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Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

08 Aug

EUR/USD Rises as the Dollar Struggles Under Tariff Pressures and Fed Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Friday, climbing to 1.1657, buoyed by expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and growing concerns over the economic impact of new US tariffs.

Recent data revealed that jobless claims exceeded forecasts this week, further signalling a softening labour market following last week’s lacklustre employment report.

On the political front, attention remains fixed on potential shifts within the Fed. US President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Meanwhile, reports suggest Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate for Fed Chair. These developments have reinforced market expectations of an imminent rate cut as early as September.

Adding to the dollar’s woes, new US retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, came into effect at midnight on Thursday. This has stoked fears of economic headwinds, further dampening sentiment towards the greenback.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD saw a corrective move to 1.1698, followed by consolidation near the top of this correction. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave towards 1.1520, with potential for further declines to 1.1343. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario: its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone, suggesting a pullback towards lower levels.

H1 Chart:

The pair formed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679. The current consolidation phase appears set for a downward breakout, potentially initiating a fifth wave of decline towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) may follow before another drop to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under upward pressure amid speculation about the Fed and concerns over tariffs, but technical indicators suggest a near-term bearish correction is likely.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Aug

Pound Under Pressure Ahead of Bank of England Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3355 on Thursday as markets braced for today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Traders are closely watching two key factors: the voting split among Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members and any signals regarding future rate moves.

The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%. However, there is speculation that some members, such as Swati Dingra or Alan Taylor, could push for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction, as seen in May. Should this occur, particularly if accompanied by a shift away from the BoE’s usual cautious tone, the pound could come under significant selling pressure.

Currently, markets have largely priced in a quarter-point cut. Yet, uncertainty remains around the future path of interest rates. While UK inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, well above the 2% target, the economy is weakening, and the labour market is showing signs of strain.

The baseline scenario suggests the BoE will maintain a gradual, data-dependent approach, with potential quarterly cuts. However, any deviation, such as a more aggressive voting split or dovish guidance, could significantly shift market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.3366 in a technical correction. A fifth downward wave towards 1.2942 is likely, potentially followed by a corrective rebound to 1.3366. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line hovering near zero, signalling that downside momentum may soon resume.

H1 Chart:

A corrective wave is forming following the recent decline. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.3273 –a break above this range could see a push towards 1.3377. However, upon reaching this area, a fresh decline towards 1.3160 is anticipated. A breakdown below this would open the path to 1.2942. This bearish scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line below 80 and trending sharply down towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains vulnerable ahead of the BoE’s decision, with risks skewed towards further weakness if the central bank adopts a more dovish stance. Technically, the setup points to a resumption of the downtrend, with key levels at 1.3160 and 1.2942 in focus.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

05 Aug

EUR/USD Pressured by External Factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged lower on Tuesday, dipping to 1.1556 amid subdued trading activity. Market participants are cautiously assessing the latest trade signals and recalibrating their expectations for monetary policy.

Trade tensions resurfaced as US President Donald Trump threatened India with steep tariff hikes over its continued purchases of Russian oil. Meanwhile, the European Union postponed retaliatory tariffs against the US by six months, with both sides pledging further negotiations.

The US dollar faced downward pressure last week following the release of a disappointing US employment report. July’s figures fell short of forecasts, reinforcing market bets on a Fed rate cut in September. Investors are now pricing in over 60 basis points’ worth of easing by year-end.

Political uncertainty also weighed on sentiment. The resignation of a Federal Reserve Board member and the dismissal of a key statistical agency head under Trump’s administration have fuelled concerns over stability in the US economic leadership.

Market focus now shifts to June’s foreign trade data and the latest ISM PMI report, which could offer fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD corrected to 1.1590 before entering consolidation below this level. A breakout towards 1.1615 remains possible, but the primary expectation is a resumption of the downtrend, targeting 1.1348 as the next key support. This bearish view is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line firmly below zero and pointing downward.

H1 Chart:

The pair has formed a consolidation range around 1.1555, with the minimum correction target already met. A downside breakout is anticipated, initiating the fifth wave of decline towards 1.1348. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further losses, driven by a combination of weakening technical structure and external macroeconomic pressures. Traders should monitor US economic data for signals on near-term direction, as the broader downtrend remains intact.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Aug

Yen Weakens Amid Fed Rate Expectations and Bank of Japan Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 147.67 on Monday as the Japanese yen underwent a correction following Friday’s volatile trading session, with investors closely monitoring macroeconomic developments.

Market focus remains on shifting US Federal Reserve policy expectations after the release of softer labour market data. Although Friday’s report bolstered predictions of a rate cut, Fed officials have maintained a cautious tone, citing persistent inflation risks. Proposed large-scale tariffs from US President Donald Trump have further amplified these concerns.

Against this backdrop, the US dollar has partially regained strength, exerting downward pressure on the yen.

Investors are now awaiting the release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting minutes, hoping for clues on the timing of a potential rate hike. Last week, the Japanese central bank left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation forecast and highlighted growing uncertainty due to global trade risks.

Overall, the outlook for the JPY remains subdued. The BoJ has ample room to delay rate hikes, justifying its stance with ongoing caution.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed an upward wave to 150.90 before entering a correction phase. A further decline towards 146.52 is anticipated today. Once this level is reached, the pair may initiate a new growth wave, potentially targeting 151.00, with a longer-term prospect of extending the trend to 153.10. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is trending sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY is forming a corrective structure towards 146.52. A temporary rebound to 148.70 (testing from below) is expected today, followed by a possible resumption of the correction to 146.52. Once this correction concludes, a fresh upward wave towards 151.00 could materialise. The Stochastic oscillator validates this outlook, with its signal line positioned above 50 and pointing upwards.

Conclusion

The yen remains under pressure amid shifting Fed expectations and cautious BoJ signals. Technically, USD/JPY is poised for further correction before potentially resuming its uptrend.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

01 Aug

Week Ahead: GBPUSD under pressure with fresh losses ahead?

By ForexTime

(Note: This report was published before the US NFP report on Friday afternoon.)

GBPUSD ↓ 3.8% in July – worst month in 2025
BoE expected to cut rates by 25bp on Thursday
BoE meeting forecast to move GBPUSD ↑ 0.5% & ↓ 0.4%
US economic data could trigger additional volatility
Bloomberg FX model: GBPUSD has 74% of trading within 1.2990 – 1.3308 over 1-week period

Even as the clock ticks down to the key US jobs report this afternoon (Friday 1st August), investors are bracing for more action in the week ahead.

Trump has injected a fresh dose of uncertainty into markets after signing an executive order reimposing reciprocal tariffs of 10% to 41% on dozens of countries.

Considering how these come into effect from August 7th, this could mean more volatility for a week already packed with key data and corporate earnings:

Sunday, 3rd August

OIL: OPEC+ meeting on production levels

Monday, 4th August

US500: US factory orders, durable goods

Tuesday, 5th August

CN50: China S&P Global services PMI
EU50: Eurozone PPI, HCOB services PMI
JP225: Japan BOJ meeting minutes
US500: US trade, ISM services, S&P Global services PMI
UK00: BP earnings

Wednesday, 6th August

EUR: Eurozone retail sales
GER40: Germany factory orders
TWN: Taiwan CPI
US30: Disney earnings

Thursday, 7th August

AUD: Australia trade
CN50: China trade, foreign reserves
GER40: Germany industrial production
GBP: BoE rate decision
USDInd: US initial jobless claims, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic speech
Trump’s updated tariffs come into effect

Friday, 8th August

CAD: Canada unemployment
JP225: Japan household spending, trade, current account
TWN: Taiwan trade

Our focus lands on the GBPUSD which ended July almost 4% lower – its worst trading month in 2025.

A strengthening dollar has hammered the major currency pair, with prices approaching levels not seen since mid-May.

(Note: This chart was published before the US NFP report on Friday afternoon.)

With bears in a position of power, further downside could be expected with the right fundamental catalyst.

Here are 3 factors to watch out for:

1) BoE rate decision

The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to cut interest rates again at its August meeting to 4% from 4.25%.

However, the central bank may adopt a cautious stance on future rate cuts given how inflation surprised to the upside in June. Still, concerns over the labour market may encourage policymakers to lower rates deeper into the year.

Note: The latest UK CPI report increased to 3.6% in June, up from 3.4% in May.

Traders are currently pricing in a 95% probability that the BoE cuts rates in August with the odds of another rate cut by November at 63%.

The GBPUSD may extend losses if the BoE cuts interest rates and signals lower rates in the second half of 2025.
Should BoE governor Bailey express caution over future cuts, this may support the GBPUSD.

GBPUSD is forecasted to move 0.5% up or down 0.4% in a 6-hour window after the BoE rate decision.

2) US data

More economic data from the world’s largest economy may impact bets on a Fed cut and the US dollar. Recently, confidence toward the US economy was boosted by the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures. More encouraging data could lift sentiment, cool Fed cut bets, and support the USD.

On Tuesday, the latest US ISM services and PMI’s will be published, followed by the initial jobless claims on Thursday.

A strong set of figures may boost the dollar, dragging the GBPUSD lower as a result.
Weaker-than-expected data may hit the dollar, pushing the GBPUSD higher as a result.

3) Technical forces

GBPUSD is under intense pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50 and 100-day SMA’s. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that prices are heavily oversold.

A solid weekly close under 1.3200 may encourage a decline toward 1.3070 and the 200-day SMA at 1.2990, which is also the lower bound of the Bloomberg FX model.
Should prices push back above 1.3200, this could trigger a move toward 1.3285 and 1.3308 – the upper bound of the Bloomberg FX model.

Bloomberg’s FX model forecasts a 74% chance that GBPUSD will trade within the 1.2990 – 1.3308 range, using current levels as a base, over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

31 Jul

GBP/USD Hits Lows: Weak UK Data and a Strong Dollar Weigh on the Pound

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair dropped to 1.3252, its lowest level since 11 May 2025, as a resurgent US dollar and disappointing UK economic data weighed on the pound.

Market sentiment has shifted from concerns about inflation to fears of an economic slowdown, while optimism surrounding new trade agreements has bolstered the dollar.

Although warmer weather boosted food sales, the broader economic outlook remains fragile after worse-than-expected PMI figures. This has reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as August, with another potential reduction before year-end to stimulate growth.

Meanwhile, the dollar gained strength following the announcement of a US-EU trade deal, which imposes 15% tariffs on most European exports, including cars. The agreement has averted a further escalation in trade tensions, providing additional support for the greenback.

However, not all European leaders view the deal as favourable. Many argue that the terms disproportionately disadvantage the EU. While the UK maintains its separate agreements, the broader economic ripple effects are still being felt, given the interconnected nature of global markets.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its downward trajectory towards 1.3152, with a consolidation range currently forming around 1.3268. A downside breakout from this range could see the pair extend losses towards 1.3152, followed by a potential corrective rebound to 1.3370. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and points sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the hourly chart, the pair declined to 1.3225 before correcting to 1.3270. Further downside movement towards 1.3152 is anticipated today, with the Stochastic oscillator confirming this outlook: its signal line has crossed below 80 and is trending downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains under pressure amid a stronger dollar and a lacklustre UK economic performance. With rate cut expectations mounting and global trade dynamics shifting, further volatility in GBP/USD is likely. Traders will be watching key technical levels for confirmation of the next directional move.

Disclaimer

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30 Jul

USD/JPY in Correction as Markets Await Signals from Fed and BoJ

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair fell to 147.92 on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen recovering some of its early-week losses as the US dollar softened ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold, market focus remains squarely on whether policymakers will signal a potential rate cut in September.

Simultaneously, investors are assessing the outcome of this week’s US–China trade talks in Stockholm, which concluded on Tuesday without an extension of the current trade truce.

Domestically, attention turns to the upcoming Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision. The central bank is forecast to maintain its current interest rate as it evaluates the economic impact of US tariffs. The BoJ’s quarterly outlook report may also see an upward revision to its inflation forecasts.

Political uncertainty adds another layer of complexity, with growing pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to resign. However, the Prime Minister has firmly denied any intention to step down.

Notably, despite broader US dollar strength across markets, the USD/JPY pair has not fully reflected this trend due to counterbalancing factors.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues to consolidate around 147.90, having extended its range upwards to 148.77. Following a retest of 147.90 from above, the next likely move is a push higher towards 149.11, with a potential continuation towards 150.30 if bullish momentum holds. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero and points firmly upwards.

H1 Chart:

Switching to the H1 chart, the pair is forming a consolidation range around 147.90. A breakout to the upside could see a move towards 149.11, followed by a retracement to 148.44. Conversely, a downside break may trigger a decline towards 145.90. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this outlook, as its signal line sits above 20 and is trending upwards.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY pair remains in a corrective phase, with near-term direction hinging on policy signals from the Fed and BoJ. While technical indicators currently support a bullish bias, traders should remain alert to the possibility of breakout moves as confirmation.

Disclaimer

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29 Jul

EUR/USD Under Seller Control: The Deal’s Consequences Could Be Severe

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair tumbled to 1.1579 by Tuesday, marking its sharpest intraday decline since 6 November last year.

The euro’s plunge followed the announcement of a new trade agreement between the US and the European Union, which imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods – a move set to significantly benefit the American economy.

European leaders reacted fiercely. France condemned the deal as one-sided, while German Chancellor Merz warned of serious risks to domestic industry. In response, Donald Trump reiterated that countries unwilling to negotiate bilateral agreements could face tariffs of 15–20%, up from the 10% rate in April.

Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which concludes on Wednesday evening. While no rate change is expected, traders will scrutinise signals of a potential September cut, especially amid mounting White House pressure and trade-related uncertainties.

Key US economic data due this week – including the Core PCE Price Index and Nonfarm Payrolls report – will offer further clues on inflation and the Fed’s policy trajectory.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, typically a reversal formation. The price has now broken below the 1.1590 support, approaching the pattern’s lower boundary. A confirmed breakdown could lead to a decline towards 1.1490, with 1.1200 as a potential medium-term target.

The MACD indicator reinforces this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downward, suggesting sustained selling pressure.

H1 Chart:

On the hourly chart, the pair had been range-bound near 1.1645 before breaking lower, extending its downward move towards 1.1523. A pullback to retest 1.1645 (now as resistance) remains possible before any further downside.

Beyond that, the bearish trend is likely to resume, with 1.1490 acting as the next key support. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this scenario, as its signal line is below 50 and is trending downward towards 20, indicating strengthening bearish momentum.

Conclusion

Sellers remain firmly in control, with fundamental and technical factors both favouring further downside. A break below 1.1590 could accelerate losses, while key US data and Fed rhetoric this week may dictate near-term volatility.

Disclaimer

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27 Jul

Currency Speculators cut their British Pound Bets to 22-Week Low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Bets led by Mexican Peso, Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

British Pound Speculator Bets fall to 22-Week Low

Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.

The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.

Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.

Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.

Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.

The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,451 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 214 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,665 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.4	37.0	8.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	57.0	25.9	9.7
– Net Position:	-3,451	3,988	-537
– Gross Longs:	16,925	13,234	2,946
– Gross Shorts:	20,376	9,246	3,483
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.7	94.4	23.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.7	8.2	11.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 125,515 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 128,221 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.4	55.6	11.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.6	76.7	5.2
– Net Position:	125,515	-177,713	52,198
– Gross Longs:	248,380	469,100	96,216
– Gross Shorts:	122,865	646,813	44,018
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.6	20.7	84.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.4	-9.0	-12.7

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 570 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -28,621 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,191 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	34.8	16.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.7	37.7	13.8
– Net Position:	570	-5,739	5,169
– Gross Longs:	93,760	67,928	32,179
– Gross Shorts:	93,190	73,667	27,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.7	61.5	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	22.7	-7.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 106,645 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 103,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.5	32.4	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	69.9	10.5
– Net Position:	106,645	-117,360	10,715
– Gross Longs:	164,411	101,532	43,676
– Gross Shorts:	57,766	218,892	32,961
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.0	21.3	68.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.4	13.0	-31.1

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -26,065 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,428 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,637 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	69.0	20.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	34.0	20.7
– Net Position:	-26,065	26,431	-366
– Gross Longs:	8,087	52,184	15,305
– Gross Shorts:	34,152	25,753	15,671
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.1	42.6	77.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.7	10.7	-7.6

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -70,343 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,751 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.5	70.1	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.5	34.5	12.4
– Net Position:	-70,343	71,510	-1,167
– Gross Longs:	23,086	140,760	23,647
– Gross Shorts:	93,429	69,250	24,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.4	43.9	40.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-8.3	-8.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -81,255 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -74,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.5	65.1	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.9	17.2	12.0
– Net Position:	-81,255	77,341	3,914
– Gross Longs:	25,066	105,142	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	106,321	27,801	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.6	76.0	59.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.0	8.1	-6.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -3,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,797 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.1	51.4	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.3	43.9	10.0
– Net Position:	-3,162	3,291	-129
– Gross Longs:	11,955	22,656	4,276
– Gross Shorts:	15,117	19,365	4,405
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.8	37.8	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.9	-19.7	-7.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 56,064 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,942 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,122 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	37.6	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.0	72.6	1.7
– Net Position:	56,064	-60,340	4,276
– Gross Longs:	99,081	64,766	7,251
– Gross Shorts:	43,017	125,106	2,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.3	43.2	46.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	2.9	6.1

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 25,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 1,685 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,172 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	62.3	31.6	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.6	63.0	1.1
– Net Position:	25,857	-29,388	3,531
– Gross Longs:	58,202	29,484	4,575
– Gross Shorts:	32,345	58,872	1,044
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	33.0	40.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	10.8	-0.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,852 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 634 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.4	5.4	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	85.4	1.3	3.6
– Net Position:	-1,852	1,247	605
– Gross Longs:	24,447	1,659	1,710
– Gross Shorts:	26,299	412	1,105
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.4	84.4	68.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.3	-11.0	17.5

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