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Gold Holds Steady as Investors Await Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision

Gold prices are hovering around 2,650 USD per troy ounce as investors remain cautious, conserving their energy for a potential move depending on the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision later tonight. The predominant market expectation is a 25-basis-point cut in interest rates, but there’s significant uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory for 2025, which will be a key focus in today’s announcements.

Recent robust retail sales data from November, showing a 0.7% increase, have stirred discussions among investors that the Fed might decelerate its pace of rate cuts. This surge in retail sales is seen as a pro-inflationary factor, potentially influencing the Fed’s approach towards monetary easing.

A slowdown in rate reductions would likely be unfavourable for Gold, as lower interest rates generally decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Gold, making it more attractive. Nonetheless, investors should wait for the Federal Reserve’s statement, which could diverge from current market speculations.

Since the start of the year, Gold has appreciated over 28%, potentially ending 2024 with the highest annual gain since 2010.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

H4 Chart: Gold has established a consolidation range around the 2,675.55 level on the H4 chart. A growth structure has been formed up to 2726.27, and a corrective movement towards 2,635.00 is unfolding. Looking forward, a continuation of the growth wave towards 2743.85 is anticipated. The MACD indicator supports the bullish outlook, with its signal line below zero but pointed sharply upwards.

H1 Chart: On the H1 chart, Gold has completed a correction to 2,633.00 and is now expected to rise towards 2,680.00. After this increase, a potential decline to 2,658.00 may occur. Once this level is reached, a new growth phase towards 2705.70 will likely extend to 2,743.85. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 50 and aiming towards 80, indicating upward momentum.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals

15 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 10th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as two out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (15,850 contracts) with Copper (493 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-5,657 contracts), Silver (-2,095 contracts), Palladium (-386 contracts) and with Steel (-784 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (86 percent) and Gold (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is the only market that is below the midpoint line (50 percent) of the past three years.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (84.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (78.9 percent)
Silver (68.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.8 percent)
Copper (43.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.0 percent)
Platinum (51.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (64.4 percent)
Palladium (57.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (85.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.7 percent)

Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (-1 percent) is leading the past six weeks trends for metals by falling the least in that time period. All of the metals markets are seeing negative 6-week trends with Platinum (-49 percent) recording the largest downside trend score currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-1.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.8 percent)
Silver (-24.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (-29.2 percent)
Copper (-11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.5 percent)
Platinum (-49.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-34.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.1 percent)
Steel (-10.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-3.5 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 275,586 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,850 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	67.1	13.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	75.1	5.2
– Net Position:	275,586	-296,871	21,285
– Gross Longs:	324,332	66,025	46,448
– Gross Shorts:	48,746	362,896	25,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.7 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.9	15.4	47.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	2.4	-13.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 41,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,095 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	24.1	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.7	63.7	7.9
– Net Position:	41,165	-59,843	18,678
– Gross Longs:	72,515	36,376	30,557
– Gross Shorts:	31,350	96,219	11,879
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	28.2	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	24.7	-15.1

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 10,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,466 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.6	34.9	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	43.1	5.2
– Net Position:	10,959	-16,889	5,930
– Gross Longs:	84,585	72,711	16,766
– Gross Shorts:	73,626	89,600	10,836
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	55.9	53.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	15.0	-27.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 14,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.4	20.8	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	44.6	3.8
– Net Position:	14,829	-23,288	8,459
– Gross Longs:	54,105	20,299	12,146
– Gross Shorts:	39,276	43,587	3,687
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.0	40.7	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.0	40.7	39.9

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,029 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -386 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,643 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.3	49.8	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.9	17.1	8.1
– Net Position:	-6,029	5,105	924
– Gross Longs:	5,205	7,770	2,194
– Gross Shorts:	11,234	2,665	1,270
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	40.4	78.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.2	24.7	5.2

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,780 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,996 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	66.8	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.9	57.5	0.8
– Net Position:	-2,780	2,776	4
– Gross Longs:	7,354	19,961	250
– Gross Shorts:	10,134	17,185	246
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.7	15.2	32.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	10.6	-15.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Dec

Gold Prices Recovered, But Future Hinges on USD Trends

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices stabilised around 2,690.00 USD per troy ounce on Friday. The quotes fell by almost 1% in the previous session, as investors assessed the latest US economic data. The statistics prompted a rally in the yields of US treasury bonds.

US manufacturing prices rose more than expected in November, fuelling concerns about the future trajectory of inflation, which could climb further and remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2025 target.

Meanwhile, initial claims for unemployment benefits reached a two-month high, significantly exceeding forecasts and underscoring risks of a deterioration in the US labour market.

Investors continue to expect the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week. They also anticipate future rate cuts in 2025, although their magnitude is uncertain.

A Federal Reserve rate cut is a positive signal for Gold. As the precious metal does not generate coupon yield, rate reductions lower the opportunity cost of holding Gold, making such investments more attractive for traders.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

The Gold market has established a consolidation range around the level of 2,675.55. Following an upward breakout, a growth wave pushed the price to 2,726.26. A corrective movement towards 2670.66 is unfolding, after which another upward movement towards 2,743.85 is anticipated. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero and indicating upward momentum.

On the H1 chart, Gold is undergoing a correction towards 2,670.66. A rise to 2,697.77 could occur shortly, followed by a potential decline to the same level. Once this target is achieved, the possibility of initiating a new growth wave to 2,735.70 is expected, with a possible further extension to 2743.85. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently above 50 and moving towards 80, suggesting continued upward potential.

Disclaimer

Financial News Metals

07 Dec

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led higher by Gold & Platinum

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as all six of the metals markets we cover had slightly higher positioning.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (9,398 contracts) with Platinum (1,826 contracts), Copper (541 contracts), Silver (477 contracts), Steel (107 contracts) and Palladium (9 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (89 percent) and Gold (79 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (71 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (43 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (78.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (75.3 percent)
Silver (70.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (70.2 percent)
Copper (43.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (42.5 percent)
Platinum (64.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (60.1 percent)
Palladium (60.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (60.6 percent)
Steel (88.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (88.3 percent)

Palladium & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that there are no positive movers currently in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week with Copper (-20 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-13.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (-13.7 percent)
Silver (-29.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.2 percent)
Copper (-20.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-23.8 percent)
Platinum (-34.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-23.0 percent)
Palladium (-4.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (7.7 percent)
Steel (-3.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.8 percent)