Archive for Metals – Page 3

12 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Steel & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was small gains for Steel (830 contracts) with Palladium (546 contracts) also showing a rising week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-21,751 contracts), Platinum (-4,475 contracts), Silver (-2,209 contracts) and with Copper (-96 contracts) also registering a small decrease in bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (90 percent) and Steel (89 percent) remain near the top of their 3-Year ranges and lead the metals markets this week. Gold (86 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but is close to the midpoint (50 percent) for the past 3-Years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (85.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (94.1 percent)
Silver (90.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (93.0 percent)
Copper (73.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (73.5 percent)
Platinum (81.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (93.1 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (44.4 percent)
Steel (89.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.3 percent)

 

Palladium & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (33 percent) and Copper (24 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (21 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.3 percent)
Silver (3.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (10.1 percent)
Copper (24.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (21.3 percent)
Platinum (21.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (35.5 percent)
Palladium (33.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (32.3 percent)
Steel (11.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 278,180 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 299,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.113.39.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.671.74.9
– Net Position:278,180-303,97625,796
– Gross Longs:348,89168,95751,440
– Gross Shorts:70,711372,93325,644
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.912.964.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.26.6-7.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 54,715 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.520.821.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.274.56.5
– Net Position:54,715-76,71522,000
– Gross Longs:72,11329,71731,279
– Gross Shorts:17,398106,4329,279
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.09.077.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.4-5.19.9

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,096 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -96 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.628.48.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.850.14.5
– Net Position:43,096-52,3049,208
– Gross Longs:105,25268,58220,178
– Gross Shorts:62,156120,88610,970
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.425.473.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.2-22.72.1

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,657 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,475 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.220.013.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.560.34.0
– Net Position:23,657-31,0097,352
– Gross Longs:46,33915,42410,408
– Gross Shorts:22,68246,4333,056
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.3 to 13.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.28.978.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.2-23.614.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.958.210.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.320.57.8
– Net Position:-7,3176,829488
– Gross Longs:4,88210,5491,906
– Gross Shorts:12,1993,7201,418
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.452.757.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.3-36.326.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,801 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 830 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,631 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.469.71.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.863.70.6
– Net Position:-1,8011,479322
– Gross Longs:5,47317,032470
– Gross Shorts:7,27415,553148
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.410.367.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.8-13.240.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
11 Oct

Gold Recovers Amid Mixed US Economic Indicators

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices recovered, reaching 2,644.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday, as investors navigated mixed signals from recent US economic data. The resilience in September’s employment market introduced some hesitations regarding the Federal Reserve’s pace of monetary easing, as the robust job data might warrant a less aggressive approach to rate cuts.

Recent inflation reports further complicated the market. While the overall consumer price index slowed, it was less than anticipated, and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, actually increased. These developments have hindered progress in easing price pressures, leading to adjustments in expectations for US monetary policy.

Initially, there was speculation of a significant 50-basis-point rate cut; however, given the current economic landscape, a more conservative rate cut of 25 basis points is now deemed more likely at the Fed’s November meeting. This scenario holds an 86% probability, according to market forecasts. For gold, which does not yield coupon income, the prospect of easing by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remains a positive catalyst, particularly in a lower interest rate environment where bonds and other interest-bearing assets become less competitive.

Despite the recent uptick, gold is on track to register its second consecutive weekly decline.

Technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD)

The gold market experienced a correction down to 2,605.00 but has since shown signs of resurgence. The current technical setup suggests a potential continuation towards 2,676.50, which would mark the next target in this upward trend. Following the achievement of this level, a correction back to 2,645.00 may occur. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although below zero, is gearing up for a potential rise, indicating strengthening momentum.

On the hourly chart, gold has formed a consolidation range above 2,605.00 and has broken upwards. It nearly reached the target of 2,644.00. Today, we might see the formation of a narrow consolidation range, and if a downward exit occurs, a corrective move to 2,625.00 could be expected. Following this correction, the market may gear up for another rise towards 2,662.00. This forecast is technically backed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 but poised to start a decline, suggesting a short-term pullback before further gains.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
08 Oct

Is This Copper Co. Extremely Undervalued?

Source: Clive Maund (10/7/24)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on Interra Copper Corp. (Imcx:CSE; Imimf:Otcqb; 3MX:FRA) to explain why he believes it is an Immediate Buy.

Interra Copper Corp. (IMCX:CSE; IMIMF:OTCQB; 3MX:FRA) hasn’t done much since we looked at it in August, and has actually slipped a little lower, but there is big news out of the company this morning that it is thought could positively impact the share price, which is that the company has entered into a purchase agreement for the Stars Copper Project.

The difference that this will make to the company is best summed up by President and CEO of Interra Brian Thurston, who commented, “Acquiring the Stars Property is transformative for Interra. The company changes from a junior exploring to making a discovery to a junior with a discovery that is looking to define a resource. The Stars Property has two complementary exploration upsides, with an established zone of higher-grade mineralization, that Interra can grow and define and a much broader under-explored area with high potential for new discovery.”

So this development is viewed as a big “move to the right” on a chart showing the steps from exploring to being a producer. For this reason alone, the company is viewed as a candidate for revaluation, especially given its currently very low valuation and, more generally, the rapidly improving outlook for the copper price. The transaction contemplated by the Purchase Agreement is expected to close on or before December 15, 2024, and is subject to customary closing conditions and approvals, including Aurwest shareholder approval as it relates to the sale of the Property.

So, if we look at the following slide from the company’s investor deck showing its priorities for 2024, we see that with respect to Item 3, they weren’t just talking about it; they did it.

If we look at the slide showing the priorities for 2025 and compare them with the priorities for this year, we see an important difference, which is that at Thane, there are now 10 large high-priority copper-gold mineralized targets.

Before reviewing the latest stock charts for the company, it is worth reminding ourselves about the company’s two main properties prior to the proposed acquisition of Stars, which are Thane and Rip, whose locations in British Columbia are shown on the following slide

This next slide sets out the attributes of the Thane copper-gold project.

This one sets out the attributes of the Rip property.

Two copper–moly targets have been identified at Rip as a result of an aerial survey undertaken this year, whose most important findings are shown on the following slide.

Since the August article appeared, a new copper zone has been discovered at Thane, which is called the Bananas showing. It, along with the previously known Gail showing, are ranked as the highest priorities, with strong copper-gold mineralized alteration systems in favorable host rocks.

Lastly, we take a look at the capital structure of the company as set out in the latest investor deck, with the most important point to note is that of the 42.6 million shares in issue, an estimated 44% are in the float.

Turning to the charts, we see on the long-term 7-year chart that Interra Copper stock is at the tail end of a seemingly relentless brutal bear market that has, at the current price, erased 99% of its value at its 2020 peak and, according to all normal metrics it is extremely undervalued here.

Yet despite the horrendous decline in the stock price, its Accumulation line has continued to advance, and we can see on the 2-year chart that its rate of climb has been accelerating over the past year.

By itself, this is bullish and indicates clandestine accumulation even as the stock price has fallen, and the longer it goes on, the greater is the chance that a reversal to the upside will occur, and now, with the announcement of the planned acquisition of the Stars Project, we may, at last, have the necessary catalyst to make this happen.

Even though the price is still technically in a downtrend with the price below bearishly aligned moving averages there are other bullish factors to observe on this chart that point to a reversal soon and these include the increasing bunching of price and moving averages such as typically precedes a reversal, the predominance of upside volume in recent months and downside momentum having dropped out as shown by the MACD indicator.

Lastly, the 6-month chart shows recent action in much more detail. In the original article on Interra posted in August, it was not expected to drop any further but it did, although it was not by much, and now it is suspected to be at the second low of a small Double Bottom whose first low was in the middle of last month and whose second low just occurred. It should pick up from here, and it is thought that today’s news will do it.

We, therefore, stay long, and Interra Copper is rated an Immediate Buy.

Interra Copper’s website.

Interra Copper Corp. (IMCX:CSE; IMIMF:OTCQB; 3MX:FRA) closed for trading at CA$0.085, US$0.0677 on October 4, 2024.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Interra Copper Corp. has a consulting relationship with Street Smart an affiliate of Streetwise Reports. Street Smart Clients pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Interra Copper Corp.
  3. Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  4. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  5.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Financial News Metals
28 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Copper & Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were strongly higher this week as all six metals markets we cover had higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (13,448 contracts) with Gold (5,324 contracts), Silver (3,900 contracts), Platinum (2,423 contracts), Palladium (267 contracts) and Steel (137 contracts) rounding out the positive weeks.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (100 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (83 percent) and Steel (82 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.0 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (94.8 percent)
Copper (64.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.6 percent)
Platinum (83.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (76.7 percent)
Palladium (52.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (50.7 percent)
Steel (81.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (81.3 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (40 percent) and Platinum (33 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (23 percent), Gold (18 percent) and Copper (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data with Steel (8 percent) also showing a positive trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (18.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (27.1 percent)
Silver (22.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (12.3 percent)
Copper (16.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.1 percent)
Platinum (33.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.2 percent)
Palladium (40.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (45.8 percent)
Steel (8.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 315,390 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 310,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.613.69.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.873.75.2
– Net Position:315,390-339,70624,316
– Gross Longs:387,57276,71353,444
– Gross Shorts:72,182416,41929,128
– Long to Short Ratio:5.4 to 10.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.058.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.3-17.0-3.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 62,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,900 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,298 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.019.620.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.574.16.9
– Net Position:62,198-81,83219,634
– Gross Longs:81,02929,33930,059
– Gross Shorts:18,831111,17110,425
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.03.365.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.6-16.8-9.0

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,682 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.630.88.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.948.35.8
– Net Position:33,130-39,6276,497
– Gross Longs:96,26269,63919,602
– Gross Shorts:63,132109,26613,105
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.136.357.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.1-13.1-12.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,978 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.320.912.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.960.25.2
– Net Position:24,401-29,5405,139
– Gross Longs:46,10315,7159,020
– Gross Shorts:21,70245,2553,881
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.3 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.212.843.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.3-29.1-24.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 267 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.955.79.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:66.420.89.2
– Net Position:-6,7336,631102
– Gross Longs:5,86710,5721,856
– Gross Shorts:12,6003,9411,754
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.651.338.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.3-36.0-21.5

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 137 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,923 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.173.01.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.059.51.0
– Net Position:-3,7863,686100
– Gross Longs:4,11119,891385
– Gross Shorts:7,89716,205285
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.918.743.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-8.818.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

 

COT Updates Financial News Metals
27 Sep

Week Ahead: All that glitters isn’t always gold…

By ForexTime 

  • Silver ↑ 33% since start of 2024
  • 83% correlation with gold over past 5 years
  • Supported by Fed cut & industrial demand
  • Over past year US NFP triggered moves of ↑ 2.2% & ↓ 2.6%
  • Bloomberg FX model – 70% – ($30.14 – $33.41)

The week ahead is stacked with key data and speeches by numerous policymakers!

But all eyes will be on the incoming US jobs report which could rock silver prices.

Monday, 30th September

  • CN50: China Official & Caixin PMIs
  • EU50: Germany CPI, ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • JP225: Japan industrial production, retail sales
  • ZAR: South Africa trade balance
  • UK100: UK Q2 GDP (final)
  • USDInd: Fed Chair Jerome speech

Tuesday, 1st October  

  • EU50: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, CPI, Germany Manufacturing PMI
  • JP225: Japan unemployment, Tankan index, Manufacturing PMI
  • UK100: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
  • US500: US job openings, ISM Manufacturing
  • USDInd: Speeches by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Boston Fed President Susan Collins
  • US30: Nike earnings

Wednesday, 2nd October

  • EU50: Eurozone unemployment
  • US500: Speeches by Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, St. Louis’s Alberto Musalem and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
  • UK100: BoE meeting minutes

Thursday, 3rd October

  • AU200: Australia trade
  • EU50: Eurozone Services PMI, PPI
  • USDInd: US ISM services, initial jobless claims,
  • RUS200 index: Speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

Friday, 4th October

  • SG20: Singapore retail sales
  • XAGUSD: US September jobs report

Why cover silver when gold recently touched another all-time high?

Well, the white metal has been trending higher –  touching its highest level since 2012.

silver

It has also outperformed gold on a week-to-date (wtd), month-to-date (mtd) and year-to-date (ytd) basis:

  • XAGUSD: ↑ 1.9% wtd / 10% mtd / 33% ytd
  • XAUUSD: ↑ 1.6% wtd / 6% mtd / 29% ytd

Investor appetite for precious metals jumped after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in 4 years.

But silver is also drawing strength from the possibility of increased industrial use after China unleashed a wave of stimulus to revive its economy.

These fundamental forces point to further gains for silver which has moved in tandem with gold 83% of the time in any given 5-day period over the past 5 years.

Still, the incoming NFP report could shape the white metal’s outlook for October.

What are the market forecasts for the September NFP report?

  • 140,000 jobs added in September (lower than the 142,000 added in August)
  • Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%
  • Average hourly earnings to slip to 0.3% month-on-month (0.4% in August)
  • Average hourly earnings to slip 3.7% year-on-year (3.8% in August)

Traders are currently pricing in a 49% probability of a 50 bp Fed cut by November with a 90% probability that 75 bp worth of cuts will be achieved by the end of 2024.

  • Silver prices could push higher if a soft NFP report weakens the dollar and supports the case for deeper US rate cuts in Q4.
  • A stronger-than-expected jobs report could weaken silver, especially if this results in a stronger dollar and reduced expectations over lower US rates.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on speeches by numerous Fed officials which may provide insight into future Fed moves – resulting in potential volatility for precious metals including silver.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 2.2% or declines of 2.6% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

Technical outlook:

Silver is trending higher on the daily charts with prices above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 70 – indicating that prices are near overbought territory.

  • A solid breakout above $32.70 may open doors to the next level of interest at $34.00.
  • Sustained weakness below $32.70 may encourage a decline toward $31.20 and $29.60 – where the 100-day SMA resides.

silver 2

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 70% chance that XAGUSD will trade within the $30.14 – $33.41 range over the next one week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Metals Opinions
25 Sep

Is Gold Ready To Outshine Stocks?

Source: John Newell (9/24/24)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates explains how you can decode the Dow Gold ratio to understand better which asset, stock, or gold is outperforming the other.

The Dow Gold ratio is one of the most insightful tools for understanding the relationship between stock markets and gold, particularly in times of financial upheaval.

By comparing the price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the price of gold, this ratio helps investors gauge which asset, stock, or gold (which has historically been considered money) is outperforming the other.

Today, the ratio is calculated by dividing the Dow at ~42,000 by the gold price at ~ $2,600, equating to approximately 16.15 ounces of gold to buy one Dow share.

A high ratio indicates that stocks are expensive relative to gold, while a low ratio suggests that gold is more highly valued compared to stocks. Throughout history, this ratio has fluctuated dramatically, marking pivotal moments in the global financial landscape.

Key Moments in the Dow Gold Ratio

1971: 25:1

  • At the beginning of 1971, it took roughly 25 ounces of gold to purchase a single share of the Dow. This was a period when stocks had outpaced the performance of gold for years, reflecting a broad belief in the strength of financial markets and economic growth. However, the U.S. was on the verge of significant changes in monetary policy.

1974: 3:1

  • Just a few years later, by 1974, the ratio plummeted to 3 ounces of gold for each Dow share. The rapid devaluation of stocks relative to gold occurred as inflation surged and economic uncertainty took hold, particularly after the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971. Investors flocked to gold as a hedge against inflation, causing gold’s value to soar.

Late 1970s: 10:1

  • Following this sharp decline, the Dow Gold ratio staged a partial recovery, rallying to 10:1 in the late 1970s. However, inflationary pressures and economic instability persisted, preventing a full recovery and keeping gold as a preferred asset for wealth preservation.

1980: 1:1

  • By 1980, the ratio dropped to its lowest point in history — 1:1. This meant that one ounce of gold could buy one Dow share. This dramatic shift came at the peak of economic uncertainty, runaway inflation, and soaring interest rates. Gold had become the ultimate safe haven, while stocks were seen as highly volatile and risky.

2000: ~45:1

  • The long bull market in stocks that began in the 1980s pushed the Dow Gold ratio to an astonishing 45:1 by the year 2000. This period was marked by technological innovation, economic growth, and low inflation, driving stocks to outperform gold significantly. Gold was out of favor, seen as a relic in a time of booming stock markets and rapid technological advancements.

2011: 6:1

  • After the financial crisis of 2008, gold surged once again as investors sought safety amidst economic turmoil. By 2011, the ratio had corrected back to 6:1, reflecting a significant loss of confidence in the global financial system, while gold regained its stature as a store of value.

Today: ~16:1

  • Currently, the Dow Gold ratio sits at approximately 16:1. The market has rebounded significantly since the lows of 2011, but we believe that these markets could be entering another period where gold starts to outpace stocks.

What’s Next? Could We See a Return to 6:1 or Even 1:1?

As the saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.”

Looking at past cycles, it’s clear that the Dow Gold ratio tends to revert toward certain key levels during times of economic stress and uncertainty. If “past is prologue,” the charts suggest that we may be heading back toward a 6:1 ratio and possibly even another ~ 1:1 scenario, as we saw in 1933 and 1980

Several factors support this thesis:

  1. Global Inflation and Monetary Policy: Inflation is again a significant concern for investors, with central banks worldwide continuing to grapple with rising prices. Historically, periods of high inflation have favored gold over stocks as investors seek to preserve their purchasing power.
  2. Geopolitical Instability: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and economic uncertainty are causing shifts in global financial markets. Gold traditionally performs well in these environments, as it is seen as a safe-haven asset.
  3. Debasement of Fiat Currencies: With massive debt levels and aggressive monetary stimulus measures, fiat currencies are losing value relative to hard assets like gold. As more central banks move toward looser monetary policies, gold’s relative strength is likely to increase, pushing the Dow Gold ratio lower.
  4. Investor Sentiment: While stocks have performed well over the last decade, there are growing concerns about valuations, especially in tech-heavy indices like the Dow. A correction or a prolonged period of stagnation in stock markets could further tilt the ratio in gold’s favor.

The Big Picture Dow / Gold Ratio Chart

Conclusion: The Dow Gold Ratio and the Case for Gold

The Dow Gold ratio has been a reliable barometer of market sentiment and economic conditions for decades. It tells a story of booms, busts, and the cyclical nature of markets.

If history is any indication, we may be on the cusp of another significant move in favor of gold. The current ratio of 16:1 is far from the extremes we’ve seen in the past, and we believe that a return to 6:1 is possible in the near future.

In more extreme cases, we could even see a return to the historic 1:1 ratio, as the chart shows is possible, because it happened before in 1933 and 1980.

For investors seeking protection against economic uncertainty and inflation, the Dow Gold ratio offers a compelling case for gold as a valuable part of any diversified portfolio.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions
23 Sep

Gold Reaches New Record as Investors Eye Further Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices soared to a new all-time high, with the troy ounce surpassing 2614 USD. This surge is primarily driven by expectations of additional interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Following the US Federal Reserve’s decision last week to reduce its interest rate by 50 basis points – the first such cut in four years – the market expects an equivalent reduction by the year’s end. This week, attention is focused on upcoming US macroeconomic releases, including the Core PCE report and personal income and expenditures data. These indicators will provide insights into the potential direction of future Fed rate adjustments.

Gold becomes increasingly attractive as an investment during periods of lower lending costs, which typically lead to reduced yields on government bonds and a lower Dollar Index (DXY). Unlike other assets, gold does not generate coupon income, making it more appealing when other yields decline.

Additionally, the escalation of hostilities between Israel and Gaza has further boosted demand for gold. In times of heightened global uncertainty and conflict, gold traditionally performs well as a defensive investment.

Despite some strengthening of the US dollar, this has not significantly impacted the upward trajectory of gold prices.

Technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD)

Gold has broken through the resistance at 2611.00 USD and is now targeting 2672.00 USD. Upon reaching this level, a corrective movement back to 2611.00 USD may occur, followed by another growth phase targeting 2750.00 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, with the signal line well above zero and ascending sharply.

The H1 chart shows that gold has reached 2611.00 USD and is now consolidating around this level. The consolidation range is defined between 2603.00 USD and 2625.25 USD. A breakout above 2625.25 USD would likely lead to a continuation of the upward momentum towards 2672.00 USD, confirming the ongoing bullish trend. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line progressing towards 80, indicating sustained upward momentum.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
21 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (27,565 contracts) with Silver (13,556 contracts), Platinum (11,975 contracts), Copper (6,870 contracts) and with Palladium (3,988 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The market with a decrease was Steel with a shortfall by -346 contracts on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (81 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (51 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (89.3 percent)
Silver (96.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (77.9 percent)
Copper (51.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.2 percent)
Platinum (76.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (44.7 percent)
Palladium (50.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (21.4 percent)
Steel (81.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.7 percent)

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (46 percent) and Platinum (31 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (28 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (0 percent) is the lowest trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (27.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.9 percent)
Silver (12.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.8 percent)
Copper (0.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (-10.9 percent)
Platinum (31.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.5 percent)
Palladium (45.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (15.4 percent)
Steel (7.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (8.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 310,066 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 27,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.813.99.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.176.25.2
– Net Position:310,066-335,12725,061
– Gross Longs:369,73474,64752,976
– Gross Shorts:59,668409,77427,915
– Long to Short Ratio:6.2 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.061.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:27.6-24.2-18.8

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 58,298 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,556 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,742 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.320.020.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.975.07.1
– Net Position:58,298-77,30619,008
– Gross Longs:74,97828,13129,005
– Gross Shorts:16,680105,4379,997
– Long to Short Ratio:4.5 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.38.362.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.5-8.5-7.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,682 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,870 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.734.48.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.146.95.9
– Net Position:19,682-25,6025,920
– Gross Longs:79,23570,41317,898
– Gross Shorts:59,55396,01511,978
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.648.453.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.12.3-16.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 21,978 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,003 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.924.011.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.258.25.3
– Net Position:21,978-27,0315,053
– Gross Longs:42,67919,0289,283
– Gross Shorts:20,70146,0594,230
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.4 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.719.542.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.2-29.6-9.1

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -7,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,988 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,988 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.358.79.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:64.720.111.1
– Net Position:-7,0007,226-226
– Gross Longs:5,10210,9831,853
– Gross Shorts:12,1023,7572,079
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.755.522.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:45.8-34.6-66.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,923 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,577 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.172.41.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.757.31.0
– Net Position:-3,9233,795128
– Gross Longs:3,80718,213376
– Gross Shorts:7,73014,418248
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.319.146.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-8.424.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
17 Sep

Gold (XAUUSD) Holds Near Record Highs Amid Anticipation of Fed Rate Cut

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices remained stable at around $2580 per troy ounce on Tuesday, hovering close to their record highs. This resilience in the gold market is largely driven by the weakening US dollar and heightened expectations for a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Current projections from the CME FedWatch tool indicate a 67% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in today’s Fed meeting, a significant increase from the 40% chance noted yesterday. Additionally, there’s a 33% probability of a more modest 25 basis point reduction. These expectations have significantly influenced market sentiment, prompting investors to flock to gold as a protective asset.

Recent geopolitical events, such as the attempted assassination of US presidential candidate Donald Trump, have also underscored the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, leading to a spike in demand during times of perceived instability.

The potential easing of US monetary policy, expected to be confirmed in Wednesday’s Fed announcement, further bolsters gold’s attractiveness. With its lack of coupon income, gold becomes more appealing during periods when yields on US government bonds are falling, and the Dollar Index (DXY) is weakening.

Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD)

Gold broke through the consolidation range at 2530.00 and executed a growth wave up to 2586.00. The market has now reached the expansion potential of this range and is forming a new consolidation zone at these highs. The primary expectation is for a downward move to 2555.50, potentially extending into a corrective phase towards 2530.00. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, showing signal lines above zero but starting a downward trajectory, indicating the potential for a forthcoming decline.

On the H1 chart, gold reached up to 2588.88 and is currently consolidating just below this peak. A break below this consolidation could lead to a move down to 2555.50. Conversely, a break above could briefly push prices towards 2600.00 before a potential reversal to 2530.00. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and pointing sharply downward towards 20, corroborates this expected downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
14 Sep

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (8,615 contracts) with Palladium (645 contracts) and Steel (155 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,057 contracts), Silver (-1,317 contracts) and with Copper (-149 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (95 percent) and Steel (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (21 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently. The next lowest strength scores are Platinum (45 percent) and Copper (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (95.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (97.2 percent)
Silver (77.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (79.7 percent)
Copper (45.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (45.3 percent)
Platinum (44.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.7 percent)
Palladium (21.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.7 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (82.1 percent)

Gold & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (15 percent) and Palladium (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Steel (9 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-11 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (14.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (6.0 percent)
Silver (-5.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-7.2 percent)
Copper (-10.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-27.2 percent)
Platinum (-11.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-28.9 percent)
Palladium (15.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.6 percent)
Steel (8.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (10.2 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 282,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 287,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.515.310.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.275.35.2
– Net Position:282,501-306,89924,398
– Gross Longs:340,00678,23250,937
– Gross Shorts:57,505385,13126,539
– Long to Short Ratio:5.9 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.15.959.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.8-13.1-6.7

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 44,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,059 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.823.621.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.171.78.4
– Net Position:44,742-62,08617,344
– Gross Longs:61,64930,38628,230
– Gross Shorts:16,90792,47210,886
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.925.354.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.89.2-19.2

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.834.89.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.543.96.8
– Net Position:12,812-18,4485,636
– Gross Longs:74,75470,85119,482
– Gross Shorts:61,94289,29913,846
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.254.651.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.914.8-33.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 10,003 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,615 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.624.012.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.843.44.8
– Net Position:10,003-16,4166,413
– Gross Longs:45,42720,37010,508
– Gross Shorts:35,42436,7864,095
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.6 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.747.863.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.512.3-4.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.160.77.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:77.511.17.3
– Net Position:-10,98811,049-61
– Gross Longs:6,24513,5131,569
– Gross Shorts:17,2332,4641,630
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.482.830.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.4-4.7-69.4

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,577 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 155 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.370.00.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.354.00.8
– Net Position:-3,5773,579-2
– Gross Longs:4,32715,668169
– Gross Shorts:7,90412,089171
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.718.332.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-9.314.3

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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