InvestMacro

By Orbex

EURUSD struggles to rebound

The euro bounced back after PMI readings in the eurozone exceeded expectations. The pair is testing July 2020’s lows around 1.1200.

The RSI’s oversold situation on the daily chart may limit the downward pressure for now. We can expect a ‘buying-the-dips’ crowd as price action stabilizes. Sentiment remains fragile though and sellers may fade the next rebound.

The bulls will need to lift 1.1360 before a reversal could take shape. Failing that, a bearish breakout would trigger a new round of sell-off towards 1.1100.

NZDUSD lacks support

The New Zealand dollar softened after the RBNZ met market expectations and raised its cash rate by 25bps.

The downward pressure has increased after 0.6980 failed to contain the sell-off. The pair has given up all gains from the October rally, suggesting a lack of interest in bidding up the kiwi.

An oversold RSI caused a rebound as short-term traders took profit and the bears were swift in selling into strength. The directional bias remains bearish unless 0.7010 is cleared. The September low at 0.6860 is the next support.

UKOIL bounces back

Brent crude recovers on speculation that OPEC+ may lower production to counter a release of strategic reserves.

A break below 79.30 has shaken out the weak hands. The price has met buying interest over the daily demand zone around 77.70, which coincides with last July’s peak. A surge above 82.00 puts the bears on the defensive.

Short-covering would exacerbate short-term volatility. An overbought RSI may cause a brief pullback. Then 85.50 is a key hurdle before the uptrend could resume.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones index increased by 0.55%, the S&P 500 index added 0.17%, and the NASDAQ index decreased by 0.50%. The Nasdaq technology showed the drop since rising Treasury yields put pressure on major technology stocks. At the same time, gains in bank stocks and energy stocks helped limit broader market losses.

FOMC protocols are expected to be released today, along with a number of other important US economic data before tomorrow’s bank holiday. Any hints from the Fed to accelerate the pace of QE reduction or to raise interest rates could push the dollar index higher. If the pace of the cuts remains the same, the dollar index may start a technical correction.

A rise in the dollar index usually leads to higher government bond yields and lower gold and silver prices, which have an inverse correlation to Treasury yields. Gold has already dropped below $1800 per troy ounce and this downward trend is likely to continue.

European stock markets were mostly down yesterday. German DAX decreased by 1.11%, French CAC 40 decreased by 0.85%, Italian FTSE MIB lost 1.62%, Spanish IBEX decreased by 0.07%. The only exception was the British FTSE 100, which added 0.15%. In the UK, there is an increase in business activity. Data for October showed a rise in the manufacturing sector, while in the services sector the data was negative. With expectations of an interest rate hike from the Bank of England, the British pound might be strengthened soon.

After fixing a record daily sickness rate, Germany is considering options to tighten its anti-covids measures, including introducing regional lockdowns as the Netherlands has already done. Meanwhile, Germany has one of the lowest rates of vaccinated citizens in Western Europe. Analysts believe that a new wave of disease in Europe will cause more economic problems in December.

The United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom plan to release oil from strategic reserves to decrease global oil prices. Biden’s decision to use the US strategic oil reserve calls for a release of 50 million barrels. But the long-awaited coordinated release of oil with other major consuming countries has so far only increased oil prices by more than 3%, which was unexpected for the White House. Analysts believe that the release of inventories is hardly enough to meet global needs. Barclays Bank raised its forecast for average oil prices for the next 2022 to $77 and $80 a barrel of WTI and Brent, respectively.

The Turkish lira dropped another 10% while continuing to fall, to 12 per dollar after Erdogan acted at lower interest rates. Turkey’s inflation rate is second after Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Analysts had expected an increase of 50 b.p. This is the second rate hike within the last 2 months. This is the Central Bank of New Zealand’s response to the fight against inflation. New Zealand consumer prices increased to 4.9% in annual terms, well above the RBNZ target of 1.0-3.0%.

Asia-Pacific stock markets are decreasing in Wednesday trading. Technology sector companies are among the leaders of the fall on Asian exchanges because of the increase in government bond yields. The growth of government bond yields leads to an increase in the discount rate used for the valuation of shares. In addition, it affects the technology companies most of all because the perspectives of the rapid growth of profits are laid in these companies.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,690.70 +7.76 (+0.17%)

Dow Jones 35,813.80 +194.55 (+0.55%)

DAX 15,937.00 −178.69 (−1.11%)

FTSE 100 7,266.69 +11.23 (+0.15%)

USD Index 96.49 −0.06 (−0.06%)

• – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 03:00 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 03:00 (GMT+2);
• – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 04:00 (GMT+2);
• – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Prelim GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US PCE price index (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 19:00 (GMT+2);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By The Market Research Team, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After completing another descending structure at 1.1230, EURUSD is expected to correct towards 1.1277. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to reach 1.1195 and then start another correction with the target at 1.1350.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 1.3396, GBPUSD is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.3290; if to the upside – start another correction with the target at 1.3455.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has completed the ascending wave at 74.84; right now. it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, the pair may break the range downwards and form a new descending structure with the first target at 72.72.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still growing. Possibly, today the pair may reach 115.40 and then form a new consolidation range there. If the price grows and breaks this range to the upside, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 115.88.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After completing the ascending wave at 0.9330, USDCHF has formed a new consolidation range below this level. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction towards 0.9297 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9350.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has finished another descending structure at 0.7222; right now, it is consolidating around this level. Possibly, today the pair may break the range to the downside and resume falling towards 0.7170. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.7260 and then start another decline with the target at 0.7150.

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating above 78.20. Today, the asset may break the range upwards and correct to reach 82.00. Later, the market may resume falling with the target at 77.40.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After finishing another descending wave at 1810.50, Gold has formed a new consolidation range фриovу this level. Possibly, the metal may break the range to the upside and reach 1844.44.

S&P 500

The S&P index has completed the descending wave at 4683.7; right now, it is consolidating around this level. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 4633.6 and then form another ascending wave with the target at 4683.7.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1238; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1280 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1085. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1435. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1525.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 115.03; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 114.50 and then resume moving upwards to reach 116.20. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 113.40. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 112.45.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7219; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7255 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7140. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7360. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7445.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.1285
• Prev Close: 1.1233
• % chg. over the last day: -0.46%

Inflationary expectations are rising again in Germany. The Bundesbank predicts a jump in inflation to a level close to 6%. The euro continues to decline against the dollar after Powell’s reappointment. With the ECB planning to start cutting back its stimulus program only next March, the Euro will continue to decline against the dollar in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1256, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1386, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From a technical point of view, the EUR/USD is bearish on the hour time frame. The Euro continues to show weakness. The MACD indicator has become negative again, but there are signs of divergence at several time frames, so traders should expect a technical rebound. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average since the price has deviated strongly from the averages. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1386 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.23:

• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3445
• Prev Close: 1.3394
• % chg. over the last day: -0.38%

Traders are increasingly negative on the pound, betting that the decline will continue, which has already brought the currency close to its lowest level this year. The strength of the dollar, Brexit, and doubts in the decisiveness of the Bank of England are putting pressure on the currency.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become negative, sellers’ pressure intensified. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance level near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3507 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.11.23:

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 114.03
• Prev Close: 114.86
• % chg. over the last day: +0.73%

Today, it’s a bank holiday in Japan, so the Japanese Yen will be fully correlated with the dollar index. Yesterday, the USD/JPY quotes jumped sharply due to the strengthening of the dollar index. Fundamentally, the Japanese Yen will continue to decline against the USD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 114.38, 113.79, 113.32, 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Yesterday, the quotes jumped sharply, forming below the buyers’ initiative zones. The MACD indicator is positive, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone near the moving average. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of higher time frames, given there is sellers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 113.79, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today. Bank holiday.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2639
• Prev Close: 1.2699
• % chg. over the last day: +0.47%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. Yesterday, the dollar index increased sharply on the news of the Fed governor reappointment, while oil quotes decreased on possible oil reserves released by the USA, Japan, and India. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair increased due to the strengthening US dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2729

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence on several time frames, which indicates the weakness of the buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels near the moving average, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2571 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

The formation of the USDCNH currency pair involves the development of a large intervening wave x of the cycle degree. It is a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. The final primary wave Ⓨ is currently under development.

Apparently, wave Ⓨ takes the form of a triple combination (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z). In early November, the intermediate wave (X), consisting of three main sub-waves W-X-Y, ended.

Then prices fell within the wave (Z). Currently, the minor sub-waves W-X, which form an intermediate double zigzag (Z) have ended. The price decline in wave Y could reach the level of 6.319. At that level, wave (Z) will be 76.4% of wave (Y).

An alternative scenario hints at an almost completed cycle intervening wave x.

In this case, it has the form of a primary double zigzag Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. And its final wave Ⓨ is a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of the intermediate degree, for the construction of which the final section of the sub-wave Z is necessary.

The end of this wave is possible near 6.360. At that level, wave (Y) will be at 123.6% of wave (W).

After reaching the specified price level, we can expect a bullish cycle wave z to develop to a maximum of 6.528.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

The current NZDUSD structure indicates that a large bullish triple zigzag is forming in the market. This is the cycle wave y of the global uptrend.

This zigzag consists of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ which, in turn, include intermediate sub-waves. The first four sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ have been fully completed. At the moment, most likely, the development of a bullish wave Ⓩ is taking place.

Wave Ⓩ can take the form of a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y), as indicated on the chart.

Thus, in the near future, the market could grow in a zigzag pattern to the 0.741 area. The goal is determined using the Fibonacci extension. At that level, wave Ⓩ will be at 123.6% of wave Ⓨ.

An alternative scenario suggests that the development of a global bearish correction wave x of the cycle degree could be incomplete. Now we see the completion of the primary sub-wave Ⓩ, which is in the last part of the wave x.

Wave Ⓩ, according to internal structure is a triple zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z) of the intermediate degree.

Most likely, we are now seeing the development of the final actionary wave (Z). This wave can end near 0.682 and then move higher to 0.721.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

GBPUSD hits resistance

The pound pulled back after Britain’s retail sales registered a steeper drop to -1.3% in October.

The pair has met stiff selling pressure in the supply zone around 1.3510, a support that has turned into resistance after a failed rebound. An oversold RSI may cause a limited rebound.

However, a bearish MA cross on the daily chart suggests that sentiment is still pessimistic. 1.3380 is a key support to keep the sterling afloat. A bearish breakout may trigger an extended sell-off to last December’s lows around 1.3200.

USDCAD breaks higher

The Canadian dollar struggles after a contraction in September’s retail numbers. The US dollar bounced off the resistance-turned-support at 1.2580. This is a sign that the bulls are still in control.

A bullish MA cross on the daily timeframe confirms the directional bias for the next few days. The daily resistance at 1.2770 would be the next target. Its break would lead to a test of the double top at 1.2900.

In the meantime, the RSI’s overextension has temporarily held the bulls back. We can also expect buying interest during dips.

GER 40 struggles for support

The Dax 40 tumbles as lockdowns across Europe hurt sentiment.

The RSI’s overbought situation on the daily chart has made buyers cautious in pursuing high valuations. On the hourly chart, a bearish RSI divergence suggests a deceleration in the upward momentum.

Then a dip below 16200 confirms weakness in the rally, prompting leverage positions to liquidate. The psychological level of 16000 is a congestion area as it coincides with last August’s peak and the 20-day moving average. 16300 is now a fresh hurdle.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com