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Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 13.06.2023 (GBPUSD, AUDUSD, BRENT)

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is pushing off the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.2475 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2685. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 1.2405, which will indicate a further decline to 1.2310.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has secured above the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 0.6695 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.6955. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 0.6565, which will indicate a further decline to 0.6475.

BRENT

Brent is testing the support area. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Tenkan-Sen line at 74.35 is expected, followed by a decline to 67.75. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper border of the bearish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 77.25, which will indicate a further rise to 81.65.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (3,665 contracts) with Bitcoin (582 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-12,342 contracts), Japanese Yen (-8,624 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-8,415 contracts), EuroFX (-7,304 contracts), Brazilian Real (-5,094 contracts), Swiss Franc (-879 contracts), British Pound (-751 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-573 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-549 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculators cut their bullish bets for 3rd straight week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the declining sentiment of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro Currency.

Large speculative Euro positions dropped by over -7,000 contracts this week and fell for a third consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now decreased by a total of -28,668 contracts over these past three weeks to bring the bullish position to a total of +158,421 contracts, a nine week low. Previously, speculator bets had risen for six straight weeks from April 11th to May 16th and pushed the overall bullish speculative level to the highest standing in the past 137-weeks, dating back to late-September of 2020.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) hit over a 12-month high in May above the 1.1000 level and speculators were sharply positioning themselves for it to go higher. This was helped out this year by the interest rate hiking schedule of European Central Bank (ECB) which was raising their rates while the US Federal Reserve was being seen as nearing the end of its own rate hiking campaign.

However, this one-way dynamic has become more cloudy with some recent data-points.

The Eurozone has fallen into a technical recession (2 quarters of negative growth), inflation has started to trend downwards (although still above 6 percent) and there is an expectation there will be possibly only 2 more ECB rate hikes before a pause. Meanwhile, rates traders are expecting (at this moment) the Fed to raise the US interest rate by 25 basis points once again at the July 26th meeting.

The Euro’s market strength recently hit a roadblock at the May high and the psychological level of 1.1000. The Euro has now tumbled in four out of the past five weeks and dropped all the way down to the 1.0635 exchange by the end of May. This week, the Euro rebounded modestly and the weekly closing price was near 1.0750. If speculators continue to further shed Euro positions, it is possible we could see a short-squeeze bring the currency lower still and challenge the 1.0500 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jun-06-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	33,930	32	12,219	45	-15,163	52	2,944	49
EUR	781,967	84	158,421	79	-203,916	22	45,495	52
GBP	242,117	63	12,484	80	-14,124	24	1,640	61
JPY	245,332	76	-104,817	4	113,736	91	-8,919	35
CHF	44,087	50	-1,314	51	7,048	57	-5,734	38
CAD	168,025	42	-38,329	19	38,456	82	-127	23
AUD	209,680	98	-56,468	32	67,496	69	-11,028	26
NZD	41,665	39	-703	52	2,856	53	-2,153	24
MXN	235,994	50	81,670	100	-87,777	0	6,107	87
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	46,686	35	26,181	69	-25,721	33	-460	40
Bitcoin	13,026	56	769	90	-1,196	0	427	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent), Bitcoin (90 percent) and the British Pound (80 percent) led the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (79 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (4 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (32 percent) and the US Dollar Index (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (46.2 percent)
EuroFX (79.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (82.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (79.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (80.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (4.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (51.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (53.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (18.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (32.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (69.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.6 percent)
Bitcoin (90.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (80.2 percent)

Mexican Peso & Bitcoin top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Mexican Peso (19 percent) and the Bitcoin (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (12 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (7 percent) and the British Pound (6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent) and the EuroFX (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.8 percent)
EuroFX (-4.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (5.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (10.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-22.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-24.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-15.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (15.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (11.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (18.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -549 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.1	3.8	16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	48.5	8.1
– Net Position:	12,219	-15,163	2,944
– Gross Longs:	24,791	1,280	5,698
– Gross Shorts:	12,572	16,443	2,754
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.3	51.7	48.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.5	-3.9	10.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 158,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 165,725 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	53.7	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.9	79.7	6.4
– Net Position:	158,421	-203,916	45,495
– Gross Longs:	236,060	419,532	95,766
– Gross Shorts:	77,639	623,448	50,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.4	21.6	51.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.2	6.9	-15.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,484 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	53.0	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.7	58.9	11.4
– Net Position:	12,484	-14,124	1,640
– Gross Longs:	65,063	128,441	29,200
– Gross Shorts:	52,579	142,565	27,560
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	79.7	24.5	61.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.7	-2.4	-6.0

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.9	71.1	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.6	24.8	16.2
– Net Position:	-104,817	113,736	-8,919
– Gross Longs:	34,151	174,461	30,731
– Gross Shorts:	138,968	60,725	39,650
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	91.1	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	20.1	-10.2

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	47.0	25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.2	31.0	38.7
– Net Position:	-1,314	7,048	-5,734
– Gross Longs:	11,579	20,726	11,309
– Gross Shorts:	12,893	13,678	17,043
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.1	56.6	38.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	7.2	-22.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -38,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,415 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,914 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.9	63.1	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.7	40.2	18.7
– Net Position:	-38,329	38,456	-127
– Gross Longs:	21,709	106,003	31,338
– Gross Shorts:	60,038	67,547	31,465
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	82.3	22.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.1	-5.1	4.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -56,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,126 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	57.1	9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.9	24.9	14.5
– Net Position:	-56,468	67,496	-11,028
– Gross Longs:	54,501	119,775	19,365
– Gross Shorts:	110,969	52,279	30,393
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.5	69.2	25.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.8	10.3	7.9

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -703 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -130 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.7	45.5	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.4	38.6	13.6
– Net Position:	-703	2,856	-2,153
– Gross Longs:	16,109	18,954	3,502
– Gross Shorts:	16,812	16,098	5,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.7	53.2	24.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	-2.5	-17.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,670 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,005 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.3	41.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.7	78.8	1.3
– Net Position:	81,670	-87,777	6,107
– Gross Longs:	123,447	98,261	9,230
– Gross Shorts:	41,777	186,038	3,123
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	87.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.9	-19.1	18.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,275 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	68.4	21.3	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	76.4	11.2
– Net Position:	26,181	-25,721	-460
– Gross Longs:	31,930	9,947	4,791
– Gross Shorts:	5,749	35,668	5,251
– Long to Short Ratio:	5.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	69.1	33.0	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.9	-11.5	0.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 187 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.6 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.6	1.4	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	71.7	10.6	5.7
– Net Position:	769	-1,196	427
– Gross Longs:	10,106	187	1,172
– Gross Shorts:	9,337	1,383	745
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.4	11.2	22.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.5	-37.8	-3.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Jun

Week Ahead: EURUSD Braces For Fed-ECB Combo

By ForexTime

This period of market calm could come to an abrupt end next week. A long list of high-risk events is likely to see volatility return with a vengeance and keep investors well-occupied.

A long list of high-risk events ranging from interest-rate decision at the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BoJ) to top-tier data from major economies will be in focus.

But before we discuss what asset to keep an eye on amid the expected volatility, here is a list of key economic releases and events for the coming week:

Monday, June 12

JPY: Japan May PPI

Tuesday, June 13

AUD: June Consumer confidence
EUR: Germany CPI, ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
OIL: OPEC monthly oil market report
USD: US May CPI

Wednesday, June 14

EUR: Eurozone industrial production
GBP: UK monthly GDP, industrial production
USD: Fed rate decision, PPI

Thursday, June 15

CNY: China retail sales, industrial production
AUD: Australia unemployment
CAD: Canada housing starts, existing home sales
EUR: ECB rate decision
USD: US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing

Friday, June 16

JPY: BoJ rate decision
EUR: Eurozone CPI (final)
GBP: Bank of England inflation expectations survey
USD: University of Michigan consumer sentiment

The scheduled data releases and events could translate to fresh opportunities across global financial markets. Our focus lands on the world’s most popular traded currency pair which is set to be heavily influenced by central bank decisions and economic data.

Here are 3 reasons why the EURUSD is on our radar:

Super central bank combo

A super central bank mashup featuring the Fed and ECB could inject the EURUSD with explosive levels of volatility.

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to leave interests unchanged in June with traders currently pricing in a 28% probability of a 25bps hike, according to Fed fund futures. However, the recent hawkish surprise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Bank of Canada (BoC) has left investors questioning the Fed’s next move. All eyes will also be on the updated dot plot, as well as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference. If the Fed moves ahead with a hawkish hold and signals one more hike in July, this could support the dollar. Should the central bank surprise markets by raising rates, dollar bulls are likely to run rampant – rocking the FX arena.

In regards to the ECB, it is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the deposit rate to 3.50 from 3.25%. However, given how the Eurozone has slipped into a recession coupled with the weak economic data and signs of cooling inflation, the central bank could be close to ending its rate hike cycle. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will be closely scrutinized for fresh clues. Much focus will also be on the ECB’s staff economists fresh forecast for GDP and inflation, which may support the expectations around the hiking cycle coming to an end.

Whatever the outcome of both central bank decisions, expect the impacts to be reflected in the EURUSD.

Top-tier economic data

Throughout the week, investors will be dished out a generous serving of key economic reports from the United States and Europe. This will range from US CPI, Germany ZEW survey expectations, Eurozone industrial production, US retail sales, and Eurozone CPI (final) among other important economic reports. Given how these releases are likely to influence central bank expectations, we could see increased volatility in the respective currencies.

Should the pending US/Eurozone inflation report show signs of cooling inflation and other data releases point to slowing economic growth, this could fuel speculation around the hiking cycles coming to an end. Such a development may weaken the respective currency.
If US/Eurozone inflation runs hot and economic data beat market expectations, bets may jump around interest rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to the currencies.

Technical forces

It has been a choppy affair for the EURUSD over the past two weeks but bulls could be making a move.

The recent breakout and daily close above the 1.0760 resistance level could signal further upside in the week ahead. However, the journey north could be challenging for bulls given the multiple levels of resistance, especially the first barrier at 1.0811 where the 100-day SMA resides. A strong daily close above this point could signal a move towards 1.0840 and 1.0900, respectively. Should prices slip back below 1.0760, the EURUSD may test support at 1.0686 before potentially challenging 1.0635 and levels not seen since March 2023 at 1.0550.

At the time of writing Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 73% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0640 – 1.0896 range over the upcoming week.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Jun

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.06.2023 (GBPUSD, USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is testing the signal lines of the indicator. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.2410 is expected, followed by a rise to 1.2620. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 1.2375, which will mean a further decline to 1.2285. Meanwhile, the increase could be confirmed by a breakout of the upper border of the bearish channel, securing above 1.2535.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is correcting by a Triangle pattern. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.9080 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.9205. A signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower border of the Cloud, securing under 0.9020, which will mean a further decline to 0.8925. Meanwhile, the increase could be confirmed by a breakout of the upper border of the Triangle pattern, securing above 0.9120.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is pushing off the support level. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1955 is expected, followed by a decline to 1895. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper border of the Triangle pattern. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper border of the Cloud, securing above 1970, which will mean further growth to 2005. Meanwhile, the decline could be confirmed by a breakout of the lower border of the Triangle pattern, securing under 1935.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Jun

RoboForex Wins “Best Mobile Trading App” Title for its R MobileTrader at Global Forex Awards

RoboForex, a brokerage company, is delighted to announce its victory in the prestigious category of “Best Mobile Trading App” at the Global Forex Awards 2022 – B2B. This marks the fourth consecutive year that RoboForex’s application, R MobileTrader, is recognised for its exceptional features, enabling users to conveniently access a wide range of investment instruments and an intuitive interface focused on valuable information.

R MobileTrader continues to receive high praise from its users, maintaining its top position for the third year running. With just a few taps, clients can remotely open a brokerage account, deposit funds, and begin trading over 12,000 instruments. The RoboForex team dedicates substantial efforts to enhancing the application’s functionality, stability, and security for the best possible trading experience for users.

The Global Forex Awards annually honour top companies in recognition of their proven achievements in providing outstanding financial market services. The awards celebrate the best companies and brands in the market, both regionally and globally.

The winners are distinguished brokers who employ innovative technologies, advanced research tools, comprehensive educational programmes, and cutting-edge business solutions; thereby ensuring their clients receive world-class services.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jun

EUR/USD Recovers Amid U.S. Debt and Employment Shifts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The most heavily traded currency pair, EUR/USD, experienced a rebound to 1.0720 following a significant downturn.

The concerns about U.S. public debt subsided after the proposal to increase the debt limit was endorsed first by the House of Representatives, followed by the Senate and the White House. This resolution was widely anticipated and successfully prevented a halt to federal government operations.

U.S. employment statistics for May presented a mixed picture. Non-farm payrolls (NFP) rose more than expected, surging by 339 thousand, which was welcome news. However, the average wage increase was modest, ticking up by a mere 0.3% month on month. This modest wage growth served to limit market dynamics.

Currency markets are now focusing their attention on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for next week. Investors are eager to know the Fed’s stance: Will it pause its interest rate hike, or will the cycle continue? The market consensus on this matter remains divided.

Technical Analysis:

On a 4-hour chart (H4), EUR/USD corrected to 1.0762. The market is currently forming a downward impulse to 1.0666. Once this level is reached, an uptick towards 1.0735 may occur. Essentially, a consolidation range could form above 1.0666. An upward breakout from this range could trigger a correction towards 1.0830. Alternatively, a downward breakout could continue the bearish trend down to 1.0596. This technical scenario is supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. Its signal line is below zero and poised for an upward move to test from below, followed by a potential drop to new lows.

On the 1-hour chart (H1), EUR/USD is forming a downward wave structure towards 1.0666. Upon reaching this level, a corrective move towards 1.0700 may occur, followed by a drop to 1.0616. From this point, the bearish trend could persist down to 1.0573. This technical scenario is validated by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is currently near the 50 level and could break lower, potentially declining to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Jun

AUD climbs after surprise RBA hike

By ForexTime

The Australian Dollar is the best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar so far today.

AUDUSD soared by as much as 0.92% and breached the 0.6680 level, before paring some of its gains at the time of writing.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered an unexpected 25-basis point hike, raising its Cash Rate Target to 4.10%.

The RBA has now surprised markets for a second straight meeting.

In its policy statement, the Australian central bank highlighted that, while it felt inflation was past its peak, it would require some time for it to return to the target range of 2 to 3%.

The hike gave the bank greater confidence that inflation will return to target within a reasonable timeframe. But policymakers added that some further tightening may be required.

As we know, traders and investors tend to bid up the currency of the country that’s expected to have higher interest rates.

Hence, the aussie jumped on the surprise RBA decision and is back trading in its range that it had held from March to late May.

After falling to a low below 0.65 and last seen in November 2022, the major is heading towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6692.

A break above its 200-day SMA may embolden Aussie bulls to pursue greater heights.

AUD also taking advantage of softer USD

The US dollar didn’t like yesterday’s softer ISM Services Index which indicated that the US economy is at a standstill after falling to 50.3 from 51.9.

After the headline held just above the 50 boom/bust line, with the exception of December 2022, this was the worst reading since May 2020.

The USD index (which measures the US dollar’s performance against a basket of its G10 peers such as the EUR, JPY, and GBP) has held on to losses from yesterday (Monday, June 5th).

The greenback could remain in a sideways pattern until next week’s pivotal US inflation data release as well as the crucial Fed rate decision.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Jun

Trade Of The Week: Time For USDCAD To Breakout?

By ForexTime

The Canadian Dollar is the second-best performer against the US dollar so far in June, gaining 1% thanks to higher oil prices and increased expectations around a BoC rate hike.

This could be another volatile week for the USDCAD as investors digest last Friday’s sizzling US jobs report and Saudi Arabia’s latest pledge to make an extra 1 million barrel-a-day supply cut in July. Taking a brief look at the technical picture, prices remain trapped within a wide range on the weekly charts with support found at 1.3250 and resistance at 1.3850.

A major breakout could be on the horizon for the USDCAD and here are 4 reasons why:

Bank of Canada rate decision

On Wednesday, June 7th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision.

The recent better than expected economic data including GDP and employment figures have supported expectations around the BoC raising rates at least one final time before 2023 concludes. Traders are currently pricing in a 41% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike on Wednesday with this jumping to 90% by July’s meeting. Should the BoC surprise markets with a rate hike in June, CAD bulls could be injected with renewed confidence.

It may be worth keeping a close eye on the unemployment rate published on Friday, June 9th which could provide fresh insight into the health of the Canadian labour force. A solid report could fuel speculation around the BoC hiking rates further – ultimately dragging the USDCAD lower as the Canadian Dollar appreciates.

Volatile oil prices

Oil prices jumped almost 5% early on Monday morning before giving back some gains after Saudi Arabia said it will cut oil production by an extra 1 million barrels per day in July.

This development has certainly added more spice to oil markets with expectations around tightening supplies potentially fuelling upside gains. Should oil bulls remain in the driving seat, this will be welcomed by the CAD which is a commodity-linked currency. However, if ongoing concerns around weak global demand cap upside gains and result in renewed weakness for oil, the CAD may be one of the first casualties.

Dollar performance

The Dollar seems to have regained its mojo after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected US jobs report supported expectations around the Fed leaving rates higher for longer.

Non-farm payrolls soared 339,000 in May, surpassing April’s 294,000 and smashing the median estimates of 195,000. However, the unemployment rate leaped to 3.7% while annual growth cooled, slowing to 4.3%. Given how we have entered the blackout period for Fed speakers, the barrage of key US data releases on Monday could dictate the dollar’s near-term outlook. If dollar strength is a key theme this week, this could push the USDCAD higher. Alternatively, a weaker dollar may drag the currency pair lower.

Technical forces

The USDCAD has found itself trapped within a very wide range over the past few months with the first layers of monthly support at 1.3250 and resistance at 1.3850.

Zooming into the daily timeframe prices are bouncing within a narrower range with resistance at 1.3650 and support at 1.3300. Bears seem to be in control after the heavy selloff that took prices below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. A solid breakdown and daily close below 1.3400 could encourage a decline toward 1.3300. Should prices push back above 1.3500, we could see 1.3560 and 1.3650, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Jun

Currency Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 30th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (18,612 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,955 contracts), British Pound (1,646 contracts), the US Dollar Index (1,528 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (233 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (468 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-15,533 contracts) with the EuroFX (-8,011 contracts), the Mexican Peso (1,062 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,417 contracts) and Bitcoin (-706 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Mexican Peso bullish bets to 168-week high

Highlighting the COT currency data this week is the continued gains for the Mexican peso positioning. Large speculators raised their bullish bets for the Mexican peso this week for the fifth straight week and for the seventh time out of the past ten weeks.

Peso bets have now improved by a total of +129,731 contracts since the beginning of 2023 (a total of 22 weeks), going from a total of -56,376 contracts on January 3rd to a total of +78,005 contracts this week. This rise in the speculator sentiment has pushed the current net position to the highest level in the past 168 weeks, dating all the way back to the height of the pandemic on March 10th of 2020.

The peso has been riding the tide of record high interest rates in Mexico that had risen to 11.25 percent level at the central bank meeting in March. However, the Mexican Central Bank, in their May meeting, held their rate steady and look to continue to do so for the time being with inflation subsiding in the latest data-points.

The Mexican peso exchange rate versus the US dollar has been surging higher this year with the MXN hitting a new 7-year high in this week’s trading. Overall, the peso is higher against the dollar in 2023 by approximately 15 percent and is trading at the best levels since 2016.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-30-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	32,373	28	12,768	46	-16,260	50	3,492	55
EUR	775,142	81	165,725	82	-214,015	18	48,290	56
GBP	240,301	61	13,235	80	-15,208	24	1,973	62
JPY	243,237	75	-96,193	10	106,512	88	-10,319	32
CHF	41,354	40	-435	53	1,533	48	-1,098	54
CAD	179,871	50	-29,914	27	39,037	83	-9,123	3
AUD	204,963	94	-44,126	44	59,100	63	-14,974	16
NZD	39,507	33	-130	53	1,195	49	-1,065	37
MXN	224,395	46	78,005	100	-83,021	0	5,016	75
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	64,846	59	31,275	76	-35,269	21	3,994	76
Bitcoin	11,715	45	187	80	-624	0	437	23

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (100 percent) and the EuroFX (82 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (80 percent), Bitcoin (80 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (27 percent), the Australian Dollar (44 percent) and the US Dollar Index (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (46.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.7 percent)
EuroFX (82.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (80.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (79.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (9.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (19.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (53.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (39.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (53.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (99.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.4 percent)
Bitcoin (80.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (92.5 percent)

Brazilian Real & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (22 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (15 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (15 percent), the Bitcoin (12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (11 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-2 percent), EuroFX (1 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.4 percent)
EuroFX (0.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (10.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (12.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-24.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-14.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (11.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (15.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-1.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-10.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (15.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (22.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (25.1 percent)
Bitcoin (11.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (35.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 12,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.9	2.5	18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.5	52.8	7.5
– Net Position:	12,768	-16,260	3,492
– Gross Longs:	23,927	819	5,936
– Gross Shorts:	11,159	17,079	2,444
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	49.9	54.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-6.8	22.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 165,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -8,011 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,736 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	53.7	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	81.3	5.9
– Net Position:	165,725	-214,015	48,290
– Gross Longs:	241,817	415,872	93,836
– Gross Shorts:	76,092	629,887	45,546
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.3	18.2	56.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.5	-0.2	-1.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,646 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,589 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	51.6	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.8	57.9	11.5
– Net Position:	13,235	-15,208	1,973
– Gross Longs:	70,320	124,002	29,613
– Gross Shorts:	57,085	139,210	27,640
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.4	23.8	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-4.9	-9.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -96,193 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -15,533 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -80,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.6	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.3	24.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-96,193	106,512	-10,319
– Gross Longs:	40,736	166,931	29,299
– Gross Shorts:	136,929	60,419	39,618
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	87.6	32.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.2	21.9	-11.3

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -435 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 468 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.5	44.9	32.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	41.2	35.3
– Net Position:	-435	1,533	-1,098
– Gross Longs:	8,482	18,560	13,516
– Gross Shorts:	8,917	17,027	14,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	47.5	53.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	-3.1	-8.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -29,914 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 18,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,526 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.5 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	59.6	15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.5	37.9	20.3
– Net Position:	-29,914	39,037	-9,123
– Gross Longs:	37,619	107,243	27,430
– Gross Shorts:	67,533	68,206	36,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	82.7	2.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.2	-2.1	-29.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -44,126 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	53.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.2	24.6	16.8
– Net Position:	-44,126	59,100	-14,974
– Gross Longs:	68,969	109,462	19,509
– Gross Shorts:	113,095	50,362	34,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.9	63.0	15.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.6	6.4	-16.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -130 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 233 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -363 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.7	47.1	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.0	44.1	12.0
– Net Position:	-130	1,195	-1,065
– Gross Longs:	16,081	18,608	3,670
– Gross Shorts:	16,211	17,413	4,735
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.2	49.3	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-5.9	-14.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 78,005 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,062 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,943 net contracts.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.5	44.1	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.7	81.1	1.3
– Net Position:	78,005	-83,021	5,016
– Gross Longs:	115,535	98,971	7,942
– Gross Shorts:	37,530	181,992	2,926
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	75.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.4	-14.9	3.4

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 31,275 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.3	29.1	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.1	83.5	9.3
– Net Position:	31,275	-35,269	3,994
– Gross Longs:	35,223	18,861	9,998
– Gross Shorts:	3,948	54,130	6,004
– Long to Short Ratio:	8.9 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	21.3	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.5	-25.2	22.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 187 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 893 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.2	2.1	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	75.6	7.5	6.3
– Net Position:	187	-624	437
– Gross Longs:	9,040	251	1,178
– Gross Shorts:	8,853	875	741
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.2	35.2	22.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.8	-18.8	-5.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

03 Jun

Speculator Extremes: Live Cattle, Cocoa, Lean Hogs, Wheat & Brent top Bull/Bear Leaders

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on May 30th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 8.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -1,668 net contracts this week with a change of 9 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 7.5 this week. The speculator position registered 65,573 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher of 199 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso

The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 15.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 78,005 net contracts this week with a rise of 1,062 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 98.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 54.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,222 net contracts this week with a jump of 144,765 contracts in the speculator bets.

Live Cattle

The Live Cattle speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level sits at a 91.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.8 this week.

The speculator position was 101,378 net contracts this week with a small decline of -269 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Lean Hogs speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -36,114 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,262 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybean Oil

The Soybean Oil speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.6 this week. The speculator position was -31,248 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -3,385 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Wheat speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -93,996 net contracts this week with a decline of -7,677 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Brent Oil speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.4 this week. The speculator position was -53,294 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,488 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.5 this week. The speculator position was -850,421 net contracts this week with a decrease of -78,783 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News investing Opinions

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.