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EUR/USD Faces Further Decline Amid Market Jitters and Trump’s Tariff Threat

The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0778 on Thursday, staging a modest correction but remaining under pressure amid deteriorating market sentiment.

Key drivers weighing on EUR/USD

The latest sell-off is driven by heightened trade war fears. On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars and light trucks, set to take effect on 2 April. The move, seen as retaliation against foreign tariffs on US goods, escalates trade tensions. Markets view this as a major risk, with potential consequences including slower US economic growth and higher inflation.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, fresh economic data revealed:

US consumer confidence plunged to a four-year low
Core capital goods orders (excluding defence and aircraft) declined, breaking a three-month growth streak – a worrying sign for business investment

Investors now await Friday’s Core PCE Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – and the revised US Q4 2024 GDP estimate, which could set near-term market direction.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market completed a downward move to 1.0733. A correction towards 1.0855 is likely today. Once this correction ends, a new decline towards 1.0707 may begin. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and pointing downward to new lows.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the level of 1.0826 before breaking lower to 1.0733. This move has nearly met its local downside target. Today, a corrective pullback towards 1.0826 (testing from below) is possible. Once this correction ends, a renewed decline towards 1.0700 could unfold. This move is viewed as the first wave of a broader downtrend. If this level is reached, another bounce towards 1.0826 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is above 80 and preparing to drop towards 20.

Conclusion

With trade war risks weighing on sentiment and technical indicators pointing to continued downside, EUR/USD could test 1.0700 in the coming sessions. Traders should monitor US inflation data and GDP revisions for confirmation of the next major move.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

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26 Mar

USD/JPY Rises Again: Yen Lacks Support as Bulls Take Control

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 150.37 on Wednesday, indicating a fading correction from the previous session as trading volumes declined.

Key drivers behind the USD/JPY surge

Investors are shunning risk ahead of potential US retaliatory tariffs, which could weigh on Japanese exports – a key pillar of the economy. Meanwhile, demand for risk assets, including equities and commodities, has further eroded support for the safe-haven yen.

The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January meeting minutes, released earlier, revealed policymakers’ willingness to consider further rate hikes, contingent on wage growth and inflation trends. One member even suggested rates could reach 1% in the second half of fiscal 2025.

However, the BoJ’s decision in March to hold rates at 0.5% reinforced its cautious stance, with officials wary of global economic risks, particularly potential US trade measures. Given the central bank’s reluctance to tighten policy soon, the yen lacks a key bullish catalyst.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has formed a growth wave structure up to 150.93. After reaching this target, a pullback to 148.73 is possible, effectively marking the consolidation range at the wave’s peak. A breakout to the upside would indicate a continuation of the trend towards 153.60. This is a local target, after which a correction to 151.20 cannot be ruled out. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram zone. A decline towards the zero line is expected.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a correction up to 149.30. Once this pullback is complete, a new growth wave towards 150.97 may begin. This is also a local target. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, as its signal line is above 80 and preparing to decline towards 20.

Conclusion

With the BoJ maintaining a dovish stance and risk sentiment weighing on the yen, USD/JPY bulls remain in control. Traders should watch for a breakout above 150.93 to confirm further upside, while corrections could offer short-term pullback opportunities.

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21 Mar

Week Ahead: GBPUSD set for end March mayhem?

By ForexTime

GBPUSD ↑ almost 3% MTD
Wednesday = UK Spring Statement + UK CPI
Over past year UK CPI triggered moves of ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.3%
Across the Atlantic = Fed speeches + US PCE report
Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 75% of trading within 1.2799 – 1.3081 over 1-week period

The week ahead is stacked with high-impact data, political events and speeches by numerous policymakers:

Sunday, 23rd March

China Development Forum 2025 in Beijing

Monday, 24th March

CHINAH: BYD earnings
TWN: Taiwan jobless rate
GER40: Germany HCOB Manufacturing & Services PMI
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, BoE Governor Bailey speech
US500: US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

Tuesday, 25th March

Boao Forum for Asia – dubbed “China’s Davos”
GER40: Germany IFO business climate
MXN: Mexico retail sales, international reserves
TWN: Taiwan industrial production
RUS2000: US new home sales, Conference Board consumer confidence, New York Fed Williams speech

Wednesday, 26th March

AUD: Australia CPI
CAD: BoC meeting minutes
SG20: Singapore industrial production
GBP: UK CPI, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers “spring statement”
US500: CBO releases estimate of when US debt will be reached, St. Louis Fed Musalem speech
World Economic Forum symposium in Hong Kong

Thursday, 27th March

MXN: Mexico trade, rate decision
USDInd: US revised 4Q GDP, initial jobless claims, Richmond Fed Barkin speech

Friday, 28th March

EUR: Eurozone consumer confidence
GER40: Germany unemployment
JPY: Japan Tokyo CPI
GBP: UK Q4 GDP (final), retail sales
USDInd: US February PCE report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Atlanta Fed Bostic speech

GBPUSD could be set for a week of mayhem due to economic and political forces!

The major currency pair has struggled to push beyond 1.30 despite the BoE’s slightly hawkish vote split on rates.

Nevertheless, prices have jumped as much as 7.5% from the mid-January low with month-to-date gains up almost 3%.

Here are 4 things to keep an eye on:

1 – UK Spring Statement

On Wednesday 26^th March, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will present the Spring Statement to Parliament.

Investors will pay close details on key updates concerning the country’s finances, and government plans for tax and public spending. The UK’s growth forecast is set for a major downgrade with Reeves expected to announce huge spending cuts over tax rises. This event will certainly shape sentiment toward the UK economy and British Pound.

Sterling is likely to sink if the Spring budget dents optimism over the UK economy and fuels bets around lower UK interest rates.
Should the Spring budget soothe investor fears over the UK’s outlook, the pound may rise.

2 – BoE Bailey Speech + UK February CPI

Just days after the BoE voted to leave rates unchanged, BoE governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on the UK economy on Monday 24^th March. Any fresh insight offered on future policy moves may move the Pound.

But the real market mover for Sterling could be the latest UK inflation figures published on Wednesday 26^th March. Signs of cooling price pressures may impact BoE cut bets.

Annual inflation is expected to cool 2.9% from 3.0%, while the monthly print is seen rising 0.5% from -0.1%.

Over the past 12 months, the UK CPI has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: Beyond the CPI report, the PMI report on Monday and retail sales figures on Friday may provide more insight into the health of the UK economy. Should they disappoint, this could weaken the Pound. The same is true vice-versa.

3- US February PCE report + Fed speeches

Across the Atlantic, a string of speeches by Federal Reserve officials could provide some fresh insight into the Fed’s thinking on rates.

But the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure on Friday 28th March may sway rate cut bets.

In the March policy meeting, Powell sought to calm fears over Trump’s tariffs suggesting any rise in prices would be “transitory”. So, this may place extra focus on US inflation reports moving forward, leading to increased market sensitivity.

The PCE core deflator is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM but rise 2.7% from 2.6% annually. Ultimately signs of sticky price pressures may push back Fed cut bets.

Over the past 12 months, the US PCE report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.6% or declines of 0.8% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Note: It’s not only the PCE data that move the USD, PMIs, consumer confidence data and initial jobless figures may result in price swings.

4- Technical forces

The GBPUSD is back within a range on the daily charts with support at 1.2900 and resistance at 1.3000. Despite respecting a bullish channel, the RSI has been overbought since early March.

A breakout above 1.3000 may open a path toward 1.3100.
A breakdown below 1.2900 could trigger a decline toward 1.2870 and the 200-day SMA at 1.2800.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2799 – 1.3081 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

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21 Mar

EURUSD Loses Momentum as Fed Bolsters the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trending downward, approaching 1.0829 on Friday as investors evaluate the latest developments in US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Key drivers behind EUR/USD movement

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve held its current interest rate and overall monetary policy framework unchanged. However, the central bank signalled that two rate cuts could be expected later this year. In its commentary, the Fed highlighted growing risks to economic recovery, employment stability, and inflation trends.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, describing them as temporary. Powell also emphasised that the Fed would not rush into further rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious approach to monetary easing.

Adding to market uncertainty, Trump’s retaliatory tariffs – targeting countries that have imposed duties on US goods – are set to take effect on 2 April. Over the past 24 hours, the US dollar has strengthened amid fears of slowing global economic growth and escalating trade tensions. These factors have reinforced risk-averse sentiment among investors.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD declined to 1.0815, followed by a correction to 1.0860. A further decline towards 1.0765 is highly likely, with this level remaining the primary target. The MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line is below zero, sloping sharply downward, indicating potential new lows.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD broke through the 1.0864 level and formed a bearish wave structure, reaching 1.0815. Today, a corrective move towards 1.0860 (testing from below) is likely. Once this correction concludes, the pair could resume its downward trajectory, targeting 1.0811. This movement marks the third wave of the downtrend. After reaching this level, another retracement towards 1.0864 is possible. The Stochastic oscillator supports this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and trending upward towards the 50 level.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the Fed’s cautious stance and global trade tensions bolster the US dollar. Technical indicators suggest further downside potential, with key support levels at 1.0765 and 1.0811. Investors should monitor upcoming economic data and trade developments for additional insights into the pair’s direction.

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20 Mar

Pound Hits 4.5-Month High: New Peaks on the Horizon

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3008 on Thursday, marking its highest level in 4.5 months. This upward momentum has fuelled speculation about additional gains for the British pound.

Global Factors to Drive GBP/USD Movement

The market has largely priced in the US dollar’s decline, which has provided a tailwind for the pound. The UK is in a favourable position amid ongoing global trade tensions. With limited trade ties to the US, the country is less exposed to major tariffs. Its neutral stance on global conflicts further supports the pound’s stability.

Today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting is unlikely to significantly affect the pound, as markets have already priced in the expectation that interest rates will remain at 4.50%. Investors will instead focus on the BoE’s commentary, which is expected to maintain a cautious tone. Key points of interest include updates on inflation and GDP estimates.

The BoE’s forecasts are expected to remain unchanged, underscoring its data-dependent approach. The central bank’s wording is expected to signal a gradual approach to future rate cuts, reinforcing a measured and cautious monetary stance.

Looking ahead, global developments will have a greater impact on the pound’s trajectory than domestic factors, with its outlook remaining positive given the current geopolitical and economic climate.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD completed a growth wave, reaching 1.3013. Currently, the pair is consolidating below this level. A downward extension of the consolidation range to 1.2925 is anticipated, followed by a potential upward wave targeting 1.3048. Beyond this, a downward correction to 1.2800 could materialise. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is trending downward toward the zero level.

On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is forming a downward wave structure toward 1.2925. Once this wave completes, a move higher to 1.3048 is possible. Further ahead, a decline to 1.2717 remains a possibility. This outlook is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and trending downward toward 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s recent rally to a 4.5-month high reflects a combination of US dollar weakness and the UK’s advantageous position in global trade dynamics. While the BoE meeting is unlikely to deliver surprises, the central bank’s cautious tone and data-dependent approach will be closely watched. Technically, GBP/USD is poised for further gains, though a corrective pullback is possible. Investors should watch global developments, which will likely dictate the pound’s next moves.

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19 Mar

Japanese Yen Continues to Slide as Bank of Japan Disappoints Markets

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair surged to 149.58 on Wednesday, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains as the Japanese yen extended its decline. The Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest policy decision failed to inspire confidence, leaving investors underwhelmed and further weakening the yen.

Key factors driving USD/JPY movement

As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% while reiterating its forecast that the Japanese economy will grow above its potential level. However, the central bank also acknowledged emerging signs of economic fragility, adopting a cautious tone in its outlook. Policymakers emphasised the need to gather and analyse more data before making significant moves, particularly in light of global economic risks.

A key concern is the potential impact of US tariff hikes, which could weigh heavily on Japan’s export-driven economy. Investors are now closely monitoring comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda for further insights into the central bank’s strategy and future policy direction.

Recent data has painted a mixed picture of Japan’s economic health. The monthly Reuters Tankan survey revealed growing pessimism among Japanese manufacturers in March, citing concerns over US trade policies and China’s slowing economy. On a brighter note, Japan’s trade balance shifted to a surplus in February, driven by robust export growth. However, this improvement has done little to strengthen the yen amid broader market concerns.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is forming a bullish wave structure, targeting 150.20. Upon reaching this level, a corrective pullback to 149.20 is possible, likely establishing a consolidation range near the current highs. A breakout above this range could signal further upward momentum, with the next target at 151.80. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line remaining above zero and trending upwards.

The H1 chart shows USD/JPY developing a growth wave toward 150.20, representing the midpoint of the third wave in the current structure. A consolidation range is expected to form around 149.62, with an upward breakout potentially opening the path to 151.80. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line above 50 pointing upward.

Conclusion

The Japanese yen’s decline reflects market disappointment with the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance and lack of decisive action. While Japan’s trade balance has shown improvement, concerns over global economic risks and domestic manufacturing sentiment continue to weigh on the currency. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY remains in a bullish trend, with key resistance levels at 150.20 and 151.80. Traders should monitor BoJ Governor Ueda’s statements and upcoming economic data for further clues on the yen’s trajectory.

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13 Mar

EUR/USD holds onto hopes of further growth as investors assess the risks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0887 on Thursday as investors cautiously evaluate the impact of escalating global trade tensions on the economy and consumer behaviour. Despite the uncertainty, the currency pair shows resilience, with market participants closely monitoring key developments.

Key market factors affecting EUR/USD

The primary focus remains on the ongoing global trade war, which has intensified following recent announcements by US President Donald Trump. Trump has pledged to impose additional tariffs on trading partners in response to the EU and Canada’s retaliatory measures triggered by earlier US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

Further adding to the uncertainty, Trump reaffirmed his commitment to imposing additional retaliatory duties scheduled for April. This has intensified concerns about potential spillover effects on global markets and economic stability.

On the economic data front, US consumer inflation figures for February relieved the currency market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.3% increase. Year-over-year, inflation eased to 2.8%, down from 3.0% in January. However, the full impact of recent tariffs is yet to materialise, leaving markets cautious about potential inflationary pressures in the coming months.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting next week. Market consensus suggests that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, but all eyes will be on the updated economic forecasts and any signals regarding future monetary policy. The decision could play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair recently completed a growth wave, reaching a high of 1.0944. Currently, the market is consolidating near the top of this wave. A downward breakout from this range is anticipated, potentially initiating the first wave of decline toward the 1.0533 level. Following this, a corrective rebound to 1.0740 could occur. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains above zero but is trending downward, signalling weakening momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a consolidation range around 1.0830, extending up to 1.0944. A decline towards the lower boundary of this range is expected, potentially leading to a breakout and a drop to 1.0750. A subsequent retest of 1.0830 (from below) may follow before a further decline to 1.0533. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this bearish outlook, with its signal line below the 50 mark and trending downward toward 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair remains precarious as investors navigate the dual challenges of escalating trade tensions and impending central bank decisions. While technical indicators point to a bearish near-term outlook, market sentiment remains highly sensitive to trade negotiations and macroeconomic data developments. Traders should remain alert to potential volatility and be prepared to adapt their strategies as new information emerges.

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12 Mar

Japanese yen declines: temporary pause amid strong long-term outlook

By RoboForex Analytical Department

USD/JPY climbed to 148.19 on Wednesday, marking its second consecutive session of gains after touching a low of 146.53, its weakest level since 4 October 2024. While this movement partly resembles a technical rebound, broader market conditions appear to shift, influencing the yen’s trajectory.

Key market factors affecting USD/JPY

Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that it is natural for bond yields to reflect market expectations regarding short-term interest rates. He downplayed the significance of any divergence between the BoJ’s stance and market sentiment.

Despite this, financial markets continue to bet on the BoJ sticking to its interest rate hike strategy for 2025. Japan’s latest inflation data further strengthens this view.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2025 surged to 4.0%, the highest since January 2023. The primary driver was food prices, which spiked 7.8% y/y, while rising electricity and gas prices also contributed to overall inflation. Meanwhile, core inflation hit a 19-month high at 3.2%.

Given this inflationary environment, the BoJ remains pressured to maintain its tightening cycle, a strong supporting factor for the yen over the longer term.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is developing a growth wave targeting 148.38. After reaching this level, a correction towards 147.34 may follow, outlining the consolidation range at the recent lows. If the price breaks upwards, the pair could extend gains towards 150.20, the next key resistance level. A correction to 148.38 could then occur. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line below zero but pointing strictly upwards, indicating bullish momentum.

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a growth wave towards 148.38, marking the first key target. A potential pullback to 147.34 may follow before a renewed push higher towards 149.40, the next local target. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upwards, suggesting continued buying pressure.

Conclusion

USD/JPY is experiencing a short-term rebound, with market sentiment driving the pair higher amid shifting rate expectations. However, the BoJ’s stance and Japan’s strong inflation figures provide longer-term support for the yen, keeping the broader outlook mixed.

In the near term, 148.38 remains a key resistance level, with the potential for further gains towards 150.20 if bullish momentum persists. A corrective pullback to 147.34 could provide a buying opportunity before the next upward wave towards 149.40. Market participants will closely watch economic developments and BoJ policy signals to determine the yen’s next move.

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09 Mar

Brazilian Real Speculator bets jump, Yen bets hit new record high & Euro bets gain

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (40,789 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (37,671 contracts), the EuroFX (15,319 contracts), the British Pound (14,111 contracts), the Swiss Franc (1,685 contracts) and Bitcoin (410 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Mexican Peso (-9,274 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-5,864 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-2,653 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,056 contracts) and with the US Dollar Index (-994 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

FX Roundup: Brazilian Real bets jump, Japanese Yen bets hit new record high, Euro bets rise

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the sharp gains in some of the major currencies versus the US Dollar.

Brazilian Real: The Brazilian currency positioning saw a huge jump by over +40,000 net contracts this week. The net speculator position has now risen in four out of the past five weeks and is in bullish territory after a 39-week streak in bearish territory from May 2024 until January 28th 2025.

The BRL exchange rate remains near the lowest levels on record versus the US Dollar that were reached in December but there has been recent momentum as the BRL has gained in eight out of the past ten weeks.

Japanese Yen: The Japanese yen speculator positions rose sharply again this week with a second consecutive weekly gain by more than +35,000 contracts. Overall, the yen speculator bets have surged higher for seven straight weeks and by a total of +163,062 contracts in that time-frame. This has pushed the current net position to a new all-time record high level of +133,651 contracts this week and breaking last week’s record.

The JPY exchange rate continues to see positive movement as the futures price climbs and the USDJPY broke down through the 150 barrier on its way towards 145.00. The USDJPY is currently trading at 147.55 and has JPY improvement in six out the past eight weeks.

Euro: The Euro speculator position has steadily improved over the past few months and has increased for three straight weeks. The Euro bets have gained by a total of +59,458 contracts over the past nine weeks and brings the current net position to a total of -10,106 contracts. This is the lowest bearish position since November and contracts could go positive in the upcoming week as the Euro has been back in favor due to dollar weakness and policy announcements.

The EUR exchange rate had a huge week with a jump by almost 5 percent. The EURUSD was trading at 1.0200 in the middle of January and with the recent surges, the EUR closed out the week over the 1.0830 exchange level.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent), the Brazilian Real (93 percent) and Bitcoin (65 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Canadian Dollar (24 percent), the Swiss Franc (24 percent) and the EuroFX (25 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (37.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (39.3 percent)
EuroFX (24.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.1 percent)
British Pound Sterling (44.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (38.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (88.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (24.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (20.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (23.5 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (26.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (42.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (44.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (2.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (38.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (43.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (93.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (54.5 percent)
Bitcoin (64.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.7 percent)

Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (74 percent) and the Japanese Yen (47 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (20 percent), the Australian Dollar (16 percent) and the British Pound Sterling (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The New Zealand Dollar (-5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-0.3 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.2 percent)
EuroFX (19.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (13.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (12.1 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (1.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (46.7 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (39.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (8.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (3.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (13.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (16.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (22.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-5.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-1.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (10.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (73.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (35.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-2.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-24.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 14,738 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,732 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.1	17.1	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.4	55.6	6.6
– Net Position:	14,738	-15,048	310
– Gross Longs:	27,785	6,675	2,886
– Gross Shorts:	13,047	21,723	2,576
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.2	64.4	29.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.3	2.9	-15.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -10,106 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 15,319 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -25,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	55.1	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	57.9	7.9
– Net Position:	-10,106	-19,259	29,365
– Gross Longs:	185,223	376,930	83,321
– Gross Shorts:	195,329	396,189	53,956
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.9	74.7	38.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.9	-21.7	24.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,574 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 14,111 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,463 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	40.6	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	47.4	16.2
– Net Position:	18,574	-13,710	-4,864
– Gross Longs:	81,866	81,410	27,706
– Gross Shorts:	63,292	95,120	32,570
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.5	55.9	52.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.1	-16.9	32.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 133,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 37,671 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 95,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.8	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	70.0	9.3
– Net Position:	133,651	-145,919	12,268
– Gross Longs:	183,955	102,081	45,054
– Gross Shorts:	50,304	248,000	32,786
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	46.7	-45.5	15.6

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -37,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,460 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.7	81.0	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.7	31.5	22.9
– Net Position:	-37,775	48,071	-10,296
– Gross Longs:	5,572	78,617	11,964
– Gross Shorts:	43,347	30,546	22,260
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.3	77.8	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-15.8	23.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -143,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,864 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -137,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	79.5	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	33.9	10.5
– Net Position:	-143,770	154,980	-11,210
– Gross Longs:	22,175	270,391	24,406
– Gross Shorts:	165,945	115,411	35,616
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	79.9	10.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.3	2.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,233 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,653 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,580 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.3	55.2	12.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.1	27.0	16.5
– Net Position:	-48,233	57,029	-8,796
– Gross Longs:	55,151	111,644	24,680
– Gross Shorts:	103,384	54,615	33,476
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	63.9	25.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-13.6	-0.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -55,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,056 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,709 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	78.0	3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	74.0	19.0	6.2
– Net Position:	-55,765	58,610	-2,845
– Gross Longs:	17,843	77,550	3,282
– Gross Shorts:	73,608	18,940	6,127
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.1 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	17.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.3	5.4	-2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,456 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,730 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.3	49.7	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	61.6	3.9
– Net Position:	19,456	-17,305	-2,151
– Gross Longs:	65,679	72,102	3,500
– Gross Shorts:	46,223	89,407	5,651
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.7	65.3	10.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.7	-10.1	-7.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 40,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.8	27.2	2.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.0	68.6	2.1
– Net Position:	43,167	-43,814	647
– Gross Longs:	73,933	28,866	2,899
– Gross Shorts:	30,766	72,680	2,252
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	93.3	7.8	24.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	73.5	-74.4	10.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 204 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.7	3.3	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.6	5.2	4.6
– Net Position:	614	-516	-98
– Gross Longs:	24,469	937	1,186
– Gross Shorts:	23,855	1,453	1,284
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	50.6	3.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	12.2	-27.2

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Mar

Speculator Extremes: Japanese Yen, Brent, NZ Dollar & Cotton lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on March 4th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week as sentiment has shifted significantly for the yen in a quick period of time. The Japanese Yen speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent or a maximum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength change in score totaled 46.7 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,651 net contracts this week (a new record high) with a huge boost of 37,671 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:
Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.
These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Brent Oil

The Brent Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Brent Oil speculator level is now at a 100.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 20.0 this week. The speculator position registered -5,400 net contracts this week with a weekly jump by 23,056 contracts in speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level now resides at a 93.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 73.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 43,167 net contracts this week with a giant gain of 40,789 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Steel

The Steel speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Steel speculator level is at a 91.9 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 22.5 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,340 net contracts this week despite a change of -557 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds

The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Ultra U.S. Treasury Bonds speculator level sits at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.7 this week.

The speculator position was -231,904 net contracts this week with a dip of -4,169 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent or at the minimum score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -5.3 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,765 net contracts this week with a decline of -2,056 contracts in the speculator bets.

Cotton

The Cotton speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Cotton speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -13.5 this week. The speculator position was -62,137 net contracts this week with a drop of -18,651 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Soybean Meal speculator level resides at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -11.2 this week. The overall speculator position was -55,904 net contracts this week with a decrease by -19,792 contracts in the speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 7.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -68.0 this week. The speculator position was 154,841 net contracts this week with a reduction of -16,357 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

5-Year Bond

Finally, the 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 9.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -0.1 this week. The speculator position was -1,798,361 net contracts this week with a decline by -172,588 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.