Archive for Metals – Page 5

15 Sep

Gold in Turmoil: All Eyes on the Fed

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold retreated below 3,630 USD per ounce on Monday, pulling back from last week’s record highs as investors locked in profits ahead of a pivotal US Federal Reserve policy decision.

Markets are widely anticipating a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, driven by mounting evidence of labour market softness. Expectations of further easing in 2025 are also being priced in.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, investor attention will focus on key US data releases, including retail sales and industrial production, which may offer additional clues about the health of the economy.

In a move that has raised eyebrows, the Trump administration on Sunday appealed to a federal court to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, heightening concerns over the central bank’s independence.

Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring US-China trade negotiations, which resume in Madrid on Tuesday for a second day of talks.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 3,486 USD before breaking upward to complete an impulsive move towards 3,674 USD. The market is now showing signs of exhaustion, and a decline towards 3,591 USD appears likely. Currently, price action suggests the formation of a new consolidation range around 3,636 USD. A break below this range could extend the correction toward 3,486 USD, while an upward breakout might see a retest of 3,700 USD before any significant reversal. The MACD indicator supports this corrective outlook: the signal line remains above zero but has diverged from the histogram, indicating weakening momentum and potential downside.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair formed a consolidation range around 3,654 USD before breaking downward to complete the first leg of a correction at 3,611 USD. Following a retracement to 3,647 USD, the market appears set to resume its decline towards 3,593 USD. A break below this level could open the door to a deeper drop toward 3,486 USD. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this bearish near-term view, with its signal line hovering above 80 and poised to turn lower towards 20.

Conclusion

Gold is consolidating near all-time highs as traders await clarity from the Fed. While the broader bullish trend remains supported by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainty, a short-term correction is underway. The Fed’s tone – along with developments in US-China talks and political pressure on the Fed – will be crucial in determining whether this pullback deepens or becomes a buying opportunity.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
13 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Gold Speculator Bets rise to 29-Week High

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (12,210 contracts) with Copper (1,583 contracts) and Palladium (306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-2,642 contracts), Silver (-1,986 contracts) and Steel (-383 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Gold Bets rise to 29-Week High

Gold speculator bets were up for the third straight week this week and for the eighth time out of the last 11 weeks. Gold speculator bets have now risen by almost +50,000 contracts just in the last two weeks alone.

This boost in speculator bets has pushed the current speculator net position to a total of +261,740 net contracts. This marks the highest level in 29 weeks, dating back to February 18th of 2025. The gold speculator position has now been above the +200,000 contract level for 11 consecutive weeks.

Palladium Leads the Metals Price Performance

The metals market’s performance this week was led by Palladium, which jumped by over 9%. Palladium has now been up by roughly 25% over the past 90 days.

Silver was up by 3% this week, and has now been up by 15% over the past 30 days, while racing higher by almost 30% in the past 90 days.

Copper came in third with a 2.51% gain on the week. Copper is the only metal that has been down over the last 90 days, with a -2.05% decrease.

Platinum rose this week by 1.59%, and has been up by a significant 40.25% over the past 90 days. Gold rose by 1.34% this week, and has been up by roughly 9% in the past 90 days.

Steel was the only metal to see a weekly decline. Steel dropped by -4.65%, although Steel has been up by roughly 7% in the past 30 days, and has been higher by 19.53% over the last 90 days.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (82 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (76 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Platinum (47 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.0 percent)
Silver (82.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (58.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.1 percent)
Platinum (46.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (53.5 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.1 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (63.0 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-14 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.3 percent)
Silver (-7.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-6.3 percent)
Copper (-9.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.2 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.2 percent)
Palladium (-14.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.1 percent)
Steel (-9.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 261,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,210 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,530 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.714.511.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.468.19.3
– Net Position:261,740-273,37511,635
– Gross Longs:324,87573,85058,990
– Gross Shorts:63,135347,22547,355
– Long to Short Ratio:5.1 to 10.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.623.912.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.5-5.2-80.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 53,937 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,986 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.225.620.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.872.58.1
– Net Position:53,937-73,40219,465
– Gross Longs:72,45040,16332,191
– Gross Shorts:18,513113,56512,726
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.315.664.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.36.9-0.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 27,241 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,583 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.931.28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.848.54.0
– Net Position:27,241-36,0158,774
– Gross Longs:64,29365,05217,170
– Gross Shorts:37,052101,0678,396
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.639.470.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.40.954.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 14,356 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.021.611.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.843.05.1
– Net Position:14,356-20,2105,854
– Gross Longs:53,05720,51110,723
– Gross Shorts:38,70140,7214,869
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.954.366.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.612.316.1

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,048 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.436.515.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.626.45.9
– Net Position:-3,7421,9631,779
– Gross Longs:8,4537,1132,931
– Gross Shorts:12,1955,1501,152
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.412.281.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.211.114.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -56 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -383 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.674.42.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.974.91.5
– Net Position:-56-107163
– Gross Longs:4,45316,054477
– Gross Shorts:4,50916,161314
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.040.256.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.59.8-5.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
08 Sep

Gold Poised to Test Fresh Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold held near historic levels on Monday, trading around 3,590 USD per ounce, bolstered by a softer-than-expected US labour market report for August. Employment growth fell short of forecasts, while the unemployment rate climbed to its highest level since 2021. This has reinforced market expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September, with investors pricing in a 92% probability of such a move.

Further supporting the bullish sentiment are growing doubts over the Fed’s independence, as former President Donald Trump continues to criticise the central bank – driving increased safe-haven demand for gold.

Demand was also reinforced by the People’s Bank of China, which added to its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month in August as part of a broader strategy to diversify its holdings away from the US dollar.

Additionally, the metal gained support from trade policy developments, with the Trump administration exempting gold and certain other metals from its latest tariff list.

In summary, gold remains near all-time highs due to a combination of dovish Fed expectations, political uncertainty, and sustained central bank demand.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has completed another leg higher, reaching 3,600.07 USD. A corrective pullback toward the former resistance, which has now turned into support at around 3,550 USD, appears likely. Given the current fundamental backdrop, any test of this support may be followed by another upward wave, with initial targets at 3,600 USD and then 3,650 USD. The MACD indicator provides technical support for this scenario. Although the histogram and signal line remain above zero, both are declining – suggesting a near-term correction before the broader uptrend resumes.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair tested 3,600.07 USD and is now forming a corrective decline. The initial support target is 3,550 USD. Holding this level could prompt renewed buying, supporting a continuation of the upward trend. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this view, with its signal line testing the 50.0 level, indicating potential for further near-term consolidation or a mild retracement.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported by a confluence of fundamental factors, including expectations of Fed easing, geopolitical tensions, and robust institutional demand. While a short-term technical correction is likely, the broader bullish trend remains intact, with scope for further gains towards 3,650 USD.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions
07 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets boosted led by Gold & Silver

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Silver

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (35,219 contracts) with Silver (9,457 contracts), Platinum (1,212 contracts), Steel (244 contracts) and Palladium (93 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a dip by -572 contracts on the week.

Gold and Silver lead Weekly Price Performance

Metals markets performance this week was led by both Gold and Silver. Gold showed a weekly gain of 5.09% while over the past 30 days, Gold is up by 6.7%, and over the last 90 days, Gold is higher by 7.11%.

Next up, Silver almost matched Gold with a 4.74% gain, while over the last 30 days, Silver is up by 4.83%, and over the last 90 days, Silver is higher by over 23%.

Steel was a little higher this week with a 0.75% advance. Over the last 30 days, Steel has been up by over -7% but over the last 90 days, Steel is up by approximately 19%.

Palladium saw a small gain of 0.38% this week. Palladium has been down by over -9% in the last 30 days, but has been higher by 17.38% in the last 90 days.

Platinum edged up by 0.33% this week. Platinum has been down by -1.79% over the last 30 days, but has been surging higher over the last 90 days by 42.96%. Copper saw a minuscule 0.04% gain this week while over the last 30 days, Copper has tumbled by -22.75% and over the last 90 days, Copper is down by -8.21%.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (85 percent) and Gold (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Palladium (74 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (75.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.6 percent)
Silver (85.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (72.4 percent)
Copper (57.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.7 percent)
Platinum (53.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (50.5 percent)
Palladium (74.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (73.4 percent)
Steel (63.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (61.1 percent)

 

Gold & Steel have least negative 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) and Steel (-2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals with the least negative trend scores. The overall negative trend scores show that despite high speculator strength levels, the sentiment has cooled off somewhat over that past 6 weeks.

Copper (-13 percent), Palladium (-13 percent) and Platinum (-9 percent) lead the downside with the most negative trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (0.5 percent)
Silver (-6.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-17.3 percent)
Copper (-13.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-13.5 percent)
Platinum (-9.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-8.8 percent)
Palladium (-13.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.2 percent)
Steel (-1.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-2.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 249,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 35,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 214,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.115.011.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.470.66.5
– Net Position:249,530-273,89824,368
– Gross Longs:315,79673,91956,635
– Gross Shorts:66,266347,81732,267
– Long to Short Ratio:4.8 to 10.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.023.755.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.33.0-16.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 55,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.025.320.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.772.29.3
– Net Position:55,923-74,19718,274
– Gross Longs:74,46640,12133,008
– Gross Shorts:18,543114,31814,734
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.014.159.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.36.0-1.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 25,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -572 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,230 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.232.39.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.149.64.8
– Net Position:25,658-33,9508,292
– Gross Longs:61,04463,12017,732
– Gross Shorts:35,38697,0709,440
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.141.267.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.25.745.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.719.811.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.645.05.6
– Net Position:16,998-22,4305,432
– Gross Longs:52,15617,57510,365
– Gross Shorts:35,15840,0054,933
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.548.361.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.24.024.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -4,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,141 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.437.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.225.65.9
– Net Position:-4,0482,1061,942
– Gross Longs:7,7146,8823,050
– Gross Shorts:11,7624,7761,108
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.113.387.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.18.820.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 244 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.974.12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.376.51.3
– Net Position:327-492165
– Gross Longs:4,28415,205430
– Gross Shorts:3,95715,697265
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.037.257.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.72.3-9.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
03 Sep

Lithium Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Disruptions

Source: Streetwise Reports (9/2/25) 

The lithium market faced renewed volatility with supply disruptions in China and South America. Read more to see how Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) fits into this shifting landscape.

The lithium market experienced renewed volatility in August as supply interruptions in China and South America lifted prices, even without a fundamental shortage. On August 10, Reuters reported that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) suspended production at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province after its permit expired. The mine represented about 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, or roughly 3% of forecast global output for 2025. Reuters noted that the announcement “sparked a surge in lithium futures and miners’ share prices, amid a broader crackdown on overcapacity.”

Discovery Alert wrote on August 11 that CATL’s suspension represented “a significant disruption to global lithium supply chains,” with futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange immediately jumping 8%, marking the sharpest daily movement in more than 18 months. The site noted that lithium’s nearly 90% price decline since its 2022 peak had left producers struggling, and that this disruption provided “the first significant upward price catalyst” after two years of declines.

Stockhead wrote on August 12 that Australian spodumene producers quickly rallied on the news, with Liontown Resources Limited (LTR.AX) gaining 17.75% to close at 99.5 cents and Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS.AX) jumping 19.17% to US$2.30. Other producers such as Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX), IGO Limited (IGO.AX), and Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL:NASDAQ) also posted double-digit gains.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence wrote in a special issue dated August 14 that the Jianxiawo site accounted for around 30% of Jiangxi’s lithium output, ~3% of global LCE supply, and ~5% of global concentrate. The report confirmed that battery-grade lithium carbonate trades in China were assessed at 7.5% higher week-over-week by August 13. Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, stated that “EXW China lithium carbonate prices are already heading as high as 80,000–87,000 RMB/tonne (US$11.1–12.1/kg), after operations at CATL’s Jianxiawo mine have been suspended.”

Concerns grew further in mid-August when reports surfaced of an acid tank explosion at Albemarle’s La Negra chemical plant in Chile. According to the Benchmark report, one of the plant’s three production lines was forced offline for three days. The disruption was limited, but the news added to supply concerns that were already influencing market sentiment.

Sector Dynamics: Lithium Outlook Stabilizing Amid U.S. Growth and Chinese Supply Cuts

Despite the shutdowns, Benchmark noted that China held significant inventories of approximately 130,000 tonnes LCE in July. The report explained that “this week’s price movements are primarily being driven by sentiment and reflect the speculative nature of lithium trading in China,” as buyers evaluated the duration of mine closures and their impact on downstream converters.

On July 21, Investing News Network highlighted that despite multi-quarter price weakness, long-term drivers such as electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand remained intact. Paul Lusty told the outlet that “the fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, mega trends that we see developing within the global economy; the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system, and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence.”

Although disruptions at Jianxiawo and La Negra did not create an immediate structural deficit, sentiment-driven gains underscored the market’s sensitivity to regional supply interruptions. The August 14 Benchmark report concluded that while “the market will not move into deficit in the near term or by 2026,” uncertainty over the duration of closures and regulatory actions in China was likely to keep prices elevated in the short term.

In a Stockhead Mining article dated August 21, Kristie Batten highlighted the evolving role of the United States in lithium production and policy. While the U.S. had only one operating lithium mine in 2025, exploration investment surged, placing it third globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Alice Yu noted that the U.S. imported roughly 90% of its lithium supply in 2024, largely through intermediaries in South Korea and Japan that rely on refined Chinese material.

Yu reported that geopolitical shifts and energy security concerns were now shaping U.S. policy, with recent budget changes reducing support for electric vehicles while redirecting funds toward domestic critical minerals capacity. The U.S. Department of Energy recently announced plans to deploy nearly US$1 billion in funding for critical minerals, including up to US$500 million for lithium-related processing and recycling, and US$50 million for emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction.

Despite recent price weakness, spodumene hit a 2025 high of US$1,000 per ton earlier in August. Two permitted U.S. projects, Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass and Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge, remain under development, with Thacker Pass expected to enter production in late 2027. Additional projects designated as FAST-41 Transparency Projects aim to expedite permitting.

Yu concluded that strong 2024 exploration activity could yield long-term production gains, reinforcing the strategic imperative for supply diversification outside China.

UBS analysts signaled renewed optimism in the lithium sector following Chinese regulatory interventions that temporarily shuttered major production assets. According to a Stockhead on August 27, UBS upgraded its spodumene price forecasts by 9 to 32% across the 2026 to 2028 window, citing supply risks that could impact up to 240,000 tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent—roughly 15% of global supply. The bank now forecasts spodumene prices of US$1,250 per ton in 2026, US$1,150 per ton in 2027, and US$1,350 per ton in 2028.

UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw and Sky Han stated that additional mine suspensions in China’s Yichun region and potential curtailments in Qinghai could further strain supply. At the time of the report, lithium carbonate prices had risen 18% since late July, following the suspension of CATL’s Jianxiawo mine and various operations by Zijin’s Zangge Mining. UBS’s base case for 2025 includes a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 RMB per ton (approximately US$13,980 per ton). The analysts also raised equity ratings and price targets for several producers, citing market signals of tightening supply and growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage.

Despite improvements in price sentiment, the report also noted downside risks if suspended operations return to market or high-cost supply from Africa is reactivated. As of the report date, lithium carbonate was priced at US$11,388 per ton, and 6% Li₂O spodumene at US$920 per ton.

Atlas Lithium Corp.

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is a lithium development company focused on advancing its Neves Project to production. The Neves Project has received operational permitting, and its dense media separation plant has been acquired and transported to Brazil. With approximately 797 square kilometers of lithium mineral rights, Atlas Lithium owns the largest lithium exploration footprint in Brazil among publicly listed companies. Additionally, Atlas Lithium currently holds an approximate 30% ownership stake in Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (JUPGF:OTCQB).

On August 18, Atlas reported strong exploration progress at Salinas. Initial drilling confirmed spodumene-rich mineralization close to surface, with grades above 2.0% Li₂O at depths of just 23 meters. CEO Marc Fogassa said the early results “exceeded our expectations,” noting the project’s potential as a future growth frontier alongside Neves.

The Neves Lithium Project remains Atlas’s top priority. A definitive feasibility study prepared by SGS Canada projected an internal rate of return of 145%, a net present value of US$539 million, and a payback period of 11 months. Operating costs were estimated at US$489 per tonne, placing Neves among Brazil’s lowest-cost projects. With mining concession approvals in place and a processing plant already transported to Brazil, Atlas is progressing Neves toward production while expanding its regional exploration portfolio.

Analysts have highlighted the company’s positioning. On July 14, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko Ihle maintained a Buy rating with an US$18 target, citing low operating costs and offtake and investment agreements totaling US$80 million. On August 5, Alliance Global Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky reiterated a Buy rating following release of the Neves DFS. He called the study “an inflection point on the road to lithium production,” referencing its US$540 million net present value at a lithium price assumption of US$1,700 per tonne and modest capital expenditure requirement of US$58 million.

What Could Drive Atlas Lithium Forward

Atlas Lithium’s near-term catalysts remain centered on the Neves Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, as specified in its August 2025 Investor Presentation. A definitive feasibility study projected an after-tax net present value of US$539 million, an internal rate of return of 145%, and a payback period of just 11 months. Average annual production was estimated at 146,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate at an operating cost of US$489 per tonne, supported by a direct capital expenditure requirement of US$57.6 million.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ)

Retail: 52%
Insiders & Management: 27%
Strategic Investors: 11%
Institutional: 10%
52%
27%
11%
10%
*Share Structure as of 8/14/2025
Source: Atlas Lithium Corp.

 

The company has already secured all necessary operational permits to assemble and operate its processing plant and to begin mining operations at one of its ore bodies, with a dense media separation facility acquired and transported to Brazil. Atlas also benefits from strategic partnerships with Tier 1 buyers. Agreements with Chengxin, Yahua, and Mitsui & Co. included US$40 million in stock purchases already received and a committed US$40 million prepayment for offtake.

Exploration provides further optionality. The Neves Project hosts 84 mapped pegmatite outcrops, with over 4,500 soil samples collected and multiple anomalies identified for follow-up drilling. Early drilling at the Salinas Project, wholly owned by Atlas, has also confirmed near-surface spodumene mineralization, positioning it as a potential expansion frontier.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company’s shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 10%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 53%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical.
  3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Metals Opinions
02 Sep

Gold Near Record Highs Poised for a New Peak

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices extended their rally on Tuesday, reaching 3,490 USD per troy ounce, approaching an all-time high. The metal found support in growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September, along with a concurrent weakening of the US dollar.

Last week’s US inflation report bolstered hopes of a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy. Markets are now pricing in an almost 90% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Officials from the central bank itself reinforced this view after Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, openly expressed her support for such a move.

The key event risk this week will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, expected to define the scale and pace of the upcoming rate-cutting cycle.

US trade policy is also creating substantial uncertainty. An appeals court ruled that the majority of tariffs imposed by Donald Trump were illegal, but kept them in force until 14 October to allow for an appeal to the Supreme Court. This political uncertainty is further fuelling demand for safe-haven assets.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 chart:

The XAU/USD pair completed an upward wave towards the 3,508.65 USD level. The focus now shifts to a potential corrective wave towards the breached resistance level, which could now function as support. The target for this correction is 3,469 USD. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s supportive economic outlook, a test of this support could see prices stage another rally, with the first target likely being the 3,530 USD mark. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose histogram and signal line remain above zero and continue to rise, confirming the potential continuation of the upward trend. However, minor corrections cannot be ruled out.

H1 chart:

After testing the 3,500 USD level, the price is forming a corrective wave. The target for this pullback could be the support at 3,469 USD. Testing this level could pave the way for the resumption of the upward trend. This outlook is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal lines, after a period of increase, are now declining towards 50.0.

Conclusion

A combination of dovish Fed expectations, a softer dollar, and geopolitical trade uncertainties continues to support gold prices. The technical picture suggests a brief period of consolidation or a shallow pullback is likely before a potential retest of record highs.

Disclaimer:

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Metals Opinions
30 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Steel & Platinum

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (1,721 contracts), Steel (741 contracts), Platinum (736 contracts) and Copper (198 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Palladium (-407 contracts) and Silver (-83 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Price Changes led by Gold & Silver

Metals markets price performance this week was led by Gold and Silver, which were higher by just about the same percent of 2.40%. Copper came in next with a 1.30% gain on the week while Platinum was higher by 1.14%.

Palladium was lower this week by -1.52%, followed by Steel, which saw the biggest loss on the week by -4.70%.

Strength Scores led by Silver & Palladium

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (74 percent) and Palladium (73 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (62 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (61.0 percent)
Silver (74.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.2 percent)
Copper (57.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (57.5 percent)
Platinum (53.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.5 percent)
Palladium (73.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.4 percent)
Steel (61.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.4 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (0.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals Gold was the only positive mover in the latest trends data and highlights the cool-off in sentiment for the metals market currently.

Silver (-16 percent), Copper (-13 percent) and Platinum (-8 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (0.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.7 percent)
Silver (-16.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.0 percent)
Copper (-13.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-12.6 percent)
Platinum (-8.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-13.5 percent)
Palladium (-4.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.5 percent)
Steel (-2.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-7.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 214,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 212,590 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.116.412.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.873.04.5
– Net Position:214,311-250,96536,654
– Gross Longs:275,76772,90856,712
– Gross Shorts:61,456323,87320,058
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.2 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.632.096.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.5-0.1-3.1

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,466 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,549 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.029.120.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.772.16.8
– Net Position:46,466-68,28521,819
– Gross Longs:68,22746,13432,659
– Gross Shorts:21,761114,41910,840
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.119.476.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.212.57.9

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 26,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,032 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.934.89.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.153.34.6
– Net Position:26,230-34,9948,764
– Gross Longs:56,76266,22217,555
– Gross Shorts:30,532101,2168,791
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.740.370.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.56.145.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 15,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 736 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,050 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.619.311.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.244.45.0
– Net Position:15,786-21,4415,655
– Gross Longs:49,31416,5189,976
– Gross Shorts:33,52837,9594,321
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.344.963.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.33.224.3

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,141 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -407 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.334.618.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.225.06.3
– Net Position:-4,1411,8232,318
– Gross Longs:7,4336,5523,505
– Gross Shorts:11,5744,7291,187
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.411.1100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.2-4.439.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 83 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -658 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.776.31.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.477.31.2
– Net Position:83-235152
– Gross Longs:4,54418,488431
– Gross Shorts:4,46118,723279
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.139.255.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.83.3-9.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
29 Aug

August was the best month for gold since April

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold (XAUUSD) is holding steady near USD 3,410 per ounce on Friday, just shy of its monthly high, and is set to close its second straight week with gains. The metal is supported by a weaker dollar and consistent safe-haven demand as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path lingers.

Dollar weakness and Fed uncertainty support gold

Investors are moving into gold amid concerns that political pressure on the Fed could accelerate the pace of rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September. Further support came from Fed Board member Christopher Waller, who said he expects rates to begin falling as early as next month, aligning with other policymakers’ dovish stance.

Attention now turns to the upcoming US household spending report, which is forecast to show stronger growth. This follows revised Q2 GDP data, which revealed slightly higher-than-expected economic expansion. However, concerns about rising inflation are also mounting, keeping gold attractive as a hedge.

Overall, August is shaping up to be gold’s strongest month since April, with prices consolidating at the upper end of the range, underpinned by a mix of dollar weakness and growing economic uncertainty.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

On the H4 timeframe, gold completed a growth wave to 3,423, marking a local target. A decline towards 3,371 is now in play, with the market continuing to develop a wide consolidation range around this level. A downward breakout would open the way to 3,290, while an upward breakout could extend the range to 3,431 before the downtrend resumes towards 3,290. The MACD indicator supports this view: its signal line is above zero at the highs but has left the histogram zone, a sign of potential weakness and the beginning of a move towards new lows.

On the H1 chart, XAUUSD formed a consolidation range around 3,368 and broke upwards, completing the third growth wave at 3,420. The market has now started a downward correction towards 3,368. After reaching this level, a compact consolidation range is expected. A downward breakout would confirm continuation of the decline to 3,290, while an upward breakout could produce another growth structure towards at least 3,425. The Stochastic oscillator confirms the bearish correction, with its signal line below 50 and heading strictly towards 20.

Summary

Gold is consolidating near highs after its best monthly performance since April. While short-term corrections towards 3,371 and 3,290 remain likely, broader support from a weak dollar, Fed policy uncertainty, and inflation concerns continues to underpin the bullish outlook. Resistance levels are at 3,423–3,431, while support lies at 3,371 and 3,290.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
27 Aug

Gold Surges Amid Mounting Global Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of gold reached 3,383 USD per ounce on Wednesday, trading near a two-week high. The rally is being driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets, fuelled by growing concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

US President Donald Trump has signalled a potential legal battle following the resignation of Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, whom he had accused of misconduct. Her departure has reignited debates about the central bank’s autonomy and the issue of political pressure. Cook’s exit could accelerate the timing of interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump’s public calls for a more accommodative monetary policy. Market pricing currently indicates an approximately 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September.

Trade tensions have further contributed to market unease. US authorities stated that a trade agreement with India before a key deadline is unlikely, which could result in tariffs on Indian goods doubling to 50%. Conversely, Indonesia has secured an exemption from tariffs on a range of raw materials. Simultaneously, Trump has threatened to impose severe tariffs on Chinese exports of rare earth metals, significantly escalating tensions between the two economic superpowers.

Political risks are also intensifying in Europe. The French Prime Minister continues to promote an austerity plan ahead of a crucial confidence vote, creating additional political uncertainty in the region.

Technical Analysis: XAU/USD

H4 Chart:

The XAU/USD pair on the H4 chart completed an upward wave towards the 3,393 USD level. The focus now shifts to the potential for a decline to the 3,350 USD support level. The market appears to be consolidating within a broad range around this point. A decisive break below this range would open the potential for a further downward wave towards 3,290 USD.

This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is above zero at recent highs but has diverged from the histogram, which suggests weakening momentum and a potential move towards new lows.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the market has also completed a wave structure up to 3,393 USD, with a corrective wave down to 3,350 USD underway. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate the formation of a tight consolidation range. A subsequent breakout below this range could extend the decline to 3,330 USD, with the broader trend potentially targeting 3,290 USD.

This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently below the 50 level and is pointing sharply downwards towards 20, indicating strengthening downward momentum.

Conclusion

The fundamental landscape, marked by political and trade uncertainties, is bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Technically, after a period of consolidation, the indicators suggest a heightened potential for a downward move if key support levels are breached.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
23 Aug

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gains in Silver

By InvestMacro

Metals Open Interest COT Chart
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver

Metals Net Positions COT Chart
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,281 contracts) and with Steel (60 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-16,895 contracts), Platinum (-2,738 contracts), Copper (-2,179 contracts) and with Palladium (-238 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Silver leads the Weekly Price Performance for Metals Markets

The major metal markets price changes for the week were led by Silver, which advanced by just about 2.5%. Copper was the next highest mover with a gain of 1.24%, followed by Gold, which was higher by 1%, and Palladium, which increased by 0.76% over the last five days.

Copper saw a small slide of -0.54%, while Steel was the biggest loser on the week with a -4.48% decline.

Metals Data:

Metals Table COT Chart
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Silver

Metals Strength Scores COT Chart
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (76 percent) and Silver (74 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (61 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (61.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (67.4 percent)
Silver (74.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (71.4 percent)
Copper (57.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (59.5 percent)
Platinum (51.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.0 percent)
Palladium (76.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (78.2 percent)
Steel (60.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (59.6 percent)

 

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Metals Trends COT Chart
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (8 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Silver (-15 percent), Platinum (-14 percent) and Copper (-13 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (10.4 percent)
Silver (-15.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-23.9 percent)
Copper (-12.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.1 percent)
Platinum (-13.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.4 percent)
Steel (-6.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 212,590 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -16,895 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 229,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.815.212.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.372.24.3
– Net Position:212,590-249,96537,375
– Gross Longs:275,27766,67056,098
– Gross Shorts:62,687316,63518,723
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.2 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.032.399.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-4.26.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 46,549 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,268 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.028.519.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.670.56.9
– Net Position:46,549-66,67520,126
– Gross Longs:68,10245,12731,016
– Gross Shorts:21,553111,80210,890
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.4 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.221.268.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.014.2-4.6

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,179 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.135.09.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.753.24.9
– Net Position:26,032-35,3659,333
– Gross Longs:56,69168,36918,867
– Gross Shorts:30,659103,7349,534
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.540.074.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.64.947.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,050 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,788 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.219.811.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.743.85.0
– Net Position:15,050-20,6745,624
– Gross Longs:49,26917,0349,912
– Gross Shorts:34,21937,7084,288
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.546.663.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.512.70.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -238 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,496 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.232.815.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.424.65.3
– Net Position:-3,7341,6792,055
– Gross Longs:8,0406,7193,137
– Gross Shorts:11,7745,0401,082
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.410.0100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-11.519.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 60 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -718 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.876.61.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.674.61.1
– Net Position:-658478180
– Gross Longs:4,38617,905445
– Gross Shorts:5,04417,427265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.040.259.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.37.0-13.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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