Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 12

EUR/USD Gains as Fed Meeting Approaches

EUR/USD is showing signs of strengthening, currently trading around 1.1088 on Monday. The pair saw significant gains at the end of last week, driven by mounting speculation over the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The US dollar weakened in response to increasing expectations that the Fed might cut rates by 50 basis points in its forthcoming meeting.

The shift in market sentiment has been substantial, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut now at 45%, up from just 20% a week earlier. This anticipation has led to a decrease in US Treasury bond yields, further affecting the dollar’s strength. Additionally, US import prices fell more than expected in August, decreasing by 0.3%, and export prices dropped by 0.7%. A sentiment index from the University of Michigan also showed an improvement in annual inflation expectations in September.

Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB), which reduced its rate last week, continues to assert its independence. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the ECB operates free of political influence, responding to Italian demands for further rate reductions.

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled to start on Tuesday and conclude on Wednesday with a rate decision and commentary, is the focal point for markets this week. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, which could significantly impact the EUR/USD dynamics.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD market has established a consolidation range around 1.1088, extending down to 1.1073 and up to 1.1104. The market may potentially move downward to 1.1055 before possibly climbing to 1.1106, with a further stretch to 1.1128. The formation of a ‘Triangle’ technical pattern is considered likely. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which is below zero but trending upward.

A growth wave to 1.1100 has been completed on the H1 chart. The market is currently forming a consolidation range around 1.1088, with a corrective structure down to 1.1073 followed by an emerging growth structure towards 1.1106. After reaching this level, a decline to 1.1055 may be considered. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below 80 and heading towards 20, supports this potential downward movement.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

15 Sep

Forex Speculators push Japanese Yen bets higher for record 10-week gain

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 10th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & Japanese Yen

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (20,447 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (14,654 contracts), the US Dollar Index (781 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (578 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-18,585 contracts), the British Pound (-17,790 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,178 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-3,453 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-3,077 contracts), Bitcoin (-461 contracts) and with the Canadian Dollar (-409 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Forex Speculators push Japanese Yen bets higher for record 10-week gain

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the boost in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Japanese yen bets have continued their remarkable turnaround over the past couple of months with this week marking a tenth consecutive weekly gain.

This week’s increase in the speculator positioning was the second straight weekly rise by over +14,000 contracts and brings the total increase in speculator bets over the past ten weeks to a total of +239,993 contracts — the highest 10-week cumulative change on record. The yen speculator standing has now gone from a total of -184,223 contracts on July 2nd to a total standing this week at +55,770 contracts. This week’s standing also marks the most bullish level since October 4th of 2016.

The yen sentiment has been boosted by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) who is changing their interest rate policy from negative rates previously to a cautious increase of rates beginning with their recent July hike. According to Reuters, analysts are expecting the BOJ to increase their rates again by the end of the year.

The yen exchange rate versus the US dollar has benefited from a change in BOJ policy and has improved by approximately 15 percent from the low-point reached in July, according to this week’s closing prices. The yen rose this week by over 1 percent for a second consecutive weekly gain.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Australian Dollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the Australian Dollar (79 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The British Pound (77 percent), Bitcoin (61 percent) and the Swiss Franc (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (23 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (35 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently. The next lowest strength score is the Mexican Peso (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (47.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (45.5 percent)
EuroFX (55.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (62.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (76.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (84.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (93.9 percent)
Swiss Franc (57.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (56.5 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (57.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (78.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (84.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (34.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (40.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (44.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (23.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (3.9 percent)
Bitcoin (61.1 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (68.0 percent)

Canadian Dollar & Japanese Yen top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (57 percent) and the Japanese Yen (54 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The EuroFX (27 percent), the Swiss Franc (27 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (16 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-20 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (6.9 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (2.6 percent)
EuroFX (27.1 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (27.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-9.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-15.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (53.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (61.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (26.8 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (41.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (41.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (14.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (0.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (15.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.9 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-19.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (10.2 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-8.4 percent)
Bitcoin (9.8 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (11.6 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,210 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 781 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	66.0	24.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.5	61.5	8.5
– Net Position:	20,210	-17,979	-2,231
– Gross Longs:	32,116	11,949	1,916
– Gross Shorts:	11,906	29,928	4,147
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.1	62.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.9	0.5	-35.3

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 81,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -18,585 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 100,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.0	55.4	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.0	72.1	6.8
– Net Position:	81,433	-123,807	42,374
– Gross Longs:	192,821	411,082	92,555
– Gross Shorts:	111,388	534,889	50,181
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.0	42.9	66.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.1	-31.1	44.1

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 90,288 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -17,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108,078 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.2	25.7	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.0	65.1	9.3
– Net Position:	90,288	-107,278	16,990
– Gross Longs:	142,072	69,944	42,246
– Gross Shorts:	51,784	177,222	25,256
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	18.7	97.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.5	6.3	11.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 55,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 14,654 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,116 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.3	59.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.5	77.1	8.4
– Net Position:	55,770	-66,719	10,949
– Gross Longs:	98,894	223,698	42,728
– Gross Shorts:	43,124	290,417	31,779
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	53.8	-55.2	40.4

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,882 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.0	66.7	19.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.5	40.7	19.0
– Net Position:	-21,304	20,885	419
– Gross Longs:	8,082	53,642	15,706
– Gross Shorts:	29,386	32,757	15,287
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.7	33.6	79.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	26.8	-39.5	50.2

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,953 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -409 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	70.4	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	36.9	43.7	11.5
– Net Position:	-68,953	66,918	2,035
– Gross Longs:	23,773	176,814	30,986
– Gross Shorts:	92,726	109,896	28,951
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.1	43.7	36.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	57.1	-56.3	28.2

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -14,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,178 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	49.7	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.4	48.6	8.1
– Net Position:	-14,042	2,620	11,422
– Gross Longs:	74,259	114,426	30,094
– Gross Shorts:	88,301	111,806	18,672
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.8	21.0	85.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.6	-20.8	35.5

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	49.5	10.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.8	50.0	5.1
– Net Position:	-3,315	-347	3,662
– Gross Longs:	21,394	31,511	6,929
– Gross Shorts:	24,709	31,858	3,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	54.9	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	15.6	-26.2	79.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 27,026 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,479 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.9	58.2	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.7	70.9	3.5
– Net Position:	27,026	-24,212	-2,814
– Gross Longs:	62,614	110,666	3,879
– Gross Shorts:	35,588	134,878	6,693
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.7	57.3	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.9	20.4	-13.2

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -30,364 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 20,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -50,811 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.0	68.6	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	23.0	4.3
– Net Position:	-30,364	30,599	-235
– Gross Longs:	18,115	46,011	2,631
– Gross Shorts:	48,479	15,412	2,866
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.3	77.9	19.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-10.5	2.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -353 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -461 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 108 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	81.6	3.9	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	82.8	3.6	3.4
– Net Position:	-353	85	268
– Gross Longs:	22,969	1,097	1,225
– Gross Shorts:	23,322	1,012	957
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	61.1	66.9	19.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.8	-6.2	-9.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

12 Sep

Timing of the Dollar Meltdown

Source: Clive Maund (9/10/24)

Technical Analyst Clive Maund shares his thoughts on the current state of the U.S. Dollar and how it might impact the gold market.

Because it has such massive implications for just about everything, today we are going to review the charts for the dollar index.

Starting with the long-term 20-year chart, the first point to make is that, given the rampant money creation by the Fed and the grim economic and geopolitical outlook for the U.S., it is remarkable that it has held up as well as it has, which is believed to be largely due to debt servicing by horribly indebted foreign countries saddled with massive dollar debts.

However, the BRICS and the Global South are moving away from the dollar at an increasing pace. The U.S.’s huge debts, coupled with the Fed’s manic money creation, will completely destroy the dollar, which will end up like the currencies of Venezuela and Zimbabwe. So, returning to our chart, what is expected to happen is that the dollar breaks down below the support at 100 and plummets, with the first downside target being the support in the 88 – 90 area. However, there may be a near-term rally before this happens for reasons that we will see when we look at the dollar’s shorter-term charts.

On its 5-year chart, we can see that the dollar accelerated into a parabolic blowoff top in 2022 that is thought to mark the final high, the breakdown from which led to a large trading range forming, which has been going on for about 18 months now.

Normally, following a breakdown from such a parabolic blowoff top, a trading range of the type that has just formed is a consolidation that leads to renewed decline, and we can certainly see for fundamental reasons why this would be.

Over the past couple of months, the dollar has dropped back to quite strong support at the lower boundary of the range, which it arrived at in an oversold state with the 6-month chart that we will look at shortly suggesting some sort of rally soon off this support. However, over the longer term, it looks set to break below this support and drop hard. If this scenario eventuates, then it will present a golden opportunity to add to PM sector positions on a dip ahead of renewed advance that is expected to be powerful.

On the 6-month chart, we can see how the dollar has accelerated into a low at the support, where it bounced with its MACD breaking clear above its moving average in a manner that indicates that it has probably bottomed for now. It retreated back towards this support last week, with Friday’s candle suggesting that it is making a small Double Bottom.

It, therefore, looks likely that it will rally from here, although any such rally is not expected to get very far, probably no further than about 102, before the dollar reverses to the downside again and goes on to breach the support and drop hard to the next significant support in the 88 – 90 zone.

Gold has been added to this chart (and the others) and you can that it is looking a bit frail here after its recent runup. If a short-term rally in the dollar does occur and the PMs get knocked back more it will be regarded as a very good opportunity to buy or add to positions accross the sector.

Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE)

You may recall that a near-term top was called for the broad market in the BROAD US MARKETS update on August 30, and so it proved to be, and the example PM stock included in that update, Coeur Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE), has dropped back towards its 200-day moving average as predicted. If we do see a short-term dollar rally, it may, of course, synchronize with temporary risk-off conditions, meaning that the broad market is likely to drop further, and as a result, PM stocks could drop further, too, bringing Coeur down to a Buy zone near to its rising 200-day moving average and of course other PM stocks too.

At this juncture, we can expect the Fed to indulge in another binge of money creation that reverses the stock market back to the upside.

Important Disclosures:

Clive Maund: I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Sep

NZD/USD is looking for a reason to recover: external background may help

By RoboForex Analytical Department

NZD/USD is attempting to recover from yesterday’s decline on Thursday and is heading towards 0.6148. The pair came under downward pressure on 29 August, and since then its attempts to stabilise have not brought any tangible result. The ambiguous US inflation release has increased bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy very cautiously next week. This means a 25-basis-point interest rate cut.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already started its easing cycle, with a launch in August. At that time, the RBNZ cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first reduction in four years. The RBNZ is expected to lower borrowing costs at each of the two meetings scheduled for this year, with a 50-basis-point rate cut possible at one of these meetings.

The consensus forecast suggests that the cash rate will be 3.00% by the end of 2025, down from 5.25% now. As for the latest statistics, annual food inflation in New Zealand eased to 0.4% in August from the previous 0.6%. This is a good signal, enabling the RBNZ to maintain its global easing stance.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

The NZD/USD H4 chart shows that the market has completed a downward wave, reaching 0.6106. A corrective structure is forming today, aiming for 0.6150 (testing from below). The correction could extend to 0.6166. Subsequently, the price might decline to 0.6070, potentially continuing the trend towards the local target of 0.6050. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards.

The NZD/USD H1 chart shows that the market has formed a consolidation range around 0.6140 and extended it down to 0.6106. Today, the market is correcting the downward wave, with the target for a correction of at least 0.6157. Once the correction is complete, the downward wave could develop towards 0.6069. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is below 50 and pointing strictly towards 80. Subsequently, a decline to 20 is expected.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Sep

EUR/USD halted its decline: the market awaits US inflation data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

EUR/USD halted its decline near a four-week low at 1.1034 on Wednesday. The information flow currently appears congested. The market is awaiting today’s US inflation release for August and is keeping an eye on the upcoming political debates between the main US presidential nominees. In addition, yesterday, the Fed outlined a plan to increase the capital of large banks by 9%. The banking sector was disappointed by this, with the proposal immediately gaining many critics.

Despite the abundance of news and events ahead, none of them is likely to influence the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decision. The meeting is scheduled for next week. The main scenario suggests a 25-basis-point reduction in borrowing costs, with the likelihood of the scenario estimated at 67%.

As for inflation expectations, CPI could have decreased to 2.6% y/y in August from the previous 2.9%. The indicator is projected to increase by 0.2% month-over-month as in July. Core inflation could have remained at 3.2% y/y. This data appears rather moderate largely due to core prices remaining unchanged. This may mean that the trend towards easing inflationary pressures is not as strong as wished to be.

EUR/USD technical analysis

On the EUR/USD H4 chart, the market is forming a downward wave structure, aiming for 1.0985. The price could reach this target level today. Subsequently, a consolidation range is expected to develop, extending up to 1.1026 and down to 1.0960. A breakout below the 1.0960 level may be considered a signal for a continuation of the trend to 1.0818. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line below the zero level and pointing sharply downwards.

On the EUR/USD H1 chart, the market has completed a downward wave, reaching 1.1015, and today corrected towards 1.1049. The price is expected to decline to 1.0985. Subsequently, a consolidation range might form above this level, with the price expected to break below it. The third downward wave is forming, targeting 1.0818. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and poised for a decline to 20.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Sep

USDJPY pauses, but this is temporary

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USDJPY pair halted its decline around 142.98 on Monday. However, this pause in the yen’s rally should not be misleading, as it comes amid uncertainty surrounding the extent of the anticipated monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. The latest US employment report provided little information for adjusting forecasts of the Fed’s interest rate trajectory. Investors must assess fresh inflation data this week before drawing any fundamental conclusions.

Over the past week, the JPY strengthened by almost 3.0% against the US dollar. The USDJPY pair dropped to its annual low amid expectations of decisive action from the Bank of Japan. The BoJ is expected to raise rates by the end of the year, which will be supported by steady economic growth, wage increases, and ongoing inflationary pressure.

If the Bank of Japan’s monetary policymakers’ projections regarding macroeconomic aspects materialise, the central bank will be ready to adjust its monetary policy parameters more actively. Meanwhile, the latest data reflected weak GDP growth in Japan in Q2. The economy expanded by only 2.9% year-on-year, compared to the preliminary estimate of 3.1%.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY has formed a consolidation range around the 143.43 level. Due to recent news, the range has widened upwards to 144.00 and downwards to 141.76. Today, a rise towards the 143.43 level (testing from below) is possible, followed by a decline towards 141.70. Breaking this level could signal a continuation of the trend towards 139.70, with the potential for further development towards 137.77. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing sharply downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY completed a downward impulse towards 141.76 and a subsequent rise to 143.00. A new consolidation range has almost formed. Today, a breakout below the lower boundary of this range is likely, with the downward wave continuing towards 140.30 and potentially further towards 139.70. After reaching this level, a correction towards 143.43 is possible. This scenario is also technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, whose signal line is above 80 and pointing sharply downwards.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

07 Sep

Currency Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British Pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 3rd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by CAD, GBP & JPY

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as ten out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other one markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Canadian Dollar (41,458 contracts) with the British Pound (18,147 contracts), the Japanese Yen (15,248 contracts), the Australian Dollar (11,295 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (8,078 contracts), the EuroFX (7,180 contracts), the Swiss Franc (2,730 contracts), the Brazilian Real (2,152 contracts), the US Dollar Index (516 contracts) and with Bitcoin (274 contracts) also having a positive week.

The only currency seeing a decline in speculator bets was the Mexican Peso with a small reduction by -241 contracts on the week.

Speculators push Canadian Dollar, British pound & Yen bets higher for multiple weeks

Highlighting this week’s currency data roundup is the continued gains for the Canadian dollar, British pound and the Japanese yen.

The Canadian dollar speculative position continued to improve this week and rose for a fifth consecutive week. The total gain over the past 5-weeks is now +127,719 contracts after the speculative position had fallen to an all-time low on July 30th at a total of -196,263 contracts. The current CAD positioning remains bearish for a 57th consecutive week but the speculator bets this week sit at a total of -68,544 contracts which is the least bearish level since April 30th. The Canadian dollar exchange rate versus the US dollar dipped this week following four straight weeks of gains that has taken the CADUSD over its 200-day moving average.

The British pound sterling speculator contracts rose strongly again this week (+18,147 contracts) and increased for a third straight week. The overall bullish position standing is back over the +100,000 net contract level after falling below this level in the previous four weeks. The GBP speculator bets recently rose to an all-time most bullish level on record on July 23rd with a total of +142,183 contracts. The top four most bullish levels on record have been in the past few months after eclipsing the previous high of +98,366 contracts that took place way back in July of 2007. The pound sterling exchange rate against the US dollar has been on the uptrend with increases in three out of the past four weeks. Last week, the GBPUSD rose to the best level since March of 2022 above the 1.3280 threshold.

The Japanese yen speculator bets also continued to gain this week and have now advanced for nine straight weeks. The speculative positioning for the yen had fallen to the second most bearish level on July 2nd at a total of -184,223 contracts but since then has seen a sharp turnaround. Over the last nine weeks, a total of +225,339 net contracts have come off that bearish mark and flipped the overall positioning into a bullish level at this week’s standing of +41,116 contracts – the best level since early 2021. The yen exchange rate has risen for six out of the past nine weeks versus the US dollar and is up by over 12 percent in that time-frame.

Currencies Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & British Pound

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (100 percent) and the British Pound (85 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Australian Dollar (84 percent), Bitcoin (68 percent) and the EuroFX (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Brazilian Real (4 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the New Zealand Dollar (40 percent), the US Dollar Index (45 percent) and the Mexican Peso (46 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (45.5 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (44.4 percent)
EuroFX (62.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (59.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (84.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (76.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (100.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (93.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (56.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (57.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (38.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (84.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (74.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (40.4 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (24.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (46.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (46.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (3.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (1.8 percent)
Bitcoin (68.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (63.9 percent)

Japanese Yen & Canadian Dollar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Japanese Yen (66 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (42 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Swiss Franc (41 percent), the EuroFX (27 percent) and Bitcoin (12 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-19 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-15 percent), the New Zealand Dollar (-9 percent) and the Brazilian Real (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (2.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.8 percent)
EuroFX (27.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (29.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-15.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (65.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (78.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (41.2 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (51.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (41.7 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (10.1 percent)
Australian Dollar (0.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-25.5 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-9.1 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-40.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (-19.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-15.2 percent)
Brazilian Real (-8.4 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-8.0 percent)
Bitcoin (11.6 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (6.2 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 19,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 516 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,913 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	71.5	20.5	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.5	57.3	7.7
– Net Position:	19,429	-17,906	-1,523
– Gross Longs:	34,725	9,933	2,233
– Gross Shorts:	15,296	27,839	3,756
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.5	62.9	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	2.1	-24.2

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 100,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 92,838 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	54.4	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.7	73.5	5.9
– Net Position:	100,018	-141,548	41,530
– Gross Longs:	215,969	402,899	85,362
– Gross Shorts:	115,951	544,447	43,832
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.9	36.2	64.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	27.3	-30.6	40.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 108,078 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 18,147 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,931 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.3	24.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	66.9	9.4
– Net Position:	108,078	-120,955	12,877
– Gross Longs:	160,773	69,973	39,617
– Gross Shorts:	52,695	190,928	26,740
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.7	13.3	89.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.3	13.3	1.7

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 41,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 15,248 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25,868 net contracts.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.1	57.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	72.2	9.9
– Net Position:	41,116	-46,765	5,649
– Gross Longs:	91,791	189,291	38,134
– Gross Shorts:	50,675	236,056	32,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	65.8	-64.5	22.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,882 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,730 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.1	62.9	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.7	28.0	23.3
– Net Position:	-21,882	23,439	-1,557
– Gross Longs:	8,822	42,236	14,057
– Gross Shorts:	30,704	18,797	15,614
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	37.7	70.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.2	-50.7	49.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -68,544 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -110,002 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.3	69.7	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	45.5	10.6
– Net Position:	-68,544	62,013	6,531
– Gross Longs:	31,460	178,469	33,726
– Gross Shorts:	100,004	116,456	27,195
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.2	41.7	50.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	41.7	-43.9	40.0

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,864 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 11,295 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,159 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	40.9	14.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	44.1	8.0
– Net Position:	-7,864	-6,812	14,676
– Gross Longs:	87,118	87,254	31,865
– Gross Shorts:	94,982	94,066	17,189
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	84.0	14.5	94.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.8	-1.9	5.0

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -238 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,078 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,316 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	47.8	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.1	51.2	5.9
– Net Position:	-238	-2,156	2,394
– Gross Longs:	25,235	30,379	6,120
– Gross Shorts:	25,473	32,535	3,726
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.4	51.6	91.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	2.1	50.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 30,479 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -241 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,720 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.9	57.5	2.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	73.7	3.7
– Net Position:	30,479	-27,678	-2,801
– Gross Longs:	63,103	98,278	3,503
– Gross Shorts:	32,624	125,956	6,304
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.4	55.7	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.1	20.7	-27.3

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -50,811 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,152 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.2	60.9	18.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	68.4	20.9	3.0
– Net Position:	-50,811	36,778	14,033
– Gross Longs:	12,179	56,038	16,766
– Gross Shorts:	62,990	19,260	2,733
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.9 to 1	6.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.9	83.7	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.4	-5.2	81.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 108 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -166 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	86.9	3.7	4.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.5	5.0	3.1
– Net Position:	108	-351	243
– Gross Longs:	23,349	998	1,067
– Gross Shorts:	23,241	1,349	824
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.0	55.8	18.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.6	-13.6	-5.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

05 Sep

EUR/USD Maintains Neutral Stance Ahead of US Employment Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair remained stable around 1.1077 on Thursday morning, following steady growth in the previous session but still confined within a sideways channel. Investors are holding back and conserving their energy in anticipation of crucial employment data from the United States, which begins with today’s ADP private sector jobs report. Although the ADP report does not directly correlate with Friday’s highly anticipated Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report, it provides a general sense of market sentiment.

Additionally, the market will closely watch today’s weekly unemployment claims data release, especially given the Federal Reserve’s focused attention on employment indicators. These releases are expected to heighten EUR/USD volatility as the day progresses.

The spotlight will soon shift to Friday’s key employment metrics, including non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings for August. These indicators are pivotal ahead of the September Fed meeting. Robust employment data may support a minimal 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, whereas weaker labour market figures could heighten the possibility of a 50 basis point reduction.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The pair is currently consolidating around the 1.1065 level. The market may test up to 1.1107 today, which is seen as a correction phase in the context of a broader decline. Following this potential rise, a further decline to 1.1060 is anticipated. A break below this level could signal a continuation of the downtrend, potentially reaching 1.1016. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, EUR/USD continues to consolidate around 1.1065. A slight dip to 1.1056 might occur, followed by an extension towards 1.1107 as part of a corrective pattern. Once this correction phase is completed, the downward trend is expected to resume. The Stochastic oscillator, currently just above 20, suggests a potential rise to 80, indicating room for short-term upward movement before continuing thebroader bearish trend.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Sep

USDCAD: Tests resistance ahead of BoC decision

By ForexTime

USDCAD ended August ↓ 2.3%

BoC decision + US jobs report = volatility?

Traders fully priced in 25 bp cut by BoC this week

Bloomberg FX model: 74% – (1.3400 – 1.3675)

Key technical levels – 1.3550 & 1.3600

After tumbling over 2% in August, the USDCAD has kicked off the new month on a bullish note.

Prices jumped over 60 pips on Tuesday, testing key resistance at 1.3550 ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision on Wednesday.

USDCAD

The USDCAD’s recent upside could be based around a weaker Canadian Dollar. It is worth noting that the CAD has slipped against most G10 currencies this week thanks to lower oil prices and expectations around a BoC rate cut.

Looking at the charts, prices remain under pressure on the weekly charts with the 100 and 50-week SMA acting as key levels of resistance.

USDCAD

Nevertheless, a significant move may be on the horizon and here are 3 reasons why…

1) Bank of Canada rate decision

On Wednesday, September 4th, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce its rate decision.

Weak economic data from Canada have boosted expectations around the BoC cutting interest rates for the third time this year.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point BoC cut by September, another cut by October and one final cut by December!

Note: The latest jobs data from Canada will be published on Friday, September 6th. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 6.5% from 6.4% in the previous month while net change in employment is seen rising to 26.5k after declining by 2.8k in June.

Should the BoC move ahead with a rate cut in September and signal further cuts down the road, this could push the USDCAD higher.

An outcome where the central bank sounds less dovish than expected could strengthen the Canadian Dollar, pulling the USDCAD lower as a result.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the BoC rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 0.35% of declines of 0.1% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) Key US jobs report

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the major event this week is the US jobs data on Friday.

Given how investors may use this as a guide to how quick or slow the Fed will cut rates from September onwards, this data could rock global financial markets.

The US economy is expected to have created 165k new jobs in August with the unemployment rate ticking lower to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rising to 3.7% year-on-year compared to 3.6% in the previous month.

If the unemployment rate ticks lower to 4.2% and cools recession fears, this may end up boosting the USD – pushing the USDCAD higher.

A scenario where the unemployment rate remains at 4.3% or even higher could fuel recession fears – boosting bets of a 50 bp cut. Given how this is likely to weaken the USD, the USDCAD could end up tumbling.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis point Fed cut by September with a 34% probability of a 50 bp move.

Golden nugget: Over the past 12 months, the US jobs report has triggered upside moves as much as 0.4% of declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

USDCAD bulls could be handed more power if prices secure a solid daily close above 1.3550. Still, lagging indicators seem to be favour bears with prices still trading below the 50, 100 and 200-day SMA.

A solid breakout above 1.3550 may inspire an incline toward 1.3600 and 1.3677.

Should 1.3550 prove to be reliable resistance, this could see prices decline toward 1.3450 and 1.3400.

Bloomberg’s FX model points to a 75% chance that USDCAD will trade within the 1.3400 – 1.3675 range over the next one-week period.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

04 Sep

USD/JPY Sees Modest Rise Amid Anticipation of BoJ Policy Shift

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has slightly increased, rising to 145.95 on Wednesday morning. This movement marks a rebound from two-week lows, though it is still early to suggest a significant reversal in the trend due to the ongoing economic climate.

Market participants are cautious as they await crucial US employment market data for August, which is due later this week. These figures will likely substantially impact the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming decisions.

On the Japanese front, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its current policy stance but has signalled potential adjustments should economic projections align with actual outcomes. This cautious but responsive approach, including the possibility of a December interest rate hike, reflects the BoJ’s commitment to stability in the face of economic indicators.

Recent Japanese economic data has shown a slight improvement, with the manufacturing PMI inching up to 49.8 from 49.5, nearly reaching the critical threshold of 50.0 that differentiates contraction from expansion. This positive development suggests a potential stabilisation in the manufacturing sector, which could influence the USD/JPY forecast as market participants assess the implications for monetary policy and economic growth in Japan.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The H4 chart indicates a recent corrective move up to 147.20, followed by a downward wave targeting 144.11. Should this level be reached, a corrective movement to 145.66 could occur, testing it from below. A further decline to 144.11 is conceivable, with a potential continuation to 141.80 and down to 137.77. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with the signal line positioned above zero but trending downward sharply.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY executed a downward impulse to 145.66 and has since been consolidating around this level. A break below the consolidation range could initiate the continuation of the downward trend towards 144.11. After reaching this target, a retest of 145.66 may be anticipated. This bearish scenario aligns with the Stochastic oscillator’s readings, where the signal line is just above 50 but indicates a downward movement.

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