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Archive for Metals – Page 6

23 Sep

Gold Reaches New Record as Investors Eye Further Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices soared to a new all-time high, with the troy ounce surpassing 2614 USD. This surge is primarily driven by expectations of additional interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision last week to reduce its interest rate by 50 basis points – the first such cut in four years – the market expects an equivalent reduction by the year’s end. This week, attention is focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including the Core PCE report and personal income and expenditures data. These indicators will provide insights into the potential direction of future Fed rate adjustments.

Gold becomes increasingly attractive as an investment during periods of lower lending costs, which typically lead to reduced yields on government bonds and a lower Dollar Index (DXY). Unlike other assets, gold does not generate coupon income, making it more appealing when other yields decline.

Additionally, the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Gaza has further boosted demand for gold. In times of heightened global uncertainty and conflict, gold traditionally performs well as a defensive investment.

Despite some strengthening of the US dollar, this has not significantly impacted the upward trajectory of gold prices.

Technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has broken through the resistance at 2611.00 USD and is now targeting 2672.00 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2611.00 USD may occur, followed by another growth phase targeting 2750.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with the signal line well above zero and ascending sharply.

The H1 chart shows that gold has reached 2611.00 USD and is now consolidating around this level. The consolidation range is defined between 2603.00 USD and 2625.25 USD. A breakout above 2625.25 USD would likely lead to a continuation of the upward momentum towards 2672.00 USD, confirming the ongoing bullish trend. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line progressing towards 80, indicating sustained upward momentum.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,565 contracts) with Silver (13,556 contracts), Platinum (11,975 contracts), Copper (6,870 contracts) and with Palladium (3,988 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decrease was Steel with a shortfall by -346 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (89.3 percent)
Silver (96.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (77.9 percent)
Copper (51.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.2 percent)
Platinum (76.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.7 percent)
Palladium (50.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (81.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.7 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (46 percent) and Platinum (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (28 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (0 percent) is the lowest trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.9 percent)
Silver (12.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.8 percent)
Copper (0.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (45.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 310,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.813.99.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.176.25.2
– Net Position:310,066-335,12725,061
– Gross Longs:369,73474,64752,976
– Gross Shorts:59,668409,77427,915
– Long to Short Ratio:6.2 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.061.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.6-24.2-18.8

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.320.020.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.975.07.1
– Net Position:58,298-77,30619,008
– Gross Longs:74,97828,13129,005
– Gross Shorts:16,680105,4379,997
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.38.362.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.5-8.5-7.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.734.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.146.95.9
– Net Position:19,682-25,6025,920
– Gross Longs:79,23570,41317,898
– Gross Shorts:59,55396,01511,978
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.648.453.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.12.3-16.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.924.011.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.258.25.3
– Net Position:21,978-27,0315,053
– Gross Longs:42,67919,0289,283
– Gross Shorts:20,70146,0594,230
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.719.542.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.2-29.6-9.1

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.358.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.720.111.1
– Net Position:-7,0007,226-226
– Gross Longs:5,10210,9831,853
– Gross Shorts:12,1023,7572,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.755.522.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.8-34.6-66.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.172.41.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.757.31.0
– Net Position:-3,9233,795128
– Gross Longs:3,80718,213376
– Gross Shorts:7,73014,418248
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.319.146.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-8.424.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
17 Sep

Gold (XAUUSD) Holds Near Record Highs Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices remained stable at around $2580 per troy ounce on Tuesday, hovering close to their record highs. This resilience in the gold market is largely driven by the weakening US dollar and heightened expectations for a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Current projections from the CME FedWatch tool indicate a 67% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in today’s Fed meeting, a significant increase from the 40% chance noted yesterday. Additionally, there’s a 33% probability of a more modest 25 basis point reduction. These expectations have significantly influenced market sentiment, prompting investors to flock to gold as a protective asset.

Recent geopolitical events, such as the attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, have also underscored the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, leading to a spike in demand during times of perceived instability.

The potential easing of US monetary policy, expected to be confirmed in Wednesday’s Fed announcement, further bolsters gold’s attractiveness. With its lack of coupon income, gold becomes more appealing during periods when yields on US government bonds are falling, and the Dollar Index (DXY) is weakening.

Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold broke through the consolidation range at 2530.00 and executed a growth wave up to 2586.00. The market has now reached the expansion potential of this range and is forming a new consolidation zone at these highs. The primary expectation is for a downward move to 2555.50, potentially extending into a corrective phase towards 2530.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, showing signal lines above zero but starting a downward trajectory, indicating the potential for a forthcoming decline.

On the H1 chart, gold reached up to 2588.88 and is currently consolidating just below this peak. A break below this consolidation could lead to a move down to 2555.50. Conversely, a break above could briefly push prices towards 2600.00 before a potential reversal to 2530.00. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing sharply downward towards 20, corroborates this expected downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
14 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (8,615 contracts) with Palladium (645 contracts) and Steel (155 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,057 contracts), Silver (-1,317 contracts) and with Copper (-149 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (95 percent) and Steel (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength scores are Platinum (45 percent) and Copper (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (95.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (97.2 percent)
Silver (77.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.7 percent)
Copper (45.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.3 percent)
Platinum (44.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.7 percent)
Palladium (21.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.1 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (15 percent) and Palladium (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.0 percent)
Silver (-5.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.2 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-27.2 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-28.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.6 percent)
Steel (8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 282,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 287,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.515.310.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.275.35.2
– Net Position:282,501-306,89924,398
– Gross Longs:340,00678,23250,937
– Gross Shorts:57,505385,13126,539
– Long to Short Ratio:5.9 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.15.959.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-13.1-6.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.823.621.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.171.78.4
– Net Position:44,742-62,08617,344
– Gross Longs:61,64930,38628,230
– Gross Shorts:16,90792,47210,886
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.925.354.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.89.2-19.2

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.834.89.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.543.96.8
– Net Position:12,812-18,4485,636
– Gross Longs:74,75470,85119,482
– Gross Shorts:61,94289,29913,846
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.254.651.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.914.8-33.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.624.012.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.843.44.8
– Net Position:10,003-16,4166,413
– Gross Longs:45,42720,37010,508
– Gross Shorts:35,42436,7864,095
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.747.863.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.512.3-4.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.160.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.511.17.3
– Net Position:-10,98811,049-61
– Gross Longs:6,24513,5131,569
– Gross Shorts:17,2332,4641,630
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.482.830.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-4.7-69.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.370.00.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.354.00.8
– Net Position:-3,5773,579-2
– Gross Longs:4,32715,668169
– Gross Shorts:7,90412,089171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.718.332.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-9.314.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
13 Sep

Gold sets a new record as prices rise higher

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices surged to 2,570 USD per troy ounce on Friday. New record highs became possible amid the weakening position of the US dollar and declining yields on US government bonds.

Gold prices began to rise after the release of another package of US macroeconomic statistics. The weekly initial jobless claims increased compared to the previous week and remained above average values. This signals a weakening employment market, which is confirmed by weak wage figures for August. Meanwhile, US producer prices increased slightly more than expected in August due to high maintenance costs. The overall trend still confirms easing inflationary pressures, which will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates next week.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut is 59% now, while the likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate cut is estimated at 41%. Yesterday, the ECB lowered its interest rate by 60 basis points to 3.65% per annum, which is a good signal for gold prices.

XAU/USD technical analysis

On the XAU/USD H4 chart, the market has broken above the consolidation range. A breakout of the 2,535.35 level can be considered as a market proposal to extend the growth wave to 2,570.00 and potentially further to 2,585.85. Today, the market has completed a wave, reaching 2,570.00. Subsequently, a technical decline to at least 2,541.55 (testing from above) could follow. Once the price hits this level, a growth structure might develop, aiming for the local target of 2,585.85. It is worth noting that breaking through the 2,535.35 level may result in a continuous growth structure to the 2,595.95 level, without a significant correction. This is the main target. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and pointing strictly upwards.

On the XAU/USD H1 chart, the market has completed a growth wave, reaching 2,570.00. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. With a downward breakout, the price could decline to 2,541.55. An upward breakout will open the potential for a continuation of the trend to 2,585.85. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is around 80 and poised for a decline to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel (1,160 contracts) with Palladium (227 contracts) also recording a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-14,345 contracts), Gold (-6,887 contracts), Silver (-6,127 contracts) and with Copper (-4,184 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (97 percent) and Steel (82 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (17 percent) and Platinum (22 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (97.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (100.0 percent)
Silver (79.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (88.0 percent)
Copper (45.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (21.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.0 percent)
Palladium (16.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.1 percent)
Steel (82.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (77.7 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (10 percent) and Gold (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-29 percent) and Copper (-27 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with Silver (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (6.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.9 percent)
Silver (-7.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.8 percent)
Copper (-27.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-38.9 percent)
Platinum (-28.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-16.6 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-10.3 percent)
Steel (10.2 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 287,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 294,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.415.710.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.176.85.3
– Net Position:287,558-311,88724,329
– Gross Longs:339,15780,41651,198
– Gross Shorts:51,599392,30326,869
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.24.058.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.0-4.2-12.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 46,059 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -6,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,186 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.023.322.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.872.68.2
– Net Position:46,059-64,52918,470
– Gross Longs:64,09930,53829,148
– Gross Shorts:18,04095,06710,678
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.722.660.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.210.3-19.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 12,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,184 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,145 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.335.09.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.944.46.4
– Net Position:12,961-18,9646,003
– Gross Longs:77,29070,73818,996
– Gross Shorts:64,32989,70212,993
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.354.154.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.229.0-26.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 1,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,733 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.127.114.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.538.74.6
– Net Position:1,388-10,1418,753
– Gross Longs:41,92423,58712,771
– Gross Shorts:40,53633,7284,018
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.7 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.764.6100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.926.812.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,633 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 227 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.861.57.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:80.58.97.0
– Net Position:-11,63311,62211
– Gross Longs:6,14513,5901,551
– Gross Shorts:17,7781,9681,540
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 16.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.786.934.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.61.2-38.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,732 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,160 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,892 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.169.80.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:38.550.91.2
– Net Position:-3,7323,836-104
– Gross Longs:4,06614,153135
– Gross Shorts:7,79810,317239
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.4 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.119.221.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.2-10.920.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
06 Sep

Gold rallies as market bets on rapid Fed monetary easing

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold has returned to growth. On Friday, a troy ounce of the precious metal was priced at 2517 USD. The price has stabilised as the market awaits the release of August’s crucial US employment report. The data could prompt a revision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, which is particularly important given the short time left before the Fed meets.

Lower interest rates could reduce the cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. Given the weak employment market signals, the market believes the Fed will be forced to act more decisively.

The latest statistics showed that private employers in the US hired at the slowest pace in 3.5 years in August. This follows a decline in the number of job vacancies. In addition, manufacturing activity in the economy declined. All this appears to be a negative factor indicating the state of the US economy and fuelling expectations of a 50-basis points rate cut in September. Investors are currently pricing in a 41% probability of such a scenario, which is relatively high. Considering fundamental factors, it is reasonable to assume that gold prices will continue to rise.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD has received support at 2472.00. Currently, the structure of a growth wave towards 2513.62 is being formed. Today, the market is creating a consolidation range around this level. An upside breakout will open the potential for growth towards 2555.50. A break above the 2522.00 level may signal the development of a further growth wave. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero and sloping upwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market has completed a growth wave to 2513.62. Currently, the range is extended upwards to the level of 2523.20 and downwards to the level of 2504.00. In the case of a downward breakout, a decline to 2491.55 may occur. Conversely, an upward breakout could continue the trend to 2555.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is near the level of 80 and is preparing to decline to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
31 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,192 contracts) with Silver (2,862 contracts), Platinum (907 contracts), Palladium (405 contracts) and Steel (279 contracts) also registering positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a decrease by -3,129 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.7 percent)
Silver (88.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (84.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.1 percent)
Platinum (60.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.6 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.1 percent)
Steel (77.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.6 percent)

Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (7 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-39 percent) and Platinum (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.1 percent)
Silver (-10.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.9 percent)
Copper (-38.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-33.3 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.9 percent)
Palladium (-10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.9 percent)
Steel (7.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 291,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.816.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.478.15.1
– Net Position:294,445-322,31927,874
– Gross Longs:343,33085,10254,689
– Gross Shorts:48,885407,42126,815
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-5.013.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.425.721.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.676.77.6
– Net Position:52,186-72,14019,954
– Gross Longs:65,71536,44430,674
– Gross Shorts:13,529108,58410,720
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.014.167.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.812.9-17.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.532.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.545.05.3
– Net Position:17,145-26,0028,857
– Gross Longs:89,06370,51820,271
– Gross Shorts:71,91896,52011,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.248.071.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.937.8-12.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.722.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.351.14.4
– Net Position:15,733-22,1576,424
– Gross Longs:42,95117,2049,838
– Gross Shorts:27,21839,3613,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.032.572.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.618.5-12.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.557.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.611.06.5
– Net Position:-11,86011,921-61
– Gross Longs:7,07414,7591,623
– Gross Shorts:18,9342,8381,684
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.189.030.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.312.7-18.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.876.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.556.50.9
– Net Position:-4,8924,942-50
– Gross Longs:3,17718,955180
– Gross Shorts:8,06914,013230
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.723.426.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-7.77.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
27 Aug

Major New Upleg Starting in Copper?

Source: Clive Maund (8/27/24)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares an update where he explains why now is a great time to buy all things copper.

Copper looks ready for its next big runup, which could be massive. It has been performing very well indeed technically, as we can see on its latest 6-month chart below.

We turned bullish on it a little early a few weeks back at the time when it was at the Left Shoulder low of what has turned out to be a fine small Head-and-Shoulders bottom — after such a heavy correction, it was entitled to spend some time forming an intermediate reversal pattern.

That it has done, and as we can see on the chart, it is now complete — and according to Bloomberg yesterday morning, copper is now starting to break out, both from the H&S bottom and from the corrective downtrend, which at this point are coincident.

THIS THEREFORE IS A GOOD POINT TO BUY COPPER AND ALL THINGS COPPER.

 

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Financial News Metals
27 Aug

Gold’s Price Prospects Amid Middle East Tensions and Fed Policies

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have recently dipped to 2507 USD per troy ounce but are poised for a potential rebound due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. Additionally, anticipations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve in September further bolster gold’s outlook.

Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a likely rate cut as US inflation approaches the target of 2%, with a particular focus on the softening employment market impacted by prolonged high interest rates. Mary Daly of the FRB San Francisco echoed Powell’s sentiment, advocating for policy adjustments which support a favourable environment for gold as lower interest rates typically decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.

Geopolitical Influences

The situation in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and the Gaza Strip, remains volatile. Despite initial hopes for a peace agreement facilitated by US diplomatic efforts, the conflict has reignited, driving up demand for gold. Such geopolitical uncertainties typically enhance gold’s appeal as a protective investment during times of crisis.

Technical Analysis of XAU/USD

In the latest XAUUSD analysis, gold exhibited a downward impulse to 2470.77 USD, followed by a correction to 2526.00 USD. It is forming another downward wave targeting 2480.20 USD, expecting to break this level and potentially move towards 2435.55 USD. The MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but pointing downward, supports this bearish scenario.

After completing a corrective structure to 2526.00 USD, gold is expected to form a downward wave to 2500.00 USD. Upon reaching this target, a brief rise to 2513.33 USD might occur before continuing downward to 2480.20 USD. This pattern suggests only half of the anticipated downward trend. The Stochastic oscillator, near 50 and expected to rise to 80, indicates potential short-term gains before resuming the downward movement.

Summary

The interplay of easing monetary policies by the Fed and increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East creates a complex but potentially favourable backdrop for gold prices. Investors might see gold as an attractive investment, a safe-haven asset and a hedge against potential currency devaluation and inflation uncertainties. These factors and technical indicators suggest a volatile but upward potential trajectory for gold prices in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions
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