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US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Canadian Dollar & Euro

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (13,166 contracts) with the EuroFX (9,582 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (4,043 contracts) and the Japanese Yen (1,400 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-8,462 contracts), the Brazilian Real (-6,962 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,716 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,172 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-3,066 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-888 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-377 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

US Dollar Index Speculators drop their bets to lowest level since 2021

The U.S. dollar index speculator position dropped this week for a second consecutive week and is now at the lowest level in the past 225 weeks. This is the lowest standing dating back to March 9th of 2021 when the speculator positions were negative by over -8,000 contracts.

The U.S. dollar index speculator position has fallen by -7,436 contracts in the last two weeks and by over -22,000 contracts in the last 15 weeks, going from +16,835 contracts on March 11th to -6,034 contracts this week.

Despite geopolitical turmoil over the last few weeks, the dollar index has not experienced safe haven flows and is now trading under the 98.00 exchange rate. This is the lowest level since 2022 when the index was on the rise up and culminated later that year at a high of nearly 115.00 in September 2022. The dollar index is now down about 12% since the beginning of the year after starting the year near the 110.00 exchange rate.

Quick Roundup:

Other Currencies:
– Non-US dollar contracts are improving week to week and month to month.
– Negative contracts at this point are the Swiss franc, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the US dollar index and Bitcoin.

Euro:
– Speculator positions have risen for five consecutive weeks and by over 36,000 contracts over that period.
– The Euro speculator position is now back over +100,000 contracts for the second consecutive week.
– The Euro positions are now at their highest level since January of 2024.

Japanese Yen:
– Speculator bets have cooled off somewhat after hitting record high in the last few months.
– The currency has been consolidating over the last two months, however it is up about 10% since beginning of the year.

Swiss Franc:
– Continues to have a negative large speculator position but has been steadily improving since the beginning of the year.
– It has halved its negative position to the current level of -20,000 contracts.
– Swiss franc has benefited from safe haven flows, rising approximately 15% against the U.S. dollar since January

Australian Dollar:
– The AUD exchange rate is up about 5% against the U.S. dollar in 2025.
– However, the speculator position is the most bearish out of all the major currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate in May meeting.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (87 percent) and the Brazilian Real (81 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), New Zealand Dollar (68 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (64 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent) and Bitcoin (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.6 percent)
EuroFX (71.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (67.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (52.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (87.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (86.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (58.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (60.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (64.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (58.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (24.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (27.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (67.7 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (63.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (54.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (58.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (80.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (86.5 percent)
Bitcoin (4.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (12.4 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (29 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (13 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (10 percent), the Swiss Franc (4 percent) and the British Pound (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

Bitcoin (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Australian Dollar (-16 percent), the US Dollar Index (-12 percent) and the Japanese Yen (-11 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-11.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-4.0 percent)
EuroFX (10.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (3.4 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (6.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (-11.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-12.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (4.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (7.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (13.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (1.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-16.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-14.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (29.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-7.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-5.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (1.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.7 percent)
Bitcoin (-29.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-0.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -6,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,066 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,968 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.5	40.4	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.9	18.8	11.4
– Net Position:	-6,034	6,748	-714
– Gross Longs:	13,283	12,617	2,840
– Gross Shorts:	19,317	5,869	3,554
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	20.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	11.3	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 111,135 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 9,582 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 101,553 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.3	54.7	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	76.3	5.5
– Net Position:	111,135	-164,301	53,166
– Gross Longs:	223,791	417,363	94,870
– Gross Shorts:	112,656	581,664	41,704
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	25.2	86.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.0	-10.2	7.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 34,395 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,857 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.4	48.5	14.6
– Net Position:	34,395	-44,035	9,640
– Gross Longs:	99,848	43,166	35,906
– Gross Shorts:	65,453	87,201	26,266
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.7	45.6	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-5.0	10.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 132,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 130,877 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.7	29.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.7	76.2	8.0
– Net Position:	132,277	-147,710	15,433
– Gross Longs:	178,403	92,034	40,462
– Gross Shorts:	46,126	239,744	25,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.1	13.7	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	9.4	6.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -20,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	65.8	22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	35.9	22.0
– Net Position:	-20,944	20,768	176
– Gross Longs:	8,184	45,702	15,449
– Gross Shorts:	29,128	24,934	15,273
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	33.4	79.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-3.6	0.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -53,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 13,166 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -66,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	67.5	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	42.4	12.3
– Net Position:	-53,167	50,430	2,737
– Gross Longs:	25,267	135,776	27,452
– Gross Shorts:	78,434	85,346	24,715
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.1	35.0	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.0	-17.6	35.7

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -72,562 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,172 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	64.9	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.4	18.2	13.7
– Net Position:	-72,562	70,475	2,087
– Gross Longs:	23,249	97,992	22,820
– Gross Shorts:	95,811	27,517	20,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.8	72.0	54.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.5	11.7	9.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 2,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,043 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,273 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.1	38.5	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	47.2	7.3
– Net Position:	2,770	-3,877	1,107
– Gross Longs:	18,619	17,004	4,355
– Gross Shorts:	15,849	20,881	3,248
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	29.8	67.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	29.3	-29.2	7.8

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,716 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 58,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.0	37.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	75.5	1.8
– Net Position:	51,311	-55,780	4,469
– Gross Longs:	83,729	55,155	7,127
– Gross Shorts:	32,418	110,935	2,658
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.9	45.5	47.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.3	7.1	3.5

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 44,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 51,692 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.1	33.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.3	70.2	1.0
– Net Position:	44,730	-48,182	3,452
– Gross Longs:	66,374	44,952	4,804
– Gross Shorts:	21,644	93,134	1,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.8	17.9	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.0	-0.9	-0.6

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,161 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,784 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	77.3	6.9	4.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	84.2	1.5	3.3
– Net Position:	-2,161	1,692	469
– Gross Longs:	24,232	2,152	1,497
– Gross Shorts:	26,393	460	1,028
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	94.3	61.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.1	3.2	61.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

27 Jun

Week Ahead: EURUSD set to rally towards key 1.20 level?

By ForexTime

EURUSD ↑ 3% MTD, trading near 4-year highs
ECB forum in Sintra + key EU/US data = fresh volatility?
EURUSD forecasted to move ↑ 0.3% or ↓ 0.7% post NFP
Bloomberg FX model: EURUSD has 75% of trading within 1.1557 – 1.1880 over 1-week period
Technical level: 1.1700

The world’s most-traded FX pair is on a tear, hitting levels not seen since September 2021!

At the time of writing, EURUSD has gained over 3% this month with prices knocking on key resistance at 1.17.

Why is the EURUSD rallying?

A broadly weaker dollar:

The greenback has been hit by growing bets on a more dovish-leaning Fed amid reports that Trump will announce Powell’s replacement sooner than expected.

Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also reduced appetite for safe-haven assets, enforcing more pressure on the dollar.

We have seen the dollar not only weaken against the euro but against every single G10 currency month-to-date.

With the dollar under pressure, could this mean more upside for the EURUSD ahead of another event-heavy week?

Monday, 30th June

CN50: China PMI’s
GER40: Germany CPI
JP225: Japan industrial production
UK100: UK GDP
US500: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra

Tuesday, 1st July

CN50: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
EUR: Germany Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone CPI, ECB President Lagarde speech
JPY: Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOJ Governor Ueda speech
GBP: UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, BOE Governor Bailey speech
USDInd: US ISM Manufacturing, S&P Global PMI, Fed Chair Powell speech

Wednesday, 2nd July

AUD: Australia retail sales, building approvals
CAD: Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
EUR: Eurozone unemployment
US400: US ADP employment
Tesla: Second-quarter vehicle sales figures

Thursday, 3rd July

AUD: Australia trade
CN50: China Caixin services PMI
EUR: Eurozone HCOB Services PMI, ECB meeting minutes
JPY: Japan S&P Global Services PMI
USDInd: US June nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims

Friday, 4th July

SG20: Singapore retail sales
EUR: Eurozone PPI, Germany factory orders
Senate vote for signing a Republican-backed tax and spending bill.
US markets closed: Independence Day holiday

Here are 4 key events that could rattle the EURUSD:

1) ECB’s annual forum in Sintra

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will kick off the ECB forum with a keynote speech on Monday, 30th June.

Lagarde will be under the spotlight again on Tuesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank heads discussing “macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. Should Lagarde or Powell offer any fresh clues about future monetary policy, this could result in heightened volatility on the EURUSD.

2) Eurozone June CPI + data dump

Inflation data from Europe on Tuesday, 1st July could influence expectations around when the ECB will cut interest rates.

Markets are forecasting:

CPI year-on-year (June 2024 vs. June 2025) is expected to rise 1.9%
Core CPI year-on-year to remain unchanged at 2.3%
CPI month-on-month (June 2025 vs May 2025) to rise 0.2% from 0.0%.

EURUSD is forecasted to move as much as 0.4% or decline 0.3% in a 6-hour window post release.

A softer inflation may fuel speculation around lower rates in Europe, dragging the EURUSD lower.
A hotter-than-expected inflation report could shave ECB cut bets, resulting in a stronger Euro.

Traders are currently pricing a 55% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September.

Note: Beyond the Eurozone CPI data, it will be wise to keep an eye on the German CPI report, Manufacturing PMI’s, Eurozone unemployment and PPI which may influence the euro.

3) US June nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

Here is what markets predict for the key US jobs report on Thursday 3rd July:

June headline NFP number: 120,000

If so, that would be lower than the 139k new jobs created in May.

June unemployment rate: 4.3%

This would represent a 0.1% increase from the 4.2% in May.

A weaker-than-expected US jobs report may weaken the dollar, pushing the EURUSD higher as a result.
Should the US jobs report print stronger than expected, the EURUSD may sink as the Dollar strengthens.

EURUSD is forecasted to move 0.30% up or 0.73% down in the 6 hours after this US NFP release

4) Technical forces

The EURUSD is firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with prices trading above the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index signals that prices are heavily overbought.

A solid daily close above 1.1700 may signal a move toward 1.1800 and 1.1880 – the upper limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Should 1.1700 prove to be a tough resistance, this could trigger a decline back toward 1.1620 and 1.1557 – the lower limit of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 75% chance that EURUSD will trade within the 1.1557 – 1.1880 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Forex and Currency News Opinions

26 Jun

Pound Hits Multi-Year High as Bank of England Signals Rate Cut Readiness

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair surged to 1.3704, reaching its highest level since January 2022.

This rally was driven by a weakening US dollar, growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and easing geopolitical tensions.

Market expectations for an imminent Fed rate reduction strengthened after Chair Jerome Powell suggested that weaker inflation or employment data could prompt faster action from the central bank.

In the UK, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden signalled that interest rate cuts are on the horizon. They highlighted signs of a cooling labour market, including slowing wage growth and rising economic inactivity. However, Bailey cautioned about reliability issues in recent employment data.

Ramsden, who voted for a rate cut, cited the labour market slowdown as a key factor. He also warned of the risk of inflation falling below the BoE’s 2% target.

Meanwhile, markets are closely watching the truce between Israel and Iran, which has reduced fears of further escalation and potential inflationary shocks.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, GBP/USD formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3622 before breaking higher. The pair has now breached the upper boundary of a broader consolidation range, suggesting potential for further gains. The next upside target is 1.3880, supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair completed an upward wave to 1.3723. A short-term pullback towards 1.3630 is possible before another potential rally towards 1.3810. This scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line is below 80 and descending towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound’s rally reflects dollar weakness and BoE rate cut expectations, while technical indicators suggest further upside potential after a possible brief correction.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

25 Jun

EUR/USD Extends Rally as Risk Sentiment Improves

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Wednesday, EUR/USD climbed to 1.1621, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains with little interruption. The upward momentum reflects easing geopolitical tensions, which in turn have reduced the demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

The US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains largely intact despite isolated incidents, while oil prices have retreated significantly from recent peaks. However, lingering uncertainties persist – reports suggest recent US missile strikes only partially damaged Iran’s critical nuclear facilities, merely delaying rather than halting its nuclear program.

Market attention remains fixed on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest remarks. Reaffirming his commitment to curbing inflation, Powell signalled that interest rates are likely to stay on hold until the impact of trade tariffs on prices becomes clearer. Nevertheless, markets still price in a 20% probability of a rate cut as early as July.

Traders now await Powell’s upcoming Senate testimony and the latest US new home sales data for further direction.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD breakout above 1.1540 propelled the pair towards 1.1640. Today, we anticipate consolidation below this level. A downside exit could trigger a retracement towards 1.1540, while an upward breakout may extend gains to 1.1670. Beyond this, we expect a potential downward wave targeting 1.1414, supported by the MACD indicator. The signal line, currently above zero and exiting the histogram zone, suggests a likely decline towards the baseline.

H1 Chart:

After finding support at 1.1518, the pair rallied to 1.1640, where a tight consolidation range is forming. A downward breakout appears probable – should 1.1580 give way, a decline towards 1.1518 may follow. This scenario is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line below 80 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD uptrend persists amid improving risk sentiment, though technical indicators suggest a potential pullback. Traders should monitor Powell’s testimony and US housing data for near-term catalysts.

Disclaimer

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24 Jun

USD/JPY Reverses Downwards: External Factors Reduce Support for the US Dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair is falling sharply, dropping to 145.49 on Tuesday as the yen recovers some of its losses after weeks of decline.

The reversal follows a broad weakening of the US dollar, triggered by former President Donald Trump’s remarks on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which he referred to as a “12-day war.”

Markets largely dismissed Iran’s retaliatory strike on a US base in Qatar – which caused no casualties – while Tehran’s decision not to close the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz helped ease concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Domestically, investors continue to assess the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy stance. At its June meeting, the central bank held the key rate at 0.5% but signalled readiness for further tightening, citing persistent core inflation driven by companies passing on higher wage costs to consumers.

Given the yen’s prolonged depreciation, a period of consolidation – if not a full recovery – now appears likely.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY broke above the 145.00 consolidation range, rallying to 148.00 before pulling back. We now see a corrective decline, with a potential retest of 145.00 (a technical pullback to the breakout level). Once this correction concludes, another upward wave toward 148.40 could develop, with a longer-term target at 149.00. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator: its signal line remains above zero, having exited the histogram zone, suggesting a decline, at a minimum, back to the zero line.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed an uptrend to 148.00 before forming a consolidation range near 146.50. A downside breakout could extend the decline toward 145.00, after which a new upward wave targeting 149.00 may emerge. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s rebound reflects both external dollar weakness and domestic policy shifts, with technicals suggesting near-term consolidation before potential renewed upside.

Disclaimer

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19 Jun

GBP/USD Under Pressure: The Pound Rapidly Loses Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair continues its decline, touching 1.3403 on Thursday, as the pound hovers near a four-week low.

Political uncertainty in the UK and heightened demand for safe-haven assets amid the Israel-Iran conflict have weighed heavily on the sterling.

Today, the Bank of England (BoE) holds its monetary policy meeting, and markets widely expect rates to be kept on hold. Focus will be on the BoE’s forward guidance, particularly amid rising oil prices.

Meanwhile, markets are still pricing in two rate cuts in 2025. Combined with soft UK macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, this has weighed on the pound’s yield and diminished its relative appeal to investors.

Over the past 24 hours, the broad-based strengthening of the US dollar has further pressured the GBP exchange rate.

Earlier, the pound reacted to inflation figures, which came in line with forecasts. Annual inflation eased to 3.4% in May (from 3.5% in April), while core inflation dipped to 3.5% (from 3.8%). However, the reading remains well above the BoE’s 2% target, indicating that progress is still too limited to prompt a change in the Bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory, targeting 1.3360
Once this level is reached, a correction towards 1.3496 may follow
After the correction, another decline towards 1.3240 could materialise
This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward

H1 Chart:

The pair is forming the third wave of decline, targeting 1.3373
A pullback towards 1.3494 is expected before a potential fifth wave lower to 1.3360
The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending down towards 20

Conclusion

The GBP/USD remains under downward pressure, with key levels to watch at 1.3360 and 1.3240. A short-term correction may precede further declines, supported by technical indicators.

Disclaimer

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18 Jun

The Yen Halts Its Decline, but Domestic Signals Remain Negative

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair stabilised at 145.11 following three consecutive days of gains.

The Japanese yen had previously faced downward pressure due to a combination of factors, including weak macroeconomic data. Japan’s exports declined for the first time in eight months, indicating that the impact of US tariffs is now being felt. Meanwhile, imports fell more sharply than anticipated, heightening concerns over weakening external demand.

Other indicators painted a similarly bleak picture. Machinery orders dropped significantly in April, while industrial sentiment deteriorated in June. These developments suggest that signs of softening domestic demand are increasingly apparent.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held a meeting the previous day, leaving interest rates unchanged and reaffirming its cautious approach to reducing balance sheet assets. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that the central bank is closely monitoring economic conditions and global trade dynamics, leaving open the possibility of future rate hikes.

Additional pressure on the yen came from the lack of progress at the G7 summit in Canada, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump failed to reach an agreement on tariff cooperation.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The market has completed an upward wave to the upper boundary of the consolidation range at 145.43. Having reached this target, a decline towards 144.00 is now anticipated. A break below this level could open the door for a further drop towards 142.20, with the potential to extend the downtrend to 140.50. Conversely, an upward move would raise the likelihood of a rally towards 146.98. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and has exited the histogram area. A downward correction with new lows on the indicator is likely to follow.

H1 Chart:

The market is forming a bearish wave structure targeting 144.00, which is likely to be reached today. Following this, a corrective rebound towards 144.80 may occur. Overall, price action continues to develop within a broad consolidation range at these levels. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line positioned below 20 and pointing sharply downward.

Conclusion

While the yen’s decline has paused, domestic economic signals remain unfavourable. With weak trade data, cautious BoJ policy, and stalled international negotiations, the currency faces ongoing headwinds. Technically, the USD/JPY pair shows potential for further downside, though a corrective rebound cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer

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17 Jun

EUR/USD rises as the US dollar struggles to hold ground

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair continues its gradual climb, reaching 1.1562 on Tuesday despite local support for the US dollar stemming from renewed geopolitical tensions.

Geopolitics and Fed expectations in focus

The greenback experienced a temporary surge in demand as tensions escalated in the Middle East, prompting a rise in safe-haven assets. This followed US President Donald Trump’s call for the complete evacuation of Tehran and renewed pressure on Iran to accept his nuclear deal proposal.

Meanwhile, market attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins today and concludes on Wednesday evening. While the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, investors are seeking fresh forward guidance, especially given the recent softening of expectations for future rate cuts.

Persistent inflation concerns, driven by elevated oil prices and lingering uncertainty in the trade sector, are further shaping sentiment.

Today’s key macroeconomic releases include US retail sales and industrial production figures for May, while in the eurozone, the focus is on the ZEW economic expectations index for June.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range at the top of the upward trend. A possible expansion towards 1.1645 cannot be excluded. Subsequently, a decline towards the lower boundary of the range at 1.1490 is anticipated. A break below 1.1490 would open the path for a new downward wave towards 1.1275, which is the first main target. The MACD indicator supports this outlook – its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone and is expected to descend back to the zero line, confirming a weakening upward impulse.

On the H1 chart, the market is consolidating around the 1.1570 level. The local growth target at 1.1614 has already been fulfilled, followed by a technical retest of 1.1542 from above. The next expected move is a growth link to 1.1645. A broad consolidation range around 1.1570 continues to take shape. The main scenario anticipates a decline towards 1.1456 once the growth structure is complete. This view is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above 50 and heading sharply towards 80, indicating room for further short-term upside before a reversal.

Conclusion

EUR/USD remains supported in the short term amid geopolitical uncertainty and softening Fed rate expectations, with key resistance at 1.1645 and support at 1.1490 and 1.1456. A sustained break below these levels could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.1275. For now, technical signals indicate a continuation of the consolidation phase, with one more upward impulse likely before a reversal sets in.

Disclaimer

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15 Jun

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

By InvestMacro

Open Interest Levels show where open contracts are in the markets.

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by British Pound & Canadian Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the British Pound (16,419 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (15,303 contracts), the EuroFX (10,261 contracts), the Brazilian Real (8,508 contracts), the Swiss Franc (4,798 contracts), New Zealand Dollar (2,439 contracts), the US Dollar Index (785 contracts) and also Bitcoin (303 contracts) showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Australian Dollar (-6,789 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-6,554 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-1,723 contracts) seeing lower bets on the week.

Euro Speculator Bets rise for 3rd Week to 9-Month High

Currency Data Highlights this week include the Euro and the British pound sterling seeing stronger speculator positioning that has pushed the overall net positions to multi-month highs.

Euro FX Positions rise to 40-week high
– Euro positions rose by over 10,000 contracts this week, marking the fourth increase in the last six weeks.
– Speculators’ Euro positions have risen for 13 out of the last 17 weeks, totaling a change of +157,450 contracts over that time-frame.
– The Euro positions have increased from negative contracts in mid-February to over 93,000 contracts this week, the highest level for Euro speculators since September 3, 2024, when the net position was over 100,000 contracts.

British Pound Sterling
– British Pound Sterling contracts jumped by over 16,000 positions this week.
– Speculator bets on the Pound Sterling have risen in 5 out of the last 8 weeks, totaling over +45,000 contracts in that period.
– The Pound Sterling speculator position is currently at its highest level since November with the current standing above the 50,000 contract level.

Canadian Dollar
– Canadian Dollar speculator bets increased by over 15,000 contracts this week.
– The overall standing for the Canadian Dollar, however, remains bearish at -93,140 contracts level.

Japanese Yen
– The Japanese Yen contracts fell by over 6,000 contracts this week as yen speculator bets have been cooling off.
– The Yen position has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks after reaching an all-time high in April above +179,000 contracts.

Swiss Franc
– Swiss Franc contracts rose by almost 5,000 contracts this week.
– Over the last 10 weeks, Swiss Franc positions have improved in 7 out of the last 10 weeks, reducing the overall bearish level by almost half (from approximately -42,000 to -21,000 contracts).

U.S. Dollar Index
– The U.S. Dollar index positions slightly improved this week and have now risen for five straight weeks (following declines in 8 out of previous 11 weeks)
– The current standing is currently still a small, bullish position of just +1,402 net contracts.

Market Price Changes this week:

Currency markets saw the euro and Swiss franc both rise by over 1%. The Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and the Canadian dollar each gained nearly 1%. The Brazilian real, Japanese yen, and British pound all increased by around 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar index, however, was the week’s biggest loser, dropping nearly 1%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (90 percent) and the Brazilian Real (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (64 percent), Mexican Peso (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Bitcoin (7 percent) and the US Dollar Index (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (9.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (8.0 percent)
EuroFX (64.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (60.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (56.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (49.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (90.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (92.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (48.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (46.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (39.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (26.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (31.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (39.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (37.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (61.6 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.5 percent)
Bitcoin (7.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.9 percent)

British Pound & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the British Pound (13 percent) and the EuroFX (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (6 percent), the US Dollar Index (4 percent) and the Mexican Peso (2 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Australian Dollar (-14 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (3.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (3.3 percent)
EuroFX (6.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (6.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (7.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (-9.5 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-7.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-1.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.6 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-18.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-14.2 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (0.3 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (1.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (11.9 percent)
Brazilian Real (-23.6 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-15.5 percent)
Bitcoin (-17.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-32.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,402 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 785 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 617 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.5	24.0	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.0	24.1	12.1
– Net Position:	1,402	-35	-1,367
– Gross Longs:	17,027	7,344	2,345
– Gross Shorts:	15,625	7,379	3,712
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.6	93.9	11.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.8	-3.2	-3.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 93,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 10,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,764 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.8	55.4	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	74.1	5.5
– Net Position:	93,025	-151,256	58,231
– Gross Longs:	208,754	449,157	102,489
– Gross Shorts:	115,729	600,413	44,258
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.2	29.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.7	5.5

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 51,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 16,419 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,215 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.9	28.4	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.8	56.7	12.7
– Net Position:	51,634	-60,562	8,928
– Gross Longs:	111,076	60,665	36,199
– Gross Shorts:	59,442	121,227	27,271
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.9	38.8	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.2	-12.8	6.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 144,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,554 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 151,149 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	34.0	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.2	77.6	7.6
– Net Position:	144,595	-169,077	24,482
– Gross Longs:	184,195	132,044	54,124
– Gross Shorts:	39,600	301,121	29,642
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	90.5	8.3	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	8.3	4.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,268 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,798 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,066 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.6	62.5	19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.1	39.7	17.7
– Net Position:	-21,268	19,842	1,426
– Gross Longs:	9,240	54,331	16,806
– Gross Shorts:	30,508	34,489	15,380
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.8	31.9	84.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.2	-8.8	10.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -93,143 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 15,303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -108,446 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.8	77.4	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-93,143	91,207	1,936
– Gross Longs:	19,651	223,285	27,489
– Gross Shorts:	112,794	132,078	25,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.2	52.3	49.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.6	6.7	28.8

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,944 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,155 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	68.5	11.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.9	40.0	9.2
– Net Position:	-69,944	63,770	6,174
– Gross Longs:	23,997	153,541	26,785
– Gross Shorts:	93,941	89,771	20,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	26.7	68.0	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	8.9	13.3

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -21,235 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 2,439 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,674 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.8	73.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	47.6	5.2
– Net Position:	-21,235	20,783	452
– Gross Longs:	9,312	58,294	4,562
– Gross Shorts:	30,547	37,511	4,110
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.9	57.5	59.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.3	-0.6	2.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 62,726 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,723 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,449 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.8	31.8	3.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.1	68.3	1.8
– Net Position:	62,726	-65,910	3,184
– Gross Longs:	99,017	57,439	6,351
– Gross Shorts:	36,291	123,349	3,167
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.7	40.3	40.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 39,301 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,793 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.5	29.9	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	75.0	1.0
– Net Position:	39,301	-42,872	3,571
– Gross Longs:	61,321	28,434	4,511
– Gross Shorts:	22,020	71,306	940
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.4 to 1	4.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.4	22.2	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.6	22.2	7.5

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -2,009 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 303 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,312 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.9	7.3	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	88.5	1.5	4.2
– Net Position:	-2,009	1,741	268
– Gross Longs:	24,781	2,198	1,529
– Gross Shorts:	26,790	457	1,261
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	95.4	51.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.0	18.4	-2.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

11 Jun

USD/JPY continues to climb: the yen loses its safe-haven appeal

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair remains in an uptrend, trading around 145.00 on Wednesday and nearing a two-week low for the yen. The Japanese currency is under continued pressure as demand for safe-haven assets fades, fuelled by growing optimism over US-China trade negotiations.

Trade optimism undermines yen demand

Positive signals from the US-China trade talks have eased market tensions. After two days of meetings, both delegations described the dialogue as productive, with discussions expected to continue today. Reports suggest that diplomats have reached a preliminary agreement on implementing the Geneva Consensus. Under the agreement, China could ease export restrictions on rare earth metals, while the US might loosen controls on advanced technology sales to China.

This improving external backdrop has diminished the appeal of the yen as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the continued strength of the dollar against it.

Domestically, Japan’s producer price inflation rose 3.2% y/y in May, marking the slowest growth in eight months. This suggests easing cost pressures in production, which could reduce the urgency for aggressive monetary tightening.

Still, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed in parliament on Tuesday that the central bank remains prepared to implement a new rate hike, provided there is confidence in the sustainability of core inflation around the 2% target.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY is moving upwards from support at 144.00, targeting 145.50, which is expected to be reached today. After hitting this level, a pullback to 144.00 is anticipated. Should the pair break below 144.00, the next move may extend to 142.20, with the possibility of continuing further to 140.50. A breakout above 145.50 would open the door to 146.25. The MACD indicator supports the bullish view, with its signal line above zero and pointing sharply upwards within the histogram zone.

On the H1 chart, the pair is building an upward wave structure towards 145.50, which is likely to be fulfilled today. A corrective move to 144.00 is expected to follow. The pair remains in a broad consolidation range around these levels. The Stochastic oscillator also confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and heading towards 80, indicating continued upward momentum in the short term.

Conclusion

USD/JPY continues to rise as risk appetite grows, and trade-related optimism diminishes the appeal of the yen. While positive domestic data and a willing BoJ support the yen longer term, the near-term technical setup remains bullish. Key resistance lies at 145.50 and 146.25, while a potential pullback could find support at 144.00, with deeper levels at 142.20 and 140.50 if the trend reverses.

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