Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 37

14 Aug

USD/JPY Sees Retreat Amid US Dollar Weakness

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY has retreated from its peak this week, settling at 146.82. The yen gained some strength as the US dollar weakened following July’s lacklustre US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This report bolstered market expectations for a potential 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve at its upcoming September meeting.

The focus now shifts to the July US Consumer Price Index (CPI), due for release today. Market participants predict sharp reactions if the data is weaker than expected, reinforcing the case for further rate cuts.

Domestically, the Tankan report indicated a decline in business confidence in Japan in August, likely influenced by reduced demand from China and other external pressures. This decrease to 10 points from 11 reflects Japan’s broader economic challenges.

Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy outlook remains a critical focal point amid recent stock market volatility and decreased carry trade activities involving the yen. While a former BoJ official expressed doubts about the possibility of an interest rate increase this year due to financial market impacts, the broader market remains cautiously optimistic about future monetary tightening.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY forecast shows that the pair is currently consolidating around the 147.00 level. We anticipate a corrective decline to 145.00, followed by a potential rebound towards 152.22. A breach of this level could extend the upward trend towards 159.52. This bullish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which, although its signal line is below zero, suggests downward momentum.

On the hourly chart, USD/JPY continues its corrective phase with a target set at 145.80. The pair is currently stabilising around 146.55, setting the stage for a potential decline to 145.60, and possibly extending the correction to 145.00. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised to move from below the 80 level to the 20 level, suggesting potential further declines.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Aug

NZD/USD gains momentum ahead of RBNZ meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The New Zealand dollar is steadily rising against the US dollar, with the NZD/USD pair reaching 0.6014 as of Monday. The financial markets are gearing up for Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting. Analysts widely anticipate that the RBNZ will maintain the official cash rate at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive time, reflecting ongoing concerns about the robustness of New Zealand’s economy.

Recent data releases have painted a mixed economic picture. The unemployment rate in New Zealand showed a less-than-expected increase in Q2, while inflation expectations dipped to a three-year low for Q3. These factors collectively strengthen the case for potential rate cuts, though it appears unlikely that the RBNZ will adjust rates downward in August, preferring to wait for cues from major global central banks.

Investor attention is also turning towards upcoming US inflation data, which could further influence global monetary policy expectations, particularly Federal Reserve expectations.

Despite challenges in July and August, the NZD has shown commendable resilience, suggesting potential for continued stability and barring significant external shocks.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is developing a consolidation range just above the 0.5983 level. We expect to see an extension of this range to 0.6050, considered a corrective move. According to our NZD/USD forex forecast, the market will likely initiate a downward trend towards 0.5920 following this correction. A breach of this level could open the path to a further decline towards 0.5800. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which, although above zero, points downwards, indicating potential selling pressure.

On the hourly chart, the NZD/USD is crafting the fifth segment of a growth wave aiming for 0.6050, considered a corrective rally. Upon reaching this level, we anticipate a reversal leading to a decrease towards 0.5983, potentially extending the downtrend to 0.5920. This bearish scenario is substantiated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is currently positioned above 80 but shows signs of a forthcoming downturn.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
11 Aug

Speculators sharply pare back Japanese Yen bearish bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly lower overall this week as five out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other six markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (62,106 contracts) with the EuroFX (15,781 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (14,631 contracts), the Swiss Franc (12,447 contracts) and Bitcoin (1,540 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-37,072 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-13,724 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-8,829 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-5,343 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-2,324 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-822 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply pared back Japanese Yen bearish bets

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week was the large move in the Japanese yen speculator position that took place after last week’s (and the previous Friday) early risk-off trades and volatility spikes.

The Japanese yen speculator contracts saw a huge surge of buying with the yen speculator positioning jumping by over +62,000 contracts on the week. This was the highest one-week gain since March 1st of 2011 when the yen rose by +69,020 contracts. The turnaround in yen positions coincided with an enormous volatility event that shook the financial markets with many focusing the risk-off behavior on an unwind of yen carry trades – where traders sell a low-yielding asset like the yen to invest in a higher yielding like the USD to pocket the interest rate difference.

The yen buying and paring of shorts brought the overall speculator standing to just -11,354 contracts through Tuesday. This puts the speculator positioning back to an almost neutral position after the standing had been at least -100,000 contracts for twenty-four straight weeks from February 13th through two weeks ago on July 23rd. Overall, the yen positioning has now continued to remain in a bearish position for 178 consecutive weeks, dating back to March 16th of 2021.

This possibly could be coming to an end as a change in policy by the Bank of Japan and an unwinding of the carry trade may bring some yen strength back into the market or at least dampen the one-way market action. The yen had lost approximately 50 percent of its value against the US Dollar in the past three years with the USDJPY currency pair reaching multi-decade highs above 162.00 before the latest selloff and unwind of the yen short positioning.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (75 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (70 percent), Mexican Peso (64 percent) and the Australian Dollar (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (0 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (9 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (38.4 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (40.2 percent)
EuroFX (34.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (69.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (86.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (64.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (50.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (27.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (6.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (0.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (56.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (64.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (19.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (64.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (0.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (13.0 percent)
Bitcoin (74.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (51.3 percent)

Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (94 percent) and the Swiss Franc (23 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (18 percent), the Bitcoin (17 percent) and the British Pound (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-83 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-31 percent), Canadian Dollar (-27 percent) and the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-3.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-1.4 percent)
EuroFX (17.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (4.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (94.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (43.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (23.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (5.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-21.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (-13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-83.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-61.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-30.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-20.3 percent)
Bitcoin (17.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-4.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 16,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -822 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,958 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:73.817.96.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.455.57.1
– Net Position:16,136-15,827-309
– Gross Longs:30,9967,5022,667
– Gross Shorts:14,86023,3292,976
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.467.37.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.07.5-25.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 33,580 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,799 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.757.611.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.766.27.5
– Net Position:33,580-57,86024,280
– Gross Longs:185,799386,56874,618
– Gross Shorts:152,219444,42850,338
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.667.525.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.9-18.013.9

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,399 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -37,072 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 111,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:56.326.214.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.162.411.8
– Net Position:74,399-81,0806,681
– Gross Longs:126,08058,80033,006
– Gross Shorts:51,681139,88026,325
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):69.529.176.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:13.6-14.312.0

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 62,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -73,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.164.211.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.960.111.4
– Net Position:-11,35412,196-842
– Gross Longs:66,169191,82933,312
– Gross Shorts:77,523179,63334,154
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.079.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:94.0-93.022.3

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,073 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 12,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -34,520 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.068.616.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.226.026.8
– Net Position:-22,07329,131-7,058
– Gross Longs:9,57046,96011,309
– Gross Shorts:31,64317,82918,367
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.147.045.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:23.5-32.932.8

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -181,632 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -196,263 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.681.89.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:60.826.510.5
– Net Position:-181,632185,438-3,806
– Gross Longs:21,993274,24931,460
– Gross Shorts:203,62588,81135,266
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):6.692.519.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.524.30.3

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -40,199 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -8,829 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -31,370 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.450.411.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.327.114.1
– Net Position:-40,19944,743-4,544
– Gross Longs:68,19397,01922,601
– Gross Shorts:108,39252,27627,145
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.849.944.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.917.5-23.2

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -16,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.868.04.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.442.28.1
– Net Position:-16,75119,140-2,389
– Gross Longs:19,84350,4423,611
– Gross Shorts:36,59431,3026,000
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.790.625.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-83.485.4-46.1

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 65,336 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,324 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,660 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.945.62.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.679.22.7
– Net Position:65,336-64,007-1,329
– Gross Longs:96,91686,8133,812
– Gross Shorts:31,580150,8205,141
– Long to Short Ratio:3.1 to 10.6 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):63.538.42.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.7-2.4-15.9

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -54,883 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,724 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.171.83.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:84.412.43.0
– Net Position:-54,88354,127756
– Gross Longs:21,98665,4373,508
– Gross Shorts:76,86911,3102,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 15.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.041.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.928.717.8

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 538 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,540 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:87.02.14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.04.73.6
– Net Position:538-719181
– Gross Longs:23,9545791,164
– Gross Shorts:23,4161,298983
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.4 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.546.417.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.5-24.4-4.6

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
09 Aug

EUR/USD Stabilises Amid Fed Speculation and Absence of Major Economic Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair has found some stability at around 1.0921 this Friday, following a week marked by high volatility. Market participants have been adjusting their positions in response to speculations concerning the US economy’s potential rapid recession and subsequent expectations about the Federal Reserve’s response.

The broader market sentiment has increasingly leaned towards anticipating a significant rate cut by the Fed in September, possibly by 50 basis points. However, the validity of these expectations remains to be seen as the situation evolves.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, recently emphasised that the Federal Reserve’s mandate is not to respond to stock market fluctuations but to focus on its dual objectives of maximising employment and achieving price stability. He also reiterated that the Fed has set specific economic criteria to justify a rate reduction. Goolsbee’s remarks seem to have calmed some of the more erratic market movements.

With no significant economic data released this week, traders have been left to navigate the market based on speculative movements and minor indicators.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The H4 EUR/USD chart shows that the pair has completed an initial downward movement targeting the 1.0880 level, followed by a corrective phase towards 1.0944. Should this correction complete, a further decline to 1.0888 is anticipated. Breaking below this level could extend the downward trajectory towards 1.0830. The bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is positioned above zero but trending downwards, indicating a potential continuation of the decline.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has formed a consolidation pattern around the 1.0913 mark. An upward breakout is expected, potentially driving the pair towards 1.0944, which is seen as a corrective move against the previous downtrend. Upon completion of this correction, the focus will shift to a new declining phase targeting 1.0888. This technical perspective is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised to move from below the 80 level to around 20, suggesting an impending downward momentum.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair shows signs of temporary equilibrium as it navigates through speculative currents and awaits clearer directional cues from upcoming economic data or Federal Reserve communications.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
06 Aug

NZD/USD Sees Recovery After Hitting Nine-Month Low

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has shown signs of recovery, reaching 0.5941 after initially plunging to a nine-month low. This downturn was triggered by concerns over a potential US recession, driven by weak job sector data, which rattled global financial markets.

As risk aversion spiked, the New Zealand dollar and other currencies declined steeply. This market turmoil reflects growing fears that the Federal Reserve may run out of time to adjust monetary policy to avert economic troubles.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet next week. Current market expectations lean towards a rate cut, possibly by 25 basis points, reducing the interest rate to 5.25% per annum on 14 August. This anticipated move is part of a broader global trend towards monetary easing.

Further rate reductions in New Zealand could follow, with projections suggesting a potential decrease to 4.75% per annum by the end of 2024.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair executed a downside wave to 0.5850 and a correction to 0.5977. Today, the market is forming another wave of decline towards 0.5800, after which a correction to 0.5977 is likely (testing from below). On the technical analysis side, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator with its signal line above the zero mark and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, the NZD/USD pair forms downward waves to 0.5892. After working off this level, a correction to 0.5936 (testing from below) is likely, and the next wave of decline to 0.5850 is expected to develop with the prospect of trend continuation to 0.5800. This bearish NZD/USD forecast is corroborated by the Stochastic Oscillator, whose signal line is currently below 50 and showing a solid downward trend.

Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming speeches and reports from central banks, especially the Federal Reserve and RBNZ, as these will significantly influence the currency pair’s movements in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Aug

Rapid Yen Appreciation: Key Factors Boosting JPY

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen continues its recovery rally. The USDJPY pair falls to 143.38 on Monday.

This development is likely only the midpoint of the process as the market regains past losses and brings the JPY to equilibrium. USDJPY is currently at its lowest level since 3 January.

Several reasons are driving this movement. The first is the winding down of carry trade operations on the yen. The process started earlier when it became clear that the Bank of Japan was moving towards tightening monetary conditions.

The second concern is that a US recession is playing an important role. Friday’s employment data was weaker than expected, triggering fears that the Federal Reserve might delay its decision on interest rate cuts. The market is worried the Fed could be late in making a crucial decision.

The third key factor for the JPY is the increased attractiveness of the yen as a safe-haven asset amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The ongoing conflict in the region poses a hypothetical threat to global stability, and investors are factoring in this risk and favouring safe-haven assets.

Technical analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range of around 149.80 before breaking downwards on impactful news. The decline reached 142.00, setting a local low. We anticipate a new consolidation phase above this level. An upward break could see a corrective move towards 149.80. Conversely, a downward exit might extend losses towards 138.10. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, showing continued downward momentum.

After reaching 142.00, a corrective phase to 147.33 may unfold, representing an intermediate target. Following this correction, a further decline to 144.66 could occur. This analysis aligns with the Stochastic oscillator, indicating a potential for an upward correction from oversold levels.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
01 Aug

GBP/USD Under Pressure as Market Anticipates Bank of England Rate Decision

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The British pound sterling continues to decline steadily against the US dollar. The GBP/USD pair is trending towards 1.2848.

On the one hand, the pressure from the USD rate is evident. On the other hand, investors are awaiting the outcome of today’s Bank of England meeting and its decision on interest rates.

There is speculation that the BoE will lower the interest rate from 5.25% to 5.00% today. The inflationary environment, coupled with the state of the employment market in the UK, supports this adjustment. The probability of a rate cut is currently estimated at 65%.

An early move towards monetary policy easing is considered possible for the Bank of England. However, the regulator’s tone in its statements may be relatively cautious, indicating that the BoE is unlikely to lower the rate rapidly. A certain degree of conservatism can be expected from the Bank of England, which will only act if it is fully confident about the economic conditions.

This potential decision is already factored into GBP quotes. The future movements in GBPUSD will be directly influenced by the details provided in the Bank of England’s accompanying statement.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

On the H4 chart of GBP/USD, the market has executed a decline wave to 1.2820 and a subsequent correction to 1.2867. Today, the market continues its downward movement towards 1.2772. After reaching this level, we will assess the probability of a correction to 1.2870 (testing from below). After the correction is complete, we expect the beginning of a new decline wave to the local target of 1.2611. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line below the zero mark and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart of GBP/USD, a correction wave is currently underway towards 1.2867. Today, the formation of the next downward wave to the initial target of 1.2772 is in progress. After reaching this level, we will evaluate the likelihood of a new correction wave towards 1.2870. Following the completion of the correction, we expect a new decline wave to 1.2770. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line positioned below 50 and continuing to decline towards 20.

Investors and traders should closely monitor the BoE’s statement for any indications of future policy direction, as it will be crucial in determining the short to medium-term trajectory of the GBP/USD pair.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
31 Jul

USD/JPY Plummets as Bank of Japan Tightens Policy

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has experienced a sharp decline, currently at 152.79, following decisive monetary policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). In a significant shift, the BoJ raised its interest rate to 0.25% per annum and unveiled plans to scale back monthly bond purchases to approximately 3 trillion yen by Q1 2026. Further interest rate hikes and monetary policy adjustments are on the table if economic activities and inflation pressures align with projections.

This move comes as the BoJ faces increasing pressure from government and financial authorities to mitigate the yen’s weakness and curb rising inflation. The yen’s devaluation has been a pressing concern, intensifying inflationary pressures within the country.

Recent data from Japan provided mixed signals: retail sales reached a four-month high in June, indicating robust consumer activity, whereas industrial production showed a smaller-than-expected decline.

As the market continues to digest the BoJ’s new stance, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further declines, especially if the market fully assimilates these recent adjustments from the Japanese central bank.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair formed a consolidation range around 153.03, extending between 155.20 and 152.10. Following a breakout below this range, there is a visible downward trajectory towards 151.26, potentially extending to 150.77. The MACD indicator, positioned below zero with a downward trajectory, supports this bearish outlook.

After completing a decline to 151.57 and a subsequent correction to 153.88, the market is poised for another downward movement towards 151.35, potentially continuing to 150.77. This bearish forecast is bolstered by the Stochastic oscillator, below the 50 mark and trending downwards, indicating continued selling pressure.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
30 Jul

USDJPY: Braced for BoJ & Fed combo

By ForexTime 

  • USDJPY could see extreme volatility this week
  • Over past year BoJ decision triggered moves of ↑ 1.1%
  • Fed decision sparked moves of ↑ 0.6% & ↓ 1.3% over past year
  • Bloomberg FX model: 77% USDJPY – (151.30 – 157.99)
  • Key technical level – 155.00

A super central bank combo featuring the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed) could rattle the USDJPY!

That’s right, markets are forecasting this to be one of the most volatile weeks for the currency pair this year.

Vol

After trending lower this month and touching levels not seen since early May 2024, a significant move could be on the horizon.

Weekly

On the daily charts, a technical bounce seems to be taking place with prices lingering around resistance at 155.00.

Daily

This rebound may be the product of yen weakness as investors question whether the BoJ will hike rates tomorrow.

weakness

Nevertheless, this is a big week for the USDJPY with fresh trading opportunities on the horizon. 

This is what you need to keep an eye on.

     1) BoJ rate decision

Expectations are mixed over what actions the Bank of Japan will take this month.

Traders are currently pricing in a 50% probability that the BoJ hikes rates by 10bp in July.

Given how inflation and wage growth have picked up, this presents an argument for higher rates. However, the BoJ has a solid record of disappointing market expectations.

  • The USDJPY may trade lower if the BOJ hikes interest rates and signals more hikes down the road.
  • Should the central bank leave rates unchanged and sound more dovish than expected, this could push the USDJPY higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the BoJ decision has only triggered upside moves on the USDJPY with prices rising as much as 1.1% a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    2) Fed rate decision

No changes to US interest rates are expected. However, much focus will be on the press conference which could offer fresh clues on future policy moves.

Traders have priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 75% probability of another cut by November.

  • The USDJPY may fall if the Fed strikes a dovish note and signals that rates will be cut in September.
  • Should the Fed sound more hawkish than expected, the USDJPY could rise.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Fed decision has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.6% or declines of 1.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    3) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts despite the recent rebound. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving away from oversold conditions, prices are still below the 50 & 100-day SMA.  

  • A solid breakout and daily close above 155.00 may open a path toward the 100-day SMA at 155.60, 157.00 and 157.80.
  • Should 155.00 prove reliable resistance, this could send prices towards 153.70, 153.00 and the 200-day SMA at 151.70.

USDJPY2

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 74% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 151.30 – 157.99 range over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
30 Jul

NZD/USD Sinks to Three-Month Minimum, Driven by Rate Speculation and Strengthening USD

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair plummeted to 0.5892, marking a significant three-month low. The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure as the US dollar gains strength due to the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting.

The Fed is expected to leave the interest rate in the target range of 5.25-5.50% this time. At the same time, the market eagerly anticipates clear signals regarding the September meeting, when borrowing costs are expected to be lowered.

A week earlier, the NZD fell by almost 2% against the USD due to overly large-scale risk aversion in the global market, reduced carry trade positions with JPY, and China’s relatively sluggish macroeconomic background.

Expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s future steps also exert fundamental pressure on the NZD. The main forecast assumes that the RBNZ will lower the interest rate soon. At the moment, investors take a rate cut at the August meeting with a 44% probability, which is quite a lot, given all the inputs.

Technical Analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart of NZD/USD, the market executed a wave of decline to the level of 0.5858. Today, the market is correcting this wave of decline. We expect a growth link to the level of 0.5903. If this level is breached upwards, the correction continuing to 0.5987 (test from below) is possible. After the correction is completed, we will consider the beginning of a new wave of decline to the level of 0.5840 with the prospect of trend continuation to the level of 0.5822. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator. Its signal line is under the zero mark and is directed strictly upwards.

On the H1 chart of NZD/USD, the market is forming a growth structure towards the level of 0.5903. After working off this level, we will consider the probability of a decline to the level of 0.5884 (test from above). Then, we will consider the likelihood of another growth structure to the level of 0.5986. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 80 mark. We expect a decline to the level of 50 and further to the level of 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
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