Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 61

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 27.06.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern on H4 near the support level. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be the resistance level at 1.1000. However, the price could correct to 1.0855 and continue the uptrend after the test of the support level.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The growth target might be 144.40. However, the quotes might pull back to 143.00 and continue the uptrend after a correction to the support level.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

EURGBP has formed a Hammer reversal pattern on H4. Currently, the instrument is going by the reversal signal in an ascending wave. The pullback target might be 0.8600. Upon testing this level and rebounding from it, the price will get a chance to continue the downtrend. However, the quotes might still drop to 0.8525 without testing the resistance level.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Navigating EUR/USD Stability, Speculation, and Technical Analysis

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD remains steady near 1.0910 as it enters the new week of June, shrugging off some of the tension it previously faced.

In the recent past, the market was consumed with speculation and conjecture about the next moves of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch monitor, there is a high likelihood of a credit cost increase at the July meeting.

Monetary policymakers at the Fed have been hinting at similar possibilities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while addressing politicians last week, expressed that the idea of raising rates again seemed reasonable.

The primary objective for the Fed remains the same—to bring inflation back to 2%. Presently, inflation figures are considerably higher, necessitating an ongoing battle.

From a technical analysis perspective, EUR/USD has followed the projected upward wave to 1.1000 on the H4 timeframe. Subsequently, the market experienced a downward impulse, reaching 1.0844. A correction to 1.0930 could develop today, and after its completion, a new downward wave to 1.0740, possibly extending to 1.0660, may ensue. This scenario gains support from the MACD indicator, with its signal line currently at highs and descending sharply towards zero.

On the H1 timeframe, a consolidation range has formed around 1.0940. Upon breaking out upwards, the market exhibited an extended structure, reaching 1.1000. It then underwent a downward impulse to 1.0840. A correction to 1.0940 has already occurred today, testing from below. Following its completion, a fresh downward wave to 1.0840 could commence. This technical scenario finds confirmation from the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is above 50 and could potentially rise to 80 today.

Overall, EUR/USD has remained resilient near the 1.0910 level, exhibiting stability despite previous uncertainties. The upcoming actions of the US Federal Reserve System regarding interest rates continue to be a focal point for market participants, with analysts closely monitoring the potential impact on the currency pair. From a technical standpoint, various indicators and patterns suggest the possibility of both corrective rallies and downward movements, indicating the importance of monitoring key levels and trend developments.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Trade of the Week: EURUSD to suffer another inflation scare?

By ForexTime

  • Bloomberg FX model: 74% chance EURUSD will trade within 1.0784 – 1.1010 this week.
  • Traders to react to Powell vs. Lagarde comments due June 27-28
  • EURUSD typically sees 38% larger 1-day move on European CPI release days

The world’s most-traded FX pair has managed to shrug off the threat to the Putin regime over the weekend.

While keeping a wary eye over potential developments in Russia, it’s back to the usual grind of watching the incoming inflation data, and interpreting what the CPI numbers could mean for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next moves on interest rates.

 

Here’s are two main factors to look out for this week:

 

1) Speeches by Fed and ECB chiefs

Firstly, note that traders and investors tend to boost the currency of the central bank that appears to have more rate hikes in store (hawkish).

That’s what markets will be thinking about, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde are set to offer public comments between Tuesday, June 27th and Wednesday, June 28th.

 

What markets currently think the Fed will do next?

Markets are only pricing in just one more 25-basis point hike out of the US Federal Reserve for the rest of 2023.

Yet, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been trying to convince markets since the FOMC meeting earlier this month that the Fed may have 2 more rate hikes this year.

Except that, markets just aren’t buying it.

 

What markets currently think the European Central Bank (ECB) will do?

Markets expect the ECB to trigger two more 25-bps hikes (50-bps in total) before the year is over.

Hence, no surprise that EURUSD has climbed by about 2% so far this month.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Should markets finally take heed of Powell’s hawkish messaging, that could lead to a stronger US dollar that drags EURUSD lower.
  • Alternatively, should Powell’s hawkish intentions be once again pooh-poohed by markets, that may push EURUSD even higher.

 

 

2) European inflation data

Thursday, June 29th: Germany June CPI (consumer price index, which is used to measure headline inflation)

Markets are expecting inflation to tick back higher in the Europe’s largest economy:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.2% higher; inflation back to positive growth after May’s 0.1% month-on-month contraction)
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 6.3% higher.
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s 6.1% year-on-year number.

 

Friday, June 30th: Eurozone June CPI

Here are the market’s forecasts:

  • Month-on-month CPI (June 2023 vs. May 2023) to be 0.3% higher; inflation back to growth after May’s 0.0% month-on-month reading.
  • Year-on-year CPI (June 2023 vs. June 2022) to be 5.6% higher; a slower annual pace compared to May’s 6.1% year-on-year advance
  • Core CPI (excluding more volatile items such as food and fuel) to be 5.5% higher year-on-year (June 2023 vs. June 2022).
    If so, that would mean inflation is ticking back up at a faster pace compared to May 2023’s core CPI year-on-year number of 5.3%.

Overall, signs of still stubborn inflation may ramp up market bets for more ECB rate hikes.

The prospects of more rate hikes in an economy tend to strengthen its currency.

 

Potential Scenarios:

  • Higher-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a stronger Euro versus the US dollar.
  • Alternatively, lower-than-expected CPI prints out of Germany/Eurozone later this week may translate into a weaker EURUSD.

 

 

EURUSD tends to post larger-than-average moves on CPI data

So far in 2023, EURUSD has seen an average intraday move of 80 pips between any given day’s highest price and that same day’s lowest.

However, on the days that Germany or Europe releases their respective CPI data, EURUSD tends to see an average intraday move of 110 pips, which is about 38% (or 30 pips) more than the daily average so far this year.

In other words, expect greater EURUSD volatility when Germany and the Eurozone release their respective CPI prints later this week.

 

Note also that EURUSD has posted larger intraday moves in 3 out of the past four of Germany’s CPI releases, compared to EURUSD’s 1-day move on the day of the Eurozone’s CPI release.

After all, Germany is the largest economy in Europe. Hence, the former’s CPI print is seen as a forerunner to the bloc’s headline CPI print.

 

 

Key levels

Potential Support

  • 14-day simple moving average (SMA)
  • 1.08444: intraday low on June 23rd
  • 100-day SMA around 1.080 psychologically-important level

 

Potential Resistance

  • 1.09426: 50% Fibonacci level from EURUSD’s Jan 2021 – Sept 2022 drop, peak-to-trough
  • 1.09708: intraday high on June 16th
  • 1.10123: recent cycle high

 

Bloomberg’s FX model now points to a 74% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0784 – 1.1010 range in the next one week.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (39,873 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (20,883 contracts), the Australian Dollar (12,129 contracts), Canadian Dollar (3,125 contracts), Swiss Franc (192 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-7,173 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (-3,680 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-1,828 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-254 contracts) and Bitcoin (-346 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculators sharply boosted bullish bets on BOE rate hike

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was this week’s sharp boost in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Pound positions jumped by over +39,000 contracts this week and halted a two-week streak of declines.

The Pound weekly positions rise was the largest one-week increase on record, according to the CFTC data that goes back to 1988. The gain has pushed the overall net position now to over +46,608 contracts and the highest standing since April 17th of 2018, a span of 270 weeks.

The Pound’s positioning was helped out by the anticipation of the Bank of England’s latest interest rate increase that was by 50 basis points on Thursday. This brought the bank rate to 5 percent and its highest sitting in the past 15 years.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar reacted strongly and touched it’s highest level (1.2874) since April of 2022 after the interest rate announcement. However, the Pound closed out Thursday and Friday lower with the weekly close at the 1.2714 exchange rate.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jun-20-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index27,3061714,86150-16,574491,71335
EUR732,97964144,64974-192,7232548,07456
GBP226,5055346,608100-59,003012,39582
JPY238,55671-107,6563118,27293-10,61632
CHF36,12822-4,851425,23654-38556
CAD184,10651-33,5432318,7586914,78556
AUD149,89844-49,6163950,98657-1,37049
NZD32,40113-2,659464,44157-1,78229
MXN224,8974699,718100-103,04003,32232
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL52,9914325,90269-23,41836-2,48424
Bitcoin15,6877839784-927053025

 


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (100 percent) and the Mexican Peso (100 percent) lead the currency markets this week. Bitcoin (84 percent), EuroFX (74 percent) and the Brazilian Real (69 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (3 percent) and the comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (23 percent), Australian Dollar (39 percent) and the Swiss Franc (42 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (49.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (48.3 percent)
EuroFX (74.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (100.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (68.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (4.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (20.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (38.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (46.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (51.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (100.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (87.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.1 percent)
Bitcoin (83.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (89.9 percent)

 

British Pound & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (33 percent) and the Mexican Peso (18 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (8 percent), the US Dollar Index (6 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Japanese Yen (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the EuroFX (-13 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.4 percent)
EuroFX (-13.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-8.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (33.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (4.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-28.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-5.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (12.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-0.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-15.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (5.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (18.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-11.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-11.8 percent)
Bitcoin (-0.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (10.0 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,998 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.83.115.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.463.89.5
– Net Position:14,861-16,5741,713
– Gross Longs:20,9728354,318
– Gross Shorts:6,11117,4092,605
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.749.435.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.2-6.32.7

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 144,649 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,173 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,822 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.354.412.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.680.76.1
– Net Position:144,649-192,72348,074
– Gross Longs:229,399398,64692,826
– Gross Shorts:84,750591,36944,752
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.125.455.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.414.0-10.8

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 46,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 39,873 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,735 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.832.516.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.358.610.8
– Net Position:46,608-59,00312,395
– Gross Longs:101,56773,69236,837
– Gross Shorts:54,959132,69524,442
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.082.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.1-30.410.6

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -107,656 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,680 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,976 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.573.411.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.623.916.2
– Net Position:-107,656118,272-10,616
– Gross Longs:32,244175,20127,983
– Gross Shorts:139,90056,92938,599
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.693.431.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-28.724.0-5.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,851 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,043 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.043.133.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.528.634.8
– Net Position:-4,8515,236-385
– Gross Longs:8,32215,58512,170
– Gross Shorts:13,17310,34912,555
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.853.656.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.00.8-0.3

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -33,543 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,125 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,668 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.362.420.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.552.212.8
– Net Position:-33,54318,75814,785
– Gross Longs:28,187114,92538,400
– Gross Shorts:61,73096,16723,615
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.368.955.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-15.832.2

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -49,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 12,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -61,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.552.914.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:63.618.915.2
– Net Position:-49,61650,986-1,370
– Gross Longs:45,74379,30021,444
– Gross Shorts:95,35928,31422,814
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.856.949.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.4-4.415.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -2,659 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -831 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.557.38.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.743.614.1
– Net Position:-2,6594,441-1,782
– Gross Longs:10,86718,5732,794
– Gross Shorts:13,52614,1324,576
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.457.028.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.20.4-24.7

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 99,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 20,883 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 78,835 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:53.842.13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.587.92.2
– Net Position:99,718-103,0403,322
– Gross Longs:121,00594,7338,262
– Gross Shorts:21,287197,7734,940
– Long to Short Ratio:5.7 to 10.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.032.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.1-15.8-20.3

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 25,902 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -254 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.920.210.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.164.415.3
– Net Position:25,902-23,418-2,484
– Gross Longs:36,53510,6855,625
– Gross Shorts:10,63334,1038,109
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.735.924.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.116.1-35.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -346 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 743 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:76.11.68.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.57.54.6
– Net Position:397-927530
– Gross Longs:11,9322501,259
– Gross Shorts:11,5351,177729
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.2 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.922.525.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.58.6-4.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Technical Analysis & Forecast 23.06.2023

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has broken the consolidation range upwards and completed a structure of growth to the 1.1010 level. Today the market is forming a pattern of a declining wave to 1.0925. After this level is reached, a link of growth to 1.0955 (test from below) is possible, followed by a decline to 1.0899. This is an estimated target.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has completed a wave of correction to the 1.2832 level and started to develop another wave of decline. The market formed a consolidation range around the 1.2741 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 1.2696 level. A link of growth to the 1.2741 level (test from below) is not excluded, followed by a decline to 1.2646 with the prospect of trend continuation to 1.2588.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The currency pair continues to develop a wave of growth to the 143.50 level. Today the 143.42 level could be reached. A link of decline to 142.55 could form next, followed by growth to the 143.50 level. After this level is reached, a correction to the 141.66 level could start. Following the completion of the correction, a wave of growth to 144.88 is expected.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The currency pair has completed a structure of a wave of growth to the 0.8955 level. Today the market is forming a consolidation range around this level. An exit upwards to the 0.8990 level is expected. Another tie of decline to 0.8966 could develop next, followed by growth to 0.9000 with the prospect of trend continuation to the 0.9040 level.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair has formed a structure of a wave of decline to the 0.6691 level. Today a consolidation range above this level could develop. With an exit upwards, a correction to the 0.6757 level is possible. With an exit downwards, the trend could continue to the 0.6622 level.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues to develop a consolidation range around the 76.00 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 73.33 level. A link of growth to 78.48 is expected. A breakout of this level upwards will open the potential for trend continuation to the 80.50 level. This is a local target.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues to develop a consolidation range around the 1917.00 level. Today the market extended the range downwards to the 1909.90 level. A link of growth to 1917.00 (test from below) is expected, followed by a decline to the 1905.55 level. With an exit from this range downwards, the trend could continue to the 1901.00 level. With an exit upwards, a correction to 1936.66 is possible.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index continues to develop a consolidation range around the 4379.0 level. Today a decline to 4336.0 is possible. A rise to the 4379.0 level (test from below) could start next, followed by a decline to the 4300.0 level. This is a local target.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

GBPUSD Waits On BoE Rate Decision

By ForexTime 

The GBPUSD remains choppy on the daily timeframe but bulls linger in the vicinity. Further upside could be on the cards, especially after prices created a potential new impulse wave.

With just over an hour left until the BoE rate decision, here is watch to watch out for on the technical front:

Bulls jumped back into the scene after prices rebounded from the 1.23079 lower bottom on 25 May. Since then, prices have pushed higher, breaking through the weekly resistance level that become a support and was retested by bears. The price reached another weekly resistance level and a higher top was created on 16 June at 1.28483. Although bears tried to pull the price down and succeeded for a short while, bulls seem determined to re-test the weekly resistance level with a higher bottom forming on 21 June at 1.26912.

If the bulls accomplish this feat and manage to drive the price higher than 1.28483, three possible targets become possible from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher top at 1.28483 and dragging it to the higher bottom at 1.26912, the following targets can be established:

  • The first possible target is at 1.29454 (161.8%).

  • The second price target is likely at 1.31025 (261.8%)

  • The third and final target may reach 1.33567 (423.6%) if the price is able to break through a weekly resistance level around the 1.31927 level.

If the support level at 1.26912 is broken, this scenario is no longer valid.

As long as bulls can keep up the momentum with demand overcoming supply, the market sentiment for GBPUSD on the D1 time frame will remain bullish.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade Of The Week: Will BoE Decision Push GBPUSD Higher?

By ForexTime 

This will be a big week for Sterling as focus falls on the latest UK CPI figures and rate decision from the Bank of England.

Sterling is the best-performing G10 currency year-to-date, gaining roughly 6% against the dollar thanks to fundamental and technical factors.

Indeed, investor appetite towards the British Pound continues to be supported by the resilience of the UK economy while hot inflation figures have fuelled expectations around the BoE keeping rates higher for longer. Regarding the technical picture, the GBPUSD is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe was prices trading at levels not seen in 14 months as of writing.

The GBPUSD has the potential to push higher this week and here are 3 reasons why:

  • BoE rate decision

The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 22nd June. 

24 hours before the BoE decision, the latest UK inflation figures will be published with markets forecasting CPI to cool 8.4%, down from the April print of 8.7%. Given how this is still more than 4 times the BOE’s target inflation rate of 2%, this is likely to keep BoE hawks in the driving seat.

Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This would be the thirteenth straight rate hike, taking the key rate to 4.75%. Given how UK inflation remains sticky along with strong wage growth, the central bank is expected to take rates close to 6% over the coming months.

  • If the BoE strikes a hawkish note and signals further rate hikes, this is likely to push the GBPUSD higher.
  • Should the BoE sound more dovish and expresses concern over the economy, this may send the GBPUSD lower as investors re-evaluate rate hike bets.

 

  • Jerome Powell’s testimony 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will provide his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.

Although Powell is widely expected to reiterate comments from his post-Fed meeting press conference, this event still has the potential to trigger dollar volatility due to market sensitivity around rate hike expectations.

  • Dollar bulls could receive a boost if Powell sounds hawkish and offers fresh clues on Fed hike timings. A stronger dollar is seen dragging the GBPUSD lower
  • Should Powell strike a more cautious tone during Testimony, this could deflate the dollar – resulting in the GBPUSD pushing higher.

 

  • Technical forces favour bulls

The GBPUSD remains firmly bullish on the daily timeframe. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading firmly above the 200, 100, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages. Bulls are currently approaching key weekly resistance at 1.2870 where the weekly 200 SMA resides.

A solid weekly close above this level could encourage an incline towards levels not seen since early April 2022 at 1.3100. Should prices slip back below the 1.2730 level, this may trigger a decline back to 1.2640 and 1.2550, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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Murrey Math Lines 15.06.2023 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com
USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. However, the RSI is nearing the overbought area. As a result, in these circumstances a test of 7/8 (142.18) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a decline to the support at 5/8 (139.06). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance at 7/8 (142.18). In this case, the pair might continue growing, and the quotes might reach 8/8 (143.75).

USDJPY_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline after a rebound from 7/8 (142.18), might be a breakout of the lower border of the VoltyChannel.

USDJPY_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a downward breakout of 2/8 (1.3305) is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 0/8 (1.3183). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance at 3/8 (1.3366). In this case, the pair could correct to 4/8 (1.3427).

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the lower line of the VoltyChannel might increase the probability of a decline.

USDCAD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD bulls in driving seat ahead of ECB

By ForexTime 

The EURUSD has turned bullish on the daily timeframe. Prices were initially in a down trend until 31 May when a last lower bottom was recorded at 1.06353. After breaking above significant resistance levels, bulls were back in the driving seat with prices advancing to the upside from there.

After rebounding from the lower bottom, prices pressed though the 15 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Momentum Oscillator provided confirmation by heading for the 100 baseline and breaking into bullish terrain a bit later.

A higher top was created when the price bounced off a weekly resistance level on 8 June at 1.07871. Bears tried to pull the price lower but they could not make any headway before bulls took over again.

On 12 June the bulls broke through the higher top and weekly resistance level and a long trade was triggered. Three possible targets were possible from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the higher top 1.07871 and dragging it to a higher bottom that was established on 7 June at 1.06671, the following targets were established:

  • The first potential target was at 1.08613 (161.8%) and the market reached that price on 14 June.

  • The second price target is likely at 1.09813 (261.8%)

  • The third and final target may reach 1.11754 (423.6%) if the price are able to break through a weekly resistance level around the 1.10843 level.

If the support level at 1.06671 is broken, this scenario is no longer appropriate, and any open risk must be managed accordingly.

As long as the bulls keep building momentum with demand overcoming supply, the market sentiment for EURUSD on the D1 time frame will remain bullish.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com