Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 14

16 Jun

Speculator Extremes: New Zealand Dollar, Palladium lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on June 11th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

New Zealand Dollar


The New Zealand Dollar speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The New Zealand Dollar speculator level is currently at a 91.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 55.4 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 10,978 net contracts this week with a boost of 3,773 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Copper


The Copper speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Copper speculator level is now at a 90.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 3.0 this week. The speculator position registered 61,288 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher by 161 contracts in speculator bets.

Mexican Peso


The Mexican Peso speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Mexican Peso speculator level resides at a 89.8 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at -0.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 118,993 net contracts this week with a decline of -5,678 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Silver


The Silver speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The Silver speculator level is at a 89.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of -3.9 this week. The overall speculator position was 51,692 net contracts this week with a drop of -4,711 contracts in the speculator bets.

British Pound


The British Pound speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The British Pound speculator level sits at a 87.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 53.8 this week.

The speculator position was 52,121 net contracts this week with a boost of 8,911 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Palladium


The Palladium speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Palladium speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -17.5 this week. The overall speculator position was -13,914 net contracts this week with a decline of -1,242 contracts in the speculator bets.

Canadian Dollar


The Canadian Dollar speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Canadian Dollar speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -37.8 this week. The speculator position was -129,493 net contracts this week with a sharp decrease of -37,854 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Cotton


The Cotton speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Cotton speculator level resides at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -27.8 this week. The overall speculator position was -20,056 net contracts this week with a reduction by -13,365 contracts in the speculator bets.

5-Year Bond


The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 4.5 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -21.0 this week. The speculator position was -1,497,424 net contracts this week with a gain of 75,613 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Soybean Oil


Finally, the Soybean Oil speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Soybean Oil speculator level is at a 4.6 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 4.6 this week. The speculator position was -48,951 net contracts this week with a drop of -12,366 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
14 Jun

The Japanese yen fell to a six-week low after the Bank of Japan ended its meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen exchange rate paired with the US dollar looks unimpressive by the end of this week. The USD/JPY pair rose to almost 158.00 immediately after the end of the June meeting of the Bank of Japan, which left the interest rate unchanged. Everything went according to expectations.

In March, the BoJ raised the rate for the first time in seven years, moving it from negative territory to zero.

In its comments, the regulator noted that it will continue to buy Japanese government bonds at the same pace as agreed in March until its July meeting. Thus, market expectations were ignored, which worked against the JPY. Investors hoped that the BoJ would at least carefully consider gradually reducing its balance sheet through government bonds as part of a smooth monetary policy transition from quantitative easing to tightening.

Previously, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed the regulator’s intention to gradually reduce its substantial balance sheet in the future. However, the timing of this action remains uncertain.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market has breached 157.47 upwards and is continuing to develop a growth wave towards 158.74. After reaching this level, a correction down to the level of 157.47 is a possibility (test from above). We will then assess the probability of continuing the growth wave to 159.36. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero level and pointing upwards.

On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market continues to develop a wave of growth to the level of 158.40. Further, a correction wave to 157.47 is possible, followed by growth to 158.74, the local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line above level 80 and preparing to decline to level 20.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
13 Jun

US Dollar declines as Fed signals potential rate cut and inflation eases

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair is holding steady around 1.0805 on Thursday, following a surge in volatility the previous evening. The Federal Reserve concluded its meeting with a neutral stance, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25% per annum as anticipated. The Fed’s comments hinted at a possible interest rate cut by December while projecting more aggressive rate reductions for 2025, which the market viewed positively.

However, it was the US inflation data that significantly impacted the EUR/USD pair, more so than the Fed’s announcement. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May showed a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI was flat, compared to a 0.3% increase in April. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also decreased to 3.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations. This decline in price pressures followed unexpectedly robust employment market reports.

Investors have been highly reactive to each successive set of statistics, partly because the Fed has emphasised the significance of these data releases in shaping its monetary policy decisions. Following the inflation report, the EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.0852 before retreating slightly.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD surged past the consolidation range on the news, executing a correction wave to 1.0851. Currently, a downward impulse has brought it to 1.0800. We anticipate the formation of a consolidation range around this level. A downward breakout could lead to a further decline to 1.0776, potentially extending to 1.0701. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and pointing downward.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD has completed a decline to 1.0800. A corrective movement to 1.0826 may occur, testing from below. Following this correction, a new downward wave is expected to target 1.0766, with a continuation towards 1.0706 likely. The Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 20, suggests an upward move to 80, confirming the potential for this bearish trajectory.

Market outlook

As the market digests the implications of the latest US economic data and the Federal Reserve’s statements, fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair will likely continue. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for further volatility as more economic indicators are released and the Fed’s monetary policy evolves.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
12 Jun

Euro hits monthly low amid political instability in France

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair declined to 1.0740 on Wednesday, nearing the month’s low. This downward movement is primarily driven by the political instability in France following the significant developments in the European Parliament elections.

French President Emmanuel Macron has called for early legislative elections after the far-right party’s strong showing. While Macron retains the presidency and maintains control over foreign policy and defence, the election results could hinder his ability to implement new domestic policies and appoint ministers. There are growing concerns about Macron’s potential loss in the forthcoming elections, adding to worries about France’s financial stability.

The European Central Bank (ECB) met last week and decided to lower interest rates for the first time in five years. Despite this, the ECB adopted a cautious approach towards further monetary easing, contributing to the current economic outlook.

Attention is also focused on the ongoing US Federal Reserve meeting. While no changes in interest rates are expected, the market is eagerly awaiting the Fed’s latest economic assessment and guidance. If signalled, the timing of potential interest rate cuts could substantially impact market movements.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around the 1.0750 level. A potential decline to 1.0700 is considered, after which a rebound to 1.0750 may occur, a test from below. Further declines could target the 1.0660 level, possibly continuing to 1.0600. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and directed downwards.

On the H1 chart, the consolidation range has expanded between 1.0773 and 1.0717. A movement towards 1.0750 is anticipated, with a forming trend continuation pattern suggesting a further drop. Exiting this range on the downside could initiate a movement towards 1.0600. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80, is expected to fall to 20, aligning with the potential for further declines.

Market outlook

Investors are advised to watch monetary policy developments in Europe and the US. Additionally, political events in France, which could significantly impact the EUR/USD trajectory in the near term, should be monitored closely.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
10 Jun

Euro falls to four-week low: politicians to blame

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD plummeted below 1.0800 and is currently hovering around 1.0796 on Monday morning. This development came amid heightened political tensions in France. President Emmanuel Macron called for early elections on Sunday in the wake of his party’s crushing defeat and Marine Le Pen’s party’s resounding victory in the European Parliament elections. The far-right, which secured twice as many votes as its closest competitors, has won and now has significant influence in France. The defeat of the country’s pro-presidential forces has profoundly impacted the euro’s position.

Furthermore, the euro was also under pressure from the US dollar ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Robust employment statistics in the US for May had already led the market to lower its expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.

Last week, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate for the first time in five years. However, it is adopting an overly cautious stance on further rate cuts. In its comments, the ECB acknowledged the continued price pressures and projected that inflation will exceed targets this year and next. The regulator is refraining from making any specific commitments on a clear rate trajectory, indicating that all future ECB actions will have to be based on incoming statistics one way or another.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market completed the correction at 1.0901 and started the development of a new wave of decline. The downward impulse to the level of 1.0835 is fulfilled at the moment. A consolidation range around this level was formed, and the structure of the wave to 1.0747 was worked out with a downward exit. Today, we will consider the probability of a decline to 1.0735. After working off this level, the growth link to 1.0785 (test from below) is possible, with a further decline to 1.0672, representing the local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and is directed strictly downwards.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market continues to develop a structure of decline to 1.0734. After working off this level, a correction to 1.0785 is possible. Further, we will consider the probability of a decline to 1.0672, the first target of the downward trend. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is under the level of 20. We expect the beginning of growth to the level of 50.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
10 Jun

Trade of the Week: EURGBP bears ready pounce?

By ForexTime

  • Euro ↓ on political jitters
  • EURGBP hits 22-month low  
  • UK Jobs report & EU data in focus
  • Technical level –  0.8500
  • Bloomberg FX model – 80% – EURGBP – (0.84065 – 0.85327)

Euro bears are back in action thanks to political uncertainty linked to the European Parliament elections.

The second most traded currency in the world is down against most of its major counterparts as of writing.

But our attention falls on the EURGBP which gapped to its lowest level since August 2022 at Monday’s Asian open!

The lowdown…

The euro seems to be gripped by political jitters in Europe.

Over the weekend, French President Emmanual Macron dissolved parliament and called for snap elections by the end of this month after his big defeat by the far right. Given how far-right parties have made big gains in the EU elections, this development has raised questions about Parliament’s ability to form the majorities needed to drive policy.

Looking beyond politics, here are 3 factors that could move the EURGBP this week:

    1) UK data dump

In the United Kingdom, the latest jobs data and industrial production figures could influence expectations about when the Bank of England will cut rates.

  • Tuesday 11th June: UK May jobless claims, April unemployment rate
  • Wednesday 12th June:  UK Industrial & manufacturing production

Traders are currently pricing in a 64% probability of a 25-basis point cut by September with a move fully priced in by November.

  • Should overall data from the UK exceed market forecasts, this could push back BoE rate cut bets – dragging the EURGBP lower.
  • Weaker-than-expected data may fuel BoE rate cut expectations that send the EURGBP higher.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the UK jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.25% or declines of 0.23% in a 6-hour window post-release.

 

    2) EU data

Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the first time since 2019.

The central bank clarified that a “data-dependent” approach will be adopted when considering future policy moves. This could increase the euro’s sensitivity to economic data, especially if it impacts ECB cut bets.

It may be worth keeping a tab on the Germany CPI (final) and Eurozone industrial production figures this week.

Traders are currently pricing in a 57% probability of a 25-basis point cut in September with this jumping to 77% by October.

  • The EURGBP could close the gap if data from Europe prints above market forecasts.
  • Should overall data disappoint, the EURGBP could extend losses as ECB cut bets rise.

 

    3) Technical forces

The EURGBP is under pressure on the daily charts with prices trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day SMA. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit 30 – signalling that prices are oversold.

  • Sustained weakness below 0.8500 may encourage a decline towards 0.8400.
  • Should prices push back above 0.8500, this may open a path towards 0.8530.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to an 80% chance that EURGBP will trade within the 0.84065 – 0.85327 range over the next one-week period.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News
08 Jun

Currency Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets to lowest since 2018

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Japanese Yen & New Zealand Dollar

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Japanese Yen (23,938 contracts) with the British Pound (17,808 contracts), the Brazilian Real (17,722 contracts), the EuroFX (10,298 contracts),  the New Zealand Dollar (5,159 contracts), the Mexican Peso (3,752 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (713 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-5,054 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-1,397 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-1,387 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-363 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Currency Speculators drop Swiss Franc bets to lowest since 2018

Swiss franc speculator bets fell for a second consecutive week this week and dropped to an overall standing at -45,763 contracts. This is the seventh straight week that the speculator position has now exceeded -40,000 contracts.

The current -45,763 contract position marks the lowest level for CHF bets since August 14th of 2018 (a span of 303 weeks) and the currency is currently tied as the most bearish extreme market of all the futures instruments we cover. The franc speculator position has now been consecutively in bearish territory for 143 weeks, dating back to September 7th of 2021 when the last bullish position was seen.

The Swiss franc exchange rate versus the US dollar has also been lower in 2024 following a strong run higher last year. The Swiss currency, in 2023, hit its highest level versus the USD since 2015 with a decade-high exchange rate above the 1.2000 threshold. Since then, however, the CHF has been heavily under pressure due to a strong dollar and combined with a surprise interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in March. The franc has fallen by approximately 7 percent versus the dollar this year so far. The Swiss currency could remain under pressure for the time being as the SNB interest rate remains comparatively low at just 1.50 percent and Swiss inflation continues to be moderate with a 1.4 percent annual rate seen in May 2024.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Mexican Peso & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (93 percent), the British Pound (82 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (81 percent) led the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (63 percent) and Bitcoin (50 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (0 percent), the Swiss Franc (0 percent) and the US Dollar Index (15 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was the Brazilian Real (22 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (15.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (13.7 percent)
EuroFX (49.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (44.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (81.9 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (70.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (14.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (0.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (2.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (0.0 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (3.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (62.5 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (64.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (80.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (66.2 percent)
Mexican Peso (92.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (90.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (21.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.9 percent)
Bitcoin (49.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (55.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Australian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (55 percent), the Australian Dollar (50 percent) and the British Pound (46 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (33 percent) and the Japanese Yen (30 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Brazilian Real (-22 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-17 percent), the Canadian Dollar (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (10.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (10.8 percent)
EuroFX (33.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (19.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (46.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (11.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (29.9 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (6.0 percent)
Swiss Franc (-5.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.7 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-2.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (49.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (56.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (54.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (39.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-3.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-22.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-42.2 percent)
Bitcoin (-16.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-5.9 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

US Dollar Index Forex Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 4,887 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 713 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,174 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:69.415.19.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.731.16.0
– Net Position:4,887-6,1841,297
– Gross Longs:26,8035,8453,598
– Gross Shorts:21,91612,0292,301
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.287.626.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.8-8.6-12.1

 

Euro Currency Futures:

Euro Currency Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 67,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,298 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 57,572 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.157.111.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.071.87.3
– Net Position:67,870-98,78630,916
– Gross Longs:188,957383,42379,709
– Gross Shorts:121,087482,20948,793
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.252.235.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:33.2-35.030.9

 

British Pound Sterling Futures:

British Pound Sterling Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 43,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 17,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,402 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:38.142.112.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.060.310.6
– Net Position:43,210-48,7785,568
– Gross Longs:102,118112,71734,034
– Gross Shorts:58,908161,49528,466
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.918.473.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:46.0-50.242.4

 

Japanese Yen Futures:

Japanese Yen Forex Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -132,101 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 23,938 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -156,039 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.367.614.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:56.924.713.9
– Net Position:-132,101129,8952,206
– Gross Longs:40,427204,83044,416
– Gross Shorts:172,52874,93542,210
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.969.689.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:29.9-30.44.5

 

Swiss Franc Futures:

Swiss Franc Forex Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -45,763 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,397 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -44,366 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.878.511.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.221.023.0
– Net Position:-45,76356,817-11,054
– Gross Longs:7,75177,53411,667
– Gross Shorts:53,51420,71722,721
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.7 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.097.827.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.40.712.3

 

Canadian Dollar Futures:

Canadian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -91,639 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,054 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,585 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.172.810.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:48.535.213.5
– Net Position:-91,63999,904-8,265
– Gross Longs:37,360193,44927,528
– Gross Shorts:128,99993,54535,793
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.05.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.18.9-0.6

 

Australian Dollar Futures:

Australian Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -51,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,387 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,916 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.958.613.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.535.111.3
– Net Position:-51,30346,9234,380
– Gross Longs:51,661117,00026,878
– Gross Shorts:102,96470,07722,498
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.534.170.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:49.9-63.462.7

 

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

New Zealand Dollar Forex Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,205 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 5,159 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,046 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:54.434.87.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.248.86.6
– Net Position:7,205-7,663458
– Gross Longs:29,79119,0654,058
– Gross Shorts:22,58626,7283,600
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.821.964.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:54.6-53.939.1

 

Mexican Peso Futures:

Mexican Peso Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 124,671 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,919 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:58.137.62.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.185.71.2
– Net Position:124,671-127,4102,739
– Gross Longs:153,94399,5525,875
– Gross Shorts:29,272226,9623,136
– Long to Short Ratio:5.3 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):92.68.128.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.50.5-12.7

 

Brazilian Real Futures:

Brazil Real Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of -18,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 17,722 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:49.347.12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:78.216.34.7
– Net Position:-18,86020,125-1,265
– Gross Longs:32,23130,7681,785
– Gross Shorts:51,09110,6433,050
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 12.9 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.980.022.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.322.8-8.0

 

Bitcoin Futures:

Bitcoin Crypto Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,119 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -756 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.74.75.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:82.33.62.7
– Net Position:-1,119366753
– Gross Longs:24,4701,4721,601
– Gross Shorts:25,5891,106848
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.3 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.674.030.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.826.02.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions
07 Jun

Market awaits NFP data: Euro/Dollar consolidates

By RoboForex Analytical Department

At the end of the week, the US dollar is hovering around an eight-week low against the euro, but trading activity remains subdued. Everyone is conserving energy ahead of this evening’s May employment data from the US. These reports are expected to provide more insight into the timing of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy easing.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points, from 4.50% to 4.25% per annum. The euro retained its daily gains. The ECB gave few indications about its future steps, and the market remains uncertain whether there will be further rate cuts. Persistent inflationary pressures dim the prospects for the ECB.

In its comments, the ECB mentioned that the consumer price index will remain above the target of 2% until the end of next year.

The market is preparing for relatively soft non-farm payroll (NFP) data from the US. The final figure may fall below the forecast of 185,000.

Investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s decisions are constantly shifting. The market now predicts the first rate cut in September, followed by another in November.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has formed an initial wave of decline to 1.0854 and a correction up to 1.0901. We expect the start of a new wave of decline to the level of 1.0833. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0760, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0750. This first target of the decline wave is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is at its peak and ready to continue descending.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD is forming a consolidation range around 1.0882. An expansion of the range to 1.0908 is possible. After reaching this level, we will consider the likelihood of a new wave of decline to 1.0882. A break below this level will open the potential for a wave down to 1.0835, with a trend continuation prospect to 1.0765. This local target is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below the level of 80. We expect a decline to the level of 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Jun

New Zealand Dollar shows stability amid US economic concerns

By RoboForex Analytical Department 

The NZD/USD pair is stable, consolidating around 0.6189 on Wednesday. The New Zealand dollar maintains a sideways trend and appears relatively robust in the current market environment.

Recent pressure on the US dollar, triggered by disappointing employment statistics, has led to speculation that the US Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates after the September meeting. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed a decline in job openings to 8.059 million in April, the lowest since February 2021, indicating a cooling employment market. These developments are of significant concern for the Fed, suggesting a need to adjust monetary policy to support employment.

Market attention is now turning to the upcoming May private sector jobs data from ADP, which is expected to provide further insights into labour market conditions. The week will culminate with a comprehensive set of employment market statistics on Friday.

Regarding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), there are no expectations of an interest rate cut until at least mid-2025. The RBNZ is expected to maintain a stable policy to allow for a thorough data assessment.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair is evolving within a broad consolidation range around the 0.6136 level. A recent growth impulse has reached 0.6197. Today, a potential decline to 0.6137 is expected, which could test from below. Following this correction, a new wave of decline may initiate, targeting the 0.6136 level, potentially extending to 0.6070 if this level is breached. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointed downwards. The notable divergence between the chart peaks and the indicator further reinforces this analysis.

On the H1 chart, the pair showed a downward impulse to 0.6155, followed by a correction to 0.6191. Today, the market may execute an impulse to 0.6160, with the potential for a further decline to 0.6140 and an extension towards 0.6080, the first target of the downward wave. This scenario is technically validated by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 80 but trending sharply downward.

Market outlook

As the NZD/USD pair continues to show resilience amidst fluctuating US economic indicators, it is crucial for investors to closely monitor incoming data, particularly from the US employment market, which could significantly influence the Fed’s next steps. The stability of the New Zealand dollar, supported by the RBNZ’s steady policy stance, contrasts the potential volatility in the US dollar as fiscal and monetary policy expectations evolve.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
04 Jun

Japanese yen strengthens unexpectedly against US dollar

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair unexpectedly declined last night due to a weakening US dollar. Currently, it is hovering around 156.33.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki highlighted the government’s recent interventions to support the yen, significantly impacting the market. Official data reveals that throughout April, Japan spent approximately 9.79 trillion yen (62.2 billion USD) on efforts to stabilise the national currency.

Suzuki pointed out that the interventions aimed to mitigate excessive fluctuations in the currency market. He affirmed that Japan would continue to monitor the forex market and act against disorderly movements vigilantly, expressing satisfaction with the effects of these measures. This marks the first time the Japanese authorities have acknowledged their market interventions conducted in late April and early May.

The yen’s strengthening is also bolstered by the recent depreciation of the US dollar, driven by market anticipations of a potential earlier rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. As expectations grow for softened US monetary policy, the dollar has declined, boosting other currencies, including the yen.

USD/JPY technical analysis

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY completed a correction wave, reaching 157.70. A new wave of decline aiming for 153.77 is forming. Once this target is reached, a potential correction to 155.44 (testing from below) may follow, preceding a further decline towards 149.70. The bearish outlook is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, the correction phase to 157.47 has concluded, and a downward impulse towards 155.44 is underway. Following this, a correction to 156.45 (testing from below) could occur, potentially leading to a further drop to 155.22, the primary target. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is positioned above 80 and is anticipated to drop to 20.

Summary

The yen’s unexpected strengthening reflects a complex interplay of domestic interventions and broader market reactions to shifts in US monetary policy. Given the ongoing adjustments in global economic expectations and central bank policies, investors and traders should closely monitor these developments, as further fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair are likely.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
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