Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 202

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.11.2021 (AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 0.7410 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 0.7420 is expected, followed by falling to 0.7275. An additional signal confirming the decline might become a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.7515, which will mean further growth to 0.7605.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.3487 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 1.3540 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3295. The decline can be additionally confirmed by a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3755, which will entail further growth to 1.3845.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

Gold is trading at 0.7137 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.7150 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6965. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.7205, which will entail further growth to 0.7305.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1552
  • Prev Close: 1.1567
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

Europe is again in the epicenter of the COVID-19 Pandemic. According to the WHO, hospitalizations of patients with Covid-19 have more than doubled in just one week, with cases approaching record levels due to the more infectious Delta strain. All of this could lead to new quarantine restrictions in European countries, undoubtedly leading to lower economic numbers.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1502, 1.1453
  • Resistance levels: 1.1573, 1.1618, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But the price managed to return above the breakdown level, which indicates a possible false break move. The MACD indicator also shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the false breakdown zone.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.11.08:
  • – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FED Chair Powell’s Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:55 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 20:50 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3496
  • Prev Close: 1.3494
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

The British pound is under intense selling pressure after the central bank of England did not tighten its monetary policy. Before the meeting, analysts were sure that it would happen, and the Governor of the Bank of England said that such a possibility existed. The British currency is now looking less confident than the Euro. The British pound may be supported only by the growing Brent oil quotes, as these two instruments are historically correlated.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3482, 1.3360
  • Resistance levels: 1.3562, 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. After Friday’s false breakdown, traders can look for buy trades on the lower time frames with the expectation of a technical rebound. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average, as prices have deviated strongly from the averages.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3685 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.11.08:
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.75
  • Prev Close: 113.39
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

At the moment, there is no fundamental reason for the JPY to strengthen. Firstly, the Bank of Japan has kept its monetary policy soft until the end of the year. Secondly, the Fed started to tighten its monetary policy, making the dollar index stronger and leading to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. Thirdly, investors often use the Japanese yen for borrowing to buy assets such as stocks, which usually negatively affect the Japanese currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 113.42, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
  • Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price attempted to break down the “triangle,” but the movement was weak, and the buyers returned the price to the wide corridor, forming a false breakdown zone below. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone on the lower time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher time frame, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2455
  • Prev Close: 1.2452
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. On Friday, the dollar index remained at the same level, while oil prices increased by the end of the day. As a result, USD/CAD quotes slightly decreased due to strengthening the Canadian currency. The unemployment rate in Canada fell from 6.9% to 6.7%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2428, 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
  • Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency trend has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and there are no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2351 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Resigned to Pressure

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

At the beginning of the second week of November, euro/dollar is trading at 1.1560. The market keeps supporting the USD, and there are reasons for it.

According to statistics, the unemployment rate in October dropped to 4.6%, which is quite good. Average hourly wage over the reporting period increased by 0.4% m/m, which is a great result. The NFP in October grew above the expected – by 531 thousand.

On the whole, the employment statistics was positive, which supported the dollar. However, it felt quite confident earlier: the results of the Fed conference in November went according the expectations. The Fed cut down on stimulation as forecast.

On H4, EUR/USD performed a wave of decline to 1.1514 and a correction to 1.1560. The correction might continue to 1.1626. When it is over, the next wave of decline should continue, aiming at 1.1480. The goal is local. Then we expect a link of growth to 1.1560. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD: its signal line is trading below zero. Today, the indicator signals a possible correction. When it is over, we expect the signal lines renew next lows.

On H1, EUR/USD bounces off 1.1615 and performed another link of a declining wave to 1.1514. Today the market has performed a correction to 1.1558 and at the moment is trading in the consolidation range. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 1.1605 (at least) will open. With an escape downwards, trend will continue to 1.1480. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is trading above 50. We expect growth to 80. Then the indicator might drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Pfizer and Merek are going to approve COVID-19 drug

by JustForex

Last week, investors’ attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data and the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced the reduction of the QE program. An interest rate hike is scheduled for the middle of next year. The labor market statistics were improving. The US economy added 531,000 (vs. 455 000 expected) jobs in October. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.6%. On the other hand, the US labor productivity fell in the third quarter, reflecting a sharp slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the number of working hours.

The US stock market ended Friday’s trading with growth. At the close of the day the Dow Jones increased by 0.56% (+1.38% for the week), the S&P 500 gained 0.37% (+1.88% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index increased by 0.20% (+2.77% for the week). But last week’s growth leader was the Russell 2000 index, which jumped by 5.88% by the end of the week, indicating the strengthening of small-cap companies. All four indices hit new all-time highs on Friday.

Pfizer announced that their antiviral COVID-19 drug reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in an interim analysis of the EPIC-HR phase 2/3 study. The company plans to provide data to the FDA soon for approval for emergency use of the drug. Already more than 50 countries appealed to Pfizer for the COVID-19 medicine.

The UK will begin releasing Merck’s antiviral tablet Molnupiravir as part of a drug trial against COVID-19 later this month.

The White House says it is preparing to purchase the COVID-19 drug from both Merck and Pfizer.

European stock indices also closed the week with growth. By the end of the week, the British FTSE 100 gained 0.92%, the German DAX added 1.84%, the Spanish IBEX 35 increased by 0.7%, the Italian FTSE MIB added 2.24%, and the French CAC 40 jumped by 2.48% and became a growth leader. Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly decreased in September, indicating a long-term impact of restrictions on the supply and shortage of semiconductors.

Asian stocks fell on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei index decreased by 0.61% (+2.75% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.41% (-1.57% for the week), China’s benchmark CSI 300 index decreased by 0.54% (-0.73% for the week), the exception was Australia’s ASX 200, which increased by 0.39% (+1.60% for the week) on Friday.

In the commodities market, sugar futures (+3.68%), natural gas (+3.63%), lumber (+3.3%), palladium (+2.46%), gold (+2.02%), and cotton (+1.95%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Soybean oil futures (-3.93%), cocoa (-3.77%), soybeans (-3.64%), WTI oil (-2.87%), gasoline (-2.73%), corn (-2.73%), and orange juice (-2.72%) showed the largest drop.

Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies rejected US President Joe Biden’s calls for a significant increase in production. That leaves Biden’s ability to use the US strategic reserve.

“The oil market is short of supply, it has entered a period of strong volatility, and prices will continue to rise in the near and medium-term. The emerging disagreement between OPEC and the US administration, the possible release of oil from the US strategic reserves, and the potential resumption of talks with Iran on the nuclear program will increase the volatility of oil prices in the coming weeks,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Gold prices unexpectedly increased last week, despite rises in both the dollar index and government bond yields, which have an inverse correlation with gold prices. Analysts are confident that the rise in gold is not supported fundamentally, so they expect gold and silver prices to decline in the coming weeks.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,697.53 +17.47 (+0.37%)

Dow Jones 36,327.95 +203.72 (+0.56%)

DAX 16,054.36 +24.71 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 7,303.96 +24.05 (+0.33%)

USD Index 94.22 -0.13 (-0.14%)

Important events for today:
  • – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FED Chair Powell’s Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:55 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 20:50 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound

By Orbex

USDCHF struggles for bids

USDCHF

The US dollar bounced higher on solid jobs performance in October. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off.

Sellers have started to cover after a close above the immediate support at 0.9170. However, the initial momentum was held back after the RSI shot into the overbought territory.

The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.9225, which sits on the 30-day moving average to attract more followers. On the downside, a break below 0.9100 may trigger a fall towards 0.9020.

USDCAD tests supply area

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar claws back some losses after Canada’s unemployment rate shrank to 6.7% in October. The US dollar’s break above 1.2430 has put the bears under pressure.

An overbought RSI has put a limit on the upside as intraday buyers take profit. The bulls are making an attempt at 1.2500. This level was a key support on the daily chart and has now turned into a resistance.

A bullish breakout may pave the way for a bullish reversal. A fall below 1.2375 would put the demand zone over 1.2300 at the test once again.

US 30 rises as risk appetite grows

US30

The Dow Jones 30 finds support from the passage of the $1 trillion US infrastructure bill. The index saw an acceleration to the upside after it rallied above the previous peak at 35600.

Sentiment remains bullish with short-term price action grinding up along a rising trendline. 36600 would be the next target.

The RSI’s overbought situation has led to a temporary retracement which could be an opportunity for trend followers to stake in. 36070 on the trendline is the first level where we can expect a rebound.


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

COT Currency Charts: Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 34-Week High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 2nd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s boost of their New Zealand dollar bets. Speculator net positions for the NZD increased for a second consecutive week this week and for the seventh time out of the past nine weeks (9-week total of +16,002 contracts). This recent bullishness has brought the net speculator positions to over +13,000 contracts which is the highest level in the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to March 9th. NZD positions had been in negative or bearish territory as recently as August 31st before this recent bullishness propelled them higher.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-02-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,9478534,98286-42,05357,07194
EUR678,02475-6,13833-22,7286928,86626
GBP166,7801815,04785-11,73223-3,31549
JPY251,05889-107,6241126,00599-18,38112
CHF51,61330-20,6483425,49760-4,84949
CAD156,194344,16258-27,4413423,27982
AUD162,88854-75,4961473,970741,52656
NZD45,4363513,86195-16,62552,76483
MXN167,67632-51,018048,7951002,22352
RUB61,6017319,98261-21,882351,90086
BRL31,67433-14,2725014,35753-8566
Bitcoin13,51277-1,6126642101,19125

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.33.315.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.075.93.0
– Net Position:34,982-42,0537,071
– Gross Longs:45,3951,9118,799
– Gross Shorts:10,41343,9641,728
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.0 to 15.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.14.793.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-19.419.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.257.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.161.38.2
– Net Position:-6,138-22,72828,866
– Gross Longs:191,496392,88284,160
– Gross Shorts:197,634415,61055,294
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.169.325.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.66.1-5.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.347.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.354.118.4
– Net Position:15,047-11,732-3,315
– Gross Longs:57,25578,42027,293
– Gross Shorts:42,20890,15230,608
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.822.748.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.0-7.6-5.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.182.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.032.515.7
– Net Position:-107,624126,005-18,381
– Gross Longs:20,337207,61220,944
– Gross Shorts:127,96181,60739,325
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.398.712.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.229.5-16.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.870.626.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.821.235.5
– Net Position:-20,64825,497-4,849
– Gross Longs:1,43936,45613,485
– Gross Shorts:22,08710,95918,334
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.959.649.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.01.130.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.943.928.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.261.513.3
– Net Position:4,162-27,44123,279
– Gross Longs:42,03768,54244,037
– Gross Shorts:37,87595,98320,758
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.534.581.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.7-29.021.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.871.515.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.126.114.9
– Net Position:-75,49673,9701,526
– Gross Longs:19,187116,46425,749
– Gross Shorts:94,68342,49424,223
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.674.156.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-21.244.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.523.513.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.060.06.9
– Net Position:13,861-16,6252,764
– Gross Longs:27,50410,6595,893
– Gross Shorts:13,64327,2843,129
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.883.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-11.418.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.759.13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.130.02.0
– Net Position:-51,01848,7952,223
– Gross Longs:61,55399,0345,560
– Gross Shorts:112,57150,2393,337
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.052.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.515.0-6.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.461.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.416.59.8
– Net Position:-14,27214,357-85
– Gross Longs:8,98919,5743,023
– Gross Shorts:23,2615,2173,108
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.552.665.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.828.2-13.3

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.136.34.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.671.81.5
– Net Position:19,982-21,8821,900
– Gross Longs:36,38922,3692,843
– Gross Shorts:16,40744,251943
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.735.486.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-4.910.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.15.414.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.02.35.6
– Net Position:-1,6124211,191
– Gross Longs:9,0627271,943
– Gross Shorts:10,674306752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 12.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.678.224.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.741.65.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 05.11.2021 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1554; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1565 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1470. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1620. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1705.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1796.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1790.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1845.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1765.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1735.00.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9123; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.9140 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9005. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9195. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9285. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fix below 0.9075.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 05.11.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending structure at 1.1527, EURUSD is consolidating above this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may correct towards 1.1570; if to the downside – resume falling to break 1.1480 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 1.1404.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.3500, GBPUSD is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may correct towards 1.3580; if to the downside – resume falling with the short-term target at 1.3333.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

After breaking 71.95 to the upside, USDRUB is expected to continue the correction towards 72.70. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 70.60 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 71.50.

USDRUB
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has finished the descending wave at 113.50. Possibly, today the pair may correct towards 113.91 and then resume falling to break 113.25. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards with the target at 112.80.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9125. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range down to 0.9096 and then start another growth towards 0.9155. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach 0.9080. Later, the market may resume growing to break 0.9155 and then continue trading within the uptrend with the target at 0.9250.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.7378; right now, it is consolidating above this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may correct towards 0.7470; if to the downside – resume falling with the target at 0.7317.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

BRENT

After completing another ascending structure at 85.08 and rebounding from this level to the downside, Brent is falling towards 79.00 and may later trade upwards to test 82.04 from below. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 77.55.

BRENT
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating below 1798.90. Possibly, the metal may fall to test 1784.35 from above. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending wave to break 1809.50 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 1833.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

The S&P index continues growing towards 4690.0. Later, the market may correct to reach 4666.6 and then start a new growth with the target at 4702.5.

S&P 500

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.05

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1612
  • Prev Close: 1.1552
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.52%

After the ECB announced that its stimulus program won’t be cut this year, analysts changed their forecasts and expect an interest rate hike in Europe from 2023. Yesterday, the ECB spokesman De Kos said that at the moment, it is unclear about how long the current rise in inflation will last.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1502, 1.1453
  • Resistance levels: 1.1573, 1.1618, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But the price managed to return above the breakdown level, which indicates a possible false break move. The MACD indicator also indicates a divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels of lower time frames, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.11.05:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3687
  • Prev Close: 1.3498
  • % chg. over the last day: -1.40%

The central bank of Great Britain did not change its monetary policy. The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 0.1% and asset purchases at 895 billion pounds per month. Against this news, the British pound has sharply fallen. Analysts are postponing expectations of the Bank of England’s first- rate hike until February next year.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3482, 1.3360
  • Resistance levels: 1.3562, 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator became negative, but there are signs of oversold, and the price has reached the resistance level of the higher time frame. Traders can look for buy trades on the lower time frames now, but only with short targets. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average, as a price has deviated strongly from the averages.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3685 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.99
  • Prev Close: 113.74
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.22%

In “urgent proposals” to implement Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s vision of “new capitalism,” the group applied to the government to encourage businesses to raise wages using incentives, including tax breaks and subsidies. In general, the Japanese Yen is heavily influenced by the dollar index now, as Japan’s stimulus program will remain until the end of the year.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 113.42, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
  • Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in a wide price corridor; there are signs of narrowing liquidity in the form of a “triangle”. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher time frame, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2389
  • Prev Close: 1.2455
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.53%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depend on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index slightly increased yesterday, while oil prices decreased by the end of the day. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes significantly increased due to the strengthening of the US currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2428, 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
  • Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2351 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2021.11.05:
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

GBPJPY Bullish Impulse Nears Completion

By Orbex

The GBPJPY currency pair suggests the development of the final part of the cycle wave y, which takes the form of a double zigzag and consists of sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. Now the last actionary wave Ⓨ is under development.

Apparently, the primary wave Ⓨ is a standard zigzag (A)-(B)-(C).

At the end of September, the intermediate correction (B), which has the form of a triple zigzag, was completed. Then the market began to grow in an impulse wave (C). It consists of minor sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5, where the first four sub-waves already formed.

In the near future, growth is possible in sub-wave 5 near 160.64. At that level, wave (C) will be at 61.8% of wave (A).

GBPJPY

An alternative scenario suggests the formation of a large triple zigzag, within which the development of the primary intervening wave Ⓧ is now taking place.

The internal structure of this wave is similar to a triple zigzag of the intermediate degree. The sub-waves (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X) could have ended.

Currently, an actionary wave (Z) is forming, which can take the form of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z. Then a decline in the minor sub-waves Y-X-Z to the previous low of 149.00 is likely.


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com