Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 57

17 Dec

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by the Japanese Yen & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,825 contracts) with the British Pound (9,916 contracts), the Australian Dollar (5,341 contracts), the Swiss Franc (3,378 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (2,962 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (669 contracts) Bitcoin (183 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,603 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-5,033 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-3,580 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (-2,343 contracts).

Japanese Yen Speculators reduce bearish bets to lowest since August

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was a sharp boost in sentiment for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions rose strongly this week by over +23,000 net contracts and gained for a second straight week as well as for the third time in four weeks. Over these past four weeks, the yen speculator bets now have improved by a total of +49,118 contracts.

This turn in sentiment has taken the overall bearish net positioning for speculators down to a current level of -81,131 contracts, marking the least bearish level since August.

The yen exchange rate continued to improve as well this week versus the US Dollar. The USDJPY currency pair fell for a fifth consecutive week this week (a lower USDJPY exchange rate means USD weakness and JPY strength) and closed at the 142.13 level. The USDJPY is off it’s most recent high in November by about 7 percent.

Helping the yen’s fortunes lately has been a general speculation that the Bank of Japan will look to end its negative interest rate policy sometime in the coming new year. Also, on the US Dollar side, this is combined with the US Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate hold last week that has lent credence to the outlook that US interest rates will be on hold or even possibly be reduced over 2024.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-12-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index41,3453817,60154-18,0324743115
EUR792,14984147,32783-182,3572135,03035
GBP243,6776321,58171-20,10134-1,48055
JPY257,58180-81,1312779,527741,60457
CHF65,186100-14,4741719,31375-4,83944
CAD213,87371-55,2451361,19390-5,94810
AUD208,92764-52,3404154,86858-2,52846
NZD58,30877-13,4882013,1097537954
MXN269,0746274,12584-79,064144,93943
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL68,6465446,66495-48,95552,29156
Bitcoin21,21189-2,067351,188087933

 

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (95 percent), the Mexican Peso (84 percent) and the EuroFX (83 percent) lead the currency markets this week.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) and the Swiss Franc (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (20 percent) and the Japanese Yen (27 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (54.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (58.2 percent)
EuroFX (83.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (85.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (70.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (63.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (27.2 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (17.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (12.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (40.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (36.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (12.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (95.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (99.7 percent)
Bitcoin (35.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (32.5 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & British Pound top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (48 percent) and the British Pound (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (26 percent), the Mexican Peso (26 percent) and the Australian Dollar (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Canadian Dollar (-5 percent), Bitcoin (-5 percent), the US Dollar Index (-2 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores this week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-2.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.5 percent)
EuroFX (26.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (28.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (29.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (21.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-7.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-5.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-7.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (20.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-1.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (26.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (21.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (48.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (58.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-4.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-27.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 17,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,944 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:68.018.67.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.462.26.5
– Net Position:17,601-18,032431
– Gross Longs:28,1007,6773,116
– Gross Shorts:10,49925,7092,685
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.3 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.347.114.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.33.3-8.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 147,327 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,033 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 152,360 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.354.712.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.777.78.2
– Net Position:147,327-182,35735,030
– Gross Longs:231,837433,209100,250
– Gross Shorts:84,510615,56665,220
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.120.934.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.4-27.418.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,581 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,916 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.647.418.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.755.718.9
– Net Position:21,581-20,101-1,480
– Gross Longs:72,011115,62044,638
– Gross Shorts:50,430135,72146,118
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):70.834.455.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.1-30.424.1

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -81,131 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,825 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -104,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.067.115.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.536.214.4
– Net Position:-81,13179,5271,604
– Gross Longs:28,226172,75638,804
– Gross Shorts:109,35793,22937,200
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.274.056.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.6-13.610.8

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -14,474 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,378 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.165.219.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.335.627.0
– Net Position:-14,47419,313-4,839
– Gross Longs:3,97042,48912,788
– Gross Shorts:18,44423,17617,627
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.574.543.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.2-12.122.4

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -55,245 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,603 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,848 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.171.913.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.943.216.1
– Net Position:-55,24561,193-5,948
– Gross Longs:19,457153,67828,390
– Gross Shorts:74,70292,48534,338
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.789.79.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.03.21.7

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -52,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,341 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -57,681 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.867.110.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.940.811.9
– Net Position:-52,34054,868-2,528
– Gross Longs:30,967140,17222,411
– Gross Shorts:83,30785,30424,939
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.858.446.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:20.8-23.821.4

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -13,488 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,450 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.859.37.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.936.87.1
– Net Position:-13,48813,109379
– Gross Longs:13,27334,5884,515
– Gross Shorts:26,76121,4794,136
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.374.654.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.7-7.145.2

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 74,125 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 669 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,456 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.549.72.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.079.10.7
– Net Position:74,125-79,0644,939
– Gross Longs:114,396133,8476,875
– Gross Shorts:40,271212,9111,936
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.6 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.414.242.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.1-26.815.0

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,244 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.320.95.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.392.32.2
– Net Position:46,664-48,9552,291
– Gross Longs:50,30514,3753,767
– Gross Shorts:3,64163,3301,476
– Long to Short Ratio:13.8 to 10.2 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.04.555.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:48.4-47.85.7

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,067 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 183 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,250 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.17.97.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:83.82.33.7
– Net Position:-2,0671,188879
– Gross Longs:15,7141,6841,654
– Gross Shorts:17,781496775
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.4 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.394.932.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.87.30.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
11 Dec

Euro Shows Temporary Stability

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Euro’s recent stabilization against the US dollar, now hovering around 1.0766, may be short-lived. Market eyes are turning towards the upcoming two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, starting Tuesday and concluding late Wednesday. Key attention will be on the interest rate decision, widely anticipated to hold steady at 5.50% annually.

Investor focus is keenly set on the Fed’s potential moves for February and March, with speculation rife about a possible rate reduction by the end of Q1. Any hints or signals in this regard will be crucial for market dynamics.

Monday’s calendar is light, with no major statistics due from either the Eurozone or the US. The real action is expected to start Tuesday.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, a decline impulse to 1.0804 has been observed. Currently, the market has formed a consolidation range around it. A downward wave to 1.0704 could develop today. This practically implies a breakout from the range downwards, opening the potential for further trend development towards 1.0594. This is the first target. Once the quotes reach it, a correction to 1.0800 might start, followed by a decline to 1.0400. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, where its signal line is below zero, pointing strictly downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the quotes have rebounded from 1.0805. A structure of a declining wave to 1.0705 is forming. After reaching this level, a correction link to 1.0760 cannot be ruled out (a test from below). Next, a decline to 1.0655 could follow. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and a potential drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
10 Dec

Currency Speculators raised their British Pound bets into bullish level

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (19,560 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (17,363 contracts), the Australian Dollar (13,538 contracts), the EuroFX (9,195 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,971 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (5,394 contracts), the Japanese Yen (4,281 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (3,159 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,437 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (857 contracts) also experiencing positive weeks.

The only currency (cryptocurrency) seeing a decline in speculator bets on the week was the Bitcoin with a dip by -505 contracts.

Currency Speculators raise their British Pound bets into bullish level

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is the continued gains in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling. The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by almost +20,000 contracts, following up on last week’s gain by +18,203 contracts. The GBP speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and by a total of +32,036 contracts over that period.

This bullishness has brought the net speculator standing (currently at +11,665 contracts) back into an overall bullish level for the first time since September 26th.

The British Pound Sterling’s exchange rate with the US Dollar took a breather this week after gaining for three consecutive weeks and touching over the 1.2700 level. The Sterling’s exchange descended this week to the major psychological support level of 1.2500 but managed to bounce from that major support back up to 1.2551 to close out the week.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Dec-05-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index40,4513619,94458-19,56145-3835
EUR756,61565152,36085-188,9291836,56937
GBP218,8734811,66564-11,9833931859
JPY267,48287-104,95614106,21887-1,26251
CHF60,35696-17,852823,71383-5,86140
CAD197,79159-57,8481163,29091-5,44211
AUD195,56954-57,6813654,899582,78259
NZD54,73268-16,4501315,215791,23565
MXN257,0535873,45684-78,636155,18044
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL72,4875950,244100-52,08911,84552
Bitcoin23,035100-2,250331,387086333

 

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (100 percent) and the EuroFX (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (84 percent), British Pound (64 percent) and the US Dollar Index (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (8 percent),  the Canadian Dollar (11 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (13 percent) and the Japanese Yen (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (58.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (56.8 percent)
EuroFX (85.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (63.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (50.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (14.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (7.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (1.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (36.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (12.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (84.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (79.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (99.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (77.1 percent)
Bitcoin (32.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (40.1 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (58 percent) and the EuroFX (29 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Australian Dollar (23 percent), the Mexican Peso (22 percent) and the British Pound (21 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Bitcoin (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent), Canadian Dollar (-8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-0.1 percent)
EuroFX (28.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (25.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (21.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (2.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-2.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.6 percent)
Swiss Franc (-7.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-9.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-7.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-12.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-35.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (21.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (12.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (58.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-27.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-31.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 857 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,087 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.717.37.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.465.78.1
– Net Position:19,944-19,561-383
– Gross Longs:28,1997,0092,891
– Gross Shorts:8,25526,5703,274
– Long to Short Ratio:3.4 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.244.74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.51.5-14.8

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 152,360 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 9,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 143,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.153.511.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.078.46.5
– Net Position:152,360-188,92936,569
– Gross Longs:235,684404,55085,929
– Gross Shorts:83,324593,47949,360
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):85.218.537.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:28.6-30.322.1

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 19,560 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.349.913.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.055.312.9
– Net Position:11,665-11,983318
– Gross Longs:66,359109,11228,621
– Gross Shorts:54,694121,09528,303
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.939.058.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.0-22.017.7

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -104,956 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,281 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -109,237 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.668.815.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.829.116.1
– Net Position:-104,956106,218-1,262
– Gross Longs:28,266184,15641,899
– Gross Shorts:133,22277,93843,161
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.086.950.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.90.78.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -17,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,437 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.269.921.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.830.630.7
– Net Position:-17,85223,713-5,861
– Gross Longs:3,73242,16412,655
– Gross Shorts:21,58418,45118,516
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.982.540.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.8-6.222.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,394 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,242 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.071.414.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:39.239.417.4
– Net Position:-57,84863,290-5,442
– Gross Longs:19,753141,25929,036
– Gross Shorts:77,60177,96934,478
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.591.010.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.76.0-1.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -57,681 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 13,538 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -71,219 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.863.613.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.335.512.2
– Net Position:-57,68154,8992,782
– Gross Longs:32,886124,38826,639
– Gross Shorts:90,56769,48923,857
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):36.058.459.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.3-33.145.2

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -16,450 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,609 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.666.49.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.638.66.7
– Net Position:-16,45015,2151,235
– Gross Longs:11,79636,3584,902
– Gross Shorts:28,24621,1433,667
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):12.679.464.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.4-1.952.7

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,971 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,485 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.451.82.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.882.40.7
– Net Position:73,456-78,6365,180
– Gross Longs:108,921133,0636,872
– Gross Shorts:35,465211,6991,692
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 14.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.014.544.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:21.7-22.818.2

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,244 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,881 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.021.24.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:4.793.12.2
– Net Position:50,244-52,0891,845
– Gross Longs:53,67415,3683,437
– Gross Shorts:3,43067,4571,592
– Long to Short Ratio:15.6 to 10.2 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):99.70.651.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:58.5-56.91.2

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -505 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:77.78.27.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.52.23.4
– Net Position:-2,2501,387863
– Gross Longs:17,9071,8951,641
– Gross Shorts:20,157508778
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 13.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.5100.032.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.046.4-0.7

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
09 Dec

Speculator Extremes: Brazil Real & 2-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Brazil Real


The Brazil Real speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Brazil Real speculator level is currently at a 99.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 58.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 50,244 net contracts this week with a gain of 17,363 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is now at a 99.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 13.5 this week. The speculator position registered 511,780 net contracts this week with a weekly decline of -15,457 contracts in speculator bets.

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Steel speculator level resides at a 98.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 20.9 this week. The overall speculator position was -167 net contracts this week with an edge higher by 66 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The 1-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 45.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 86,967 net contracts this week with a boost of 135,716 contracts in the speculator bets.

Nikkei 225 Yen


The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Nikkei 225 Yen speculator level sits at a 88.1 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 31.6 this week.

The speculator position was 17,459 net contracts this week with an increase of 2,394 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

2-Year Bond


The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,476,016 net contracts this week with a drop of -187,185 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.3 this week. The speculator position was -267,855 net contracts this week with a downfall of -9,960 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Palladium speculator level resides at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The overall speculator position was -11,252 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,081 contracts in the speculator bets.

Soybeans


The Soybeans speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Soybeans speculator level is at a 1.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.3 this week. The speculator position was 20,298 net contracts this week with a decline by -30,399 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 2.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -26.9 this week. The speculator position was -1,429,427 net contracts this week with a drop by -30,927 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
06 Dec

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA

By ForexTime 

  • EURUSD closes below 200-day SMA
  • Bearish momentum building on D1 chart​​​​​​​
  • Data heavy week could rock currency pair
  • Key levels of interest at 1.0850, 1.0770 and 1.0700

The EURUSD entered standby mode on Wednesday after closing below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in three months.

Euro bears seem to be making a return after dragging prices from a multi-month high at 1.1016 with the recent breakdown below the 1.0830 level supporting the bearish case.

Zooming out on the weekly charts, the negative momentum could pick up after bulls failed to conquer the 1.0960 level which has acted as significant resistance in the past.

On the monthly charts, it’s still the same old story for the EURUSD with major support at 1.0500 and resistance at 1.1060.

The real action is back on the daily charts, especially after the daily close below 1.0830. Although prices are no longer trading within the bullish channel, some support can be seen around the 100-day SMA.

A potential breakout opportunity could be on the horizon with the right fundamental spark. Given how this is a data-heavy week for both Europe and the United States, this could translate to increased volatility on the EURUSD – especially on Friday when the NFP is released.

  • Should prices secure a strong daily close below 1.0770, this could open a path towards the 50-day SMA at 1.0700 and 1.0550.

  • A move back above the 200-day that pushes prices beyond 1.0850 could spark a move toward 1.0950 and 1.1030, respectively.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions
05 Dec

USDJPY bears eye weekly support

By ForexTime 

  • USDJPY under pressure on D1/H4 timeframe
  • Weekly support next key point of interest
  • 4 potential targets identified on the H4 chart

The USDJPY could be on the cusp of creating a new impulse wave in the current downtrend.

Bulls tried to reach the weekly resistance level yesterday but were unable to shake the bearish resolve. Prices seem to be picking up negative momentum and might be heading south to a weekly support level at 144.758.

Looking at the structure of the market on a lower time frame for better timing, the H4 chart proves to give valuable insight. The potential bearish momentum is confirmed by the price being below the 50 Linear Weighted Moving Average with both the Momentum Oscillator and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in bearish terrain.

The weekly resistance level might be re-tested but if it holds and the price reaches the 146.226 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to the trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 146.226 and dragging it to just above the last lower top at 147.452, four possible targets can be established:

  • The first potential target is at 145.736 (Target 1). This target will mainly be for risk management.

  • The second price target is likely at 145.490 (Target 2) and now the risk of the overall position should be almost none.

  • The third price target is possible at 145.000 (Target 3), just before the weekly support level.

  • The fourth and last price target is feasible at 144.387 (Target 4) if the bears manage to break through the next weekly support level.

If the price at 147.452 is broken, this scenario is no longer applicable.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

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Financial News Forex and Currency News
03 Dec

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 28th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the weekly gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (18,203 contracts) with the EuroFX (13,511 contracts) also rising by more than 10,000 contracts followed by the Australian Dollar (6,751 contracts), Mexican Peso (6,554 contracts) and the Canadian Dollar (2,198 contracts).

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Japanese Yen (-3,783 contracts), US Dollar Index (-1,610 contracts), Brazilian Real (-1,001 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (-2,755 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,295 contracts) and Bitcoin (-869 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators push British Pound and Euro bets higher

Highlighting the COT currency’s data is this week’s boost in the speculator positioning for the British Pound Sterling and the Euro. Both of these currencies saw speculator positions rise by over +10,000 weekly contracts. Helping out both the Sterling and the Euro positioning has been a dent in the outlook for the US Dollar.

The US inflation numbers continue to moderate and market watchers are expecting the US Federal Reserve to hold their interest rates steady. According to the Fed Watch tool, expectations are currently 98 percent for a rate hold at the December meeting and when looking out over the next year, investors are starting to expect rate decreases in 2024.

The Pound Sterling speculative positioning rose this week by over +18,000 contracts and has gained in three out of the past four weeks. The GBP speculative level has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eight weeks at a total of -7,895 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate has been following suit with a price close this week at the highest level since August. The GBPUSD has bounced off the 1.2100 major support in recent months and has accelerated higher (+5% in November) with a close over the 1.2700 to end the week.

The Euro speculator position, meanwhile, jumped by over +13,000 contracts this week as well and has now risen for seven consecutive weeks. The Euro position has gained by a total of +67,633 contracts over this past 7-week period to reach a 13-week high point at +143,165 contracts. The Euro (EURUSD) exchange rate to the US Dollar has also had a strong couple of months with the EURUSD currency pair bouncing off the 1.5500 major support to challenge the 1.1000 level. This week the EURUSD was rejected at the 1.1000 level and closed at 1.0879.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-28-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index39,3593319,08757-18,29247-7950
EUR727,13848143,16581-176,3152333,15032
GBP217,37247-7,8955010,06451-2,16954
JPY260,78182-109,23712103,692865,54565
CHF60,47996-20,289126,69188-6,40238
CAD200,86461-63,242667,53794-4,29513
AUD197,05355-71,2192473,78973-2,57046
NZD51,46060-19,609420,20891-59943
MXN247,5035465,48579-71,441195,95649
RUB20,93047,54331-7,15069-39324
BRL108,74910032,88177-29,23029-3,6510
Bitcoin23,027100-1,74540792095335

 

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Mexican Peso

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (81 percent) and the Mexican Peso (79 percent) were leading the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (77 percent), US Dollar Index (57 percent) and the British Pound (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Swiss Franc (1 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (4 percent), the Canadian Dollar (6 percent) and the Japanese Yen (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (56.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (59.5 percent)
EuroFX (81.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (50.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (37.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (11.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (13.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (1.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (4.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (4.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (23.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (4.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (11.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (79.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (75.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (77.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (78.4 percent)
Bitcoin (40.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (53.2 percent)

 

Brazilian Real & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (38 percent) and the EuroFX (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Mexican Peso (13 percent), the Australian Dollar (9 percent) and the British Pound (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-31 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-0.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.0 percent)
EuroFX (25.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (23.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (2.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-3.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-3.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (8.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-1.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-33.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (12.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (4.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (38.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (38.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-31.2 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-30.5 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,087 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,610 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.217.16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.763.69.0
– Net Position:19,087-18,292-795
– Gross Longs:28,7986,7462,735
– Gross Shorts:9,71125,0383,530
– Long to Short Ratio:3.0 to 10.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.846.70.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.13.9-28.5

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 143,165 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,511 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 129,654 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:32.153.511.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.477.76.8
– Net Position:143,165-176,31533,150
– Gross Longs:233,454388,78482,613
– Gross Shorts:90,289565,09949,463
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.323.231.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:25.9-28.022.2

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,895 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 18,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,098 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.254.412.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:31.849.813.0
– Net Position:-7,89510,064-2,169
– Gross Longs:61,296118,25326,067
– Gross Shorts:69,191108,18928,236
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.351.353.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.3-5.512.9

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -109,237 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.769.117.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:53.629.314.9
– Net Position:-109,237103,6925,545
– Gross Longs:30,461180,13444,382
– Gross Shorts:139,69876,44238,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.4 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.685.764.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.6-4.231.0

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -20,289 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,994 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.173.019.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.728.930.0
– Net Position:-20,28926,691-6,402
– Gross Longs:4,30044,14511,754
– Gross Shorts:24,58917,45418,156
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.5 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.087.938.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.1-6.624.7

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -63,242 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,198 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -65,440 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:9.571.415.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:40.937.817.3
– Net Position:-63,24267,537-4,295
– Gross Longs:18,991143,46430,505
– Gross Shorts:82,23375,92734,800
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.093.713.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.310.9-6.1

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -71,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 6,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -77,970 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.866.612.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.029.113.7
– Net Position:-71,21973,789-2,570
– Gross Longs:29,203131,21324,361
– Gross Shorts:100,42257,42426,931
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.672.746.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.7-17.633.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -19,609 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,755 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,854 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.671.77.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.732.48.4
– Net Position:-19,60920,208-599
– Gross Longs:10,10436,8983,703
– Gross Shorts:29,71316,6904,302
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.2 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):4.390.742.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.728.513.8

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 65,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.853.13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.382.00.8
– Net Position:65,485-71,4415,956
– Gross Longs:105,838131,5437,840
– Gross Shorts:40,353202,9841,884
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 14.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.118.849.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.9-14.520.8

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 32,881 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,001 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend (Possible Trend Change)

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.145.73.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.872.57.0
– Net Position:32,881-29,230-3,651
– Gross Longs:52,26049,6643,934
– Gross Shorts:19,37978,8947,585
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.129.40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:38.1-30.4-48.6

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,745 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -869 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -876 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:82.45.87.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:90.02.43.2
– Net Position:-1,745792953
– Gross Longs:18,9791,3441,688
– Gross Shorts:20,724552735
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 12.4 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):40.190.734.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-31.248.66.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
02 Dec

Speculator Extremes: SOFR-3M, Steel, Corn & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro 

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on November 28th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate


The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 18.1 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 527,237 net contracts this week with a rise of 27,337 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Steel


The Steel speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is now at a 98.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 21.8 this week. The speculator position registered -233 net contracts this week with a weekly gain of 682 contracts in speculator bets.

Heating Oil


The Heating Oil speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Heating Oil speculator level resides at a 90.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 37,349 net contracts this week with a boost of 7,447 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures


The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is at a 83.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 0.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 71,646 net contracts this week with a dip of -1,193 contracts in the speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index


The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level sits at a 81.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.9 this week.

The speculator position was -6,452 net contracts this week with an edge lower by -94 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Corn


The Corn speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Corn speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -157,148 net contracts this week with a drop of -33,142 contracts in the speculator bets.

Wheat


The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.4 this week. The speculator position was -97,204 net contracts this week with a decline of -19,673 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

E-mini SP MidCap400

The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The E-mini SP MidCap400 speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -48.4 this week. The overall speculator position was -1,486 net contracts this week with a slide of -616 contracts in the speculator bets.

Swiss Franc


The Swiss Franc speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The Swiss Franc speculator level is at a 1.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -9.1 this week. The speculator position was -20,289 net contracts this week with a decrease of -1,295 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note


Finally, the Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 1.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -3.1 this week. The speculator position was -257,895 net contracts this week with a decrease of -23,489 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
28 Nov

USDInd slips below weekly support

By ForexTime 

  • USD Index busy with a D1 downtrend
  • Broken weekly support may turn to resistance level
  • H4 bearish scenario triggered if 103.060 price level breached
  • Three potential targets identified on the H4 chart.
  • Bearish scenario invalidated if prices push back above 103.510

Dollar bears could be enticed to drag prices lower after the USD Index slipped below a weekly support level.

This development may signal the resumption of the downtrend, especially if the new weekly resistance level strengthens the bearish resolve –  causing the negative momentum to build as a result.

The H4 chart confirms the overall bearish dominance with the Momentum Oscillator below the 100 baseline in negative terrain and the price being lower than the 50 Exponential Moving Average.

If the weekly resistance level holds and the price reaches the 103.060 level, a short opportunity will be triggered.

Attaching a modified Fibonacci tool to a trigger level just below the last lower bottom at 103.060 and dragging it to just above the last lower top, three possible targets can be established:

The first potential target is at 102.611 (Target 1). This target will help with risk management.

The second price target is likely at 102.027 (Target 2).

The third and last price target is possible at 101.487 (Target 3), just before the next weekly support level.

If the price at 103.510 is broken, this scenario is no longer appropriate.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
27 Nov

The USD Experiences a Downturn as EUR/USD Rises

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair saw an uptick, reaching 1.0944 at the onset of the final week of November. This movement indicates a weakening of the US dollar against the Euro.

Key to this shift is the upcoming release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a crucial measure watched closely by the US Federal Reserve. The Core PCE index, reflecting the primary personal spending of US citizens, is a significant indicator for the Federal Reserve in shaping its credit and monetary policies. The index had previously shown a 0.3% month-over-month increase, but expectations for October point to a potential slowdown to a 0.2% rise.

A slowdown in inflation, as indicated by the Core PCE index, could lead to a softer stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate hikes. This prospect could further contribute to the weakening of the US dollar. From a broader perspective, a decrease in inflation is generally viewed positively for the economy, as it eases financial pressures on consumers and businesses.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair

In the H4 chart of the EUR/USD pair, a consolidation pattern around 1.0940 has emerged, suggesting a potential breakout. The analysis predicts an upward move to 1.0990, followed by a possible pullback to 1.0940, and then another rise to 1.1030. This bullish outlook is supported by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which shows its signal line above zero and oriented upwards.

Similarly, the H1 chart for the EUR/USD pair displays a narrow consolidation around 1.0940. The market is anticipated to break upwards from this range, possibly reaching a local target of 1.0990. Upon hitting this level, a correction back to 1.0940 is expected. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80, suggests the potential for a downward adjustment towards 50, supporting this forecast.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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