Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 63

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX Majors & Indices

By ForexTime 

  • USD Index smashes into 101.50
  • EURUSD challenges fresh resistance
  • GBPUSD bulls switch into higher gear
  • SPX500_m approaches key resistance
  • NQ100_m ready to breakout?

The dollar extended losses while stocks nudged higher on Wednesday ahead of key US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.

Attention will also be directed towards the pending Bank of Canada rate decision, speeches from numerous Fed officials, and big risk events including earning announcements by US banks on Friday.

In the meantime, here are some technical setups to keep an eye on this week:

USD Index smashes into 101.50

The dollar remains under pressure on the daily timeframe with prices trading marginally below 101.50 as of writing. Sustained weakness below this level may open a path toward 101.10 and 100.72, respectively. Should 101.50 prove to be reliable support, a rebound back toward 102.35 could be on the cards.

EURUSD tests fresh resistance

A weaker dollar has propelled the EURUSD to levels not seen since early May around 1.1032. Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts with a breakout above 1.1032 opening a path towards 1.1090. Should bulls run out of steam, a decline back towards 10950 and 1.0900 may be on the table.

GBPUSD bulls back in town

The GBPUSD hit a fresh 2023 high this morning. Prices remain firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. A solid breakout and daily close above 1.3000 could open the doors towards 1.3110. Should 1.3000 prove to be strong resistance, prices may slip back towards 1.2840.

NZDUSD trapped within a range

It was a choppy affair for the NZDUSD after New Zealand’s central bank left interest rates unchanged for the first time in almost two years. The currency pair spiked towards 0.6240 before giving back gains. Prices remain trapped within a range with support around 0.6100 and resistance at 0.6240. A breakout above 0.6240 may see an incline towards 0.6310. Should prices slip back under 0.6100, we could see 0.6000.

USDJPY tumbles towards 138.80

A weaker dollar has sent the USDJPY tumbling toward the 138.80 support level. A breakdown below this point could see a further selloff towards 138.00 and the 200-day SMA around 137.10. Should prices rebound from 138.80, we could see 141.00 and higher.

SPX500_m approaches resistance

Prices remain bullish on the daily charts. A strong breakout above 4463 could inspire an incline towards 4500. Should bulls lack the strength to conquer 4463, prices may descend back within the range with 4332 acting as the next key level of interest.

NQ100_m breakout pending?

The NQ100_m could be gearing for a breakout on the daily charts if prices push beyond 15300. A solid close above this point may encourage an incline towards 15700. Any signs of weakness in the uptrend could see prices retest 14965 and 14670, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EUR/USD Rises on Stats

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The market’s most traded currency pair rose to the level of 1.0960 by Monday.

EUR/USD strengthened due to the weakness of the US dollar. Investors were disappointed by the flow of statistical data from the US labour market for June.

To be specific, the number of non-farm payrolls increased by only 209 thousand against the May value of 306 thousand. In private business, the number of jobs increased by 149 thousand, while in the public sector, it rose by 60 thousand. The unemployment rate remained at 3.6%. Average wages increased by 4.4% y/y against the forecast of 4.2%.

Market participants were counting on strong employment data to help them understand the future actions of the US Federal Reserve.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD:

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD secured above the upper boundary of a descending correction channel after a failed test of the support level. The price is above the moving averages, which indicates growing pressure from the buyers. The correction is expected to end at 1.0935, after which the quotes might rise to the nearest resistance level at 1.1015. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line has secured above the zero level, and the histogram has been growing for 14 periods. A negative scenario for buyers would be a break of the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel with the price consolidating under the level of 1.0835.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is correcting within a bullish flag pattern. The target of this move is 1.0955. The completion of the pattern is expected with a breakout of the upper boundary of the descending channel and the price securing above 1.0965. The moving averages also indicate the presence of an uptrend, with a crossover that occurred on 10 July 2023. Technically, the MACD does not confirm the scenario of EURUSD growth. Moreover, there is a risk of forming a bearish divergence after a steep increase to 1.0955. With such a scenario, there is potential for a decline by the divergence. However, if the bearish divergence is broken again, such behaviour should be interpreted as a weakness on the sellers’ part.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Trade Of The Week: USDCAD Knocks On Major Support

By ForexTime 

  • CAD weakens against most G10 currencies month-to-date.
  • Big week for the USDCAD thanks to BoC rate decision and US inflation data.
  • Trader’s pricing in a 67% probability of a BoC hike on Wednesday.
  • US Inflation data could influence USDCAD this week.
  • USDCAD trapped within wide range but breakout could be pending.

The Canadian Dollar has weakened against most G10 currencies month-to-date despite ending June as one of the top performers versus the US Dollar.

Despite the choppy price action, the USDCAD could see heightened volatility this week as investors evaluate last Friday’s mixed US jobs report along with Canada’s strong jobs data. On top of this, the Bank of Canada’s rate decision and highly anticipated US inflation data on Wednesday could place the currency pair on a rollercoaster ride.

Taking a quick peek at the technical outlook, prices are back within a range on the weekly timeframe following the breach below 1.3250 back in early June.

The USDCAD could be gearing up for a significant move and here are 3 reasons why:

  1. Bank of Canada rate decision

On Wednesday, July 12th – the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision.

Last Friday’s robust jobs data from Canada boosted speculation around the BoC hiking interest rates in July. The country added 60,000 jobs in June which smashed expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.4% – the highest since February 2022. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% probability of a 25-basis point hike on Wednesday with this fully priced in by September’s meeting.

  • Should the BoC move ahead with a rate hike in June or signal a rate hike in September, this could be the catalyst to trigger another major breakdown below 1.3250 on the USDCAD.
  • An unexpected scenario where the central bank adopts a dovish stance towards rates could weaken the CAD, triggering a rebound on the USDCAD.
  1. US June Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On Wednesday, July 12th – the latest US inflation report will be published.

All eyes will be on the incoming US inflation data which could influence Fed hike expectations. Headline inflation is expected to slow 3.1% in June 2023 vs June 2022, a noticeable decline from May’s 4% year-on-year. However, Core CPI year-on-year which strips out volatile energy and food prices is expected to cool 5% from the 5.3% seen in May which remains above the Fed’s 2% target.

  • Ultimately, signs of still stubborn inflation may boost the dollar as expectations mount around the Fed keeping interest rates higher for longer. A strong dollar may push the USDCAD back towards 1.3600 and higher.
  • Should June’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflation across the board, this could fuel hopes around the Fed pausing rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. If the dollar weakens on this prospect, the USDCAD may sink lower.
  1. Technical forces: Breakdown?

It has been the same old story for the USDCAD on the monthly timeframe.

Prices remain trapped within multiple layers of support and resistance. Major monthly support can be found at 1.3250 and monthly resistance at 1.3850. A breakout/down beyond these levels may open a path higher towards 1.4100 or lower towards 1.2970.

Focusing on the daily timeframe, prices are bouncing within a narrower range with resistance at 1.3650 and support at 1.3270. Despite the recent rebound, bears still seem to be in some position of power with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. A selloff below 1.3270 could open the doors towards 1.3130 and 1.2970, respectively. Should prices push back above the 200-day SMA, bulls could challenge 1.3650 and 1.3850, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (7,374 contracts) with the New Zealand Dollar (1,661 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,542 contracts) and Bitcoin (18 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,158 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-5,050 contracts), Mexican Peso (-1,109 contracts), the British Pound (-1,729 contracts), the EuroFX (-2,191 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-651 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (-491 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar bets into bullish level for 1st time in 41 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the new bullish positioning in the Canadian dollar. Large speculative Canadian dollar positions rose this week for the fourth consecutive week and for the fifth time in the past six weeks.

Speculators have now added +42,856 net contracts to the overall position in just the last four weeks. This positive sentiment has pushed the CAD speculator net position (currently at +4,527 contracts) to the first bullish level of the past 41 weeks, dating back to September 9th of 2022.

The Canadian dollar’s futures price (versus the US dollar) has been in an uptrend since hitting a recent 2023-low in March of 2022 near 0.7223. The CAD front month futures price climbed back over the 200-day moving average in June and closed this week at the 0.7541 level. Helping the CAD go higher at the end of this week was the better than expected Canadian jobs report which could help propel the currency higher and continue on its current uptrend.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index26,619714,31749-16,580492,26341
EUR725,92756142,83773-189,4592646,62253
GBP221,0215050,26599-63,664213,39984
JPY265,06689-117,9200126,01097-8,09037
CHF40,63938-3,404467,56557-4,16143
CAD156,284314,52759-18,8154314,28855
AUD153,74444-44,5824451,37457-6,79236
NZD34,05718830561,51150-2,34122
MXN238,2695195,24097-99,39924,15938
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL66,5476231,10475-27,44031-3,66415
Bitcoin17,00885-2,076411,132094434

 


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (99 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week and are in Extreme-Bullish levels. The Brazilian Real (75 percent), EuroFX (73 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (48.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (49.9 percent)
EuroFX (73.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (98.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (51.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (48.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (55.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (76.0 percent)
Bitcoin (40.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.4 percent)

 

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (49 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-22 percent), EuroFX (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-7 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (9.1 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-16.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (29.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-28.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-6.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (49.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (37.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (3.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (13.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.6 percent)
Bitcoin (-51.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-54.2 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 14,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.12.216.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.464.58.3
– Net Position:14,317-16,5802,263
– Gross Longs:20,2675844,462
– Gross Shorts:5,95017,1642,199
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.0 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.849.441.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.1-4.3-4.0

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 142,837 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,191 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 145,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.555.312.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.881.46.1
– Net Position:142,837-189,45946,622
– Gross Longs:221,272401,25690,921
– Gross Shorts:78,435590,71544,299
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.426.553.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.911.7-6.1

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 50,265 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.633.716.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.962.510.5
– Net Position:50,265-63,66413,399
– Gross Longs:96,46174,44636,707
– Gross Shorts:46,196138,11023,308
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.71.984.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.2-28.716.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -117,920 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -112,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.771.711.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.224.214.5
– Net Position:-117,920126,010-8,090
– Gross Longs:41,713190,15730,449
– Gross Shorts:159,63364,14738,539
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.137.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.116.47.4

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -3,404 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,542 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,946 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.245.927.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.527.237.8
– Net Position:-3,4047,565-4,161
– Gross Longs:10,63418,63311,193
– Gross Shorts:14,03811,06815,354
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.657.543.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.69.7-11.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 4,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,374 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,847 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.347.022.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.459.013.7
– Net Position:4,527-18,81514,288
– Gross Longs:44,17873,43735,761
– Gross Shorts:39,65192,25221,473
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.843.354.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.5-46.233.1

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,424 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.653.411.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.620.016.3
– Net Position:-44,58251,374-6,792
– Gross Longs:50,17082,07618,331
– Gross Shorts:94,75230,70225,123
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.557.235.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.2-6.510.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,661 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.753.47.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.248.913.9
– Net Position:8301,511-2,341
– Gross Longs:13,17018,1762,390
– Gross Shorts:12,34016,6654,731
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.850.122.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.24.9-38.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 95,240 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,349 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:52.044.13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.085.91.9
– Net Position:95,240-99,3994,159
– Gross Longs:123,919105,1728,685
– Gross Shorts:28,679204,5714,526
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.32.237.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.2-10.0-9.7

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 31,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,595 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.135.37.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.476.513.1
– Net Position:31,104-27,440-3,664
– Gross Longs:38,01223,4615,070
– Gross Shorts:6,90850,9018,734
– Long to Short Ratio:5.5 to 10.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.330.914.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.011.4-60.8

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.610.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.83.33.7
– Net Position:-2,0761,132944
– Gross Longs:12,8541,6981,568
– Gross Shorts:14,930566624
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.0 to 12.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.7100.034.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-51.891.613.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Technical Outlook: FX & Commodity Mashup

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD remains a choppy affair
  • GBPUSD waits for fresh spark
  • Time for USDJPY to push higher?
  • USDCAD in breakout mode
  • Gold approaches resistance

The market mood was mixed on Tuesday as investors turned cautious ahead of another busy week for global financial markets. Despite US markets currently closed due to the Independence Day holiday, volatility could still be the name of the game thanks to top-tier economic reports and risk events.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed minutes tomorrow and the US NFP report released on Friday:

Dollar on standby

The dollar remains on standby with prices trading around 103.00 as of writing. Should bulls jump back into the driver’s seat, prices could challenge 103.50, 103.80, and 104.00. Alternatively, a decline below 103.00 may see bears attack 102.35 and 102.00, respectively.

EURUSD choppy affair…

The EURUSD remains within a messy range on the daily charts with support at 1.0850 and resistance at 1.1010. A solid breakdown below 1.0850 could see prices challenge 1.0760. Should prices break above 1.1010, an incline toward 1.0900 could be on the cards.

GBPUSD waits for fresh catalyst

Sterling remains trapped within a range with support at 1.2600 and resistance at 1.2730. A strong breakout above 1.2730 could open the doors toward 1.2850. Should prices sink below 1.2600, bears could challenge 1.2550 and 1.2420.

USDJPY remains bullish

Despite consolidating over the past few days, the USDJPY remains in a healthy uptrend on the daily charts. Further upside could be expected if a solid daily close above 145.50 is achieved. If bulls run out of steam, this could lead to a decline back towards 142.30.

AUDUSD capped below 0.6680?

The AUDUSD could sink lower if prices fail to push above the 0.6690 resistance. Earlier this morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged at 4.1% which caused prices to retreat. However, bulls seem to be lingering in the vicinity with the Aussie back around the 0.6690 level where the 100 and 200-day SMA resides. Sustained weakness below this point may trigger a selloff back towards 0.6630 and 0.6570. Should prices breakout and secure a daily close above this point, bulls may propel prices toward 0.6760.

USDCAD in breakout mode

The USDCAD be gearing up for a breakout this week as prices trade between support at 1.3140 and resistance at 1.3280. A breakout above 1.3280 could signal an incline toward 1.3400. Should prices slip back below 1.3140, the next key level of interest can be found at 1.3000.

WTI Crude rangebound

It feels like the same old story for WTI Crude with prices trading within a range on the daily charts. Support can be found at $67.00 and resistance at $74.40. Oil prices may react to the 8th OPEC International Seminar featuring OPEC+ ministers on Wednesday. A move below $67.00 could see prices hit $64.50. Alternatively, a breakout above $74.40 could open a path toward $76.80.

Gold approaches resistance

Gold prices have pushed higher, challenging the $1932 resistance level. A breakout above this point may see $1959. Should $1932 prove to be reliable resistance, prices may decline back toward $1900.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Week Ahead: Can AUDUSD stay above 0.660?

By ForexTime 

  • AUDUSD set to post 1.8% climb in June – first monthly gain since January 2023
  • Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts trading range of 0.6524 – 0.6732 for AUDUSD in first week of July
  • AUDUSD’s presence above/below 0.660 next week could be dictated by China PMIs, RBA decision, FOMC minutes, and US jobs report.

AUDUSD is recovering slightly in recent sessions, despite having it tough so far in 2023.

The “Aussie” has a year-to-date decline of 2.8%, no thanks to the resilient US dollar as well as China’s faltering economic recovery.

Whether or not the “Aussie” can extend its recent recovery into the new month may well depend on the fundamental catalysts contained within the global economic calendar for the coming week:

 

Monday, July 3

  • AUD: Australia June inflation; manufacturing PMI (final)
  • CNH: China June Caixin manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone June manufacturing PMI (final); Germany May trade balance
  • GBP: UK June manufacturing PMI (final)
  • USD: US June ISM manufacturing

Tuesday, July 4

  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision
  • EUR: Eurozone April retail sales; Germany April factory orders
  • US markets closed for Independence Day

Wednesday, July 5

  • AUD: Australia June services PMI (final)
  • CNH: China Caixin services and composite PMIs
  • EUR: Eurozone May PPI, services PMI (final)
  • GBP: UK June services PMI (final)
  • USD: FOMC minutes; speech by New York Fed President John Williams

Thursday, July 6

  • AUD: Australia May external trade
  • EUR: Eurozone May retail sales; Germany May factory orders
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Friday, July 7

  • CNH: China June forex reserves
  • EUR: Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde; Germany May industrial production
  • GBP: Speech by BOE policymaker Catherine Mann
  • USD: US June nonfarm payrolls
  • CAD: Canada June unemployment rate

 

In determining whether AUDUSD can keep its head above the crucial support 0.660 level next week …

Traders and investors will be casting their sights across 3 countries, namely China, the US, and Australia (of course).

Here are some key events to pay close attention to:

 

1) July 3rd: China June Caixin manufacturing PMI

Note that the Australian economy is very much reliant on China, being Australia’s largest trading partner.

Hence, when the Chinese Yuan strengthens, the Australian Dollar tends to follow suit.

(AUDUSD has a strong inverse correlation with USDCNY of -0.72 over a 5-day rolling period in the past 10 years)
  • AUDUSD may move higher should China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI come in above the 50 mark, which shows expanding conditions in China’s manufacturing sector.
  • AUDUSD may move lower should China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI come in below the 50 mark, which would show contracting conditions among factories in the world’s second largest economy.

 

 

2) July 4th: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision

The futures market predicts only a 1-in-3 chance that Australia’s central bank will hike by further 25-basis points.

On the other hand, the 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg are split (13-14) on whether we will see a July RBA hike.

The economists in the “no July hike” camp would point to the latest Australian consumer price index (CPI – which measures headline inflation) of 5.6% for May.

That 5.6% number was below market forecasts for 6.1% and also lower than April’s 6.8% reading.

Should this coming Monday’s (July 3rd) inflation readings by the Melbourne Institute also show easing inflationary pressures, that may bolster the case for another RBA pause at next week’s meeting.

However, note that the RBA surprised markets with unexpected hikes at its past two policy meetings.

For the upcoming RBA decision:

  • AUDUSD may move higher if the RBA raises its Cash Rate Target to 4.35%
  • AUDUSD may move lower if the RBA leaves rates unchanged at 4.10%

 

 

3) July 5th: FOMC June meeting minutes

Recall how the Fed tried to warn markets at that mid-June FOMC meeting about two more incoming rate hikes this year.

Such warnings by Fed Chair Jerome Powell had little initial impact, as markets were willing to challenge the Fed’s forecasts.

However, the economic data since then suggests that the world’s largest economy remains resilient, likely paving the way for the Fed to raise its benchmark rates even higher so as to quell still-stubborn inflation.

  • AUDUSD may move higher if the June FOMC meeting minutes reveals a more dovish policy stance held by Fed officials who are adamant that US interest rates have moved high enough and are not willing to risk further economic damage.
  • AUDUSD may move lower if the June FOMC meeting minutes reveals a more hawkish policy stance held by Fed officials who are adamant about moving US interest rates even higher.

 

4) July 7th: US jobs report for June

Markets predict that 200,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in June.

If so, that 200k figure would be the lowest headline nonfarm payrolls (NFP) print since December 2019.

Yet, seasoned market watchers are only too aware that the NFP number has been notoriously hard to predict in recent months, frustrating many top economists.

After all, every single headline NFP number for each month of 2023 so far has exceeded market forecasts. Recall the recent blockbuster NFP print for May (released on June 2nd) which came in at a whopping 339k, far exceeding Wall Street’s forecast of 195k.

The June unemployment rate (also released on Friday, July 7th) is even expected to tick lower to 3.6% compared to May’s 3.7% jobless rate.

Still, with recession alarm bells ringing loudly in certain parts of global financial markets, investors are always looking further down the line and already asking when we will see the first negative NFP print (job losses) and a significantly higher unemployment rate.

  • AUDUSD may move higher on a weaker US Dollar if the June NFP report produces a lower-than-200k headline number, along with a higher unemployment rate.
    A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may allow the Fed to start thinking about pausing its rate hikes.
  • AUDUSD may move lower on a stronger US Dollar if the June NFP report, yet again, delivers another positive shocker that far exceeds the forecasted 200k print, while the unemployment rate moves lower.
    Another blockbuster US jobs report should force the Fed to hike twice more before 2023 ends.

 

Key levels

At the time of writing, Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 36.7% chance that AUDUSD might break below the 0.66 over the next one-week period.

The model also forecasts a trading range of 0.6524 – 0.6732 for AUDUSD through the first week of July.

Here are some key levels to watch within that forecasted trading range:

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

  • 0.6600: psychologically-important level
  • 0.65641 – 0.65738: March, May cycle lows
  • 0.6524: lower end of Bloomberg model forecasted range; key battleground for bulls and bears in late May/early June.

 

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

  • 0.66627: June 23rd intraday low
  • 100-day SMA
  • 0.67255: 23.6% Fibonacci level from AUDUSD’s 1H23 peak-to-trough

 

 


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

A BRICS currency is unlikely to dislodge dollar any time soon – but it signifies growing challenge to established economic order

By Mihaela Papa, Tufts University 

Could a new currency be set to challenge the dominance of the dollar? Perhaps, but that may not be the point.

In August 2023, South Africa will host the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – a group of nations known by the acronym BRICS. Among the items on the agenda is the creation of a new joint BRICS currency.

As a scholar who has studied the BRICS countries for over a decade, I can certainly see why talk of a BRICS currency is, well, gaining currency. The BRICS summit comes as countries across the world are confronting a changing geopolitical landscape that is challenging the traditional dominance of the West. And while the BRICS countries have been seeking to reduce their reliance on the dollar for over a decade, Western sanctions on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have accelerated the process.

Meanwhile, rising interest rates and the recent debt-ceiling crisis in the U.S. have raised concerns among other countries about their dollar-denominated debt and the demise of the dollar should the world’s leading economy ever default.

That all said, a new BRICS currency faces major hurdles before becoming a reality. But what currency discussions do show is that the BRICS countries are seeking to discover and develop new ideas about how to shake up international affairs and effectively coordinate policies around these ideas.

De-dollarization momentum?

With 88% of international transactions conducted in U.S. dollars, and the dollar accounting for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, the dollar’s global dominance is indisputable. Yet de-dollarization – or reducing an economy’s reliance on the U.S. dollar for international trade and finance – has been accelerating following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The BRICS countries have been pursuing a wide range of initiatives to decrease their dependence on the dollar. Over the past year, Russia, China and Brazil have turned to greater use of non-dollar currencies in their cross-border transactions. Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are actively exploring dollar alternatives. And central banks have sought to shift more of their currency reserves away from the dollar and into gold.

All the BRICS nations have been critical of the dollar’s dominance for different reasons. Russian officials have been championing de-dollarization to ease the pain from sanctions. Because of sanctions, Russian banks have been unable to use SWIFT, the global messaging system that enables bank transactions. And the West froze Russia’s US$330 billion in reserves last year.

Meanwhile, the 2022 election in Brazil reinstated Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as president. Lula is a longtime proponent of BRICS who previously sought to reduce Brazil’s dependence on and vulnerability to the dollar. He has reenergized the group’s commitment to de-dollarization and spoken about creating a new Euro-like currency.

The Chinese government has also clearly laid out its concerns with the dollar’s dominance, labeling it “the main source of instability and uncertainty in the world economy.” Beijing directly blamed the Fed’s interest rate hike for causing turmoil in the international financial market and substantial depreciation of other currencies. Together with other BRICS countries, China has also criticized the use of sanctions as a geopolitical weapon.

The appeal of de-dollarization and a possible BRICS currency would be to mitigate such problems. Experts in the U.S. are deeply divided on its prospects. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen believes the dollar will remain dominant as most countries have no alternative. Yet a former White House economist sees a way that a BRICS currency could end dollar dominance.

Currency ambitions

Although talk of a BRICS currency has gained momentum, there is limited information on various models under consideration.

The most ambitious path would be something akin to the Euro, the single-currency adopted by 11 member states of the European Union in 1999. But negotiating a single currency would be difficult given the economic power asymmetries and complex political dynamics within BRICS. And for a new currency to work, BRICS would need to agree to an exchange rate mechanism, have efficient payment systems and a well-regulated, stable and liquid financial market. To achieve a global currency status, BRICS would need a strong track record of joint currency management to convince others that the new currency is reliable.

A BRICS version of the Euro is unlikely for now; none of the countries involved show any desire to discontinue its local currency. Rather, the goal appears to be to create an efficient integrated payment system for cross-border transactions as the first step and then introduce a new currency.

Building blocks for this already exist. In 2010, the BRICS Interbank Cooperation Mechanism was launched to facilitate cross-border payments between BRICS banks in local currencies. BRICS nations have been developing “BRICS pay” – a payment system for transactions among the BRICS without having to convert local currency into dollars. And there has been talk of a BRICS cryptocurrency and of strategically aligning the development of Central Bank Digital Currencies to promote currency interoperability and economic integration. Since many countries expressed an interest in joining BRICS, the group is likely to scale its de-dollarization agenda.

From BRICS vision to reality

To be sure, some of the group’s most ambitious past initiatives to set up major BRICS projects to parallel non-Western infrastructures have failed. Big ideas like developing a BRICS credit rating agency and creating a BRICS undersea cable never materialized.

And de-dollarization efforts have been struggling both at the multilateral and bilateral level. In 2014, when the BRICS countries launched the New Development Bank, its founding agreement outlined that its operations may provide financing in the local currency of the country in which the operation takes place. Yet, in 2023, the bank remains heavily dependent on the dollar for its survival. Local currency financing represents around 22% of the bank’s portfolio, although its new president hopes to increase that to 30% by 2026.

Similar challenges exist in bilateral de-dollarization pursuits. Russia and India have sought to develop a mechanism for trading in local currencies, which would enable Indian importers to pay for Russia’s cheap oil and coal in rupees. However, talks were suspended after Moscow cooled on the idea of rupee accumulation.

Despite the barriers to de-dollarization, the BRICS group’s determination to act should not be dismissed – the group has been known for defying expectations in the past.

Despite many differences among the five countries, the bloc managed to develop joint policies and survive major crises such as the 2020-21 China-India border clashes and the war in Ukraine. BRICS has deepened its cooperation, invested in new financial institutions and has been continuously broadening the range of policy issues it addresses.

It now has a huge network of interlinked mechanisms that connect governmental officials, businesses, academics, think tanks and other stakeholders across countries. Even if there is no movement on the joint currency front, there are multiple issues on which BRICS finance ministers as well as central bankers regularly coordinate – and the potential for developing new financial collaborations is particularly strong.

No doubt, talk of a new BRICS currency in itself is an important indicator of the desire of many nations to diversify away from the dollar. But I believe focusing on the BRICS currency risks missing the forest for the trees. A new global economic order will not emerge out of a new BRICS currency or de-dollarization happening overnight. But it can potentially emerge out of BRICS’ commitment to coordinating their policies and innovating – something this currency initiative represents.The Conversation

About the Author:

Mihaela Papa, Adjunct Assistant Professor of Sustainable Development and Global Governance, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

 

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 27.06.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern on H4 near the support level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be the resistance level at 1.1000. However, the price could correct to 1.0855 and continue the uptrend after the test of the support level.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 144.40. However, the quotes might pull back to 143.00 and continue the uptrend after a correction to the support level.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The pullback target might be 0.8600. Upon testing this level and rebounding from it, the price will get a chance to continue the downtrend. However, the quotes might still drop to 0.8525 without testing the resistance level.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Navigating EUR/USD Stability, Speculation, and Technical Analysis

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.0910 as it enters the new week of June, shrugging off some of the tension it previously faced.

In the recent past, the market was consumed with speculation and conjecture about the next moves of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch monitor, there is a high likelihood of a credit cost increase at the July meeting.

Monetary policymakers at the Fed have been hinting at similar possibilities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while addressing politicians last week, expressed that the idea of raising rates again seemed reasonable.

The primary objective for the Fed remains the same—to bring inflation back to 2%. Presently, inflation figures are considerably higher, necessitating an ongoing battle.

From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD has followed the projected upward wave to 1.1000 on the H4 timeframe. Subsequently, the market experienced a downward impulse, reaching 1.0844. A correction to 1.0930 could develop today, and after its completion, a new downward wave to 1.0740, possibly extending to 1.0660, may ensue. This scenario gains support from the MACD indicator, with its signal line currently at highs and descending sharply towards zero.

On the H1 timeframe, a consolidation range has formed around 1.0940. Upon breaking out upwards, the market exhibited an extended structure, reaching 1.1000. It then underwent a downward impulse to 1.0840. A correction to 1.0940 has already occurred today, testing from below. Following its completion, a fresh downward wave to 1.0840 could commence. This technical scenario finds confirmation from the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is above 50 and could potentially rise to 80 today.

Overall, EUR/USD has remained resilient near the 1.0910 level, exhibiting stability despite previous uncertainties. The upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates continue to be a focal point for market participants, with analysts closely monitoring the potential impact on the currency pair. From a technical standpoint, various indicators and patterns suggest the possibility of both corrective rallies and downward movements, indicating the importance of monitoring key levels and trend developments.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Trade of the Week: EURUSD to suffer another inflation scare?

By ForexTime

  • Bloomberg FX model: 74% chance EURUSD will trade within 1.0784 – 1.1010 this week.
  • Traders to react to Powell vs. Lagarde comments due June 27-28
  • EURUSD typically sees 38% larger 1-day move on European CPI release days

The world’s most-traded FX pair has managed to shrug off the threat to the Putin regime over the weekend.

While keeping a wary eye over potential developments in Russia, it’s back to the usual grind of watching the incoming inflation data, and interpreting what the CPI numbers could mean for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next moves on interest rates.

 

Here’s are two main factors to look out for this week:

 

1) Speeches by Fed and ECB chiefs

Firstly, note that traders and investors tend to boost the currency of the central bank that appears to have more rate hikes in store (hawkish).

That’s what markets will be thinking about, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are set to offer public comments between Tuesday, June 27th and Wednesday, June 28th.

 

What markets currently think the Fed will do next?

Markets are only pricing in just one more 25-basis point hike out of the US Federal Reserve for the rest of 2023.

Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been trying to convince markets since the FOMC meeting earlier this month that the Fed may have 2 more rate hikes this year.

Except that, markets just aren’t buying it.

 

What markets currently think the European Central Bank (ECB) will do?

Markets expect the ECB to trigger two more 25-bps hikes (50-bps in total) before the year is over.

Hence, no surprise that EURUSD has climbed by about 2% so far this month.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Should markets finally take heed of Powell’s hawkish messaging, that could lead to a stronger US dollar that drags EURUSD lower.
  • Alternatively, should Powell’s hawkish intentions be once again pooh-poohed by markets, that may push EURUSD even higher.

 

 

2) European inflation data

Thursday, June 29th: Germany June CPI (consumer price index, which is used to measure headline inflation)

Markets are expecting inflation to tick back higher in the Europe’s largest economy:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.2% higher; inflation back to positive growth after May’s 0.1% month-on-month contraction)
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 6.3% higher.
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s 6.1% year-on-year number.

 

Friday, June 30th: Eurozone June CPI

Here are the market’s forecasts:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.3% higher; inflation back to growth after May’s 0.0% month-on-month reading.
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 5.6% higher; a slower annual pace compared to May’s 6.1% year-on-year advance
  • Core CPI (excluding more volatile items such as food and fuel) to be 5.5% higher year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022).
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s core CPI year-on-year number of 5.3%.

Overall, signs of still stubborn inflation may ramp up market bets for more ECB rate hikes.

The prospects of more rate hikes in an economy tend to strengthen its currency.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Higher-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a stronger Euro versus the US dollar.
  • Alternatively, lower-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a weaker EURUSD.

 

 

EURUSD tends to post larger-than-average moves on CPI data

So far in 2023, EURUSD has seen an average intraday move of 80 pips between any given day’s highest price and that same day’s lowest.

However, on the days that Germany or Europe releases their respective CPI data, EURUSD tends to see an average intraday move of 110 pips, which is about 38% (or 30 pips) more than the daily average so far this year.

In other words, expect greater EURUSD volatility when Germany and the Eurozone release their respective CPI prints later this week.

 

Note also that EURUSD has posted larger intraday moves in 3 out of the past four of Germany’s CPI releases, compared to EURUSD’s 1-day move on the day of the Eurozone’s CPI release.

After all, Germany is the largest economy in Europe. Hence, the former’s CPI print is seen as a forerunner to the bloc’s headline CPI print.

 

 

Key levels

Potential Support

  • 14-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 1.08444: intraday low on June 23rd
  • 100-day SMA around 1.080 psychologically-important level

 

Potential Resistance

  • 1.09426: 50% Fibonacci level from EURUSD’s Jan 2021 – Sept 2022 drop, peak-to-trough
  • 1.09708: intraday high on June 16th
  • 1.10123: recent cycle high

 

Bloomberg’s FX model now points to a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0784 – 1.1010 range in the next one week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com