30,385 contracts), Soybean Meal (-13,276 contracts), Cocoa (-8,571 contracts), Coffee (-8,181 contracts) and with Live Cattle (-3,015 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Live Cattle, Coffee & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Live Cattle (90 percent), Coffee (88 percent) and Corn (88 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (84 percent) and Soybean Oil (72 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Sugar (2 percent) and Cotton (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (22 percent) and the Wheat (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (88.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (92.7 percent)
Sugar (2.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (0.0 percent)
Coffee (87.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (95.5 percent)
Soybeans (48.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (55.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (71.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (21.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (27.1 percent)
Live Cattle (90.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (93.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (84.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (81.5 percent)
Cotton (5.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (0.0 percent)
Cocoa (37.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (46.1 percent)
Wheat (32.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (23.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Soybeans top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (27 percent) and Soybeans (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (17 percent), Wheat (16 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-23 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Cocoa (-10 percent), Cotton (-5 percent) and Lean Hogs (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (17.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (30.1 percent)
Sugar (-22.9 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-29.8 percent)
Coffee (0.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (7.5 percent)
Soybeans (18.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (27.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (20.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (3.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (18.9 percent)
Live Cattle (9.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (13.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-4.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-13.8 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-12.4 percent)
Cocoa (-9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.2 percent)
Wheat (16.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (15.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 424,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -37,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 462,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.939.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.056.010.4
– Net Position:424,769-338,472-86,297
– Gross Longs:586,274796,993124,448
– Gross Shorts:161,5051,135,465210,745
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.017.62.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.1-14.2-32.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,526 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,109 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.953.27.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.551.37.0
– Net Position:-26,52619,2977,229
– Gross Longs:231,941538,04478,087
– Gross Shorts:258,467518,74770,858
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.195.829.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.918.63.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 63,697 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,181 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,878 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.737.05.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.671.93.5
– Net Position:63,697-67,1693,472
– Gross Longs:78,31071,13010,259
– Gross Shorts:14,613138,2996,787
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.612.975.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.9-1.815.5

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,781 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -30,385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.855.84.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.28.2
– Net Position:6,78123,383-30,164
– Gross Longs:170,362505,03944,383
– Gross Shorts:163,581481,65674,547
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.254.533.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-18.0-10.3

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 55,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.155.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.467.04.5
– Net Position:55,168-65,1539,985
– Gross Longs:124,887312,91435,495
– Gross Shorts:69,719378,06725,510
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.730.752.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.0-28.632.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -13,967 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,276 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -691 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.38.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.851.05.7
– Net Position:-13,967-4,40818,375
– Gross Longs:102,087294,10951,912
– Gross Shorts:116,054298,51733,537
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.776.038.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-2.5-9.6

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 113,424 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,015 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 116,439 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.929.57.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.153.514.1
– Net Position:113,424-88,275-25,149
– Gross Longs:179,879108,59526,597
– Gross Shorts:66,455196,87051,746
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.514.89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.1-9.5-5.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,775 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.332.07.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.253.49.4
– Net Position:73,220-67,641-5,579
– Gross Longs:137,087101,13724,044
– Gross Shorts:63,867168,77829,623
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.413.043.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.40.829.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,565 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,767 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.950.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.736.34.6
– Net Position:-42,56539,2383,327
– Gross Longs:68,832143,74516,498
– Gross Shorts:111,397104,50713,171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):5.493.836.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.22.920.2

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,819 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.840.09.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.767.34.1
– Net Position:26,819-33,0516,232
– Gross Longs:40,94748,36911,236
– Gross Shorts:14,12881,4205,004
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.6 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.360.165.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.99.63.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.534.18.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.921.97.7
– Net Position:-55,94154,2811,660
– Gross Longs:132,148152,70935,998
– Gross Shorts:188,08998,42834,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.764.465.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.3-16.3-1.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Feb

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Meal, Wheat & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Meal (23,817 contracts) with Wheat (23,756 contracts), Corn (18,506 contracts), Soybeans (5,815 contracts), Soybean Oil (5,428 contracts) and Lean Hogs (3,384 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-8,339 contracts), Coffee (-4,642 contracts), Sugar (-3,675 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,605 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,578 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee, Live Cattle & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (96 percent), Live Cattle (93 percent) and Corn (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Lean Hogs (81 percent) and Soybean Oil (71 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (0 percent) and Sugar (0 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Wheat (24 percent) and Soybean Meal (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (92.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (90.4 percent)
Sugar (0.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (95.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (100.0 percent)
Soybeans (55.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (54.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (67.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (27.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (17.4 percent)
Live Cattle (93.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (95.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (81.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (78.9 percent)
Cotton (0.0 percent) vs Cotton previous week (5.4 percent)
Cocoa (46.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (23.7 percent) vs Wheat previous week (4.8 percent)

Soybeans & Corn top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (34 percent) and Corn (30 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (21 percent), Soybean Meal (19 percent) and Wheat (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Sugar (-30 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Lean Hogs (-14 percent), Cotton (-12 percent) and Cocoa (-1 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (30.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (28.3 percent)
Sugar (-29.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-31.2 percent)
Coffee (7.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (13.9 percent)
Soybeans (33.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (33.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (18.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (8.3 percent)
Live Cattle (13.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (8.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-13.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-21.1 percent)
Cotton (-12.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-10.3 percent)
Cocoa (-1.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.7 percent)
Wheat (15.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-9.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 462,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,506 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 443,875 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.038.35.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.156.910.2
– Net Position:462,381-374,564-87,817
– Gross Longs:626,001773,870118,268
– Gross Shorts:163,6201,148,434206,085
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.712.80.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-27.5-35.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -33,109 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,434 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.453.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.750.87.0
– Net Position:-33,10929,7453,364
– Gross Longs:227,314544,96074,415
– Gross Shorts:260,423515,21571,051
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.098.624.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.826.2-4.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,878 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.931.55.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.871.13.3
– Net Position:71,878-76,7284,850
– Gross Longs:83,06660,96411,225
– Gross Shorts:11,188137,6926,375
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.53.898.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-9.028.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,351 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.455.74.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.356.28.5
– Net Position:37,166-4,926-32,240
– Gross Longs:182,119495,67243,118
– Gross Shorts:144,953500,59875,358
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.347.528.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.5-31.5-38.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 53,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,167 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.254.35.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.864.94.4
– Net Position:53,595-60,6797,084
– Gross Longs:121,346311,28332,530
– Gross Shorts:67,751371,96225,446
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.833.041.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.7-21.521.7

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -691 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 23,817 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,508 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.450.18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.552.75.6
– Net Position:-691-15,51316,204
– Gross Longs:103,159297,38849,293
– Gross Shorts:103,850312,90133,089
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.171.628.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-16.4-21.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 116,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,605 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 119,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.628.27.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.552.013.4
– Net Position:116,439-91,888-24,551
– Gross Longs:199,414109,04027,075
– Gross Shorts:82,975200,92851,626
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.410.411.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.0-12.6-10.1

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 69,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.833.27.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.854.69.0
– Net Position:69,445-64,565-4,880
– Gross Longs:129,010100,20422,404
– Gross Shorts:59,565164,76927,284
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.515.648.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.811.526.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -50,767 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,339 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.450.35.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.933.34.9
– Net Position:-50,76749,2141,553
– Gross Longs:64,897145,91215,822
– Gross Shorts:115,66496,69814,269
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.026.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.410.314.5

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.735.28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.267.43.9
– Net Position:35,390-41,3095,919
– Gross Longs:48,47345,21010,952
– Gross Shorts:13,08386,5195,033
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.151.662.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.0-6.0

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -67,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 23,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.533.57.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.720.16.8
– Net Position:-67,35563,6813,674
– Gross Longs:130,876159,16035,860
– Gross Shorts:198,23195,47932,186
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.772.076.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-17.17.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
09 Feb

Speculator Extremes: Cotton, Sugar & 5-Year lead Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on February 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Coffee


The Coffee speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Coffee speculator level is currently at a 95.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 71,878 net contracts this week with a decline of -4,642 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Gold


The Gold speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Gold speculator level is now at a 95.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.8 this week. The speculator position registered 302,508 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 3,099 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 93.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 13.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 116,439 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,605 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 92.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 30.1 this week. The overall speculator position was 462,381 net contracts this week with a boost of 18,506 contracts in the speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Steel speculator level sits at a 88.5 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 11.8 this week.

The speculator position was -1,763 net contracts this week with a small increase of 22 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -50,767 net contracts this week with a drop of -8,339 contracts in the speculator bets.

Sugar


The Sugar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Sugar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -29.8 this week. The speculator position was -33,109 net contracts this week with a decline of -3,675 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 2.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,927,666 net contracts this week with a drop of -151,611 contracts in the speculator bets.

Euro


The Euro speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Euro speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 3.8 this week. The speculator position was -58,614 net contracts this week with a rise of 7,990 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

New Zealand Dollar


Finally, the New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 6.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.6 this week. The speculator position was -49,090 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,059 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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