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EUR/USD Braces for Pivotal Week Ahead: An In-Depth Look

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair kicked off the week on a vibrant note, trading around 1.0720. The days ahead promise a series of impactful events that could influence the pair’s trajectory.

In the U.S., critical inflation data for August is set to be released this week. Year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are expected to have increased to 3.6%, up from 3.2% the prior month. On the eve of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, this uptick could bring mixed sentiments. In contrast, core inflation is projected to decline to 4.3% year-over-year from the previous 4.7%.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to convene on Thursday to determine interest rate policy. Given the precarious state of the Eurozone’s economy, the consensus expectation is that the ECB will opt to maintain its current interest rate of 3.75% per annum. Any statements or actions from the ECB are expected to significantly influence the euro’s value.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD recently completed a downward wave at 1.0686. In the short term, the market could experience a corrective rally towards 1.0755. Upon reaching this level, a fresh downward structure targeting 1.0680 may ensue. Subsequently, a bullish wave could set its sights on 1.0911. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator lends technical support to this scenario; its signal line is currently below zero but appears to be gearing up for an upward move.

On the 1-hour chart, a consolidation zone has taken shape around 1.0720. The market at one point extended this range upward and could potentially trend towards 1.0755. Once this price level is attained, a downward movement towards 1.0680 may commence. This viewpoint gains technical validation from the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line has recently recoiled from the 80 mark and is now oriented downward, possibly heading towards the 20 level.

In summary, the EUR/USD pair faces a week rich in potential catalysts, with key data releases and policy meetings in both the U.S. and Eurozone. Both short-term and medium-term technical analyses suggest a mixed outlook, with opportunities for both upward corrections and renewed declines. Keep a close eye on economic indicators and central bank actions as they could drastically alter the landscape.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Sep

Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Bitcoin

The COT currency market speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (1,337 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (536 contracts) and Bitcoin (532 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-13,352 contracts), EuroFX (-10,448 contracts), Canadian Dollar (-9,202 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,342 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,624 contracts), Brazilian Real (-2,655 contracts), the British Pound (-2,017 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (-807 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Large Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the continued weakness of the speculator’s positioning for the Australian dollar. Large speculative currency positions for the Aussie dropped this week by over -13,000 net contracts and fell for the fourth consecutive week as well as for the ninth time out of the past ten weeks.

The AUD positioning has now shed a total of -40,345 contracts over these past four weeks and this has brought the overall net speculator standing (currently at -83,352 contracts) to the lowest level in the past eighty weeks, dating back to February 2nd of 2022 when the net position was -84,080 contracts. The 3-Year Strength Index is showing a 7.4 percent score for the AUD, marking an extreme bearish reading for speculators this week.

The Australian dollar has been in a downtrend over the course in 2023 after opening the year at approximately the 0.6815 exchange rate and this week touched the lowest level since November of 2022 at a low of 0.6360.

Hurting the AUD’s exchange against the US Dollar is the interest rate disparity and the possible future divergence of the central banks with the US Federal Reserve possibly continuing to raise its benchmark rate (currently at 5.25-5.50%) while the Reserve Bank of Australia is assumed to be finished boosting its rate (currently at 4.10%).

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-05-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	36,579	26	3,359	31	-5,005	68	1,646	26
EUR	754,263	65	136,231	77	-175,854	24	39,623	42
GBP	225,404	52	46,384	88	-49,955	18	3,571	65
JPY	268,344	90	-97,136	12	105,867	87	-8,731	36
CHF	46,670	59	-5,325	42	10,687	59	-5,362	42
CAD	189,660	55	-24,963	31	29,461	76	-4,498	13
AUD	241,201	100	-83,537	7	95,366	90	-11,829	24
NZD	56,462	79	-14,000	16	17,291	87	-3,291	11
MXN	246,061	54	67,521	80	-71,732	19	4,211	38
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	34,871	19	13,933	54	-15,569	46	1,636	50
Bitcoin	14,962	69	2,039	100	-2,534	0	495	24

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bitcoin (100 percent) and the British Pound (88 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Mexican Peso (80 percent), EuroFX (77 percent) and the Brazilian Real (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar (7 percent), the Japanese Yen (12 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (30.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (29.6 percent)
EuroFX (77.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (81.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (88.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (89.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (12.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (44.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (31.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (7.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (19.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.5 percent)
Mexican Peso (80.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (84.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (53.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (56.9 percent)
Bitcoin (100.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (91.8 percent)

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (42 percent) and the Swiss Franc (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The New Zealand Dollar (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-30 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-28 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-23 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-4.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-13.7 percent)
EuroFX (-17.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-13.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-8.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-10.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-4.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (15.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-28.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-15.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (-30.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-35.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-18.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-12.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-22.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.1 percent)
Bitcoin (41.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (41.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 3,359 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 536 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,823 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.6	20.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	34.0	8.0
– Net Position:	3,359	-5,005	1,646
– Gross Longs:	22,881	7,448	4,587
– Gross Shorts:	19,522	12,453	2,941
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.5	67.8	25.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.5	2.1	16.9

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 136,231 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 146,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.3	53.9	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.2	77.2	6.7
– Net Position:	136,231	-175,854	39,623
– Gross Longs:	235,732	406,485	90,003
– Gross Shorts:	99,501	582,339	50,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	77.1	23.7	42.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.2	21.8	-27.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 46,384 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,401 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.1	37.3	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.5	59.5	13.4
– Net Position:	46,384	-49,955	3,571
– Gross Longs:	92,645	84,129	33,867
– Gross Shorts:	46,261	134,084	30,296
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	88.0	17.7	65.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	15.1	-28.3

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,337 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,473 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.8	71.1	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.0	31.7	16.3
– Net Position:	-97,136	105,867	-8,731
– Gross Longs:	37,014	190,804	34,930
– Gross Shorts:	134,150	84,937	43,661
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.3	87.3	35.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	9.4	0.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,325 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -807 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.6	48.2	26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.0	25.3	37.6
– Net Position:	-5,325	10,687	-5,362
– Gross Longs:	11,494	22,508	12,168
– Gross Shorts:	16,819	11,821	17,530
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.9	59.1	41.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	13.1	-37.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -24,963 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,202 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	24.1	54.8	17.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	39.3	19.5
– Net Position:	-24,963	29,461	-4,498
– Gross Longs:	45,761	103,959	32,462
– Gross Shorts:	70,724	74,498	36,960
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	76.2	12.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-28.4	35.1	-46.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -83,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -70,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.4	60.6	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	21.1	14.9
– Net Position:	-83,537	95,366	-11,829
– Gross Longs:	54,032	146,176	24,035
– Gross Shorts:	137,569	50,810	35,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.9 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.4	90.1	23.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.0	34.2	-32.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,624 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	60.3	5.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.6	29.7	11.0
– Net Position:	-14,000	17,291	-3,291
– Gross Longs:	16,847	34,068	2,947
– Gross Shorts:	30,847	16,777	6,238
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	87.2	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.4	40.7	-50.0

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 67,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 73,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	51.8	2.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	80.9	1.2
– Net Position:	67,521	-71,732	4,211
– Gross Longs:	100,298	127,372	7,084
– Gross Shorts:	32,777	199,104	2,873
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.3	18.6	38.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.4	12.1	-0.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,933 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,588 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	30.6	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.8	75.3	4.8
– Net Position:	13,933	-15,569	1,636
– Gross Longs:	20,473	10,681	3,318
– Gross Shorts:	6,540	26,250	1,682
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	53.5	45.5	49.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	20.2	15.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,039 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 532 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.8	0.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.1	17.6	4.8
– Net Position:	2,039	-2,534	495
– Gross Longs:	11,933	105	1,218
– Gross Shorts:	9,894	2,639	723
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.0 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	24.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.6	-64.3	-7.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

09 Sep

Speculator Extremes: Bitcoin, Cocoa, MSCI EAFE lead Bullish & Bearish Bets

By InvestMacro
The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on September 5th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Bitcoin speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 41.6 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 2,039 net contracts this week with a change of 532 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Cocoa Futures

The Cocoa Futures speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Cocoa Futures speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 8.7 this week. The speculator position registered 86,220 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 2,999 contracts in speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The 3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate speculator level resides at a 96.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 18.2 this week. The overall speculator position was 272,072 net contracts this week with a change of -53,150 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is at a 95.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 25.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 38,737 net contracts this week with a change of -715 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound

The British Pound speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level sits at a 88.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.8 this week.

The speculator position was 46,384 net contracts this week with a change of -2,017 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -8.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -38,079 net contracts this week with a change of -11,282 contracts in the speculator bets.

Palladium

The Palladium speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.9 this week. The speculator position was -11,021 net contracts this week with a change of -1,045 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Corn

The Corn speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Corn speculator level resides at a 2.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -19.0 this week. The overall speculator position was -45,632 net contracts this week with a change of -9,819 contracts in the speculator bets.

2-Year Bond

The 2-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 2-Year Bond speculator level is at a 3.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The speculator position was -1,217,890 net contracts this week with a change of -48,034 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

10-Year Note

Finally, the 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 5.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -16.3 this week. The speculator position was -791,535 net contracts this week with a change of 14,018 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Sep

Week Ahead: Will EURUSD slip below 1.0670?

By ForexTime

Get ready for another wild week for global financial markets thanks to key economic data releases and high-risk events!

Inflation data from the largest economy in the world will be in focus along with a rate decision from the ECB.

But before we identify what asset to keep an eye on, here’s a rundown of the scheduled data and events for the upcoming week:

Monday, September 11

CNH: China aggregate financing
EUR: EU releases updated economic forecasts
GBP: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speech

Tuesday, September 12

AUD: Australia consumer confidence
EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations
GBP: UK jobless claims, unemployment

Wednesday, September 13

EUR: Eurozone industrial production
JPY: Japan PPI
GBP: UK industrial production
USD: US August CPI

Thursday, September 14

AUD: Australia unemployment
EUR: ECB rate decision
JPY: Japan machinery orders, industrial production
USD: US retail sales, PPI, initial jobless claims

Friday, September 15

CNH: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production
CAD: Canada existing home sales
USD: Industrial production, University of Michigan consumer sentiment

We could see some thrilling trading opportunities as high-risk events unfold across financial markets. However, all eyes will be on the world’s most popular traded currency which is primed to be heavily influenced by the ECB rate decision and key US reports.

Before we dissect the factors that could trigger a significant move in the EURUSD, it’s worth noting that prices remain heavily bearish on the H4 charts. The euro has shed over 1% against the dollar since the start of September with prices approaching key support at 1.0670. The events in the upcoming week may dictate whether prices experience a breakdown or rebound.

Here are 3 reasons why the EURUSD has our attention:

ECB meeting

The ECB rate decision on Thursday, September 14 is expected to be a close call.

Markets seem to be betting against the European Central Bank raising interest rates by 25 basis points next week with traders currently pricing in a 35% probability. This jumps to 58% by October and 70% by December.

Although inflation remains sticky, economic data across the region continues to disappoint which has raised questions around how much headroom the ECB has left to keep raising rates. However, ECB policymakers have warned investors that the decision to hike rates was still up in the air. Given how this meeting will be complemented with fresh projections for inflation and GDP, the EURUSD could be thrown on a rollercoaster ride.

The euro could push higher if the ECB moves ahead with a rate hike, but gains may be capped if the central bank signals that this will be the final one in 2023.
A cautious-sounding ECB that leaves rates unchanged and provides little detail over what its next steps will be may send the euro tumbling.
We could see a mixed reaction on the euro if the ECB leaves rates unchanged but signals a possible hike at its next meeting.

Top-tier US data dump

Throughout the week, investors will be dished out key US economic reports which could impact the EURUSD.

But it will be wise to keep a close eye on the latest US inflation and retail sales figures which could impact Fed hike expectations.

August’s CPI report will be published on Wednesday, September 13th, and is expected to illustrate a mixed picture. While the headline print is forecast to rise, the core CPI is seen moderating month-on-month and even falling to 4.3% year-on-year versus the 4.7% prior. Regarding US retail sales, this is projected to rise 0.1% versus the prior 0.7%. Ultimately, more signs of cooling inflationary pressures and disappointing economic data may support the argument that the Fed has already ended its hiking cycle.

Should the US inflation report and overall US economic data print below market expectations, this may weaken the dollar – pushing the EURUSD higher.
If the incoming US inflation prints above market forecasts and overall US economic data prints above expectations, the dollar could receive a boost – dragging the EURUSD lower.

Bearish technical forces

Since conquering the 1.0800 support level, euro bears have stepped into higher gear with prices slowly approaching the 1.0670 support level.

The EURUSD is heavily bearish on the daily charts with the candlesticks trading below the 50,100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is signaling that prices are oversold on the daily timeframe.

A breakdown could be on the horizon with a solid close below 1.0670 opening a path towards levels not seen since March 2023 at 1.0520.
Should 1.0670 prove to be reliable support, the EURUSD may rebound back towards 1.0800 – a level below the 200-day SMA.

Zooming out on the weekly charts, we see a similar picture with bears eyeing the 1.0670 level. A solid weekly close below this point may see prices test 1.0520 and 1.0310, respectively. If bulls can bounce back, prices may re-test 1.0900 and 1.1180, respectively.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

07 Sep

JPY devaluation persists. Overview for 07.09.2023

By RoboForex.com

The Japanese yen, paired with the US dollar, remains weak. The current USDJPY exchange rate stands at 147.52.

From January this year until now, the yen has depreciated by more than 12%.

The US Dollar easily gains ground against the JPY without encountering resistance. When might the yen have a chance for recovery? This depends on the Bank of Japan making a resolute decision to abandon its ultra-soft monetary policy.

On the other hand, it is essential for the US dollar to become less enticing to buyers. For this to occur, the prospects for the US economy must become less attractive from the perspective of bullish investors. Visible signs of a slowdown in the US economy, such as a slight cooling in the job market or the potential for lower interest rates, are not enough to weaken the dollar.

Domestic data in Japan points to a deteriorating situation. Household spending in July declined by 2.7% m/m, contrary to the forecast of 0.7% growth and a previous rise of 0.9%. On an annual basis, the indicator dropped by 5.0%, which is twice as weak as expected.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Sep

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.09.07

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0722
Prev Close: 1.0726
% chg. over the last day: +0.04 %

The ECB’s hawkish comments on Wednesday helped keep the Euro from falling too much. Peter Kažimír, a representative of the ECB Governing Council, said that the ECB needs to raise interest rates again to make sure inflation returns to 2%, and a rate hike in September is preferable to a later increase. Another representative of the ECB Governing Council, Klaas Knot, also warned that markets may be underestimating the likelihood of the ECB raising rates next week.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0714, 1.0659
Resistance levels: 1.0767, 1.0781, 1.0827, 1.0842, 1.0881, 1.0943, 1.1004

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is a downtrend. The price has reached the daily support level and is now forming a flat accumulation. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the selling pressure is weak, while the divergence has increased. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be looked for from the support level of 1.0714 but with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell traders can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0767 or 1.0781 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative. The reverse initiative means the sellers’ reaction in the form of an engulfing candlestick or when a pin bar is formed.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.0893 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.09.07:

– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone GDP (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 23:55 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2564
Prev Close: 1.2747 1.2506
% chg. over the last day: -0.46 %

The British pound declined sharply against the dollar yesterday and fell to a three-month low. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested at a hearing before the Senate that UK interest rates may not need to be raised again, saying that a “marked” decline in inflation is likely this year and that monetary policy is probably “near the top of the cycle.” This is extremely negative for the British currency, as prior to the hearing, analysts were expecting at least two rate hikes from the Bank of England at 0.25%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2491, 1.2458, 1.2307
Resistance levels: 1.2549, 1.2611, 1.2659, 1.2712, 1.2733, 1.2746, 1.2764

According to technical analysis, the GBP/USD currency pair trend on the hourly time frame is bearish. The British pound reached the daily support level, but the reaction of buyers is weak. Now, the price is forming a flat accumulation, and there is a high probability of a price decline to the 1.2458 level. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone but with signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.2491 or 1.2458 but with additional confirmation on the lower time frames in the form of impulse initiative of buyers. Sell trades are best considered from the resistance level of 1.2549 but with confirmation in the form of sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.2642 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 147.64
Prev Close: 147.65
% chg. over the last day: +0.01 %

Japan’s chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, warned that Tokyo sees evidence of unwanted movements in the currency market and claims that fundamentals cannot explain such movements. The well-known ‘carry trade,’ utilizing the interest rate differential between the two currencies, has been going on for a long time, with markets still anticipating the likelihood of another 25bp Fed rate hike before the end of the rate hike cycle. Warnings from Tokyo suggest possible intervention. Analysts see the 150 mark as a level above which the BoJ could intervene. The USD/JPY price has already passed the first intervention level seen in 2022, and the second level is below 152.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 147.41,147.03, 146.23, 145.69, 145.39, 145.00
Resistance levels: 147.81, 148.80

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price starts to form a wide volatile corridor with the boundaries of 147.03-147.71. At the same time, buyers’ pressure prevails inside the accumulation. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but without signs of bullish pressure. Buying trades should be sought on intraday time frames after a pullback to the support level of 147.41. But it should be understood that it will be an entry in the middle of the accumulation. Such trades are considered highly risky. In case of a stronger decline, expect the price at the 147.03 support level. Sell trades can be considered from the 147.81 resistance level but with confirmation in the form of a false breakout and change of structure on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the support level of 145.00, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1925.84
Prev Close: 1916.63
% chg. over the last day: -0.47 %

Precious metals prices closed moderately lower on Wednesday, with gold falling to a one-week low and silver to a 2-week low. The dollar index rally to a 5-month high on Wednesday was bearish for metals. In addition, the rise in global bond yields on Wednesday had a negative impact on precious metals prices. The US economic news on Wednesday supported the dollar after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for August unexpectedly increased by 1.8 to the maximum for 6 months value of 54.5.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1914.37, 1903.87, 1893.80
Resistance levels: 1934.71, 1941.79, 1947.81, 1961.06

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD currency pair is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages for the third consecutive session and approached the priority change level. The MACD indicator remains in the negative zone, but the divergence towards buying is increasing. Under these market conditions, buy trades can be considered after an impulsive breakout of the downtrend line. Sell trades are better to look for from the resistance level of 1928.63 or 1934.63 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and change of structure on intraday time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the support level of 1914.37, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.09.07:

– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Harker Speaks (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks (m/m) at 22:30 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (m/m) at 23:55 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.09.07

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

06 Sep

Mid-Week Technical Outlook: FX Mashup

By ForexTime

Ongoing concerns over China’s economic growth have sent investors rushing toward the dollar with growing bets around US interest rates staying higher for longer supporting upside gains!

The USD Index is lingering around levels not seen in six months and could push higher thanks to technical and fundamental forces. As the dollar continues to flex its muscles, this could mean more pain for G10 currencies which have all depreciated since the start of the week.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on:

Dollar approaches 105.00

The USD Index remains firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows. Prices are trading well above the 50,100 and 200-day SMA while the MACD trades above zero. A solid breakout above 105.00 could open the doors to levels not seen since March 2023 above 105.80. Should 105.00 prove to be reliable resistance, a decline back towards 104.10 and the 200-day SMA could be on the cards.

EURUSD bears in power

After cutting through the 1.0800 support level, euro bears were given the green light to switch into a higher gear. Prices are heavily bearish on the daily charts with the negative momentum opening a potential path towards 1.0670 – a level not hit since June 2023. For bulls to jump back into the game, a solid move back above 1.0800 needs to be achieved. Given how the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching oversold regions, a rebound should not be ruled out.

GBPUSD ready to challenge 200-day SMA?

The recent breakdown below 1.2600 may inspire a further selloff towards the 200-day SMA at 1.2430. Technical indicators remain in favour of bears with prices trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA while the MACD trades below zero. Should prices push back above 1.2600, the GBPUSD may find itself trapped within the previous range with resistance around 1.2800.

AUDUSD tests key support

In our week ahead report last Friday we questioned whether the AUDUSD would experience a double-bottom bounce. Despite prices later tumbling on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates unchanged, the 0.6378 support continues to fend off bears. Should this level hold, prices may rebound back towards 0.6500. Alternatively, a selloff below 0.6378 could see a decline towards 0.6300.

USDJPY breakout strengthens bulls

After breaking and securing a daily close above the 146.70 resistance yesterday, the USDJPY could see further upside from a technical perspective. The next key level of interest can be found at 149.00. A move back below 146.70 may open a path back towards 144.90.

USDCAD gearing for more upside?

With the Bank of Canada rate decision around the corner, the USDCAD could see some heightened volatility today. It may be wise to keep a close eye on the 1.3650 resistance which has held since May 2023. A solid break above this point could trigger a further incline towards 1.3740. Any signs of weakness that take prices away from 1.3650 could invite bears to target 1.3500.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

31 Aug

RoboForex Ltd Clinches the Best Trading Conditions Accolade at the Prestigious International Business Magazine Awards

RoboForex, an esteemed financial brokerage firm, has been bestowed with the highly coveted accolade for ‘Best Trading Conditions’ at the International Business Magazine Awards.

RoboForex Ltd, with its decade-long history of impeccable service, has bagged the esteemed honour this year for its dedication to providing outstanding trading conditions, which is a testament to its commitment to offering optimal trading opportunities to clients worldwide.

Since its inception in 2009, RoboForex has continuously strived to enhance the trading experience for its customers. Its vast trading portfolio is truly impressive, boasting over 12,000 instruments encompassing Stocks, ETFs, Gold, Oil, and Indices, among others. This extensive offering caters to traders of all backgrounds and preferences, regardless of their trading strategies or risk appetites.

But it is not merely the breadth of trading instruments that earned RoboForex this commendation. The company offers incredibly cost-effective conditions, making it the go-to choice for traders around the globe. RoboForex offers commission charges for Stocks starting at only 0.009 USD per share, while the lowest commission for Indices is set at 4 USD for 1 million USD of trading volume. Moreover, the market-based spreads can reach as low as 0 pips – another feature for traders keen on minimising trading costs.

RoboForex has democratised the financial markets, providing access to traders of all levels, thanks to its unbeatable trading conditions. The firm has ensured that the world of trading, often perceived as exclusive, becomes inclusive – a feat that certainly warrants recognition and appreciation.

The ‘Best Trading Conditions’ award is not just an emblem of success; it is a testament to the relentless pursuit of excellence and customer satisfaction by RoboForex. The firm’s constant endeavour to streamline trading processes, optimise performance, and ensure its clientele has access to the best possible conditions has placed it at the forefront of the trading industry.

Discover the award-winning trading conditions at RoboForex and start your trading journey today by visiting the RoboForex official website.

About RoboForex

RoboForex is a company that delivers brokerage services. The company provides traders who work in financial markets with access to its proprietary trading platforms. RoboForex Ltd operates under brokerage licence FSC 000138/437. View more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on the official website roboforex.com.

About International Business Magazine Awards

Established in 2018, the International Business Magazine Awards have quickly become a beacon of recognition within the world of international finance and business, shining a light on companies and organisations that have shown exceptional levels of performance, service quality, and ethical business conduct. The awards are decided by a council comprised of key industry experts, who, along with the event’s jury panel, maintain a strict process to ensure a fair and transparent selection of winners.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Aug

Dollar braces for data-heavy week

By ForexTime

Chinese stocks paved the way higher for Asian shares on Tuesday as optimism from China’s measures to cut stamp duty boosted risk appetite. European futures are pointing to a positive open with the UK returning from a day’s holiday ahead of a data-heavy week for markets. In the commodity space, gold is modestly higher this morning with bulls drawing strength from a softer dollar and falling Treasury yields. Oil markets are flat, waiting for the next fundamental spark as supply concerns counter worries over demand.

US PCE Inflation and NFP in focus

The US dollar was choppy on Tuesday as investors watched on the sidelines ahead of a slew of key US economic releases over the next few days.

Due to the Federal Reserve’s current data dependent stance, every release of US economic data could play a critical role in determining whether the Fed raises rates again in 2023. As a result, close attention will be paid to upcoming releases such as August consumer confidence, Q2 GDP (2nd estimate), and weekly initial jobless claims.

However, the potential market shakers could be Thursday’s PCE inflation data and the NFP report on Friday. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure will be closely scrutinised by investors for more signs of inflationary pressures cooling. Regarding the August NFP report, markets expect the US economy to have added 170,000 jobs in August with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%. Ultimately, a strong set of economic releases may strengthen the argument around the Fed raising rates one more time this year, especially after Powell’s hawkish remarks last Friday.

Regarding the dollar, it has appreciated against every G10 currency this month with the USD Index trading around 104.00 as of writing. Although the trend is bullish on the daily charts, there are early signs of exhaustion with a break under 103.30 encouraging bears to jump back into the scene. Should 104.00 prove to be reliable support, prices could push back above 104.50, rising towards levels not seen since March around 105.00.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Aug

EUR/USD Consolidates Around 1.0810 as Powell’s Speech Influences Market Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD currency pair is entering the final week of August in a phase of consolidation around the 1.0810 level. This follows a speech by Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, during the recent Jackson Hole Symposium in the US. Powell highlighted the Fed’s commitment to raising interest rates continuously to maintain elevated levels of inflation, while also considering the effectiveness of measures already in place.

As a result, the Federal Reserve plans to make necessary interest rate adjustments and maintain a stringent monetary policy until it successfully manages price control.

With a relatively quiet macroeconomic calendar at the beginning of the week, the market is relying on existing factors to determine direction.

Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Currency Pair

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has completed a decline to 1.0765, followed by a corrective structure forming up to 1.0816. Once this correction is complete, there is potential for the decline to continue to 1.0740, a local target. The scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is below zero and pointed downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has undergone a correction to 1.0816, possibly leading to the formation of a consolidation range below that level. If the price breaks out of this range in a downward direction, a new wave of decline to 1.0740 could be formed. This scenario is backed by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line is currently above 80, indicating a potential drop to 50. A break of this level could open the door to a decline towards 20.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 57

Weekly Speculator Changes led by US Dollar Index & Bitcoin

Large Currency Speculators drop Australian Dollar bets for 9th time in 10 weeks

Strength Scores led by Bitcoin & British Pound

Bitcoin & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Euro Currency Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

British Pound Sterling Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Japanese Yen Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Swiss Franc Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Australian Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Mexican Peso Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Brazilian Real Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Bitcoin Futures:

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Bitcoin

Cocoa Futures

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

3-Month Secured Overnight Financing Rate

Heating Oil

British Pound

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

MSCI EAFE MINI

Palladium

Corn

2-Year Bond

10-Year Note

Inflation data from the largest economy in the world will be in focus along with a rate decision from the ECB.

We could see some thrilling trading opportunities as high-risk events unfold across financial markets. However, all eyes will be on the world’s most popular traded currency which is primed to be heavily influenced by the ECB rate decision and key US reports.

Here are 3 reasons why the EURUSD has our attention:

ECB meeting

Top-tier US data dump

Bearish technical forces

The EUR/USD currency pair

The GBP/USD currency pair

The USD/JPY currency pair

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

The USD Index is lingering around levels not seen in six months and could push higher thanks to technical and fundamental forces. As the dollar continues to flex its muscles, this could mean more pain for G10 currencies which have all depreciated since the start of the week.

Here are some technical setups to keep an eye on: