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Week Ahead: Will EURUSD slip below 1.0670?

By ForexTime 

Get ready for another wild week for global financial markets thanks to key economic data releases and high-risk events!

Inflation data from the largest economy in the world will be in focus along with a rate decision from the ECB.

But before we identify what asset to keep an eye on, here’s a rundown of the scheduled data and events for the upcoming week:

Monday, September 11

  • CNH: China aggregate financing
  • EUR: EU releases updated economic forecasts
  • GBP: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, September 12

  • AUD: Australia consumer confidence
  • EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment

Wednesday, September 13

  • EUR: Eurozone industrial production
  • JPY: Japan PPI
  • GBP: UK industrial production
  • USD: US August CPI

Thursday, September 14

  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • EUR: ECB rate decision
  • JPY: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
  • USD: US retail sales, PPI, initial jobless claims

Friday, September 15

  • CNH: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production
  • CAD: Canada existing home sales
  • USD: Industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

We could see some thrilling trading opportunities as high-risk events unfold across financial markets. However, all eyes will be on the world’s most popular traded currency which is primed to be heavily influenced by the ECB rate decision and key US reports.

Before we dissect the factors that could trigger a significant move in the EURUSD, it’s worth noting that prices remain heavily bearish on the H4 charts. The euro has shed over 1% against the dollar since the start of September with prices approaching key support at 1.0670. The events in the upcoming week may dictate whether prices experience a breakdown or rebound.

Here are 3 reasons why the EURUSD has our attention:

  1. ECB meeting

The ECB rate decision on Thursday, September 14 is expected to be a close call.

Markets seem to be betting against the European Central Bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week with traders currently pricing in a 35% probability. This jumps to 58% by October and 70% by December.

Although inflation remains sticky, economic data across the region continues to disappoint which has raised questions around how much headroom the ECB has left to keep raising rates. However, ECB policymakers have warned investors that the decision to hike rates was still up in the air. Given how this meeting will be complemented with fresh projections for inflation and GDP, the EURUSD could be thrown on a rollercoaster ride.

  • The euro could push higher if the ECB moves ahead with a rate hike, but gains may be capped if the central bank signals that this will be the final one in 2023.
  • A cautious-sounding ECB that leaves rates unchanged and provides little detail over what its next steps will be may send the euro tumbling.
  • We could see a mixed reaction on the euro if the ECB leaves rates unchanged but signals a possible hike at its next meeting.
  1. Top-tier US data dump

Throughout the week, investors will be dished out key US economic reports which could impact the EURUSD.

But it will be wise to keep a close eye on the latest US inflation and retail sales figures which could impact Fed hike expectations.

August’s CPI report will be published on Wednesday, September 13th, and is expected to illustrate a mixed picture. While the headline print is forecast to rise, the core CPI is seen moderating month-on-month and even falling to 4.3% year-on-year versus the 4.7% prior. Regarding US retail sales, this is projected to rise 0.1% versus the prior 0.7%. Ultimately, more signs of cooling inflationary pressures and disappointing economic data may support the argument that the Fed has already ended its hiking cycle.

  • Should the US inflation report and overall US economic data print below market expectations, this may weaken the dollar – pushing the EURUSD higher.
  • If the incoming US inflation prints above market forecasts and overall US economic data prints above expectations, the dollar could receive a boost – dragging the EURUSD lower.
  1. Bearish technical forces

Since conquering the 1.0800 support level, euro bears have stepped into higher gear with prices slowly approaching the 1.0670 support level.

The EURUSD is heavily bearish on the daily charts with the candlesticks trading below the 50,100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are oversold on the daily timeframe.

  • A breakdown could be on the horizon with a solid close below 1.0670 opening a path towards levels not seen since March 2023 at 1.0520.
  • Should 1.0670 prove to be reliable support, the EURUSD may rebound back towards 1.0800 – a level below the 200-day SMA.

Zooming out on the weekly charts, we see a similar picture with bears eyeing the 1.0670 level. A solid weekly close below this point may see prices test 1.0520 and 1.0310, respectively. If bulls can bounce back, prices may re-test 1.0900 and 1.1180, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

JPY devaluation persists. Overview for 07.09.2023

By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, remains weak. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 147.52.

From January this year until now, the yen has depreciated by more than 12%.

The US Dollar easily gains ground against the JPY without encountering resistance. When might the yen have a chance for recovery? This depends on the Bank of Japan making a resolute decision to abandon its ultra-soft monetary policy.

On the other hand, it is essential for the US dollar to become less enticing to buyers. For this to occur, the prospects for the US economy must become less attractive from the perspective of bullish investors. Visible signs of a slowdown in the US economy, such as a slight cooling in the job market or the potential for lower interest rates, are not enough to weaken the dollar.

Domestic data in Japan points to a deteriorating situation. Household spending in July declined by 2.7% m/m, contrary to the forecast of 0.7% growth and a previous rise of 0.9%. On an annual basis, the indicator dropped by 5.0%, which is twice as weak as expected.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.09.07

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0722
  • Prev Close: 1.0726
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.04 %

The ECB’s hawkish comments on Wednesday helped keep the Euro from falling too much. Peter Kažimír, a representative of the ECB Governing Council, said that the ECB needs to raise interest rates again to make sure inflation returns to 2%, and a rate hike in September is preferable to a later increase. Another representative of the ECB Governing Council, Klaas Knot, also warned that markets may be underestimating the likelihood of the ECB raising rates next week.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0714, 1.0659
  • Resistance levels: 1.0767, 1.0781, 1.0827, 1.0842, 1.0881, 1.0943, 1.1004

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. The price has reached the daily support level and is now forming a flat accumulation. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the selling pressure is weak, while the divergence has increased. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for from the support level of 1.0714 but with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell traders can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0767 or 1.0781 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative. The reverse initiative means the sellers’ reaction in the form of an engulfing candlestick or when a pin bar is formed.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0893 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.09.07:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 23:55 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2564
  • Prev Close: 1.2747 1.2506
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

The British pound declined sharply against the dollar yesterday and fell to a three-month low. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested at a hearing before the Senate that UK interest rates may not need to be raised again, saying that a “marked” decline in inflation is likely this year and that monetary policy is probably “near the top of the cycle.” This is extremely negative for the British currency, as prior to the hearing, analysts were expecting at least two rate hikes from the Bank of England at 0.25%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2491, 1.2458, 1.2307
  • Resistance levels: 1.2549, 1.2611, 1.2659, 1.2712, 1.2733, 1.2746, 1.2764

According to technical analysis, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound reached the daily support level, but the reaction of buyers is weak. Now, the price is forming a flat accumulation, and there is a high probability of a price decline to the 1.2458 level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but with signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.2491 or 1.2458 but with additional confirmation on the lower time frames in the form of impulse initiative of buyers. Sell trades are best considered from the resistance level of 1.2549 but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2642 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 147.64
  • Prev Close: 147.65
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

Japan’s chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, warned that Tokyo sees evidence of unwanted movements in the currency market and claims that fundamentals cannot explain such movements. The well-known ‘carry trade,’ utilizing the interest rate differential between the two currencies, has been going on for a long time, with markets still anticipating the likelihood of another 25bp Fed rate hike before the end of the rate hike cycle. Warnings from Tokyo suggest possible intervention. Analysts see the 150 mark as a level above which the BoJ could intervene. The USD/JPY price has already passed the first intervention level seen in 2022, and the second level is below 152.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 147.41,147.03, 146.23, 145.69, 145.39, 145.00
  • Resistance levels: 147.81, 148.80

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price starts to form a wide volatile corridor with the boundaries of 147.03-147.71. At the same time, buyers’ pressure prevails inside the accumulation. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but without signs of bullish pressure. Buying trades should be sought on intraday time frames after a pullback to the support level of 147.41. But it should be understood that it will be an entry in the middle of the accumulation. Such trades are considered highly risky. In case of a stronger decline, expect the price at the 147.03 support level. Sell trades can be considered from the 147.81 resistance level but with confirmation in the form of a false breakout and change of structure on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support level of 145.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1925.84
  • Prev Close: 1916.63
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.47 %

Precious metals prices closed moderately lower on Wednesday, with gold falling to a one-week low and silver to a 2-week low. The dollar index rally to a 5-month high on Wednesday was bearish for metals. In addition, the rise in global bond yields on Wednesday had a negative impact on precious metals prices. The US economic news on Wednesday supported the dollar after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for August unexpectedly increased by 1.8 to the maximum for 6 months value of 54.5.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1914.37, 1903.87, 1893.80
  • Resistance levels: 1934.71, 1941.79, 1947.81, 1961.06

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages for the third consecutive session and approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator remains in the negative zone, but the divergence towards buying is increasing. Under these market conditions, buy trades can be considered after an impulsive breakout of the downtrend line. Sell trades are better to look for from the resistance level of 1928.63 or 1934.63 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and change of structure on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the support level of 1914.37, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2023.09.07:
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 23:55 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.09.07

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX Mashup

By ForexTime 

Ongoing concerns over China’s economic growth have sent investors rushing toward the dollar with growing bets around US interest rates staying higher for longer supporting upside gains!

The USD Index is lingering around levels not seen in six months and could push higher thanks to technical and fundamental forces. As the dollar continues to flex its muscles, this could mean more pain for G10 currencies which have all depreciated since the start of the week.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on:

Dollar approaches 105.00

The USD Index remains firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading well above the 50,100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. A solid breakout above 105.00 could open the doors to levels not seen since March 2023 above 105.80. Should 105.00 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline back towards 104.10 and the 200-day SMA could be on the cards.

EURUSD bears in power

After cutting through the 1.0800 support level, euro bears were given the green light to switch into a higher gear. Prices are heavily bearish on the daily charts with the negative momentum opening a potential path towards 1.0670 – a level not hit since June 2023. For bulls to jump back into the game, a solid move back above 1.0800 needs to be achieved. Given how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold regions, a rebound should not be ruled out.

GBPUSD ready to challenge 200-day SMA?

The recent breakdown below 1.2600 may inspire a further selloff towards the 200-day SMA at 1.2430. Technical indicators remain in favour of bears with prices trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Should prices push back above 1.2600, the GBPUSD may find itself trapped within the previous range with resistance around 1.2800.

AUDUSD tests key support

In our week ahead report last Friday we questioned whether the AUDUSD would experience a double-bottom bounce. Despite prices later tumbling on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged, the 0.6378 support continues to fend off bears. Should this level hold, prices may rebound back towards 0.6500. Alternatively, a selloff below 0.6378 could see a decline towards 0.6300.

USDJPY breakout strengthens bulls

After breaking and securing a daily close above the 146.70 resistance yesterday, the USDJPY could see further upside from a technical perspective. The next key level of interest can be found at 149.00. A move back below 146.70 may open a path back towards 144.90.

USDCAD gearing for more upside?

With the Bank of Canada rate decision around the corner, the USDCAD could see some heightened volatility today. It may be wise to keep a close eye on the 1.3650 resistance which has held since May 2023. A solid break above this point could trigger a further incline towards 1.3740. Any signs of weakness that take prices away from 1.3650 could invite bears to target 1.3500.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

RoboForex Ltd Clinches the Best Trading Conditions Accolade at the Prestigious International Business Magazine Awards

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About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

About International Business Magazine Awards

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Dollar braces for data-heavy week

By ForexTime

Chinese stocks paved the way higher for Asian shares on Tuesday as optimism from China’s measures to cut stamp duty boosted risk appetite. European futures are pointing to a positive open with the UK returning from a day’s holiday ahead of a data-heavy week for markets. In the commodity space, gold is modestly higher this morning with bulls drawing strength from a softer dollar and falling Treasury yields. Oil markets are flat, waiting for the next fundamental spark as supply concerns counter worries over demand.

US PCE Inflation and NFP in focus

The US dollar was choppy on Tuesday as investors watched on the sidelines ahead of a slew of key US economic releases over the next few days.

Due to the Federal Reserve’s current data dependent stance, every release of US economic data could play a critical role in determining whether the Fed raises rates again in 2023. As a result, close attention will be paid to upcoming releases such as August consumer confidence, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), and weekly initial jobless claims.

However, the potential market shakers could be Thursday’s PCE inflation data and the NFP report on Friday. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be closely scrutinised by investors for more signs of inflationary pressures cooling. Regarding the August NFP report, markets expect the US economy to have added 170,000 jobs in August with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%. Ultimately, a strong set of economic releases may strengthen the argument around the Fed raising rates one more time this year, especially after Powell’s hawkish remarks last Friday.

Regarding the dollar, it has appreciated against every G10 currency this month with the USD Index trading around 104.00 as of writing. Although the trend is bullish on the daily charts, there are early signs of exhaustion with a break under 103.30 encouraging bears to jump back into the scene. Should 104.00 prove to be reliable support, prices could push back above 104.50, rising towards levels not seen since March around 105.00.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EUR/USD Consolidates Around 1.0810 as Powell’s Speech Influences Market Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair is entering the final week of August in a phase of consolidation around the 1.0810 level. This follows a speech by Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, during the recent Jackson Hole Symposium in the US. Powell highlighted the Fed’s commitment to raising interest rates continuously to maintain elevated levels of inflation, while also considering the effectiveness of measures already in place.

As a result, the Federal Reserve plans to make necessary interest rate adjustments and maintain a stringent monetary policy until it successfully manages price control.

With a relatively quiet macroeconomic calendar at the beginning of the week, the market is relying on existing factors to determine direction.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a decline to 1.0765, followed by a corrective structure forming up to 1.0816. Once this correction is complete, there is potential for the decline to continue to 1.0740, a local target. The scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and pointed downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has undergone a correction to 1.0816, possibly leading to the formation of a consolidation range below that level. If the price breaks out of this range in a downward direction, a new wave of decline to 1.0740 could be formed. This scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is currently above 80, indicating a potential drop to 50. A break of this level could open the door to a decline towards 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Week Ahead: Can EURUSD’s uptrend stay intact?

By ForexTime

Firstly, please note that this Week Ahead preview is being written before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly-anticipated speech out of the Jackson Hole Economic symposium due later today (Friday, August 25th).

Still, the astute trader and investor will already be casting a glance at what’s in store post-Jackson Hole.

The monthly US jobs report, typically released on the first Friday of every month, is set to hog the limelight next week.

This tier-1 data out of the world’s largest economy will arrive at the tail end of a week that also features these other major economic data releases and events:

Monday, August 28

  • AUD: Australia July retail sales
  • USD: US August manufacturing activity
  • UK markets closed

Tuesday, August 29

  • JPY: Japan July unemployment
  • USD: US August consumer confidence

Wednesday, August 30

  • AUD: Australia July CPI
  • EUR: Germany August CPI; Eurozone August economic confidence
  • USD: US 2Q GDP (2nd estimate)

Thursday, August 31

  • JPY: Japan July retail sales, industrial production
  • CNH: China August manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs
  • EUR: Eurozone August CPI; July unemployment rate; ECB meeting minutes
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims; July PCE deflator, personal income and spending

Friday, September 1

  • CNH: China Caixin August manufacturing PMI
  • EUR: Eurozone August manufacturing PMI (final)
  • GBP: UK August manufacturing PMI (final)
  • CAD: Canada 2Q GDP
  • USD: US August nonfarm payrolls
  • USD: US August ISM manufacturing

 

EURUSD traders will be keen to find out how the official prints for the following data releases will match up with current market forecasts as stated below:

1) Wednesday, Aug 30: Germany August consumer price index (CPI)

  • Year-on-year CPI (August 2023 vs. August 2022): 6%
  • Month-on-month CPI (August 2023 vs. July 2023): 0.2%

If so, both prints would mark a slight easing from July’s CPI figures.

Note that Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, and its CPI prints tend to front-run the broader Eurozone’s CPI release.

 

2) Thursday, Aug 31: Eurozone August CPI

  • Year-on-year CPI: 5%
  • Month-on-month CPI (August 2023 vs. July 2023): 0.3%
  • Year-on-year core CPI (excluding food and energy prices): 5.3%

While such numbers would mark a moderating in inflation, 5% CPI is still noticeably higher than the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target, which could warrant more rate hikes.

 

3) Thursday, Aug 31: Eurozone July unemployment rate (forecast = 6.4%)

If so, this would match the unemployment rate in June.

 

Still, ECB policymakers will only be too aware of the deteriorating economy.

The Eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors each posted sub-50 PMI readings this past Wednesday (August 23rd).

When the PMI number is below 50, that means the sector is experiencing contracting conditions.

Such concerning figures prompted markets to pare down their expectations for another 25-basis point hike by the ECB before 2023 is over.

Those odds have been slashed from 78% this time last week, now down to a 57%.

Hence, the ECB meeting minutes due to be released on August 31 may already be dated, seeing as that July meeting was held prior to releases of the above-listed economic data.

 

Then, on the USD side of the equation …

Markets will want to know if the US labour market remains resilient, as evidenced by the highly-anticipated US jobs report, despite the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes since 2022.

 

4) Friday, Sept 1: US August jobs report

  • Change in nonfarm payrolls: +168,000

If so, that would be the fewest number of new jobs added in a month since December 2019.

  • Unemployment rate: 3.5%

If so, this would match July’s unemployment rate.

  • Average hourly earnings: 4.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month

If so, that would be a slick tick down of 10 basis points respectively from July’s figures.

 

Markets currently place a 55% chance that the Fed will trigger a 25-basis point hike in November, after pausing at its September policy meeting.

Of course, Chair Powell’s commentary out of Jackson Hole could significantly alter that perception.

Still, with the Fed already pledging to remain “data dependent”, a set of better-than-expected jobs data on September 1st could embolden the FOMC hawks (voting officials at the Federal Reserve who want to hike US rates further), and boost the US dollar along the way.

 

 

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

Ultimately, markets are set to reward the currency of the economy that can better handle another rate hike from its central bank.

  • EURUSD could move higher if the Eurozone’s CPI comes in higher than expected, while the US jobs market appears to be waning.

  • EURUSD could move lower on the stronger US dollar if the Eurozone’s CPI comes in lower than expected, and/or a higher-than-expected unemployment rate, along with a US jobs market that’s still resilient.

 

 

From a technical perspective …

To be fair, EURUSD is still adhering to a uptrend, maintaining a series of higher highs and higher lows so far this year.

However, EURUSD is now caught up in its 3rd “correction” wave on the daily timeframe so far this year.

Each wave has marked a decline of over 4%, with the latest declines commencing from its July 18th intraday peak extending past 4.4% at the time of writing.

And there are other bearish signs in play currently for EURUSD:

  • now trading below the widely-watched 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since end-November 2022.
  • 21-day SMA has crossed below its longer-term 100-day counterpart.

 

Currently, Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 73% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.0661 – 1.0920 range over the next one week

(forecast is prior to Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech)

 

Here are some key levels to look out for:

POTENTIAL SUPPORT

  • 1.0766: lower trendline of uptrend/mid-March peaks
  • 1.068 region: resistance turn support zone since December
  • 1.0661 – 1.06352: lower bound of Bloomberg model forecasted range / end-May cycle low

 

POTENTIAL RESISTANCE

  • 200-day SMA
  • 1.08353/37: lows in end-June/early July
  • 1.0920: upper bound of Bloomberg model forecasted range, also with 100-day and 21-day SMAs lurking nearby

 

Brace for technical rebound?

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for the world’s most-traded FX pair is now flirting with the 30 mark, which denotes oversold levels.

Note that the bottom of the prior 2 “correction” waves have also coincided with such levels for the RSI.

Of course, fundamental factors surrounding the ECB vs. Fed’s next policy moves would greatly dictate whether EURUSD’s uptrend will be upended as we head into September.

Still, a technical rebound may be on the cards over the near term to perhaps offer some relief for euro bulls.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

GBPUSD drops after poor UK PMIs

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD sinks after UK PMIs came in below expectations
  • Bank of England rate hikes are taking toll on UK economy
  • Bloomberg model: GBPUSD likely to trade between 1.2545 – 1.2828 into next week
  • Friday’s speech by Fed Chair Powell may herald more volatility for GBPUSD

The Pound is the worst-performing G10 currency against the dollar today.

The UK’s preliminary PMIs (purchasing manager index) for August showed contracting conditions across both manufacturing and services in the private sector.

With the respective PMIs registering readings below the 50 threshold that differentiates contraction (PMI below 50) and expansion (PMI above 50) …

It’s clear that the Bank of England’s aggressive rate hikes are taking a toll on the UK economy.

Today’s PMI numbers have also prompted markets to dial down bets for a further 75-basis points in rate hikes out of the Bank of England which had been fully priced in prior to today’s PMI releases.

At the time of writing, markets are only pricing in a 54% chance that the BOE can raise its benchmark rate by a further 75bps between now and Q1 2024.

Such soured sentiment surrounding the UK economy and the BOE’s future policy moves has clearly weighed on GBPUSD, forcing cable to unwind some of its recent gains.

 

GBP still among best G10 performers YTD

Though for proper context, Sterling continues to compete with the Swiss Franc for the title of best-performing G10 currency against the US dollar on a year-to-date basis.

The CHF and GBP can still boast of a 5% climb respectively against the greenback so far in 2023.

 

From a technical perspective:

GBPUSD bulls have been thwarted by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) of late. The 38.2% Fibonacci level from this FX pair’s June 2021 – September 2022 plummet is also further exerting resistance.

To the downside, the 1.26200 region has been offering support for GBPUSD (nicknamed “cable”) since end-June, with the 100-day SMA also potentially offering further support nearby.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2545 – 1.2828 range over the next one week.

 

Astute traders would be aware that this time period also includes Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s highly-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday, as well as the UK’s August consumer confidence data.

Of those two events, Chair Powell’s comments harbours the much greater potential to sway the US dollar, and by extension, GBPUSD as well as the rest of the FX world before the weekend.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound, near 16-Year Highs

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 15th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (10,052 contracts) with the British Pound (3,968 contracts), US Dollar Index (2,367 contracts), Japanese Yen (2,219 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,445 contracts) and Bitcoin (437 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,788 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (-10,205 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-4,564 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,068 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,628 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

British Pound Sterling Speculator Bets rebound this week

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s rebound and the overall strength in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions rose this week by almost +4,000 contracts and turned around a three-week streak of declines.

The Sterling speculative level has been on the move higher recently and is at its strongest levels in years with the average contract level of the past ten weeks right around +50,000 contracts. On July 18th, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts) ascended to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years.

The Pound’s positioning has been helped out by continued high inflation in the United Kingdom which brings forecasts for higher interest rates. The UK consumer inflation numbers for July came in at 6.8 percent with a core inflation reading of 6.9 percent. The Bank of England has boosted the interest rate to combat inflation for fourteen consecutive meetings and brought the rate to 5.25 percent at it’s last meeting which is the highest since 2008. The BOE may need to further push the rate higher to bring inflation back down to reasonable levels which in turn can provide the UK currency with an interest rate differential advantage against other currencies.

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in an uptrend over recent months with the exchange rate hitting over 1.3000 in July. Since that 2023 high, the Sterling has cooled off some but remains over the psychologically significant 1.2500 exchange rate.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-15-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index26,95414,99133-6,048661,05723
EUR760,23369159,86380-205,2842145,42151
GBP215,3404650,98891-60,188129,20076
JPY247,95475-80,9612290,49780-9,53634
CHF42,79445-4,007464,20049-19357
CAD157,82732-11,4114413,76966-2,35818
AUD204,45891-53,3973565,25868-11,86124
NZD46,78153-2,436474,96958-2,53320
MXN228,9844882,02389-85,227113,20432
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL42,0312823,47566-25,216341,74158
Bitcoin15,43273-7126514069829

 


Strength Scores led by British Pound & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the British Pound (91 percent), the Mexican Peso (89 percent) and the EuroFX (80 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (33 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength scores are the Australian Dollar (35 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (44 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (33.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.3 percent)
EuroFX (80.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (76.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (91.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (88.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (20.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (35.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (47.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (52.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (89.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (71.4 percent)
Bitcoin (64.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (56.9 percent)

 

Bitcoin & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Bitcoin (24 percent) and the Japanese Yen (22 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (7 percent) and the British Pound (1 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Dollar Index (-16 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-15 percent), Brazilian Real (-10 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-15.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-20.6 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (0.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-3.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (21.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (17.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-1.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-14.9 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (1.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-8.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (-9.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (23.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,367 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.85.816.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.328.212.4
– Net Position:4,991-6,0481,057
– Gross Longs:19,6171,5564,404
– Gross Shorts:14,6267,6043,347
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.2 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.366.123.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.616.7-14.1

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 159,863 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 10,052 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 149,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.655.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.682.46.0
– Net Position:159,863-205,28445,421
– Gross Longs:232,466420,94290,895
– Gross Shorts:72,603626,22645,474
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.021.151.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-5.3-1.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,968 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,020 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.036.016.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.463.911.8
– Net Position:50,988-60,1889,200
– Gross Longs:90,54177,49634,690
– Gross Shorts:39,553137,68425,490
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.6 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):91.212.076.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.9-8.2

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -80,961 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,180 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.070.813.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.734.317.6
– Net Position:-80,96190,497-9,536
– Gross Longs:34,789175,63634,192
– Gross Shorts:115,75085,13943,728
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.979.834.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.9-17.3-2.9

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,007 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,445 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,452 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.344.035.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.734.136.1
– Net Position:-4,0074,200-193
– Gross Longs:8,69318,81215,262
– Gross Shorts:12,70014,61215,455
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.549.356.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.6-5.913.4

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -11,411 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -623 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.554.319.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.745.620.8
– Net Position:-11,41113,769-2,358
– Gross Longs:37,11285,77430,496
– Gross Shorts:48,52372,00532,854
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.965.517.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.922.2-37.0

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,192 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.653.410.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:59.721.415.8
– Net Position:-53,39765,258-11,861
– Gross Longs:68,623109,11020,392
– Gross Shorts:122,02043,85232,253
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.367.623.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.210.4-12.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,436 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,068 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -368 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.846.66.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.036.011.7
– Net Position:-2,4364,969-2,533
– Gross Longs:21,91021,7952,942
– Gross Shorts:24,34616,8265,475
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.3 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.058.219.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.98.2-2.3

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 82,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 83,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:47.847.43.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.984.62.2
– Net Position:82,023-85,2273,204
– Gross Longs:109,340108,5968,197
– Gross Shorts:27,317193,8234,993
– Long to Short Ratio:4.0 to 10.6 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):89.210.631.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.18.4-6.1

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,475 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.823.99.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.083.94.8
– Net Position:23,475-25,2161,741
– Gross Longs:27,67610,0653,774
– Gross Shorts:4,20135,2812,033
– Long to Short Ratio:6.6 to 10.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.633.657.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.72.743.0

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.63.98.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.33.83.9
– Net Position:-71214698
– Gross Longs:11,9816021,299
– Gross Shorts:12,693588601
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.556.928.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.8-43.1-5.6

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.