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GBP/USD: Friday correction after surge

On Friday, the GBP/USD pair declined to 1.3401 after strong gains earlier in the week. The previous rally was triggered by July business activity data, which showed the best performance in a year, mainly supported by the services sector.

The release came alongside fresh UK inflation statistics, which briefly lifted sterling. However, economists noted that the price acceleration was largely driven by airfare increases rather than broad-based inflationary pressure, meaning its effect on the Bank of England policy remains limited.

Money markets are currently pricing in less than a 50% chance of a rate cut before the end of 2025. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut this year stands at only 36%, while investors do not expect the next move in interest rates before spring 2026. Since the start of 2025, the pound has already gained almost 8% against the US dollar.

Technical analysis of GBP/USD

The market built a consolidation range around 1.3472 and broke it to the downside. A decline to 1.3350 is possible, followed by a correction bounce back to 1.3472. The downtrend may later extend to 1.3270. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line remains below zero and is pointing sharply downwards, confirming bearish momentum.

On the H1 timeframe, the market nearly completed a corrective wave at 1.3594 before starting a new downward movement. A decline to 1.3350 is expected, after which a short-term pullback to 1.3472 is likely. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view: its signal line is below 50, moving downwards towards 20, indicating further downside pressure.

Summary

After a strong rally, GBP/USD entered a corrective phase. Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook with 1.3350 and 1.3270 as key downside targets, while 1.3472 may serve as a corrective rebound level.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Aug

EUR/USD Volatility Rises, But Fails to Drive Direction

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1646, consolidating after the previous session’s volatility. The market is stabilising following the recent US dollar rally, driven by expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Investors remain cautious before Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, seeking clarity on interest rate prospects and any potential adjustments to expectations of rapid monetary easing.

Futures currently assign an 82% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, down from last week’s 94%. The minutes of the July Fed meeting revealed that policymakers remain more concerned with inflation risks than labour market conditions. Tariffs, however, continue to divide opinion among officials.

In Washington, US President Donald Trump urged Fed Board Member Lisa Cook to resign amid allegations of mortgage fraud and reiterated his demand for lower interest rates. With Powell’s term expiring in May, Trump is actively considering potential successors. As expected, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent once again advocated for a more aggressive 50-basis-point cut in September.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD

On the H4 chart, the market is consolidating around 1.1656. A downward breakout is anticipated, targeting 1.1597, with the potential for further decline to 1.1582. The first target in the next downward wave is set at 1.1455. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line lies below zero and is pointing sharply downwards, indicating strong bearish pressure.

On the H1 chart, the pair completed a downward wave to 1.1622, followed by a correction to 1.1670, effectively defining the consolidation range. A downward breakout towards 1.1597 is possible today, followed by a rebound to 1.1645. Beyond this, the pair may resume a decline to 1.1455, with the wave potentially extending to 1.1430. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this bearish scenario: its signal line is below the 50 level and is trending sharply towards 20, signalling continued downside momentum.

Summary

The EUR/USD pair remains directionless despite heightened volatility as traders await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Technical signals point to a continuation of the bearish trend, with key downside levels at 1.1597 and 1.1455, while any rebounds are likely to remain short-lived corrections.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

20 Aug

USDJPY declines: market unfazed by weak Japanese statistics

By RoboForex Analytical Department

On Wednesday, the USDJPY pair consolidated near 147.50, extending the previous session’s decline, despite weak Japanese foreign trade figures.

Exports dropped by 2.6% y/y in July, marking the steepest decline in over four years, largely due to pressure from US tariffs. Imports fell by 7.5%, the fourth drop since the beginning of the year. However, the data still came in better than expectations, which pointed to a 10.4% decline.

In contrast, equipment orders — a proxy for capital investment — rose unexpectedly in June, following two months of contraction, signalling some resilience in corporate spending.

Meanwhile, investors remain uncertain about the Bank of Japan’s future steps. Governor Kazuo Ueda maintains a cautious stance, highlighting that core inflation is still below the 2.0% target.

The yen has also seen temporary demand as a safe-haven asset, supporting its appreciation.

Technical analysis of USDJPY

On the H4 USDJPY chart, the market continues to develop a downward wave towards 146.14. This level is expected to be reached today. A temporary rebound to 147.30 cannot be ruled out. Following that, we anticipate a further decline to 145.45, with the potential for the trend to extend to 144.30. The target remains local. This bearish scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, indicating ongoing downside momentum.

On the H1 chart, the market is shaping a downward wave structure towards 146.12. Today, we are considering a short-term move to 147.12, followed by a potential growth link to 147.60. After that, the market is likely to decline again to 146.60, and further to 146.12, continuing the bearish trend. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this view, with its signal line below the 50 level, directed sharply towards 20, reflecting a strong bearish bias.

Summary

Despite weak trade statistics, USDJPY is falling amid resilient investment data and growing demand for the yen as a safe-haven. Technical indicators point towards a continued downward trend, with key targets at 146.14, 145.45, and 144.30, while any rebounds are likely to remain temporary.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

17 Aug

Speculators push Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 12th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brazilian Real & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just four out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other seven markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (14,984 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (783 contracts), Bitcoin (759 contracts) and the New Zealand Dollar (146 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-10,657 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,772 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-4,345 contracts), the British Pound (-5,790 contracts), the Mexican Peso (-6,816 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-666 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-528 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Brazilian Real Bets rise to 5-Week High, US Dollar Index Bets edge up

Leading the speculator changes this week for the major currency markets was the Brazilian Real, which saw a gain of almost 15,000 speculator contracts on the week. This was the second straight week of gains for the Brazilian Real and the third time out of the last four weeks that speculator bets have increased. Overall, the Real position is at +39,582 contracts, which is the best mark over the last five weeks. The Real has been at least +20,000 or above speculator contracts for the last 24 weeks in a row.

The Brazilian Real exchange rate versus the U.S. Dollar rose for a second straight week this week and continues to be in an uptrend after falling to a record low to end December. Overall, for the year of 2025, the Brazilian Real is up by over 12% while since the December bottoming, the Brazilian Real is up by over 16.65%.

Next up, the U.S. Dollar Index saw a small edge higher in their weekly speculator bets. The U.S. Dollar Index speculator positions rose by 783 contracts this week following two weeks of decreases. At the moment, the U.S. Dollar Index standing is at -6,247 contracts, and overall the USD positioning has now been in a negative or bearish level for nine consecutive weeks with a speculator strength score of just 1.8% (out of a 0 to 100 range), illustrating the current weakness of the U.S. Dollar.

In the exchange rate markets, the U.S. Dollar Index fell for a second straight week and closed the week at 97.695 exchange rate. The dollar had rebounded all the way up to the 100 level a couple of weeks ago but found resistance and got pushed back down. Overall, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Dollar Index is down by over 12%.

British Pound Sterling led weekly market prices

The major currency market prices did not see much movement this week with no currency rising or falling by over 1%. The leader in price gains was the British Pound Sterling which was higher by 0.78% on the week. The Euro came in next with a rise of 0.50%, followed by the Brazilian Real at 0.44%. Bitcoin was higher by 0.42%, the Japanese Yen was slightly higher by 0.35%, followed by the Swiss Franc at 0.20%.

On the downside, the Australian Dollar was slightly lower at -0.23%, followed by the US Dollar Index, which saw a dip by -0.33%. The Canadian Dollar was at -0.41%, the New Zealand Dollar at -0.43%, and the biggest loser in the week was the Mexican Peso at -0.77%.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Brazilian Real & EuroFX

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Brazilian Real (77 percent) and the EuroFX (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Japanese Yen (71 percent), Mexican Peso (60 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (2 percent), the British Pound (14 percent) and the Australian Dollar (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (1.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (0.0 percent)
EuroFX (72.7 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (72.9 percent)
British Pound Sterling (13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (16.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (71.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (44.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (45.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (48.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (13.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (17.0 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (59.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (58.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (60.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (63.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (76.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.5 percent)
Bitcoin (37.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (20.9 percent)

Bitcoin, Peso & EuroFX top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (21 percent), the Mexican Peso (3 percent) and the EuroFX (3 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-34 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-15 percent), Australian Dollar (-13 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-12 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-4.6 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.3 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (1.8 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-33.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-32.2 percent)
Japanese Yen (-14.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-8.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-12.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-11.9 percent)
Australian Dollar (-12.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-10.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-8.8 percent)
Mexican Peso (3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (8.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.3 percent)
Bitcoin (21.5 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (14.0 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,247 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.9	37.4	13.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	62.4	20.5	10.1
– Net Position:	-6,247	5,122	1,125
– Gross Longs:	12,729	11,370	4,202
– Gross Shorts:	18,976	6,248	3,077
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.8	96.4	45.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.6	0.0	26.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 115,431 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.9	55.5	11.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.9	75.8	5.4
– Net Position:	115,431	-167,063	51,632
– Gross Longs:	246,299	458,037	96,093
– Gross Shorts:	130,868	625,100	44,461
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.7	24.3	83.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-2.2	-3.2

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -39,093 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,790 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,303 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	50.5	14.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	52.2	34.1	12.4
– Net Position:	-39,093	35,517	3,576
– Gross Longs:	73,736	109,217	30,321
– Gross Shorts:	112,829	73,700	26,745
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	78.6	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.5	32.9	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 74,234 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,006 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.9	41.9	10.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	63.0	10.1
– Net Position:	74,234	-73,895	-339
– Gross Longs:	164,693	147,170	35,172
– Gross Shorts:	90,459	221,065	35,511
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.1	32.3	43.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.6	19.4	-53.9

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -28,043 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,377 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.6	75.5	16.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.4	34.2	22.7
– Net Position:	-28,043	33,224	-5,181
– Gross Longs:	6,091	60,689	13,086
– Gross Shorts:	34,134	27,465	18,267
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.1	53.7	56.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.5	18.7	-31.0

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -90,077 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -10,657 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -79,420 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.5	73.6	10.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	50.2	31.3	12.1
– Net Position:	-90,077	93,571	-3,494
– Gross Longs:	20,898	162,833	23,352
– Gross Shorts:	110,975	69,262	26,846
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.2	52.8	34.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	14.0	-17.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -87,905 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,345 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,560 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.0	66.8	14.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.3	17.6	11.9
– Net Position:	-87,905	84,233	3,672
– Gross Longs:	25,631	114,396	24,097
– Gross Shorts:	113,536	30,163	20,425
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	3.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.9	80.1	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.6	10.9	-1.1

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,687 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 146 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,833 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	45.9	10.2
– Net Position:	-4,687	5,799	-1,112
– Gross Longs:	11,160	27,937	3,806
– Gross Shorts:	15,847	22,138	4,918
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.0	40.7	39.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.2	13.0	-34.7

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 61,239 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 68,055 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.4	37.2	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	72.8	1.6
– Net Position:	61,239	-64,848	3,609
– Gross Longs:	106,539	67,876	6,499
– Gross Shorts:	45,300	132,724	2,890
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	40.9	42.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.4	-2.6	-9.0

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 39,582 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 14,984 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,598 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	34.7	4.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	76.4	0.8
– Net Position:	39,582	-43,069	3,487
– Gross Longs:	59,388	35,788	4,287
– Gross Shorts:	19,806	78,857	800
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	5.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.7	22.0	40.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	8.1	14.1

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,501 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	84.2	4.9	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	86.8	4.5	3.6
– Net Position:	-742	118	624
– Gross Longs:	23,438	1,371	1,624
– Gross Shorts:	24,180	1,253	1,000
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.0	59.2	69.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.5	-26.4	8.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

15 Aug

USD/JPY Declines as Yen Regains Strength

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair dropped to 147.19 on Friday, clawing back losses from the previous session. The move followed stronger-than-expected GDP data and rising speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could hike interest rates.

Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3% in Q2, up from 0.1% in Q1, matching forecasts. The growth was primarily driven by net exports, which contributed 0.3 percentage points, despite pressure from US tariffs.

The yen drew further support from remarks by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested the BoJ is falling behind in tackling inflation. Market pressure is also mounting on the central bank to abandon its inflation target—currently tied to domestic demand and wage growth—which could limit its ability to tighten monetary policy.

However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a cautious stance, emphasising that core inflation remains below the 2% target.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

On the H4 chart, USD/JPY continues its downward trajectory, eyeing 146.14—a level likely to be tested today. A rebound to 147.30 is possible before another decline towards 145.45, with further downside potential to 144.30. This scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains below zero and pointing sharply downward.

H1 Chart:

On the H1 chart, the pair is forming a descending wave structure, targeting 146.16. A corrective bounce to 147.30 may follow before the downtrend potentially resumes towards 145.45. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending firmly downward.

Conclusion

The yen’s rebound reflects improving economic data and shifting BoJ rate expectations, while technical indicators suggest further downside for USD/JPY in the near term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Aug

USD/JPY Gains Ground as Market Favouring Risk Appetite

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair climbed to 148.00 on Wednesday, with the yen relinquishing its earlier gains as a rally in global risk assets dampened demand for the safe-haven currency.

The move followed the release of US inflation data, which bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month.

In Japan, manufacturing sentiment improved for the second consecutive month in August, supported by a trade agreement with Washington. The US reduced tariffs on Japanese cars and other goods to 15% in exchange for a $550 billion investment package from Tokyo.

Meanwhile, producer price growth slowed to an 11-month low in July, reflecting pressure on domestic firms from higher US tariffs.

Monetary policy uncertainty persists, with Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers divided on the timing and pace of future rate hikes. Some officials advocate maintaining an accommodative stance, citing risks to the central bank’s economic forecasts.

Currently, capital markets show little appetite for safe-haven assets, traditionally a role filled by the yen. Doubts over the BoJ’s policy direction further undermine the currency’s appeal.

Technical Analysis: USD/JPY

H4 Chart:

The USD/JPY pair continues its corrective wave towards 148.60. A pullback to 147.52 is expected today, after which another upswing to 148.60 may materialise. Once this wave exhausts, a decline towards 146.40 is anticipated. This scenario is technically validated by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above zero and trending upwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair has entered a consolidation phase around 148.00. A dip to 147.50 is likely today, potentially followed by an extension towards 148.65. The Stochastic oscillator supports this view, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downward.

Conclusion

The USD/JPY remains buoyed by risk-on sentiment, though technical indicators suggest near-term volatility is likely. Traders will monitor BoJ policy signals and US economic data for further direction.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

12 Aug

EUR/USD Under Pressure All Eyes on US Inflation Data

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair dipped to 1.1620 on Tuesday following sharp swings in the previous session. Investors are bracing for the release of US inflation data, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

The July CPI is forecast to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in June, while the annual rate is expected to climb for a third consecutive month to 2.8%. The core index is expected to remain steady at 0.3% month-on-month.

Despite persistent inflationary pressures, markets are pricing in a near-90% probability of a Fed rate cut in September.

On the trade front, President Donald Trump has extended the truce with China by another 90 days to allow further negotiations. Another key focus is Trump’s upcoming meeting with the Russian president on Friday, where discussions are expected to focus on a ceasefire agreement.

Aside from the US inflation figures, traders are awaiting the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index for August, which is projected to rise to 30.0 points, up from 28.1 previously. Later in the day, Fed officials are scheduled to speak, potentially offering further clues on monetary policy.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD is currently consolidating near the top of its corrective phase. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave, targeting 1.1520, with potential for an extended decline towards 1.1343. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, where the signal line remains above zero but is pointing sharply downwards.

H1 Chart:

The pair has completed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679, effectively setting a consolidation range. Today, traders should watch for a downside breakout, potentially initiating a fifth downward wave towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) could be followed by further declines to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator reinforces this outlook, with its signal line below 80 and trending downwards towards 20.

Conclusion

With US inflation data in focus, the EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside. A break below 1.1611 could accelerate selling pressure, while any surprises in the CPI figures may prompt a reassessment of Fed rate expectations.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Aug

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 5th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real

The COT currency market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other nine markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (11,377 contracts) with the Brazilian Real (676 contracts) also seeing a small positive week.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-21,275 contracts), the EuroFX (-7,400 contracts), the Japanese Yen (-7,237 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-5,466 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,343 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-2,987 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,874 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,742 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-493 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Mexican Peso Speculator Bets rise to 3-Month High, British Pound Bets drop

Highlighting the currency speculator positioning this week, the Mexican peso saw the most bullish rise through August 5th. This was the third straight week the Peso has seen improving speculator sentiment, and the fifth time out of the last six weeks speculator positions have risen for the Peso. This increase in sentiment has brought the Peso positions to their highest level in 13 weeks, with the current standing now at a total of +68,055 contracts.

Peso pricing against the US Dollar this week rose by approximately 1.55%. Over the last 30 days, the Peso is up by 1.34%, while over the last 90 days, the Peso is higher by 10%.

On the downside, the British Pound Sterling speculator positions fell sharply for the fourth straight week. Overall, the British Pound speculator positions have now fallen in seven out of the past eight weeks, for a total decline over that time by -84,937 contracts. These speculator reductions have taken the overall speculator position from +42,857 contracts on June 17th to this week’s level of -33,303 contracts. The overall standing has now been in a negative or bearish position for two consecutive weeks, marking the first bearish level since February of this year.

Denting the GBP’s speculator sentiment was the Bank of England’s interest rate reduction this week that took off 25 basis points. It was the fifth rate reduction since last August and brings the interest rate to 4%.

Prices this week: Bitcoin leads with 2.82% Gain

Overall, Bitcoin saw the highest weekly change with a gain of almost 3% over the last five days. Over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up by nearly 40%.

The Brazilian Real rose by 2.32% this week, followed by the Peso. The British Pound Sterling rose close to 1.5% for the week, while the Australian Dollar saw a higher exchange rate by just about 1%. The New Zealand Dollar increased by 0.68%. The Euro was higher by 0.63%. Rounding out the gaining currencies was the Canadian Dollar, with a quarter of a percent gain on the week.

Losing ground this week was the Japanese Yen, which fell about a quarter percent. The Swiss Franc fell by 0.39%, and the US Dollar index was down by half a percent on the week.

Currencies Data:

Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Japanese Yen & Euro

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Euro (73 percent) and the Japanese Yen (73 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (65 percent), Mexican Peso (63 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the US Dollar Index (0 percent), the British Pound (17 percent) and the Australian Dollar (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (0.0 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (6.4 percent)
EuroFX (72.9 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (75.7 percent)
British Pound Sterling (16.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.7 percent)
Japanese Yen (73.3 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (75.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (45.4 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (52.2 percent)
Canadian Dollar (52.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
Australian Dollar (17.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (20.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (58.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (62.0 percent)
Mexican Peso (63.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (57.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (64.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.0 percent)
Bitcoin (20.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (31.3 percent)

Bitcoin & Mexican Peso top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bitcoin (14 percent) and the Mexican Peso (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies.

The British Pound (-32 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-16 percent), Japanese Yen (-14 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-13 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-2.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-2.6 percent)
EuroFX (1.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (8.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-32.2 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-26.1 percent)
Japanese Yen (-13.8 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-11.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (-13.0 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-8.1 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-11.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-4.5 percent)
Australian Dollar (-7.8 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-8.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-0.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (8.5 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-0.7 percent)
Brazilian Real (-16.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-22.5 percent)
Bitcoin (14.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (16.4 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of -7,030 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,156 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.9	39.4	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	61.3	21.6	9.6
– Net Position:	-7,030	5,365	1,665
– Gross Longs:	11,399	11,847	4,540
– Gross Shorts:	18,429	6,482	2,875
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	97.1	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.2	-2.9	32.4

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 115,959 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,400 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 123,359 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.2	55.4	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	75.4	5.5
– Net Position:	115,959	-163,545	47,586
– Gross Longs:	247,357	453,569	92,215
– Gross Shorts:	131,398	617,114	44,629
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.9	25.5	74.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.8	0.3	-11.8

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of -33,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -21,275 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,028 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	52.8	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.0	37.0	13.9
– Net Position:	-33,303	32,643	660
– Gross Longs:	65,635	108,854	29,306
– Gross Shorts:	98,938	76,211	28,646
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.5	77.4	63.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-32.2	31.7	-18.9

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of 82,006 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 89,243 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.5	40.5	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	66.4	9.5
– Net Position:	82,006	-87,341	5,335
– Gross Longs:	160,258	136,734	37,362
– Gross Shorts:	78,252	224,075	32,027
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.9	56.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.8	15.2	-22.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,377 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,343 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,034 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.5	75.8	15.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.8	34.3	22.3
– Net Position:	-27,377	33,113	-5,736
– Gross Longs:	6,806	60,532	12,062
– Gross Shorts:	34,183	27,419	17,798
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.4	53.5	54.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.0	20.1	-25.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -79,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,987 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.0	72.7	10.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	47.9	33.2	12.9
– Net Position:	-79,420	84,877	-5,457
– Gross Longs:	23,589	156,289	22,218
– Gross Shorts:	103,009	71,412	27,675
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	2.2 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	49.6	28.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	14.6	-23.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -83,560 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,466 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -78,094 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	67.3	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	65.6	17.0	12.7
– Net Position:	-83,560	82,545	1,015
– Gross Longs:	23,988	110,361	21,761
– Gross Shorts:	107,548	27,816	20,746
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	4.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.0	79.1	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.8	7.2	-2.8

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,091 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	57.7	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.1	44.9	10.6
– Net Position:	-4,833	6,159	-1,326
– Gross Longs:	11,085	27,755	3,780
– Gross Shorts:	15,918	21,596	5,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.9	41.1	36.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	11.3	-30.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of 68,055 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,377 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,678 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	59.7	36.0	3.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.1	76.7	1.7
– Net Position:	68,055	-71,691	3,636
– Gross Longs:	105,231	63,351	6,628
– Gross Shorts:	37,176	135,042	2,992
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	63.5	37.4	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.5	-8.2	-4.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 24,598 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 676 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.4	36.7	4.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.8	67.8	1.1
– Net Position:	24,598	-27,830	3,232
– Gross Longs:	51,209	32,730	4,179
– Gross Shorts:	26,611	60,560	947
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	4.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.5	34.3	39.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.3	16.3	-1.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,501 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -493 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,008 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	83.6	6.0	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	89.0	1.7	4.2
– Net Position:	-1,501	1,195	306
– Gross Longs:	23,039	1,660	1,460
– Gross Shorts:	24,540	465	1,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	83.2	53.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-11.1	-8.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

08 Aug

EUR/USD Rises as the Dollar Struggles Under Tariff Pressures and Fed Uncertainty

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Friday, climbing to 1.1657, buoyed by expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and growing concerns over the economic impact of new US tariffs.

Recent data revealed that jobless claims exceeded forecasts this week, further signalling a softening labour market following last week’s lacklustre employment report.

On the political front, attention remains fixed on potential shifts within the Fed. US President Donald Trump has nominated Stephen Miran, head of the Council of Economic Advisers, to replace Adriana Kugler on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Meanwhile, reports suggest Christopher Waller is emerging as a leading candidate for Fed Chair. These developments have reinforced market expectations of an imminent rate cut as early as September.

Adding to the dollar’s woes, new US retaliatory tariffs, ranging from 10% to 41%, came into effect at midnight on Thursday. This has stoked fears of economic headwinds, further dampening sentiment towards the greenback.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD

H4 Chart:

The EUR/USD saw a corrective move to 1.1698, followed by consolidation near the top of this correction. A break below 1.1611 could trigger a downward wave towards 1.1520, with potential for further declines to 1.1343. The MACD indicator supports this bearish scenario: its signal line remains above zero but has exited the histogram zone, suggesting a pullback towards lower levels.

H1 Chart:

The pair formed a downward impulse to 1.1611, followed by a rebound to 1.1679. The current consolidation phase appears set for a downward breakout, potentially initiating a fifth wave of decline towards 1.1520. A brief retest of 1.1611 (from below) may follow before another drop to 1.1444, with an eventual target of 1.1343. The Stochastic oscillator corroborates this view, with its signal line below 50 and trending sharply downward towards 20.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD remains under upward pressure amid speculation about the Fed and concerns over tariffs, but technical indicators suggest a near-term bearish correction is likely.

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07 Aug

Pound Under Pressure Ahead of Bank of England Meeting

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The GBP/USD pair climbed to 1.3355 on Thursday as markets braced for today’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting. Traders are closely watching two key factors: the voting split among Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members and any signals regarding future rate moves.

The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.00%. However, there is speculation that some members, such as Swati Dingra or Alan Taylor, could push for a more aggressive 50 bps reduction, as seen in May. Should this occur, particularly if accompanied by a shift away from the BoE’s usual cautious tone, the pound could come under significant selling pressure.

Currently, markets have largely priced in a quarter-point cut. Yet, uncertainty remains around the future path of interest rates. While UK inflation remains elevated at 3.6%, well above the 2% target, the economy is weakening, and the labour market is showing signs of strain.

The baseline scenario suggests the BoE will maintain a gradual, data-dependent approach, with potential quarterly cuts. However, any deviation, such as a more aggressive voting split or dovish guidance, could significantly shift market sentiment.

Technical Analysis: GBP/USD

H4 Chart:

The GBP/USD pair has retraced to 1.3366 in a technical correction. A fifth downward wave towards 1.2942 is likely, potentially followed by a corrective rebound to 1.3366. This outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line hovering near zero, signalling that downside momentum may soon resume.

H1 Chart:

A corrective wave is forming following the recent decline. The pair is currently consolidating around 1.3273 –a break above this range could see a push towards 1.3377. However, upon reaching this area, a fresh decline towards 1.3160 is anticipated. A breakdown below this would open the path to 1.2942. This bearish scenario is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line below 80 and trending sharply down towards 20.

Conclusion

The pound remains vulnerable ahead of the BoE’s decision, with risks skewed towards further weakness if the central bank adopts a more dovish stance. Technically, the setup points to a resumption of the downtrend, with key levels at 1.3160 and 1.2942 in focus.

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