Archive for Metals – Page 2

29 Nov

Gold Prices Rise Amid Weakening US Dollar and Geopolitical Tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices have risen for four consecutive days, reaching 2,660 USD per troy ounce by Friday. The upward movement in Gold prices is primarily driven by the weakening of the US dollar and heightened geopolitical tensions. The current state of the currency market, characterised by low liquidity due to the extended US holiday weekend starting with Thanksgiving, also contributes to Gold’s price behaviour.

Despite this recent appreciation, Gold faces potential headwinds and could experience a 2% decline by the week’s end as investors await further data from the US. The upcoming statistics are anticipated to provide additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s monetary direction on monetary policy. While the Core PCE data suggests a rate cut in December is plausible, other economic indicators point to the continued robustness of the US economy. This may lead the Fed to maintain its cautious approach to interest rates in 2025.

The relationship between the US dollar and Gold is crucial, as they typically move inversely. Gold, which does not generate its yield, tends to perform well when the dollar and US Treasury bond yields are lower.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has completed a corrective wave at 2,605.55 and is now poised for further growth towards 2,715.00. When this level is reached, a consolidation phase around 2,715.00 may occur, potentially leading to a continued upward trajectory towards 2,818.55. The MACD indicator supports this bullish XAU/USD outlook, with its signal line below zero but rising sharply.

The H1 chart shows that Gold has completed an initial growth structure to 2,658.88 and a subsequent correction to 2,622.00. Currently, a new growth phase targeting 2,698.00 is underway. Upon reaching this target, a pullback to 2,658.88 may occur before the market attempts to achieve a higher level of 2,715.00. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 50 and climbing towards 80, indicating the potential for further upward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
23 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (2,443 contracts) with Palladium (19 contracts) also showing a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,403 contracts), Gold (-2,084 contracts), Silver (-1,319 contracts) and with Steel (-489 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (91 percent) and Silver (75 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (70 percent) and Gold (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (48 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (69.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (70.0 percent)
Silver (74.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (76.4 percent)
Copper (47.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.7 percent)
Platinum (69.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (63.8 percent)
Palladium (55.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (55.7 percent)
Steel (91.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (93.2 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends


COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (7 percent) and Steel (2 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-26 percent), Gold (-17 percent) and Silver (-11 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-16.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (-24.1 percent)
Silver (-10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (-25.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.8 percent)
Platinum (-2.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-18.7 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (11.4 percent)
Steel (1.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (7.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 234,367 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,084 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 236,451 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.514.610.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.966.84.9
– Net Position:234,367-262,32227,955
– Gross Longs:309,35473,45952,421
– Gross Shorts:74,987335,78124,466
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.227.971.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.615.07.8

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,323 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,642 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.724.421.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.970.58.0
– Net Position:46,323-65,08118,758
– Gross Longs:65,93934,46630,090
– Gross Shorts:19,61699,54711,332
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.722.461.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.612.9-15.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,442 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,845 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.335.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.445.75.2
– Net Position:15,442-21,8426,400
– Gross Longs:87,84280,19818,115
– Gross Shorts:72,400102,04011,715
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.651.656.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.726.3-17.0

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,676 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,233 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.318.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.851.63.6
– Net Position:22,676-29,7597,083
– Gross Longs:55,43716,10210,307
– Gross Shorts:32,76145,8613,224
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.626.273.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.32.8-4.2

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,313 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.147.812.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.816.49.1
– Net Position:-6,2945,696598
– Gross Longs:4,7268,6732,256
– Gross Shorts:11,0202,9771,658
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.9 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.944.662.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-8.15.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.972.40.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.568.00.7
– Net Position:-1,2971,23760
– Gross Longs:6,08820,174261
– Gross Shorts:7,38518,937201
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.49.338.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.9-0.9-28.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
19 Nov

Gold Rebounds Amid USD Weakness and Geopolitical Uncertainties

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices rebounded, crossing 2,620 USD per troy ounce on Tuesday, as the US dollar weakened, and investors sought clarity on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. The likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December currently stands at 59%, reflecting a slight decline from previous days.

Market participants also closely monitor potential cabinet picks by US President-elect Donald Trump, whose protectionist policies could influence gold prices. Anticipating critical appointments that may shape Trump’s economic policies adds to market sensitivity.

Growing geopolitical tensions worldwide heighten demand for safe-haven assets, boosting gold’s appeal. After recent declines, the fundamental factors supporting gold’s longer-term ascent are prompting investors to engage at current levels they perceive as attractive.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 chart: The market has completed a correction to 2,537 on the H4 chart and is now poised for a growth wave aiming for 2,688. If this target is reached, a potential retracement to 2,610 may occur before a further push towards 2,790. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is gearing upwards from below zero.

H1 chart: On the H1 chart, gold is progressing through the initial phase of a growth wave to 2,688. The price has currently stabilised around 2,609, forming a tight consolidation range. An upward break from this range is anticipated to target 2,660. Once this is achieved, a brief pullback to 2,609 might unfold before continuing the ascent towards 2,688. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, indicating strong upward momentum with its signal line heading towards 80 from above 50.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
17 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover lower speculator contracts.

Leading markets with declines in speculator bets were Gold (-18,878 contracts) with Platinum (-8,808 contracts), Silver (-5,704 contracts), Copper (-2,825 contracts), Palladium (-2,646 contracts) and Steel (-394 contracts) also showing lower contracts for the week.

The metals markets have now seen multiple down weeks in a row with Copper recording six straight weeks of declines while Gold and Silver have fallen for three straight weeks of declines. Steel, Palladium and Platinum have also had two straight weeks of falling contracts as well. Despite the recent weakness, the metals markets are still in strong positions compared to their 3-Year ranges as all the markets have at least a 50 percent strength score or, in other words, the speculator positions are in the top half of their 3-Year ranges. Steel, Silver and Gold are in the top 70 percent of their ranges at the moment.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) and Silver (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (70 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Copper (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength score was Palladium (56 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (70.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.2 percent)
Silver (76.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.6 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (63.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (84.6 percent)
Palladium (55.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.1 percent)
Steel (93.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (11 percent) and Steel (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-21 percent) and Platinum (-19 percent) as the next markets with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-24.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-22.8 percent)
Silver (-11.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.2 percent)
Copper (-20.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-18.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (11.0 percent)
Palladium (11.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (22.5 percent)
Steel (7.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 236,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,878 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 255,329 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.014.110.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.963.65.2
– Net Position:236,451-265,58229,131
– Gross Longs:316,22575,34756,838
– Gross Shorts:79,774340,92927,707
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.026.776.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.122.35.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,704 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.722.521.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.468.27.7
– Net Position:47,642-67,40719,765
– Gross Longs:68,95133,19731,167
– Gross Shorts:21,309100,60411,402
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.419.966.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.713.1-12.3

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,845 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,670 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.433.48.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.546.54.6
– Net Position:20,845-30,4139,568
– Gross Longs:93,94177,57520,369
– Gross Shorts:73,096107,98810,801
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.744.275.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.817.611.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,041 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.918.912.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.250.93.6
– Net Position:20,233-28,4198,186
– Gross Longs:53,28316,82511,361
– Gross Shorts:33,05045,2443,175
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.829.291.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.711.940.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,313 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,667 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.348.413.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.620.37.3
– Net Position:-6,3135,1831,130
– Gross Longs:4,6678,9192,480
– Gross Shorts:10,9803,7361,350
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.741.088.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.4-16.536.7

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -414 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.271.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.368.20.7
– Net Position:-80872781
– Gross Longs:6,25718,343256
– Gross Shorts:7,06517,616175
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.27.441.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.0-6.3-17.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
14 Nov

Gold Falls for the Fifth Consecutive Trading Session

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

On Thursday, the price of a troy ounce of Gold is lower, approaching 2,560.00 USD.

The current value of Gold is at an eight-week low, influenced by the strong US dollar. The market analyses the latest inflation statistics released in the US and draws rather ambitious conclusions.

The inflation statistics came out within expectations. The only thing that might have hurt investors’ attention was the three-month inflation numbers, which rose on a year-on-year basis. Even so, the CPI data increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December. The odds of a rate cut are around 80%, up from less than 60% a couple of days ago.

Since last Friday’s sell-off, the gold price has fallen by 4%. The stock exchange opinion is as follows: since Donald Trump will become the new US President, the Fed will be forced to stop the easing cycle sooner or later. This is due to the protectionist policies that Trump and his administration usually pursue, which can stoke inflation.

A strong US dollar will visibly weigh on the value of Gold and force the precious metal to retreat.

Technical analysis of XAUUSD

On the H4 chart of XAUUSD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the level of 2,608.00 and, with a downside exit, continues the development of the second half of the third wave of the trend to the level of 2511.65. After working off this level, we will consider the probability of the beginning of the correction wave to the level of 2,608.00 (test from below). After the correction is completed, we expect a new wave of decline to 2,430.00. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is under the zero level and is directed downwards.

On the H1 chart of XAUUSD, the market broke through the level of 2,590.00 downwards and reached 2,560.00. We expect the development of a compact consolidation range around this level. A correction link to 2,577.00 is possible in case of an upward exit. Conversely, in case of a downward exit, we will consider the continuation of the wave to the local target of 2,511.65. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 50 and is directed downwards to 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
10 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the declines for the metals was Gold (-23,324 contracts) with Silver (-7,085 contracts), Platinum (-6,502 contracts), Palladium (-1,214 contracts), Steel (-261 contracts) and Copper (-69 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (95 percent) and Platinum (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

Silver (84 percent), Gold (77 percent), Palladium (75 percent) and Copper (55 percent) all are in bullish levels and above their midpoint 3-Year scores currently (above 50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (77.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.0 percent)
Silver (83.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.5 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (55.3 percent)
Platinum (84.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (100.0 percent)
Palladium (75.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (84.0 percent)
Steel (94.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (95.7 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (22 percent) and Steel (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-23 percent), Silver (-11 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-22.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.9 percent)
Silver (-11.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (3.8 percent)
Platinum (11.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.1 percent)
Palladium (22.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (12.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (14.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 255,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.413.19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.663.94.5
– Net Position:255,329-283,05927,730
– Gross Longs:336,81673,28752,637
– Gross Shorts:81,487356,34624,907
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.220.471.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.820.412.3

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,431 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.020.120.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.769.26.4
– Net Position:53,346-74,24320,897
– Gross Longs:73,98030,34730,527
– Gross Shorts:20,634104,5909,630
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.612.371.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.28.46.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 23,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,739 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.532.97.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.146.53.8
– Net Position:23,670-34,21110,541
– Gross Longs:101,99682,98220,008
– Gross Shorts:78,326117,1939,467
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.341.081.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.84.724.5

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 29,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.217.011.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.358.83.5
– Net Position:29,041-35,7746,733
– Gross Longs:55,78014,5159,736
– Gross Shorts:26,73950,2893,003
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.3 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.612.768.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.0-14.024.9

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,667 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,453 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.044.412.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.030.36.9
– Net Position:-3,6672,5911,076
– Gross Longs:6,3988,1282,341
– Gross Shorts:10,0655,5371,265
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.122.585.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.5-28.847.0

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -414 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -153 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.668.21.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.367.10.7
– Net Position:-414286128
– Gross Longs:6,79217,382308
– Gross Shorts:7,20617,096180
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.75.746.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.9-13.03.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
03 Nov

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Palladium & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 29th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Palladium (2,627 contracts) with Steel (925 contracts) and Platinum (667 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-17,551 contracts), Copper (-8,716 contracts) and with Silver (-5,924 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (100 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (86 percent) and Palladium (84 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (86.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (92.7 percent)
Silver (92.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (100.0 percent)
Copper (55.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (63.5 percent)
Platinum (100.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (98.4 percent)
Palladium (84.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (64.8 percent)
Steel (95.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (92.2 percent)

 

Palladium & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (33 percent) and Platinum (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Silver (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Gold (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores and is currently the only market with a lower trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-11.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (2.7 percent) vs Silver previous week (27.3 percent)
Copper (3.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (18.3 percent)
Platinum (32.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.8 percent)
Palladium (33.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.3 percent)
Steel (14.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (9.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 278,653 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 296,204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.311.99.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.264.34.9
– Net Position:278,653-303,67125,018
– Gross Longs:366,63668,93553,432
– Gross Shorts:87,983372,60628,414
– Long to Short Ratio:4.2 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.013.061.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.911.3-0.2

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 60,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.019.320.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.371.96.6
– Net Position:60,431-82,21221,781
– Gross Longs:79,64930,22432,166
– Gross Shorts:19,218112,43610,385
– Long to Short Ratio:4.1 to 10.3 to 13.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.53.576.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.7-5.413.5

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 23,739 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,455 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.134.48.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.548.34.0
– Net Position:23,739-34,23910,500
– Gross Longs:96,84485,29020,362
– Gross Shorts:73,105119,5299,862
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.340.981.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.8-7.427.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 35,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.615.410.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.463.44.1
– Net Position:35,543-41,4515,908
– Gross Longs:57,50013,3269,413
– Gross Shorts:21,95754,7773,505
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.2 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.055.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.1-32.313.4

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.944.313.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.735.18.9
– Net Position:-2,4531,636817
– Gross Longs:6,5787,8932,397
– Gross Shorts:9,0316,2571,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.015.772.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.3-39.950.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -153 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 925 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.867.61.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.367.60.6
– Net Position:-1535148
– Gross Longs:7,52118,979310
– Gross Shorts:7,67418,974162
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.74.648.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.4-14.42.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
31 Oct

Expert Says Secondary Metals Will Star in New Bull Market

Source: Streetwise Reports (10/30/24)

Bob Moriarty of 321gold sat down with Francis Hunt of The Market Sniper recently to discuss the state of the commodities markets and the recent meeting of the BRICS nations in Russia. Find out why he thinks the bulls will be running for more than just gold. 

Major periods of rising gold prices since 1971 have included the 1970s and the 2000s. Many experts believe we’ve started a new period of such expansion now.

Spot prices touched a new record of US$2,769.02 per ounce on Tuesday “as the run-up to the 2024 presidential election and uncertainty prior to upcoming economic data kept safe haven demand in play,” Investing.com reported.

Bob Moriarty of 321gold sat down with Francis Hunt of The Market Sniper recently to discuss the state of the commodities markets and the recent meeting of the BRICS nations in Russia.

He told Hunt that the most important mechanism in determining their prices is not the textbook answer you’ve always been given.

“Ignore demand, ignore supply, ignore the value of the dollar, ignore the geopolitical, none of those make any difference whatsoever,” Moriarty said in the interview, posted on YouTube. “The only thing that moves the price of anything is sentiment.”

Sentiment Changing Soon

The Investing.com article reported by Scott Kanowsky said the rise is coming from safe haven demand and a string of expected economic readings expected soon, “which are likely to factor into in the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rates.”

However, Moriarty said the overall price of gold miners has devalued vs. the price of gold and is “at the bottom now.”

“From a relative position of sentiment, everybody hates the miners,” he said of environmental and ESG concerns that have affected the industry. “You can go to Canada, and there’s probably 1,500 stocks, and the number of stocks under 10 cents is absolutely staggering. I own probably 50 different stocks, and I would guess 40 of them are under 10 centers per share . . . You don’t have to know anything about investing if you understand the sentiment.”

And Moriarty expects that sentiment to change soon.

“We’re going to be in a bull market probably for the next 10 or 20 years,” he said. “It has just started the real bull face. You’re going to see it in the other metals, and you’re absolutely going to see it in the miners. And I believe there are a lot of stocks that are going to go up 100-fold.”

But Moriarty said it won’t be just gold; other metals like silver, rhodium, palladium, and platinum will benefit, sometimes even more.

“Gold is going to continue to go up, but just like with dancing, sometimes you lead, sometimes you follow,” he said. “And I think it’s the secondary metals that are going to lead now.”

Most Valuable Precious Metal on the Planet?

Like gold, silver has had a good year so far and is up 42.17%, according to USA Today. It was trading at US$34.02 per ounce on Tuesday, an increase of 1.26% in the previous 24 hours.  Platinum, which was US$1,025.65 per ounce on Monday, is up 3.84% on the year.

But in addition to gold, silver and platinum, the platinum group contains lesser-known metals like osmium, ruthenium, iridium, palladium, and rhodium.

The metals are all very rare and have high corrosion resistance, catalytic properties, and high melting points, according to How Stuff Works.

But Mack Hayden wrote for the site that rhodium, a silver-white metal, is “the most valuable precious metal on the planet.” The automotive industry uses nearly 80% of the world’s supply to make catalytic converters that help reduce toxic gas emissions. South Africa is the leading producer, contributing about 80% of the global supply. It is often found mixed with other platinum group metals and requires extensive processing to extract.

Trading Economics said rhodium has increased US$250 per ounce or 5.65% since the beginning of 2024. While it was US$4,675 per ounce on Monday, it reached an all-time high of US$29,800 per ounce in 2021 — nearly 10 times gold’s current record price.

Hunt pointed out that two of the major producers of platinum, palladium, and rhodium are Russia and South Africa, two members of the BRICS group of nations that met earlier this month in Russia.

“They control price; that’s a big deal,” Moriarty agreed. “We’re going to see some real financial shocks with silver, with rhodium, with palladium, and with platinum.”

BRICS Group Expanding

BRICS is an intergovernmental organization that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. At its October meeting, it expanded to add 13 new “partner nations.”

At the meeting, China President Xi Jinping referred to BRICS as “a vanguard for advancing global governance reform” and “reform of the international financial architecture.”

Bolivian President Luis Arce said, “the shield of BRICS and multipolarity” can protect formerly colonized nations, helping them resist “Western unipolarity and the tyranny of the dollar.”

With gold hitting record highs and silver rising, the other platinum group metals are nowhere near their eventual highs, Moriarty said.

“The Russians understand this, and they’re going to start buying palladium, they’re going to start buying rhodium, and they’re going to start buying silver because those metals are going to move faster and higher than gold,” he said, predicting record highs for all three.

Important Disclosures:

  1. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

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Metals Opinions
21 Oct

Gold Hits New Record Amid Geopolitical Tensions and US Election Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices surged to a new record high of 2,729 USD per troy ounce on Monday, driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the heightened uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. These persistent geopolitical factors, particularly the closely contested race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, have bolstered investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

The intensification of hostilities in the Middle East, particularly with Israel’s ongoing discussions about further actions against Iran, has significantly influenced market sentiment. Despite calls from US President Joe Biden for a ceasefire, Israel’s reluctance to make concessions has only added to the geopolitical tensions affecting global markets.

As the US election day on 5 November approaches, investors are increasingly repositioning their portfolios, favouring the stability and security that gold provides during political uncertainty. Preliminary polls indicate that the election could be one of the closest in recent history, further enhancing gold’s appeal as a protective investment.

Market analysts are now revising their expectations for gold upwards, with some speculating that prices could reach 3,000 USD per troy ounce by Q4 2025. This optimistic outlook is further supported by the surge in interest in silver, which has reached its highest price since 2012 due to similar bullish sentiments in the precious metals market.

Technical analysis of gold (XAU/USD)

The gold market has successfully breached the 2,685 level, paving the way for upward movement. After achieving a local high of 2,732, the market is currently targeting the 2,757 level. A corrective pullback to at least 2,700 is anticipated before potentially resuming the upward trajectory towards 2,757. This bullish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is significantly above zero and climbing, indicating strong upward momentum.

On the hourly chart, gold has established a growth wave, peaking at 2,732, with a consolidation pattern forming just below this level. A downward correction towards 2,700 is expected shortly. Upon completing this correction, the market may initiate another upward phase, targeting a retest of 2,733, potentially extending towards 2,757. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this scenario, currently positioned above 80 but pointing downwards, suggesting a brief consolidation or correction may occur before further gains.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
19 Oct

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 15th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (8,254 contracts) with Platinum (4,730 contracts), Palladium (619 contracts), and Steel (159 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-7,574 contracts) with Silver (-683 contracts) registering lower bets on the week as well.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Platinum (94 percent) and Steel (90 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (89 percent) and Gold (89 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

Palladium (53 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently but remains higher than its 3-Year midpoint (50 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (89.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.9 percent)
Silver (89.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (90.0 percent)
Copper (66.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (73.4 percent)
Platinum (93.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (81.2 percent)
Palladium (52.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (48.4 percent)
Steel (90.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (89.4 percent)

Platinum & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Platinum (72 percent) and Palladium (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-0.4 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the only negative trend.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-0.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.2 percent)
Silver (10.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.4 percent)
Copper (21.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (24.2 percent)
Platinum (72.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (21.2 percent)
Palladium (36.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (33.3 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 286,434 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 8,254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 278,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.112.99.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.170.74.5
– Net Position:286,434-312,65826,224
– Gross Longs:357,49470,02850,490
– Gross Shorts:71,060382,68624,266
– Long to Short Ratio:5.0 to 10.2 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.09.765.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-0.36.8

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 54,032 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 54,715 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.321.122.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.374.57.0
– Net Position:54,032-75,75821,726
– Gross Longs:70,02429,91331,621
– Gross Shorts:15,992105,6719,895
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.3 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.110.175.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.6-12.515.8

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 35,522 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,574 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,096 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.831.08.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.249.74.1
– Net Position:35,522-45,2199,697
– Gross Longs:99,03675,37219,752
– Gross Shorts:63,514120,59110,055
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.6 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.331.576.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-22.622.4

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 28,387 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,657 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:63.819.412.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.966.83.7
– Net Position:28,387-34,5396,152
– Gross Longs:46,52314,1718,855
– Gross Shorts:18,13648,7102,703
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.3 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):93.80.059.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:72.1-64.7-40.7

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,698 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 619 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.658.011.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.424.07.4
– Net Position:-6,6986,032666
– Gross Longs:4,53710,2941,987
– Gross Shorts:11,2354,2621,321
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.947.065.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.2-39.931.6

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,642 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,801 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.569.91.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.164.80.5
– Net Position:-1,6421,281361
– Gross Longs:5,66817,562481
– Gross Shorts:7,31016,281120
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 14.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.09.571.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-9.750.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
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