Archive for Metals

26 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Copper

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (21,421 contracts) with Copper (4,825 contracts), Silver (1,400 contracts), Steel (649 contracts) and Palladium (294 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The only market with a decline in speculator bets this week was Platinum with a decrease by -952 contracts.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Gold & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (94 percent) and Steel (89 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (94.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (86.3 percent)
Silver (76.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (74.4 percent)
Copper (48.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (44.3 percent)
Platinum (50.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (52.8 percent)
Palladium (43.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (40.9 percent)
Steel (89.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.7 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (10 percent) and Silver (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-15 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (9.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (7.5 percent)
Silver (8.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (3.6 percent)
Copper (5.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (1.3 percent)
Platinum (-0.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-11.6 percent)
Palladium (-14.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.7 percent)
Steel (5.3 percent) vs Steel previous week (-0.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 300,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 21,421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 279,363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.016.68.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.473.84.3
– Net Position:300,784-326,60825,824
– Gross Longs:337,28995,11650,638
– Gross Shorts:36,505421,72424,814
– Long to Short Ratio:9.2 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.764.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.6-10.716.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 47,480 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.320.917.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.660.37.8
– Net Position:47,480-62,97715,497
– Gross Longs:75,66033,47627,898
– Gross Shorts:28,18096,45312,401
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.124.845.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-3.5-15.4

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,663 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.933.87.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.243.85.3
– Net Position:16,663-21,7295,066
– Gross Longs:88,85573,47016,520
– Gross Shorts:72,19295,19911,454
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.851.748.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-4.2-5.2

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 14,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -952 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.319.412.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.046.75.0
– Net Position:14,608-20,6106,002
– Gross Longs:48,60514,6519,765
– Gross Shorts:33,99735,2613,763
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.546.756.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.56.0-38.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,036 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 294 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.445.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.66.77.9
– Net Position:-8,0367,326710
– Gross Longs:7,1218,5932,213
– Gross Shorts:15,1571,2671,503
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 16.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.156.267.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.715.8-10.3

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,534 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 649 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,183 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.667.11.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.061.90.7
– Net Position:-1,5341,45777
– Gross Longs:7,22318,936281
– Gross Shorts:8,75717,479204
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.511.240.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.3-5.58.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
22 Jan

Gold Reaches 11-Month High as Global Demand for Safe Assets Surges

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices surged to an 11-month high, reaching 2,750 USD per troy ounce, a level last seen in November of the previous year. The metal’s rally reflects heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating global trade tensions and a weakening US dollar.

Drivers of Gold’s rise

The growing appetite for Gold comes as fears of global ‘trade wars’ intensify. Investors seek refuge in safe assets following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of plans to overhaul the country’s tariff policies. The uncertainty surrounding potential escalations with Canada, Mexico, and China has rattled markets. The market eagerly awaits updates on these developments, but for now, the environment is ripe for Gold’s continued appeal.

In addition, Trump recently vowed to impose tariffs on the EU, though specifics remain unclear. The move is perceived as a potential tool for political leverage, raising further risks for global capital markets.

Another factor to watch is US inflation. Trump’s policies were initially expected to drive inflation, which supported the Federal Reserve’s elevated interest rates. While this would typically weigh on Gold, much will depend on the details of forthcoming economic measures.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

On the H4 chart, XAU/USD formed a consolidation range around 2,689 USD before breaking out upwards to 2,724 USD. After testing 2,689 USD from above, the market resumed its upward movement, breaking through 2,724 USD and advancing towards the next target of 2,761 USD. A correction back to 2,689 USD remains possible in the future. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above the zero level and trending strongly upwards, reflecting bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair consolidated around 2,724 USD before breaking upwards to continue its growth wave. The immediate target is 2,761 USD and is expected to be reached soon. After hitting this level, a downward wave back to 2,724 USD could emerge, potentially extending to 2,689 USD as part of a correction. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line above the 80 level but showing signs of preparing for a decline towards 20, indicating potential short-term bearish movement.

Conclusion

Gold’s rise to an 11-month high reflects its renewed safe-haven status amid escalating trade uncertainties and a softer US dollar. Technical indicators point to further gains towards 2,761 USD in the short term, though a correction to levels around 2,724 USD or 2,689 USD remains possible. Broader movements will depend on developments in US trade policy and inflation, with the market keenly focused on updates from Washington.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
19 Jan

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Changes led higher by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (24,452 contracts) with Copper (7,568 contracts), Silver (5,132 contracts), Palladium (784 contracts) and Steel (414 contracts) also coming in with positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets for the week was Platinum with a dip by -2,287 contracts over the period.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (88 percent) and Gold (86 percent) lead the metals markets this week.

On the downside, Palladium (41 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (86.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (77.0 percent)
Silver (74.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (67.9 percent)
Copper (44.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (37.2 percent)
Platinum (52.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (58.2 percent)
Palladium (40.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (35.2 percent)
Steel (88.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (86.4 percent)

 

Gold & Silver top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (7 percent) and Silver (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Palladium (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (7.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.7 percent)
Silver (3.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.3 percent)
Copper (1.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.3 percent)
Platinum (-11.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.9 percent)
Palladium (-19.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-25.4 percent)
Steel (-0.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 279,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 24,452 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,911 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.417.59.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.374.94.8
– Net Position:279,363-302,45223,089
– Gross Longs:312,56892,07548,250
– Gross Shorts:33,205394,52725,161
– Long to Short Ratio:9.4 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.313.454.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.5-5.8-12.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,080 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,132 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 40,948 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.621.518.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.961.28.9
– Net Position:46,080-59,67613,596
– Gross Longs:71,51132,37927,024
– Gross Shorts:25,43192,05513,428
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.4 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.428.436.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.62.6-25.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,568 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,270 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.636.67.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.043.56.1
– Net Position:11,838-14,5432,705
– Gross Longs:84,90476,42615,377
– Gross Shorts:73,06690,96912,672
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.357.934.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.30.2-9.8

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 15,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,287 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.820.712.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.047.85.9
– Net Position:15,560-20,3444,784
– Gross Longs:47,09815,5079,246
– Gross Shorts:31,53835,8514,462
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.847.337.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.618.8-54.0

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -8,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,114 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.644.811.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.67.97.2
– Net Position:-8,3307,506824
– Gross Longs:7,8559,1142,279
– Gross Shorts:16,1851,6081,455
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 15.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.957.573.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.719.01.1

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,597 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.068.01.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.060.30.7
– Net Position:-2,1832,12063
– Gross Longs:7,14818,659263
– Gross Shorts:9,33116,539200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.1 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.012.739.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.70.7-0.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
17 Jan

Gold Soaring; Copper Back in Gear

Source: Michael Ballanger (1/16/25)

Michael Ballanger of GGM Advisory Inc. shares his thoughts on the current state of the market and one copper stock he believes is a Buy.

USD dollar index is up 0.20% to 109.130 this morning, with the 10-year yield down 2.84% to 4.652% and the 30-year yield down 2.13% to 4.879%.

Gold (+0.47%), silver (+0.68%), and copper (+0.28%) are all higher, while oil (-0.90%) is down $0.71 to $78.00/bbl. Stock index futures are mixed, with the DJIA (-0.21%) down 91.6, but the S&P 500 (+0.34%) up 4.1 points, and the NASDAQ (+0.34%) up 73 points. Risk barometer Bitcoin (+3.54%) is up $3,419 to $100.120.

Copper

Going into year-end, I was concerned that fears over the Trump tariffs would drive investors away from the bullish copper narrative and have a dampening effect on the junior copper developers and explorers and the mighty Freeport-McMoran (FCX:US), which I own as a long- term core position but which only just breached $40 yesterday and is still a good $15.00 off the 53-week high.

Last week, copper prices did a complete bullish reversal just as I was fully expecting a drop to the August lows under $3.90/lb. Instead, it turned just above $4.00 and screamed higher and, as of this morning, has breached the 200-dma by $4.35/lb. trading briskly up to $4.44. If it holds the 200-dma for another day or two, I see the May highs as the next resistance level at $5.19/lb.

I am finally prepared to re-enter the FCX:US trade.

In the GGMA Trading Account:

  • BUY 1,000 FCX:US at $40.00

For option traders:

  • BUY half-position FCX March $40 calls at $2.75

Gold / GDX:US

The superstar of 2024 is continuing its upward trajectory here in 2025 as gold is once again taking the lead in the commodities space. It doesn’t hurt that oil is rebounding off the 60-handle of late 2024, but as I wrote in the GGMA 2025 Forecast Issue, “While a global recession would take its toll on global copper demand, I have not veered for one iota of my bullish theme for gold bullion.” That opinion is bearing out as the knee-jerk reaction to the Trump election victory has now been fully shrugged off, with new highs on the immediate horizon. Prices turned higher just

before Christmas but did not receive the MACD “buy signal” until after New Year’s Da,y followed by bullish turns in the MFI and TRIX indicator,s which are now both on full “buy signals”. With an RSI at 59, the market has more room to advance before approaching overbought status,s so I am going to take a leap of faith and buy the March calls on GLD:US.

  • BUY GLD:US at $250.00 limit

For option traders:

  • BUY GLD March $250 calls at $7.00 limit Target: $15.00 by expiry

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Michale Ballanger: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: All. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
  2. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Michael Ballanger Disclosures

This letter makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the data provided. Nothing contained herein is intended or shall be deemed to be investment advice, implied or otherwise. This letter represents my views and replicates trades that I am making but nothing more than that. Always consult your registered advisor to assist you with your investments. I accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this letter. Options and junior mining stocks contain a high level of risk that may result in the loss of part or all invested capital and therefore are suitable for experienced and professional investors and traders only. One should be familiar with the risks involved in junior mining and options trading and we recommend consulting a financial adviser if you feel you do not understand the risks involved.

Financial News Metals
17 Jan

Gold-to-CPI Ratio Hits New All-Time High

Source: John Newell (1/15/25)

John Newell of John Newell & Associates takes a look at the gold-to-CPI ration as it hits new highs and examines what this means for inflation and living costs.

The Gold-to-CPI ratio, a key indicator of gold’s purchasing power relative to inflation, has recently reached a new all-time high.

This milestone reflects gold’s enduring role as a hedge against inflation, but it also serves as a reminder of the complex forces driving rising costs in today’s economy.

What Is the Gold-to-CPI Ratio?

The Gold-to-CPI ratio measures the price of gold divided by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a common metric for tracking the cost of goods and services.

A rising ratio indicates that gold’s purchasing power is increasing faster than inflation, making it a strong hedge against rising costs.

Historically, this ratio has spiked during periods of economic turmoil, such as the late 1970s when inflation ran rampant, reaching levels that rival today’s economic challenges.

Understanding Inflation: Why Prices Rise

Inflation occurs when the purchasing power of money decreases, causing the price of goods and services to rise. One key driver is the overprinting of currency by governments. When too much money enters circulation, the supply of money outpaces economic productivity, eroding its value. This scenario often leads to higher prices for everyday necessities, from food to housing.

For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, massive stimulus programs flooded economies with liquidity to prevent economic collapse. While these measures helped stave off immediate crises, they also contributed to inflationary pressures as demand surged while supply chains struggled to keep up.

Natural Disasters and Inflation: The Hidden Costs

Inflation isn’t just driven by monetary policy; natural disasters can also play a significant role in pushing up the cost of living. Take the recent fires in California as an example. Such disasters disrupt supply chains, destroy housing stock, and reduce agricultural output, driving up prices for basic necessities like food, housing, and energy.

In California, the destruction of homes and infrastructure has increased demand for materials and labor, pushing construction costs higher. Agricultural losses from fires have also reduced the availability of crops, causing food prices to spike. These localized inflationary pressures can ripple through the broader economy, compounding the challenges faced by households.

Gold as a Safe Haven

As inflation erodes the value of fiat currencies, gold’s appeal grows. Its status as a store of value is particularly evident during times of uncertainty when economic instability or geopolitical turmoil drives investors to seek safety.

The current high in the gold-to-CPI ratio underscores this trend, reflecting gold’s ability to outpace inflation and preserve wealth.

Looking Ahead

The Gold-to-CPI ratio reaching a new peak signals more than just the strength of gold; it highlights the broader economic forces shaping our lives.

From government policy to natural disasters, a range of factors are driving inflation and reshaping the global economy. For investors, this underscores the importance of diversifying portfolios and considering assets like gold to protect against the ongoing erosion of purchasing power.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports, Street Smart, or their officers. The author is wholly responsible for the accuracy of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Any disclosures from the author can be found  below. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

John Newell Disclaimer

As always it is important to note that investing in precious metals like silver carries risks, and market conditions can change violently with shock and awe tactics, that we have seen over the past 20 years. Before making any investment decisions, it’s advisable consult with a financial advisor if needed. Also the practice of conducting thorough research and to consider your investment goals and risk tolerance.

Metals Opinions
06 Jan

Week Ahead: Gold to retest record highs?

By ForexTime 

  • Gold ↑ 1% YTD, adding to 27% gain in 2024
  • Less than 5% away from all-time high
  • Over past year NFP has triggered moves of ↑ 0.8% & ↓ 0.9%
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73% chance of $2611.66 – $2703.68 range next week
  • Technical levels: $2620 & $2670

Gold is already up 1% in 2025 after securing its biggest annual gain since 2010.

The precious metal ended last year 27% higher thanks to central bank buying, falling US rates, and geopolitical risk.

Prices touched a three-week high on Friday morning, supported by a softer dollar and cautious market mood.

Nevertheless, the US December nonfarm payrolls report may shape gold’s outlook for January.

Watch out for other key data releases that could spark market volatility:

Monday, 6th January

  • CN50: China Caixin services and composite PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone HCOB services and composite PMI,
  • GER40: Germany CPI, HCOB services and composite PMI
  • USDInd: S&P Global PMI’s, Fed Governor Lisa Cook speech

Tuesday, 7th January

  • AU200: Australia building approvals
  • EU50: Eurozone CPI, unemployment
  • TWN: Taiwan CPI
  • US500: US job openings, ISM services, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speech

Wednesday, 8th January

  • AU200: Australia CPI
  • EUR: Eurozone PPI, consumer confidence
  • GER40: Germany factory orders
  • USDInd: US ADP employment, FOMC minute

Thursday, 9th January

  • AU200: Australia retail sales, trade
  • CN50: China CPI, PPI
  • EUR: Eurozone retail sales
  • GER40: Germany industrial production, trade
  • RUS2000: Speeches by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid

Friday, 10th January

  • CAD: Canada unemployment
  • JP225: Japan household spending, leading index
  • US500: University of Michigan consumer sentiment
  • XAUUSD: US nonfarm payrolls

Gold is respecting a bullish channel on the weekly timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200 week SMA.

gold weekly

At the current price of $2654, the precious metal is less than 5% away from it’s all-time high at $2790.17.

But do bulls have what it takes to push prices back to records this month?

 

Here are 3 reasons why gold could see significant prices swings:

    1) US December NFP report – Friday 10th January

The US economy is expected to have created 153,000 new jobs in December 2024. This is much lower than November’s 227,000 headline figure. However, the unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Traders are currently pricing in a 54% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March with this jumping to 76% by May.

  • Gold prices could appreciate if a weaker-than-expected NFP reports rekindles bets around aggressive US interest rate cuts.
  • A stronger-than-expected NFP report may drag gold prices lower, as rate cut bets fade further.

Note: Gold cold see heightened volatility before Friday’s NFP due to the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and speeches by Fed officials throughout the week.

Over the past 12 months, the 6 hours after the US NFP release has seen upwards moves for Gold as much as 0.8% or declines as much as 0.9%.

    2) Geopolitical risk

Russia’s recent drone strike on Kyiv and ongoing tensions in the Middle East could spark risk aversion.

Escalating global tensions may send investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.

 

    3) Technical forces

Despite the recent jump in prices, gold remains in a range on the daily charts. Support can be found at $2560 and resistance at $2725.

  • A solid breakout and daily close above $2670 may open a path toward $2700 and $2725.
  • Should prices slip below the 100-day SMA at $2620, this may open the doors toward $2610 and $2600.

golddd

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 73% chance that Gold will trade within the $2611.66 – $2703.68 range next week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Metals
21 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)

Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.913.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.874.25.4
– Net Position:262,041-285,23323,192
– Gross Longs:302,97861,01248,388
– Gross Shorts:40,937346,24525,196
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.719.654.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-0.8-16.4

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.423.920.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.063.18.3
– Net Position:40,264-57,51017,246
– Gross Longs:68,18335,13529,396
– Gross Shorts:27,91992,64512,150
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.030.854.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.518.5-17.7

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.335.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.441.55.6
– Net Position:5,940-11,7505,810
– Gross Longs:81,54074,27517,360
– Gross Shorts:75,60086,02511,550
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.860.352.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.519.4-28.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.419.412.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.441.14.3
– Net Position:13,744-21,3417,597
– Gross Longs:56,23318,95911,841
– Gross Shorts:42,48940,3004,244
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.545.181.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.232.413.5

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.548.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.910.88.3
– Net Position:-7,3116,358953
– Gross Longs:5,6338,1822,356
– Gross Shorts:12,9441,8241,403
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 14.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.449.379.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.726.9-5.9

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.767.70.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.356.20.7
– Net Position:-3,5583,5508
– Gross Longs:7,33820,911226
– Gross Shorts:10,89617,361218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.718.133.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.012.4-13.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
18 Dec

Gold Holds Steady as Investors Await Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices are hovering around 2,650 USD per troy ounce as investors remain cautious, conserving their energy for a potential move depending on the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision later tonight. The predominant market expectation is a 25-basis-point cut in interest rates, but there’s significant uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory for 2025, which will be a key focus in today’s announcements.

Recent robust retail sales data from November, showing a 0.7% increase, have stirred discussions among investors that the Fed might decelerate its pace of rate cuts. This surge in retail sales is seen as a pro-inflationary factor, potentially influencing the Fed’s approach towards monetary easing.

A slowdown in rate reductions would likely be unfavourable for Gold, as lower interest rates generally decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold, making it more attractive. Nonetheless, investors should wait for the Federal Reserve’s statement, which could diverge from current market speculations.

Since the start of the year, Gold has appreciated over 28%, potentially ending 2024 with the highest annual gain since 2010.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 Chart: Gold has established a consolidation range around the 2,675.55 level on the H4 chart. A growth structure has been formed up to 2726.27, and a corrective movement towards 2,635.00 is unfolding. Looking forward, a continuation of the growth wave towards 2743.85 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports the bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but pointed sharply upwards.

H1 Chart: On the H1 chart, Gold has completed a correction to 2,633.00 and is now expected to rise towards 2,680.00. After this increase, a potential decline to 2,658.00 may occur. Once this level is reached, a new growth phase towards 2705.70 will likely extend to 2,743.85. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 50 and aiming towards 80, indicating upward momentum.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
15 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (15,850 contracts) with Copper (493 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,657 contracts), Silver (-2,095 contracts), Palladium (-386 contracts) and with Steel (-784 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Gold (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week.  comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market that is below the midpoint line (50 percent) of the past three years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (84.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.9 percent)
Silver (68.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.8 percent)
Copper (43.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.0 percent)
Platinum (51.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (85.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) is leading the past six weeks trends for metals by falling the least in that time period. All of the metals markets are seeing negative 6-week trends with Platinum (-49 percent) recording the largest downside trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.8 percent)
Silver (-24.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-29.2 percent)
Copper (-11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.5 percent)
Platinum (-49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-34.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.1 percent)
Steel (-10.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 275,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.113.79.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.175.15.2
– Net Position:275,586-296,87121,285
– Gross Longs:324,33266,02546,448
– Gross Shorts:48,746362,89625,163
– Long to Short Ratio:6.7 to 10.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.915.447.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.22.4-13.5

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.024.120.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.763.77.9
– Net Position:41,165-59,84318,678
– Gross Longs:72,51536,37630,557
– Gross Shorts:31,35096,21911,879
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.228.261.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.324.7-15.1

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:40.634.98.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.443.15.2
– Net Position:10,959-16,8895,930
– Gross Longs:84,58572,71116,766
– Gross Shorts:73,62689,60010,836
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.455.953.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.915.0-27.7

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.420.812.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.244.63.8
– Net Position:14,829-23,2888,459
– Gross Longs:54,10520,29912,146
– Gross Shorts:39,27643,5873,687
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.5 to 13.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.040.795.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-49.040.739.9

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.349.814.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.917.18.1
– Net Position:-6,0295,105924
– Gross Longs:5,2057,7702,194
– Gross Shorts:11,2342,6651,270
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.9 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.840.478.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.224.75.2

 

Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.666.80.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.957.50.8
– Net Position:-2,7802,7764
– Gross Longs:7,35419,961250
– Gross Shorts:10,13417,185246
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.715.232.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.010.6-15.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Metals
13 Dec

Gold Prices Recovered, But Future Hinges on USD Trends

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

Gold prices stabilised around 2,690.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday. The quotes fell by almost 1% in the previous session, as investors assessed the latest US economic data. The statistics prompted a rally in the yields of US treasury bonds.

US manufacturing prices rose more than expected in November, fuelling concerns about the future trajectory of inflation, which could climb further and remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2025 target.

Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment benefits reached a two-month high, significantly exceeding forecasts and underscoring risks of a deterioration in the US labour market.

Investors continue to expect the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week. They also anticipate future rate cuts in 2025, although their magnitude is uncertain.

A Federal Reserve rate cut is a positive signal for Gold. As the precious metal does not generate coupon yield, rate reductions lower the opportunity cost of holding Gold, making such investments more attractive for traders.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

The Gold market has established a consolidation range around the level of 2,675.55. Following an upward breakout, a growth wave pushed the price to 2,726.26. A corrective movement towards 2670.66 is unfolding, after which another upward movement towards 2,743.85 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and indicating upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, Gold is undergoing a correction towards 2,670.66. A rise to 2,697.77 could occur shortly, followed by a potential decline to the same level. Once this target is achieved, the possibility of initiating a new growth wave to 2,735.70 is expected, with a possible further extension to 2743.85. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 50 and moving towards 80, suggesting continued upward potential.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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