Archive for Metals – Page 3

Gold Climbs to a Two-Week High: Markets Await a Softer Fed Policy

Gold on Wednesday held above 5045 USD per ounce and traded near a two-week high. The quotes are supported by expectations of a softer Fed policy.

Growth intensified after weak US economic data. Retail sales came in below forecasts in December, pointing to a slowdown in consumer activity and fuelling fears of a cooling economy.

The market is now pricing in a higher probability of three Fed rate cuts this year than two weeks ago.

Investors are now awaiting the publication of US data on employment and inflation, which may provide additional signals about the state of the economy and the regulator’s next steps.

Demand from central banks remains robust. The People’s Bank of China increased gold reserves in January

Technical Analysis

The H4 XAU/USD chart shows that after a sharp collapse in early February from the 5550–5600 area to lows around 4400, gold has entered a recovery phase. The price has stabilised around 5000–5050 and is trading near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The bands are gradually narrowing, indicating declining volatility and the formation of consolidation following strong price swings.

On the H1 chart, the structure is more neutral. Quotes are moving within a narrow 5000–5080 range. The upper boundary acts as local resistance, while the lower acts as support. The market looks balanced, with attempts at a steady advance, but no pronounced momentum.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s rally to a two-week high primarily reflects shifting market expectations towards a more dovish Fed, amplified by recent soft US retail data. While technical indicators show stabilisation and consolidation within a recovery phase, price action remains range-bound and lacks decisive momentum. The near-term trajectory will be critically dependent on incoming US inflation and employment data, which will either validate the current dovish repricing or challenge it. Sustained central bank buying and unresolved geopolitical tensions provide a structural floor, but for a breakout above the current consolidation, gold requires a clear catalyst from upcoming macroeconomic releases.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

10 Feb

Why Trump’s new pick for Fed chair hit gold and silver markets – for good reasons

By Henry Maher, University of Sydney

After months of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed he will be nominating Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. The appointment has been closely watched in the context of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the Fed and its current chairman Jerome Powell.

The immediate reaction to the announcement was a significant crash in gold and silver markets. After months of record highs and stretched valuations, spot prices for gold and silver dropped 9% and 28% respectively after the announcement. The US stock market also fell, with major indexes all reporting modest losses.

However, in the context of concerns over Trump’s interference with the Fed, the market crash can ironically be understood as an early vote of confidence in Warsh’s independence and suitability for the role.

Understanding why requires the context of Trump’s ongoing conflict with the Federal Reserve, and the importance of central bank independence to our current global financial system.

Trump’s war with the Fed

The last year has seen Trump in an unprecedented conflict with the Federal Reserve.

Trump appointed current Chairman Jerome Powell back in 2017. However, the relationship quickly soured when Powell did not cut interest rates as quickly as Trump wanted. In characteristically colourful language, Trump has since called Powell a “clown” with “some real mental problems”, adding “I’d love to fire his ass”.

The war of words descended into legal threats. Trump’s Justice Department announced an investigation into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged fraud in historical mortgage documents. Then last month, in a shocking escalation the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Powell relating to overspending in renovations of the Federal Reserve offices.

Both sets of allegations are widely viewed as baseless. However, Trump has tried to use the investigation as grounds to fire Cook. The case is currently before the Supreme Court.

Powell has hit back strongly at Trump, saying the legal threats were

a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.

Powell received support from 14 international central bank chiefs, who noted “the independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability”.

Historically, presidential interference with the Fed was a major cause of the stagflation crisis in the 1970s. More recently, both Argentina and Turkey have experienced significant financial crises caused by interference with central bank independence.

Who is Kevin Warsh?

Kevin Warsh is a former banker and Federal Reserve governor, who previously served as economic advisor to both President George W Bush and President Trump.

Originally Trump seemed likely to favour the current director of Trump’s National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, for the job. However, Hassett was widely viewed as being too influenced by Trump, intensifying fears about Fed independence.

Warsh appears more independent and brings a reputation as an inflation “hawk”.

What is an inflation hawk?

The Federal Reserve is responsible for setting US interest rates. Put simply, lower interest rates can increase economic growth and employment, but risk creating inflation. Higher interest rates can control inflation, but at the cost of higher unemployment and lower growth.

Getting the balance right is the central role of the Federal Reserve. Central bank independence is essential to ensure this delicate task is guided by the best evidence and long-term needs of the economy, rather than the short-term political goals.

An inflation “hawk” refers to a central banker who prioritises fighting inflation, compared to a “dove” who prioritises growth and jobs.

From Warsh’s previous time at the Federal Reserve, he established a strong reputation as an inflation hawk. Even in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, Warsh was more worried about inflation than jobs.

Given Trump’s past conflict with Powell around cutting interest rates, Warsh might seem a curious choice of candidate.

More recently though, Warsh has moderated his views, echoing Trump’s criticism of the Fed and demands for lower interest rates. Whether this support will continue, or if his hawkish tendencies return leading to future conflict with Trump, remains to be seen.

The market reaction

The crash in gold and silver, and decline in stock markets, suggests investors view interest rate cuts as less likely under Warsh than alternative candidates.

Gold and silver prices typically rise in response to instability or fears of inflation.

The previous record highs were driven by many factors, including global instability, concerns over Fed independence, and a speculative bubble.

That Warsh’s appointment has triggered a market correction in precious metals means investors expect lower inflation, and greater financial stability. The US dollar trading higher also supports this view.

The credibility of the Fed is at stake

The past month has seen much discussion of the changing world order. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently decried the end of the international rules-based order and called for a break from “American hegemony”.

The global dominance of the US dollar is a crucial plank of US economic hegemony. Though Trump clearly remains sceptical of central bank independence, his appointment of Warsh suggests he recognises the importance of retaining the credibility of the US currency and Federal Reserve.

Whether that recognition can continue to temper Trump’s instinct to interfere with the setting of interest rates remains to be seen.

About the Author:

Henry Maher, Lecturer in Politics, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Metals Opinions

08 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculators drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Silver (2,174 contracts) with Palladium (449 contracts) also having a small positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,792 contracts), Steel (-853 contracts), Platinum (-816 contracts) and with Copper (-576 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculator drop Gold Bets for 5th time in 6 Weeks to 37-Week Low

Highlighting the metals data this week was sharp reduction in the Gold speculator positions. The large speculative traders sharply reduced their bullish bets again this week, which is a decline for the third consecutive week and for the fifth time out of the past six weeks. The reduction in the bullish position now totals -85,634 contracts over just the past three weeks brings the overall Gold speculator bullish position down to a total of 165,604 contracts. This marks the lowest level for the Gold position since last May, which is a span of 37 weeks.

The Gold futures price has settled in to end the week at approximately $4,980 and rebounded this week after a hugely volatile past couple weeks. The Gold price shot all the way to $5,625 on January 29th before turning around and then falling all the way back down to a low at approximately $4,430 before rebounding. Gold is still in a parabolic uptrend overall and from the beginning of 2024 to now, the price has jumped by over 144% and has continually hit new all-time highs.

Gold leads Metals Price Performance this week

Precious metals markets were mixed on the week in their price performance. Gold was the highest mover over the past five days with a 2.3% increase. Palladium was next this week with a 1.78% rise while Steel also advanced by 0.51%.

Copper dropped by -0.52% on the week while Palladium was lower by -2.99% and Silver came out the biggest loser on the week with a -6.9% loss.

Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Palladium & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Palladium (99 percent) and Steel (96 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Gold (39 percent), Platinum (44 percent) and Silver (45 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (38.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (54.9 percent)
Silver (44.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (42.0 percent)
Copper (77.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (78.3 percent)
Platinum (43.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (45.8 percent)
Palladium (99.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (96.4 percent)
Steel (95.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (100.0 percent)

Steel & Palladium top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (8 percent) and Palladium (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Gold (-31 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-18 percent) and Platinum (-16 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-30.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-11.7 percent)
Silver (-13.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (-16.9 percent)
Copper (-17.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-15.3 percent)
Platinum (-15.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.5 percent)
Palladium (6.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.9 percent)
Steel (8.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (17.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 165,604 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -39,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 205,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	21.5	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	72.2	3.5
– Net Position:	165,604	-207,778	42,174
– Gross Longs:	214,508	87,964	56,610
– Gross Shorts:	48,904	295,742	14,436
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.4 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	52.9	89.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.8	30.4	-1.9

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,877 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,174 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,703 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	24.6	22.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.1	56.6	8.8
– Net Position:	25,877	-45,725	19,848
– Gross Longs:	38,883	35,248	32,469
– Gross Shorts:	13,006	80,973	12,621
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.9	50.1	62.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.4	10.6	8.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,814 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -576 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.9	31.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	53.7	3.1
– Net Position:	47,814	-62,551	14,737
– Gross Longs:	97,407	87,240	23,314
– Gross Shorts:	49,593	149,791	8,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.8	16.5	90.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.9	15.4	7.1

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 13,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.8	26.8	13.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	54.3	3.7
– Net Position:	13,106	-20,207	7,101
– Gross Longs:	31,468	19,742	9,851
– Gross Shorts:	18,362	39,949	2,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	54.4	80.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.6	13.3	12.0

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,133 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.2	31.5	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	44.8	8.0
– Net Position:	1,133	-2,307	1,174
– Gross Longs:	8,518	5,453	2,557
– Gross Shorts:	7,385	7,760	1,383
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	3.6	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-4.1	-11.5

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 11,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -853 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,340 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.9	54.9	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.0	90.3	0.5
– Net Position:	11,487	-11,980	493
– Gross Longs:	13,849	18,584	679
– Gross Shorts:	2,362	30,564	186
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.6	4.0	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.0	-9.3	35.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals

06 Feb

Gold Closes with a Decline for the Second Week in a Row: Fewer Risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold on Friday was at 4800 USD per troy ounce. It remains in a vulnerable position after declining 3.8% the day before and is moving towards its second consecutive weekly drawdown. This comes amid high selling pressure.

The correction follows a series of updates to historic highs in January. The rise in prices was initially driven by heightened geopolitical risks, concerns about the Fed’s independence, and speculative demand from China. The tension has since decreased, while the protective attractiveness of gold has diminished. Representatives of Iran and the US confirmed that negotiations are taking place in Oman, and the market is closely following their progress.

An additional factor was weak data on the US labour market. In January, the number of layoffs rose to 108.4 thousand, the maximum for this month since 2009. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 231 thousand, and the ADP report on private-sector employment was weaker than expected. A series of these data has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut later this year. At the same time, the market still considers June as a possible time for the first step.

Technical Analysis

The H4 chart shows completed pulse growth with a peak above 5500, followed by an aggressive correction. The decline went to the 4450–4500 zone. From there, the rebound began. The price moved up to the 5000–5050 area but remains below the key 5100–5150 resistance and the Bollinger median line. The structure indicates a phase of high volatility and redistribution after an overheated uptrend.

After a sharp collapse, gold on the H1 chart formed a local bottom in the 4650–4700 range and began to recover. The price is back within the Bollinger Bands and is consolidating near the median line at around 4820–4850. The movement looks corrective, volatility is declining, and the balance of power is still neutral.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s decline reflects a market reassessment, where receding geopolitical fears and a shift towards anticipating Fed easing have removed key pillars of its recent speculative rally. Technically, the sell-off appears to be a volatile but natural correction following an overheated uptrend. While a short-term stabilisation is underway, the price remains vulnerable below critical higher-timeframe resistance. The near-term direction will likely depend on the tone of upcoming US economic data, which will either reinforce or undermine the market’s dovish Fed expectations, and further developments in Middle East diplomacy.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

04 Feb

Gold is Back in the Black: Geopolitics Dictates Conditions Again

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold, on Wednesday, returned above the key level of 5000 USD per ounce and has already approached 5067 USD. The precious metal continues to grow after jumping more than 6% in the previous session, marking the strongest daily increase since 2008. The quotes were supported by purchases following a decline after a sharp correction at the beginning of the week.

Geopolitical risks gave an additional impetus to the precious metal. After US forces shot down an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, demand for defensive assets intensified. At the same time, President Donald Trump stated that diplomatic contacts continue, and the White House confirmed the US-Iran talks scheduled for Friday.

Expectations of rapid Fed rate cuts have eased somewhat since the nomination of Kevin Warsh to head the Fed. Nevertheless, the markets are still pricing in two rate cuts – probably in the middle of the year and later in 2026.

Separately, it is noted that the publication of key US labour market statistics, including JOLTS data and the monthly employment report, will be postponed due to the partial government shutdown. The House voted on Tuesday on the Senate-approved stopgap budget.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart for gold, after completing a powerful uptrend and reaching a peak around 5600, the market entered a sharp correction. The decline was impulsive, as evidenced by the expansion of Bollinger Bands – a sign of panic selling. The minimum was noted in the 4440–4450 zone, from where the technical rebound began. Current prices are recovering but remain below the Bollinger median line. The structure is still corrective, with increased volatility and a predominance of downside risks.

On the H1 chart, after a landslide downward movement, a base and a sequence of higher minima have formed – local stabilisation. The price is trading in a narrow upward channel and gradually moving towards the 5050-5100 resistance zone. However, the recovery looks technical. As long as the quotes are below key resistance and the median line of the higher timeframe, the rebound remains vulnerable to a resumption of selling.

Conclusion

In summary, gold’s sharp recovery is primarily a technical rebound from oversold conditions, supercharged by a sudden flare-up in geopolitical tensions. While the move is significant, the technical structure across timeframes suggests it remains a corrective bounce within a larger downtrend, not a confirmed reversal. The rally is vulnerable as long as prices trade below key higher-timeframe resistance. The fundamental landscape remains mixed, with delayed US data creating uncertainty and revised, but still present, Fed easing expectations providing a floor. Near-term direction will hinge on the evolution of Middle East diplomacy and gold’s ability to breach critical technical ceilings.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

02 Feb

What goes up must come down…

By ForexTime

$15 trillion erased from silver/gold prices on Friday
Central banks and geopolitics back in focus
Bitcoin falls below $75,000 for first time in 10 months
NFP report on Friday may rock global markets

More than $15 trillion was erased from the value of gold and silver last Friday.

This monstrous amount was equivalent to half the size of the entire US economy.

Silver nosedived almost 40%
Gold tumbled nearly 15%

Precious metals have kicked off the new week under renewed pressure already flashing red this morning:

XAUUSD: ↓ 5%
XAGUSD: ↓7%

The selloff was triggered by Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair.

Opinions remain divided over whether Warsh will align with Trump’s view on how the Fed should be run, given his past status as an “inflation hawk’.

Traders are still pricing a less than 40% chance that the Fed cuts rates by April.

WHAT COULD MOVE SILVER/GOLD THIS WEEK:

US Partial government shutdown

Over the weekend, the US government entered a partial shutdown adding another layer of uncertainty to current developments.

This negative development may toss the Fed back into the wilderness as the absence of clear data complicates monetary policy planning.

So, another round of extended delays may force the Fed to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach on rates as it “drives in the fog”.

Geopolitical flashpoints

Last week, Trump threatened to attack Iran while saying he would impose tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba. Should tensions escalate, this may offer much-needed support to precious metals facing a bout of profit-taking and dollar strength.

US January NFP report –

The incoming NFP report could shape the metals outlook for February as discussed in the week ahead report.

Bitcoin slips to fresh 10-month low

Bitcoin tumbled to a fresh 10-month low in Asia trading on Monday, dipping below $75,000.

The “OG” crypto shed fell 11% in January, marking its fourth straight monthly decline — the longest losing streak since 2018…

The overall unrest across global markets and the absence of buyers have contributed to the recent declines.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded three consecutive months of outflows while technical indicators signal the rise of bearish pressures.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

BULLISH: A move back above the 50-day SMA at $87,500 could signal an incline toward $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000.

BEARISH: Sustained weakness below $77,500 could send prices toward $70,000 and lower.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals

01 Feb

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel with a rise by 669 contracts on the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-39,374 contracts), Copper (-4,185 contracts), Silver (-1,511 contracts), Platinum (-1,202 contracts) and with Palladium (-204 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Steel is only price gainer for Metals Markets that saw a sell-off this week

The metals markets were overall lower on the week as the metals saw a steep and sharp selloff to close out the week. Steel was the only market that saw a weekly gain as Steel rose by over 5.50% and is now up by 9.30% in the past 30 days, and higher by approximately 40% in the past 90 days.

Copper was lower by -0.25% on the past five days, followed by Gold which saw a shortfall by -2.85%. Palladium dropped by -16.5% and Silver saw a strong decline lower by -18.86% on the week. Platinum was the biggest loser on the week with a sharp -22.45% decline.

Over the past 30 days, the metals markets have all been higher, led by Silver which has been up by 30.59%, while in the past 90 days all of these markets have been at least 27% higher, with Silver up by 88.29%, Platinum up by 45.87%, Palladium higher by 40.39%, and Steel, which has risen by 40.22%. Gold has seen a 28.95% gain in the past 90 days while Copper has risen by 27.29% in that timeframe.