Metals

Archive for Metals – Page 2

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals category this week was Silver with a small gain of 454 contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-18,364 contracts), Copper (-6,010 contracts), Platinum (-2,324 contracts), Steel (-557 contracts) and with Palladium (-385 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (92 percent) and Silver (84 percent) led the metals markets this week. Gold (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) and Copper (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (72.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (79.6 percent)
Silver (83.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (83.0 percent)
Copper (45.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (51.0 percent)
Platinum (48.7 percent) vs Platinum previous week (54.2 percent)
Palladium (40.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (43.4 percent)
Steel (91.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.5 percent)

Steel & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (23 percent) and Silver (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-4 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-21.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-6.7 percent)
Silver (7.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (8.6 percent)
Copper (-3.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.7 percent)
Platinum (-1.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.5 percent)
Palladium (-3.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (1.5 percent)
Steel (22.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 243,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,364 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 261,625 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.0	13.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.2	68.8	4.4
– Net Position:	243,261	-271,115	27,854
– Gross Longs:	303,132	65,713	49,602
– Gross Shorts:	59,871	336,828	21,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.6	24.7	71.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.8	20.0	7.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 53,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 454 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 52,862 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.2	21.2	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.7	69.8	7.2
– Net Position:	53,316	-70,944	17,628
– Gross Longs:	73,315	30,890	28,190
– Gross Shorts:	19,999	101,834	10,562
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.5	15.9	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.4	-8.8	10.3

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,012 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,010 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,022 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	32.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	39.5	6.2
– Net Position:	13,012	-16,189	3,177
– Gross Longs:	88,987	70,271	16,778
– Gross Shorts:	75,975	86,460	13,601
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	56.5	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.8	-11.4

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,176 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	60.8	20.9	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	46.6	4.6
– Net Position:	13,852	-20,401	6,549
– Gross Longs:	48,163	16,532	10,229
– Gross Shorts:	34,311	36,933	3,680
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	47.2	65.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.8	0.5	8.6

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,519 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -385 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.0	45.0	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	7.0	7.9
– Net Position:	-8,519	7,573	946
– Gross Longs:	7,984	8,966	2,523
– Gross Shorts:	16,503	1,393	1,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	6.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.5	55.5	74.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.6	1.9	10.7

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.9	58.0	1.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.2	67.1	0.6
– Net Position:	3,340	-3,500	160
– Gross Longs:	13,014	22,292	380
– Gross Shorts:	9,674	25,792	220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.9	8.6	49.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-23.1	9.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

05 Mar

Gold vs. the Dow: The 100-Year Truth Investors Overlook

Source: John Newell (3/3/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates shares his thoughts on where the gold market is headed. Newell also updates us on two stocks he has previously spoken about.

For decades, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hailed as the ultimate benchmark for long-term investing success. Investors, analysts, and financial media constantly praise its performance, often portraying it as the premier wealth-building vehicle. But there’s a catch: unlike gold, the Dow is not a constant.

Over the past century, underperforming companies in the Dow have been quietly removed and replaced with stronger performers. Once-prominent names like Union Carbide and Massey Ferguson were left behind as the index evolved to maintain its upward trajectory. This constant reshuffling ensures the Dow always reflects a select group of thriving businesses, making it seem like an unbeatable long-term investment.

Now, let’s compare that to gold. Unlike the Dow, gold doesn’t change. It has been a store of value for thousands of years, immune to corporate failures, economic shifts, and index rebalancing tricks.

Yet, despite all the noise about the Dow’s strength, gold has actually performed just as well, if not better, over the past 100 years.

The attached chart above illustrates a remarkable reality: gold has kept pace with the Dow over the long run despite being dismissed as a relic by mainstream finance. From its fixed price of $20.67 per ounce in the early 1900s, before President Roosevelt changed the fix in 1933 to $35.00 and prohibited U.S. investors from holding gold, savvy investors responded by doing the next best thing: investing in gold properties north of the border, in Canada’s prolific goldfields. This wave of capital helped fuel exploration booms that led to some of the most significant gold discoveries in North America.

That represents a move of over 10,000%, comparable to the Dow’s ascent, without the benefit of removing underperformers along the way. The narrative that gold is an “old-fashioned” or a “pet rock” investment, while the Dow represents the future, simply doesn’t hold up to scrutiny.

This begs the question: If gold has matched the performance of an ever-evolving index, what happens when gold’s true monetary role reasserts itself in an era of extreme money printing, debt expansion, and de-dollarization?

With gold prices at record highs and institutional investors taking notice, we may be entering a new phase where gold not only keeps pace with the Dow but decisively outperforms it.

Update on Goliath Resources (See Previous Article Here)

Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT:TSX.V; GOTRF:OTCQB; B4IF; FSE) is a junior resource exploration company advancing high-grade precious metal projects in the prolific Golden Triangle and northwestern areas of British Columbia.

The company is on track with a new discovery of a large high-grade gold system at its Golddigger property. The Surebet discovery, previously covered by glaciers and permanent snowpack, has now been exposed and drilled for the first time. The project is located in a world-class geological setting and mining-friendly jurisdiction. The Golddigger property sits on tidewater and has excellent infrastructure, including a permitted mill site in Kitsault nearby.

Significant shareholders include Crescat Capital, Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, and a global commodity group based in Singapore. Dr. Quinton Hennigh serves as a technical advisor. Since our last article on Goliath Resources Ltd. (GOT.V), the company has exceeded its first price target of $2.25, demonstrating strong technical and fundamental performance. The breakout from its long-term downtrend and the series of higher lows have reinforced its upward momentum. The stock is now advancing toward its second target of $4.10, with an ultimate big-picture target of $11.50.

The company’s fundamentals remain robust, driven by high-grade gold discoveries and increasing investor interest in the junior mining sector. While pullbacks are natural in any bull run, Goliath’s technical setup continues to support further upside, making it a compelling stock to watch in the gold exploration space.

Update on First Nordic Minerals (See Previous Article Here )

First Nordic Metals Corp. (FNM:TSX; FNMCF:OTCQB) is a Canadian-based gold exploration company consolidating assets in Sweden and Finland to create Europe’s next major gold camp. The company’s flagship asset in northern Sweden is the Barsele Gold Project, a joint venture with senior gold producer Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. Surrounding Barsele, First Nordic owns a 100% district-scale land package that includes the Paubäcken and Storjuktan projects, covering 104,000 hectares on the Gold Line Belt. Additionally, in northern Finland, First Nordic owns the entire Oijärvi Greenstone Belt, including the Kylmäkangas Au-Ag deposit, the largest known gold occurrence in the region.

“2024 was a defining year for First Nordic as we laid the groundwork to become a leading gold explorer and developer. Receiving the TSX Venture 50 award is a testament to our team’s execution on driving growth through strategic acquisitions and project advancements, as well as the support of key shareholders and industry partners. Sweden and Finland globally rank among the most attractive, underexplored, and exciting regions for mineral exploration right now. With a strong resource base and a fully funded, extensive drill program on multiple high-potential targets, we are poised for an exciting 2025 as we continue to advance Europe’s next gold camp.”

First Nordic Metals has also shown significant progress, coming close to achieving its first target of $0.70. The stock has successfully broken out of its long-term downtrend, confirming a bullish reversal pattern. Higher lows and increasing volume indicate strong accumulation, setting the stage for continued gains.

With a combined historical market capitalization of approximately $300 million, First Nordic has substantial upside potential. The next targets of $1.25 and $1.60 remain well within reach, supported by improving sentiment in the gold sector and the company’s expanding exploration portfolio.

Are Investors Ready for This Reality?

At $3,000 per ounce, we might just see the public dipping pie plates into gold-bearing streams across this great land called Canada. The stage is set for a renewed gold rush, and those paying attention to the junior mining sector could be positioned for substantial gains.

As history has shown, when the gold market heats up, Canadian junior exploration companies have the potential to deliver exponential returns. Investors who understand this cycle and position themselves accordingly may find that gold stocks offer not only a hedge against inflation but also a path to significant wealth creation in the years ahead.

Important Disclosures:

John Newell: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/03/03/gold-vs-the-dow-the-100-year-truth-investors-overlook.html?m_t=2025_03_03_10_37_20

Metals Opinions

05 Mar

Gold poised for a rally as support builds from multiple factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold is trading around 2,910 USD per troy ounce on Wednesday, pausing after the previous day’s growth. The temporary slowdown comes as rising US Treasury bond yields exert pressure on prices.

Key drivers influencing gold prices

Despite this pause, gold remains near its record highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions. On Tuesday, the US implemented 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China, worsening the global trade climate and triggering retaliatory measures.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested that tariff reductions for Canada and Mexico may be possible in the future, which has slightly calmed market fears but has not eliminated concerns entirely.

Further bolstering gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset is the broader geopolitical landscape. The US suspended military aid to Ukraine, while reports emerged suggesting a potential easing of sanctions against Russia. These developments increase uncertainty in global markets, enhancing gold’s attractiveness.

In the near term, market participants are awaiting key US economic reports, including the ISM services PMI and employment data. These indicators will provide further clues about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Recent data suggests growing economic strains, strengthening the argument for additional rate cuts, which would further support gold prices.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD has formed a growth wave to 2,900. Currently, the market is consolidating around this level. A breakout to the upside is expected, with a target of 2,974 as the next local resistance level. After reaching this target, a correction towards 2,900 could follow. The MACD indicator confirms this scenario, with its signal line positioned below zero but trending upwards, indicating strong bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, gold has already executed a growth wave to 2,900, forming a consolidation range at this level. If the price breaks downward, a correction to 2,880 is possible before another upward impulse begins. A bullish breakout from the consolidation range would open the potential for a direct rally towards 2,974. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line above 50 and pointing towards 80, indicating a continuation of upward momentum.

Conclusion

Gold remains well-supported by trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While a temporary pullback could occur, the broader trend suggests further upside towards 2,974. Market participants should watch upcoming US economic data releases for additional confirmation of gold’s next move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

01 Mar

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Positions led by Copper & Steel

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (5,475 contracts) with Steel (4,618 contracts) also coming in with a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-7,361 contracts), Gold (-7,049 contracts), Palladium (-2,503 contracts) and with Silver (-1,592 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (90 percent) and Silver (83 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Gold (80 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (42 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (82.3 percent)
Silver (83.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (85.0 percent)
Copper (52.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (47.6 percent)
Platinum (54.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (71.6 percent)
Palladium (42.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.7 percent)
Steel (89.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (68.3 percent)

Steel & Copper top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (25 percent) and Copper (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently and is the only market with a negative trend score.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-6.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.2 percent)
Silver (8.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.1 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (12.7 percent)
Platinum (1.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (13.5 percent)
Palladium (1.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (25.5 percent)
Steel (25.1 percent) vs Steel previous week (12.9 percent)