InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 1860.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 1820.50 and continue the descending tendency without any pullbacks.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.6370. After that, the asset may rebound from the resistance level and resume moving downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 0.6235 without any corrections.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the support level. At the moment, the pair is reversing and may form a new correctional impulse. In this case, the upside target correctional may be at 1.2410. After testing the resistance area, the market may rebound from it and resume trading downwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall to reach 1.2215 without any pullbacks.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is rebounding from the resistance level. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may re-test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.2385 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1965 Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2545. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2635. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the bearish channel’s downside border and fix below 1.2145.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is correcting within the bullish channel. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 130.05 and then resume moving upwards to reach 132.65. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 128.45. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 127.55.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is rebounding from the bearish channel’s downside border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1865.00 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1775.00. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1905.00. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1945.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.0553
• Prev Close: 1.0529
• % chg. over the last day: -0.23%

Today, investors and traders will closely monitor the April US Consumer Price Index for any signs that inflation may begin to cool off. Analysts expect annual inflation to fall to 8.1% (current level – 8.5%). Investors’ attention will also be focused on the inflation level in Germany, where analysts expect to see prices rise by 0.8%.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0535, 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0588, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. The price forms a wide price corridor, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and volatility is reduced in anticipation of inflation data. Such narrowing of liquidity usually leads to sharp impulse movements. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0646, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0453, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0723 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.11:

• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 02:00 (GMT+3);
• – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2329
• Prev Close: 1.2315
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The British pound has lost ground against the euro, where the ECB has not yet raised interest rates. This means that the Bank of England is losing control, as the Bank of England has already raised interest rates three times, while the ECB will raise rates only in the second half of the year. Bank of England spokesman Michael Saunders said yesterday that UK inflation is expected to peak at 9% annually. Analysts believe that the Bank of England failed in its forecasting and completely misinterpreted the causes of high inflation.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2276, 1.2127
• Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price forms a wide price corridor, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and trading activity has decreased. Such liquidity narrowing, as a rule, leads to sharp impulse movements. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2450 or 1.2519 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2127 if the price continues to decrease after the inflation data.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2695 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 130.24
• Prev Close: 130.43
• % chg. over the last day: +0.15%

The Bank of Japan’s prolonged stimulus program has been increasingly criticized for fueling an unwanted yen drop. Investors are paying attention to the widening gap between ultra-low interest rates in Japan and rising rates in other major economies. The Bank of Japan’s ultra-soft policy allows the government to support huge spending despite Japan’s growing national debt. But the country’s inflation rate is already approaching the 2% target, so analysts believe that the soft monetary policy is close to ending.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 129.42, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The price is forming a wide price corridor, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. With a high probability, the situation will not change before the inflation data. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.42. A resistance level of 130.99 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.55, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3012
• Prev Close: 1.3028
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Oil prices continue to fall as tighter quarantine measures in Shanghai continue to raise demand concerns. This is negatively affecting the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2992, 1.2838, 1.2908, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.3044

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The price has reached the daily resistance level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence of higher time frames is increasing. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2992, but only with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3044, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2693, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

News feed for 2022.05.11:

• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

USDJPY goes sideways

The US dollar retreated as traders took profit ahead of inflation data. The pair has been struggling to hold onto its new high above 131.20. A break below the immediate support at 130.20 reveals the bulls’ caution in chasing after bids. Profit-taking may drive the price action lower and trigger a much-needed consolidation phase. 128.70 at the base of a previous bullish breakout coincides with the 20-day moving average, making it an area of interest. 127.00 on the 30-day moving average is a critical floor for the current uptrend.

EURCHF to reach 3-month high

The euro strengthens as the German Bundesbank chief calls for rate moves in July. The rally accelerated after it broke above the daily resistance at 1.0450. A combination of short-covering and momentum buying has propelled the euro above the psychological level of 1.0500. This February’s highs near 1.0600 are the next target. As the RSI repeatedly ventures into the overbought area, a pullback could alleviate the pressure from overextension. 1.0430 is a fresh support where trend followers may see an opportunity to jump in.

SPX 500 sees limited bounce

The S&P 500 fell as concerns over an economic slowdown grew. Sentiment is having a hard time to stabilise after the index fell below its 12-month low (4050). The RSI’s oversold condition may briefly help lift offers as intraday traders unwind their positions. However, it would be too soon to call a bottom due to a lack of bids. Most buyers are wary of catching a falling knife and would stay on the sidelines for now. A rebound is likely to meet stiff selling pressure around 4180. 3880 could be the next stop when volatility makes its return.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.0539
• Prev Close: 1.0558
• % chg. over the last day: +0.18%

Federal Reserve official Bostic said yesterday that he sees 2 to 3 rate hikes of 50 basis points in the next meetings of the Committee. Meanwhile, analysts have already estimated the probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting on June 14-15 at 79% (yesterday it was 75%). Such sentiments are actively pushing the dollar index up. Today the European Research Institute ZEW will publish an economic sentiment index in Germany and the Eurozone. Analysts expect a further decline in business activity in the region.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0535, 1.0453
• Resistance levels: 1.0588, 1.0646, 1.0723, 1.0766, 1.0799, 1.0869, 1.0955

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bearish. The price forms a wide corridor, the MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyers’ pressure increases. Under such market conditions, traders can look for sell deals from the resistance level of 1.0646, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades can be considered on intraday timeframes from the support level of 1.0535, but only with short targets and confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0723 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.05.10:

• – German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2345
• Prev Close: 1.2329
• % chg. over the last day: -0.13%

The Bank of England should follow the Fed’s example and aggressively raise interest rates. Otherwise, the UK will face stagflation (slowing economic growth and declining GDP on the back of rising consumer prices). Analysts believe that if the Bank of England does not act decisively now, the UK will face a significant economic decline in the second half of the year. At the same time, economic surveys and studies already show that ordinary consumers have begun to save significantly due to a sharp jump in prices for almost all types of goods and services.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2336, 1.2127
• Resistance levels: 1.2450, 1.2519, 1.2602, 1.2695, 1.2792, 1.2981, 1.3010, 1.3114

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD currency pair trend is still bearish. The price forms a wide corridor, the MACD indicator has become positive, and the buyer’s pressure increases. Under such market conditions, sell trades should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2450 intraday. For buy deals, traders may consider the level of 1.2336, but only with short targets and after confirmation in the form of buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2695 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 130.50
• Prev Close: 130.32
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

In Japan, there are signs of price pressures on households. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, spending increased by 4.1% in March. It’s the first increase in three months. At the same time, rising living costs are putting the brakes on business activity. These are signs of rising inflation. The Bank of Japan, through its ultra-soft monetary policy, has planned to raise the inflation rate to the 2% target level, and it is likely to do so soon. However, as long as there is no talk of stopping the stimulative monetary policy, the Japanese yen will continue to weaken.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 129.42, 128.55, 127.29, 126.91, 126.00, 125.57
• Resistance levels: 130.58, 130.99

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is still bullish. The price forms a wide corridor, the MACD indicator has become negative, and sellers’ pressure increases. Under such market conditions, it is best to look for buy deals, expecting the continuation of the uptrend. First of all, it is worth considering the support level of 129.42. A resistance level of 130.99 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 128.55, the uptrend will likely be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2901
• Prev Close: 1.3013
• % chg. over the last day: +0.87%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency and is highly dependent not only on the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada but also on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The OPEC+ Alliance of Oil Exporters agreed at its monthly meeting to increase nominal production by 432,000 barrels per day, but this is well below the projected summer oil demand. This situation led to a sharp drop in oil prices yesterday, negatively impacting the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2838, 1.2908, 1.2774, 1.2692, 1.2644, 1.2607, 1.2521
• Resistance levels: 1.3019

The USD/CAD currency pair is bullish in terms of technical analysis. The price has reached the daily resistance level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but the divergence of higher timeframes is increasing. Trade is worth it only with short targets because, fundamentally, both the dollar index and the Canadian dollar are inclined to grow. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower timeframes from the support level of 1.2838, but it is better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.3019, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below 1.2693, the downtrend will likely be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

by JustForex

Credit Suisse last week lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 Index. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., and Morgan Stanley also forecast that the stock market will struggle this year. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of a cycle of aggressive rate hikes that are expected to put pressure on US corporate earnings and economic growth. This is already weakening the support of the stock market, causing stock indices to decline steadily for weeks, while the dollar index shows growth. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.99%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 3.20%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 4.29% on Monday.

High inflation, volatility in stock and commodity markets, and the war in Ukraine have become major risks to the US financial system, the Federal Reserve said in its Financial Stability Report on Monday. Rapidly rising US Treasury bond yields, war-related problems in oil markets, and other factors have already strained parts of the financial system.

Fed spokesman Bostic sees 2-3 interest rate hikes of 50 basis points in future meetings. On Monday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that he was confident that inflation would return to normal, but it would take longer. Kashkari has always advocated lower rates and soft monetary policy, but he voted for two hikes this year because it is necessary to control price increases. However, he noted that the burden of tightening policy would fall on those at the lower end of the wage spectrum, that is, the poor. Financial analysts are already estimating the probability of a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s upcoming June 14-15 meeting at 79% (yesterday it was 75%).

US President Joe Biden has signed a law on a lend-lease bill for Ukraine. Last week, the US House of Representatives approved a lend-lease bill that would allow a more efficient supply of weapons, ammunition, and equipment to Ukraine.

Major European indices traded lower on Monday. The German DAX (DE30) decreased by 2.15%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) lost 2.75%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) fell by 2.20%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) decreased by 2.32%. Investors remain concerned about the combination of higher interest rates and lower economic growth in the region. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains another source of tension in the market. The British Retail Consortium survey released yesterday showed a high degree of slowdown in UK growth. The UK risks facing stagflation (slowing economic growth and declining GDP due to rising consumer prices). Analysts believe that if the Bank of England does not act decisively now, the UK will face a significant economic decline in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, economic surveys and research already show that ordinary consumers have begun to save significantly due to a spike in the prices for almost all goods and services.

On Monday, crude oil prices fell by 6% as the dollar hit a 20-year high amid fears over a US interest rate hike, hitting the value of commodities priced in currencies and other risky assets. The OPEC+ Alliance of Oil Exporters agreed at its monthly meeting to increase nominal production by 432,000 barrels a day, but it’s well below the projected summer oil demand. Analysts note that oil prices are falling fast as fears of lower crude demand grow, given the COVID situation in China.

Asian markets traded closed in the red zone yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 2.53%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 3.81%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) lost 1.18%. The Chinese yuan has reached an 18-month low against the dollar as the Covid lockdown in Beijing slows down the economy, with US bond yields rising. China’s central bank is trying to slow the yuan’s fall, as it set the benchmark exchange rate above expectations for the fifth day in a row on Monday. Last month, the People’s Bank of China also cut its foreign-currency reserve requirement rate to boost the dollar supply and boost the yuan. But these actions are not enough to stop the depreciation as the dollar index strengthens steadily. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has fallen for the fifth session. The sharp decline follows a global sell-off and also because China has imposed tough lockdowns that are hurting business, and there are growing signs that this damage will spread to the global economy.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,991.24 -132.10 (-3.20%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,245.70 -653.67 (-1.99%)

DAX (DE40) 13,380.67 -293.62 (-2.15%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,216.58 -171.36 (-2.32%)

USD Index 103.70 +0.04 (+0.04%)

• – German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 14:40 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

By Orbex

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Keeps Momentum

EURUSD consolidates

The US dollar climbed after better-than-expected NFP in April. The euro is licking its wounds after it broke March 2020’s lows near 1.0640. The price is seeking support above March 2017’s lows (1.0500). The previous rebound came to a halt at the support-turned-resistance at 1.0640. A bullish breakout could drive the bears into giving up their chips, reducing the pressure and potentially paving the way for a rally towards 1.0810. A fall below the current consolidation range (1.0480) would send the single currency to 1.0400.

USDCAD bounces higher

The Canadian dollar softens as April’s labour market performance fell short of expectations. A combination of a break above March’s high (1.2900) and a bullish MA cross on the daily chart confirms the market’s upbeat mood. The latest retracement found support in the major demand zone over 1.2720. A break above 1.2840 may have flushed remaining selling interests out. Last December’s high at 1.2960 is the last hurdle and its breach could open the door for an extended rally above 1.3100.

GER 40 struggles for support

The Dax 40 tumbles as risk appetite subsides amid global policy tightening. The index has met stiff selling pressure at the origin of the late April sell-off at 14300. A drop below the psychological level of 14000 prompted buyers to bail out, invalidating the latest rebound in the process. A bearish MA cross is another sign that an imminent sell-off could be building up. A deeper correction below 13570 would send the price action to 13300. 13820 is a fresh resistance in case of a rebound.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com