Archive for Soft Commodities

21 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (8,077 contracts) with Lean Hogs (1,888 contracts) and Coffee (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,144 contracts), Soybeans (-23,113 contracts), Wheat (-20,050 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,616 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,513 contracts), Cotton (-7,075 contracts), Corn (-2,575 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,696 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (98 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Corn (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (62.4 percent)
Sugar (25.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.7 percent)
Coffee (86.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (86.4 percent)
Soybeans (20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (64.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.4 percent)
Live Cattle (98.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (89.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (98.5 percent)
Cotton (13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.9 percent)
Cocoa (45.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.1 percent)

Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (34 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-24 percent), Soybean Meal (-24 percent) and Cotton (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (-3.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (-0.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-23.1 percent)
Live Cattle (34.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.5 percent)
Cotton (-9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (-45.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-28.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 221,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.146.17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.456.610.7
– Net Position:221,848-170,678-51,170
– Gross Longs:454,635745,237121,259
– Gross Shorts:232,787915,915172,429
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.139.839.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-14.7-11.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.453.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.261.96.0
– Net Position:68,183-79,99811,815
– Gross Longs:221,468505,12668,565
– Gross Shorts:153,285585,12456,750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.573.535.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.59.6-30.6

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly edge higher of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.234.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.067.53.0
– Net Position:62,147-65,7003,553
– Gross Longs:74,22769,1459,539
– Gross Shorts:12,080134,8455,986
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.512.771.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.8-0.317.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -109,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.056.65.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.042.97.4
– Net Position:-109,329125,032-15,703
– Gross Longs:156,034518,26352,313
– Gross Shorts:265,363393,23168,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.779.671.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.28.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.152.85.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.258.95.3
– Net Position:33,350-34,5661,216
– Gross Longs:142,261299,58931,466
– Gross Shorts:108,911334,15530,250
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.745.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.625.5-32.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.445.58.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.542.25.3
– Net Position:-44,84421,47823,366
– Gross Longs:130,356290,50657,067
– Gross Shorts:175,200269,02833,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.086.260.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.323.8-4.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.128.67.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.553.713.5
– Net Position:110,778-87,943-22,835
– Gross Longs:175,651100,38924,537
– Gross Shorts:64,873188,33247,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.415.27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.5-39.62.8

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 93,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.330.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.254.810.0
– Net Position:93,410-80,545-12,865
– Gross Longs:154,060101,70420,534
– Gross Shorts:60,650182,24933,399
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.02.014.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-14.6-24.7

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.947.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.036.05.8
– Net Position:-26,60327,546-943
– Gross Longs:59,565113,85412,851
– Gross Shorts:86,16886,30813,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.186.810.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.59.5-7.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.938.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.371.24.2
– Net Position:35,281-42,0676,786
– Gross Longs:51,06449,03312,193
– Gross Shorts:15,78391,1005,407
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.950.970.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.41.7-2.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.639.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.420.97.6
– Net Position:-79,34080,945-1,605
– Gross Longs:126,968173,93432,189
– Gross Shorts:206,30892,98933,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.285.849.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.140.832.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
15 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (87,195 contracts) with Soybean Oil (16,035 contracts), Soybeans (12,268 contracts), Sugar (9,012 contracts)  Live Cattle (5,657 contracts), Soybean Meal (4,742 contracts) and Wheat (2,247 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Cotton (-5,938 contracts), Coffee (-4,653 contracts), Lean Hogs (-237 contracts) and with Cocoa (-188 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Soybean Oil (65 percent) and Corn (62 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (15 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (26 percent) and the Wheat (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (35.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (32.6 percent)
Coffee (86.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.9 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (23.3 percent)
Soybean Oil (64.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (56.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (15.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (13.5 percent)
Live Cattle (89.7 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (83.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (99.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (17.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.9 percent)
Cocoa (47.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.9 percent)
Wheat (30.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (28.3 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (24 percent) and Live Cattle (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (18 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Meal (-23 percent), Soybean Oil (-12 percent) and Cotton (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (18.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (15.2 percent)
Sugar (5.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-1.8 percent)
Coffee (-3.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.4 percent)
Soybeans (1.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-4.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-42.0 percent)
Live Cattle (22.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (26.2 percent)
Lean Hogs (23.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (33.1 percent)
Cotton (-5.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-0.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-3.9 percent)
Wheat (-28.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-35.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 224,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 87,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 137,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.444.77.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.256.310.2
– Net Position:224,423-183,482-40,941
– Gross Longs:465,806707,447121,307
– Gross Shorts:241,383890,929162,248
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.438.153.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.0-19.57.3

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 9,012 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 88,315 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.550.57.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.063.05.8
– Net Position:97,327-115,92618,599
– Gross Longs:237,266469,79172,554
– Gross Shorts:139,939585,71753,955
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.763.143.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.10.4-20.9

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,727 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.334.84.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.966.73.1
– Net Position:62,074-65,1263,052
– Gross Longs:76,21771,1109,346
– Gross Shorts:14,143136,2366,294
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.413.363.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.12.85.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,216 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,268 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,484 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.655.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.044.47.3
– Net Position:-86,216102,553-16,337
– Gross Longs:160,946508,77450,637
– Gross Shorts:247,162406,22166,974
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.274.169.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.4-1.1-3.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 42,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 16,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,828 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.652.85.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.061.84.5
– Net Position:42,863-50,7517,888
– Gross Longs:144,344298,26533,370
– Gross Shorts:101,481349,01625,482
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.937.944.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.89.49.8

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -29,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.144.99.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.944.05.2
– Net Position:-29,2285,02124,207
– Gross Longs:135,659275,02255,954
– Gross Shorts:164,887270,00131,747
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.479.764.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.123.4-12.1

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 102,701 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,044 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.230.26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.053.214.1
– Net Position:102,701-77,914-24,787
– Gross Longs:167,119102,57823,110
– Gross Shorts:64,418180,49247,897
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.727.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.6-24.5-2.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 91,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,759 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.629.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.351.39.0
– Net Position:91,522-79,905-11,617
– Gross Longs:179,204105,33220,747
– Gross Shorts:87,682185,23732,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.82.622.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-21.9-24.1

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -19,528 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.747.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.138.75.7
– Net Position:-19,52819,378150
– Gross Longs:59,508108,92713,293
– Gross Shorts:79,03689,54913,143
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.981.817.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.24.07.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.136.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.570.14.5
– Net Position:36,977-43,6226,645
– Gross Longs:54,36646,91512,396
– Gross Shorts:17,38990,5375,751
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.749.368.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.41.0-4.6

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,290 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,247 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,537 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.738.86.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.623.77.9
– Net Position:-59,29064,282-4,992
– Gross Longs:126,404165,14528,783
– Gross Shorts:185,694100,86333,775
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.172.430.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.926.220.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
07 Dec

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (12,221 contracts) with Lean Hogs (10,520 contracts), Soybeans (7,453 contracts), Cotton (3,311 contracts), Live Cattle (3,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,862 contracts) and Corn (359 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,345 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,665 contracts), Coffee (-3,886 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,570 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (84 percent), Soybean Oil (56 percent) and Corn (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Cotton (22 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Wheat (28 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (32.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.3 percent)
Coffee (90.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybeans (23.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (56.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (91.8 percent)
Cotton (21.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (47.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.5 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.7 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (33 percent) and Live Cattle (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-35 percent), Soybean Oil (-23 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (-1.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-42.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-40.1 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.7 percent)
Cotton (-4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.7 percent)
Wheat (-35.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week was a net position of 137,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,869 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.446.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.553.110.5
– Net Position:137,228-101,968-35,260
– Gross Longs:404,920711,737125,015
– Gross Shorts:267,692813,705160,275
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.349.060.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-17.112.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week was a net position of 88,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.750.58.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.862.76.0
– Net Position:88,315-108,34820,033
– Gross Longs:228,964449,48973,180
– Gross Shorts:140,649557,83753,147
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.665.345.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.86.1-21.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 66,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 70,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.635.14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.669.62.9
– Net Position:66,727-69,8173,090
– Gross Longs:78,01570,9369,014
– Gross Shorts:11,288140,7535,924
– Long to Short Ratio:6.9 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.98.764.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.4-0.2-3.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week was a net position of -98,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,937 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.256.45.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.943.97.2
– Net Position:-98,484115,653-17,169
– Gross Longs:158,897520,43149,744
– Gross Shorts:257,381404,77866,913
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.377.367.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.46.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,828 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.553.75.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.859.44.7
– Net Position:26,828-32,2525,424
– Gross Longs:138,699303,49032,253
– Gross Shorts:111,871335,74226,829
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.147.035.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.122.8-15.6

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,970 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.045.99.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.644.05.5
– Net Position:-33,97011,23122,739
– Gross Longs:132,664277,15955,879
– Gross Shorts:166,634265,92833,140
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.582.258.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-42.040.8-2.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week was a net position of 97,044 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,749 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.431.06.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.851.613.7
– Net Position:97,044-72,727-24,317
– Gross Longs:163,456109,25824,090
– Gross Shorts:66,412181,98548,407
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.633.60.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.2-26.3-9.9

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week was a net position of 91,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,520 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.028.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.150.58.9
– Net Position:91,759-82,933-8,826
– Gross Longs:180,550103,19723,829
– Gross Shorts:88,791186,13032,655
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.039.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.1-33.8-12.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week was a net position of -13,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,311 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,901 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.846.35.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.740.45.6
– Net Position:-13,59013,602-12
– Gross Longs:59,802107,28212,854
– Gross Shorts:73,39293,68012,866
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.978.216.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.24.3-4.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week was a net position of 37,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,570 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.335.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.769.44.1
– Net Position:37,165-43,5946,429
– Gross Longs:56,34046,77411,738
– Gross Shorts:19,17590,3685,309
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.949.366.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.93.16.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week was a net position of -61,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -9,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.638.37.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.122.78.1
– Net Position:-61,53766,335-4,798
– Gross Longs:125,216162,38329,486
– Gross Shorts:186,75396,04834,284
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.7 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.374.131.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.335.23.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
26 Nov

Svalbard Global Seed Vault evokes epic imagery and controversy because of the symbolic value of seeds

By Adriana Craciun, Boston University 

Two-thirds of the world’s food comes today from just nine plants: sugar cane, maize (corn), rice, wheat, potatoes, soybeans, oil-palm fruit, sugar beet and cassava. In the past, farmers grew tens of thousands of crop varieties around the world. This biodiversity protected agriculture from crop losses caused by plant diseases and climate change.

Today, seed banks around the world are doing much of the work of saving crop varieties that could be essential resources under future growing conditions. The Svalbard Global Seed Vault in Norway supports them all. It is the world’s most famous backup site for seeds that are more precious than data.

Tens of thousands of new seeds from around the world arrived at the seed vault on Svalbard, a Norwegian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, in mid-October 2024. This was one of the largest deposits in the vault’s 16-year history.

And on Oct. 31, crop scientists Cary Fowler and Geoffrey Hawtin, who played key roles in creating the Global Seed Vault, received the US$500,000 World Food Prize, which recognizes work that has helped increase the supply, quality or accessibility of food worldwide.

The Global Seed Vault has been politically controversial since it opened in 2008. It is the most visible site in a global agricultural research network associated with the United Nations and funders such as the World Bank.

These organizations supported the Green Revolution – a concerted effort to introduce high-yielding seeds to developing nations in the mid-20th century. This effort saved millions of people from starvation, but it shifted agriculture in a technology-intensive direction. The Global Seed Vault has become a lightning rod for critiques of that effort and its long-term impacts.

I have visited the vault and am completing a book about connections between scientific research on seeds and ideas about immortality over centuries. My research shows that the Global Seed Vault’s controversies are in part inspired by religious associations that predate it. But these cultural beliefs also remain essential for the vault’s support and influence and thus for its goal of protecting biodiversity.

The Global Seed Vault gives scientists the tools they may need to breed crops that can cope with a changing climate.

Backup for a global network

Several hundred million seeds from thousands of species of agricultural plants live inside the Global Seed Vault. They come from 80 nations and are tucked away in special metallic pouches that keep them dry.

The vault is designed to prolong their dormancy at zero degrees Fahrenheit (-18 degrees Celsius) in three ice-covered caverns inside a sandstone mountain. The air is so cold inside that when I entered the vault, my eyelashes and the inside of my nose froze.

The Global Seed Vault is owned by Norway and run by the Nordic Genetic Resources Centre. It was created under a U.N. treaty governing over 1,700 seed banks, where seeds are stored away from farms, to serve as what the U.N. calls “the ultimate insurance policy for the world’s food supply.”

This network enables nations, nongovernmental organizations, scientists and farmers to save and exchange seeds for research, breeding and replanting. The vault is the backup collection for all of these seed banks, storing their duplicate seeds at no charge to them.

The seed vault’s cultural meaning

The vault’s Arctic location and striking appearance contribute to both its public appeal and its controversies.

Svalbard is often described as a remote, frozen wasteland. For conspiracy theorists, early visits to the Global Seed Vault by billionaires such as Bill Gates and George Soros, and representatives from Google and Monsanto, signaled that the vault had a secret purpose or benefited global elites.

In fact, however, the archipelago of Svalbard has daily flights to other Norwegian cities. Its cosmopolitan capital, Longyearbyen, is home to 2,700 people from 50 countries, drawn by ecotourism and scientific research – hardly a well-hidden site for covert activities.

The vault’s entrance features a striking installation by Norwegian artist Dyveke Sanne. An illuminated kaleidoscope of mirrors, this iconic artwork glows in the long Arctic night and draws many tourists.

Because of its mission to preserve seeds through potential disasters, media regularly describe the Global Seed Vault as the “doomsday vault,” or a “modern Noah’s Ark.” Singled out based on its location, appearance and associations with Biblical myths such as the Flood, the Garden of Eden and the apocalypse, the vault has acquired a public meaning unlike that of any other seed bank.

The politics of seed conservation

One consequence is that the vault often serves as a lightning rod for critics who view seed conservation as the latest stage in a long history of Europeans removing natural resources from developing nations. But these critiques don’t really reflect how the Global Seed Vault works.

The vault and its sister seed banks don’t diminish cultivation of seeds grown by farmers in fields. The two methods complement one another, and seed depositors retain ownership of their seeds.

Another misleading criticism argues that storing seeds at Svalbard prevents these plants from adapting to climate change and could render them useless in a warmer future. But storing seeds in a dormant state actually mirrors plants’ own survival strategy.

Dormancy is the mysterious plant behavior that “protects against an unpredictable future,” according to biologist Anthony Trewavas. Plants are experts in coping with climate unpredictability by essentially hibernating.

Seed dormancy allows plants to hedge their bets on the future; the Global Seed Vault extends this state for decades or longer. While varieties in the field may become extinct, their banked seeds live to fight another day.

Storing more than seeds

In 2017, a delegation of Quechua farmers from the Peruvian Andes traveled to Svalbard to deposit seeds of their sacred potato varieties in the vault. In songs and prayers, they said goodbye to the seeds as their “loved ones” and “endangered children.” “We’re not just leaving genes, but also a family,” one farmer told Svalbard officials.

The farmers said the vault would protect what they called their “Indigenous biocultural heritage” – an interweaving of scientific and cultural value, and of plants and people, that for the farmers evoked the sacred.

People from around the world have sought to attach their art to the Global Seed Vault for a similar reason. In 2018, the Svalbard Seed Cultures Ark began depositing artworks that attach stories to seeds in a nearby mine.

Pope Francis sent an envoy with a handmade copy of a book reflecting on the pope’s message of hope to the world during the COVID-19 pandemic. Japanese sculptor Mitsuaki Tanabe created a 9-meter-long steel grain of rice for the vault’s opening and was permitted to place a miniature version inside.

Seeds sleeping in Svalbard are far from their home soil, but each one is enveloped in an invisible web of the microbes and fungi that traveled with it. These microbiomes are still interacting with each seed in ways scientists are just beginning to understand.

I see the Global Seed Vault as a lively and fragile place, powered not by money or technology but by the strange power of seeds. The World Food Prize once again highlights their vital promise.The Conversation

About the Author:

Adriana Craciun, Professor of English and Emma MacLachlan Metcalf Chair of Humanities, Boston University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Opinions Soft Commodities
23 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal & Cotton

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (3,616 contracts) with Coffee (450 contracts) and Live Cattle (408 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-29,061 contracts), Soybean Meal (-28,762 contracts), Cotton (-19,649 contracts), Corn (-14,345 contracts), Soybeans (-9,218 contracts), Wheat (-7,510 contracts), Lean Hogs (-4,000 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,668 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (96 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (79 percent), Live Cattle (71 percent) and Corn (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Soybean Meal (21 percent), Soybeans (26 percent) and the Sugar (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (54.7 percent) vs Corn previous week (56.5 percent)
Sugar (26.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (25.4 percent)
Coffee (93.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.6 percent)
Soybeans (26.2 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (78.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (20.7 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (32.5 percent)
Live Cattle (70.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (70.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (96.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (100.0 percent)
Cotton (10.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (47.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.0 percent)
Wheat (40.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (46.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (35 percent) and Live Cattle (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (16 percent), Coffee (6 percent) and Soybean Oil (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-48 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-26 percent), Cotton (-13 percent) and Sugar (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (16.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (-11.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.6 percent)
Coffee (6.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.6 percent)
Soybeans (-8.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-0.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (4.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (25.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-47.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-37.5 percent)
Live Cattle (22.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (34.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (34.5 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (50.7 percent)
Cotton (-13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-0.9 percent)
Cocoa (-3.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-1.1 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-25.7 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 163,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 177,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.147.37.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.354.110.8
– Net Position:163,301-113,151-50,150
– Gross Longs:418,990787,938129,840
– Gross Shorts:255,689901,089179,990
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.747.541.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.2-17.78.2

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.050.68.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.962.15.5
– Net Position:71,738-101,15429,416
– Gross Longs:220,130445,18977,757
– Gross Shorts:148,392546,34348,341
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.767.457.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.111.1-9.3

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,918 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 450 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.636.04.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.172.72.8
– Net Position:68,918-73,0154,097
– Gross Longs:79,03171,8929,610
– Gross Shorts:10,113144,9075,513
– Long to Short Ratio:7.8 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.05.679.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-6.68.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -86,331 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -9,218 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,113 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.658.15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.246.07.8
– Net Position:-86,331109,077-22,746
– Gross Longs:168,134524,55848,087
– Gross Shorts:254,465415,48170,833
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):26.275.753.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.36.226.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 68,164 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,061 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,225 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.849.36.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.063.44.2
– Net Position:68,164-81,07112,907
– Gross Longs:161,005285,53437,163
– Gross Shorts:92,841366,60524,256
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.822.964.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.3-9.443.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,256 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,762 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,506 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.446.19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.047.65.5
– Net Position:-16,256-9,39225,648
– Gross Longs:145,560286,61159,727
– Gross Shorts:161,816296,00334,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.774.071.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-47.646.9-10.4

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 85,187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 84,779 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.133.17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.551.313.7
– Net Position:85,187-63,090-22,097
– Gross Longs:152,864114,60325,343
– Gross Shorts:67,677177,69347,440
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.845.37.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.0-21.0-12.0

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 71,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,000 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,982 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.929.86.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.947.99.0
– Net Position:71,982-62,301-9,681
– Gross Longs:157,401102,20421,302
– Gross Shorts:85,419164,50530,983
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.45.439.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.5-33.5-19.8

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -31,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.250.55.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.237.65.5
– Net Position:-31,13530,832303
– Gross Longs:58,166121,09313,578
– Gross Shorts:89,30190,26113,275
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.188.918.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.112.6-5.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,594 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,262 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.237.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.971.24.0
– Net Position:36,594-43,7847,190
– Gross Longs:55,93248,44012,337
– Gross Shorts:19,33892,2245,147
– Long to Short Ratio:2.9 to 10.5 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.348.173.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.43.21.8

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -46,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,529 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.038.86.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.326.88.6
– Net Position:-46,03953,723-7,684
– Gross Longs:116,397173,88430,822
– Gross Shorts:162,436120,16138,506
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.664.016.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.827.3-7.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
16 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Large Speculator bets led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was  Corn (74,998 contracts) with Soybean Oil (20,687 contracts), Soybeans (11,870 contracts), Live Cattle (5,941 contracts), Coffee (5,491 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,541 contracts), Cocoa (1,603 contracts) and Cotton (955 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-15,988 contracts), Sugar (-10,099 contracts) and with Soybean Meal (-1,818 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs, Soybean Oil & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent), Soybean Oil (95 percent) and Coffee (93 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (70 percent) and Corn (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Sugar (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Soybeans (28 percent) and the Soybean Meal (33 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (56.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (46.9 percent)
Sugar (25.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (29.0 percent)
Coffee (92.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.3 percent)
Soybeans (28.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (94.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (83.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (32.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (33.3 percent)
Live Cattle (70.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (95.9 percent)
Cotton (22.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.0 percent)
Cocoa (49.0 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.4 percent)
Wheat (42.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.8 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (51 percent) and Live Cattle (34 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (26 percent) and Corn (24 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-38 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-23 percent) and Sugar (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (21.2 percent)
Sugar (-21.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-13.1 percent)
Coffee (0.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-5.4 percent)
Soybeans (-0.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (25.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (31.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-19.9 percent)
Live Cattle (34.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (46.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.7 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (56.2 percent)
Cotton (-0.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (2.6 percent)
Cocoa (-1.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.7 percent)
Wheat (-23.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-7.5 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 177,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 74,998 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,648 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.045.67.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.453.210.9
– Net Position:177,646-126,120-51,526
– Gross Longs:434,784763,888130,863
– Gross Shorts:257,138890,008182,389
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.545.839.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.5-24.3-2.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,122 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.050.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.061.55.9
– Net Position:68,122-93,06424,942
– Gross Longs:213,319431,90375,606
– Gross Shorts:145,197524,96750,664
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.469.752.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.618.3-3.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.838.74.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.473.62.8
– Net Position:68,468-71,5683,100
– Gross Longs:77,57479,4508,905
– Gross Shorts:9,106151,0185,805
– Long to Short Ratio:8.5 to 10.5 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.67.064.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.61.0-26.7

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -77,113 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.757.75.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.746.57.8
– Net Position:-77,11396,357-19,244
– Gross Longs:161,342497,24948,231
– Gross Shorts:238,455400,89267,475
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.472.562.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.8-1.120.6

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 97,225 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 20,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.146.96.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.565.84.1
– Net Position:97,225-110,88313,658
– Gross Longs:181,752274,08137,629
– Gross Shorts:84,527384,96423,971
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.78.267.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.7-27.634.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.845.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.851.65.7
– Net Position:12,506-36,53724,031
– Gross Longs:147,784284,23559,719
– Gross Shorts:135,278320,77235,688
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.563.263.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-37.537.8-17.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 84,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,941 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.333.46.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.750.913.8
– Net Position:84,779-60,663-24,116
– Gross Longs:152,817115,14023,645
– Gross Shorts:68,038175,80347,761
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.448.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.4-29.7-28.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 75,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,541 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 71,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.028.56.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.048.39.1
– Net Position:75,982-67,843-8,139
– Gross Longs:165,26698,20523,318
– Gross Shorts:89,284166,04831,457
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.046.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:50.7-52.0-16.2

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,486 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,441 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.048.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.543.66.0
– Net Position:-11,48611,808-322
– Gross Longs:63,281122,03614,854
– Gross Shorts:74,767110,22815,176
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.678.014.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.92.6-17.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 38,262 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,659 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.436.710.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.174.34.2
– Net Position:38,262-45,9087,646
– Gross Longs:51,89344,94012,752
– Gross Shorts:13,63190,8485,106
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.046.077.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.1-0.816.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,529 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,541 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.739.57.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.328.99.0
– Net Position:-38,52947,109-8,580
– Gross Longs:105,967176,33531,795
– Gross Shorts:144,496129,22640,375
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.360.811.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.426.7-15.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
10 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Soybean Oil

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (19,344 contracts) with Soybean Oil (12,193 contracts), Lean Hogs (10,363 contracts), Soybeans (3,077 contracts) and Wheat (350 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-12,801 contracts), Sugar (-4,622 contracts), Live Cattle (-2,891 contracts), Coffee (-2,324 contracts), Cocoa (-739 contracts) with and Cotton (-580 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (87 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (83 percent), Live Cattle (64 percent) and Wheat (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (26 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (46.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.5 percent)
Sugar (29.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (30.6 percent)
Coffee (87.3 percent) vs Coffee previous week (89.5 percent)
Soybeans (25.6 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (83.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (76.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (33.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (38.5 percent)
Live Cattle (64.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (67.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (90.4 percent)
Cotton (21.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.2 percent)
Cocoa (47.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (48.1 percent)
Wheat (53.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.6 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (59 percent) and Live Cattle (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (32 percent) and Corn (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Sugar (-13 percent), Wheat (-8 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (21.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (19.0 percent)
Sugar (-13.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (3.7 percent)
Coffee (-5.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybeans (1.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (10.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (31.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.1 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.9 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-6.6 percent)
Live Cattle (46.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (55.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (58.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (59.9 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (9.4 percent)
Cocoa (0.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (3.7 percent)
Wheat (-7.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-6.3 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 102,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,344 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.345.08.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.148.611.0
– Net Position:102,648-60,229-42,419
– Gross Longs:422,877753,738141,285
– Gross Shorts:320,229813,967183,704
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.954.551.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.2-21.6-5.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 78,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,622 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,843 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.149.99.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.063.05.6
– Net Position:78,221-113,56035,339
– Gross Longs:216,399430,63284,008
– Gross Shorts:138,178544,19248,669
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.063.865.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.17.813.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,977 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,301 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.539.13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.669.12.7
– Net Position:62,977-65,4392,462
– Gross Longs:75,19685,2518,280
– Gross Shorts:12,219150,6905,818
– Long to Short Ratio:6.2 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.313.054.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.47.5-34.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -88,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,060 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.957.55.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.444.78.1
– Net Position:-88,983108,012-19,029
– Gross Longs:151,032486,19649,173
– Gross Shorts:240,015378,18468,202
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.675.462.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.0-1.87.7

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 76,538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 12,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.249.16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.364.74.4
– Net Position:76,538-86,1009,562
– Gross Longs:161,106271,06533,800
– Gross Shorts:84,568357,16524,238
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.320.451.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.8-31.521.5

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,324 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.646.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.252.55.6
– Net Position:14,324-38,60924,285
– Gross Longs:140,103273,36757,836
– Gross Shorts:125,779311,97633,551
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.362.465.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.918.93.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 78,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.433.36.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.348.713.4
– Net Position:78,838-55,259-23,579
– Gross Longs:147,783118,86124,364
– Gross Shorts:68,945174,12047,943
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.054.81.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.1-40.7-35.4

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 71,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 61,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.130.16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.548.49.2
– Net Position:71,441-63,383-8,058
– Gross Longs:159,447103,92123,706
– Gross Shorts:88,006167,30431,764
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.047.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.6-59.7-20.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,441 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.247.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.842.55.5
– Net Position:-12,44112,110331
– Gross Longs:64,436125,46114,904
– Gross Shorts:76,877113,35114,573
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.878.418.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-1.5-8.9

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.039.59.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.974.23.7
– Net Position:36,659-43,7077,048
– Gross Longs:50,41149,72811,646
– Gross Shorts:13,75293,4354,598
– Long to Short Ratio:3.7 to 10.5 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.448.272.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.7-1.57.2

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -22,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.638.17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.731.38.8
– Net Position:-22,54130,114-7,573
– Gross Longs:104,711168,87631,569
– Gross Shorts:127,252138,76239,142
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.847.916.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.59.8-13.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
03 Nov

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Corn & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Corn & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (65,464 contracts) with Live Cattle (8,955 contracts) and Lean Hogs (11,584 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Meal (-41,343 contracts), Soybeans (-13,765 contracts), Sugar (-10,708 contracts), Wheat (-5,809 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,687 contracts), Cotton (-4,504 contracts), Cocoa (-3,578 contracts) and with Coffee (-1,003 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (94 percent) and Coffee (90 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (77 percent), Live Cattle (67 percent) and Wheat (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (25 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (31 percent) and the Soybean Meal (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (44.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (36.1 percent)
Sugar (30.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (34.4 percent)
Coffee (89.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (90.5 percent)
Soybeans (24.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (28.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (76.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (79.2 percent)
Soybean Meal (38.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.5 percent)
Live Cattle (67.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (57.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (94.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (82.8 percent)
Cotton (22.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (48.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (51.8 percent)
Wheat (53.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (57.8 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (62 percent) and Live Cattle (55 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (40 percent), Corn (19 percent) and Soybeans (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-6 percent) and Coffee (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (19.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (8.4 percent)
Sugar (3.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (10.6 percent)
Coffee (-4.7 percent) vs Coffee previous week (2.8 percent)
Soybeans (10.0 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (15.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (40.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (40.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-6.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.1 percent)
Live Cattle (55.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (42.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (62.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (55.1 percent)
Cotton (9.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (25.1 percent)
Cocoa (3.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.9 percent)
Wheat (-6.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-0.6 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 83,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 65,464 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,840 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.145.78.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.147.910.9
– Net Position:83,304-36,852-46,452
– Gross Longs:405,262769,258137,217
– Gross Shorts:321,958806,110183,669
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.557.646.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.0-18.7-11.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 82,843 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,708 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 93,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.249.49.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.463.25.8
– Net Position:82,843-117,48034,637
– Gross Longs:222,539420,26583,668
– Gross Shorts:139,696537,74549,031
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):30.662.764.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-11.036.2

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 65,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,003 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,304 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.840.23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.571.82.7
– Net Position:65,301-68,0342,733
– Gross Longs:77,11986,4468,468
– Gross Shorts:11,818154,4805,735
– Long to Short Ratio:6.5 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.510.558.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.75.3-10.3

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -92,060 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,765 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.558.46.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.545.68.2
– Net Position:-92,060106,992-14,932
– Gross Longs:145,891487,28153,315
– Gross Shorts:237,951380,28968,247
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.875.273.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.0-12.015.8

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 69,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.048.95.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.962.14.8
– Net Position:64,345-69,7055,360
– Gross Longs:153,757259,00230,638
– Gross Shorts:89,412328,70725,278
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.728.534.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.1-37.712.1

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -41,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.445.19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.854.24.9
– Net Position:27,125-54,01626,891
– Gross Longs:138,571266,46755,890
– Gross Shorts:111,446320,48328,999
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.556.376.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.63.038.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 81,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 72,774 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.132.77.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.949.113.8
– Net Position:81,729-57,730-23,999
– Gross Longs:148,416115,37524,653
– Gross Shorts:66,687173,10548,652
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.151.80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:55.3-48.2-44.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 61,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 11,584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,494 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.230.56.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.746.99.0
– Net Position:61,078-54,210-6,868
– Gross Longs:149,265100,60022,724
– Gross Shorts:88,187154,81029,592
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.02.252.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:62.2-67.3-15.4

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,504 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.948.55.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.443.55.6
– Net Position:-11,86112,964-1,103
– Gross Longs:65,551127,37113,618
– Gross Shorts:77,412114,40714,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.99.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-7.0-15.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 37,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.838.78.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.372.73.4
– Net Position:37,398-44,5827,184
– Gross Longs:50,99550,90311,681
– Gross Shorts:13,59795,4854,497
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.147.373.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-5.011.5

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -22,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.738.97.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.231.39.3
– Net Position:-22,89131,600-8,709
– Gross Longs:106,934161,59630,120
– Gross Shorts:129,825129,99638,829
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.649.010.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.38.5-13.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
19 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Lean Hogs (7,337 contracts) with Live Cattle (6,658 contracts), Coffee (4,235 contracts), Cocoa (3,376 contracts), Sugar (2,387 contracts) and Cotton (999 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets were Corn (-41,223 contracts), Soybean Meal (-37,962 contracts), Soybeans (-14,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-7,454 contracts) and with Wheat (-216 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Lean Hogs

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (91 percent) and Lean Hogs (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Oil (70 percent), Wheat (60 percent) and Live Cattle (56 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (23 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Corn (33.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (38.5 percent)
Sugar (38.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (37.8 percent)
Coffee (91.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (87.0 percent)
Soybeans (31.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (34.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (70.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (74.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (52.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (68.4 percent)
Live Cattle (56.0 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (48.8 percent)
Lean Hogs (74.2 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (67.1 percent)
Cotton (22.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (22.3 percent)
Cocoa (54.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.7 percent)
Wheat (60.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (60.4 percent)

Lean Hogs & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (47 percent) and Live Cattle (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Oil (33 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Cotton (18 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

There are no markets with negative or lower trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (10.9 percent) vs Corn previous week (23.5 percent)
Sugar (11.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (19.5 percent)
Coffee (2.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-4.1 percent)
Soybeans (22.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (31.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (33.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (49.3 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (34.0 percent)
Live Cattle (44.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (46.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (43.6 percent)
Cotton (17.8 percent) vs Cotton previous week (16.5 percent)
Cocoa (11.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.9 percent)
Wheat (10.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (13.8 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -5,152 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -41,223 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.446.48.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.842.811.6
– Net Position:-5,15256,118-50,966
– Gross Longs:333,139721,807130,045
– Gross Shorts:338,291665,689181,011
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.269.940.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.9-8.9-24.6

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 105,473 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,086 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.746.910.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.864.85.5
– Net Position:105,473-145,33239,859
– Gross Longs:233,674382,06084,478
– Gross Shorts:128,201527,39244,619
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.654.771.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.5-19.144.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 66,950 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,235 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.939.43.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.872.12.4
– Net Position:66,950-70,1753,225
– Gross Longs:79,36684,8338,415
– Gross Shorts:12,416155,0085,190
– Long to Short Ratio:6.4 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.18.466.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-3.36.1

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -65,379 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -51,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.360.15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.250.28.1
– Net Position:-65,37994,150-28,771
– Gross Longs:154,755569,89048,476
– Gross Shorts:220,134475,74077,247
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.172.037.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.8-22.4-16.2

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 52,805 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.148.86.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.760.25.2
– Net Position:52,805-57,7774,972
– Gross Longs:142,778247,43731,176
– Gross Shorts:89,973305,21426,204
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.434.433.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.4-31.913.9

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 61,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -37,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.142.59.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.158.24.9
– Net Position:61,885-88,82226,937
– Gross Longs:147,108239,35154,329
– Gross Shorts:85,223328,17327,392
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.842.577.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.5-15.123.9

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 71,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,658 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.734.27.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.749.314.2
– Net Position:71,418-49,211-22,207
– Gross Longs:135,289110,88823,845
– Gross Shorts:63,871160,09946,052
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.062.10.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:44.3-37.4-42.5

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 40,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.234.26.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.745.39.0
– Net Position:40,642-33,303-7,339
– Gross Longs:127,041103,00119,861
– Gross Shorts:86,399136,30427,200
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.225.250.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.8-50.4-12.3

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 999 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.049.85.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.345.75.4
– Net Position:-10,64210,163479
– Gross Longs:64,409123,13913,752
– Gross Shorts:75,051112,97613,273
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.977.219.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.8-17.18.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 43,312 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,376 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,936 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.533.97.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.168.63.3
– Net Position:43,312-49,4196,107
– Gross Longs:57,76348,38410,781
– Gross Shorts:14,45197,8034,674
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.142.464.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.6-11.0-3.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -216 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,498 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.236.77.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.632.18.7
– Net Position:-13,71418,433-4,719
– Gross Longs:108,406146,20930,075
– Gross Shorts:122,120127,77634,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.239.032.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-11.45.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
12 Oct

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led higher by Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were slightly higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Corn (43,264 contracts) with Soybeans (22,511 contracts), Lean Hogs (14,156 contracts), Live Cattle (11,909 contracts), Soybean Oil (10,065 contracts) and with Cocoa (558 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-26,375 contracts) with Wheat (-7,366 contracts), Coffee (-5,098 contracts), Soybean Meal (-4,175 contracts) and Cotton (-1,553 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee & Soybean Oil

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (87 percent) and Soybean Oil (74 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (68 percent), Lean Hogs (67 percent) and Wheat (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (22 percent) and Soybeans (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently followed next by Sugar (38 percent) and Corn (38 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (38.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (33.0 percent)
Sugar (37.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (47.1 percent)
Coffee (87.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (92.0 percent)
Soybeans (34.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (29.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (74.4 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (68.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (68.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (70.1 percent)
Live Cattle (48.8 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (35.9 percent)
Lean Hogs (67.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (53.4 percent)
Cotton (22.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (23.3 percent)
Cocoa (50.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (50.1 percent)
Wheat (60.4 percent) vs Wheat previous week (65.7 percent)

Soybean Oil & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybean Oil (49 percent) and Lean Hogs (44 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Soybean Meal (34 percent), Live Cattle (33 percent) and Soybeans (31 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Coffee (-4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (23.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (20.1 percent)
Sugar (19.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (38.8 percent)
Coffee (-4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (31.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (24.8 percent)
Soybean Oil (49.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (50.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (34.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (37.1 percent)
Live Cattle (33.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (18.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (43.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (39.6 percent)
Cotton (16.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (21.2 percent)
Cocoa (9.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (10.7 percent)
Wheat (13.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (14.1 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 36,071 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 43,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.744.98.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.243.512.3
– Net Position:36,07120,228-56,299
– Gross Longs:323,640670,624127,234
– Gross Shorts:287,569650,396183,533
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.565.232.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.5-20.6-39.5

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 103,086 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.847.810.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.965.25.6
– Net Position:103,086-139,66736,581
– Gross Longs:230,158382,03081,111
– Gross Shorts:127,072521,69744,530
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.856.367.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.5-24.941.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,098 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,813 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.239.84.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.671.12.4
– Net Position:62,715-66,2543,539
– Gross Longs:76,74384,2098,621
– Gross Shorts:14,028150,4635,082
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.6 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.012.271.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.14.1-1.2

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -51,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 22,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.459.95.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.250.49.0
– Net Position:-51,18683,915-32,729
– Gross Longs:144,361528,19746,489
– Gross Shorts:195,547444,28279,218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.569.527.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.4-28.5-47.0

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 60,259 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,065 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,194 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.048.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.460.15.5
– Net Position:60,259-62,0431,784
– Gross Longs:150,758250,16230,403
– Gross Shorts:90,499312,20528,619
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.432.321.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.3-43.6-7.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 99,847 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 104,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.940.99.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.063.84.8
– Net Position:99,847-127,79727,950
– Gross Longs:160,991227,88354,493
– Gross Shorts:61,144355,68026,543
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.427.181.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.0-35.733.3

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,760 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11,909 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.234.57.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.948.913.7
– Net Position:64,760-45,798-18,962
– Gross Longs:128,051110,04924,596
– Gross Shorts:63,291155,84743,558
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.866.30.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.4-29.4-32.3

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 33,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,156 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.134.07.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.843.69.1
– Net Position:33,305-28,030-5,275
– Gross Longs:123,64699,84521,505
– Gross Shorts:90,341127,87526,780
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.131.059.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:43.6-48.2-6.5

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -11,641 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.349.45.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.145.15.2
– Net Position:-11,64110,4041,237
– Gross Longs:61,941120,80114,048
– Gross Shorts:73,582110,39712,811
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.377.423.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.5-16.111.7

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,936 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 558 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.631.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.565.93.0
– Net Position:39,936-46,9176,981
– Gross Longs:54,38743,66111,054
– Gross Shorts:14,45190,5784,073
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.5 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.745.071.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-9.5-2.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,366 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.335.47.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.830.49.4
– Net Position:-13,49819,744-6,246
– Gross Longs:111,760139,48230,672
– Gross Shorts:125,258119,73836,918
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.440.023.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.8-12.3-16.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities
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