Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 36

EUR/USD Stabilises Ahead of Core PCE Inflation Report

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady at around 1.1134 as markets consolidate USD positions during a lull in significant news. Investors are now keenly awaiting the release of the Core PCE inflation data, a critical metric that the Federal Reserve uses to gauge inflationary pressures and shape its interest rate policy.

The anticipation surrounding this week’s Core PCE release is particularly high due to the lack of impactful data from both the US and the eurozone earlier in the week. While significant shifts in expectations regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory are unlikely, the upcoming report will still be crucial for fine-tuning investor forecasts.

The market has currently primarily priced in a rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting, with the baseline expectation being a 25 basis point reduction. However, a 34.5% probability of a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points remains. This possibility is bolstered by recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicating that the timing for a rate adjustment is appropriate now, echoing sentiments within the monetary policy community.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the pair is forming a structure indicating an initial decline towards 1.1090. Following this decline, a corrective movement to 1.1150 is anticipated. Once this correction concludes, a further decline to 1.1030 is expected, potentially continuing to 1.0960. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned above zero but trending sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has already declined to 1.1104. A corrective phase towards 1.1150 may follow, testing it from below before resuming the downward trajectory towards 1.1090. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 80, suggests an impending drop to 20, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

NZD/USD Reaches Annual High Amid USD Weakness

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The NZD/USD pair has climbed to the highest level since 15 January 2024, continuing its trajectory within an ascending channel towards a target of 0.6233. The New Zealand dollar’s growth is primarily fuelled by the weakening US dollar, mirroring trends observed with other currencies such as the AUD and CAD.

Investor sentiment is buoyed by the anticipation that the US Federal Reserve will begin easing monetary policy at its September meeting. Debates about whether the rate cut will be 25 or 50 basis points are ongoing. The decision is seen as imminent given the current inflationary environment in the US and the need to support the employment market.

Conversely, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has already taken proactive steps by lowering its interest rate earlier this month. The RBNZ has also signalled a potential reduction in lending costs by up to 75 basis points by year-end, marking a fairly aggressive stance on rates. This transparent approach to monetary policy is helping to shape market expectations and bolster the NZD.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, NZD/USD has completed a growth wave to 0.6250 and is now forming the initial decline phase towards 0.6128. After reaching this target, a corrective movement to 0.6191 might occur, testing it from below before initiating a further decline to 0.6065 and possibly extending to 0.6000. The MACD indicator, positioned above zero but trending downwards, supports this bearish outlook.

On the H1 chart, the pair is currently developing a decline structure towards 0.6222. Following this, a brief uptick to 0.6238 is expected, potentially leading to a consolidation around this level. A downward exit from this consolidation could signal the continuation of the downward trend towards 0.6128. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 50 and aiming towards 20, indicating a likely continuation of the downward movement.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Japanese Yen Gains as USD Weakens and BOJ Signals Possible Rate Hike

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen has shown a notable strengthening, with the USD/JPY pair dropping to 143.99 on Monday, marking a three-week low. This movement is primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar and significant remarks from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the US Federal Reserve.

Market dynamics and Central Bank signals

The recent hawkish comments from Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, have garnered significant attention. Last Friday, Ueda hinted that the BOJ might adjust its monetary policy if economic forecasts align with current trends. The market interpreted this statement as a potential precursor to an interest rate hike, especially in light of Japan’s core consumer price index rising for the third consecutive month to 2.7% in July, with overall inflation holding steady at 2.8%.

Conversely, Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, adopted a more dovish stance, indicating that it might be time to revise US monetary policy due to increasing risks to the labour market. This suggests that the Fed could begin easing monetary policy as soon as September, a move that contrasts sharply with the potential tightening in Japan. These shifts in monetary policy outlooks have significantly shaped forex forecasts for the USD/JPY pair.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

The USD/JPY formed a consolidation range around the 146.70 level before moving downward to 143.50. There may be a temporary rise to 144.55, but a further decline to 142.88 could follow. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and trending downward.

The pair has completed a downward structure to 143.44. A corrective move towards 144.55 is possible, potentially extending to 145.70 as a test from below. Following this, a decline to 142.88 might occur. The Stochastic oscillator, currently above 50, suggests a rise to 80 before the next downward phase.

Summary

The USD/JPY pair is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of USD weakness and potential monetary policy adjustments from the BOJ. As market dynamics evolve with central bank policies and economic indicators, the yen could see further gains if the BOJ shifts towards a tighter monetary stance in response to rising inflation.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators sharply raise Euro, British Pound & Canadian Dollar bets

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Euro & British Pound

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (29,034 contracts) with the British Pound (19,699 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (15,201 contracts), the Australian Dollar (3,731 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,887 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,855 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (481 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-15,448 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-4,050 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-945 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-638 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators sharply raise Euro, British Pound & Canadian Dollar bets

This week’s COT currency’s data saw improvement in many of the non-dollar currencies this week. The US Dollar Index fell by over 1 percent this week as the American currency faces pressure from moderating inflation and expected interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve starting in September.

Here is this week’s COT currency roundup:

The Euro speculator positioning jumped by +29,034 contracts this week and rose for the fifth time out of the past seven weeks. This week’s gain was the highest weekly rise in over a year and brought the overall bullish position to an 11-week high. Euro positions have now been in bullish territory for seven straight weeks after a brief fall onto the bearish side for two weeks in late-June and early-July. The Euro exchange rate versus the dollar closed this week above it’s 200-week moving average and right below the 1.1200 exchange rate — the highest weekly close since July of 2023.

The British pound sterling speculator contracts rose strongly this week (+19,699 contracts) following sharp declines over the past three weeks that had taken a total of -94,371 contracts off of the speculator’s bullish standing. The GBP speculator position had surged to an all-time record high on July 23rd at a total of +142,183 contracts before embarking on a three-week slide. The previous record high speculator position had been prior (July 17th 2007 at +98,366 contracts) to the start of the Great Financial Crisis. This week’s rebound brings the speculator standing back up to a total of +67,511 contracts. The GBPUSD exchange rate this week has touched its highest level since March of 2022 against the US dollar and closed over 1.3200 to end the week.

The Canadian dollar has been on the other side of the spectrum than that of the British pound as it recently fell to an all-time record bearish speculator level. The CAD spec bets had dropped to -196,263 contracts on July 30th but have now rebounded for three straight weeks including this week’s gain by over +15,000 contracts. The CAD position settled this week at a standing of -164,410 contracts (the 4th most bearish level on record) and, overall, has now been in a bearish position for fifty-five straight weeks, dating back to August 1st of 2023. The Canadian dollar exchange rate had a strong week versus the US dollar and rose over 1 percent as the CAD futures price closed over the 0.7400 threshold and up against the top of its weekly down-trending channel that started in May/June of 2021.

Finally, the Japanese yen speculator bets continued to gain for a seventh straight week this week after dropping to the second lowest level on record at -184,223 contracts on July 2nd. The seven-week improvement has totaled +207,808 contracts and has taken the speculator position from -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to this week’s total of +23,585 contracts. Traders have been quick to reverse their positions on central bank policy changes (and currency intervention) with the US Federal Reserve ready to reduce interest rates while the Bank of Japan is possibly looking to raise their rates. The yen exchange rate versus the dollar rose strongly this week with a 5-day gain over 2 percent. The Japanese yen strength brought the USDJPY currency pair to the 144.39 exchange rate, the best weekly close for the yen since January.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) leads the currency markets this week. The the British Pound (66 percent), Bitcoin (63 percent) and the Australian Dollar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (4 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (41.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (43.6 percent)
EuroFX (44.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (31.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (66.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (57.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (14.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (7.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (57.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (54.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (14.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (10.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (48.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (56.0 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.0 percent)
Bitcoin (62.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (72.4 percent)


Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (99 percent) and the Swiss Franc (38 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (22 percent) and the US Dollar Index (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-76 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-35 percent), Canadian Dollar (-24 percent) and the Mexican Peso (-14 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (4.2 percent)
EuroFX (22.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (15.5 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-7.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-6.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (98.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (99.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (37.9 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (40.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-23.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-26.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (-34.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-22.6 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-76.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-89.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-14.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-6.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (-7.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-12.1 percent)
Bitcoin (-1.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (19.7 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 17,591 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -945 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,536 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.819.34.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.752.97.3
– Net Position:17,591-16,372-1,219
– Gross Longs:35,4529,4122,361
– Gross Shorts:17,86125,7843,580
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.566.12.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.92.2-26.9

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,017 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 29,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.155.911.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.068.87.1
– Net Position:56,017-89,22433,207
– Gross Longs:194,350386,94882,517
– Gross Shorts:138,333476,17249,310
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.255.845.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.3-23.221.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 67,511 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 19,699 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,812 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.323.916.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.158.410.9
– Net Position:67,511-79,95512,444
– Gross Longs:125,63455,24837,610
– Gross Shorts:58,123135,20325,166
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.4 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.429.688.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.75.85.4

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 23,585 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 481 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,104 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.159.211.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.668.19.9
– Net Position:23,585-28,4014,816
– Gross Longs:88,761187,05535,989
– Gross Shorts:65,176215,45631,173
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.097.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:98.9-97.939.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -25,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.369.918.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.625.124.9
– Net Position:-25,71430,096-4,382
– Gross Longs:7,60046,90712,329
– Gross Shorts:33,31416,81116,711
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.848.657.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:37.9-47.640.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -164,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 15,201 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -179,611 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.282.29.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.629.110.4
– Net Position:-164,410167,006-2,596
– Gross Longs:19,528258,24630,062
– Gross Shorts:183,93891,24032,658
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 12.8 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.384.923.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.822.1-1.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,616 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.747.713.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.427.313.2
– Net Position:-38,88538,366519
– Gross Longs:70,55489,42925,338
– Gross Shorts:109,43951,06324,819
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.945.657.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-34.834.7-24.0

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -13,769 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,855 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,624 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.364.26.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.943.27.0
– Net Position:-13,76914,000-231
– Gross Longs:18,88742,9074,465
– Gross Shorts:32,65628,9074,696
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.5 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.481.255.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-76.374.7-16.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 34,646 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.257.32.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.476.53.0
– Net Position:34,646-33,410-1,236
– Gross Longs:66,745100,0923,948
– Gross Shorts:32,099133,5025,184
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.553.03.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.115.4-23.3

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -50,955 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,842 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.178.62.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.214.23.2
– Net Position:-50,95551,235-280
– Gross Longs:14,35562,4902,300
– Gross Shorts:65,31011,2552,580
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 15.6 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):3.797.231.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-7.87.33.9

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -243 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -638 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 395 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:81.13.14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:81.93.13.3
– Net Position:-24317226
– Gross Longs:24,0169271,215
– Gross Shorts:24,259910989
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.765.118.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.92.70.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

AUD/USD Sees Rebound: Weak US Dollar and RBA’s Steady Stance Support Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

AUD/USD is finding its footing, currently stabilising at around 0.6725, as the US dollar weakens further in anticipation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The Australian dollar’s resilience is bolstered by the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting, indicating that the central bank is not in a hurry to ease monetary policy despite a slowdown in inflation. The RBA remains cautious, projecting inflation to stay above its 2-3% target range until the end of 2025. This suggests that interest rates may remain steady for an extended period, providing a stable backdrop for the Australian dollar.

Recent data highlights robust performance in Australia’s private sector for August, particularly in services, while the contraction in manufacturing is easing. This paints a picture of an Australian economy that is adjusting well and could sustain its momentum without immediate monetary stimulus. Investors are watching closely for cues on future policy shifts, influencing forex forecasts.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair recently peaked at 0.6760 but is now poised for a correction. The immediate focus is on a potential descent to 0.6684, marking the first significant support level. Upon reaching this target, a retest of 0.6725 from below may occur, defining the boundaries of a possible consolidation range. A break below this consolidation could initiate a further decline towards 0.6600, potentially extending to 0.6555. The MACD indicator supports a bearish outlook in the short term, with the signal line peaking and poised for a downward trajectory.

In the hourly frame, AUD/USD has retraced from a recent low of 0.6696 to 0.6725, indicating a corrective phase. The anticipated continuation of this downtrend could see the pair targeting 0.6686 shortly. If this support holds, a rebound to 0.6725 could follow. The Stochastic oscillator indicates an overbought condition, with the signal line expected to move downwards from 80 to 20, supporting the potential for further declines.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

USDJPY: Waits on BoJ and Fed chief remarks

By ForexTime

  • USDJPY ↓ 3% month-to-date
  • Ueda testimony + Powell speech in focus
  • Prices heavily bearish but RSI near oversold
  • Bloomberg FX model: 73% – (142.70 – 148.67)
  • Key technical level: 145.00

Check this out. The USDJPY could see big price swings on Friday!

That’s right, remarks by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and Fed Chair Jerome Powell are likely to inject the currency pair for fresh volatility.

With prices already hovering around a daily support level, the incoming risk events may trigger a possible breakout or technical bounce.

USDJPY1

The lowdown…

The USDJPY has witnessed heavy selloffs over the past few weeks thanks to a hawkish BoJ and dovish Federal Reserve. Bears are certainly in power due to the divergence in the policy outlook between both central banks.

Since hitting a multi-decade top at 161.950, the currency pair has tumbled roughly 10%.

USDJPY w1

With all the above said, here are 3 things you need to keep an eye on:

 

    1) BoJ Governor Ueda testimony

Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be grilled by lawmakers on Friday after the BoJ’s hawkish signals contributed to the global market selloff earlier this month.

Note: The BoJ raised interest rates at its July 2024 meeting to 0.25%.

This triggered the unwinding of the “carry trade” which allows investors to borrow the Yen cheaply and use that money to buy higher-yield assets – for example US shares.

Rising rates in Japan increased borrowing costs, ultimately triggering a selloff across global markets as investors dumped shares to raise cash to service interest rate repayments.

Given the market sensitivity to interest rate expectations, Ueda must strike a neutral tone to prevent any shocks.

  • If he sounds too hawkish, this may strengthen the Yen and boost bets around the BoJ hiking rates. Should this result in the further unwinding of the carry trade, global markets could take a hit.
  • However, if he comes across as too dovish – the yen may weaken – pushing the USDJPY higher.

Note: It will be wise to keep an eye on the incoming Japan CPI figures also published on Friday, something that may impact bets around what actions the BoJ take over the next few months.

 

    2) Jackson Hole: Powell speech

As covered in our week ahead report, Powell’s big speech on Friday could rock global markets. He is expected to signal that a September cut is on the table with traders already pricing in a 25-basis point reduction next month.

Any fresh clues around what the Fed plans to do for the rest of 2024 may impact Fed cut expectations. Ultimately, the USDJPY’s outlook may be influenced by what’s said or not during Powell’s highly anticipated speech on Friday.

  • Should Powell strike a firmly dovish note, this may send the USDJPY lower.
  • If the central bank head is not as dovish as markets expect, the USDJPY may rebound.

 

    3) Technical forces

Prices remain under pressure on the daily charts as there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs. Although the candlesticks are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA, the Relative Strength Index is flirting near oversold territory.

  • A solid breakdown and daily close below 145.00 may encourage a decline toward 143.70 and 141.50.
  • Should 145.00 prove to be reliable support, this could trigger a rebound toward 147.70 and 149.30.

USDJPY2

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 73% chance that USDJPY will trade within the 142.70 – 148.67 range over the next one-week period.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

EUR/USD Holds Near Seven-Month High Amid Speculation on Fed Rate Cuts

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Euro vs dollar maintains its position close to a seven-month peak, trading at 1.1077 on Tuesday. The US dollar’s weakening continues, largely driven by market expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next month. Attention is also geared towards Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Jackson-Hole symposium on Friday.

Market participants anticipate Powell will signal the necessity for a rate reduction. The nuances of his speech will be critically evaluated to discern whether the Fed is leaning towards a moderate 25 basis point cut or a more substantial reduction in September.

While there’s a possibility Powell might opt for cautious language to provide the Fed with flexibility to adjust the pace of rate cuts based on future economic data, current conditions seem conducive for at least a 25bp reduction in borrowing costs next month. The Fed could then decide to accelerate cuts depending on subsequent economic indicators.

Until further data becomes available, the US dollar might remain under pressure. So far, EUR/USD has appreciated by 2.4% since the start of August, marking the most robust monthly gain since November of the previous year.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD has established a consolidation pattern around 1.1020, breaking upwards to reach 1.1080. This growth trajectory appears to have peaked, and the market is now likely to form a consolidation range at these high levels. A downward breakout is anticipated, potentially driving the pair towards 1.0980. A breach of this level could extend losses to 1.0880. The MACD indicator supports this view, with its signal line positioned above zero but poised to decline, suggesting a potential reversal of the current EUR/USD price forecast.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is currently forming a consolidation range near 1.1080, with a possible expansion to 1.1090. A downward departure from this range could target 1.1020. Following this, a corrective move to 1.1050 may occur before the pair resumes its descent to 1.0990 and potentially extends to 1.0950. This bearish outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, which is near the 80 level and anticipated to drop towards 20, indicating a potential decline.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

AUD/USD climbs as RBA maintains firm stance on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The Australian dollar (AUD) is witnessing a rise against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, reaching 0.6629. This upward movement is bolstered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current policy stance. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized today that discussions on interest rate cuts are premature despite some easing in inflationary pressures.

Inflation, according to Governor Bullock, remains uncomfortably high, with expectations for it to settle within the target range of 2-3% only towards the end of next year. This viewpoint underpinned the RBA’s decision last week to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive hold. The RBA cites ongoing economic stability and persistent inflation risks as key reasons for their cautious approach.

This stance starkly contrasts with other major central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have been more open to adjusting rates. However, the RBA’s consistent and factual communication strategy has minimized speculative market reactions, contributing to a more stable forex forecast for the AUD.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has reached a peak at 0.6640 and is now showing signs of consolidating below this level. Should the pair break downwards from this consolidation, a decline to 0.6450 could be anticipated. Following this potential drop, a rebound to 0.6545 for a retest from below might occur before a further descent towards 0.6200. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line retreating from highs and gearing towards a downturn.

On the hourly chart, after a decline to 0.6555, the AUD/USD pair corrected upwards to 0.6628. A consolidation below this level is expected, which could lead to a new downward wave aiming for 0.6540. This bearish prediction aligns with the Stochastic oscillator readings, where the signal line is poised to move from above 80 downwards to 20, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 13th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Swiss Franc & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were slightly overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (34,458 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (2,400 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (2,021 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (1,127 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,041 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (409 contracts) also seeing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-26,587 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-15,242 contracts), the EuroFX (-6,597 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,417 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-143 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Speculators flip Japanese Yen bets into 1st bullish position since March 2021

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is sharp increase in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculators followed up last week’s surge in buying of yen contracts with another strong weekly gain by +34,458 net contracts this week. Last week’s jump by +62,105 contracts was the third largest weekly gain on record (following +69,020 contracts on March 1st 2011 and the highest weekly change of +77,690 contracts on October 31st 2006).

Overall, speculators have now boosted yen positions for six consecutive weeks for a 6-week total increase of +207,327 contracts that has brought the positioning from -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to this week’s +23,104 contract level.

This is the first weekly bullish position following 178 consecutive weeks of bearish levels that dated back to March 9th of 2021. The 178-week streak of consecutive bearish positions marks the highest all-time streak – illustrating the depth of bearish sentiment the yen has experienced over the past few years.

The yen exchange rate versus the US dollar has now improved by almost 9 percent from the low-point reached in July, according to this week’s closing prices. The July low (USDJPY level of 161.95) was also the weakest level for the yen against the dollar since 1986. The USDJPY closed out the week at 147.54.


Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Bitcoin

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and Bitcoin (72 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (58 percent), Mexican Peso (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (55 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (1 percent), the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the EuroFX (32 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (43.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (38.4 percent)
EuroFX (31.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (34.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (57.6 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (69.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (83.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (52.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (6.6 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (10.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (56.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (0.0 percent)
Bitcoin (72.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (74.5 percent)


Japanese Yen & Swiss Franc top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Swiss Franc (40 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. Bitcoin (20 percent), the EuroFX (16 percent) and the US Dollar Index (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-89 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Canadian Dollar (-27 percent), the Australian Dollar (-23 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (4.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-3.0 percent)
EuroFX (15.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-6.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (13.6 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (40.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (24.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-26.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-26.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-22.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-13.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-89.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-83.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (-6.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (3.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-12.1 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-30.9 percent)
Bitcoin (19.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (17.5 percent)


Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 18,536 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:74.518.04.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.555.88.0
– Net Position:18,536-17,120-1,416
– Gross Longs:33,6868,1382,194
– Gross Shorts:15,15025,2583,610
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.3 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.664.50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.23.0-37.5

 


Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 26,983 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,597 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 33,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.357.311.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.365.47.6
– Net Position:26,983-54,02727,044
– Gross Longs:182,212382,39477,589
– Gross Shorts:155,229436,42150,545
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):31.869.031.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.5-15.510.9

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 47,812 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -26,587 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,399 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.927.817.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.756.212.6
– Net Position:47,812-58,34010,528
– Gross Longs:102,60357,13436,458
– Gross Shorts:54,791115,47425,930
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.5 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):57.638.284.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.42.715.8

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 23,104 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 34,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,354 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.660.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.367.710.4
– Net Position:23,104-23,527423
– Gross Longs:87,101190,06433,201
– Gross Shorts:63,997213,59132,778
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.083.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:100.0-100.033.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -21,664 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,073 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.967.018.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.926.925.6
– Net Position:-21,66426,308-4,644
– Gross Longs:9,15544,02612,177
– Gross Shorts:30,81917,71816,821
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.242.456.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:40.4-49.137.9

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -179,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,021 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,632 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.482.19.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:62.026.110.1
– Net Position:-179,611180,958-1,347
– Gross Longs:20,668265,25431,163
– Gross Shorts:200,27984,29632,510
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):7.590.626.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.623.28.3

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -42,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,417 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,199 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.550.013.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:57.224.216.2
– Net Position:-42,61648,481-5,865
– Gross Longs:65,02894,08424,636
– Gross Shorts:107,64445,60330,501
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.752.540.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.625.6-27.2

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -15,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,127 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.667.56.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:49.142.38.1
– Net Position:-15,62416,811-1,187
– Gross Longs:17,05044,9734,240
– Gross Shorts:32,67428,1625,427
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):10.986.342.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-89.186.3-11.6

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 50,094 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -15,242 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,336 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:44.451.72.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.478.02.8
– Net Position:50,094-48,708-1,386
– Gross Longs:82,18895,6203,845
– Gross Shorts:32,094144,3285,231
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.045.72.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.67.9-19.8

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,842 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -54,883 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.475.02.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:87.010.03.0
– Net Position:-53,84254,218-376
– Gross Longs:18,70062,5922,117
– Gross Shorts:72,5428,3742,493
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 17.5 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.0100.030.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.111.90.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -143 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 538 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:86.52.34.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:85.14.73.1
– Net Position:395-676281
– Gross Longs:24,1216441,148
– Gross Shorts:23,7261,320867
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.447.519.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.7-30.2-2.7

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

AUD/USD climbs as RBA maintains firm stance on interest rates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar (AUD) is witnessing a rise against the US dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day, reaching 0.6629. This upward movement is bolstered by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) current policy stance. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized today that discussions on interest rate cuts are premature despite some easing in inflationary pressures.

Inflation, according to Governor Bullock, remains uncomfortably high, with expectations for it to settle within the target range of 2-3% only towards the end of next year. This viewpoint underpinned the RBA’s decision last week to maintain the official cash rate at 4.35%, marking the sixth consecutive hold. The RBA cites ongoing economic stability and persistent inflation risks as key reasons for their cautious approach.

This stance starkly contrasts with other major central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which have been more open to adjusting rates. However, the RBA’s consistent and factual communication strategy has minimized speculative market reactions, contributing to a more stable forex forecast for the AUD.

Technical analysis of AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair has reached a peak at 0.6640 and is now showing signs of consolidating below this level. Should the pair break downwards from this consolidation, a decline to 0.6450 could be anticipated. Following this potential drop, a rebound to 0.6545 for a retest from below might occur before a further descent towards 0.6200. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, which shows the signal line retreating from highs and gearing towards a downturn.

On the hourly chart, after a decline to 0.6555, the AUD/USD pair corrected upwards to 0.6628. A consolidation below this level is expected, which could lead to a new downward wave aiming for 0.6540. This bearish prediction aligns with the Stochastic oscillator readings, where the signal line is poised to move from above 80 downwards to 20, indicating potential selling pressure ahead.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.