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COT Week 29 Charts: Bonds Speculators bets mixed led by Eurodollar, 5-Year & Long Treasury Bond

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT bond market speculator bets were mixed evenly this week as four out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the bond markets was the Eurodollar (80,661 contracts) with the 5-Year Bond (33,108 contracts), the Fed Funds Futures (32,523 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (1,516 contracts) also showing positive changes for the week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Long US Bond (-18,884 contracts) with the Ultra US Bond (-17,487 contracts) coming in a close second while the Ultra 10-Year (-8,368 contracts) and the 10-Year Bond (-333 contracts) also saw lower speculator bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,390,825	11	-2,643,905	4	2,937,912	94	-294,007	40
FedFunds	1,769,139	59	113,578	54	-105,032	47	-8,546	38
2-Year	2,079,265	13	-63,053	70	141,849	51	-78,796	16
Long T-Bond	1,182,312	44	-42,102	71	23,004	19	19,098	68
10-Year	3,431,246	25	-108,704	56	172,612	42	-63,908	64
5-Year	3,916,097	47	-258,015	38	400,930	62	-142,915	42

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (70.9 percent) continues to lead the bonds category in sentiment. The 2-Year Bond (69.5 percent) comes in as the next highest bonds market in strength scores followed by the 10-Year Bond (55.9 percent) and the Fed Funds (53.6 percent). On the downside, the Eurodollar (4.3 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are both in bearish extreme standings this week (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are seen in the 5-Year Bond (37.9 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (44.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (53.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (49.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (69.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (69.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (37.9 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (32.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (55.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (56.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.5 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (21.7 percent)
US Treasury Bond (70.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (77.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (44.1 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (51.3 percent)
Eurodollar (4.3 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (2.8 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the 10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds currently. The 2-Year Bond (21.7 percent), the Ultra 10-Year Bond (10.4 percent) and the Fed Funds (7.3 percent) fill out the rest of the positive movers in the latest trends data. The US Treasury Bond (-15.3 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with negative trend scores were the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) and the 5-Year Bond (-6.2 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (7.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (6.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.7 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (12.8 percent)
5-Year Bond (-6.2 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-12.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (23.9 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (19.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (10.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.3 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-15.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-14.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-12.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-7.8 percent)
Eurodollar (0.0 percent) vs Eurodollar (2.4 percent)

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,643,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 80,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,724,566 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.9	71.7	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.0	40.4	7.5
– Net Position:	-2,643,905	2,937,912	-294,007
– Gross Longs:	455,567	6,735,605	413,100
– Gross Shorts:	3,099,472	3,797,693	707,107
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	93.5	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.0	-1.5	18.3

Individual Markets:

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 113,578 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 32,523 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	72.9	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.6	78.9	2.3
– Net Position:	113,578	-105,032	-8,546
– Gross Longs:	248,072	1,290,344	31,928
– Gross Shorts:	134,494	1,395,376	40,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.6	47.1	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.3	-6.9	-5.7

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -63,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -64,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	78.1	6.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.5	71.3	10.4
– Net Position:	-63,053	141,849	-78,796
– Gross Longs:	279,480	1,623,897	137,606
– Gross Shorts:	342,533	1,482,048	216,402
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.5	50.9	15.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.7	-18.2	-10.1

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -258,015 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 33,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -291,123 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	84.3	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	74.1	11.0
– Net Position:	-258,015	400,930	-142,915
– Gross Longs:	284,416	3,302,273	289,136
– Gross Shorts:	542,431	2,901,343	432,051
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.9	62.2	41.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.2	-1.0	12.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -108,704 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	77.4	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.4	72.4	11.6
– Net Position:	-108,704	172,612	-63,908
– Gross Longs:	351,679	2,655,676	335,131
– Gross Shorts:	460,383	2,483,064	399,039
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	42.4	64.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	23.9	-30.2	22.6

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -35,707 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,339 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.8	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.2	70.1	21.2
– Net Position:	-35,707	149,258	-113,551
– Gross Longs:	61,232	974,246	136,055
– Gross Shorts:	96,939	824,988	249,606
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	78.6	51.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.4	-9.7	-1.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,102 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -18,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,218 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	77.9	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	75.9	12.3
– Net Position:	-42,102	23,004	19,098
– Gross Longs:	90,183	920,782	164,348
– Gross Shorts:	132,285	897,778	145,250
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.9	18.8	67.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	10.2	14.6

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -345,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -17,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -328,295 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.8	84.8	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.1	61.4	8.4
– Net Position:	-345,782	307,679	38,103
– Gross Longs:	49,387	1,113,613	147,987
– Gross Shorts:	395,169	805,934	109,884
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	65.5	55.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	8.3	10.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

16 Jul

Euro, Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real lead Currency Speculators bets lower

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT currency market speculator bets were mostly lower this week as just three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian dollar with a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts while the New Zealand dollar (1,773 contracts) and the Swiss franc (1,411 contracts) also had positive weeks.

The currencies leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Mexican peso (-8,820 contracts) and the Euro (-8,392 contracts) with the Brazilian real (-6,128 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,553 contracts), British pound sterling (-2,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (-897 contracts), Canadian dollar (-788 contracts) and Bitcoin(-591 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting this week’s COT currency data is the continued decline in the Euro speculator positions which fell for a second straight week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks. Euro bets have now dropped by -77,516 contracts in just the past six weeks, going from +52,272 contracts on May 31st to -25,244 contracts this week. This weakness put the current speculator position at the lowest level since March of 2020 but it is nowhere near the extremely bearish levels of years past (for example: -114,021 contracts in 2020 or -182,845 contracts in 2015). There seems to be a lot of room for the speculator position to fall further. Will this bring the Euro price even lower? That is a fascinating question as the largest currency news story of the past few weeks has been the EURUSD reaching parity for the first time in over twenty years. The EURUSD actually hit 0.9952 on Thursday before closing the week near the 1.0080 exchange rate and with the US Federal Reserve poised to raise interest rates further soon – the EURUSD will likely remain under pressure but how low can it go?

The other side of the COT data this week is the continued strength of the US Dollar Index speculator positions. The USD Index speculator bets fell this week for a third straight week but remain very much near their recent highs. Speculative positions recently had three straight weeks of over at least +40,000 net contracts for the first time since 2019 while the speculator position also topped +45,000 contracts (on June 21st) for the first time since March 21st of 2017, a span of 274 weeks. The strong sentiment for the dollar has helped boost the US Dollar Index price to a high over 109.00 this week, reaching the highest level since 2002. With the two largest components of the US Dollar Index, the Euro at 57.6 percent of the index and the Japanese yen at 13.6 percent, so weak at the moment, the DXY might challenge the 110 exchange rate in the weeks to come.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	59,565	88	38,354	89	-40,895	11	2,541	44
EUR	682,031	75	-25,244	27	5,760	78	19,484	7
GBP	231,945	59	-59,089	31	75,405	74	-16,316	22
JPY	223,539	71	-59,998	32	75,067	72	-15,069	23
CHF	41,255	23	-8,724	34	19,882	75	-11,158	20
CAD	139,297	23	3,505	43	-4,653	65	1,148	32
AUD	158,263	51	-41,600	46	52,490	58	-10,890	26
NZD	45,837	36	-5,283	62	8,979	44	-3,696	9
MXN	195,611	47	-23,238	17	20,317	81	2,921	55
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	41,034	28	10,205	60	-10,868	41	663	73
Bitcoin	13,505	77	-171	77	-201	0	372	21

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) leads the currency markets near the top of its 3-year range and in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Bitcoin (77.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the currency markets strength scores with the New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) and the Brazilian Real (60.4 percent) rounding out the only other markets above 50 percent or above their midpoint for the past 3 years . On the downside, the Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and the only one in a bearish extreme level. The EuroFX (27.3 percent) continues to fall and is the second lowest strength score this week.

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (88.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (90.4 percent)
EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (33.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (31.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (35.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (34.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (30.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (44.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (46.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (40.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (62.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (59.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (17.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.2 percent)
Brazil Real (60.4 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (66.4 percent)
Russian Ruble (31.2 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (31.9 percent)
Bitcoin (77.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (87.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) round out the next highest movers in the latest trends data as the CHF, NZD and the JPY have seen improving sentiment from speculators. The Brazilian Real (-34.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores this week while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) followed by the Euro (-23.8 percent).

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (-23.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-17.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (17.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (27.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (19.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-2.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (20.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-25.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-18.9 percent)
Brazil Real (-34.5 percent) vs Brazil Real previous week (-22.0 percent)
Russian Ruble (-15.6 percent) vs Russian Ruble previous week (9.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-10.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-7.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 38,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	85.8	3.9	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.4	72.5	4.7
– Net Position:	38,354	-40,895	2,541
– Gross Longs:	51,109	2,305	5,365
– Gross Shorts:	12,755	43,200	2,824
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.9	10.9	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.4	0.7	-13.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -25,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,392 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	56.5	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.6	55.6	9.4
– Net Position:	-25,244	5,760	19,484
– Gross Longs:	197,240	385,039	83,394
– Gross Shorts:	222,484	379,279	63,910
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	77.7	6.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.8	25.8	-22.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,089 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,208 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	75.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	42.8	15.2
– Net Position:	-59,089	75,405	-16,316
– Gross Longs:	33,850	174,748	18,999
– Gross Shorts:	92,939	99,343	35,315
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.4	74.3	21.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.8	-7.0	-6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -59,998 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,553 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,445 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	71.8	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	38.3	17.1
– Net Position:	-59,998	75,067	-15,069
– Gross Longs:	35,533	160,589	23,147
– Gross Shorts:	95,531	85,522	38,216
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.9	72.3	22.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.2	-14.6	-9.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,724 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,411 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,135 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	63.5	19.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.2	15.4	46.4
– Net Position:	-8,724	19,882	-11,158
– Gross Longs:	7,017	26,217	7,984
– Gross Shorts:	15,741	6,335	19,142
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	75.2	19.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.7	-15.9	-6.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,293 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	46.4	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	49.8	22.0
– Net Position:	3,505	-4,653	1,148
– Gross Longs:	41,613	64,673	31,834
– Gross Shorts:	38,108	69,326	30,686
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	64.9	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-3.6	-12.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -41,600 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,621 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.3	67.0	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	33.9	17.4
– Net Position:	-41,600	52,490	-10,890
– Gross Longs:	30,527	106,112	16,570
– Gross Shorts:	72,127	53,622	27,460
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.3	58.0	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	1.0	-20.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,283 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,773 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	61.7	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.1	42.1	13.4
– Net Position:	-5,283	8,979	-3,696
– Gross Longs:	14,926	28,261	2,436
– Gross Shorts:	20,209	19,282	6,132
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	44.2	9.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.6	-19.1	-12.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -23,238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -8,820 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,418 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	43.1	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.4	32.7	1.6
– Net Position:	-23,238	20,317	2,921
– Gross Longs:	104,715	84,247	6,023
– Gross Shorts:	127,953	63,930	3,102
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.4	81.3	55.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.0	25.2	-7.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 10,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.8	46.0	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.9	72.5	5.6
– Net Position:	10,205	-10,868	663
– Gross Longs:	19,197	18,878	2,957
– Gross Shorts:	8,992	29,746	2,294
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	40.7	72.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-34.5	35.9	-19.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.5	1.6	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.7	3.1	6.5
– Net Position:	-171	-201	372
– Gross Longs:	10,325	216	1,247
– Gross Shorts:	10,496	417	875
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.2	46.1	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	17.5	6.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

16 Jul

COT Week 28 Charts: Copper leads Metals Speculators bets while Gold bets fall sharply

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 12th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT precious metals speculator bets were lower again this week as two out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Copper with a weekly gain of 5,501 contracts while Palladium (608 contracts) also showed a positive week.

The metals markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-27,539 contracts) and Platinum (-3,177 contracts) with Silver (-1,935 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the metals data this week is the continued drop in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculator bets have fallen for three straight weeks and in ten out of the past thirteen weeks. This amounts to a total decline of -136,166 contracts over that 13-week period. The current bullish standing for Gold has dipped all the way to +118,121 contracts which is a steeply lower compared to the 2022 weekly average of +204,891 contracts. The current speculator standing is at the lowest level in the past one hundred and sixty-three weeks, dating back to May 28th of 2019 when spec bets totaled just +86,688 contracts.

Silver contracts have also been in a deep decline as well with speculator bets falling for three straight weeks and for ten out of the past eleven weeks (a total -43,225 contract decline over past 11 weeks). This weakness has brought the overall net position very close to falling into negative or bearish territory at a total of just +3,204 contracts currently. Silver bets, like Gold, are at the lowest level in one hundred and sixty-one weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-12-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,612,803	0	268,328	0	-294,526	100	26,198	52
Gold	542,493	26	118,121	0	-137,788	100	19,667	0
Silver	142,259	9	3,204	0	-9,612	100	6,408	0
Copper	172,037	6	-26,295	23	27,061	78	-766	21
Palladium	6,474	1	-2,802	7	3,252	93	-450	18
Platinum	75,615	48	-5,911	0	1,235	100	4,676	27
Natural Gas	969,204	0	-131,603	39	94,195	61	37,408	69
Brent	171,950	17	-38,388	47	36,619	54	1,769	33
Heating Oil	266,330	22	6,728	52	-22,853	47	16,125	54
Soybeans	611,751	1	115,119	49	-87,284	57	-27,835	24
Corn	1,333,199	0	247,156	62	-196,533	44	-50,623	14
Coffee	195,810	2	34,308	68	-35,166	37	858	0
Sugar	701,144	0	105,869	58	-115,779	46	9,910	20
Wheat	288,182	0	4,639	25	5,041	67	-9,680	60

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show the very weak speculator sentiment levels for the precious metals at the moment. Four out of the five metals markets currently have bearish extreme positioning (below 20 percent) as has been the case for many weeks. Copper (23.4 percent) is the only market not in a bearish extreme level currently but remains in the bottom quartile of its 3-year range of speculator positions. Gold, Silver and Platinum are all at zero percent levels which means that speculator bets are at 3-year lows.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (0.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (11.7 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.6 percent)
Copper (23.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.5 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.3 percent)
Palladium (7.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Palladium (1.9 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week and has the only positive trend among metals. Gold (-23.1 percent), Silver (-14.5 percent) and Platinum (-11.3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently while Copper (-6.0 percent).

Move Statistics:
Gold (-23.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (-16.2 percent)
Silver (-14.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-12.0 percent)
Copper (-6.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (-8.8 percent)
Platinum (-11.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-5.7 percent)
Palladium (1.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.3 percent)

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 118,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -27,539 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.3	24.2	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	49.6	6.1
– Net Position:	118,121	-137,788	19,667
– Gross Longs:	251,126	131,170	52,583
– Gross Shorts:	133,005	268,958	32,916
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.1	25.1	-27.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 3,204 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,139 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	40.7	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	47.4	10.8
– Net Position:	3,204	-9,612	6,408
– Gross Longs:	54,744	57,865	21,748
– Gross Shorts:	51,540	67,477	15,340
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.5	15.6	-16.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -26,295 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,796 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	50.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.9	35.1	8.6
– Net Position:	-26,295	27,061	-766
– Gross Longs:	52,623	87,389	13,967
– Gross Shorts:	78,918	60,328	14,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.4	78.1	20.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	8.0	-19.5

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -5,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.1	39.4	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.9	37.7	5.0
– Net Position:	-5,911	1,235	4,676
– Gross Longs:	32,580	29,758	8,464
– Gross Shorts:	38,491	28,523	3,788
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	27.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	10.0	7.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,802 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,410 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	70.8	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.7	20.6	20.1
– Net Position:	-2,802	3,252	-450
– Gross Longs:	1,001	4,586	853
– Gross Shorts:	3,803	1,334	1,303
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.1	93.0	17.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.9	0.2	-20.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

09 Jul

Currency Speculators drop Euro bets further into bearish territory as EURUSD nears parity

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets were lower this week as all of the eleven currency markets we cover had lower positioning on the week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazil real (-20,695 contracts) and the Euro (-6,256 contracts) while the Canadian dollar (-4,804 contracts), Australian dollar (-4,641 contracts), US Dollar Index (-3,978 contracts), British pound sterling (-3,090 contracts), Japanese yen (-1,875 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,745 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,544 contracts), Bitcoin (-665 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-438 contracts) all saw lower speculator bets for the week.

Highlighting the currency futures data this week was the Euro speculator position that fell deeper into bearish territory and dropped for the fourth time in the past five weeks. The speculator position has now decreased by a whopping -69,124 contracts in just the past five weeks and has brought the overall standing to the lowest level since November 30th of 2021, a span of 31 weeks. The Euro price has been strongly on the defensive against the dollar as the EURUSD currency pair this week hit the lowest level since December 0f 2002. The EURUSD fell to a low under the 1.0200 exchange rate on Friday and sets up what seems to be an inevitable test of parity which would also be the first time that has happened since December of 2002.

More COT currency notes:

US Dollar Index bets fell for a second straight week and dipped below +40,000 contracts for the first time in four weeks. Despite the 2-week decline, the Dollar Index speculator position remains extremely bullish which has seen increases in speculator bets in ten out of the past fifteen weeks. Overall, the Dollar Index positioning has been in bullish territory for fifty-three straight weeks after turning from bearish to bullish on July 6th of 2021. The Dollar Index price this week continued to climb (up 5 out of 6 weeks) and hit the highest level since October of 2002 at above the 107.75 level.

Japanese yen speculator bets fell for the first time in the past eight weeks this week. Yen bets remain bearish but have improved strongly over the past few months going from a total of -110,454 contracts on May 10th to a total of -54,445 contracts this week. Despite, the speculator sentiment improvement, the USDJPY currency pair has remained near the top of its range (and close to 20-year highs) at around the 136.00 exchange rate.

Brazilian real speculator bets dropped sharply this week by over -20,000 contracts and fell for the third straight week. These declines have brought the BRL position down to the lowest level in the past twenty-two weeks at just +16,333 contracts. The Brazil real price has been on the defensive in the past month as the BRLUSD currency pair fell to a five month low this week near the 0.1850 exchange rate and dropped under its 200-day moving average for the first time since January.

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (90.4 percent) and Bitcoin (87.9 percent) lead the currencies at the top of their respective ranges and are both in bullish extreme positions. The Brazilian real (66.4 percent) comes in as the next highest currency in strength scores but took a large tumble this week to fall out of a bullish extreme level. On the downside, the Mexican peso at 21.2 percent continues to be at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by the Euro at 29.8 percent and the Swiss franc at 30.8 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (27.7 percent) leads the past six weeks trends once again this week. The Swiss franc (24.2 percent), New Zealand dollar (20.6 percent) and the Canadian dollar (19.1 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Brazilian real (-22.0 percent) saw a huge decrease in speculator positions this week and leads the downside trend scores currently. The next currencies will lower trend scores were the Mexican peso at -18.9 percent followed by the Euro at -17.1 percent.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,857	91	39,251	90	-41,510	10	2,259	41
EUR	673,772	71	-16,852	30	-8,636	74	25,488	17
GBP	240,926	65	-56,208	34	77,009	75	-20,801	13
JPY	217,672	67	-54,445	35	64,063	67	-9,618	34
CHF	38,504	18	-10,135	31	20,075	75	-9,940	24
CAD	145,372	27	4,293	44	-4,533	65	240	31
AUD	146,950	42	-47,621	41	55,708	60	-8,087	33
NZD	45,403	35	-7,056	59	10,521	47	-3,465	12
MXN	197,463	48	-14,418	21	10,096	77	4,322	61
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	39,470	26	16,333	66	-17,398	34	1,065	77
Bitcoin	13,258	75	420	88	-462	0	42	14

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,978 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,229 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	87.0	3.3	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.5	71.5	4.5
– Net Position:	39,251	-41,510	2,259
– Gross Longs:	52,927	2,023	4,993
– Gross Shorts:	13,676	43,533	2,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	9.9	41.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-1.0	-6.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,256 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	56.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	57.3	8.5
– Net Position:	-16,852	-8,636	25,488
– Gross Longs:	197,138	377,654	82,525
– Gross Shorts:	213,990	386,290	57,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.8	73.6	16.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.1	18.1	-13.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -56,208 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,090 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	74.2	7.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	42.2	16.0
– Net Position:	-56,208	77,009	-20,801
– Gross Longs:	39,618	178,745	17,693
– Gross Shorts:	95,826	101,736	38,494
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.5	75.2	12.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-11.8	-8.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,875 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,570 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.8	68.8	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	39.3	16.1
– Net Position:	-54,445	64,063	-9,618
– Gross Longs:	38,660	149,702	25,452
– Gross Shorts:	93,105	85,639	35,070
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.3	66.9	33.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.7	-20.8	-4.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,544 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,591 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.4	69.2	22.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.7	17.1	48.2
– Net Position:	-10,135	20,075	-9,940
– Gross Longs:	3,218	26,664	8,602
– Gross Shorts:	13,353	6,589	18,542
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.8	75.5	23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.2	-18.5	7.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 4,293 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,097 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	46.7	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.3	49.8	20.8
– Net Position:	4,293	-4,533	240
– Gross Longs:	45,365	67,829	30,460
– Gross Shorts:	41,072	72,362	30,220
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.2	65.0	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-9.6	-11.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -47,621 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,641 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	64.8	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.2	26.9	18.1
– Net Position:	-47,621	55,708	-8,087
– Gross Longs:	27,622	95,252	18,508
– Gross Shorts:	75,243	39,544	26,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	60.4	32.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	1.8	-0.6

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,745 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,311 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.0	63.9	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.6	40.8	13.6
– Net Position:	-7,056	10,521	-3,465
– Gross Longs:	13,634	29,029	2,689
– Gross Shorts:	20,690	18,508	6,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	46.6	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-18.8	-1.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -14,418 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -438 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	41.6	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	36.5	1.3
– Net Position:	-14,418	10,096	4,322
– Gross Longs:	107,141	82,106	6,947
– Gross Shorts:	121,559	72,010	2,625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.2	77.0	61.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	18.5	-1.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -20,695 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	61.5	29.8	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	73.9	5.1
– Net Position:	16,333	-17,398	1,065
– Gross Longs:	24,261	11,776	3,089
– Gross Shorts:	7,928	29,174	2,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	66.4	34.3	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.0	22.5	-8.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,085 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.3	1.2	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	77.1	4.7	7.7
– Net Position:	420	-462	42
– Gross Longs:	10,642	158	1,058
– Gross Shorts:	10,222	620	1,016
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.9	30.9	13.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	20.6	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

09 Jul

Precious Metals Speculator bets for Gold, Copper & Silver hit multi-year lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT Metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts. The only precious metals market to have higher speculator bets this week was Palladium with a rise of just 415 contracts. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Gold (-12,033 contracts) and Silver (-5,752 contracts) with Platinum (-1,428 contracts) and Copper (-1,100 contracts) also having lower bets for the week.

Highlights of the Metals data:

Gold speculators bets have dropped for the past two straight weeks and for nine out of the past twelve weeks. These declines have taken a total of -108,627 contracts off the Gold bullish position in past twelve weeks
Current Gold speculator position has fallen to lowest level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 162 weeks
Silver bets have dropped in nine out of the past eleven weeks (for a total decrease of -41,290 contracts)
Silver speculator positions have now fallen to the lowest level in 160 weeks, dating back to June 11th of 2019
Copper speculator positions are in bearish territory for an 11th straight week and speculator bets have fallen by a total of -67,938 contracts since April 5th
Copper speculator bets have decreased to the lowest level (currently at -31,796 contracts) in the past 120 weeks, dating back to March 17th of 2020

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the speculator sentiment for all of the precious metals is near or at the bottom of each of their 3-year ranges. The highest strength score currently is for Copper (19.5 percent) which is in an extreme bearish level for the past three years (under 20 percent). All the other markets also are in extreme bearish levels as well with Gold, Silver and Platinum residing at 3-year lows of 0 percent each.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-18.3 percent), Silver (-12.3 percent) and Copper (-8.8 percent) are leading the scores to the downside over the past six weeks followed by Platinum (-6.0 percent). Palladium (0.3 percent) is the only precious metals with a positive score although it is barely positive.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,637,862	0	280,523	0	-304,217	100	23,694	48
Gold	498,210	13	145,660	0	-165,585	100	19,925	0
Silver	140,463	7	5,139	0	-11,622	100	6,483	0
Copper	183,331	15	-31,796	19	31,340	81	456	28
Palladium	7,373	5	-3,410	4	4,104	98	-694	4
Platinum	72,895	44	-2,734	0	-1,670	100	4,404	23
Natural Gas	977,507	0	-130,519	39	91,950	60	38,569	71
Brent	166,711	13	-38,514	47	37,309	55	1,205	26
Heating Oil	264,269	21	6,486	52	-22,775	47	16,289	55
Soybeans	638,675	7	125,491	52	-93,638	56	-31,853	17
Corn	1,331,035	0	260,705	63	-207,441	42	-53,264	12
Coffee	193,731	1	46,787	79	-49,139	25	2,352	14
Sugar	713,245	0	83,512	54	-85,255	52	1,743	10
Wheat	288,754	0	8,384	30	623	61	-9,007	64

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 145,660 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -12,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 157,693 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.8	23.7	8.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	57.0	4.8
– Net Position:	145,660	-165,585	19,925
– Gross Longs:	267,806	118,289	43,933
– Gross Shorts:	122,146	283,874	24,008
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	21.1	-29.3

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,139 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,891 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	40.0	16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.4	48.2	11.4
– Net Position:	5,139	-11,622	6,483
– Gross Longs:	54,841	56,137	22,495
– Gross Shorts:	49,702	67,759	16,012
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.3	13.1	-13.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -31,796 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.5	51.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	34.6	8.2
– Net Position:	-31,796	31,340	456
– Gross Longs:	54,073	94,749	15,516
– Gross Shorts:	85,869	63,409	15,060
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	19.5	81.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	8.3	0.6

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,306 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	38.6	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.5	40.9	5.9
– Net Position:	-2,734	-1,670	4,404
– Gross Longs:	31,920	28,155	8,693
– Gross Shorts:	34,654	29,825	4,289
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	23.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.0	6.7	-11.1

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	73.1	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	17.4	20.6
– Net Position:	-3,410	4,104	-694
– Gross Longs:	1,132	5,389	825
– Gross Shorts:	4,542	1,285	1,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	97.7	3.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	1.7	-21.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

02 Jul

Currency Speculators reduced their British Pound and Japanese Yen bearish bets to multi-week lows

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while four markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Mexican peso (12,890 contracts) and the British pound sterling (10,129 contracts) with the Japanese yen (5,884 contracts), Euro (5,009 contracts), Canadian dollar (4,992 contracts), New Zealand dollar (112 contracts) and Bitcoin (39 contracts) also showing a positive week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Brazilian real (-7,317 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-2,374 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-1,781 contracts) and the Swiss franc (-1,434 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the currency contracts this week was the cool off in bearish bets for both the British pound and the Japanese yen.

British pound sterling speculator positions rose for the fifth straight week and this week’s improvement pushed the overall position to the least bearish standing of the past eleven weeks. The GBP speculative standing has been in a continual bearish position since the middle of February but has come down from a total of -80,372 contracts on May 24th to a total of -53,118 contracts this week after the past five week’s improvement (by 27,254 contracts). The GBPUSD exchange rate has remained in a downtrend despite the recent cool off in speculator sentiment and touched below the 1.20 exchange this week for the second time this month.

Japanese yen speculator bets rose for the seventh straight week this week and reached the least bearish position of the past 27 weeks. Japanese yen bets have been sharply bearish for over a year were at -110,454 contracts as recently as May 10th. The past seven weeks have shaved 57,884 contracts off the bearish level and brought the current speculative position to a total of -52,570 contracts this week. The exchange rate for the USDJPY currency pair remains at the top of its range (yen weakness) and near 20-year highs around 135.00.

In other currency contracts, the US Dollar Index speculator positions slid a bit this week after rising for six out of the previous seven weeks. The Dollar Index spec position had hit a new 5-year high last week at over +45,000 contracts and was at a 100 percent strength score (measured against past 3-years spec positioning). This week’s decline doesn’t dent the overall position much as the net position remains over +43,000 contracts for the third straight week. The Dollar Index futures price has remained strongly in an uptrend and reached a high over 105 this week before closing just below that figure at 104.91.

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bitcoin (100 percent), the US Dollar Index (97 percent) and the Brazilian real (87 percent) are currently near the top of their ranges and in bullish extreme levels. The Mexican peso at 21 percent is at the lowest strength level currently and followed by the Euro at 32 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese yen (31 percent) is on the greatest move of the past six weeks. The Canadian dollar (27 percent), New Zealand dollar (21 percent) and the Swiss franc (20 percent) round out the top movers in the latest data. The Mexican peso at -18 percent leads the downtrending currencies followed by the Euro at -10 percent and the Brazilian real at -1 percent.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	63,143	96	43,229	97	-46,558	2	3,329	53
EUR	671,472	70	-10,596	32	-19,812	70	30,408	25
GBP	228,736	57	-53,118	36	70,230	71	-17,112	20
JPY	213,767	64	-52,570	37	67,895	69	-15,325	22
CHF	40,123	21	-8,591	35	17,862	72	-9,271	26
CAD	142,584	25	9,097	50	-12,247	59	3,150	36
AUD	139,891	37	-42,980	45	47,163	54	-4,183	42
NZD	40,337	25	-5,311	62	8,551	44	-3,240	14
MXN	193,536	46	-13,980	21	9,107	77	4,873	64
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	60,107	54	37,028	87	-38,531	14	1,503	82
Bitcoin	13,707	78	1,085	100	-947	0	-138	10

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 43,229 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,010 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.5	3.7	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	77.4	3.2
– Net Position:	43,229	-46,558	3,329
– Gross Longs:	54,646	2,340	5,371
– Gross Shorts:	11,417	48,898	2,042
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	1.9	52.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.7	-11.2	0.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,605 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	56.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	59.6	8.0
– Net Position:	-10,596	-19,812	30,408
– Gross Longs:	189,414	380,084	83,853
– Gross Shorts:	200,010	399,896	53,445
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.7	70.4	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	9.0	-1.3

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,118 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,247 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	74.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	44.0	15.4
– Net Position:	-53,118	70,230	-17,112
– Gross Longs:	35,184	170,967	18,055
– Gross Shorts:	88,302	100,737	35,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.7	71.2	20.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-14.3	-4.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -52,570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -58,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.1	71.1	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	39.4	17.6
– Net Position:	-52,570	67,895	-15,325
– Gross Longs:	36,462	152,071	22,379
– Gross Shorts:	89,032	84,176	37,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.5	68.8	22.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	30.6	-23.0	-5.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -8,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,434 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	64.8	23.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.7	20.3	47.0
– Net Position:	-8,591	17,862	-9,271
– Gross Longs:	4,523	25,994	9,588
– Gross Shorts:	13,114	8,132	18,859
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.7	72.0	26.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-21.2	18.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 9,097 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,992 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,105 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	45.9	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	54.5	18.5
– Net Position:	9,097	-12,247	3,150
– Gross Longs:	45,893	65,407	29,537
– Gross Shorts:	36,796	77,654	26,387
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	49.6	58.5	36.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.5	-20.7	2.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -42,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.6	61.7	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.4	28.0	17.1
– Net Position:	-42,980	47,163	-4,183
– Gross Longs:	28,887	86,347	19,791
– Gross Shorts:	71,867	39,184	23,974
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	54.1	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-5.4	13.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -5,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 112 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	64.9	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	43.7	13.6
– Net Position:	-5,311	8,551	-3,240
– Gross Longs:	11,720	26,167	2,256
– Gross Shorts:	17,031	17,616	5,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	43.6	14.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.8	4.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -13,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,890 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.3	40.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.5	36.1	1.1
– Net Position:	-13,980	9,107	4,873
– Gross Longs:	107,031	79,060	7,059
– Gross Shorts:	121,011	69,953	2,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	21.4	76.6	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.0	17.2	3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,028 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.7	22.8	5.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.1	86.9	3.0
– Net Position:	37,028	-38,531	1,503
– Gross Longs:	43,088	13,691	3,307
– Gross Shorts:	6,060	52,222	1,804
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	86.8	13.7	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	0.9	1.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,085 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 39 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.3	0.8	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.3	7.7	7.5
– Net Position:	1,085	-947	-138
– Gross Longs:	11,137	115	890
– Gross Shorts:	10,052	1,062	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	2.8	9.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.2	-4.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

02 Jul

COT Week 26 Charts: Precious Metals Speculators bets head lower led by Copper & Silver

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 28th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

The COT metals market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while five markets had lower contracts.

The only precious metals market with higher speculator bets was Palladium with a net gain of just 221 contracts on the week.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Copper (-9,758 contracts) and Silver (-7,528 contracts) with Gold (-5,594 contracts) and Platinum (-2,797 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that all of the metals are in bearish extreme levels at the moment. Copper (20 percent) is at the highest level of all but still right at the cusp of the bearish extreme level while all the other metals are at just 2 percent or under, signifying that these are right at the bottom of their 3-year speculator sentiment range.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) show a similar picture as well with all the metals seeing downtrends for the past six weeks. Gold at -9 percent is leading the trends lower followed by Silver at -8 percent with the other metals all at -5 percent or lower.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-28-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,651,566	0	299,692	3	-327,938	99	28,246	55
Gold	497,005	13	157,693	2	-182,007	98	24,314	16
Silver	135,775	3	10,891	0	-18,485	100	7,594	0
Copper	182,352	14	-30,696	20	31,197	81	-501	22
Palladium	7,765	6	-3,825	1	4,441	100	-616	8
Platinum	68,232	36	-1,306	2	-3,381	100	4,687	27
Natural Gas	987,740	0	-129,419	40	90,840	60	38,579	71
Brent	173,920	19	-42,677	40	41,434	62	1,243	26
Heating Oil	269,168	23	7,508	53	-25,743	44	18,235	62
Soybeans	653,337	11	137,193	56	-106,705	52	-30,488	20
Corn	1,338,054	0	328,102	72	-274,110	33	-53,992	12
Coffee	194,896	2	45,200	78	-47,147	26	1,947	9
Sugar	734,324	0	122,709	62	-132,877	43	10,168	20
Wheat	291,041	0	7,679	29	-1,871	57	-5,808	80

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 157,693 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 163,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	23.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.3	60.2	4.1
– Net Position:	157,693	-182,007	24,314
– Gross Longs:	268,712	117,038	44,823
– Gross Shorts:	111,019	299,045	20,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.6	98.3	16.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.9	12.0	-25.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,891 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,419 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.0	40.8	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.0	54.4	11.1
– Net Position:	10,891	-18,485	7,594
– Gross Longs:	52,932	55,406	22,724
– Gross Shorts:	42,041	73,891	15,130
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.7	-5.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -30,696 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,758 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	56.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.0	39.7	8.2
– Net Position:	-30,696	31,197	-501
– Gross Longs:	47,782	103,666	14,516
– Gross Shorts:	78,478	72,469	15,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.3	80.9	22.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.6	-10.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,306 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,491 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.7	41.6	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.6	46.6	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,306	-3,381	4,687
– Gross Longs:	28,451	28,413	8,503
– Gross Shorts:	29,757	31,794	3,816
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.5	100.0	27.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.0	4.6	2.7

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -3,825 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.8	73.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.0	15.9	19.4
– Net Position:	-3,825	4,441	-616
– Gross Longs:	1,146	5,674	893
– Gross Shorts:	4,971	1,233	1,509
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.3	99.6	8.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	4.6	-12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

CountingPips Forex Blog investing Metals Opinions

26 Jun

Currency Speculators boost Japanese Yen bets to 15-week high while Canadian dollar bets drop sharply

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Currency market speculator bets overall were mixed this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover (Note: Russian Ruble positions have not been updated by CFTC since March) had higher positioning this week while six markets had lower contracts for the week.

Leading the gains for currency markets was the Japanese yen (11,301 contracts) and the British pound sterling (2,349 contracts) with the Australian dollar (2,648 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,415 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (534 contracts) also showing positive changes on the week.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Canadian dollar (-19,097 contracts) and the Euro (-9,587 contracts) with the Brazil real (-2,868 contracts), Mexican peso (-489 contracts), Swiss franc (-349 contracts) and Bitcoin (-15 contracts) also showing lower speculator positions through June 21st.

Currency Position Notables:

Japanese Yen large speculator bets rose for the 6th straight week this week and this improvement has brought the overall speculator standing to the least bearish level of the past 15 weeks at -58,454 contracts. Speculators have trimmed a total of 52,000 contracts off of the total bearish position in these past six weeks after the standing hit -110,454 contracts on May 10th. Yen bets have been in bearish territory since March 13th of 2021 (67 weeks running) with the highest bearish level of the cycle occurring on April 12th at a total of -111,827 contracts.

Canadian dollar bets dropped sharply by -19,097 contracts this week and fell for the first time in the last five weeks. CAD speculator bets had risen over the previous four weeks by a total of +37,698 contracts. The decline this week brings the CAD speculator position into a virtual neutral level at an overall bullish position of just +4,105 contracts as the speculator position has yet to find a sustainable trend and has been alternating between bearish and bullish net positions over the past few months.

The US Dollar Index rose for a 3rd straight week this week and hit a new 5-year high level at +45,010 contracts. This is the first time the overall position has topped +45,000 contracts since March 21st of 2017 and the continued bullish sentiment for the DXY has pushed the US Dollar Index strength score (3-year range) to the very top of its range (100 percent – extreme bullish).

Euro positions fell for the third straight week and dropped to its most bearish level of the past 29 weeks. The strength score for the Euro has dropped to just a 30.2 percent and it seems the speculator positioning is catching up to the bearishness of the EURUSD exchange rate. The speculator net position had been at a twelve-week high on May 31st at a total of +52,272 contracts before dropping over the past three weeks to settle at -15,605 contracts this week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, ranging from 0 to 100 where above 80 percent is extreme bullish, below 20 percent is extreme bearish and 100 percent is the top of the range) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (99.7 percent) and the Brazilian Real (94 percent) are all in extreme bullish positions. On the bearish side, the Mexican Peso is the only currency currently in an extreme bearish position with a score of 15.9 percent.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Japanese Yen (32.0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (21.8 percent) are leading the strength trends over the past six weeks. Both of these markets have overall bearish net positions but have seen the bearish sentiment cooling off strongly. The Mexican Peso leads the downside trends for another week with a -18.6 percent score.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	58,543	86	45,010	100	-46,746	2	1,736	36
EUR	671,718	70	-15,605	30	-18,182	71	33,787	30
GBP	228,266	57	-63,247	28	77,902	76	-14,655	25
JPY	218,076	67	-58,454	33	74,349	72	-15,895	21
CHF	37,669	16	-7,157	38	14,958	67	-7,801	31
CAD	140,047	23	4,105	44	-6,578	63	2,473	35
AUD	137,017	35	-40,606	47	44,608	52	-4,002	43
NZD	42,889	30	-5,423	62	8,756	44	-3,333	13
MXN	191,265	45	-26,870	16	22,977	82	3,893	60
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	68,858	65	44,345	94	-45,996	6	1,651	84
Bitcoin	13,537	77	1,046	100	-995	0	-51	12

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 45,010 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 534 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 44,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	88.2	2.9	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.3	82.7	4.8
– Net Position:	45,010	-46,746	1,736
– Gross Longs:	51,606	1,676	4,522
– Gross Shorts:	6,596	48,422	2,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.8 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	1.6	35.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.1	-15.2	-7.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -15,605 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	55.6	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.4	58.3	7.7
– Net Position:	-15,605	-18,182	33,787
– Gross Longs:	195,554	373,695	85,208
– Gross Shorts:	211,159	391,877	51,421
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.2	70.9	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.0	12.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -63,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,596 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.5	77.6	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.2	43.5	14.2
– Net Position:	-63,247	77,902	-14,655
– Gross Longs:	28,470	177,170	17,735
– Gross Shorts:	91,717	99,268	32,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.4	75.8	25.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-10.3	2.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -58,454 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 11,301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.4	71.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.3	37.6	17.9
– Net Position:	-58,454	74,349	-15,895
– Gross Longs:	35,864	156,248	23,099
– Gross Shorts:	94,318	81,899	38,994
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	71.9	21.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-24.7	-2.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,157 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	66.2	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.1	26.5	46.4
– Net Position:	-7,157	14,958	-7,801
– Gross Longs:	3,068	24,927	9,673
– Gross Shorts:	10,225	9,969	17,474
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.4	67.3	31.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.8	-23.7	21.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 4,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,202 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	47.9	20.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	52.6	18.9
– Net Position:	4,105	-6,578	2,473
– Gross Longs:	42,260	67,084	29,011
– Gross Shorts:	38,155	73,662	26,538
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	63.2	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-7.9	0.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,606 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,648 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,254 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	60.2	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.8	27.7	16.6
– Net Position:	-40,606	44,608	-4,002
– Gross Longs:	31,745	82,514	18,756
– Gross Shorts:	72,351	37,906	22,758
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	52.2	42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-1.9	3.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,423 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.2	60.8	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.8	40.3	12.8
– Net Position:	-5,423	8,756	-3,333
– Gross Longs:	14,652	26,056	2,145
– Gross Shorts:	20,075	17,300	5,478
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.2	43.9	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.7	-12.5	6.3

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -26,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -489 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,381 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.3	45.8	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	64.3	33.8	1.3
– Net Position:	-26,870	22,977	3,893
– Gross Longs:	96,147	87,609	6,317
– Gross Shorts:	123,017	64,632	2,424
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.9	82.4	59.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.6	18.3	-1.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,345 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,868 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,213 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	14.6	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	81.3	2.3
– Net Position:	44,345	-45,996	1,651
– Gross Longs:	55,599	10,020	3,238
– Gross Shorts:	11,254	56,016	1,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	6.4	84.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.5	-3.9	4.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,061 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.5	0.6	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	69.8	7.9	8.1
– Net Position:	1,046	-995	-51
– Gross Longs:	10,495	78	1,048
– Gross Shorts:	9,449	1,073	1,099
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.7	0.0	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.3	-11.9	-3.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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26 Jun

COT Week 25 Charts: Metals Speculator bets slightly higher as Gold & Silver bets gain

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 21st and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT metals market speculator bets were mostly higher for the week as three out of the five metals markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the precious metals markets was Gold (8,689 contracts) and Silver (4,414 contracts) with Palladium (11 contracts) also showing a small positive week. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Copper (-7,141 contracts) while Platinum (-723 contracts) also registered lower bets on the week.

Notes:

Highlighting the data for metals this week is the Gold positioning. Gold speculative positions rebounded a bit this week after seeing a sharp decline last week of over -20,000 contracts. The Gold net position has been mostly on the defensive since March 8th when the spec level had reached a total of +274,388 contracts which was a 61-week high, dating back to January 5th of 2021. Since then, the overall bullish position has shed a total of -111,101 contracts to settle at this week’s net standing of +163,287 contracts (just 4.4 percent level of its 3-year range). The Gold futures price, however, remains in an uptrend on the daily charts and is sitting right on a significant upward trendline that started in March of 2021.

Silver positioning, much like Gold’s, has been under pressure over the past fifteen weeks. On March 8th, Silver bets reached a forty-three week high at +52,297 contracts, coinciding with the Silver futures price hitting a 2022 high of $27.49. Since then, speculator bets have cooled and have fallen in ten out of the past fifteen weeks (and by a total of -33,878 contracts) to this week’s standing of just +18,419 contracts. The Silver futures price has been on a downtrend since April, currently trading at just over $21.00 and possibly on its way towards the significant psychological level of $20.00.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that Copper (27 percent) remains the only precious metals futures market that is not in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent). A rising interest rate environment with a strong US Dollar has weighed on the precious metals category as speculator futures sentiment continues to be really weak at the moment.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that Gold (-15.1 percent) and Palladium (-4.5 percent) lead the downward trends over the past six weeks. Copper (1.2 percent) and Platinum (0.2 percent) are the only two markets with positive trends over the time period.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-21-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,658,636	0	289,502	0	-323,915	100	34,413	64
Gold	500,276	14	163,287	4	-186,929	96	23,642	14
Silver	145,356	12	18,419	7	-27,250	93	8,831	4
Copper	187,170	17	-20,938	27	18,928	72	2,010	37
Palladium	7,641	6	-4,046	0	4,511	100	-465	17
Platinum	64,946	30	1,491	6	-6,397	96	4,906	30
Natural Gas	1,030,971	0	-130,869	39	85,977	58	44,892	86
Brent	173,098	18	-38,010	47	36,052	53	1,958	36
Heating Oil	268,818	23	9,564	56	-28,204	41	18,640	63
Soybeans	745,494	32	178,379	68	-152,968	38	-25,411	28
Corn	1,512,152	23	380,169	79	-326,474	25	-53,695	12
Coffee	192,832	0	49,371	81	-52,348	22	2,977	20
Sugar	779,773	0	163,111	70	-181,280	34	18,169	30
Wheat	320,326	6	19,067	44	-15,407	38	-3,660	91

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 163,287 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,689 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 154,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.6	24.0	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	61.4	4.1
– Net Position:	163,287	-186,929	23,642
– Gross Longs:	268,119	120,045	44,380
– Gross Shorts:	104,832	306,974	20,738
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	96.0	13.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.1	19.7	-38.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 18,419 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.2 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.5	37.7	17.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	56.5	11.1
– Net Position:	18,419	-27,250	8,831
– Gross Longs:	54,451	54,828	25,018
– Gross Shorts:	36,032	82,078	16,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.9	93.4	4.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.0	4.2	-13.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,938 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,141 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -13,797 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.8	55.5	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.0	45.3	8.0
– Net Position:	-20,938	18,928	2,010
– Gross Longs:	50,230	103,789	16,909
– Gross Shorts:	71,168	84,861	14,899
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.3	72.5	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.2	-0.2	-7.9

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 1,491 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.4 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.5	43.9	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.2	53.7	5.4
– Net Position:	1,491	-6,397	4,906
– Gross Longs:	25,676	28,487	8,413
– Gross Shorts:	24,185	34,884	3,507
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.5	96.2	30.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.2	-1.4	12.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -4,046 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 11 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	74.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	15.0	18.6
– Net Position:	-4,046	4,511	-465
– Gross Longs:	1,009	5,655	960
– Gross Shorts:	5,055	1,144	1,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	100.0	17.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	6.0	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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18 Jun

Currency Speculators boost US Dollar Index bets to 5-year high while Euro bets dip into bearish level

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

There were many really large moves this week in the COT positioning as the data was recorded on Tuesday – just one day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 75 basis point increase in the US benchmark Fed Funds rate.

Currency market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets (Russian ruble futures positions have not been updated by the CFTC since March) we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts. Leading the gains for currency market positions was the Canadian dollar (24,264 contracts) and the Japanese yen (21,891 contracts) with the New Zealand dollar (12,933 contracts), Swiss franc (9,324 contracts), US Dollar Index (6,538 contracts), British pound sterling (5,214 contracts), Australian dollar (4,642 contracts), Bitcoin (571 contracts) and Brazil real (508 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets were the Mexican peso (-59,107 contracts) and the Euro (-56,561 contracts) this week.

Currency Speculators Notes:

US Dollar Index speculators raised their bullish bets for a second straight week this week and for the seventh time in the past ten weeks. These increases pushed the large speculator standing (+44,476 contracts) to the highest level in the past two hundred and seventy-three weeks, dating back more than five years to March 21st of 2017. The most bullish level ever was +81,270 contracts on March 10th of 2015. The US dollar strength keeps rolling along and the overall standing has now remained bullish for the past fifty consecutive weeks, dating back to July of 2021. The US Dollar Index price has continued its strength as well and reached a high this week of over 105.75 which is the best level for the DXY since back in December of 2002.

Euro speculators sharply dropped their positions this week by the most on record with a huge decline of -56,561 contracts. This record decline beat out the previous high of -52,107 contracts that took place on June 19th of 2018. Euro bets had been gaining over the past month and were at a total of +50,543 contracts before this week’s sharp turnaround which has now tipped the overall spec positioning into bearish territory for the first time since January.

Japanese yen speculator bets surged this week (+21,891 contracts) and gained for the fifth straight week. Yen speculator positions have been in bearish territory for over a year and have been extremely week since many central banks around the world started raising their interest rates. The Bank of Japan has not raised rates and has signaled that it will not do so, creating large interest rate differentials compared to the other major currencies. Despite the spec bets increase this week, the yen exchange rate came under further pressure this week with the USDJPY price closing over the 135.00 exchange rate (and remaining near 20-year highs).

Mexican Peso speculator bets fell sharply by -59,381 contracts this week and flipped the MXN speculator positioning from bullish to bearish. The weekly speculator decline is the largest fall in the past thirteen weeks and the decrease into a bearish standing is the first time since March 29th.

Canadian dollar bets jumped this week by the most in the past seventy-seven weeks and brought the speculator position back into bullish territory for the first time in six weeks. CAD speculator bets have now gained for four straight weeks and the overall spec standing is residing at the highest level since July 2021.

New Zealand dollar speculators also boosted their bets this week after the NZD positions had dropped in six out of the previous seven weeks. This week’s rise in weekly bets was the most in the past thirteen weeks but the overall speculator standing remains in bearish territory for the seventh straight week.

Strength scores (3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Dollar Index (100 percent), Bitcoin (100 percent) and the Brazilian Real (96.8 percent) are leading the strength scores and are all in extreme bullish positions. On the downside, the Mexican peso (16.1 percent) has fallen into extreme bearish positioning followed by the Japanese yen (25.9 percent) and British pound (26.7 percent) which are just above the 20 percent extreme bearish threshold.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the US Dollar Index (19.5 percent), Japanese yen (19.1 percent) and Swiss franc (18 percent) have the highest six-week trend scores currently. The Mexican peso also leads the trends on the downside with a -17.5 percent trend change.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-14-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	61,144	91	44,476	100	-47,736	0	3,260	52
EUR	668,164	69	-6,018	33	-28,495	68	34,513	32
GBP	238,322	63	-65,596	27	81,063	78	-15,467	24
JPY	232,513	77	-69,755	26	86,443	78	-16,688	20
CHF	39,362	20	-6,808	39	18,147	72	-11,339	19
CAD	175,219	47	23,202	65	-30,284	43	7,082	44
AUD	142,857	39	-43,254	45	44,710	52	-1,456	49
NZD	45,410	35	-6,838	60	9,773	45	-2,935	18
MXN	197,375	48	-26,381	16	23,148	82	3,233	57
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	69,931	67	47,213	97	-48,458	4	1,245	79
Bitcoin	12,242	68	1,061	100	-947	0	-114	10

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 44,476 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,938 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	2.9	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	80.9	3.8
– Net Position:	44,476	-47,736	3,260
– Gross Longs:	53,133	1,752	5,553
– Gross Shorts:	8,657	49,488	2,293
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	52.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.2	-19.1	7.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -56,561 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.0	54.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	58.3	7.5
– Net Position:	-6,018	-28,495	34,513
– Gross Longs:	206,986	361,159	84,823
– Gross Shorts:	213,004	389,654	50,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.2	67.9	31.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.1	-1.1	5.9

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -65,596 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,810 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	77.2	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	43.2	15.1
– Net Position:	-65,596	81,063	-15,467
– Gross Longs:	29,343	184,011	20,625
– Gross Shorts:	94,939	102,948	36,092
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	77.6	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.9	-4.7	-0.5

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -69,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 21,891 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -91,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.0	75.6	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	38.4	16.8
– Net Position:	-69,755	86,443	-16,688
– Gross Longs:	32,441	175,789	22,340
– Gross Shorts:	102,196	89,346	39,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	25.9	77.8	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.1	-16.5	5.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,808 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,132 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.9	66.2	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.2	20.1	51.7
– Net Position:	-6,808	18,147	-11,339
– Gross Longs:	4,291	26,045	9,026
– Gross Shorts:	11,099	7,898	20,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	72.4	19.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.0	-19.8	17.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 23,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 24,264 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	45.1	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	62.4	12.7
– Net Position:	23,202	-30,284	7,082
– Gross Longs:	56,550	79,064	29,357
– Gross Shorts:	33,348	109,348	22,275
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.4	43.5	44.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.9	-14.4	6.3

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -43,254 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,896 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	59.9	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.4	28.6	16.0
– Net Position:	-43,254	44,710	-1,456
– Gross Longs:	31,660	85,591	21,342
– Gross Shorts:	74,914	40,881	22,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	52.2	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.7	7.8	10.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,933 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,771 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.8	61.8	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	40.3	11.4
– Net Position:	-6,838	9,773	-2,935
– Gross Longs:	14,894	28,062	2,236
– Gross Shorts:	21,732	18,289	5,171
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.8	45.5	18.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.4	-0.2	3.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -26,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -59,107 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,726 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.8	38.3	3.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.2	26.5	1.5
– Net Position:	-26,381	23,148	3,233
– Gross Longs:	114,093	75,532	6,170
– Gross Shorts:	140,474	52,384	2,937
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.1	82.5	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.5	17.4	-2.9

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 47,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,705 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.0	12.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	81.8	2.8
– Net Position:	47,213	-48,458	1,245
– Gross Longs:	58,023	8,711	3,197
– Gross Shorts:	10,810	57,169	1,952
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	4.0	79.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.3	-5.0	-4.0

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,061 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 490 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.7	0.5	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	73.0	8.2	9.2
– Net Position:	1,061	-947	-114
– Gross Longs:	9,996	62	1,008
– Gross Shorts:	8,935	1,009	1,122
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	10.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.3	-30.9	-3.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

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