InvestMacro

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0618
• Prev Close: 1.0539
• % chg. over the last day: -0.75%

An important non-farm payroll report will be published in the US today. This figure is taken into account by the US Federal Reserve for monetary policy regulation. Analysts expect employment to rise by 390,000 (previously 421,000) and the unemployment rate to drop to 3.5%. If the data is worse than expected, the dollar index may fall sharply again, and vice versa. In any case, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar will rise sharply.

• Support levels: 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0580, 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. The price has dropped below the moving average again, and the MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0580, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2625
• Prev Close: 1.2355
• % chg. over the last day: -2.18%

The Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 0.25% to 1%. The vote showed that six bank representatives voted for a 0.25% rate hike, while three members insisted on 0.5%. The Monetary Policy Report indicates that global inflationary pressures have sharply risen since Russia invaded Ukraine. This has led to a significant deterioration in global and UK growth prospects. According to the May report’s forecast, inflation is expected to continue to rise, averaging just over 9% in the second quarter of 2022 and averaging just over 10% at its peak in the fourth quarter of 2022. The outlook has been extremely negative, reflected in the British pound’s price.

• Support levels: 1.2293, 1.2127
• Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The MACD indicator is negative again, and selling pressure remains high. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2450 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2293, but only with short targets and after confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2695 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 129.04
• Prev Close: 130.18
• % chg. over the last day: +0.88%

The fundamental picture of the USD/JPY currency pair remains unchanged. The monetary policy of the US and Japan central banks is still at different poles, which will contribute to the growth of USD/JPY quotes in the mid-term perspective. Therefore, any pullback should be used as an opportunity to buy. But inflation in Japan is rising and approaching the 2% target. In Tokyo, consumer price inflation has reached 1.9% year on year. Once the country’s inflation rate reaches 2%, the Bank of Japan will abandon its ultra-soft monetary policy.

• Support levels: 129.42, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the buying pressure has increased. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.42, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 130.80 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.55, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2742
• Prev Close: 1.2834
• % chg. over the last day: +0.72%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index jumped sharply yesterday, while oil prices also rose. On Thursday, a US Senate committee passed a bill that could bring the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners to lawsuits for conspiring to raise crude oil prices. Analysts believe that this situation would temporarily boost oil prices.

• Support levels: 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The price is forming a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator is positive again, and the buyer’s pressure has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2774, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2908, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2693, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

• – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0519
• Prev Close: 1.0620
• % chg. over the last day: +0.96%

As policymakers tried to quell record inflation, the Fed’s 50 basis point hike was the largest since 2000. But Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference that Fed members are not considering an active 75 basis point hike in the future. The euro jumped almost 1% on this news.

• Support levels: 1.0564, 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. But there are first signs of bullish pressure. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0633, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0564, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2496
• Prev Close: 1.2635
• % chg. over the last day: +1.11%

Today, the Bank of England is almost 100% likely to raise the key rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 1%, the highest rate level in 13 years and a threshold at which active quantitative tightening can begin. It is important to look closely at changes in gross domestic product forecasts and the consumer price index. GDP is likely to fall sharply in 2022, and inflation is expected to be revised upward. The pound may rise again if forecasts are more optimistic.

• Support levels: 1.2530, 1.2438
• Resistance levels: 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. Yesterday, the British pound jumped amid the Fed news but reached the resistance level. The MACD indicator became positive, but the buying pressure decreased. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2602 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2530, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2792 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Inflation Report (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 130.10
• Prev Close: 129.04
• % chg. over the last day: -0.82%

The Japanese market is closed today. Therefore, currency pairs with the yen are now completely dependent on the movement of major currencies. Yesterday, the dollar index fell sharply after the Fed meeting, which led to a decline in the USD/JPY. However, it should be noted that the monetary policy of the US and Japanese central banks is still at different poles, which will contribute to the USD/JPY quotes growth in the mid-term perspective.

• Support levels: 128.89, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 129.78, 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The MACD indicator has become negative. The price has corrected to the nearest support levels. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 128.89 or 128.55, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 129.78 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 127.29, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2842
• Prev Close: 1.2736
• % chg. over the last day: -0.83%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index fell sharply after the Fed meeting yesterday, while oil prices jumped more than 5%, as at today’s OPEC+ meeting, producer countries will not increase oil production. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened sharply yesterday.

• Support levels: 1.2693, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.2802, 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the selling pressure has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2693 or 1.2644, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2802, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2644, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

• – OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0500
• Prev Close: 1.0519
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18%

The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and plants, jumped by 5.5% MoM in Europe. As a rule, the growth of this index is further accompanied by rising prices for consumer goods. Due to strong inflationary pressures, the ECB sees a possible interest rate hike as early as July. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone decreased from 6.9% to 6.8%.

• Support levels: 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence is increasing. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0633, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2490
• Prev Close: 1.2494
• % chg. over the last day: +0.03%

There is an almost 100% chance that the Bank of England will raise the key rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) to 1% on Thursday, the highest rate level in 13 years and the threshold at which active quantitative tightening can begin. It is important to look closely at changes in gross domestic product forecasts and the consumer price index. GDP is likely to fall sharply in 2022, and inflation is expected to be revised upward. If the forecasts are much worse, the pound could fall even more.

• Support levels: 1.2486, 1.2438
• Resistance levels: 1.2530, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2530 intraday or 1.2695, but with confirmation. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2486, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2792 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

• – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 130.10
• Prev Close: 130.13
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02%

The Japanese market will be closed today and tomorrow. Therefore, currency pairs with the yen will be completely dependent on the movement of major currencies. The fundamental picture for the JPY remains the same. The Bank of Japan pursues an ultra-soft monetary policy, negatively affecting the national yen rate. Today, major currencies will depend on the dollar index as the Fed is expected to hold an important meeting and press conference, where Jerome Powell will speak about the future economic outlook. The dollar index could see a new impulse growth if the future outlook is unfavorable. If the outlook is favorable, the dollar index could decline as the negative scenario already in prices.

• Support levels: 129.10, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the buyers’ pressure has decreased. Volatility has reduced, while the price is trading in a narrow flat. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but only after a pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.10 or 128.55, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 130.80 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 127.29, the uptrend will likely be broken.

• – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2879
• Prev Close: 1.2839
• % chg. over the last day: -0.31%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities such as oil. The dollar index traded without a single dynamic yesterday. At the same time, oil prices decreased by 2% as demand worries over a prolonged quarantine in China due to COVID-19 outweighed the prospect of an EU embargo on Russian oil. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading without significant changes.

• Support levels: 1.2824, 1.2750, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2750, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2908, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2644, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0560
• Prev Close: 1.0507
• % chg. over the last day: -0.50%

In April, the US Manufacturing PMI index slowed to its lowest level since September 2020 due to further supply chain problems following recent restrictions in China. The US economy is slowly slipping into recession, and the Fed has not even begun to raise interest rates aggressively yet.

• Support levels: 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0584, 1.0633, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence is increasing. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0633, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0770 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2571
• Prev Close: 1.2491
• % chg. over the last day: -0.64%

The UK retail sales index showed a significant decline last week. Retailers also expect sales to decline in May. Economic surveys point to concerns about the outlook for consumer spending and the economy as a whole. This Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting on monetary policy, which is likely to decide on a further increase in interest rates by 0.25%.

• Support levels: 1.2486, 1.2438
• Resistance levels: 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price reached the support level and is trading flat now. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2695 but confirmed. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2486, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2792 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 129.73
• Prev Close: 130.18
• % chg. over the last day: +0.34%

Japan has a long weekend until Friday. Thus, currency pairs with the yen will be fully dependent on the movement of major currencies. The fundamental picture for JPY remains the same. The Bank of Japan pursues an ultra-soft monetary policy that negatively affects the national yen rate.

• Support levels: 129.10, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 130.80

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the buyers’ pressure has decreased. Volatility decreased on the eve of the holidays. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend, but only after a pullback, as the price has strongly deviated from the average values. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.10 or 128.55, but with additional confirmation. A resistance level of 130.80 may be considered for sell deals, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 127.29, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2838
• Prev Close: 1.2877
• % chg. over the last day: +0.30%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and depends not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dollar index and on the prices of energy commodities, such as oil. The fundamental picture for the Canadian dollar is very vague. On the one hand, the Bank of Canada will also raise interest rates, which is positive for the Canadian dollar. Rising oil prices are also positive for the Canadian dollar. On the other hand, tighter monetary policy from the Fed contributes to the growth of the dollar index. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair has no clear trend and trades in wide volatile corridors.

• Support levels: 1.2824, 1.2750, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.2908

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but the divergence has increased. Trade is worth it only with short targets. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2750, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2908, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2644, the downtrend will likely be resumed.