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Technical Analysis & Forecast 09.11.2023

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has completed a declining impulse to 1.0658, correcting to 1.0714 today. An extension of the correction to 1.0725 is not excluded. Next, the declining wave could continue to 1.0630. With a downward breakout of this level, the potential for a wave to 1.0540 might open. This is a local target.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has performed a declining impulse to 1.2245, correcting to 1.2300 today. A new link of growth to 1.2333 might develop later. Next, a new wave of decline to 1.2222 is expected to begin. If this level breaks downwards, the potential for a wave to 1.2073 could open. This is a local target.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has completed a wave of growth to 151.04. Today the quotes could correct to 150.05. Next, a new wave of growth to 151.44 might begin, opening the potential for 152.15 once the 151.44 level breaks upwards.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed a wave of growth to 0.9030, and a link of decline to 0.8970 is expected today. Practically, a consolidation range is forming at these levels. With an escape from this range downwards, a decline to 0.8918 might follow. And with an escape upwards, the potential for a rising wave to 0.9133 might open.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD continues developing a wave of decline to 0.6383. Once this level is reached, a link of correction to 0.6450 is not excluded, followed by a decline to 0.6333. This is a local target.

BRENT

Brent has completed a declining wave to 79.11. Practically, the potential of the declining wave has expired. A consolidation range could form above the 79.11 level today. With an escape upwards, the potential for a wave of growth to 85.75 could open. This is the first target.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold continues developing a consolidation range around 1961.55. With an escape downwards, the potential for a declining wave to 1920.00 might open. Next, a link of correction to 1960.00 is expected (with a test from below), followed by a decline to 1913.50. This is the first target.

S&P 500

The stock index has completed a declining impulse to 4362.2, correcting to 4390.0 today. Next, a wave of decline to 4330.3 is expected, from where the trend could continue to 4242.0. This is the first target.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Nov

EURUSD Sustains Strength Near Six-Week Highs

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair remains steadfast near 1.0710 on Tuesday, maintaining proximity to the six-week highs set the previous day.

The U.S. dollar has seen a tempered performance, influenced by recent U.S. labor market statistics for October and the resultant stock market adjustments. The data pointed to pockets of weakness in the employment sector, leading investors to infer that the cooling may be an effect of tighter credit and monetary policies. Consequently, there has been a recalibration of expectations regarding the trajectory of future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

In detail, the U.S. unemployment rate edged up to 3.9%, slightly higher than the previous 3.8%. Nonfarm payrolls showed an increase of 150 thousand, which was shy of the forecasted 178 thousand. Additionally, the average wage increment was a modest 0.2% month-over-month, missing the anticipated mark.

Market sentiment now appears to lean towards the belief that the current interest rates may represent the zenith of the present monetary tightening cycle.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart for EUR/USD, the currency pair has attained the correctional target at 1.0755. The trend now seems to be tilting downwards, with a trajectory set towards the 1.0655 level. A consolidation phase around this mark is probable. A break below this consolidation could signal a further decline to 1.0633, and potentially, should this support give way, a fall to 1.0515 could be on the horizon. The MACD indicator suggests a peak formation, with its signal line at the highs and anticipating a downturn.

The H1 chart reveals a continuation of the downward wave targeting 1.0655. Should the pair touch this level, a corrective move upwards to around 1.0700 might ensue. Subsequent to this correction, the market may witness a renewed descent towards 1.0633. The Stochastic oscillator provides technical affirmation for this bearish outlook, with its signal line dropping below 50 and aiming for the 20 level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Nov

Currency Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 31st and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (7,971 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (4,161 contracts), Swiss Franc (185 contracts), the Euro (136 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (34 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-6,564 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-4,219 contracts), the British Pound (-1,735 contracts), Bitcoin (-1,292 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-693 contracts) the US Dollar Index (-686 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators push Australian Dollar bets higher as RBA possibly to raise rate

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the boost in the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative Aussie currency positions gained this week by almost +8,000 net contracts, the largest weekly gain in six weeks. This improved sentiment has pushed the speculators bets higher for the fourth time out of the past six weeks.

The overall Aussie speculator positioning has been consistently bearish since dropping from a net bullish position to a net bearish position on May 25th of 2021. This week marks the 128th consecutive week of bearish speculator positions with the most bearish level being seen on September 19th at a total of -96,946 contracts.

There is a chance that the worst of the positioning for the AUD has been seen because of a possible divergence in central bank interest rate moves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to raise their benchmark rate (currently at 4.15 percent) in the next policy meeting on November 7th to combat stubborn inflation that has surpassed expectations of a faster decline.

The US Federal Reserve, meanwhile, held its own rate policy steady at the most recent meeting and the current market expectation (95 percent in CME FedWatch Tool) is for the Fed to hold again at the December 13th meeting.

The Australian dollar (versus the US Dollar) saw a strong rise this week and just got over the 0.6500 psychological level to close out the week. The AUD has been in a long downtrend since reaching a high in 2021 near 0.80 exchange rate and has a long ways to go for a turnaround but so far, the currency has seen strong support at 0.6300 and has been able to avoid dropping to the 2022 lows.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-31-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,803	42	18,985	57	-20,096	44	1,111	19
EUR	694,962	31	85,389	57	-109,031	48	23,642	17
GBP	229,991	55	-20,371	42	34,154	65	-13,783	31
JPY	277,272	94	-103,848	8	107,566	88	-3,718	46
CHF	56,353	83	-14,910	16	25,967	87	-11,057	21
CAD	198,528	60	-49,332	9	56,052	94	-6,720	8
AUD	196,866	55	-75,110	20	86,432	82	-11,322	25
NZD	57,676	75	-12,817	22	16,236	82	-3,419	9
MXN	199,078	37	31,297	58	-33,883	41	2,586	28
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	67,068	63	9,346	47	-11,022	52	1,676	50
Bitcoin	19,603	99	-1,746	40	903	0	843	32

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso, Euro & US Dollar Index

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (58 percent), the Euro (57 percent) and the US Dollar Index (57 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Canadian Dollar (9 percent) and the Swiss Franc (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.7 percent)
EuroFX (56.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (41.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (42.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (10.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (8.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (12.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (58.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (62.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (46.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (41.2 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (59.6 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (22 percent) and the Australian Dollar (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-50 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-38 percent), the Mexican Peso (-20 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-19 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (22.7 percent)
EuroFX (-7.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-11.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-37.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-45.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-1.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-0.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-19.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-1.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-3.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (22.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-17.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-4.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-10.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-50.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-40.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,985 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -686 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.4	22.6	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	69.5	7.8
– Net Position:	18,985	-20,096	1,111
– Gross Longs:	27,571	9,671	4,441
– Gross Shorts:	8,586	29,767	3,330
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.6	43.9	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.6	-4.4	-7.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 85,389 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.3	56.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.1	72.3	8.0
– Net Position:	85,389	-109,031	23,642
– Gross Longs:	210,834	393,348	79,333
– Gross Shorts:	125,445	502,379	55,691
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.7	48.4	16.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.1	7.4	-5.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,371 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,636 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.7	59.5	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.6	44.7	15.7
– Net Position:	-20,371	34,154	-13,783
– Gross Longs:	63,712	136,888	22,325
– Gross Shorts:	84,083	102,734	36,108
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.6	64.8	31.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.5	37.4	-24.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -103,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,219 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -99,629 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	69.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	31.0	16.4
– Net Position:	-103,848	107,566	-3,718
– Gross Longs:	37,641	193,460	41,836
– Gross Shorts:	141,489	85,894	45,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.4	88.1	45.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.3	-1.9	12.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,910 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 185 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,095 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.8	67.8	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.2	21.7	35.9
– Net Position:	-14,910	25,967	-11,057
– Gross Longs:	8,888	38,201	9,178
– Gross Shorts:	23,798	12,234	20,235
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.7	86.6	21.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	18.4	-11.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -49,332 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.8	67.2	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.7	39.0	20.5
– Net Position:	-49,332	56,052	-6,720
– Gross Longs:	25,418	133,433	33,889
– Gross Shorts:	74,750	77,381	40,609
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	8.6	94.3	7.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.2	4.9	-13.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,110 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,081 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 20.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.7	68.9	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.8	25.0	17.2
– Net Position:	-75,110	86,432	-11,322
– Gross Longs:	32,805	135,553	22,592
– Gross Shorts:	107,915	49,121	33,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.8 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.0	82.2	24.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.0	-17.8	4.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -12,817 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 34 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,851 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.8	68.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.1	40.4	11.0
– Net Position:	-12,817	16,236	-3,419
– Gross Longs:	14,332	39,509	2,907
– Gross Shorts:	27,149	23,273	6,326
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	81.7	9.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	22.0	-18.3	-4.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,564 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 37,861 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.9	68.0	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	85.0	1.6
– Net Position:	31,297	-33,883	2,586
– Gross Longs:	57,470	135,287	5,745
– Gross Shorts:	26,173	169,170	3,159
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.2	41.1	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.7	20.1	-9.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 9,346 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 4,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	46.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.5	63.3	2.4
– Net Position:	9,346	-11,022	1,676
– Gross Longs:	29,781	31,449	3,265
– Gross Shorts:	20,435	42,471	1,589
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.6	52.3	50.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	5.9	-10.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,292 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.0	8.2	7.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.0	3.6	3.2
– Net Position:	-1,746	903	843
– Gross Longs:	15,495	1,599	1,468
– Gross Shorts:	17,241	696	625
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	2.3 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.1	93.8	32.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-50.3	78.9	10.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

02 Nov

RoboForex Unveils Commission Schemes for CopyFX Traders on MT5

RoboForex, a well-established financial brokerage company, has unveiled new commission structures designed to empower skilled traders to maximise their potential earnings through the Performance Fee and Subscription Fee models while using the MT5 platform.

RoboForex has expanded its CopyFX service on the MT5 platform with meticulously crafted commission schemes tailored to create a balanced economic framework for the benefit of both traders and investors. The new “Performance Fee” and “Subscription Fee” schemes aim to foster a conducive trading environment where commissions align harmoniously with the profitability of investors’ trades.

Under the Performance Fee scheme, traders earn a portion of the overall profit generated by their subscribed investors from all deals copied for all subscription time. Alternatively, the Subscription Fee scheme ensures traders a fixed commission.

It should be noted that investors only incur the fee if the overall result turns out to be profitable.

A Symbiotic Relationship Between Traders and Investors

This initiative promotes a mutually beneficial relationship between traders and investors. Skilled traders can explore additional income streams, as their commissions are directly linked to the profits investors earn through copied transactions. In parallel, investors have the flexibility to select traders based on their performance, creating an ecosystem where traders are motivated to enhance their trading strategies. Consequently, higher profits for investors translate into more substantial commissions for traders.

What CopyFX Can Offer Clients on MT5

CopyFX on MT5 offers a combination of cost-effectiveness with a minimal deposit requirement of 100 USD. It also provides a secure, flexible, and user-friendly investment management infrastructure. With just an MT5 hedge account, traders and investors can access one of the most celebrated trading terminals in the market. Traders can use one of the best terminals on the market with cutting-edge analytical tools and lowest ping VPS from MetaQuotes. All the essential tools for copying transactions and acquiring subscribers to MT5 accounts are readily accessible in the Members Area under the “Investments” section. Notably, fees are only charged to investors when trades result in profits.

About CopyFX

Established in 2012, CopyFX is RoboForex’s flagship copy-trading platform, ingeniously designed to bridge the gap between novice investors and experienced traders. This innovative system empowers investors to enhance their trading skills by seamlessly subscribing to and replicating the strategies of seasoned traders. Expert traders, in turn, have the opportunity to earn commissions through followers’ strategic adoption.

CopyFX is available across RoboForex’s MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, and R StocksTrader accounts. It offers an enhanced trading experience by extending its robust functionalities through seamless integration with the R StocksTrader and R MobileTrader applications, ensuring a genuinely versatile, multi-device trading journey.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

02 Nov

Will BOE help Sterling break out of downtrend?

By ForexTime

Bank of England unlikely to change benchmark rate today
“Hawkish hold” could keep Sterling supported, though still stuck in downtrend
GBPUSD bulls must first conquer 21-day SMA resistance
1.2130 region offering support since late-September
GBPUSD likeliest to trade within 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over one week

The Bank of England is expected to keep rates at 5.25% today.

This is in tune with current market pricing, with only a 29% chance of another hike by February.

Further hikes may be needed if the bank gets more evidence of persistent inflation.

Other data since the last BOE meeting has been broadly soft with weak GDP and PMIs in September and October stuck in contractionary territory so signalling a gloomy growth outlook.

This implies the bar is relatively high now for another rate hike, especially due to the slightly surprising unchanged decision at the September meeting.

Updated economic projections and the press conference may allow policymakers to show their hand.

Higher inflation forecasts, with the 2% target being hit halfway through 2025, might imply rates need to stay higher for longer.

However, BOE Governor Bailey may stress the lagged effects of this tightening cycle, with higher mortgage rates still to hit many households.

Market rate expectations are noticeably lower after the summer’s repricing with the first rate cut fully priced in by September 2024.

How much caution there is towards the poor outlook compared to the potential re-emergence of upside risks to inflation will be key.

A “hawkish hold” should see GBP relatively well supported as it battles to break out of its long-term downtrend.

From a technical perspective …

A bear channel, with a series of lower highs and lower lows, has been in place since the mid-July top above 1.31.

For immediate consideration, GBPUSD bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) must first secure a daily close above its 21-day simple moving average (SMA).

Further resistance northwards may arrive at:

1.220: upper boundary of its bear channel
1.22889: intraday high on October 24th
1.2300: psychologically-important level, close to 50 Fibonacci level from GBPUSD’s June 2021 – September 2022 peak-to-trough action

Looking the other way, the 1.2130 region should offer strong support, as has largely been the case over the past five weeks.

Ultimate immediate-term support may arrive around the recent cycle low in early October which sits at 1.20372.

The support and resistance levels listed above fits nicely with the forecasted trading range, as per Bloomberg’s FX model, which cites a …

74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2025 – 1.2304 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Nov

Fed/Treasury announcements may trigger USDInd breakout

By ForexTime

Fed/Treasury announcements today may spike FX volatility
USInd has climbed 3 months in a row
Bullish momentum stalling as traders await new catalyst for breakout
Dollar bulls will look to extend uptrend by 265 points
Dollar bears hoping for potential 120 point move south

The USDInd may see a volatility-triggering event today (Wednesday, November 1st).

Wild price swings for the USDInd would likely owe to two pivotal decisions out of the U.S:

US Treasury refunding announcement at 12:30 GMT
Fed rate decision @ 18:00 GMT

The market’s general expectation is for a pause in US interest rate hikes, owing partially to rising bond yields which most analysts see as tantamount to a rate hike.

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries are hovering just below the psychological 5% level, though remains at their highest levels since 2007. And we know that the US dollar tends to have a positive correlation with Treasury yields (both are likelier to move in the same direction).

So, we look to the USDInd, which tracks how the US dollar performs against a basket of its G10 peers including EUR, GBP, JPY and others.

USDInd uptrend stalls, breakout imminent?

Note that the USDInd has closed stronger/bullish for the last 3 months.

However, October also saw the shortest trading range (the difference between the highest price and the lowest price within that month):

August: 283 points
September: 333 points
October: 189 points

Such “thinning” monthly trading ranges suggest that the bullish momentum for USDInd is waning, though still intact.

On the weekly and daily time frames, bullish flags are seen, lasting for 5 weeks and 27 days respectively.

Flag patterns are continuation patterns expected to break out in the direction of the trend (flagpole) preceding the range/sideways movement (flag).

Hence, the “flags” on both the weekly and daily timeframes imply that traders are waiting for a new catalyst that would determine the next big move for USDInd.

How might USDInd react?

If the announcement out of either the Treasury or the Fed today results in US yields resuming its uptrend, then US dollar bulls may go charging on.

From a technical perspective, more gains may arrive if we see a strong breakout above the flag’s resistance around 106.87, the flag’s resistance which is being tested currently).

A stronger bullish signal may be derived especially if USDInd posts highs above 107.37, its highest price year-to-date.

With the flagpole used as an estimate for a flag’s measured move objective …

Dollar bulls will be looking for moves to the upside around 265 points.

However, dollar-longs (those hoping that prices will move higher) may experience confrontation at key resistance levels ahead, notably:

107.89: intraday high on November 21, 2022, and a key battleground for bears and bulls in the past
110.21: the 261.8 Fibonacci level when drawn from September 30th’s intraday low to the October 3rd intraday high.

USDInd bears (those hoping prices will move lower) on the other hand will be looking for dovish comments and action from the US Federal Reserve, or a less-than-expected amount of securities to be auctioned by the Treasury (currently expected to total US $114 billion).

This may result in the US index ultimately declining back towards:

106.124: the 161.8 Fibonacci level
105.602: the flags support zone

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Oct

Currency Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (3,029 contracts) with the EuroFX (2,843 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,983 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,689 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (504 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-7,427 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,952 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,444 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,342 contracts), Bitcoin (-781 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (-100 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators drop their British Pound bets for 9th week to 30-week low

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the sliding trend in the speculator’s positioning of the British Pound Sterling. Large speculative Sterling positions fell this week by over -7,400 contracts and have now declined for nine consecutive weeks. The Sterling speculative level has dropped by a total of -77,743 contracts over these past nine weeks to the lowest level of the past 30-weeks, dating back to March 28th.

Relatively recently, the bullish bets for the Sterling (+63,729 contracts on July 18th) had risen to the highest level since July 31st of 2007, a span of almost exactly sixteen years. This marked the highest level for this year’s bullish bets but the speculator positions did a u-turn and have now fallen in twelve out of the fourteen weeks since then.

Hurting the pound’s outlook has been a weak economic landscape and the expectation that the Bank of England could be done with raising interest rates. The BOE, this year, has boosted the bank’s interest rate to the highest level since 2008 at 5.25 percent to fight high inflation (which has eased to 6.7 percent).

The Pound Sterling exchange rate against the US Dollar has been in a downtrend since hitting a high over the 1.3000 level in the middle of July. Since that 2023 summer ascension, the Sterling has been dropping sharply, falling through the 1.2500 exchange rate and is currently testing support in the 1.2050-1.2100 range.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	42,670	42	19,671	58	-20,531	43	860	16
EUR	702,668	39	85,253	57	-107,996	49	22,743	15
GBP	233,259	57	-18,636	43	27,337	61	-8,701	41
JPY	260,909	82	-99,629	11	104,809	87	-5,180	43
CHF	59,266	92	-15,095	15	27,136	89	-12,041	18
CAD	184,747	49	-48,639	9	53,600	93	-4,961	12
AUD	194,666	54	-83,081	13	98,853	92	-15,772	14
NZD	57,243	74	-12,851	22	16,051	81	-3,200	12
MXN	194,530	35	37,861	62	-40,188	37	2,327	26
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	51,454	41	5,185	42	-6,903	56	1,718	50
Bitcoin	19,678	100	-454	60	-438	0	892	33

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (62 percent) and the Bitcoin (60 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The US Dollar Index (58 percent), EuroFX (57 percent) and the British Pound (43 percent) came in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (9 percent), the Japanese Yen (11 percent), the Australian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.9 percent)
EuroFX (56.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (55.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (42.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (48.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (10.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (9.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (9.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (9.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (14.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (21.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (62.2 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (66.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (42.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (40.2 percent)
Bitcoin (59.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (71.3 percent)

US Dollar Index & New Zealand Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the US Dollar Index (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (5 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (-1 percent), the Australian Dollar (-3 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-6 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The British Pound (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Bitcoin (-40 percent), Mexican Peso (-18 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (22.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (26.4 percent)
EuroFX (-11.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-22.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-45.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-40.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-0.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-15.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-32.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-6.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-22.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (-3.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (2.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (21.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-17.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-13.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-40.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-25.8 percent)