Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 64

24 Jun

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index27,3061714,86150-16,574491,71335
EUR732,97964144,64974-192,7232548,07456
GBP226,5055346,608100-59,003012,39582
JPY238,55671-107,6563118,27293-10,61632
CHF36,12822-4,851425,23654-38556
CAD184,10651-33,5432318,7586914,78556
AUD149,89844-49,6163950,98657-1,37049
NZD32,40113-2,659464,44157-1,78229
MXN224,8974699,718100-103,04003,32232
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL52,9914325,90269-23,41836-2,48424
Bitcoin15,6877839784-927053025

 

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

 

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.83.115.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.463.89.5
– Net Position:14,861-16,5741,713
– Gross Longs:20,9728354,318
– Gross Shorts:6,11117,4092,605
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.749.435.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-6.32.7

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.354.412.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.680.76.1
– Net Position:144,649-192,72348,074
– Gross Longs:229,399398,64692,826
– Gross Shorts:84,750591,36944,752
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.125.455.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.414.0-10.8

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.832.516.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.358.610.8
– Net Position:46,608-59,00312,395
– Gross Longs:101,56773,69236,837
– Gross Shorts:54,959132,69524,442
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.082.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.1-30.410.6

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.573.411.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.623.916.2
– Net Position:-107,656118,272-10,616
– Gross Longs:32,244175,20127,983
– Gross Shorts:139,90056,92938,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.693.431.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.724.0-5.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.043.133.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.528.634.8
– Net Position:-4,8515,236-385
– Gross Longs:8,32215,58512,170
– Gross Shorts:13,17310,34912,555
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.853.656.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.8-0.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.362.420.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.552.212.8
– Net Position:-33,54318,75814,785
– Gross Longs:28,187114,92538,400
– Gross Shorts:61,73096,16723,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.368.955.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-15.832.2

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.552.914.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.618.915.2
– Net Position:-49,61650,986-1,370
– Gross Longs:45,74379,30021,444
– Gross Shorts:95,35928,31422,814
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.856.949.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-4.415.4

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.557.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.743.614.1
– Net Position:-2,6594,441-1,782
– Gross Longs:10,86718,5732,794
– Gross Shorts:13,52614,1324,576
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.457.028.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.20.4-24.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.842.13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.587.92.2
– Net Position:99,718-103,0403,322
– Gross Longs:121,00594,7338,262
– Gross Shorts:21,287197,7734,940
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.032.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-15.8-20.3

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.920.210.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.164.415.3
– Net Position:25,902-23,418-2,484
– Gross Longs:36,53510,6855,625
– Gross Shorts:10,63334,1038,109
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.735.924.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.116.1-35.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.11.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.57.54.6
– Net Position:397-927530
– Gross Longs:11,9322501,259
– Gross Shorts:11,5351,177729
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.2 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.922.525.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.58.6-4.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Jun

Technical Analysis & Forecast 23.06.2023

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has broken the consolidation range upwards and completed a structure of growth to the 1.1010 level. Today the market is forming a pattern of a declining wave to 1.0925. After this level is reached, a link of growth to 1.0955 (test from below) is possible, followed by a decline to 1.0899. This is an estimated target.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has completed a wave of correction to the 1.2832 level and started to develop another wave of decline. The market formed a consolidation range around the 1.2741 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 1.2696 level. A link of growth to the 1.2741 level (test from below) is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.2646 with the prospect of trend continuation to 1.2588.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair continues to develop a wave of growth to the 143.50 level. Today the 143.42 level could be reached. A link of decline to 142.55 could form next, followed by growth to the 143.50 level. After this level is reached, a correction to the 141.66 level could start. Following the completion of the correction, a wave of growth to 144.88 is expected.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The currency pair has completed a structure of a wave of growth to the 0.8955 level. Today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. An exit upwards to the 0.8990 level is expected. Another tie of decline to 0.8966 could develop next, followed by growth to 0.9000 with the prospect of trend continuation to the 0.9040 level.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has formed a structure of a wave of decline to the 0.6691 level. Today a consolidation range above this level could develop. With an exit upwards, a correction to the 0.6757 level is possible. With an exit downwards, the trend could continue to the 0.6622 level.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues to develop a consolidation range around the 76.00 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 73.33 level. A link of growth to 78.48 is expected. A breakout of this level upwards will open the potential for trend continuation to the 80.50 level. This is a local target.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues to develop a consolidation range around the 1917.00 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 1909.90 level. A link of growth to 1917.00 (test from below) is expected, followed by a decline to the 1905.55 level. With an exit from this range downwards, the trend could continue to the 1901.00 level. With an exit upwards, a correction to 1936.66 is possible.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index continues to develop a consolidation range around the 4379.0 level. Today a decline to 4336.0 is possible. A rise to the 4379.0 level (test from below) could start next, followed by a decline to the 4300.0 level. This is a local target.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
22 Jun

GBPUSD Waits On BoE Rate Decision

By ForexTime 

The GBPUSD remains choppy on the daily timeframe but bulls linger in the vicinity. Further upside could be on the cards, especially after prices created a potential new impulse wave.

With just over an hour left until the BoE rate decision, here is watch to watch out for on the technical front:

Bulls jumped back into the scene after prices rebounded from the 1.23079 lower bottom on 25 May. Since then, prices have pushed higher, breaking through the weekly resistance level that become a support and was retested by bears. The price reached another weekly resistance level and a higher top was created on 16 June at 1.28483. Although bears tried to pull the price down and succeeded for a short while, bulls seem determined to re-test the weekly resistance level with a higher bottom forming on 21 June at 1.26912.

If the bulls accomplish this feat and manage to drive the price higher than 1.28483, three possible targets become possible from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher top at 1.28483 and dragging it to the higher bottom at 1.26912, the following targets can be established:

  • The first possible target is at 1.29454 (161.8%).

  • The second price target is likely at 1.31025 (261.8%)

  • The third and final target may reach 1.33567 (423.6%) if the price is able to break through a weekly resistance level around the 1.31927 level.

If the support level at 1.26912 is broken, this scenario is no longer valid.

As long as bulls can keep up the momentum with demand overcoming supply, the market sentiment for GBPUSD on the D1 time frame will remain bullish.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
20 Jun

Trade Of The Week: Will BoE Decision Push GBPUSD Higher?

By ForexTime 

This will be a big week for Sterling as focus falls on the latest UK CPI figures and rate decision from the Bank of England.

Sterling is the best-performing G10 currency year-to-date, gaining roughly 6% against the dollar thanks to fundamental and technical factors.

Indeed, investor appetite towards the British Pound continues to be supported by the resilience of the UK economy while hot inflation figures have fuelled expectations around the BoE keeping rates higher for longer. Regarding the technical picture, the GBPUSD is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe was prices trading at levels not seen in 14 months as of writing.

The GBPUSD has the potential to push higher this week and here are 3 reasons why:

  • BoE rate decision

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 22nd June. 

24 hours before the BoE decision, the latest UK inflation figures will be published with markets forecasting CPI to cool 8.4%, down from the April print of 8.7%. Given how this is still more than 4 times the BOE’s target inflation rate of 2%, this is likely to keep BoE hawks in the driving seat.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would be the thirteenth straight rate hike, taking the key rate to 4.75%. Given how UK inflation remains sticky along with strong wage growth, the central bank is expected to take rates close to 6% over the coming months.

  • If the BoE strikes a hawkish note and signals further rate hikes, this is likely to push the GBPUSD higher.
  • Should the BoE sound more dovish and expresses concern over the economy, this may send the GBPUSD lower as investors re-evaluate rate hike bets.

 

  • Jerome Powell’s testimony 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Although Powell is widely expected to reiterate comments from his post-Fed meeting press conference, this event still has the potential to trigger dollar volatility due to market sensitivity around rate hike expectations.

  • Dollar bulls could receive a boost if Powell sounds hawkish and offers fresh clues on Fed hike timings. A stronger dollar is seen dragging the GBPUSD lower
  • Should Powell strike a more cautious tone during Testimony, this could deflate the dollar – resulting in the GBPUSD pushing higher.

 

  • Technical forces favour bulls

The GBPUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading firmly above the 200, 100, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. Bulls are currently approaching key weekly resistance at 1.2870 where the weekly 200 SMA resides.

A solid weekly close above this level could encourage an incline towards levels not seen since early April 2022 at 1.3100. Should prices slip back below the 1.2730 level, this may trigger a decline back to 1.2640 and 1.2550, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
15 Jun

1,000,000 USD Promotion for RoboForex Partners

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The number of coupons a partner can receive per month depends on their monthly affiliate commission, ranging from 1 to 31 coupons.

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The price data is recorded using the independent resource finance.yahoo.com.

PrizePrize amount (USD)
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View more information on the conditions for obtaining coupons and conducting the draw on the RoboForex website.

The distribution of coupons has already begun! Join us and take part in the draw every month of the promotion. We wish you good luck!

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
15 Jun

Murrey Math Lines 15.06.2023 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. However, the RSI is nearing the overbought area. As a result, in these circumstances a test of 7/8 (142.18) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a decline to the support at 5/8 (139.06). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance at 7/8 (142.18). In this case, the pair might continue growing, and the quotes might reach 8/8 (143.75).

USDJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline after a rebound from 7/8 (142.18), might be a breakout of the lower border of the VoltyChannel.

USDJPY_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a downward breakout of 2/8 (1.3305) is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 0/8 (1.3183). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance at 3/8 (1.3366). In this case, the pair could correct to 4/8 (1.3427).

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the lower line of the VoltyChannel might increase the probability of a decline.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
15 Jun

EURUSD bulls in driving seat ahead of ECB

By ForexTime 

The EURUSD has turned bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices were initially in a down trend until 31 May when a last lower bottom was recorded at 1.06353. After breaking above significant resistance levels, bulls were back in the driving seat with prices advancing to the upside from there.

After rebounding from the lower bottom, prices pressed though the 15 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Momentum Oscillator provided confirmation by heading for the 100 baseline and breaking into bullish terrain a bit later.

A higher top was created when the price bounced off a weekly resistance level on 8 June at 1.07871. Bears tried to pull the price lower but they could not make any headway before bulls took over again.

On 12 June the bulls broke through the higher top and weekly resistance level and a long trade was triggered. Three possible targets were possible from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher top 1.07871 and dragging it to a higher bottom that was established on 7 June at 1.06671, the following targets were established:

  • The first potential target was at 1.08613 (161.8%) and the market reached that price on 14 June.

  • The second price target is likely at 1.09813 (261.8%)

  • The third and final target may reach 1.11754 (423.6%) if the price are able to break through a weekly resistance level around the 1.10843 level.

If the support level at 1.06671 is broken, this scenario is no longer appropriate, and any open risk must be managed accordingly.

As long as the bulls keep building momentum with demand overcoming supply, the market sentiment for EURUSD on the D1 time frame will remain bullish.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Jun

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.06.2023 (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, BRENT)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.2475 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2685. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 1.2405, which will indicate a further decline to 1.2310.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has secured above the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6695 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6955. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 0.6565, which will indicate a further decline to 0.6475.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is testing the support area. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 74.35 is expected, followed by a decline to 67.75. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 77.25, which will indicate a further rise to 81.65.

BRENT

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
11 Jun

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (3,665 contracts) with Bitcoin (582 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,342 contracts), Japanese Yen (-8,624 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-8,415 contracts), EuroFX (-7,304 contracts), Brazilian Real (-5,094 contracts), Swiss Franc (-879 contracts), British Pound (-751 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-573 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-549 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the declining sentiment of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency.

Large speculative Euro positions dropped by over -7,000 contracts this week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased by a total of -28,668 contracts over these past three weeks to bring the bullish position to a total of +158,421 contracts, a nine week low. Previously, speculator bets had risen for six straight weeks from April 11th to May 16th and pushed the overall bullish speculative level to the highest standing in the past 137-weeks, dating back to late-September of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) hit over a 12-month high in May above the 1.1000 level and speculators were sharply positioning themselves for it to go higher. This was helped out this year by the interest rate hiking schedule of European Central Bank (ECB) which was raising their rates while the US Federal Reserve was being seen as nearing the end of its own rate hiking campaign.

However, this one-way dynamic has become more cloudy with some recent data-points.

The Eurozone has fallen into a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth), inflation has started to trend downwards (although still above 6 percent) and there is an expectation there will be possibly only 2 more ECB rate hikes before a pause. Meanwhile, rates traders are expecting (at this moment) the Fed to raise the US interest rate by 25 basis points once again at the July 26th meeting.

The Euro’s market strength recently hit a roadblock at the May high and the psychological level of 1.1000. The Euro has now tumbled in four out of the past five weeks and dropped all the way down to the 1.0635 exchange by the end of May. This week, the Euro rebounded modestly and the weekly closing price was near 1.0750. If speculators continue to further shed Euro positions, it is possible we could see a short-squeeze bring the currency lower still and challenge the 1.0500 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-06-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index33,9303212,21945-15,163522,94449
EUR781,96784158,42179-203,9162245,49552
GBP242,1176312,48480-14,124241,64061
JPY245,33276-104,8174113,73691-8,91935
CHF44,08750-1,314517,04857-5,73438
CAD168,02542-38,3291938,45682-12723
AUD209,68098-56,4683267,49669-11,02826
NZD41,66539-703522,85653-2,15324
MXN235,9945081,670100-87,77706,10787
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL46,6863526,18169-25,72133-46040
Bitcoin13,0265676990-1,196042723

 

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent), Bitcoin (90 percent) and the British Pound (80 percent) led the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (32 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.2 percent)
EuroFX (79.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (82.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (80.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.6 percent)
Bitcoin (90.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.2 percent)

 

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and the Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (12 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (7 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the EuroFX (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.8 percent)
EuroFX (-4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (11.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (18.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.13.816.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.148.58.1
– Net Position:12,219-15,1632,944
– Gross Longs:24,7911,2805,698
– Gross Shorts:12,57216,4432,754
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.1 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.351.748.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-3.910.6

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.253.712.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.979.76.4
– Net Position:158,421-203,91645,495
– Gross Longs:236,060419,53295,766
– Gross Shorts:77,639623,44850,271
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.421.651.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.26.9-15.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.953.012.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.758.911.4
– Net Position:12,484-14,1241,640
– Gross Longs:65,063128,44129,200
– Gross Shorts:52,579142,56527,560
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.724.561.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.7-2.4-6.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.971.112.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.624.816.2
– Net Position:-104,817113,736-8,919
– Gross Longs:34,151174,46130,731
– Gross Shorts:138,96860,72539,650
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.391.135.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.220.1-10.2

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.347.025.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.231.038.7
– Net Position:-1,3147,048-5,734
– Gross Longs:11,57920,72611,309
– Gross Shorts:12,89313,67817,043
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.156.638.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.27.2-22.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.963.118.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.740.218.7
– Net Position:-38,32938,456-127
– Gross Longs:21,709106,00331,338
– Gross Shorts:60,03867,54731,465
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.882.322.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.1-5.14.4

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.057.19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.924.914.5
– Net Position:-56,46867,496-11,028
– Gross Longs:54,501119,77519,365
– Gross Shorts:110,96952,27930,393
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.569.225.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.810.37.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.745.58.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.438.613.6
– Net Position:-7032,856-2,153
– Gross Longs:16,10918,9543,502
– Gross Shorts:16,81216,0985,655
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.2 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.753.224.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.9-2.5-17.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.341.63.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.778.81.3
– Net Position:81,670-87,7776,107
– Gross Longs:123,44798,2619,230
– Gross Shorts:41,777186,0383,123
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.087.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.9-19.118.1

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.421.310.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.376.411.2
– Net Position:26,181-25,721-460
– Gross Longs:31,9309,9474,791
– Gross Shorts:5,74935,6685,251
– Long to Short Ratio:5.6 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.133.040.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.9-11.50.1

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.61.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:71.710.65.7
– Net Position:769-1,196427
– Gross Longs:10,1061871,172
– Gross Shorts:9,3371,383745
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.411.222.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.5-37.8-3.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
09 Jun

Week Ahead: EURUSD Braces For Fed-ECB Combo

By ForexTime 

This period of market calm could come to an abrupt end next week. A long list of high-risk events is likely to see volatility return with a vengeance and keep investors well-occupied.

A long list of high-risk events ranging from interest-rate decision at the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) to top-tier data from major economies will be in focus.

But before we discuss what asset to keep an eye on amid the expected volatility, here is a list of key economic releases and events for the coming week:

Monday, June 12

  • JPY: Japan May PPI

Tuesday, June 13

  • AUD: June Consumer confidence
  • EUR: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • OIL: OPEC monthly oil market report
  • USD: US May CPI

Wednesday, June 14

  • EUR: Eurozone industrial production
  • GBP: UK monthly GDP, industrial production
  • USD: Fed rate decision, PPI

Thursday, June 15

  • CNY: China retail sales, industrial production
  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • CAD: Canada housing starts, existing home sales
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing

Friday, June 16

  • JPY: BoJ rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI (final)
  • GBP: Bank of England inflation expectations survey
  • USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The scheduled data releases and events could translate to fresh opportunities across global financial markets. Our focus lands on the world’s most popular traded currency pair which is set to be heavily influenced by central bank decisions and economic data.

Here are 3 reasons why the EURUSD is on our radar:

  1. Super central bank combo 

A super central bank mashup featuring the Fed and ECB could inject the EURUSD with explosive levels of volatility.

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interests unchanged in June with traders currently pricing in a 28% probability of a 25bps hike, according to Fed fund futures. However, the recent hawkish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Canada (BoC) has left investors questioning the Fed’s next move. All eyes will also be on the updated dot plot, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference. If the Fed moves ahead with a hawkish hold and signals one more hike in July, this could support the dollar. Should the central bank surprise markets by raising rates, dollar bulls are likely to run rampant – rocking the FX arena.

In regards to the ECB, it is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 3.50 from 3.25%. However, given how the Eurozone has slipped into a recession coupled with the weak economic data and signs of cooling inflation, the central bank could be close to ending its rate hike cycle. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for fresh clues. Much focus will also be on the ECB’s staff economists fresh forecast for GDP and inflation, which may support the expectations around the hiking cycle coming to an end.

Whatever the outcome of both central bank decisions, expect the impacts to be reflected in the EURUSD.

  1. Top-tier economic data 

Throughout the week, investors will be dished out a generous serving of key economic reports from the United States and Europe. This will range from US CPI, Germany ZEW survey expectations, Eurozone industrial production, US retail sales, and Eurozone CPI (final) among other important economic reports. Given how these releases are likely to influence central bank expectations, we could see increased volatility in the respective currencies.

  • Should the pending US/Eurozone inflation report show signs of cooling inflation and other data releases point to slowing economic growth, this could fuel speculation around the hiking cycles coming to an end. Such a development may weaken the respective currency.
  • If US/Eurozone inflation runs hot and economic data beat market expectations, bets may jump around interest rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to the currencies.
  1. Technical forces 

It has been a choppy affair for the EURUSD over the past two weeks but bulls could be making a move.

The recent breakout and daily close above the 1.0760 resistance level could signal further upside in the week ahead. However, the journey north could be challenging for bulls given the multiple levels of resistance, especially the first barrier at 1.0811 where the 100-day SMA resides. A strong daily close above this point could signal a move towards 1.0840 and 1.0900, respectively. Should prices slip back below 1.0760, the EURUSD may test support at 1.0686 before potentially challenging 1.0635 and levels not seen since March 2023 at 1.0550.

At the time of writing Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 73% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0640 – 1.0896 range over the upcoming week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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