Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 133

German Broker RoboMarkets Deutschland GMBH Launches the Provision of Its Dedicated Services to Professional Investors Only Under the RoboMarkets Pro Brand

June 9, 2022 – Limassol, Cyprus

RoboMarkets Deutschland GMBH, a BaFin-regulated broker registered in Frankfurt am Main, announces the start of the provision of its services dedicated only to professional clients. To implement this new strategy, the company has launched a new brand, RoboMarkets Pro, with which it will continue its operations in Germany.

RoboMarkets Pro will focus on working with professional clients who are interested in cooperating with an EU-regulated broker and are in demand of specific investment products and trading conditions. This is a business-driven decision to satisfy the requirements and demand of German clients and provide them with access to special conditions for some assets, including DE40, stocks, currency pairs, and over 12,000 other instruments to invest in with leverage up to 1:300. RoboMarkets Pro clients will also get free swaps until the end of 2022 and many other tools for professional traders.

Maximilian Felske, General Manager of RoboMarkets Pro, said: “Professional traders are currently the most neglected group of clients in the brokerage business – we are therefore putting extra effort into paying more attention to them and making their trading more comfortable. If you’re a frequent trader that can be qualified as professional, there are many more benefits to trading with an EU-regulated broker than trading offshore.”

In the middle of 2018, when ESMA changed regulations and restricted higher leverage values for CFDs, a big percentage of active traders were forced to go offshore. Some of them did so because they had no other choice, as they did not meet the criteria to be classified as professionals; while others who went offshore had to work much more actively than the EU-regulated ones due to the general trends in the market. Since then, a lot of things have changed, with more and more clients operating with large volumes of shares, CFDs, and currencies. Consequently, the general recovery of the economy and the rise in asset prices fueled the growth of investor portfolios, which have become comparable to professional ones, thus requiring a new approach to the provision of services.

“We notice this group of clients has a rising demand for high-leverage products. The company will therefore focus on satisfying this, serving them in the best way – starting from an onboarding process and continuing with specific conditions for the most popular products: CFDs on major indices, major currency pairs, etc. Also, we strongly and categorically believe that for any solid and established brokerage group, it’s much more comfortable to have traders that are active mostly in the EU-regulated entities, rather than traders who are trying to onboard offshore units on their own initiative. Traders also are much more protected and comfortable while trading with the EU-regulated units because of the security, variety of deposit/withdrawal methods, and localised customer support provided”, Maximilian Felske added.

About RoboMarkets Pro

RoboMarkets Pro is the brand name of RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH. RoboMarkets Deutschland GmbH is a German broker that’s supervised by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority under number 154068 and offers financial services to residents of EU/EEA countries. Find more detailed information about the Company’s products and activities on its website www.robomarkets.de.

 

Murrey Math Lines 09.06.2022 (USDCHF, GOLD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

In the H4 chart, after breaking the 200-day Moving Average, USDCHF is trading above to indicate a possible ascending tendency. In this case, the pair is expected to continue growing to reach the resistance at 5/8. However, this scenario may be cancelled if the price breaks the support at 4/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may reverse and fall towards 3/8.

USDCHFH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

As we can see in the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

USDCHF_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD is trading below the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 3/8, break it, and then continue moving downwards to reach the support at 2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the resistance at 4/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow towards 5/8.

XAUUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

XAUUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 09.06.2022 (XAUUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, XAUUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 1885.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1843.00 before resuming the ascending tendency.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, NZDUSD has formed a Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.6565. After that, the asset may break the resistance level and continue moving upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 0.6415 first and then resume its growth.

NZDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD has formed a Harami reversal pattern near the resistance level. At the moment, the pair is reversing in the form of a new descending impulse. If the price breaks the support area, it may continue falling. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.2400. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 1.2600 before resuming the downtrend.

GBPUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.09

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0701
  • Prev Close: 1.0716
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.14%

The long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. It is highly likely that the ECB will formally announce the end of net asset purchases and schedule the first interest rate hike for July. Analysts are just trying to predict which step of the increase the ECB will choose. But given the conservatism of European politicians and Lagarde’s credibility, the best option is to start with a 0.25% hike. Statistical data also speaks in favor of such a step. The European labor market remains strong, and GDP showed 0.6% growth for the last quarter, higher than the expected 0.3%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0694, 1.0627, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0738, 1.0770, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator is back above zero, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is a slight buying pressure. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0694, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0770, but only after the additional confirmation. The Euro may be very volatile today, so traders should be very attentive.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.09:
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2589
  • Prev Close: 1.2535
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.43%

May PMI data indicated another slowdown in the UK construction sector. Weak consumer confidence and worries about the outlook for the economy are holding back demand. Higher borrowing costs and strong inflationary pressures were also cited as factors likely to restrain growth over the next 12 months. At the moment, most UK economic indicators are showing a slowdown.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2498, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
  • Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but a slight buying pressure remains. A wide price corridor is forming now. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2498, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.54
  • Prev Close: 134.24
  • % chg. over the last day: +1.28%

The Japanese yen continues to decline against major currencies. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan, on the contrary, is keeping policy soft. The US Treasury yields are rising and could rise even higher if US inflation data is worse than forecast on Friday. Rising US yields give confidence to the dollar index. Under current conditions, the Japanese yen is likely to remain depressed against the US dollar in the coming days and weeks. Perhaps the only possibility of a significant bearish reversal of the USD/JPY pair will be a currency intervention by the Japanese government.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 133.00, 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64
  • Resistance levels: 135.16

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of overbought and divergence. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the average lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 133.00, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.16 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 130.13, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2526
  • Prev Close: 1.2557
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends not only on the dollar index but also on the oil price movements. Oil prices jumped about 3% on Wednesday as gasoline demand in the US continues to grow despite high fuel prices. The fundamental picture is now favorable for both the US dollar and Canadian dollar to strengthen, so do not expect any medium-term trend movements here.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2567, 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator has become inactive again, and divergence is traced on several time frames. The price is forming a wide sideways. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2510, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2567 or 1.2623, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.06.09:
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The US 10-year bond yields exceeded 3%. ECB monetary policy meeting in focus

by JustForex

The broader tech sector was under pressure from rising Treasury yields yesterday, with 10-year bond yields exceeding 3% amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will stay on course to raise rates to fight inflation. The disappointing comments triggered a wave of analyst downgrades on Wall Street. As a result, US stock indices fell yesterday. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.81%, while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.73% yesterday.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday that inflation will not be a decade-long problem for the United States and that the Biden administration’s spending on the COVID-19 bailout only “modestly” pushed prices up. On Tuesday, Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee that high inflation is likely to continue, although she hopes it will come down soon, and that the Biden administration will likely raise its budget forecast to 4.7% inflation for this year. Many House Republicans believe that the Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout measure, known as the American Rescue Plan, is one of the main causes of high inflation.

Stock markets in Europe decreased yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.76%, French CAC 40 (FR 40) lost 0.80%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.01%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday down by 0.08%.

The long-awaited ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. With a high probability, the ECB will officially announce the end of its net asset purchases and schedule its first interest rate hike for the month of July. The ECB is also likely to try to remain flexible to change rates if necessary and use other tools to provide liquidity support.

According to preliminary data from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), in April 2022, the industrial production index increased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. In March 2022, there was a significant decrease of 3.7% compared to February 2022.

Oil prices jumped about 3% to a 13-week high on Wednesday as US gasoline demand continues to rise despite record gasoline prices amid expectations of higher oil demand in China and tight supply. The US crude inventories rose unexpectedly last week, while inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by a record amount as refinery capacity rose to its highest level since January 2020.

Asian markets closed yesterday in positive territory. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.04%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.24%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) increased by 0.36%.

Australia’s sharp interest rate hike sent shockwaves across the country. At the same time, according to the big four banks, another massive increase will occur in just a few weeks. Australia faced an aggressive rate hike on Tuesday when the Reserve Bank announced that the official interest rate would jump from 0.35% to 0.85% in an attempt to curb rapidly rising inflation. The NAB expects interest rates to reach 2% by the end of this year, and ANZ expects two more hikes in 2022.

The Chinese authorities are winding down one of the longest lockdowns in recent years, positively affecting many industries (especially related to construction and infrastructure). At the same time, analysts are surprised that copper prices (which are highly dependent on the state of China’s economy) are falling again.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,115.77 −44.91 (−1.08%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,910.90 −269.24 (−0.81%)

DAX (DE40) 14,445.99 −110.63 (−0.76%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,593.00 −5.93 (−0.078%)

USD Index 102.56 +0.24 (+0.24%)

Important events for today:
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada BoC Gov Macklem Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Bounces Back

By Orbex

USDCHF breaks resistance

The US dollar recovered in anticipation of consumer price data on Friday. Medium-term sentiment remains upbeat and a break above 0.9760 may have put the greenback back on track as sellers rushed to cover their positions. The RSI’s overbought situation has briefly limited the upside but the bulls may see a pullback as an opportunity to accumulate. 0.9710 is the first support and 0.9600 an important level to keep the reversal intact. As the pair makes its way to the parity once again, 0.9900 would be the next hurdle.

EURGBP awaits breakout

The euro clawed back losses after solid GDP growth in the eurozone in Q1. On the daily chart, the pair is in an ascending triangle pattern, foreshadowing a breakout which would dictate the direction in the weeks to come. The pair’s choppy path may have shaken out some weak hands, but the latest retreat has found support in the demand zone (0.8490) over the 30-day moving average. The triple top at 0.8585 is a major resistance and its breach could end a four-week long consolidation and resume the rally towards 0.8660.

USOIL tests resistance

WTI crude finds support from tight spare capacity. A close above the recent peak at 119.20 has put the price action back on track after a short-lived retracement. The former resistance at 117.30 has turned into a support where trend followers are likely to place their bids. A surge above 123.00 would confirm that the path of least resistance is still up and may extend the rally to March’s high at 129.00. On the downside, 119.70 is the immediate support and 117.30 a second line of defence for the bulls.

Test your strategy on how oil will fare with Orbex – Open your account now. 


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.06.2022 (USDCAD, EURUSD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2595 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2275. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2785. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2875.

USDCAD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is testing the bullish channel’s downside border. The instrument is currently moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.0680 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.0915. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.0595. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.0495. To confirm a further uptrend, the price must break the upside border of the Triangle pattern and fix above 1.0765.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD has fixed below the bullish channel’s downside border. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6465 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6285. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6555. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Mid-week Technical Outlook: FX Majors & Minors In Focus

By ForexTime 

– Caution was the name of the game on Wednesday as inflation fears and concerns over slowing growth left investors on edge.

European shares fell while Wall Street futures flashed red due to the lack of appetite for risk ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday and the US inflation report on Friday. In the commodities arena, oil prices drifted higher thanks to supply concerns and prospects of higher demand. Gold struggled for direction, waiting for a fresh directional catalyst to trigger some action.

There was some action in the FX space with the yen weakening against every single G10 currency. King dollar stabilized across the board while the euro appreciated ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. With the trading month of June in full swing, we have a couple of currency trends under our radar. If you have an appetite for technical analysis and want insight into potential currency trends, then check out the charts below!

EURUSD waits on ECB

The EURUSD remains in a range with support at 1.0630 and resistance at 1.0780.

Prices are trading above the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average while the MACD trades above zero. A strong breakout above 1.0780 may trigger an incline towards 1.0920 and 1.1000. Alternatively, a breakdown under 1.0630 could open the doors back towards 1.0480 and 1.0350, respectively.

GBPUSD breakout on the horizon?

Strong support can be found at 1.2450 while resistance may be found at 1.2650.

Given how prices are trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average – bears certainly have some control. On top of this, the currency pair is respecting a downwards channel. A breakdown below 1.2450 could encourage a selloff towards 1.2300 and 1.2150. Alternatively, a move back to 1.2650 may open the doors towards 1.2840.

Time for the AUDUSD to fall?

After punching above the 0.7270 level, the AUDUSD looks tired and ready to decline. There is strong resistance around the 50, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Average with prices eyeing the 0.7150 support. A strong break below this level could open a path towards 0.7050 and potentially lower. Should 0.7270 prove to be unreliable resistance, the AUDUSD could venture back towards 0.7350.

USDJPY hits fresh 20 year high

The subtitle says it all.

USDJPY bulls are on a tear, hitting a fresh 20-year high of 134.00 this morning. This currency pair remains heavily bullish on the daily charts with the next key level of interest found at 136.00. If bulls decide to take a break, a technical throwback towards the 131.00/132.00 regions could be on the cards before the upside resumes. A decline back under 131.00 could bring bears back into the picture.

GBPJPY primed to shoot higher?

A depreciating yen has sent the GBPJPY skyrocketing higher over the past few days. The currency is approaching its 2022 high at 168.43! A breakout above this level may send the currency pair to levels not seen since January 2016. A strong breakout above 168.50 could open the doors towards 170.00. If prices sink back below 166.50, we could see a decline towards 164.00.

NZDUSD wobbles above 0.6450

Looks like the party could be over for NZD bulls after prices struggled to breakout of the current range. The 0.6450 support looks shaky and ready to give way to bears this week. A strong break below this level could encourage a decline towards 0.6300 and 0.62200, respectively. If prices end up rebounding from 0.6450, the next level of interest can be found at 0.6570.

EURAUD struggles for direction

Over the last few days, the EURAUD has struggled for direction. Prices have remained within a tight range with 1.4900 acting as a sticky level of interest. A strong break above this point could signal a move towards 1.5150 and 1.5300. Alternatively, a decline back towards 1.4770 may open a path back to 1.4600 and lower.

EURGBP choppy as ever…

If you like turbulence and volatility, check out the EURGBP. This currency pair remains choppy as ever as bulls and bears battle it out. Some support can be found at 0.8500 and resistance around 0.8580. If bulls can conquer this resistance, the next key point can is seen around 0.8630. Below 0.8500, there is support at 0.8450 and 0.8420.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0691
  • Prev Close: 1.0704
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.12%

Concerns about Italy’s political stability have resurfaced again. There is growing skepticism about whether the Draghi government (in office since February 2021) has the strength to provide economic reforms, mainly to finance next-generation EU modernization projects, before the next general election. There is discontent about the growing income gap between Italy and Germany in Rome. If uncertainty in Italy intensifies, both the euro and ECB policy could be affected.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0672, 1.0627, 1.0611, 1.0568, 1.0509, 1.0445, 1.0379
  • Resistance levels: 1.0738, 1.0770, 1.0786, 1.0869

From a technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, the price is trading below the moving averages. Under such market conditions, investors can look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0672, but only with confirmation and short targets. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0738 or 1.0770, but only after the additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.06.08:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2529
  • Prev Close: 1.2587
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.46%

In the UK, the battle for the leadership of the Conservative Party is taking place amid a cost-of-living crisis that threatens to push the economy into recession. This puts pressure on the Bank of England to maintain growth and contain the highest inflation in four decades while keeping up with the Federal Reserve. Johnson’s narrow victory has no clear implications for economic policy and, therefore, for the fundamentals of the pound.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2541, 1.2498, 1.2433, 1.2398, 1.2283, 1.2199
  • Resistance levels: 1.2628, 1.2669, 1.2698, 1.2770

The GBP/USD currency pair trend is bullish on the hourly time frame. The MACD indicator became positive, and the buyers’ pressure increased. Yesterday the price sharply rebounded from the priority change level and then fixed above the moving averages. A wide price corridor is forming now. Under such market conditions, buy deals may be considered from the support level of 1.2541 or 1.2498, but only with additional confirmation and short targets. Sell deals should be looked for from the resistance level of 1.2628, but with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2433 support level and fixes below, the mid-term downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2022.06.08:
  • – UK Construction PMI at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 131.85
  • Prev Close: 132.63
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.59%

The Japanese yen has fallen to a 20-year low. Two factors can explain the fall in the yen. The Fed is tightening monetary policy, while the Bank of Japan is easing. And US Treasury yields are rising and are now above the 3 percent level. Rising US yields are giving confidence to the dollar index. As US interest rates move up and the Bank of Japan limits JGB yields, the difference in the US and Japanese interest rates continues to widen, and the risk to the yen remains skewed to the downside.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 132.00, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76, 128.10, 127.64, 127.24, 127.04
  • Resistance levels: 133.86

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency is bullish. The price is steadily growing, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of overbought and divergence. It is best to wait for a slight correction, as the price has deviated strongly from the moving lines. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 132.00, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 133.86 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 129.48, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2022.06.08:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2574
  • Prev Close: 1.2532
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

After two months of strong growth in goods imports and exports, imports fell by 0.4%, and exports lost 2.1% in real (physical) terms in April. This is not a good sign for the Canadian currency, but analysts are confident that the decline is temporary. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends on the dollar index and the dynamics of oil prices. Oil prices have reached almost three-month highs, as the supply shortage generally supported the market.The fundamental picture now is favorable to strengthening both the American dollar and the Canadian one, so it is not worth waiting for the mid-term trend movements here.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2537, 1.2510
  • Resistance levels: 1.2567, 1.2623, 1.2676, 1.2728, 1.2765, 1.2807, 1.2893, 1.2953

The USD/CAD currency pair is bearish in terms of technical analysis. The MACD indicator is negative again, but the divergence is observed on several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2537 or 1.2510, but it is better to wait for the bullish initiative. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2567, but also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates above 1.2728, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
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by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Dollar Index: The Last Shall Be First

By Ino.com

– Since my last update, the dollar advanced further to the upside establishing the new multi-year top of $105 in the middle of May. Later, the market started the correction as the dollar index (DX) drifted into the area of $101.

Last time, you bet the most on the further rise of the dollar to $121 (Neckline of Giant Double Bottom pattern). The second choice was the Bearish scenario for the main currency. It is early to judge the results as the price dynamics are somewhat mixed.

Let me show you one comparison graph that shows the underlying fundamentals of the dollar index. But, before that, to refresh the memory, firstly, I put below the chart showing the composition of the dollar index.

Dollar

The euro takes the largest piece of cake with 57.6%; the Japanese yen with 13.6% is the second largest component, although the gap with the euro is huge. The third is the British pound, as its part weighs 11.9%.

I put the top three components mentioned above against the U.S. in terms of real interest yield in the chart below.

Dollar Comparison Chart

As we can see from the chart above, the U.S. (blue line) was the laggard for almost two years in terms of real interest rate compared to peers. The consequence was the sinking dollar index during the whole of 2020 and the first half of 2021.

The global inflation has no mercy for any country as we can see how peers also followed the U.S. real interest rate downtrend to even catch up with it around -8% this year as I am talking about the Euro area (green line) and the United Kingdom (orange line).

The U.S. underdog has recently escaped from the death spiral streaming into the abyss. It was the first up to break the long-running downtrend in April. On top of that, the U.S. real interest rate could surpass the Euro area and the U.K. as the Fed took it seriously.

The U.K. real interest rate was the second up, while the main rival Euro and Yen are still falling down. Moreover, the latter “ever deflationary” country now suffers from inflation either.

In that very update, you also voted the most for the Fed to lift the interest rate to the 4-6% area amid my projection of double-digit interest rate.

This situation favors the stronger dollar index and supports your bet on a target of $121.

I prepared for you another chart that spots a correlation that could help us to see the prospects of the dollar index.

Dollar Chart

The U.S. government bond 10-year yield (10Y, orange) had bottomed in 2020. However, it was months ahead until DX (blue) could do it either. The 10Y had shown the outlook of the market participants who just demanded the Fed to act on accelerating inflation. It was the turning point when the 10Y line crossed over the DX line as the latter continued to the downside on inertia for only a few months onwards to establish a multi-year bottom.

The dollar index started to pick up from the valley following the rising yield. The Fed had muted that signal from the market that day, and the yield started its correction down, and so did the DX. A strong correlation was back on track in summer 2021, and the sync continues these days.

We can observe the perfect match of these two instruments this year as the market finally got the clarity from the Fed. Moreover, the ideal synced top is another evidence of the strong correlation.

The recent correction was deeper for the DX than for the 10Y. The latter restarted its trend to the upside into the 3% area. This leading indicator could signal more upcoming strength for the dollar index.

Intelligent trades!

Aibek Burabayev
INO.com Contributor, Metals

Disclosure: This contributor has no positions in any stocks mentioned in this article. This article is the opinion of the contributor themselves. The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. This contributor is not receiving compensation (other than from INO.com) for their opinion.

By Ino.com – See our Trader Blog, INO TV Free & Market Analysis Alerts

Source: Dollar Index: The Last Shall Be First