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Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were a bit lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (38,670 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (26,943 contracts), the British Pound (5,666 contracts), the Brazilian Real (735 contracts) and Bitcoin (694 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,317 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,923 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,375 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,304 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,674 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-944 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the strength of this week’s moves in the speculator’s positioning of the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Large speculative Euro positions jumped this week by over +38,000 contracts and reversed a recent decline for the Euro positions in seven out of the previous eight weeks. This gain in bullish bets has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bullish level of the past nine weeks at a total of +178,832 contracts.

The Euro currency’s strength has been on display over the past few months as the EURUSD exchange rate touched a one-year high this week at over the 1.1300 level. The EURUSD did close the week lower after hitting the one-year high but is now quite a ways off the 2022 low of 0.9508 that was touched in September.

The large speculative yen positions also surged this week by over +26,000 net contracts and gained for the second week in a row. The yen speculator positioning has been quite the opposite of the Euro as the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy of no interest rate increases which has prompted speculators to have large bearish positions in the yen. The speculator position on July 3rd marked the most bearish level since January of 2018 at a total of -117,920 contracts.

The yen positions in the past two weeks have improved though and this week’s gain brings the current bearish position (at -90,239 contracts) under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time since May.

The yen’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar remains historically weak and in a downtrend in our trend model. The USDJPY exchange rate rose back over the 140.00 threshold this week (US Dollar strength/Japanese Yen weakness) after dipping below that level last week.

This upcoming week will be a potentially volatile week in currencies as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will have central bank meetings and announce their respective policy outlooks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-18-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,045	37	11,067	43	-11,617	57	550	23
EUR	783,132	80	178,832	87	-229,343	13	50,511	60
GBP	265,766	77	63,729	100	-81,606	0	17,877	93
JPY	230,932	63	-90,239	16	98,195	84	-7,956	37
CHF	43,213	47	-10,211	28	5,927	55	4,284	72
CAD	146,171	23	521	55	-12,991	47	12,470	50
AUD	148,592	35	-50,401	38	51,045	57	-644	51
NZD	39,402	32	-3,626	44	938	49	2,688	82
MXN	238,006	51	94,492	97	-98,239	3	3,747	35
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	48,146	37	33,933	79	-32,196	25	-1,737	30
Bitcoin	15,455	73	-1,161	57	196	0	965	35

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (79 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (16 percent) and the Swiss Franc (28 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (87.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (96.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.0 percent)
Bitcoin (56.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.6 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (36 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (10 percent), the Japanese Yen (9 percent) and the EuroFX (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-24 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (7.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (36.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (32.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-35.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.8	19.5	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.8	47.8	8.9
– Net Position:	11,067	-11,617	550
– Gross Longs:	27,410	7,994	4,193
– Gross Shorts:	16,343	19,611	3,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.4	57.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.9	5.6	-26.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 178,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.8	51.9	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.9	81.2	5.9
– Net Position:	178,832	-229,343	50,511
– Gross Longs:	264,514	406,328	97,050
– Gross Shorts:	85,682	635,671	46,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.3	13.0	59.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.9	-8.6	8.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.9	28.7	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.9	59.4	8.2
– Net Position:	63,729	-81,606	17,877
– Gross Longs:	135,269	76,229	39,762
– Gross Shorts:	71,540	157,835	21,885
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	35.6	-37.8	31.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	73.8	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.0	31.3	15.6
– Net Position:	-90,239	98,195	-7,956
– Gross Longs:	29,776	170,491	28,148
– Gross Shorts:	120,015	72,296	36,104
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.4	83.6	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.7	-7.6	2.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	42.1	42.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.3	28.4	32.1
– Net Position:	-10,211	5,927	4,284
– Gross Longs:	6,772	18,183	18,158
– Gross Shorts:	16,983	12,256	13,874
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.6	54.8	72.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	-1.8	33.9

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.2	50.5	24.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.8	59.4	16.0
– Net Position:	521	-12,991	12,470
– Gross Longs:	33,877	73,833	35,907
– Gross Shorts:	33,356	86,824	23,437
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	47.3	50.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	36.2	-35.0	28.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	57.2	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	59.7	22.8	14.9
– Net Position:	-50,401	51,045	-644
– Gross Longs:	38,252	84,937	21,539
– Gross Shorts:	88,653	33,892	22,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.1	57.0	50.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-12.3	25.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.5	52.4	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.7	50.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-3,626	938	2,688
– Gross Longs:	13,193	20,654	5,117
– Gross Shorts:	16,819	19,716	2,429
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.8	48.7	81.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	-4.5	57.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.6	44.0	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.9	85.2	2.1
– Net Position:	94,492	-98,239	3,747
– Gross Longs:	122,811	104,617	8,638
– Gross Shorts:	28,319	202,856	4,891
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	96.8	2.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.8	-6.2	-15.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.3	14.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	5.8	81.0	12.8
– Net Position:	33,933	-32,196	-1,737
– Gross Longs:	36,730	6,793	4,429
– Gross Shorts:	2,797	38,989	6,166
– Long to Short Ratio:	13.1 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.9	25.1	30.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.0	-10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.6	4.7	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	3.4	4.5
– Net Position:	-1,161	196	965
– Gross Longs:	11,846	722	1,657
– Gross Shorts:	13,007	526	692
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.4 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	63.9	34.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.7	53.6	12.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

23 Jul

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Cocoa, 2-Year & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,729 net contracts this week with a change of 5,666 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.9 this week. The speculator position registered 76,488 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 94,492 net contracts this week with a change of -1,674 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 104,844 net contracts this week with a change of -3,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.8 this week.

The speculator position was -40,289 net contracts this week with a change of 10,444 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,119,380 net contracts this week with a change of -47,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56.1 this week. The speculator position was -237,629 net contracts this week with a change of -44,936 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,350 net contracts this week with a change of -78 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,145,489 net contracts this week with a change of -89,405 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The speculator position was -439,397 net contracts this week with a change of -6,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

21 Jul

Week Ahead: EURUSD set for another wild ride

By ForexTime

Fasten your seatbelts because global financial markets could experience heightened volatility in the week ahead!

Investors will be bombarded with a long list of high-risk events ranging from pivotal central bank meetings, top-tier data from major economies and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

But before we pinpoint what asset to watch out for amid the expected action, here are the scheduled economic data releases and events over the coming week:

Monday, July 24

JPY: Japan Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone & Germany S&P Global PMIs
GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI

Tuesday, July 25

EUR: Germany IFO business climate
USD: US Conf. Board consumer confidence
NQ100_m: Microsoft Corp earnings

Wednesday, July 26

AUD: Australia CPI
USD: FOMC rate decision, US new home sales
SPX500_m: Coca-Cola earnings

Thursday, July 27

CNH: China industrial profits
EUR: ECB rate decision
USD: US Q2 GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims
SPX500_m: McDonald’s Corp earnings

Friday, July 28

AUD: Australia retail sales
EUR: Germany CPI, Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI
USD: US June PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Indeed, the barrage of high-risk events could translate into fresh trading opportunities across financial markets. However, our attention will be directed to none other than the world’s most popular traded currency, which is set to be heavily influenced by the central bank combo and key reports.

But before we break down the factors that could see the EURUSD end July with a bang, it is worth keeping in mind that the currency seems to be under pressure on the H4 charts. After hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275, bulls seem to be running out of steam with bears greedily eyeing support at 1.1090. The events in the upcoming week could dictate whether prices rebound or sink lower.

Here are 4 reasons why you should not take your eyes off the EURUSD:

Fed meeting

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the upper band of the Fed funds to 5.5%. The question is whether this will be the hike that ends the central bank’s aggressive hiking campaign. Given the mixed US economic data over the past few weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference are likely to be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

Should the Fed signal more rate hikes down the road, this could inject dollar bulls with renewed inspiration – dragging the EURUSD lower.
If the Fed hints it’s done with raising rates, the dollar is likely to find itself under fresh selling pressure – resulting in the EURUSD pushing higher.

It is worth keeping in mind that traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25bps hike next week, with the probability of another 25 bps hike by November’s meeting only at 35%.

ECB meeting

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Cooling inflationary pressures continue to support expectations around the central bank moving closer to ending its hiking cycle. Nevertheless, President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate that the ECB is unlikely to ease anytime soon with the decision in September depending on economic data.

The euro could push higher if the ECB strikes a hawkish note and signals more rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. This may trigger a rebound in the EURUSD.
A cautious-sounding ECB that signals a pause in hikes down the line could weaken the euro, pulling the EURUSD lower.

Top-tier data dump

Throughout the trading week, investors will be dished out a platter of key economic reports from the United States and Europe which could rock the EURUSD.

On Monday, all eyes will be on key PMI reports from the Eurozone and Germany. Tuesday see’s the Germany IFO business climate figures and US Conf. Board consumer confidence data. The dollar could be injected with more volatility on Thursday due to the second quarter of US GDP figures and the initial jobless claims report. On Friday, inflation data from the largest economy in Europe will be under the spotlight. This will be complemented by the latest Eurozone economic and consumer confidence figures. To wrap up the week, much focus will be directed towards the June PCE Core Deflator which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Should the pending US/Eurozone print above markets expectations, this may support speculation around rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to respective currency.
If the incoming data from the US/Eurozone disappoint, this could reinforce speculation around the hiking cycle coming to an end – weakening the respective currency.

Technical forces

EURUSD has found itself under selling pressure after hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already at overbought levels with bears wasting no time to attack following the breakdown below 1.1200.

Despite the recent losses, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with bulls maintaining some control above 1.1032. A technical throwback could be in the process which may see prices rebound back towards 17-month highs in the week ahead. Alternatively, a solid breakdown under 1.1032 may trigger a further selloff towards 1.0950 and 1.0850, respectively.

Zooming out into the weekly charts, prices remain in a bullish weekly channel. However, strong resistance can be found around the 200-week SMA. Should 1.1050 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to retest 1.1275 and beyond. Alternatively, a weekly close under 1.1050 may open a path back toward 1.0800.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Jul

British Pound Speculator bets jump to 15-year high as GBP closes above 1.30

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (7,798 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,094 contracts), Mexican Peso (926 contracts), Japanese Yen (738 contracts) and Bitcoin (221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Swiss Franc (-4,503 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,306 contracts), EuroFX (-2,675 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,081 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-502 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-83 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator bets jump to 15-year high as GBP closes above 1.30

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the bullish strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions rose this week by almost +8,000 contracts and have now increased their bullish positions in three out of the past four weeks.

The overall gain for the past four weeks now totals +51,328 contracts. This has pushed the overall net position, which currently sits at +58,063 contracts, to the highest speculator bullish standing since November 6th of 2007, an over 15-year high.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by the Bank of England’s most recent interest rate increase in June that was by 50 basis points and brought the bank rate to 5 percent – its highest sitting in the past 15 years as well. Traders are forecasting more rate hikes out of the UK due to high inflation while other countries, like the US, are likely nearing the end of a rate-rising cycle.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been streaking higher this year and this week closed above the 1.3000 exchange rate for the first time since April of 2022. The GBPUSD currency pair had touched a low near 1.0360 as recently as September and has been on a strong uptrend since then. The GBPUSD has now risen by approximately 25 percent since that September bottom.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-11-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	28,925	6	12,011	45	-13,577	54	1,566	34
EUR	736,056	56	140,162	72	-192,462	25	52,300	62
GBP	239,125	61	58,063	100	-72,701	0	14,638	87
JPY	252,349	79	-117,182	0	129,077	99	-11,895	29
CHF	43,563	48	-7,907	34	8,165	58	-258	57
CAD	140,395	19	4,444	59	-14,026	47	9,582	44
AUD	152,495	42	-45,084	43	54,035	59	-8,951	31
NZD	34,947	20	-1,251	50	2,619	53	-1,368	34
MXN	239,738	51	96,166	98	-99,493	2	3,327	32
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	49,363	38	33,198	78	-31,193	26	-2,005	28
Bitcoin	16,302	80	-1,855	45	804	0	1,051	37

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (98 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), EuroFX (72 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (43 percent) and the Bitcoin (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.8 percent)
EuroFX (72.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (94.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (55.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.3 percent)
Bitcoin (44.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.7 percent)

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (32 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the Brazilian Real (2 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.1 percent)
EuroFX (-9.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (27.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (49.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-51.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.7	8.8	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	55.7	9.5
– Net Position:	12,011	-13,577	1,566
– Gross Longs:	20,741	2,536	4,316
– Gross Shorts:	8,730	16,113	2,750
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	54.2	33.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	4.3	-21.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 140,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	54.8	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.4	81.0	5.9
– Net Position:	140,162	-192,462	52,300
– Gross Longs:	224,351	403,460	95,768
– Gross Shorts:	84,189	595,922	43,468
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.4	25.4	62.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.9	7.3	6.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 58,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.7	30.6	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	61.0	10.5
– Net Position:	58,063	-72,701	14,638
– Gross Longs:	111,667	73,150	39,825
– Gross Shorts:	53,604	145,851	25,187
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.4	-33.9	24.8

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -117,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	75.4	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.3	24.2	16.3
– Net Position:	-117,182	129,077	-11,895
– Gross Longs:	29,838	190,189	29,288
– Gross Shorts:	147,020	61,112	41,183
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	98.6	29.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.5	11.0	-3.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.0	47.3	35.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	28.6	36.0
– Net Position:	-7,907	8,165	-258
– Gross Longs:	7,417	20,604	15,411
– Gross Shorts:	15,324	12,439	15,669
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	33.7	58.5	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	10.9	2.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 4,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.0	49.1	23.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	59.1	16.6
– Net Position:	4,444	-14,026	9,582
– Gross Longs:	35,072	68,935	32,865
– Gross Shorts:	30,628	82,961	23,283
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	46.6	44.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-36.1	41.5

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -45,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.6	57.4	10.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	58.2	21.9	16.6
– Net Position:	-45,084	54,035	-8,951
– Gross Longs:	43,661	87,458	16,392
– Gross Shorts:	88,745	33,423	25,343
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.0	59.2	30.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	-3.8	14.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.0	53.4	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.6	45.9	11.5
– Net Position:	-1,251	2,619	-1,368
– Gross Longs:	13,297	18,666	2,656
– Gross Shorts:	14,548	16,047	4,024
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	52.7	33.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	3.4	-3.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 96,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.3	44.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.2	86.3	2.1
– Net Position:	96,166	-99,493	3,327
– Gross Longs:	122,996	107,491	8,414
– Gross Shorts:	26,830	206,984	5,087
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.8	2.1	32.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-9.8	-10.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	74.0	16.3	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	79.5	12.6
– Net Position:	33,198	-31,193	-2,005
– Gross Longs:	36,541	8,070	4,213
– Gross Shorts:	3,343	39,263	6,218
– Long to Short Ratio:	10.9 to 1	0.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.0	26.3	28.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.4	5.0	-47.7

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	8.2	9.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.0	3.3	3.0
– Net Position:	-1,855	804	1,051
– Gross Longs:	12,322	1,343	1,535
– Gross Shorts:	14,177	539	484
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.5 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	87.4	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.6	55.0	14.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Jul

COT Speculator Extremes: British Pound, Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 11th.

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 32.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 58,063 net contracts this week with a change of 7,798 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.1 this week. The speculator position registered 96,166 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 926 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 96.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 108,501 net contracts this week with a change of 3,058 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 91.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 70,115 net contracts this week with a change of -2,469 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 84.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.0 this week.

The speculator position was -5,651 net contracts this week with a change of 95 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,272 net contracts this week with a change of -382 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,056,084 net contracts this week with a change of -26,270 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,071,700 net contracts this week with a change of -13,274 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.5 this week. The speculator position was -117,182 net contracts this week with a change of 738 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Finally, the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.7 this week. The speculator position was -192,693 net contracts this week with a change of 13,807 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

14 Jul

Week Ahead: Can GBPUSD Bulls Maintain Hunger For Gains?

By ForexTime

The explosive price action seen this week continues to highlight how global financial markets remain sensitive to key inflation data!

Currencies, commodities, and stocks were injected with fresh volatility mid-week after the softer-than-expected US inflation figures calmed fears around Fed rate hikes.

The US Dollar Index cut through the 100.70 support like a hot knife through butter and is currently on pace for its worst seek since November 2022.
Gold prices are trading back around the $1960 level, currently up roughly 1.6% this week.
Global stocks are set for their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, with the S&P500 hitting fresh 2023 highs.

Markets may be pumped with more volatility this afternoon due to earnings announcement by Wall Street banks.

And even before things settle down across the board, investors are already bracing for fresh action in the week ahead thanks to top-tier economic reports and key risk events…

Monday, July 17

CNH: China key policy rate decision, Q2 GDP, retail sales, industrial production
USD: US empire manufacturing

Tuesday, July 18

AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia July meeting minutes
CAD: CPI, housing starts
USD: US retail sales, industrial production
SPX500_m: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings

Wednesday, July 19

EUR: June CPI (final)
GBP: UK June CPI
USD: US housing starts
SPX500_m: Goldman Sachs, IBM earnings
NQ100_m: Tesla, Netflix earnings

Thursday, July 20

CNH: China loan prime rates
AUD: Australia unemployment
EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
USD: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Friday, July 21

CAD: Canada retail sales
JPY: Japan June CPI
GBP: UK Retail Sales, Gfk Consumer Confidence

Our focus falls on the GBPUSD which has resembled a speeding train gaining noticeable momentum on the technical charts!

After rallying to a fresh 2023 high at 1.3140 and rising more than 2% this week (as of writing), sterling bulls are certainly in the driving seat. Indeed, the GBPUSD has drawn strength from upbeat UK GDP data and a broadly weaker dollar.

The key question is whether bulls can maintain the appetite for further gains in the week ahead.

Here are 3 reasons why you should keep an eye on the GBPUSD:

UK June Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On Wednesday, July 19th – the latest UK inflation report will be published.

All eyes will be on the incoming UK inflation report which could influence BoE hike expectations. This will be topped off with the latest retail sales figures and Gfk Consumer confidence report on Friday which could provide fresh insight into the health of the UK economy.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to cool 8.2% from 8.7% in the prior month.
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 7.1% from 7.1% seen in May.
CPI month-on-month (June 2023 vs May 2023) to cool 0.4% from 0.7% in the prior month.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 73% probability of a 50-basis point BoE hike in August as the central bank continues to battle sticky inflation.

Signs of still stubborn inflation may reinforce expectations around the BoE hiking rates by 50 basis points at its August meeting. This development could propel the GBPUSD beyond 1.3200.
Should June’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflationary pressures, this could fuel hopes around the BoE opting for a smaller 25 basis point hike in August. Speculation around the BoE slowing down the pace of rate increases may weaken the pound, dragging the GBPUSD back towards 1.3000.

Dollar volatility

Fed hike expectations are likely to influence the US dollar in the week ahead. On top of this, investors will be dished out key US data which may provide fresh insight into the health of the largest economy in the world.

The US empire manufacturing will be under the spotlight on Monday, to key US retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday. Much attention will also be directed towards the US initial jobless claims and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Thursday.

If US economic data disappoints, this could weaken the dollar as expectations mount over the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes down the road. Dollar weakness is seen pushing the GBPUSD higher.

A strong set of economic releases may bolster the case for US rates remaining higher for longer. This is likely to strengthen the dollar, dragging the GBPUSD lower.

Technical forces – bulls

The GBPUSD remains heavily bullish on the daily and weekly timeframe.

There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows in the weekly timeframe with prices slicing through the 200-week Simple Moving Average. Given how the currency pair remains in a healthy weekly bullish channel, the path of least resistance points north. A strong weekly close above 1.3200 may encourage an incline towards the next major resistance at 1.3700. While bulls are clearly in a position of power, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought levels. A technical throwback could be on the table before bull’s attack once again.

Zooming into the daily charts, the GBPUSD remains in a strong uptrend. After hitting a fresh 2023 high at 1.3140, the question is whether bulls have the appetite for more gains? A strong breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.3200 and 1.3250. However, should prices slip back below 1.3000, this may trigger a further decline towards 1.2840.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

12 Jul

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX Majors & Indices

By ForexTime

USD Index smashes into 101.50
EURUSD challenges fresh resistance
GBPUSD bulls switch into higher gear
SPX500_m approaches key resistance
NQ100_m ready to breakout?

The dollar extended losses while stocks nudged higher on Wednesday ahead of key US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

Attention will also be directed towards the pending Bank of Canada rate decision, speeches from numerous Fed officials, and big risk events including earning announcements by US banks on Friday.

In the meantime, here are some technical setups to keep an eye on this week:

USD Index smashes into 101.50

The dollar remains under pressure on the daily timeframe with prices trading marginally below 101.50 as of writing. Sustained weakness below this level may open a path toward 101.10 and 100.72, respectively. Should 101.50 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back toward 102.35 could be on the cards.

EURUSD tests fresh resistance

A weaker dollar has propelled the EURUSD to levels not seen since early May around 1.1032. Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts with a breakout above 1.1032 opening a path towards 1.1090. Should bulls run out of steam, a decline back towards 10950 and 1.0900 may be on the table.

GBPUSD bulls back in town

The GBPUSD hit a fresh 2023 high this morning. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid breakout and daily close above 1.3000 could open the doors towards 1.3110. Should 1.3000 prove to be strong resistance, prices may slip back towards 1.2840.

NZDUSD trapped within a range

It was a choppy affair for the NZDUSD after New Zealand’s central bank left interest rates unchanged for the first time in almost two years. The currency pair spiked towards 0.6240 before giving back gains. Prices remain trapped within a range with support around 0.6100 and resistance at 0.6240. A breakout above 0.6240 may see an incline towards 0.6310. Should prices slip back under 0.6100, we could see 0.6000.

USDJPY tumbles towards 138.80

A weaker dollar has sent the USDJPY tumbling toward the 138.80 support level. A breakdown below this point could see a further selloff towards 138.00 and the 200-day SMA around 137.10. Should prices rebound from 138.80, we could see 141.00 and higher.

SPX500_m approaches resistance

Prices remain bullish on the daily charts. A strong breakout above 4463 could inspire an incline towards 4500. Should bulls lack the strength to conquer 4463, prices may descend back within the range with 4332 acting as the next key level of interest.

NQ100_m breakout pending?

The NQ100_m could be gearing for a breakout on the daily charts if prices push beyond 15300. A solid close above this point may encourage an incline towards 15700. Any signs of weakness in the uptrend could see prices retest 14965 and 14670, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jul

EUR/USD Rises on Stats

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The market’s most traded currency pair rose to the level of 1.0960 by Monday.

EUR/USD strengthened due to the weakness of the US dollar. Investors were disappointed by the flow of statistical data from the US labour market for June.

To be specific, the number of non-farm payrolls increased by only 209 thousand against the May value of 306 thousand. In private business, the number of jobs increased by 149 thousand, while in the public sector, it rose by 60 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Average wages increased by 4.4% y/y against the forecast of 4.2%.

Market participants were counting on strong employment data to help them understand the future actions of the US Federal Reserve.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD secured above the upper boundary of a descending correction channel after a failed test of the support level. The price is above the moving averages, which indicates growing pressure from the buyers. The correction is expected to end at 1.0935, after which the quotes might rise to the nearest resistance level at 1.1015. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line has secured above the zero level, and the histogram has been growing for 14 periods. A negative scenario for buyers would be a break of the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel with the price consolidating under the level of 1.0835.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is correcting within a bullish flag pattern. The target of this move is 1.0955. The completion of the pattern is expected with a breakout of the upper boundary of the descending channel and the price securing above 1.0965. The moving averages also indicate the presence of an uptrend, with a crossover that occurred on 10 July 2023. Technically, the MACD does not confirm the scenario of EURUSD growth. Moreover, there is a risk of forming a bearish divergence after a steep increase to 1.0955. With such a scenario, there is potential for a decline by the divergence. However, if the bearish divergence is broken again, such behaviour should be interpreted as a weakness on the sellers’ part.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jul

Trade Of The Week: USDCAD Knocks On Major Support

By ForexTime

CAD weakens against most G10 currencies month-to-date.
Big week for the USDCAD thanks to BoC rate decision and US inflation data.
Trader’s pricing in a 67% probability of a BoC hike on Wednesday.
US Inflation data could influence USDCAD this week.
USDCAD trapped within wide range but breakout could be pending.

The Canadian Dollar has weakened against most G10 currencies month-to-date despite ending June as one of the top performers versus the US Dollar.

Despite the choppy price action, the USDCAD could see heightened volatility this week as investors evaluate last Friday’s mixed US jobs report along with Canada’s strong jobs data. On top of this, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and highly anticipated US inflation data on Wednesday could place the currency pair on a rollercoaster ride.

Taking a quick peek at the technical outlook, prices are back within a range on the weekly timeframe following the breach below 1.3250 back in early June.

The USDCAD could be gearing up for a significant move and here are 3 reasons why:

Bank of Canada rate decision

On Wednesday, July 12th – the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision.

Last Friday’s robust jobs data from Canada boosted speculation around the BoC hiking interest rates in July. The country added 60,000 jobs in June which smashed expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% – the highest since February 2022. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a 25-basis point hike on Wednesday with this fully priced in by September’s meeting.

Should the BoC move ahead with a rate hike in June or signal a rate hike in September, this could be the catalyst to trigger another major breakdown below 1.3250 on the USDCAD.
An unexpected scenario where the central bank adopts a dovish stance towards rates could weaken the CAD, triggering a rebound on the USDCAD.

US June Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On Wednesday, July 12th – the latest US inflation report will be published.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data which could influence Fed hike expectations. Headline inflation is expected to slow 3.1% in June 2023 vs June 2022, a noticeable decline from May’s 4% year-on-year. However, Core CPI year-on-year which strips out volatile energy and food prices is expected to cool 5% from the 5.3% seen in May which remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

Ultimately, signs of still stubborn inflation may boost the dollar as expectations mount around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer. A strong dollar may push the USDCAD back towards 1.3600 and higher.
Should June’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflation across the board, this could fuel hopes around the Fed pausing rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. If the dollar weakens on this prospect, the USDCAD may sink lower.

Technical forces: Breakdown?

It has been the same old story for the USDCAD on the monthly timeframe.

Prices remain trapped within multiple layers of support and resistance. Major monthly support can be found at 1.3250 and monthly resistance at 1.3850. A breakout/down beyond these levels may open a path higher towards 1.4100 or lower towards 1.2970.

Focusing on the daily timeframe, prices are bouncing within a narrower range with resistance at 1.3650 and support at 1.3270. Despite the recent rebound, bears still seem to be in some position of power with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. A selloff below 1.3270 could open the doors towards 1.3130 and 1.2970, respectively. Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA, bulls could challenge 1.3650 and 1.3850, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (7,374 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,661 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,542 contracts) and Bitcoin (18 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,158 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-5,050 contracts), Mexican Peso (-1,109 contracts), the British Pound (-1,729 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,191 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-651 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the new bullish positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks.

Speculators have now added +42,856 net contracts to the overall position in just the last four weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at +4,527 contracts) to the first bullish level of the past 41 weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2022.

The Canadian dollar’s futures price (versus the US dollar) has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent 2023-low in March of 2022 near 0.7223. The CAD front month futures price climbed back over the 200-day moving average in June and closed this week at the 0.7541 level. Helping the CAD go higher at the end of this week was the better than expected Canadian jobs report which could help propel the currency higher and continue on its current uptrend.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-03-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	26,619	7	14,317	49	-16,580	49	2,263	41
EUR	725,927	56	142,837	73	-189,459	26	46,622	53
GBP	221,021	50	50,265	99	-63,664	2	13,399	84
JPY	265,066	89	-117,920	0	126,010	97	-8,090	37
CHF	40,639	38	-3,404	46	7,565	57	-4,161	43
CAD	156,284	31	4,527	59	-18,815	43	14,288	55
AUD	153,744	44	-44,582	44	51,374	57	-6,792	36
NZD	34,057	18	830	56	1,511	50	-2,341	22
MXN	238,269	51	95,240	97	-99,399	2	4,159	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	66,547	62	31,104	75	-27,440	31	-3,664	15
Bitcoin	17,008	85	-2,076	41	1,132	0	944	34

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (99 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The Brazilian Real (75 percent), EuroFX (73 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (49.9 percent)
EuroFX (73.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (98.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (40.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), EuroFX (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-16.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (29.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-28.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (49.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-54.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	76.1	2.2	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.4	64.5	8.3
– Net Position:	14,317	-16,580	2,263
– Gross Longs:	20,267	584	4,462
– Gross Shorts:	5,950	17,164	2,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.8	49.4	41.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-4.3	-4.0

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 142,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	55.3	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.8	81.4	6.1
– Net Position:	142,837	-189,459	46,622
– Gross Longs:	221,272	401,256	90,921
– Gross Shorts:	78,435	590,715	44,299
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.4	26.5	53.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.9	11.7	-6.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.6	33.7	16.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.9	62.5	10.5
– Net Position:	50,265	-63,664	13,399
– Gross Longs:	96,461	74,446	36,707
– Gross Shorts:	46,196	138,110	23,308
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	98.7	1.9	84.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.2	-28.7	16.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -117,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.7	71.7	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.2	24.2	14.5
– Net Position:	-117,920	126,010	-8,090
– Gross Longs:	41,713	190,157	30,449
– Gross Shorts:	159,633	64,147	38,539
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.1	16.4	7.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	45.9	27.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	27.2	37.8
– Net Position:	-3,404	7,565	-4,161
– Gross Longs:	10,634	18,633	11,193
– Gross Shorts:	14,038	11,068	15,354
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.6	57.5	43.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.6	9.7	-11.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.3	47.0	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.4	59.0	13.7
– Net Position:	4,527	-18,815	14,288
– Gross Longs:	44,178	73,437	35,761
– Gross Shorts:	39,651	92,252	21,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	43.3	54.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	49.5	-46.2	33.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.6	53.4	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.6	20.0	16.3
– Net Position:	-44,582	51,374	-6,792
– Gross Longs:	50,170	82,076	18,331
– Gross Shorts:	94,752	30,702	25,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.5	57.2	35.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.2	-6.5	10.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	53.4	7.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.2	48.9	13.9
– Net Position:	830	1,511	-2,341
– Gross Longs:	13,170	18,176	2,390
– Gross Shorts:	12,340	16,665	4,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.8	50.1	22.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	4.9	-38.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	44.1	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.0	85.9	1.9
– Net Position:	95,240	-99,399	4,159
– Gross Longs:	123,919	105,172	8,685
– Gross Shorts:	28,679	204,571	4,526
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.3	2.2	37.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.2	-10.0	-9.7

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.1	35.3	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	76.5	13.1
– Net Position:	31,104	-27,440	-3,664
– Gross Longs:	38,012	23,461	5,070
– Gross Shorts:	6,908	50,901	8,734
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.3	30.9	14.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.0	11.4	-60.8

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.6	10.0	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	87.8	3.3	3.7
– Net Position:	-2,076	1,132	944
– Gross Longs:	12,854	1,698	1,568
– Gross Shorts:	14,930	566	624
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.7	100.0	34.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-51.8	91.6	13.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

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Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 65

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

Cocoa Futures

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

Live Cattle

VIX

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Palladium

5-Year Bond

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

Investors will be bombarded with a long list of high-risk events ranging from pivotal central bank meetings, top-tier data from major economies and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

Indeed, the barrage of high-risk events could translate into fresh trading opportunities across financial markets. However, our attention will be directed to none other than the world’s most popular traded currency, which is set to be heavily influenced by the central bank combo and key reports.

Fed meeting

ECB meeting

Top-tier data dump

Technical forces

EURUSD has found itself under selling pressure after hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already at overbought levels with bears wasting no time to attack following the breakdown below 1.1200.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

British Pound Speculator bets jump to 15-year high as GBP closes above 1.30

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Mexican Peso

Live Cattle