InvestMacro

By JustForex

Investors looked closely at the Federal Reserve’s latest FOMC protocol, which provided new data on the Central Bank’s monetary policy and the fight against inflation. According to the latest FOMC minutes, the Fed will also raise interest rates by 0.75% at its July meeting. The committee also lowered its growth forecast for the second half of 2022 and 2023. The minutes reflect participants’ concerns that a rate hike has a “greater than expected” impact on economic growth. Participants have not seen enough evidence that supply constraints have loosened enough to help control inflation.

According to analysts, a 50 basis point rate hike at the July meeting indicates a final rate of 3%, and a 75 basis point hike suggests a peak of 3.25% or 3.5%. At 3.5%, there is about a 50% chance of recession.

The ISM US Services PMI Index was 55.3 in June, down from 55.9 in May but better than expected at 54 points.

As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.36%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.35% on Wednesday. All three indices ended the day in the green territory.

IStock markets in Europe mostly rose yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.56%, French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 2.03%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.14%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up by 1.17%.

More than 35 members of the British government resigned in less than 24 hours. One in five members of parliament who have held public office left his post. Boris Johnson is ignoring calls to step down despite the massive layoffs of officials. “The prime minister’s job is to lead the country through difficult times,” he said. Mr. Johnson added that millions voted for him and wondered if any potential successors could replicate his success in the next election. Despite the political problems, the Bank of England’s chief economist Hugh Pill is confident that the Bank of England will return inflation to its target level of 2%. However, he did not clarify when this would happen.

All oil and gas fields affected by the strike in Norway’s oil sector are expected to return to full operation within days. Analysts expect oil prices to recover quickly as supply shortages persist. Goldman Sachs raised its natural gas price forecasts, saying that full restoration of Russian gas supplies via Nord Stream 1 is no longer a likely scenario. On the other hand, Citigroup says WTI could fall to $65 a barrel by the end of this year and fall to $45 by the end of 2023 if demand declines.

Gold hit a 10-month low on the back of hawkish US Federal Reserve policy, pushing up the dollar and government bond yields. According to the minutes of the Central Bank meeting, the Fed believes there is a real danger that high inflation will take root in the US economy and that an appropriate increase in interest rates will be the only way to balance unrestrained prices with growth. In other words, gold and silver have no fundamental reason to rise.

Asian markets closed lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) decreased by 1.20% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down 1.22%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.52% on Wednesday.

China’s economy is expected to gradually overcome the negative effects of the epidemic in the second half of this year, with economic indicators showing improvement amid a series of supportive policy measures, according to a report from the People’s Bank of China. According to the report, employment in the country remains stable despite the problems, and price growth is kept in a moderate range, giving the authorities more room for maneuver in macroeconomic policy. The report suggests using soft monetary policy to help businesses overcome difficulties, expand efficient investment and stabilize growth.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,845.08 +13.69 (+0.36%)

Dow Jones (US30) 31,037.68 +69.86 (+0.23%)

DAX (DE40) 12,594.52 +193.32 (+1.56%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,107.77 +82.30 (+1.17%)

USD Index 107.06 +0.53 (+0.50%)

• – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking the consolidation range downwards, completing the descending wave at 1.0300, and then forming a new consolidation range around the latter level, EURUSD has broken it to the downside as well and may continue falling with the target at 1.0220 or even extend this structure down to 1.0000. Later, the market may start a new correction to return to 1.0300.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

Having broken the consolidation range downwards and reaching the predicted target at 1.1990, GBPUSD has broken this level as well and may later continue falling towards 1.1860. After that, the instrument may return to 1.1990 to test it from below and then form a new descending structure with the target at 1.1822.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

After completing the descending structure at 135.50 and then forming a new consolidation range around this level, USDJPY has broken it to the downside and may continue falling towards 134.55. Later, the market may start another correction up to 135.77.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

Having completed the ascending wave at 0.9630 and forming a new consolidation range around this level, USDCHF has broken it to the upside to reach 0.9703. Possibly, the pair may correct to test 0.9630 from above and then resume growing with the first target at 0.9766.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After finishing the descending wave at 0.6800 and breaking this level, AUDUSD has finished the descending wave at 0.6760 along with the correction up to 0.6800. Possibly, today the pair may resume trading downwards with the target at 0.6717.

BRENT

Having completed the descending wave at 111.00 and breaking this level, Brent has reached the short-term correctional target at 103.88. Today, the asset may form one more ascending wave to test 110.74 from below and then resume trading downwards with the target at 102.00.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 1814.00, reaching 1784.60, and then breaking the latter level, Gold is expected to continue falling with the short-term target at 1755.30. Later, the market may correct to test 1784.60 from below and then resume falling to reach 1700.00.

S&P 500

The S&P index is still consolidating around 3787.0. Possibly, the asset may expand the range down to 3700.0 and then form one more ascending wave to reach 3910.0 or even extend this structure up to 4100.0. On the other hand, if the price breaks the range to the upside, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 3500.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.0417
• Prev Close: 1.0264
• % chg. over the last day: -1.49%

On Tuesday, the euro fell to its lowest level in 20 years. It was largely due to falling investor sentiment, with increased fears of a recession in the Eurozone, rising gas prices, no signs of the conflict in Ukraine easing, and the US Federal Reserve and ECB interest rate differential. All of these factors have dealt a strong blow to the euro, which has lost more than 9% of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0223, 1.0179
• Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. Yesterday, the price showed a sharp bearish impulse. When the price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become negative, showing oversold signs. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0223, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0504 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.06:

• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone EU Economic Forecasts (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2101
• Prev Close: 1.1954
• % chg. over the last day: -1.23%

Yesterday, the Bank of England released its Financial Stability Report. The report indicates that the global outlook has deteriorated markedly. It’s putting pressure on household and corporate finances. Commodity markets remain significant risks, and the invasion of Ukraine is a key factor in further forecasts as it could lead to even more turmoil in global energy and food markets. The Bank of England, along with other central banks, is raising interest rates in an attempt to lower inflation. Nevertheless, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey admitted that this has made the economic situation more difficult for households and businesses. In addition to the economic crisis, a political crisis is brewing in Britain. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak resigned just minutes after the health minister resigned, saying that he had lost confidence in Johnson’s ability to govern in the national interest.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.1938
• Resistance levels: 1.1989, 1.2021, 1.2065, 1.2095, 1.2137

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. Yesterday the price showed a sharp bearish impulse. When the price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become negative, showing oversold signs. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.1989 or 1.2021, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.1938, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.06:

• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 135.56
• Prev Close: 135.88
• % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

Despite the dollar’s impressive rally yesterday, the Japanese yen traded much more quietly than the other currencies, indicating that USD/JPY prices may have reached a ceiling and could reverse soon. However, this is not helped by the policy of Japan’s Central Bank, which continues to take a soft approach, while the US Federal Reserve is aggressively raising interest rates.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 135.16, 134.11, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
• Resistance levels: 136.48

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Buyer’s pressure in recent days is increasing again. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the price forms a wide balance. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 135.16, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 136.48 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.06:

• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2861
• Prev Close: 1.3028
• % chg. over the last day: +1.30%

The American dollar showed a spectacular rally yesterday, while oil prices collapsed. As a result, the USD/CAD quotes soared. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it highly depends on instruments such as the dollar index and oil. However, it should be noted that the Bank of Canada is also on the way to tightening the interest rates and practically does not lag behind the US Federal Reserve. It means that the Canadian dollar has a reason to strengthen.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2998, 1.2959, 1.2934, 1.2894
• Resistance levels: 1.3052, 1.3077

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. Yesterday the price showed a sharp bullish impulse, and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. Under such market conditions, waiting for a small pullback is better, as the price has strongly deviated from the average lines. It is best to look for buy trades on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2998 or 1.2959, but better with additional confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3052, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2894 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By George Prior

– The British pound fell against the U.S. dollar and the UK’s leading benchmark FTSE dropped amid more uncertainty coming from PM Boris Johnson’s administration.

UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid said in a tweet that he quit Johnson’s government and that he’s lost confidence in the Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak also announced his resignation on Tuesday.

The pound registered a decline of 1.4% right after the news, after earlier falling as much as 1.8% to 1.1899, the lowest since March 2020.

Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations, says: “Slowing growth, and other economic factors, are likely to have had more of an impact on the pound.

“But there’s no getting away from the fact, this all creates more much more uncertainty for sterling. “

Global investors were warned in late May to hedge against an ‘existential’ crisis with the pound by Wall Street analysts as the British currency faces issues usually only seen in emerging markets.

Whilst sterling strengthened 0.2% that month, it remains the third-worst performing major currency this year. It has weakened 8% to $1.2468 in 2022.

The CEO doubled down on a previous comment made during Boris Johnson’s previous Confidence Vote, noting that he believes there will be a leadership challenge before the next election.

When names are put into the ring to become the next leader, and policy agendas of the frontrunners are known, “the pound can be expected to become highly volatile – just as it did during the Brexit negotiations,” he explains.

“The issues laid bare by Johnson’s possible successors that will impact the pound would include the UK’s relationship with the EU and single market access, fiscal stimulus and the Northern Ireland protocol, amongst others.”

Nigel Green concludes: “Sterling is falling out of favour currently for a myriad of reasons, including politics.

“In turn, this will favour the dollar, the euro and others.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is rebounding from Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.0465 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.0255. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.0585. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.0675. To confirm further decline, the price must break the rising channel’s downside border and fix below 1.0385.

BRENT

Brent is testing the resistance level. The instrument is currently moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 115.15 and then resume moving upwards to reach 124.45. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 111.05. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 109.55.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is correcting within the bearish channel. The instrument is currently moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6230 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6075. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6320. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6415.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has formed a Hammer reversal pattern close to the support area. At the moment, EURUSD may is reversing in the form of another ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.0490. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may fall to reach 1.0355 and continue the downtrend without testing 1.0490.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns not far from the support area, such as Hammer. At the moment, the asset may reverse in the form of a new ascending impulse. In this case, the upside target may be at 137.60. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 135.25 and continue the uptrend only after the pullback.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns near the support area, such as an Inverted Hammer, EURGBP is reversing in the form of a new rising impulse. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 0.8665. Later, the market may test this level, break it, and continue moving upwards. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct to reach 0.8590 first and then resume the uptrend.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.0415
• Prev Close: 1.0422
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

In his speech yesterday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that higher inflation in the Eurozone would remain for some time. The ECB expects that lower energy prices, eliminating supply disruptions related to the pandemic, and normalizing monetary policy will help inflation return to the 2% target in the medium term. But the war and the risk of further energy supply disruptions to the Eurozone still pose a significant downside risk. The ECB is still planning to raise interest rates by 0.25% at the July meeting and make another increase at the September meeting.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.0412, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0447, 1.0504, 1.0564, 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is forming a flat again. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0447 or 1.0504, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0412, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

• – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2103
• Prev Close: 1.2102
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

The British pound sterling rose against the safe-haven currencies on Monday, helped by an improvement in global risk appetite during a calm trading session due to the US holiday weekend. The difference between the monetary policy of the Bank of England and the US Fed on higher inflation also put pressure on the pound. The Fed interest rate is currently at 1.75%, while the Bank of England rate is at 1.25%. Such an overbalance of the rate will contribute to a further decline in GBPUSD quotes in the medium term.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2062, 1.2015, 1.1974
• Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2172, 1.2238, 1.2324, 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price is trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price is forming a wide-volatile flat. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2137 or 1.2172, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2062, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2324 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

• – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Financial Stability Report (m/m) at 12:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 13:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 135.28
• Prev Close: 135.65
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

According to the BoJ’s former chief economist, Inflation in Japan will be higher and longer than the Bank of Japan now expects, making an upward revision to the price forecast likely later this month. But the revision will not mean that a change in monetary policy is imminent. The Bank of Japan will deliver its latest quarterly forecast on July 21. Its yield curve control program has come under heavy criticism in recent weeks because of increased speculation of tightening.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 135.67, 134.83, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
• Resistance levels: 136.57

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. Buyer pressure in recent days has been increasing again. The MACD indicator has become positive, and the price forms a wide balance. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 135.67, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 136.57 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.07.05:

• – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2877
• Prev Close: 1.2858
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

Canadian manufacturing activity fell slightly in June as inflationary pressures and material shortages held back production, and firms became less optimistic about future production. The manufacturing index fell to its lowest level since June 2020 to 50.9 from 55.6 in May. Consumer expectations for inflation rose, along with concerns about food, gas, and rent prices. Businesses expect high inflation over a more extended period. Both surveys reinforce calls for a 75 basis point rate hike at the next Bank of Canada decision on July 13.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2847, 1.2781, 1.2701, 1.2616
• Resistance levels: 1.2914, 1.2957, 1.3045

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading in a wide corridor, a slight pressure from buyers prevails, and the MACD indicator does not show activity. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2847, but with confirmation. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2914, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2838 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.