Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 60

Technical Analysis & Forecast 13.10.2023

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has completed a wave of growth to 1.0638. The market has formed a consolidation range under this level and, escaping it downwards, continues developing the declining wave to 1.0470. After the price hits this level, a link of growth to 1.0550 is not excluded (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1.0424.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has completed a wave of growth to 1.2337. By now, the market has formed a consolidation range under this level. Breaking the range downwards, the market completed a declining wave to 1.2171. A link of correction to 1.2222 is not excluded (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1.2121. This is a local target.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed a wave of growth to 149.81. A link of decline to 149.00 is expected (with a test from above). Next, a link of growth to 150.75 might follow.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed a wave of decline to 0.8989. By now, the market has formed a consolidation range above this level and is forming a growing impulse to 0.9122, escaping the range upwards. This is the first target.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has completed a rising link to 0.6444. Practically, the market demonstrates the wave of growth as complete. By now, a consolidation range has formed under 0.6444 and, escaping it downwards, the market develops an impulse of decline to 0.6262. This is a local target.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent continues forming a consolidation range around 86.00. A link of decline to 84.00 is not excluded, followed by a rising link to 89.00. This is the first target.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has completed a wave of growth to 1884.80. Today the market has performed a declining impulse to 1867.00 and a rising link to 1876.55. Practically, a consolidation range has formed which the price might later break downwards to 1847.77. This is the first target.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The stock index is forming a declining impulse to 4310.0. Next, the quotes might rise to 4355.0 (with a test from below). Next, a new wave of decline to 4200.0 might begin. This is a local target.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Week Ahead: Looming “death cross” teases GBPUSD bears

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD set to be driven by technical and fundamental forces
  • Keep eye on UK CPI report, US data dump and Fed speeches
  • Looming “death cross” formation points to further declines
  • GBPUSD remains bearish despite recent bounce
  • Key levels of interest found at 1.2310 and 1.2050

The combination of geopolitical risk and Fed rate expectations injected markets with explosive levels of volatility this week. We could see more action later today due to earnings announcements by Wall Street banks.

And even before things settle down, volatility is likely to intensify in the week ahead thanks to top-tier economic reports and speeches from policymakers among other key risk events:

Monday, October 16

  • CNH: China medium-term lending facility rate
  • JPY: Japan industrial production
  • GBP: BOE chief economist Huw Pill speech
  • USD: US Empire Manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Tuesday, October 17

  • CAD: Canada housing starts, CPI
  • EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment
  • USD: US retail sales, industrial production, New York Fed President John Williams, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speech
  • SPX500_m: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, October 18

  • CNH: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
  • EUR: Eurozone CPI
  • GBP: UK September CPI
  • USD: US housing starts, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, New York Fed President John Williams speech
  • NQ100_m: Netflix, Tesla earnings

Thursday, October 19

  • CNH: China property prices
  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • JPY: Japan trade
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, existing home sales,
  • USD: Fed speak – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlantia Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan

Friday, October 20

  • CAD: Canada retail sales
  • CNH: China loan prime rates
  • NZD: New Zealand trade
  • JPY: Japan CPI
  • USD: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speech

Our focus falls on the GBPUSD which is forming a “death cross” pattern on the daily timeframe.

A death cross happens when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) moves below its 200-day SMA. This technical pattern is widely viewed as a signal that prices may continue to fall further in the medium to longer term.

After initially kicking off the week on a positive note amid a weaker dollar, the GBPUSD tumbled aggressively on Thursday thanks to the stronger-than-expected US inflation figures. With the dollar drawing strength from renewed Fed hike bets, the GBPUSD could resume its downtrend.

Here are 3 reasons why GBPUSD could be gearing up for a major move:

  1. UK September Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The latest UK inflation data published on Wednesday, 18th October is likely to influence expectations around the BoE’s next move. Before this key report, the UK will release its latest batch of labour market data on Tuesday, October 17th. Any further signs of the UK jobs market’s cooling may support the argument around the BoE keeping rates on hold for the rest of 2023.

Markets are forecasting:

  • CPI year-on-year (September 2023 vs. September 2022) to cool 6.5% from 6.7% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to cool 6.5% from 6.7% seen in August.
  • CPI month-on-month (September 2023 vs August 2023) to rise 0.5% from 0.3% in the prior month.

As of writing, traders are pricing in a 45% probability of a 25 basis point BoE hike by the end of 2023.

  • Signs of still stubborn inflation may boost bets around the BoE hiking rates one more time before the end of 2023, pushing the GBPUSD towards 1.2310.
  • Should September’s CPI report show signs of cooling inflationary pressures, this could fuel hopes around the BoE keeping rates on hold – dragging the GBPUSD lower as a result.
  1. US data dump + Fed speeches

Dollar volatility could be the name of the game next week due to key US economic data and speeches by a host of Fed officials. After receiving a boost from stronger-than-expected US inflation data, dollar bulls could switch into higher gear if the incoming economic releases support the case for another Fed hike in 2023.

The US Empire manufacturing will be in focus on Monday, with key US retail sales and industrial production figures published on Tuesday and US initial jobless claims on Thursday. These reports will be complemented by speeches from various Fed officials including Fed chair Jerome Powell.

  • If US economic data misses expectations and Fed officials reiterate their dovish remarks, this could hit the dollar as bets rise over the Fed pausing hikes for the rest of 2023.
  • A strong set of economic releases may fuel speculation around the Fed raising rates one more time this year. This may boost the dollar, pulling the GBPUSD lower as a result.
  1. Bearish technical force: Death cross pending

The GBPUSD remains under pressure on the daily charts with the looming “death cross” formation signalling a steeper decline down the road. Although the currency pair experienced a technical bounce from seven-month lows, prices are still trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades to the downside.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.2310 may keep bears control with the downside momentum opening a path towards 1.2050. A breakdown below this point could trigger a selloff towards 1.1920.
  • Should prices push back above 1.2310, could see prices test 1.2430 – where the 200-day SMA resides.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: G10 currencies

By ForexTime 

  • Dollar steady ahead of FOMC minutes
  • EURUSD approaches key resistance
  • GBPUSD bulls back in town?
  • USDJPY trapped within wide range
  • USDCAD set to challenge 50-day SMA?

A tense atmosphere gripped financial markets on Wednesday amid mounting geopolitical tensions and incoming US economic data.

Although global equities rose in the previous session on dovish remarks from Fed officials, the overall uncertainty and growing caution may limit upside gains. In the commodity space, oil prices slipped after an early-week surge while gold widened the gap – rising over 0.7% as Treasury yields retreated.

Looking at currencies, the dollar remains relatively stable despite dovish Fed remarks – gaining against most G10 currencies ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes this evening.

The USD Index is wobbling above 105.80 as of writing but could see some more action in the second half of the week, especially with the U.S. inflation data scheduled for release on Thursday.

Given the chaotic cocktail of themes influencing markets, this may present some opportunities across the FX space. Here are a couple of trading setups we are keeping an eye on:

EURUSD approaches key resistance

Euro bulls could make a comeback after prices secured a daily close above the 1.0600 level. Although prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA, the bearish trend may be threatened if a solid breakout above 1.0650 is achieved. This may open a path higher toward the 50-day SMA at 1.0750 and 1.0820 – where the 200-day SMA resides. Should prices keep below 1.0600, this could trigger a decline back towards 1.0500.

GBPUSD bulls back in town?

The GBPUSD may be in the process of a trend reversal after closing above the 1.2275 level. Bulls seem to be gaining momentum on the daily timeframe observed by the six consecutive positive daily candlesticks. Should prices push beyond the 1.2275 level, this could open the doors towards 1.2340 and 1.2540, respectively. A decline back below 1.2275 could see prices slip towards 1.2160.

USDJPY trapped within range

After the aggressive reaction to the 150.00 level earlier this month, the USDJPY remains trapped within a wide range with support at 147.50 and resistance at 150.00. The currency pair remains pulled and tugged by various fundamental forces while the technicals suggest that a breakout could be on the horizon. Should prices slip below 148.40, this may trigger a selloff towards 147.50 and 146.70 – where the 50-day SMA resides. Alternatively, a strong break above 149.30 could see prices re-challenge 150.00.

USDCAD set to challenge 50-day SMA?

The USDCAD has found some support at 1.3570 after falling for four consecutive days. Bears seem to be back in the picture and could switch into a higher gear if a solid breakdown below 1.3570 is achieved. This could result in a decline towards the 50-day SMA at 1.3540 and 1.3450 – a level just below the 200-day SMA can be found. If bulls can push prices back above 1.3640, the first checkpoint can be found at 1.3690 before a possible move back towards 1.3750.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EUR/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The principal currency pair, EUR/USD, is experiencing a decline as the week commences, predominantly driven by heightened risk aversion in the market. As of Monday morning, the currency pair’s quotations are closely aligned with the 1.0552 mark.

A major contributor to the current sentiment is the escalating conflict between Arabian and Israeli forces. This geopolitical uncertainty has prompted investors to adopt a cautious stance, aiming to sidestep potential complications arising from the conflict.

Economic statistics unveiled in the US on Friday presented a mixed picture. The nation’s unemployment rate steadfastly remained at 3.8%. Contrarily, non-farm payrolls demonstrated a robust uptick, registering an increase of 336,000, substantially surpassing the anticipated 171,000. The average hourly earnings metric retained its prior growth trajectory, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2%.

The employment sector’s performance seemingly provides the US Federal Reserve with sufficient justification to proceed with interest rate hikes. However, consumer spending appears to be decelerating. Contrary to projections of an 11.7 billion USD increase, the US consumer lending volume dwindled by 15.6 billion USD.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 timeframe of the EUR/USD currency pair, the market achieved the local target of the bearish wave at the 1.0450 juncture. As of the present moment, a corrective wave culminating at 1.0599 has been realized. The currency pair is now poised for a dip to the 1.0520 level, with indications suggesting the formation of a consolidation range around this point. A breach of this range to the upside could potentially propel the currency pair to the 1.0700 mark. Once this level is attained, a subsequent bearish wave targeting 1.0140 may ensue. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers technical corroboration for this outlook, with its signal line entrenched below the zero mark, exhibiting a sharp upward trajectory, and poised for fresh peaks.

On the H1 timeframe for EUR/USD, an ascent towards 1.0599 has been charted. The market is currently undergoing a correctional phase targeting the 1.0520 mark. Upon completion of this correction, the potential for a bullish wave reaching 1.0700 emerges. This scenario gains validation from the Stochastic oscillator, which currently trades below the zero level but anticipates a climb to the 50-mark. A successful breach of this level could potentially drive the oscillator to the 80-mark.

Conclusion

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, the EUR/USD pair exhibits bearish tendencies, albeit with potential recovery. While economic statistics from the US paint a varied picture, technical indicators suggest potential upside movements post corrections. Investors and traders should remain vigilant, weighing both the geopolitical landscape and economic indicators when formulating their strategies.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Currency Speculators continue to pare Euro Bullish Bets to 49-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the New Zealand Dollar (7,531 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (4,828 contracts), Mexican Peso (3,881 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,057 contracts) and the Brazilian Real (1,079 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-22,349 contracts) with the EuroFX (-19,456 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-7,627 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-7,455 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,476 contracts) and Bitcoin (-738 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Spotlight: Large Currency Traders continue to pare Euro Bullish Bets to 49-Week Low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued weakness in the Euro Currency speculator positioning. Large speculative Euro positions fell sharply this week by over -19,000 contracts and dropped for a seventh consecutive week. Euro weekly positions have now declined in ten out of the past eleven weeks with a total decline of -99,889 contracts over these past eleven weeks.

This rapid cooling of the speculator bets has now taken the net position from a total of +178,832 contracts on July 18th to a total of +78,943 contracts through Tuesday. This brings the current level to the lowest standing in the past 49-weeks, dating back to October 25th of 2022.

Helping put a dampener on the Euro speculative position has been the likely end of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate hiking activity. The ECB recently raised their interest rate in September for a 10th straight meeting to 4 percent. However, the market expectation is that the rate hiking campaign is over for now which combined with subdued growth in the Eurozone puts a limited expectation for strength in the currency.

The Euro currency (EURUSD) spot price (vesus the US Dollar), however, did manage to eke out a small gain this week after falling for eleven straight weeks and touching the lowest level of the year under 1.0500. The EURUSD rebounded off the psychological level of 1.0500 this week and saw gains on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday to close the week right near the 1.0625 exchange rate.

 


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index42,3404118,81556-20,166441,35122
EUR702,4333978,94354-104,7525025,80920
GBP241,04562-6,6805117,54556-10,86537
JPY282,68298-113,9882117,86993-3,88146
CHF58,673100-16,7421127,36889-10,62623
CAD189,44353-40,1511738,581821,57026
AUD207,78264-81,9871497,26690-15,27915
NZD52,29162-7,6503510,71769-3,06713
MXN212,5394264,51479-67,248212,73429
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL41,0332716,63757-17,643431,00644
Bitcoin14,447651,05682-1,475041922

 


Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (82 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) currently lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (57 percent), the US Dollar Index (56 percent) and the EuroFX (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (2 percent), the Swiss Franc (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (52.9 percent)
EuroFX (53.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (62.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (51.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (66.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (2.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (5.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (10.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (31.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (17.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (24.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (35.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (15.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (78.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (76.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (57.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (55.6 percent)
Bitcoin (82.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (93.4 percent)

 

US Dollar Index & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (24 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the currencies and is the only currency with a positive 6-week trend.

The British Pound (-46 percent) leads the downside trend scores with the Swiss Franc (-35 percent), EuroFX (-34 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-26 percent) following.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (23.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (19.6 percent)
EuroFX (-34.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-26.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-24.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-17.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-35.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-14.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-19.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-30.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (-5.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-13.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (-2.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-6.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (37.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 18,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,057 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,758 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:66.319.610.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.867.37.5
– Net Position:18,815-20,1661,351
– Gross Longs:28,0578,3134,530
– Gross Shorts:9,24228,4793,179
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.3 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.343.722.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.7-23.14.0

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 78,943 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,456 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 98,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.155.311.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.970.28.1
– Net Position:78,943-104,75225,809
– Gross Longs:211,783388,47382,432
– Gross Shorts:132,840493,22556,623
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.950.020.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.035.8-25.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,680 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -22,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,669 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.756.310.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.449.014.7
– Net Position:-6,68017,545-10,865
– Gross Longs:73,911135,63724,678
– Gross Shorts:80,591118,09235,543
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):51.155.536.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.746.1-32.3

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -113,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,476 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.868.713.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.127.014.7
– Net Position:-113,988117,869-3,881
– Gross Longs:47,544194,19337,744
– Gross Shorts:161,53276,32441,625
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):2.393.245.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.16.511.0

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -16,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,627 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.065.615.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.518.933.5
– Net Position:-16,74227,368-10,626
– Gross Longs:11,14338,4689,030
– Gross Shorts:27,88511,10019,656
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.789.122.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.339.4-32.0

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -40,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,455 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -32,696 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.467.319.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.646.918.6
– Net Position:-40,15138,5811,570
– Gross Longs:21,674127,50236,889
– Gross Shorts:61,82588,92135,319
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.182.426.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.215.312.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,828 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,815 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.068.610.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.521.817.3
– Net Position:-81,98797,266-15,279
– Gross Longs:39,465142,57220,690
– Gross Shorts:121,45245,30635,969
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.790.415.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.715.4-5.3

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -7,650 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,181 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.464.44.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.043.910.6
– Net Position:-7,65010,717-3,067
– Gross Longs:15,89533,6512,497
– Gross Shorts:23,54522,9345,564
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 10.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.569.113.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.03.4-4.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 64,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,881 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.753.72.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.485.41.5
– Net Position:64,514-67,2482,734
– Gross Longs:90,848114,1855,986
– Gross Shorts:26,334181,4333,252
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.6 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.521.328.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.65.4-0.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 16,637 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,558 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:61.031.97.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.574.94.6
– Net Position:16,637-17,6431,006
– Gross Longs:25,02913,0862,888
– Gross Shorts:8,39230,7291,882
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.043.043.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.06.0-31.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -738 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,794 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:82.81.18.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:75.511.35.4
– Net Position:1,056-1,475419
– Gross Longs:11,9641611,195
– Gross Shorts:10,9081,636776
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.1 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.329.122.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.912.40.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Speculator Extremes: VIX, Heating Oil, Dow-Mini & 2-Year lead COT Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on October 3rd.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)


Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

VIX


The VIX speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The VIX speculator level is currently at a 94.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled -4.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of -34,193 net contracts this week with a change of 18,642 contract in the weekly speculator bets.


Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.


Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 93.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was -3.9 this week. The speculator position registered 38,946 net contracts this week with a weekly change of -3,181 contracts in speculator bets.


3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 87.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 14.4 this week. The overall speculator position was 292,306 net contracts this week with a change of -24,840 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is at a 86.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 5.7 this week. The overall speculator position was -5,136 net contracts this week with a change of 1 contracts in the speculator bets.


Bitcoin


The Bitcoin speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bitcoin speculator level sits at a 82.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.9 this week.

The speculator position was 1,056 net contracts this week with a change of -738 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

DowJones Mini


The DowJones Mini speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The DowJones Mini speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -42.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -32,447 net contracts this week with a change of -10,829 contracts in the speculator bets.


2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.5 this week. The speculator position was -1,278,301 net contracts this week with a change of -68,001 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -244,907 net contracts this week with a change of -46,781 contracts in the speculator bets.


Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.8 this week. The speculator position was 22,503 net contracts this week with a change of -23,985 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Corn


Finally, the Corn speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 1.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.4 this week. The speculator position was -107,544 net contracts this week with a change of 10,996 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

USDInd: Can dollar bulls sustain momentum?

By ForexTime

  • USDInd textbook uptrend approaches weekly resistance
  • 4 potential targets, if uptrend persists
  • Warning: Bearish divergence spotted
  • Bullish scenario is invalid if prices go below 105.672
  • Upcoming US jobs data may dictate USDInd’s next moves

The bulls in the USD Index on the D1 chart have been riding high.

The underlying US dollar index has climbed by 3.2% so far in 2023, with this textbook uptrend evident since mid-July as it posted consecutive higher tops and higher bottoms.

Although the bears are currently busy with a correction wave within that uptrend, the bulls seem to be gathering in numbers already.

Will they be able to sustain their momentum and start a new impulse wave?

 

Let us use the fractal nature of the market structure and look at the H4 chart to see what the market is saying.

The H4 chart reveals more details, with the most glaring being the bearish divergence between USDInd’s price chart and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) Oscillator.

  • Looking at prices, note the higher top at ”a” followed by another higher top at “b”.
  • Meanwhile on the MACD, note that the ‘d’ top is lower than the top at “c”.

This suggests that a warning light might be flashing.

However, with the price being above the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average, along with Momentum as well as the MACD Oscillator that are still in bullish territory, the uptrend may well prevail on the H4 timeframe.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level at 107.371 and dragging it to a stop loss just below a last proper swing at 105.672, four possible targets can be established:

  • Potential Target 1: 108.051
  • Potential Target 2: 108.390
  • Potential Target 3: 109.070
  • Potential Target 4: 109.919

However, take note, if the price at 105.672 is broken, this upward-looking scenario is no longer relevant.

 

From a fundamental perspective …

The incoming US jobs data could also influence this US Dollar index’s price movements going into the weekend:

  • Thursday, October 5th:
    US weekly initial jobless claims (forecast: 210k; higher than prior week’s 204k)
  • Friday, October 6th:
    US September nonfarm payrolls report (forecast: 170k; lower than August’s 187k)
    US September unemployment rate (forecast: 3.7%; lower than August’s 3.8%)
    US September average hourly earnings (forecast: rose 0.3% between August till September; higher than August’s 0.2% month-on-month)

 

Potential Scenarios

  • The USDInd may resume its uptrend if shown stronger-than-expected US jobs data, that allows the Fed to trigger another rate hike by end-2023 and keep benchmark US rates higher for longer.
  • However, the USDInd may pare recent gains if shown weaker-than-expected US jobs data, that prevents the Fed from another rate hike by end-2023 while perhaps paving the way for an eventual rate cut in the second half of 2024.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 04.10.2023 (GBPUSD, USDCHF, BRENT)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is correcting within a Triangle pattern. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line at 1.2080 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1965. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper boundary of the Cloud with the price securing above 1.2175, which will mean further growth to 1.2265. Meanwhile, the decline could be confirmed by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Triangle pattern with the price securing under 1.2040.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is testing the resistance level. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper boundary of the bullish channel at 0.9195 is expected, followed by a rise to 0.9285. An additional signal confirming the rise will be a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the lower boundary of the Cloud with the price securing under 0.9125, which will mean a further decline to 0.9035.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

Brent is declining within a bearish channel. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower boundary of the Cloud at 90.95 is expected, followed by a decline to 87.95. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a rebound from the upper boundary of the bearish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the upper boundary of the Cloud with the price securing above 92.25, which will mean further growth to 94.65. Meanwhile, the decline could be confirmed by a breakout of the lower boundary of the bullish channel with the price securing under 89.65.

BRENT

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Explainer: What happened with USDJPY?

By ForexTime 

  • Strong US JOLTS data pushes USDJPY beyond 150.00
  • Currency pair later experiences aggressive selloff
  • Weak yen supporting speculation of government intervention
  • However, market still guessing what triggered spike in yen
  • USDJPY remains bullish with 150 key level of interest

Investors were in a frenzy on Tuesday after the USDJPY collapsed almost 300 pips in a matter of minutes.

This bombshell development ignited expectations that Japan’s government may have intervened to support the currency. However, the radio silence from Japanese officials left market watchers scratching their heads, guessing whether this was the case or not.

With the USDJPY clawing back most of its losses and cautiously moving back in the direction of 150.00, most are looking for answers and questioning what to expect next.

Here, we’ll explain what happened with the USDJPY, why it’s a big deal, and how it could impact your trading.

What exactly happened?

On Tuesday, the USDJPY pushed above 150.00 after US job openings (JOLTS) unexpectedly increased in August, raising questions around more rate hikes from the Fed. After peaking at 150.16 for the first time since October 2022, prices collapsed nearly 2% to 147.33!

The context

Last week, we discussed how the USDJPY was a ticking timebomb because it was trading at levels weaker than last year when Japan intervened. There was already chatter around 150 acting as a key level that could trigger government action.

Why did it happen?

The yen has depreciated roughly 12% against the dollar year-to-date. This puts pressure on Japan’s economy by making imports for many essentials more expensive, prolonging inflation which is above the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target.

After USDJPY pushed beyond the 150 threshold, the aggressive selloff led to most speculating that Japan’s government intervened by purchasing large amounts of yen and selling dollars. This argument was supported by the fact that Yen was the sole G10 gainer vs USD yesterday.

Other possible triggers?

Markets are still guessing what exactly triggered the spike in the yen on Tuesday.

Other than possible government intervention, there is talk about a rate check by the BoJ or simply jittery markets in response to the USDJPY touching 150.00.

What is a rate check?

Rate checks are usually seen as a strong warning of potential currency intervention. This is when central bank officials call dealers and ask for buying and selling rates for the yen. The BoJ is said to have done this 8 days before intervening back in September 2022.

What could happen next?

Well, the good news is that investors will know whether Japan intervened and, if so, how much it spent at the end of this month when the Ministry of Finance releases monthly intervention data.

In the meantime, yen volatility is likely to remain a major theme – especially if prices push back towards the psychological 150.00 point.

Will the USDJPY keep pushing higher?

Focusing on the fundamental outlook, the threat of intervention around the 150.0 level could keep USDJPY bulls meek. Especially after the aggressive selloff witnessed in the previous session.

However, expectations around US interest rates staying higher for longer while the BoJ maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy could keep the USDJPY buoyed. This standoff between conflicting forces could place the currency pair on a rollercoaster ride.

Technical outlook

The USDJPY remains firmly bullish on the daily charts despite the aggressive selloff on Tuesday. Bulls remain in a position of power above the 147.50 level. A strong daily close above 150.00 could open a path towards 151.94. Should prices slip below 147.50, a decline towards 146.70 and 144.90 could be on the cards.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Trade Of The Week: AUDNZD enters breakout mode

By ForexTime

  • AUDNZD has kicked of Q4 breaching 1.0720 support
  • Antipodean central bank decisions could move AUDNZD further
  • Neither RBA nor RBNZ expected to raise interest rates
  • However, fresh insight on future policy moves could spark volatility
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting near oversold territory

A central bank mashup featuring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) could trigger a significant move in the AUDNZD this week.

Since late June 2023, the currency pair has been trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with support around 1.0720 and resistance at 1.0920. However, the breakdown below key support this morning could be an early indication that a significant move may be on the horizon.

Neither the RBA nor the RBNZ are expected to raise interest rates this week. However, any fresh clues on future monetary policy moves could inject both the aussie and kiwi with fresh volatility.

But before we unpack how these antipodean central bank decisions could influence the AUDNZD, it is worth keeping in mind that the aussie has weakened against most G10 currencies year-to-date.

A similar theme was seen in the New Zealand dollar which depreciated across the G10 space.

Taking a brief look at the technical picture, prices remain trapped within a range on the weekly charts with key support at 1.0580 and resistance at 1.1050.

Here are 3 reasons why we could see some action on the AUDNZD this week:

  1. RBA rate decision on Tuesday 3rd October

The RBA’s first meeting under new Governor Michele Bullock is widely expected to conclude with interest rates left unchanged at 4.1%.

However, traders are still pricing in a 52 % probability of a 25-basis point hike by the end of 2023. Given how economic data since September has been mixed, investors will be paying very close attention to what the new RBA governor has to say.

  • Any hints from Bullock around the central bank keeping rates on hold could weaken the Aussie, pulling the AUDNZD lower as a result.
  • Should Bullock strike a hawkish note and signal another hike down the line, the Aussie may receive a boost – pushing the AUDNZD higher.
  1. RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday 4th October

Markets expect the RBNZ to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.5% this week.

Although economic growth has surprised to the upside, confidence has been hit by rising oil prices. The threat of rising inflationary pressures may force the central bank to maintain a hawkish stance with traders currently pricing in a 58% of a 25-basis point rate hike by the end of 2023.

  • The kiwi could receive a boost if the RBNZ strikes a hawkish note and hints at one more hike in 2023 – dragging the AUDNZD lower as the NZD strengthens.
  • Any sense of caution or whiff of doves during the policy meeting is likely to weaken the NZD, pushing the AUDNZD higher as a result.
  1. Technical forces: breakout

After swinging within a wide range since late June, the AUDNZD experienced a breakdown this morning as prices cut below the 1.0720 support.

Prices are trading below the 50, 100, and 200 day SMA but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flirting near oversold territory.

  • Sustained weakness below 1.0720 may open a path towards 1.0580 and 1.0470.
  • Should 1.0720 prove to be reliable support, this could trigger a rebound towards  the 200-day SMA at 1.0820 before re-testing resistance a 1.0920.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com