COT Currency Charts: Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 34-Week High

November 6, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 2nd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s boost of their New Zealand dollar bets. Speculator net positions for the NZD increased for a second consecutive week this week and for the seventh time out of the past nine weeks (9-week total of +16,002 contracts). This recent bullishness has brought the net speculator positions to over +13,000 contracts which is the highest level in the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to March 9th. NZD positions had been in negative or bearish territory as recently as August 31st before this recent bullishness propelled them higher.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-02-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 57,947 85 34,982 86 -42,053 5 7,071 94
EUR 678,024 75 -6,138 33 -22,728 69 28,866 26
GBP 166,780 18 15,047 85 -11,732 23 -3,315 49
JPY 251,058 89 -107,624 1 126,005 99 -18,381 12
CHF 51,613 30 -20,648 34 25,497 60 -4,849 49
CAD 156,194 34 4,162 58 -27,441 34 23,279 82
AUD 162,888 54 -75,496 14 73,970 74 1,526 56
NZD 45,436 35 13,861 95 -16,625 5 2,764 83
MXN 167,676 32 -51,018 0 48,795 100 2,223 52
RUB 61,601 73 19,982 61 -21,882 35 1,900 86
BRL 31,674 33 -14,272 50 14,357 53 -85 66
Bitcoin 13,512 77 -1,612 66 421 0 1,191 25

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.


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US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.3 3.3 15.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 18.0 75.9 3.0
– Net Position: 34,982 -42,053 7,071
– Gross Longs: 45,395 1,911 8,799
– Gross Shorts: 10,413 43,964 1,728
– Long to Short Ratio: 4.4 to 1 0.0 to 1 5.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.1 4.7 93.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 17.0 -19.4 19.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.2 57.9 12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 29.1 61.3 8.2
– Net Position: -6,138 -22,728 28,866
– Gross Longs: 191,496 392,882 84,160
– Gross Shorts: 197,634 415,610 55,294
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 0.9 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.1 69.3 25.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.6 6.1 -5.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 34.3 47.0 16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 25.3 54.1 18.4
– Net Position: 15,047 -11,732 -3,315
– Gross Longs: 57,255 78,420 27,293
– Gross Shorts: 42,208 90,152 30,608
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.9 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 84.8 22.7 48.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 11.0 -7.6 -5.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 8.1 82.7 8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 51.0 32.5 15.7
– Net Position: -107,624 126,005 -18,381
– Gross Longs: 20,337 207,612 20,944
– Gross Shorts: 127,961 81,607 39,325
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.5 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 1.3 98.7 12.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -32.2 29.5 -16.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 2.8 70.6 26.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 42.8 21.2 35.5
– Net Position: -20,648 25,497 -4,849
– Gross Longs: 1,439 36,456 13,485
– Gross Shorts: 22,087 10,959 18,334
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 33.9 59.6 49.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.0 1.1 30.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 26.9 43.9 28.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 24.2 61.5 13.3
– Net Position: 4,162 -27,441 23,279
– Gross Longs: 42,037 68,542 44,037
– Gross Shorts: 37,875 95,983 20,758
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.1 to 1 0.7 to 1 2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 58.5 34.5 81.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 26.7 -29.0 21.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 11.8 71.5 15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 58.1 26.1 14.9
– Net Position: -75,496 73,970 1,526
– Gross Longs: 19,187 116,464 25,749
– Gross Shorts: 94,683 42,494 24,223
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 2.7 to 1 1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 13.6 74.1 56.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.5 -21.2 44.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 60.5 23.5 13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 30.0 60.0 6.9
– Net Position: 13,861 -16,625 2,764
– Gross Longs: 27,504 10,659 5,893
– Gross Shorts: 13,643 27,284 3,129
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.0 to 1 0.4 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 94.5 4.8 83.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 9.7 -11.4 18.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 36.7 59.1 3.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 67.1 30.0 2.0
– Net Position: -51,018 48,795 2,223
– Gross Longs: 61,553 99,034 5,560
– Gross Shorts: 112,571 50,239 3,337
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.5 to 1 2.0 to 1 1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 52.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -14.5 15.0 -6.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 28.4 61.8 9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 73.4 16.5 9.8
– Net Position: -14,272 14,357 -85
– Gross Longs: 8,989 19,574 3,023
– Gross Shorts: 23,261 5,217 3,108
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 3.8 to 1 1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 49.5 52.6 65.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.8 28.2 -13.3

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 59.1 36.3 4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 26.6 71.8 1.5
– Net Position: 19,982 -21,882 1,900
– Gross Longs: 36,389 22,369 2,843
– Gross Shorts: 16,407 44,251 943
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.2 to 1 0.5 to 1 3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.7 35.4 86.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 4.1 -4.9 10.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 67.1 5.4 14.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 79.0 2.3 5.6
– Net Position: -1,612 421 1,191
– Gross Longs: 9,062 727 1,943
– Gross Shorts: 10,674 306 752
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 2.4 to 1 2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.6 78.2 24.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -13.7 41.6 5.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.