Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 58

27 Nov

Trade Of The Week: EURUSD bulls back in town?

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD climbs roughly 500 pips from October low
  • Data from both sides of the Atlantic could rock currency pair
  • Euro bulls in position of power but RSI signals overbought
  • Prices are testing resistance level at 1.0950
  • Another big move around the corner for EURUSD?

The world’s most traded FX pair has climbed roughly 500 pips from its October low!

Over the past few weeks, EURUSD bulls have been putting in the work with prices back above the 200-day Simple Moving Average. 

Fundamentally, a weaker dollar has powered the EURUSD’s upside. Dollar weakness was a major theme this month, especially after the softer-than-expected US inflation data solidified bets over the Fed being done with rate hikes.

Given how the currency pair is testing a significant resistance level ahead of a data-packed week from both sides of the Atlantic, another big move could be around the corner.

Here are three main factors to look out for this week:

  1. Key EU data

It’s a data-heavy week for the euro with the latest inflation figures and PMI’s among other reports in focus.

Wednesday sees the Eurozone economic and consumer confidence report coupled with CPI figures from Germany which could offer fresh clues about what actions the ECB may take beyond 2023. Germany’s month-on-month inflation figures are expected to post a negative 0.1% print in November while the year-on-year is forecast to hit 3.5% – lower than the 3.8% in the previous month. On Thursday, attention will be on the Eurozone CPI and Germany unemployment figures which will be topped off with the Eurozone/Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI’s on Friday.

Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of an ECB 25 basis point rate cut by April 2024.

  • The EURUSD could weaken on further evidence of cooling price pressures and disappointing economic data from the eurozone/Germany.
  • A surprise uptick in inflation and better-than-expected economic data could support the euro, pushing the EURUSD higher as a result.

  1. Dollar volatility

The cocktail of US economic data coupled with speeches from a host of Fed officials including Jerome Powell could trigger dollar volatility this week.

Data such as third-quarter US GDP (second estimate), consumer confidence, the latest PCE report and PMI’s among others may offer fresh clues about the Fed’s 2024 policy outlook. On Friday, Powell will be under the spotlight with his comments heavily scrutinized by investors for more clarity on the Fed’s thinking beyond 2023.

  • The dollar is likely to strengthen if economic data beats forecasts and Powell downplays expectations around US rate cuts next year. A stronger dollar may drag the EURUSD’s lower.
  • Should US economic data disappoint and Powell along with other Fed officials strike a dovish tone, the EURUSD may venture higher amid a weaker dollar.

  1. Technical forces

The EURUSD remains in a healthy uptrend on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Although euro bulls are in a position of power above the 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has touched 70 – indicating that prices may be overbought. A strong breakout or technical rebound could be on the horizon, with 1.0950 acting as a key level of interest.

  • Should prices secure a strong breakout and daily close above 1.0950, this could open the doors towards 1.1030 and 1.1080 – a level not seen since late July. 
  • Should the EURUSD remain capped below 1.0950, this could trigger a decline back towards 1.0850 and the 200-day SMA at 1.0813. 

According to Bloomberg’s FX model, there is a 76% chance that the EURUSD trades within the 1.0854 – 1.1062 range this week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
25 Nov

Dollar to dive in 2024 as investors bet on Fed cuts

By George Prior 

The US dollar is likely to “consistently weaken” throughout 2024 as the US Federal Reserve winds up its aggressive interest rate hiking agenda, predicts the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

The bearish forecast from deVere Group chief executive Nigel Green comes as it is reported that asset managers are selling the currency at the fastest pace in a year.

He comments: “The Big Dollar Sell-Off is on.

“We expect this trend to increase in momentum throughout 2024 as investors increasingly believe that the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hiking campaign in a generation is winding down.

“The dollar traditionally performs well at the start of the year, but it is likely that it will consistently weaken during the course of next year as the Fed moves to ease its grip on rates.

“With the battle against inflation being won, it can be expected that the central bank will roll out multiple rate cuts in 2024, prompting investors to think that holding so many dollars is not as necessary.”

The expectation is that lower interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets. As interest rates in the US decline, the interest rate differential between the dollar and other currencies narrows, diminishing the yield advantage that has historically drawn investors to the greenback.

Furthermore, the possibility of multiple rate cuts by the Fed is prompting investors to seek higher-yielding assets elsewhere, contributing to the accelerated exit from the dollar.

“Alternative investments in currencies from regions with more favourable interest rate outlooks become increasingly appealing as the interest rate differentials shift in their favor.”

The reverberations of this dollar sell-off extend beyond the borders of the United States.

“A weakened dollar has implications for global trade, as a depreciating currency can boost US exports but may also lead to tensions with trading partners,” says the deVere Group CEO.

“In addition, emerging market economies, which often carry significant levels of dollar-denominated debt, will experience relief as the burden of servicing this debt is alleviated with a weaker dollar.”

He concludes: “As investors bet big on the Fed cutting rates, 2024 could be dubbed ‘the year of the dollar dive’.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Forex and Currency News Opinions
23 Nov

Burgeoning Downtrend in Us Dollar Could Ease Difficulties Facing Emerging Market Economies

Source: McAlinden Research  (11/17/23)

McAlinden Research Partners McAlinden Research shares thoughts on the current state of the U.S. dollar and how this may impact the market.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a 2-month low earlier this week on consumer price inflation data that was softer than expected. A gradual pace of disinflation has taken hold and appears to indicate the Federal Reserve has wrangled inflation for the moment. The slowing pace of growth in the CPI was compounded by outright deflation in producer prices, as well as import and export price data.

These data points have increased the likelihood that the Fed has concluded its spate of rate hikes, reaching a terminal Fed Funds rate of 5.5%. If so, that would fall one hike short of what Fed policymakers projected for 2023 in September’s dot plot. Fed Funds futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicate that traders see no further hikes going forward into 2024.

When interest rates rise in the U.S., the higher yields can attract investment capital from investors abroad who exchange assets in non-USD currencies for Dollar-denominated investments. This demand, in turn, raises the value of the Dollar compared to other currencies. In a similar way, if rates are to hold steady or even begin to fall, that can cut the appeal of the Dollar. CME’s FedWatch tool suggests a cut is actually more likely than any further hikes going forward — particularly from May 2024 and beyond.

It was all the way back in our August 2022 Viewpoint, The FX Timebomb , that MRP noted the Dollar was likely on the verge of a downturn, as the Fed was rapidly approaching what we termed “peak hawkishness;” the point at which rate hikes reached their maximum size and frequency. We wagered that, from that point on, the central bank’s rate hike regime would gradually reduce the size of rate hikes from 75bps at their largest to 50bps and then, eventually, just 25bps. Further, these hikes would become less frequent until they ceased altogether — likely the state of affairs we have now reached with just one hike in the past four FOMC meetings. The DXY hit a more than 20-year high north of 114.0 that September, prior to retreating. Though we did witness a rebound in the Dollar from lows under 100.00 earlier this year, it has not gotten anywhere near its 2022 high.

If Dollar strength is indeed set to subside further, that could provide a boon to emerging market (EM) economies. Per a 2023 IMF analysis, a 10.0% USD appreciation, linked to global financial market forces, decreases economic output in emerging economies by -1.9% after one year’s time, and this drag lingers for two and a half years. The international impact of material USD appreciation is felt disproportionately in EM economies, as growth in developed economies only experiences an immediate decline of -0.6% in the wake of 10.0% USD appreciation, and that dent dissipates in a year’s time.

The strong USD battered nearly all international currencies — particularly those in emerging markets — but subsiding rate pressure from the Fed is bolstering expectations for non-USD currencies in the year ahead. A majority of analysts in a November Reuters poll indicated that they expect the Dollar to trade lower by year-end. The rebound in EM currencies is expected to be gradual, but several EM currencies, like the Indian Rupee, Thai Baht, and South Korean Won, were projected to recoup recent losses sustained against the US Dollar by late 2024.

Shares of many publicly traded EM firms could be bolstered by a favorable currency translation effect if the Dollar continues to soften relative to local currencies. An October 2023 outlook report from Lazard Asset Management notes that current earnings growth forecasts show EM earnings growth of 19% in 2024, nearly doubling expectations for developed markets earnings growth at just 10%. Earnings in the U.S. are only expected to expand by 12%, signifying a 7% positive earnings growth spread in favor of EM over U.S. equities.

The most significant impact of a weakening Dollar on emerging markets may be the impact on their debt loads. As of 2019, about two-thirds of external debt in EM economies was denominated in USD. By October 2022, Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data showed that non-financial dollar-denominated debt in emerging economies stood at $4.2 trillion. When the Dollar appreciates in value compared to local currencies in emerging markets, the servicing of USD-denominated debt becomes more costly on a relative basis. However, the opposite case could now take place, with EM debt loads becoming more manageable.

Investors can gain exposure to emerging markets via the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), as well as EM currencies via the WisdomTree Emerging Currency Strategy Fund (CEW). Additionally, exposure to the U.S. Dollar can be gained with either the Invesco DB U.S. Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) or Invesco’s DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN).

Charts

 

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.
  2. This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

McAlinden Research Partners Disclosures
This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not an offer to buy/sell/endorse or a solicitation of an offer to buy/sell/endorse Interests or any other security or instrument or to participate in any trading or investment strategy. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is made or can be given with respect to the sequence, accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information in this Report. Unless otherwise noted, all information is sourced from public data.
McAlinden Research Partners is a division of Catalpa Capital Advisors, LLC (CCA), a Registered Investment Advisor. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets discussed herein are for illustrative purposes only and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. CCA, MRP, employees and direct affiliates of the firm may or may not own any of the securities mentioned in the report at the time of publication.

Forex and Currency News Opinions
21 Nov

USDInd hits 3-month low. More room to fall?

By ForexTime

  • Dollar weakened as markets raise bet on Fed rate cuts in 2024
  • USDInd approaches key support levels around 103 region
  • Daily close below 103 region could spark another 1,300-point drop
  • Other technical indicators suggest 350-point rebound ahead
  • FOMC meeting minutes later today may spark more volatility

 

The USD index has fallen by some 4000 points since its November 1st intraday high.

There may be little ahead to cheer for the index, given current market expectations that the US Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates as early as May 2024.

Recall that greater expectations for lower interest rate cuts tend to translate into a weaker currency.

 

At the time of writing the US Index is approaching a convergence of support levels:

  • 103.000: an important round number level
  • 102.910: the 261.8 Fibonacci level

The Fibonacci levels are taken from the 29th September low to the 3rd October high.

A daily close below these levels could see the index fall further to 101.900 to trade around its lowest since August.

USDInd may see 350-point technical rebound soon

From an Elliot wave perspective, the USDInd D1 is in its 5th impulse wave of the decline from 107.914 posted on November 1st.

Based on the Elliot wave theory, wave 5 is usually followed by a correction with sequence A-B-C coming in different forms.

If the key support levels around 103.00 hold, we may see the index bulls come in for a counter trend move back up to its 200-day moving average.

 

Note also that the Relative Strength Index (an indicator that shows us extreme buy and sell zones) is teetering at the 30-point level.

If the RSI falls below 30,  it becomes technically oversold.

Such a technical event would increase the probabilities of a rebound.

 

However, the Average Directional Movement Index (an indicator that shows us the strength of the trend) is pointing upwards.

This means that the downward bias for the USDInd remains strong.

This could spell an extended decline in the USDIndex, until we see a peak in the ADX signaling weakness in the current bearish strength.

 

What could move USDInd today?

With FOMC meeting minutes due at 7:00 pm GMT tonight, traders and investors around the world are looking for confirmation that peak US interest rates is truly here.

In other words, markets want to know whether the Fed is truly done with its rate hikes for this cycle.

If so, that could send the USDInd to a fresh 3-month low.

 

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
19 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Japanese Yen bearish bets to 6-year high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (19,851 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (6,642 contracts), the Brazilian Real (5,100 contracts), Bitcoin (333 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (263 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-26,209 contracts), the British Pound (-11,478 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,393 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,094 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-2,682 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-2,589 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Japanese Yen Speculator bets decline to 6-year high

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the renewed boost in the weakness of the Japanese yen speculator positioning. Large speculative yen positions fell sharply this week by -26,209 net contracts and dropped for the third straight week. Over the past sixteen weeks, the yen speculator bets have decreased in twelve of those weeks and a total of -52,497 contracts have been added to the current bearish standing.

This week’s yen net position of -130,249 contracts marks the most bearish level of the past 313 weeks, dating all the way back to November 14th of 2017 (exactly six years to the date) when the net position had fallen to -135,999 contracts.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has continued with an ultra-loose monetary policy regime in contrast to most major economies that have been aggressively raising interest rates to combat inflationary pressures over the past year. The BOJ recently kept its interest rate unchanged (currently at -0.1 percent) but changed the upper level for the 10-year interest rate to 1 percent and cited an expectation of higher inflation going forward. Market watchers are speculating that the BOJ could end its negative interest rates as early as January. Depending on the path and the many variables going forward, a normalization of policy could be a benefit for the Japanese yen which has been at weakest levels in three decades.

This week, the yen exchange rate against the US Dollar was stronger and managed to close the week at the 149.50 level. This was a turnaround at the end of the week after the USDJPY currency pair touched the 151.90 exchange level on Monday (a higher USDJPY exchange rate means dollar strength & yen weakness) which was the highest point for the currency pair since October of 2022 when the pair reached a high of 151.94.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-14-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index38,8423219,73458-20,3784364413
EUR702,46335108,90767-140,9873632,08030
GBP216,41147-27,7303735,43966-7,70943
JPY273,76391-130,2490133,272100-3,02347
CHF59,46493-20,151127,54389-7,39235
CAD206,04665-70,403077,698100-7,2957
AUD197,46956-70,9562479,05777-8,10133
NZD49,90656-17,0341119,17088-2,13625
MXN228,8094843,38266-47,568334,18638
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL68,0306431,65176-33,408241,75751
Bitcoin21,20396-1,34446481086333

 

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (76 percent) and the EuroFX (67 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (66 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (1 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (57.4 percent)
EuroFX (66.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (58.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (36.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (44.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (0.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (8.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (2.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (28.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (11.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (16.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (65.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (75.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (68.9 percent)
Bitcoin (46.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.2 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (19 percent) and the EuroFX (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (10 percent) and the US Dollar Index (2 percent) represent the next highest positive movers in the trends data.

The Bitcoin (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-25 percent), New Zealand Dollar (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-15 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.5 percent)
EuroFX (12.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-4.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-14.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-22.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (3.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.6 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-23.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-25.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-29.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (10.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-24.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (0.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-14.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (14.3 percent)
Bitcoin (-36.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-52.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 19,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 263 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:70.217.89.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.470.37.6
– Net Position:19,734-20,378644
– Gross Longs:27,2716,9173,615
– Gross Shorts:7,53727,2952,971
– Long to Short Ratio:3.6 to 10.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.843.413.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.5-0.3-8.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 108,907 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 19,851 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.554.311.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.074.47.4
– Net Position:108,907-140,98732,080
– Gross Longs:221,190381,76583,714
– Gross Shorts:112,283522,75251,634
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.736.430.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.8-13.610.0

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -11,478 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,252 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.460.112.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.243.715.8
– Net Position:-27,73035,439-7,709
– Gross Longs:52,797130,00426,403
– Gross Shorts:80,52794,56534,112
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.565.542.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.610.06.2

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -130,249 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -26,209 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,040 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.173.015.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.724.316.5
– Net Position:-130,249133,272-3,023
– Gross Longs:27,772199,89042,074
– Gross Shorts:158,02166,61845,097
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 13.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.047.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.07.51.7

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -20,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,562 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.371.019.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.224.732.0
– Net Position:-20,15127,543-7,392
– Gross Longs:5,51542,24011,612
– Gross Shorts:25,66614,69719,004
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.489.534.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.60.311.6

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,403 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,682 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -67,721 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.173.814.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.236.117.7
– Net Position:-70,40377,698-7,295
– Gross Longs:18,678152,04329,204
– Gross Shorts:89,08174,34536,499
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.0 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.06.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.424.4-19.7

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -70,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,563 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.667.211.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:52.527.115.2
– Net Position:-70,95679,057-8,101
– Gross Longs:32,728132,63921,818
– Gross Shorts:103,68453,58229,919
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.876.732.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.1-13.717.5

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -17,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,094 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,940 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.773.86.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.835.410.5
– Net Position:-17,03419,170-2,136
– Gross Longs:8,81836,8173,107
– Gross Shorts:25,85217,6475,243
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.088.324.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.419.211.1

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,382 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 6,642 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,740 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.660.63.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.681.41.2
– Net Position:43,382-47,5684,186
– Gross Longs:79,162138,7166,874
– Gross Shorts:35,780186,2842,688
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.633.037.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.911.79.3

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 31,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,551 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.821.75.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.370.82.5
– Net Position:31,651-33,4081,757
– Gross Longs:49,53714,7673,478
– Gross Shorts:17,88648,1751,721
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.3 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):75.624.150.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.5-19.97.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 333 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,677 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:75.25.27.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.52.93.5
– Net Position:-1,344481863
– Gross Longs:15,9391,1051,609
– Gross Shorts:17,283624746
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.8 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.282.332.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.153.210.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
18 Nov

Speculator Extremes: 3M SOFR, Steel, Yen & Ultra 10-Year lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 14th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 95.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 416,726 net contracts this week with a net gain of 30,097 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 92.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 14.7 this week. The speculator position registered -1,768 net contracts this week with a weekly dip of -465 contracts in speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Cocoa Futures speculator level resides at a 87.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 6.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 75,784 net contracts this week with a small gain of 757 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 81.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 32,569 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,571 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -4.5 this week.

The speculator position was -6,334 net contracts this week with a shortfall of -172 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -265,436 net contracts this week with a small decline of -1,256 contracts in the speculator bets.

Japanese Yen


The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Japanese Yen speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.0 this week. The speculator position was -130,249 net contracts this week with a drop of -26,209 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -25.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -70,403 net contracts this week with a decrease of -2,682 contracts in the speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI


The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -41.3 this week. The speculator position was -64,174 net contracts this week with a drop of -5,972 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,416,240 net contracts this week with an increase of 7,144 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
16 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 16.11.2023 (USDCHF, XAUUSD)

By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a possible development of a downtrend. However, the RSI is already in the oversold area. As a result, the quotes are expected to rise above 2/8 (0.8911), reaching the resistance level of 3/8 (0.8977). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 1/8 (0.8850). In this case, the pair might drop to the support at 0/8 (0.8789).

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a price rise.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, revealing the prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. In this case, the quotes are expected to rise above 7/8 (1968.75), followed by a rise to the resistance level of 8/8 (2000.00). The scenario might be cancelled by a downward breakout of 6/8 (1937.50), which could lead to a trend reversal and a decline to the support at 5/8 (1906.25).

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, a breakout of the upper boundary of the VoltyChannel could increase the probability of a further price rise.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Nov

Currency Speculators raised Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar bets last week

COT Release delayed to Monday due to CFTC Holiday Schedule

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Monday (delayed due to holiday release).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 7th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Australian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher last week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (17,205 contracts) with the Australian Dollar (9,547 contracts), the Mexican Peso (5,443 contracts), the British Pound (4,119 contracts), the EuroFX (3,667 contracts), the US Dollar Index (486 contracts) and with Bitcoin (69 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-18,389 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-2,652 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,123 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (-192 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-07-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index41,2243819,47157-20,1614469014
EUR697,6243389,05658-117,5154528,45924
GBP212,73045-16,2524429,16662-12,91433
JPY259,69881-104,0408111,95790-7,91737
CHF56,75684-17,562927,89290-10,33024
CAD200,36461-67,721072,568100-4,84712
AUD192,49652-65,5632973,26772-7,70434
NZD51,00159-14,9401617,37384-2,43321
MXN216,5344336,74062-41,220374,48040
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL61,5945526,55169-28,276311,72551
Bitcoin21,749100-1,67741794088333

 

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (69 percent) and the Mexican Peso (62 percent) led the currency markets. The EuroFX (58 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (44 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Japanese Yen (8 percent), the Swiss Franc (9 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) came in at the lowest strength levels and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (57.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.6 percent)
EuroFX (58.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (56.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (41.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (8.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (8.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (16.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (28.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (16.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (61.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (68.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (46.6 percent)
Bitcoin (41.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

 

Australian Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Australian Dollar (19 percent) and the Brazilian Real (14 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (5 percent) and the Japanese Yen (3 percent) were the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Bitcoin (-52 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-30 percent), Swiss Franc (-24 percent) and the British Pound (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.6 percent)
EuroFX (-4.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-7.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-22.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-37.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (3.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-1.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-23.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-19.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-30.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-1.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (19.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (22.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (14.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-4.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-52.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-50.3 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 19,471 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,985 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.619.49.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.468.37.8
– Net Position:19,471-20,161690
– Gross Longs:27,8668,0003,903
– Gross Shorts:8,39528,1613,213
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.443.813.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.5-2.4-14.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 89,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,667 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,389 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.556.011.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.772.87.7
– Net Position:89,056-117,51528,459
– Gross Longs:212,483390,33682,294
– Gross Shorts:123,427507,85153,835
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.245.224.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.02.63.9

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -16,252 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,119 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,371 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.059.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.745.416.4
– Net Position:-16,25229,166-12,914
– Gross Longs:57,532125,78122,020
– Gross Shorts:73,78496,61534,934
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 11.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.562.032.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.221.2-11.6

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -104,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -103,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.573.114.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:50.630.017.9
– Net Position:-104,040111,957-7,917
– Gross Longs:27,238189,95138,560
– Gross Shorts:131,27877,99446,477
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.290.337.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.2-4.05.7

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -17,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,910 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.269.116.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.120.034.7
– Net Position:-17,56227,892-10,330
– Gross Longs:8,05439,2289,391
– Gross Shorts:25,61611,33619,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 13.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.790.124.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.712.75.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -67,721 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -18,389 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,332 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.672.515.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.436.318.2
– Net Position:-67,72172,568-4,847
– Gross Longs:17,171145,27231,585
– Gross Shorts:84,89272,70436,432
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.012.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.127.6-17.2

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -65,563 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 9,547 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,110 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.765.911.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.727.815.3
– Net Position:-65,56373,267-7,704
– Gross Longs:34,049126,86921,769
– Gross Shorts:99,61253,60229,473
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):28.772.333.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.5-21.918.9

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -14,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,123 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,817 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.473.46.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.739.310.7
– Net Position:-14,94017,373-2,433
– Gross Longs:9,39937,4323,047
– Gross Shorts:24,33920,0595,480
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.584.321.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.6-2.49.6

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 36,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,297 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.163.53.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.182.51.1
– Net Position:36,740-41,2204,480
– Gross Longs:71,644137,4366,939
– Gross Shorts:34,904178,6562,459
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.8 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):61.636.739.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.613.93.1

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 26,551 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 17,205 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,346 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:71.822.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.768.42.6
– Net Position:26,551-28,2761,725
– Gross Longs:44,24413,8353,350
– Gross Shorts:17,69342,1111,625
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.3 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):68.930.650.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.3-12.8-8.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,677 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 69 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:79.36.67.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.02.93.2
– Net Position:-1,677794883
– Gross Longs:17,2531,4311,580
– Gross Shorts:18,930637697
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.2 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.290.833.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-52.276.914.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
13 Nov

Trade of the Week: GBPUSD capped below 200-day SMA?

By ForexTime 

  • GBPUSD bulls rejected by 200-day SMA
  • Big week for currency pair due to key UK data
  • Watch out for potential dollar volatility amid high-risk events
  • Prices back within wide range on daily charts
  • Bears could mean business below 1.2320 level

GBPUSD bears could mean business after dragging prices back below a key resistance level.

Despite punching above the 1.2320 level earlier this month, bulls were halted below the 200-day SMA which saw prices slip back within a wide range on the daily charts.

The GBPUSD has been stuck within this range since late September with key support at 1.2080.

Given the barrage of economic reports from the United Kingdom and various events that could rock the dollar – a significant move could be on the horizon for the GBPUSD.

Here are 3 factors to watch out for this week:

  1. Key UK data 

The string of key UK economic data this week could offer fresh insight into the health of the economy and influence expectations around the BoE’s next policy move.

On Tuesday, all eyes will be on the latest employment report and speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech. The jobs data is likely to offer more clarity on the health of the labour force with wage growth in sharp focus. Wednesday sees the highly anticipated inflation data for October which is expected to see a sharp drop amid lower energy prices. This is topped off with retail sales on Friday and a speech by Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

As of writing, traders are currently pricing in a 1 in 10 chance of a 25-basis point BoE hike in December.

  • Sterling is likely to weaken towards the 1.2080 support as more signs of a slowing jobs market and cooler-than-expected inflation data reinforces expectations around the BoE being finished with hikes.
  • The pound could receive a boost towards the 1.2320 level if higher than expected UK economic data including inflation revives bets around another BoE hike beyond 2023.

  1. Dollar volatility 

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the dollar could experience heightened volatility this week.

It is set to be influenced by not only the incoming US inflation data on Tuesday but a string of significant reports throughout the week and speeches by numerous Fed officials. On top of this, the threat of a potential US government shutdown on Friday may add to the expected volatility, placing the dollar on a rollercoaster ride.

  • The dollar could receive a boost if the US inflation data beats forecasts, overall economic data is encouraging, and the US government strikes a deal before the deadline. This development may drag the GBPUSD lower.
  • Should the US CPI report print softer than expected, economic data disappoint and the US government experiences a shutdown, the dollar could be in the firing line. A weaker dollar has the potential to push the GBPUSD higher.

  1. Technical forces 

On the weekly charts, the close back below 1.2320 has placed bears in a position of power with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-week SMA.

Zooming back into the daily, we see a breakout/down opportunity with prices touching the 50-day SMA as of writing.

  • A solid daily close above 1.2320 may encourage a move back toward the 200-day SMA at 1.2430 

  • Should prices fail to push back above 1.2320, bears could drag the currency pair toward the next key support at 1.2080 and 1.1930 – a level not seen since February 2023.

According to Bloomberg’s FX forecast model, there’s a 73% chance that GBPUSD trades within the 1.2109 – 1.2396 range this week.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
10 Nov

Week Ahead: US dollar gears up for big move

By ForexTime 

  • Big week ahead for USD thanks to key risk events
  • Watch out for top US data including CPI & Fed speeches
  • Looming US government shutdown also on radar
  • USDInd back within wide range with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20
  • Another major breakout on the horizon?

The incoming US inflation data, speeches from Fed officials and threat of a potential US government shutdown could rock the dollar next week.

Monday, November 13th  

  • JPY: Japan PPI
  • GBP: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speech

Tuesday, November 14th  

  • NZD: New Zealand food prices
  • EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
  • GBP: UK jobless claims, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech
  • USD: US October CPI, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speech
  • SPX500_m: Home Depot earnings

Wednesday, November 15th

  • CNH: China retail sales, industrial production
  • JPY: Japan GDP, industrial production
  • EUR: EU’s autumn economic forecast
  • GBP: UK CPI
  • USD: US retail sales, business inventories, PPI, Empire manufacturing

Thursday, November 16th  

  • AUD: Australia unemployment
  • JPY: Japan tertiary index, core machine order, trade
  • USD: US initial jobless claims, industrial production, Fed speak
  • SPX500_m: Walmart earnings
  • APEC leaders summit – US President and Chinese President speech

Friday, November 17th

  • EUR: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • GBP: Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speech
  • USD: Fed speak – Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Boston Fed President Susan, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • Deadline for avoiding US government shutdown

Dollar bull returned to the scene this week thanks to hawkish remarks from Fed officials including Jerome Powell.

Looking at the charts, prices are back above the 105.50 level – testing the 50-day SMA as of writing.

A big move may be brewing for the USDIndex and here are 4 reasons why:

  1. US October CPI Report

The October US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report published on Tuesday; November 14 is likely to influence expectations around what the Fed does beyond 2023.

Markets are forecasting: 

  • CPI year-on-year (October 2023 vs. October 2022) to cool 3.3% from 3.7% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 4.1%.
  • CPI month-on-month (October 2023 vs September 2023) to cool 0.1% from 0.4% in the prior month.
  • Core CPI month-on-month to remain unchanged at 0.3%.

Headline inflation is expected to have cooled due to falling global energy prices, will the annual core inflation unchanged at 4.1% – its lowest level since September 2021. Ultimately, further evidence of cooling inflationary pressures may reinforce the argument around the Fed being done with hikes despite recent hawkish remarks from central bank officials. 

  • A softer-than-expected US CPI report is likely to send the USDInd lower.
  • Should the inflation report exceed market forecasts, the USDInd could rise towards the 107.2 resistance.

  1. US data + Fed speeches 

A string of key US economic data and speeches by numerous Fed officials could inject the dollar with more volatility.

Investors will direct their attention towards the latest US retail sales report, Producer Prices Index (PPI), and initial jobless claims among other data releases to gauge the health of the US economy. Speeches from various Fed officials are also likely to be closely combed through for more clues and clarity on the Fed’s next move.

  • Should overall US economic data paint an encouraging picture and Fed speakers strike a hawkish tone, this could keep rate hike hopes alive – boosting the USDInd as a result.
  • If US economic data disappoints and Fed officials adopt a dovish stance, the USDInd may weaken as bets increase on a Fed pause.

  1. Possible US Government shutdown 

Once again, the United States is facing another government shutdown deadline set to expire on November 17th. The last time this happened was back in September when a last-minute deal was secured before the October 1st deadline.

Should this become reality, sentiment towards the US economy could take a hit with an extended shutdown fuelling US recession fears – impacting Fed hike expectations as a result.

  • A government shutdown may weigh heavily on the dollar, pulling the USDInd lower.
  • Should the government strike a deal, this could offer some support to the USDInd.

  1. Technical forces

The USDInd is back within a wide range on the daily charts with support at 105.50 and resistance at 107.20. Prices are trading above the 100 and 200-day SMA but the MACD trades below zero.

  • Sustained weakness below the 50-day SMA (106.0 level) may encourage a decline back towards 105.50 and 104.90.
  • A solid breakout above the 50-day SMA could trigger a move towards 106.60 and 107.20.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
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