InvestMacro

By George Prior 

With 1.7 billion people having no access to basic financial services, the G20 summit starting this week has a golden opportunity to address financial inclusion and potentially lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.

This is the call-to-arms demand from deVere Group’s founder Nigel Green as 40 leaders of the world’s richest and most powerful nations descend on New Delhi, India, for the critical two-day event.

Financial inclusion refers to the availability and equality of opportunities to access and use financial services. These services include banking, credit, insurance, and savings facilities.

Nigel Green comments: “In our ever more interconnected global society, it is remarkable that a substantial segment of the world’s population still lacks adequate access to banking services or is underserved by them.

As data from the World Bank shows, around 1.7 billion adults across the globe currently lack any kind of fundamental financial services, with the majority of these individuals living in nations classified as low- and middle-income.

“Enhancing financial inclusion serves as a powerful instrument in the fight against poverty.
“When individuals can access financial services, they can effectively save, make investments, and safeguard themselves from unexpected economic shocks and financial setbacks.

“Consequently, this newfound capability enables them to break free from the cycle of poverty and enhance their quality of life. It can be truly life changing.”

Financial inclusion also serves as a catalyst for economic growth through the encouragement of entrepreneurship and the nurturing of small businesses.

“When both individuals and small enterprises gain entry to credit and other financial assets, they become capable of making investments in their businesses, generating employment opportunities, and encouraging economic progress,” says the deVere founder.

Another critical focus on the G20 agenda is the worldwide pursuit of gender equality, and financial inclusion can prove pivotal in achieving this goal.

Nigel Green continues: “Women, especially in developing nations, frequently encounter substantial obstacles when attempting to access financial services. By giving priority to financial inclusion, we can work to close this gender gap, thereby promoting economic empowerment for women and other underserved groups.”

He concludes: “By addressing the critical issue of financial inclusion, the G20 has a golden opportunity to potentially help lift hundreds of millions out of poverty, encourage economic growth, and promote gender equality.

“By acting on this issue, the G20 leaders will act to immeasurably contribute to global economic stability and prosperity.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.56%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.08% yesterday. The NASDAQ Stock Index (US100) was more resilient to the decline, helped by a 7% gain in Airbnb stock and a 4% gain in Tesla stock. Airbnb jumped on the back of its inclusion in the S&P 500 Index this month, while Tesla rose after China’s August auto shipments rose more than 30% m/m.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday provided support for the dollar after factory orders fell by 2.1% m/m in July, the biggest decline in 8 months, but stronger than expectations of a 2.5% m/m decline. FOMC representative Waller’s comments on Tuesday were dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar as he signaled his support for a pause in Fed rate hikes. But weaker-than-expected economic news from China and the eurozone on Tuesday boosted relative optimism about the US economy and the dollar.

The Bank of Canada will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The latest inflation data for June showed a marked slowdown in both base and core inflation, but July’s figures show some resilience, with overall inflation rising to 3.3% y/y from 2.8% and core inflation holding steady at 3.2%. While there is only a 20% chance of any action being taken today, the probability of another 25 bps rate hike before the end of the year is around 50%.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.34%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.34%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.22%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.20%. Economic news from the Eurozone on Tuesday proved dovish for ECB policy. The Eurozone Composite PMI for August was revised down by 0.3 to 46.7 from the previously announced 47.0, the sharpest rate of contraction in 3 years. But July’s Eurozone producer price index (which displays the rate of inflation between factories and plants) fell to minus 7.6% y/y from minus 3.4% y/y in June, the sharpest decline in 14 years.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia said it would maintain a unilateral 1.0 million BPD oil production cut through December. The move will keep Saudi oil production at around 9 million BPD, the lowest level in three years.

The World Gold Council (WGC) said in its latest report that Australian investors have switched to fixed-income assets amid economic uncertainty. The outlook for fixed-income assets is now threatened by inflationary pressures. The report recommends considering gold as a long-term strategic asset alongside bonds.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.30%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.77%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 2.06%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended Tuesday negative by 0.06%.

According to Japan’s Central Bank official Hajime Takata, Japan is seeing the first signs of a change in the established view that wages and inflation will not rise much, indicating that conditions are forming for a gradual withdrawal of large-scale stimulus. Takata emphasized the need to maintain ultra-soft monetary policy for the time being, as the slowdown in global economic growth is adding to uncertainty about whether Japan can sustainably meet the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% inflation target. However, he also noted that there are signs of a change in corporate pricing and wage-setting behavior, which is driving up prices not only for goods but also for services, indicating that inflationary pressures are intensifying. Japan’s core inflation reached 3.1% in July, surpassing the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the 16th consecutive month.

Australian GDP grew by 0.4% in quarterly terms, in line with the previous quarter’s pace and economists’ estimates. This result is likely to boost the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) confidence that it can provide a soft landing for the economy. However, Goldman Sachs forecasts that growth in the Australian economy will weaken as households come under pressure from rising interest rates and prices.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,496.83 −18.94 (−0.42%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,641.97 −195.74 (−0.56%)

DAX (DE40)  15,771.71 −53.14 (−0.34%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,437.93 −14.83 (−0.20%)

USD Index  104.80 −0.57 (−0.57%)

• – Australia GDP (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – UK Monetary Policy Report Hearings at 16:15 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Service PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Canada BoC Rate Statement (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By JustMarkets

The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the bank holiday.

Canada’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending slowing sharply and residential investment falling. Combined with a cooling labor market, this should ease the Bank of Canada’s inflation concerns and keep interest rates unchanged at its September 6 meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.10%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.24%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.35%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative by 0.16% yesterday.

Growth in the European construction sector is slowing due to weaker demand. High interest rates and soaring construction costs have sharply reduced demand for new buildings in Europe. So far, ongoing projects and increased focus on sustainability have kept construction volumes down, but analysts expect the construction sector to start to decline sharply in 2024.

Switzerland’s GDP was flat in the second quarter, but the economy slowed by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter. The country’s industry has been hit by the slowdown in the global economy. Although inflationary pressures continue to ease, the Swiss economy is likely to remain sluggish over the next few quarters. The slowdown is primarily due to the decline in manufacturing (-2.9% for the quarter), with cyclical industries suffering from the slowdown in the global economy. In addition, the chemical-pharmaceutical industry is contracting after several years of strong growth. This has a negative impact on Swiss merchandise exports (-1.2% for the quarter). At the same time, the construction sector is suffering from rising interest rates. Investment in construction declined over the quarter (-0.8%), as did investment in capital goods (-3.7%). Against this background, the outcome of the SNB monetary policy meeting scheduled for September 21 remains uncertain. It is possible that the SNB will decide on a final rate hike, focusing on the risks to inflation. However, with inflationary pressures easing and the economy slowing, the likelihood of a further rate hike has clearly diminished.

Asian markets were predominantly rising yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.70%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 1.72%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.51% on the day, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.56% on Monday.

Asian markets started the week quite positively after Friday’s US data, as well as some developments in China. Economists point to a surge in real estate transactions in Beijing and Shanghai over the weekend after mortgage rates and down payment ratios were cut, and the central government approved the creation of a special bureau within the NDRC to boost the private economy. All of this, combined with expectations of additional stimulus measures and news that distressed real estate developer Country Garden received lenders’ approval to extend payments on its onshore private bonds, helped improve market sentiment early in the week.

On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at 4.1% and said it would continue to consider further monetary tightening amid strong inflation and labor market activity. It was the last meeting for current chief Philip Lowe. Lowe’s term expires on September 18, after which the bank will be led by Deputy Governor Michelle Bullock. Governor Lowe said in a statement that containing inflation remains the bank’s top priority and that further monetary tightening may still be needed. At the same time, Lowe noted that he will be largely data-driven in the future, citing growing uncertainty about the outlook for the Australian and global economies.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,515.77 +8.11 (+0.18%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,837.71 +115.80 (+0.33%)

DAX (DE40)  15,824.85 −15.49 (−0.10%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,452.76 −11.78 (−0.16%)

USD Index  104.12 −0.12 (−0.11%)

• – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
• – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
• – German Service PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By George Prior

Lithuania is the best-positioned country in its region to overcome the economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, affirms the founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organisations.

The comments from deVere Group’s Nigel Green come as the war has intensified over the last week, again sending shockwaves through the economies of neighbouring countries.

He says: “The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has cast a long shadow over the economies of nearby countries, creating a ripple effect that demands immediate attention.

“Countries like Lithuania have not been spared from the repercussions of this crisis, with economic disruptions posing significant challenges.

“However, amid adversity lies the opportunity for strategic action to drive economic recovery and growth.”

Lithuania, a key player in the Baltic region, has experienced first-hand the economic consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. The prevailing uncertainty has dealt a blow to investor confidence, causing domestic and foreign investments to stagnate.

Trade, a vital engine of growth for Lithuania, has been hampered by the disruption of supply chains and the deterioration of trade routes.

One of the most pronounced effects has been the sharp increase in energy prices. Disruptions in natural gas pipelines traversing Ukraine have led to supply concerns, causing energy costs to soar in Lithuania. This rise not only impacts households but also places local industries at a competitive disadvantage.

“Lithuania recognises the need for proactive measures to counter the adverse effects of the conflict,” says Nigel Green. “This is why I believe it’s the best-positioned country in the region to stimulate economic growth.

“In light of disrupted trade with Ukraine, Lithuania is diversifying its trade portfolio. By establishing robust trade relationships with stable economies beyond its immediate region, Lithuania can buffer itself against future shocks and bolster economic resilience.”

He continues: “Acknowledging the vulnerability of traditional energy sources, Lithuania is turning towards renewable energy investments. This transition not only ensures energy security but also aligns with global sustainability goals, contributing to a more stable energy landscape.”

Lithuania plans to invest in its infrastructure and by creating well-connected transport networks, “the country seeks to position itself as a pivotal link between Eastern and Western Europe,” attracting trade and investment.

“Most importantly, Lithuania aims to attract foreign direct investment by encouraging a business-friendly environment. Streamlining bureaucracy, offering incentives, and showcasing the country’s potential can attract foreign companies to invest, thereby boosting economic activity and job and wealth creation.”

In addition, by promoting research, innovation, and technology-driven industries, “Lithuania aspires to become a hub for high-value, knowledge-based jobs,” and embracing cutting-edge technologies will “propel the nation towards economic rejuvenation.”

Nigel Green concludes: “By adopting a multi-pronged approach that encompasses trade diversification, renewable energy, infrastructure development, foreign direct investment attraction, innovation, and diplomatic engagement, Lithuania is poised to weather the storm and emerge stronger than before.

“This commitment to progress underscores Lithuania’s determination to turn adversity into an opportunity for sustainable growth.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.