Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 62

30 Jul

US Dollar Speculators reduce their bullish bets to 2-Year low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (12,487 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (5,009 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,677 contracts), Swiss Franc (1,780 contracts) and Bitcoin (516 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,651 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (-5,013 contracts), the British Pound (-4,734 contracts), EuroFX (-1,602 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-1,962 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (-800 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Bullish Bets fall to 2-Year Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the decline of the speculator’s positioning in the US Dollar Index. The large speculative US Dollar Index positions decreased for a fourth consecutive week this week and the speculators have now subtracted a total of -8,914 net contracts from the overall position in just the last four weeks.

This week’s reduction by -5,013 contracts marked the largest one-week shortfall since December 20th of 2022 (which recorded a decline by -9,021 contracts). This bearishness has dropped the US Dollar Index speculator net position (currently at +6,054 contracts) to its lowest level of the past 108 weeks, dating back to June 29th of 2021.

Overall, the US Dollar speculator position has been weakening since hitting a cycle high on June 21st of 2022 with a total of +45,010 contracts. Since then, the steady and slow erosion of bullish bets has brought the net position to under the +10,000 contract level for just the second time in the past two years. This latest data is through Tuesday and before the US Federal Reserve’s latest rate increase by 25 basis points that took place on Wednesday. Speculators and market watchers are eyeing the end of the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign as inflation has been falling across most measures in the US economy.

The US Dollar Index futures price closed higher this week for a second straight week and ended the week right around the 101.40 level. The USD Index had ascended to a multi-decade high of 114.74 in September 2022 and has been on the downtrend since with a current decline (from top to latest price) of approximately 12 percent. The USD Index price fell to a 14-month low on July 18th at 99.22 before staging a comeback over the past two weeks and making it back over the 100 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index34,514206,05435-6,3396628520
EUR772,40875177,23087-234,2691157,03970
GBP237,3406058,99597-76,984317,98993
JPY223,76057-77,7522486,55578-8,80336
CHF44,18050-8,431323,421515,01074
CAD156,395315,53060-22,0964116,56660
AUD146,42328-51,2013749,561561,64056
NZD36,82025-94951324791761
MXN233,5494987,84193-92,05874,21738
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL53,4434431,97176-31,95725-1444
Bitcoin16,01777-64566-178082332

 

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (97 percent) and the Mexican Peso (93 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the Bitcoin (66 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (24 percent) and the Swiss Franc (32 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (35 percent) and the Australian Dollar (37 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (35.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.4 percent)
EuroFX (86.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (87.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (96.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (100.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (23.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (16.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (32.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (59.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (55.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (37.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (38.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (51.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (43.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (96.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.9 percent)
Bitcoin (65.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.7 percent)

 

Canadian Dollar & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (39 percent) and the British Pound (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (16 percent), the EuroFX (10 percent) and the Australian Dollar (10 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Dollar Index (-13 percent), Swiss Franc (-9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-13.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.9 percent)
EuroFX (9.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (7.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (35.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (15.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (39.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (36.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (9.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (5.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-7.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (5.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (7.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (9.9 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-33.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,054 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,013 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,067 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.622.610.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.141.010.0
– Net Position:6,054-6,339285
– Gross Longs:21,2587,7963,735
– Gross Shorts:15,20414,1353,450
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.065.719.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.216.4-26.3

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 177,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,602 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 178,832 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.552.112.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.582.55.2
– Net Position:177,230-234,26957,039
– Gross Longs:250,647402,62697,545
– Gross Shorts:73,417636,89540,506
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.711.470.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.8-12.518.8

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 58,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,734 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 63,729 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.531.917.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.664.310.0
– Net Position:58,995-76,98417,989
– Gross Longs:105,49875,73741,762
– Gross Shorts:46,503152,72123,773
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.72.693.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.3-32.712.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -77,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,487 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -90,239 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.672.013.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.333.317.4
– Net Position:-77,75286,555-8,803
– Gross Longs:30,358161,16630,040
– Gross Shorts:108,11074,61138,843
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.877.935.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-15.411.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -8,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,780 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.738.043.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.730.331.8
– Net Position:-8,4313,4215,010
– Gross Longs:7,80416,78719,044
– Gross Shorts:16,23513,36614,034
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.350.674.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.0-6.023.7

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,530 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,009 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 521 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.347.025.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.861.114.6
– Net Position:5,530-22,09616,566
– Gross Longs:42,75973,53939,413
– Gross Shorts:37,22995,63522,847
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.741.159.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:39.3-35.020.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.754.816.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:61.721.015.1
– Net Position:-51,20149,5611,640
– Gross Longs:39,10880,23723,735
– Gross Shorts:90,30930,67622,095
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.455.956.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.8-18.233.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,677 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.153.411.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.753.38.6
– Net Position:-94932917
– Gross Longs:12,93319,6644,080
– Gross Shorts:13,88219,6323,163
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.046.660.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.3-11.458.8

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 87,841 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,651 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 94,492 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.445.43.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.884.81.9
– Net Position:87,841-92,0584,217
– Gross Longs:117,732106,0618,608
– Gross Shorts:29,891198,1194,391
– Long to Short Ratio:3.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.86.538.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.50.4-61.9

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,971 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,933 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.020.79.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.280.59.5
– Net Position:31,971-31,957-14
– Gross Longs:36,34511,0735,084
– Gross Shorts:4,37443,0305,098
– Long to Short Ratio:8.3 to 10.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.425.343.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-9.213.2

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,161 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.62.69.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.63.74.2
– Net Position:-645-178823
– Gross Longs:11,9414221,503
– Gross Shorts:12,586600680
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.749.531.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.238.98.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
27 Jul

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 27.07.2023 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the resistance level. Currently, the instrument could go by the reversal signal in a descending wave. The correction target might be 1965.50. Upon testing the support, the price might rebound and continue the uptrend. However, the quotes could rise to 1990.00 without a correction.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 0.6300. Upon breaking the resistance, the quotes might have a chance to continue the uptrend. However, a correction to 0.6190 might develop and an uptrend might follow the pullback.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the support level on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 1.3055. However, the price might correct to 1.2895 and continue the uptrend following the pullback.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Jul

AUD remains highly volatile. Overview for 26.07.2023

By RoboForex.com

The Australian dollar, paired with the US dollar, is once again facing pressure. The current AUDUSD quote is 0.6759.

The Aussie’s volatility is drawing attention. On one hand, a strong US dollar exerts pressure on the AUD. On the other hand, China is sending quite positive signals.

Today’s statistics revealed that inflation in Australia for the second quarter declined to 5.4% year-over-year. On a quarterly basis, the indicator rose by 0.8% following a 1.4% increase from January to March this year. The easing of inflationary pressure is a positive signal. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to acknowledge this at its next meeting and keep the interest rate unchanged. The Australian dollar is reacting precisely to this development.

China’s readiness to stimulate its economy is favourable for Australia. As Australia’s primary trading and economic partner, all positive news coming from China is also encouraging for the AUD.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
26 Jul

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: Calm Before Fed Storm?

By ForexTime 

  • USD shaky ahead of Fed
  • USDJPY pressured below 141
  • SPX500_m preparing to breakout?
  • NQ100_m still in uptrend
  • Gold climbs beyond $1970

An air of tension settled over financial markets on Wednesday as investors braced for the pivotal Federal Reserve rate decision.

Global equities struggled for direction amid the growing caution, with European shares and US futures mixed as investors turned to the sidelines. Although the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points today, the key question is whether this will be the hike that concludes its aggressive campaign against inflation. Whatever the outcome of today’s policy meeting, it has the potential to rock financial markets.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on ahead of the Fed decision:

Dollar shaky and vulnerable 

The dollar has weakened against all G10 currencies this morning, with prices testing the 101.10 level. As discussed throughout the week, the pending Fed decision is likely to heavily influence the dollar’s short to medium-term outlook. A strong breakdown below 101.10 may open the doors towards 100.72 and 100.00. Should prices push back above 101.50, the next key level of interest can be found at 102.35.

EURUSD rebound or breakdown?

After rebounding from the 1.1032 region yesterday, the euro has extended gains this morning with bulls eyeing 1.1090. A solid breakout above this point may re-open a path back towards 1.12750. Should prices slip back below 1.1032, bears may target 1.0950.

GBPUSD to resume uptrend?

Wednesday’s strong bullish daily candle could be early signs of GBPUSD bulls returning to the scene. Indeed, prices remain in a bullish trend with the MACD trading to the upside. A move towards 1.3000 could be on the cards if 1.2810 proves to be reliable support. Alternatively, a break below this point may trigger a selloff toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average.

USDJPY pressured below 141.00

USDJPY bears seem to be slowly creeping back into the scene, especially after prices broke through the 141.00 level. Dollar weakness could drag the currency pair towards 138.80 and 138.00, respectively. If prices can push back above 141.00, bulls could challenge 141.90 once again.

SPX500_m breakout alert?

Expect the SPX500_m to be rocked by earnings releases from the largest companies in the world. The index remains bullish on the daily charts with resistance found at 4580. A strong breakout and daily close above this point could trigger a move toward 4640. Sustained weakness below 4580 could see prices test 4500 and 4463.

NQ100_m still in uptrend 

Our trade of the week remains in an uptrend on the daily charts. A strong move above 15700 could inspire a move towards 15947. Should prices slip back under 15300, the selloff may take the index towards 14965.

Gold gearing to push higher?

After kicking off the week on a rocky note, gold bulls seem to have their footing with prices trading above the sticky $1960 level. Should this rebound build momentum, this could take the precious metal towards $1985 and $2000. On the other hand, a decline back below $1955 may see prices test $1940 and $1932.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Jul

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were a bit lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (38,670 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (26,943 contracts), the British Pound (5,666 contracts), the Brazilian Real (735 contracts) and Bitcoin (694 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-5,317 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,923 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,375 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,304 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-1,674 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-944 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Euro and Japanese Yen Speculator Bets Jump this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the strength of this week’s moves in the speculator’s positioning of the Euro and Japanese Yen.

Large speculative Euro positions jumped this week by over +38,000 contracts and reversed a recent decline for the Euro positions in seven out of the previous eight weeks. This gain in bullish bets has pushed the overall net speculator position to the most bullish level of the past nine weeks at a total of +178,832 contracts.

The Euro currency’s strength has been on display over the past few months as the EURUSD exchange rate touched a one-year high this week at over the 1.1300 level. The EURUSD did close the week lower after hitting the one-year high but is now quite a ways off the 2022 low of 0.9508 that was touched in September.

The large speculative yen positions also surged this week by over +26,000 net contracts and gained for the second week in a row. The yen speculator positioning has been quite the opposite of the Euro as the Bank of Japan has maintained a policy of no interest rate increases which has prompted speculators to have large bearish positions in the yen. The speculator position on July 3rd marked the most bearish level since January of 2018 at a total of -117,920 contracts.

The yen positions in the past two weeks have improved though and this week’s gain brings the current bearish position (at -90,239 contracts) under the -100,000 contract threshold for the first time since May.

The yen’s exchange rate versus the US Dollar remains historically weak and in a downtrend in our trend model. The USDJPY exchange rate rose back over the 140.00 threshold this week (US Dollar strength/Japanese Yen weakness) after dipping below that level last week.

This upcoming week will be a potentially volatile week in currencies as the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve will have central bank meetings and announce their respective policy outlooks.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index41,0453711,06743-11,6175755023
EUR783,13280178,83287-229,3431350,51160
GBP265,7667763,729100-81,606017,87793
JPY230,93263-90,2391698,19584-7,95637
CHF43,21347-10,211285,927554,28472
CAD146,1712352155-12,9914712,47050
AUD148,59235-50,4013851,04557-64451
NZD39,40232-3,62644938492,68882
MXN238,0065194,49297-98,23933,74735
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL48,1463733,93379-32,19625-1,73730
Bitcoin15,45573-1,16157196096535

 

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (97 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (87 percent), Brazilian Real (79 percent) and the Bitcoin (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (16 percent) and the Swiss Franc (28 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (38 percent) and the US Dollar Index (43 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.0 percent)
EuroFX (87.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (96.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (16.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (27.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (55.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (43.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (50.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (96.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.0 percent)
Bitcoin (56.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (44.6 percent)

 

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (36 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (36 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Brazilian Real (10 percent), the Japanese Yen (9 percent) and the EuroFX (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-24 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-8 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.3 percent)
EuroFX (7.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-9.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (35.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (31.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (36.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (32.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (5.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-7.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-3.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (7.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (9.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (2.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-33.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-35.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 11,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -944 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,011 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.819.510.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.847.88.9
– Net Position:11,067-11,617550
– Gross Longs:27,4107,9944,193
– Gross Shorts:16,34319,6113,643
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.457.322.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.95.6-26.2

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 178,832 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 38,670 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 140,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.851.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.981.25.9
– Net Position:178,832-229,34350,511
– Gross Longs:264,514406,32897,050
– Gross Shorts:85,682635,67146,539
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):87.313.059.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.9-8.68.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 63,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.928.715.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.959.48.2
– Net Position:63,729-81,60617,877
– Gross Longs:135,26976,22939,762
– Gross Shorts:71,540157,83521,885
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.093.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.6-37.831.9

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -90,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 26,943 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,182 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.973.812.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.031.315.6
– Net Position:-90,23998,195-7,956
– Gross Longs:29,776170,49128,148
– Gross Shorts:120,01572,29636,104
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.483.637.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-7.62.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,211 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.742.142.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.328.432.1
– Net Position:-10,2115,9274,284
– Gross Longs:6,77218,18318,158
– Gross Shorts:16,98312,25613,874
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.654.872.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.5-1.833.9

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,923 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,444 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.250.524.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.859.416.0
– Net Position:521-12,99112,470
– Gross Longs:33,87773,83335,907
– Gross Shorts:33,35686,82423,437
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.047.350.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:36.2-35.028.0

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,317 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,084 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.757.214.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.722.814.9
– Net Position:-50,40151,045-644
– Gross Longs:38,25284,93721,539
– Gross Shorts:88,65333,89222,183
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.157.050.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.6-12.325.3

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,375 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,251 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.552.413.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.750.06.2
– Net Position:-3,6269382,688
– Gross Longs:13,19320,6545,117
– Gross Shorts:16,81919,7162,429
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.0 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.848.781.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.9-4.557.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 94,492 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,674 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 96,166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.644.03.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.985.22.1
– Net Position:94,492-98,2393,747
– Gross Longs:122,811104,6178,638
– Gross Shorts:28,319202,8564,891
– Long to Short Ratio:4.3 to 10.5 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.82.935.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.8-6.2-15.1

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 33,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.314.19.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.881.012.8
– Net Position:33,933-32,196-1,737
– Gross Longs:36,7306,7934,429
– Gross Shorts:2,79738,9896,166
– Long to Short Ratio:13.1 to 10.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.925.130.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.9-8.0-10.2

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 694 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,855 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.64.710.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.23.44.5
– Net Position:-1,161196965
– Gross Longs:11,8467221,657
– Gross Shorts:13,007526692
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.763.934.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-33.753.612.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Jul

Speculator Extremes: GBP, Cocoa, 2-Year & Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 18th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 35.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 63,729 net contracts this week with a change of 5,666 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 98.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 4.9 this week. The speculator position registered 76,488 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,373 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

 

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 96.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 94,492 net contracts this week with a change of -1,674 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Live Cattle speculator level is at a 92.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -0.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 104,844 net contracts this week with a change of -3,657 contracts in the speculator bets.

VIX


The VIX speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The VIX speculator level sits at a 90.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 12.8 this week.

The speculator position was -40,289 net contracts this week with a change of 10,444 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,119,380 net contracts this week with a change of -47,680 contracts in the speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -56.1 this week. The speculator position was -237,629 net contracts this week with a change of -44,936 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -14.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,350 net contracts this week with a change of -78 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,145,489 net contracts this week with a change of -89,405 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds


Finally, the Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The speculator position was -439,397 net contracts this week with a change of -6,485 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
21 Jul

Week Ahead: EURUSD set for another wild ride

By ForexTime 

Fasten your seatbelts because global financial markets could experience heightened volatility in the week ahead!

Investors will be bombarded with a long list of high-risk events ranging from pivotal central bank meetings, top-tier data from major economies and corporate earnings from the largest companies in the world.

But before we pinpoint what asset to watch out for amid the expected action, here are the scheduled economic data releases and events over the coming week:

Monday, July 24 

  • JPY: Japan Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone & Germany S&P Global PMIs
  • GBP: UK S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing & Services PMI

Tuesday, July 25 

  • EUR: Germany IFO business climate
  • USD: US Conf. Board consumer confidence
  • NQ100_m: Microsoft Corp earnings

Wednesday, July 26 

  • AUD: Australia CPI
  • USD: FOMC rate decision, US new home sales
  • SPX500_m: Coca-Cola earnings

Thursday, July 27 

  • CNH: China industrial profits
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • USD: US Q2 GDP, durable goods, initial jobless claims
  • SPX500_m: McDonald’s Corp earnings

Friday, July 28 

  • AUD: Australia retail sales
  • EUR: Germany CPI, Eurozone economic confidence, consumer confidence
  • JPY: BoJ rate decision, Tokyo CPI
  • USD: US June PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Indeed, the barrage of high-risk events could translate into fresh trading opportunities across financial markets. However, our attention will be directed to none other than the world’s most popular traded currency, which is set to be heavily influenced by the central bank combo and key reports.

But before we break down the factors that could see the EURUSD end July with a bang, it is worth keeping in mind that the currency seems to be under pressure on the H4 charts. After hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275, bulls seem to be running out of steam with bears greedily eyeing support at 1.1090. The events in the upcoming week could dictate whether prices rebound or sink lower.

Here are 4 reasons why you should not take your eyes off the EURUSD:

  1. Fed meeting 

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the upper band of the Fed funds to 5.5%. The question is whether this will be the hike that ends the central bank’s aggressive hiking campaign. Given the mixed US economic data over the past few weeks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the press conference are likely to be closely scrutinized by investors for fresh clues on future monetary policy.

  • Should the Fed signal more rate hikes down the road, this could inject dollar bulls with renewed inspiration – dragging the EURUSD lower.
  • If the Fed hints it’s done with raising rates, the dollar is likely to find itself under fresh selling pressure – resulting in the EURUSD pushing higher.

It is worth keeping in mind that traders are currently pricing in a 96% probability of a 25bps hike next week, with the probability of another 25 bps hike by November’s meeting only at 35%.

  1. ECB meeting 

The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. Cooling inflationary pressures continue to support expectations around the central bank moving closer to ending its hiking cycle. Nevertheless, President Christine Lagarde is expected to reiterate that the ECB is unlikely to ease anytime soon with the decision in September depending on economic data.

  • The euro could push higher if the ECB strikes a hawkish note and signals more rate hikes beyond July’s policy meeting. This may trigger a rebound in the EURUSD.
  • A cautious-sounding ECB that signals a pause in hikes down the line could weaken the euro, pulling the EURUSD lower.

  1. Top-tier data dump 

Throughout the trading week, investors will be dished out a platter of key economic reports from the United States and Europe which could rock the EURUSD.

On Monday, all eyes will be on key PMI reports from the Eurozone and Germany. Tuesday see’s the Germany IFO business climate figures and US Conf. Board consumer confidence data. The dollar could be injected with more volatility on Thursday due to the second quarter of US GDP figures and the initial jobless claims report. On Friday, inflation data from the largest economy in Europe will be under the spotlight. This will be complemented by the latest Eurozone economic and consumer confidence figures. To wrap up the week, much focus will be directed towards the June PCE Core Deflator which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation and University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

  • Should the pending US/Eurozone print above markets expectations, this may support speculation around rates remaining higher for longer – lending support to respective currency.
  • If the incoming data from the US/Eurozone disappoint, this could reinforce speculation around the hiking cycle coming to an end – weakening the respective currency.

  1. Technical forces 

EURUSD has found itself under selling pressure after hitting a 17-month high at 1.1275. Indeed, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was already at overbought levels with bears wasting no time to attack following the breakdown below 1.1200.

Despite the recent losses, the EURUSD remains in an uptrend on the daily charts with bulls maintaining some control above 1.1032. A technical throwback could be in the process which may see prices rebound back towards 17-month highs in the week ahead. Alternatively, a solid breakdown under 1.1032 may trigger a further selloff towards 1.0950 and 1.0850, respectively.

Zooming out into the weekly charts, prices remain in a bullish weekly channel. However, strong resistance can be found around the 200-week SMA. Should 1.1050 prove to be reliable support, this may provide a foundation for bulls to retest 1.1275 and beyond. Alternatively, a weekly close under 1.1050 may open a path back toward 1.0800.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
15 Jul

British Pound Speculator bets jump to 15-year high as GBP closes above 1.30

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (7,798 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (2,094 contracts), Mexican Peso (926 contracts), Japanese Yen (738 contracts) and Bitcoin (221 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Swiss Franc (-4,503 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,306 contracts), EuroFX (-2,675 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,081 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-502 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-83 contracts)also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator bets jump to 15-year high as GBP closes above 1.30

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the bullish strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions rose this week by almost +8,000 contracts and have now increased their bullish positions in three out of the past four weeks.

The overall gain for the past four weeks now totals +51,328 contracts. This has pushed the overall net position, which currently sits at +58,063 contracts, to the highest speculator bullish standing since November 6th of 2007, an over 15-year high.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by the Bank of England’s most recent interest rate increase in June that was by 50 basis points and brought the bank rate to 5 percent – its highest sitting in the past 15 years as well. Traders are forecasting more rate hikes out of the UK due to high inflation while other countries, like the US, are likely nearing the end of a rate-rising cycle.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been streaking higher this year and this week closed above the 1.3000 exchange rate for the first time since April of 2022. The GBPUSD currency pair had touched a low near 1.0360 as recently as September and has been on a strong uptrend since then. The GBPUSD has now risen by approximately 25 percent since that September bottom.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index28,925612,01145-13,577541,56634
EUR736,05656140,16272-192,4622552,30062
GBP239,1256158,063100-72,701014,63887
JPY252,34979-117,1820129,07799-11,89529
CHF43,56348-7,907348,16558-25857
CAD140,395194,44459-14,026479,58244
AUD152,49542-45,0844354,03559-8,95131
NZD34,94720-1,251502,61953-1,36834
MXN239,7385196,16698-99,49323,32732
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL49,3633833,19878-31,19326-2,00528
Bitcoin16,30280-1,8554580401,05137

 

Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (98 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (78 percent), EuroFX (72 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (0 percent) and the Swiss Franc (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (43 percent) and the Bitcoin (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.8 percent)
EuroFX (72.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (73.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (94.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (0.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (33.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (58.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (43.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (43.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (50.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (55.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (97.8 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (97.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (78.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (75.3 percent)
Bitcoin (44.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.7 percent)

 

British Pound & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (32 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (32 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (11 percent), the Brazilian Real (2 percent) and the US Dollar Index (-1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Swiss Franc (-20 percent), Japanese Yen (-12 percent) and the EuroFX (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-1.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.1 percent)
EuroFX (-9.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (27.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-12.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-6.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (32.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (49.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (11.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (2.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-2.0 percent)
Bitcoin (-35.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-51.8 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 12,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,317 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.78.814.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.255.79.5
– Net Position:12,011-13,5771,566
– Gross Longs:20,7412,5364,316
– Gross Shorts:8,73016,1132,750
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.054.233.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.34.3-21.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 140,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,675 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 142,837 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.554.813.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.481.05.9
– Net Position:140,162-192,46252,300
– Gross Longs:224,351403,46095,768
– Gross Shorts:84,189595,92243,468
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.425.462.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.97.36.4

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 58,063 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.730.616.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.461.010.5
– Net Position:58,063-72,70114,638
– Gross Longs:111,66773,15039,825
– Gross Shorts:53,604145,85125,187
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.086.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.4-33.924.8

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -117,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -117,920 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.875.411.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.324.216.3
– Net Position:-117,182129,077-11,895
– Gross Longs:29,838190,18929,288
– Gross Shorts:147,02061,11241,183
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.498.629.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.511.0-3.2

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -7,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,503 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.047.335.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.228.636.0
– Net Position:-7,9078,165-258
– Gross Longs:7,41720,60415,411
– Gross Shorts:15,32412,43915,669
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.758.556.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.810.92.8

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 4,444 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -83 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,527 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.049.123.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.859.116.6
– Net Position:4,444-14,0269,582
– Gross Longs:35,07268,93532,865
– Gross Shorts:30,62882,96123,283
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.746.644.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:32.0-36.141.5

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -45,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -502 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.657.410.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.221.916.6
– Net Position:-45,08454,035-8,951
– Gross Longs:43,66187,45816,392
– Gross Shorts:88,74533,42325,343
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.059.230.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.9-3.814.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,251 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 830 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.053.47.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.645.911.5
– Net Position:-1,2512,619-1,368
– Gross Longs:13,29718,6662,656
– Gross Shorts:14,54816,0474,024
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.252.733.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.4-3.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 96,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 926 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.344.83.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.286.32.1
– Net Position:96,166-99,4933,327
– Gross Longs:122,996107,4918,414
– Gross Shorts:26,830206,9845,087
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):97.82.132.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.1-9.8-10.8

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 33,198 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.016.38.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.879.512.6
– Net Position:33,198-31,193-2,005
– Gross Longs:36,5418,0704,213
– Gross Shorts:3,34339,2636,218
– Long to Short Ratio:10.9 to 10.2 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.026.328.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.45.0-47.7

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 221 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,076 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.68.29.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.03.33.0
– Net Position:-1,8558041,051
– Gross Longs:12,3221,3431,535
– Gross Shorts:14,177539484
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.5 to 13.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.687.436.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.655.014.0

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

 

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
15 Jul

COT Speculator Extremes: British Pound, Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on July 11th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The British Pound speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 32.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 58,063 net contracts this week with a change of 7,798 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Mexican Peso speculator level is now at a 97.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.1 this week. The speculator position registered 96,166 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 926 contracts in speculator bets.

Live Cattle


The Live Cattle speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Live Cattle speculator level resides at a 96.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 7.7 this week. The overall speculator position was 108,501 net contracts this week with a change of 3,058 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 91.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 4.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 70,115 net contracts this week with a change of -2,469 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 84.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -15.0 this week.

The speculator position was -5,651 net contracts this week with a change of 95 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -18.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -8,272 net contracts this week with a change of -382 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,056,084 net contracts this week with a change of -26,270 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,071,700 net contracts this week with a change of -13,274 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -12.5 this week. The speculator position was -117,182 net contracts this week with a change of 738 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Finally, the 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -33.7 this week. The speculator position was -192,693 net contracts this week with a change of 13,807 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
14 Jul

Week Ahead: Can GBPUSD Bulls Maintain Hunger For Gains?

By ForexTime 

The explosive price action seen this week continues to highlight how global financial markets remain sensitive to key inflation data!

Currencies, commodities, and stocks were injected with fresh volatility mid-week after the softer-than-expected US inflation figures calmed fears around Fed rate hikes.

  • The US Dollar Index cut through the 100.70 support like a hot knife through butter and is currently on pace for its worst seek since November 2022.
  • Gold prices are trading back around the $1960 level, currently up roughly 1.6% this week.
  • Global stocks are set for their biggest weekly gain since November 2022, with the S&P500 hitting fresh 2023 highs.

Markets may be pumped with more volatility this afternoon due to earnings announcement by Wall Street banks.

And even before things settle down across the board, investors are already bracing for fresh action in the week ahead thanks to top-tier economic reports and key risk events…

Monday, July 17

  • CNH: China key policy rate decision, Q2 GDP, retail sales, industrial production
  • USD: US empire manufacturing

Tuesday, July 18

  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia July meeting minutes
  • CAD: CPI, housing starts
  • USD: US retail sales, industrial production
  • SPX500_m: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley earnings

Wednesday, July 19

  • EUR: June CPI (final)
  • GBP: UK June CPI
  • USD: US housing starts
  • SPX500_m: Goldman Sachs, IBM earnings
  • NQ100_m: Tesla, Netflix earnings

Thursday, July 20

  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Friday, July 21

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • JPY: Japan June CPI
  • GBP: UK Retail Sales, Gfk Consumer Confidence

Our focus falls on the GBPUSD which has resembled a speeding train gaining noticeable momentum on the technical charts!

After rallying to a fresh 2023 high at 1.3140 and rising more than 2% this week (as of writing), sterling bulls are certainly in the driving seat. Indeed, the GBPUSD has drawn strength from upbeat UK GDP data and a broadly weaker dollar.

The key question is whether bulls can maintain the appetite for further gains in the week ahead.

Here are 3 reasons why you should keep an eye on the GBPUSD:

  1. UK June Consumer Price Index (CPI)

On Wednesday, July 19th – the latest UK inflation report will be published.

All eyes will be on the incoming UK inflation report which could influence BoE hike expectations. This will be topped off with the latest retail sales figures and Gfk Consumer confidence report on Friday which could provide fresh insight into the health of the UK economy.

Markets are forecasting:

  • CPI year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to cool 8.2% from 8.7% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 7.1% from 7.1% seen in May.
  • CPI month-on-month (June 2023 vs May 2023) to cool 0.4% from 0.7% in the prior month.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 73% probability of a 50-basis point BoE hike in August as the central bank continues to battle sticky inflation.

  • Signs of still stubborn inflation may reinforce expectations around the BoE hiking rates by 50 basis points at its August meeting. This development could propel the GBPUSD beyond 1.3200.
  • Should June’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflationary pressures, this could fuel hopes around the BoE opting for a smaller 25 basis point hike in August. Speculation around the BoE slowing down the pace of rate increases may weaken the pound, dragging the GBPUSD back towards 1.3000.

  1. Dollar volatility

Fed hike expectations are likely to influence the US dollar in the week ahead. On top of this, investors will be dished out key US data which may provide fresh insight into the health of the largest economy in the world.

The US empire manufacturing will be under the spotlight on Monday, to key US retail sales and industrial production figures on Tuesday. Much attention will also be directed towards the US initial jobless claims and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Thursday.

  • If US economic data disappoints, this could weaken the dollar as expectations mount over the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes down the road. Dollar weakness is seen pushing the GBPUSD higher.
  • A strong set of economic releases may bolster the case for US rates remaining higher for longer. This is likely to strengthen the dollar, dragging the GBPUSD lower.

  1. Technical forces – bulls

The GBPUSD remains heavily bullish on the daily and weekly timeframe.

There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows in the weekly timeframe with prices slicing through the 200-week Simple Moving Average. Given how the currency pair remains in a healthy weekly bullish channel, the path of least resistance points north. A strong weekly close above 1.3200 may encourage an incline towards the next major resistance at 1.3700. While bulls are clearly in a position of power, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached overbought levels. A technical throwback could be on the table before bull’s attack once again.

Zooming into the daily charts, the GBPUSD remains in a strong uptrend. After hitting a fresh 2023 high at 1.3140, the question is whether bulls have the appetite for more gains? A strong breakout above this point could encourage an incline towards 1.3200 and 1.3250. However, should prices slip back below 1.3000, this may trigger a further decline towards 1.2840.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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