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Japanese Yen Surges Amidst Potential Interventions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Japanese yen showed significant strength against the US dollar late last week, with the USD/JPY pair currently stabilizing around 157.86. This marks the lowest level for the currency pair in nearly a month.

The yen’s recent surge is attributed to widespread market speculation regarding potential interventions by Japanese authorities. Analysts believe that Japan may have conducted two separate interventions to bolster the yen, although these could also involve large-scale position closings on exchanges, known as “stop triggers.”

Reports indicate that the Bank of Japan may have expended between 3.37 and 3.57 trillion yen ($21.18 to $22.00 billion) last Thursday alone, with Friday’s expenditures yet to be confirmed. This marks a short interval since the last currency intervention by the BOJ.

Additionally, the BOJ’s recent inquiries into bank exchange rates could have preemptively influenced market movements, sometimes seen as a precursor to formal interventions.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair is currently navigating a consolidation phase around the 158.24 level. We anticipate a potential decline to 157.05, followed by a rebound to 158.76. A subsequent drop to 154.74 is expected, which could prompt a corrective movement back to 158.24. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, with its signal line positioned below zero and indicating a downward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, the USD/JPY is forming a downward wave towards 157.04. Upon reaching this level, a rise to at least 158.24 may occur, followed by another decline to 154.74. This bearish pattern is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line preparing to ascend from below 20 to around 50, suggesting potential brief recoveries amid overall downward momentum.

Market participants will closely monitor upcoming releases and statements from the Japanese government and the BOJ for confirmation of these interventions and further insights into future monetary policy actions.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

13 Jul

COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led by Gold, Copper & Silver

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Copper & Silver

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (13,232 contracts) with Copper (6,808 contracts), Silver (5,222 contracts) and Palladium (1,128 contracts) also recording positive weeks.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-1,290 contracts) and Steel (-265 contracts).

Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Silver & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Silver (100 percent) and Gold (91 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (85 percent), Platinum (79 percent) and Steel (73 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (28 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (91.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (85.2 percent)
Silver (100.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (92.9 percent)
Copper (85.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (79.1 percent)
Platinum (78.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (82.0 percent)
Palladium (28.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (20.9 percent)
Steel (73.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (74.3 percent)

Palladium & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10 percent) and Gold (8 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.

Platinum (-13 percent), Copper (-9 percent) and Steel (-7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (5.3 percent)
Silver (5.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (-5.2 percent)
Copper (-8.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (-20.9 percent)
Platinum (-13.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.9 percent)
Palladium (9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-1.7 percent)
Steel (-6.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 254,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 13,232 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 241,543 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.7	18.0	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.3	72.3	4.8
– Net Position:	254,775	-280,629	25,854
– Gross Longs:	303,043	92,907	50,623
– Gross Shorts:	48,268	373,536	24,769
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.3 to 1	0.2 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.2	10.8	64.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.2	-8.0	5.4

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 61,056 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,222 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,834 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	51.7	20.5	20.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.3	72.5	5.5
– Net Position:	61,056	-84,790	23,734
– Gross Longs:	84,351	33,496	32,735
– Gross Shorts:	23,295	118,286	9,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	85.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	5.2	-4.1	-0.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 56,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,223 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	53.5	23.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	49.4	3.9
– Net Position:	56,031	-67,549	11,518
– Gross Longs:	141,237	62,868	21,924
– Gross Shorts:	85,206	130,417	10,406
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	12.2	87.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	7.9	1.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,290 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,956 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.9	21.2	12.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	57.4	4.1
– Net Position:	22,666	-29,563	6,897
– Gross Longs:	47,350	17,388	10,259
– Gross Shorts:	24,684	46,951	3,362
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	78.5	12.8	76.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.1	6.9	39.2

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,128 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,685 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	54.8	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.0	14.8	6.8
– Net Position:	-9,557	9,369	188
– Gross Longs:	5,946	12,854	1,783
– Gross Shorts:	15,503	3,485	1,595
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	3.7 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.5	53.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.9	-8.5	-12.6

Steel Futures Futures:

The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,033 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -265 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,768 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	79.5	0.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.9	51.7	1.3
– Net Position:	-6,033	6,142	-109
– Gross Longs:	3,016	17,567	183
– Gross Shorts:	9,049	11,425	292
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.3	28.0	20.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.5	6.8	-8.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

13 Jul

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator bets led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & Fed Funds

The COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (111,115 contracts) with the Fed Funds (26,509 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (18,777 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the 10-Year Bonds (-72,528 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-28,629 contracts), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-12,743 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-12,815 contracts) and with the 2-Year Bonds (-11,932 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by US Treasury Bonds & SOFR 3-Months

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bonds (72 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (52 percent) lead the bond markets this week.

On the downside, the 5-Year Bonds (0 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (22 percent) and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (36.6 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (30.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (15.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (16.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (2.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (44.0 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (50.8 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (30.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (26.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (71.5 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (76.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (22.0 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (27.5 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (52.5 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (46.8 percent)

Ultra 10-Year Bonds & SOFR 3-Months top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (20 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.

The Fed Funds (-45 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-38 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-27 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (-16 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-44.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-48.6 percent)
2-Year Bond (-16.1 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (-14.5 percent)
5-Year Bond (-11.4 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-6.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (-2.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (5.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (20.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (17.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-27.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-38.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-28.0 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (17.4 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (9.1 percent)

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week was a net position of -150,397 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 111,115 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -261,512 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOFR 3-Months Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	59.3	0.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.9	57.7	0.2
– Net Position:	-150,397	150,504	-107
– Gross Longs:	1,499,891	5,796,400	21,481
– Gross Shorts:	1,650,288	5,645,896	21,588
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.5	47.4	87.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.4	-17.6	1.3

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,554 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 26,509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -160,063 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.4	66.0	2.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.1	58.6	2.2
– Net Position:	-133,554	128,691	4,863
– Gross Longs:	250,994	1,150,944	42,510
– Gross Shorts:	384,548	1,022,253	37,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	36.6	58.5	99.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-44.7	41.9	11.5

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,232,315 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -11,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,220,383 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	14.6	76.2	6.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.2	51.3	2.8
– Net Position:	-1,232,315	1,073,528	158,787
– Gross Longs:	629,962	3,283,900	278,977
– Gross Shorts:	1,862,277	2,210,372	120,190
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.5 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	15.6	81.1	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-16.1	17.9	2.0

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,566,601 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -28,629 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,537,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.5	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	62.3	4.4
– Net Position:	-1,566,601	1,408,198	158,403
– Gross Longs:	454,103	5,370,659	437,566
– Gross Shorts:	2,020,704	3,962,461	279,163
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	97.7	96.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	7.4	18.3

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -417,904 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -72,528 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -345,376 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	11.3	76.7	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.6	68.9	8.1
– Net Position:	-417,904	350,466	67,438
– Gross Longs:	510,933	3,451,637	431,249
– Gross Shorts:	928,837	3,101,171	363,811
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.0	39.9	88.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.8	-0.3	7.1

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -133,357 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 18,777 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -152,134 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	77.0	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.5	67.4	12.7
– Net Position:	-133,357	197,256	-63,899
– Gross Longs:	250,797	1,595,197	199,983
– Gross Shorts:	384,154	1,397,941	263,882
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.1	58.7	76.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.3	-30.8	9.5

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -34,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -12,815 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,606 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.2	68.0	12.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	70.0	8.6
– Net Position:	-34,421	-32,389	66,810
– Gross Longs:	304,975	1,138,051	211,512
– Gross Shorts:	339,396	1,170,440	144,702
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.5	16.1	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.3	16.1	31.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -405,960 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -393,217 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	80.7	10.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.2	56.7	9.9
– Net Position:	-405,960	398,608	7,352
– Gross Longs:	145,579	1,342,054	172,216
– Gross Shorts:	551,539	943,446	164,864
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.0	92.9	23.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-38.2	48.3	-10.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Financial News

13 Jul

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator bets led by Russell 2000 & MSCI EAFE

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell-Mini & MSCI EAFE-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (7,809 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (4,742 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (1,067 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the S&P500-Mini (-43,203 contracts), the VIX (-8,053 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (-5,559 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (-423 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.

Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by DowJones-Mini & S&P500-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the DowJones-Mini (73 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (57 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The VIX (49 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Russell-Mini (37 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the Nikkei 225 (39 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (48.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (57.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (56.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (63.0 percent)
DowJones-Mini (73.0 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (71.2 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (47.2 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (55.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (37.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (31.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (39.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (42.9 percent)
EAFE-Mini (40.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (36.0 percent)

Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends and is the only market with a positive reading for the stock markets.

The Nikkei 225 (-27 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-20.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-2.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-7.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (1.6 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.7 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (13.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-24.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-26.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (-26.9 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-18.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-0.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (0.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -61,478 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -8,053 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -53,425 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.8	47.3	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.9	34.2	6.1
– Net Position:	-61,478	61,231	247
– Gross Longs:	87,842	221,430	28,736
– Gross Shorts:	149,320	160,199	28,489
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.6	46.8	94.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.3	21.8	-5.4

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -55,011 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -43,203 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,808 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.1	70.0	13.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.8	72.1	8.2
– Net Position:	-55,011	-43,078	98,089
– Gross Longs:	309,758	1,434,315	266,655
– Gross Shorts:	364,769	1,477,393	168,566
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	56.5	34.0	77.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.9	8.7	-4.1

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 7,795 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,067 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,728 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	55.2	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.4	67.7	11.6
– Net Position:	7,795	-11,061	3,266
– Gross Longs:	22,317	48,737	13,525
– Gross Shorts:	14,522	59,798	10,259
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	73.0	22.2	64.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.7	9.6	-6.5

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 5,217 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,559 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,776 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.1	56.1	16.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	62.0	12.1
– Net Position:	5,217	-15,719	10,502
– Gross Longs:	66,337	148,257	42,436
– Gross Shorts:	61,120	163,976	31,934
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.2	35.3	95.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.9	-9.9	0.2

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -67,626 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,809 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,435 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	79.6	6.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	66.5	4.1
– Net Position:	-67,626	58,789	8,837
– Gross Longs:	55,367	356,460	27,196
– Gross Shorts:	122,993	297,671	18,359
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	37.1	58.2	58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	20.4	6.8

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -4,792 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,369 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.0	65.5	28.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.3	44.5	18.2
– Net Position:	-4,792	3,218	1,574
– Gross Longs:	925	10,030	4,358
– Gross Shorts:	5,717	6,812	2,784
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.3	48.9	65.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.9	22.1	-0.2

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -24,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,742 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	89.4	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	84.8	1.8
– Net Position:	-24,608	19,568	5,040
– Gross Longs:	31,004	378,665	12,714
– Gross Shorts:	55,612	359,097	7,674
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	40.9	57.1	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.2	0.8	-2.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

13 Jul

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator bets led by Soybean Oil & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 9th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Soybean Oil & Coffee

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Soybean Oil (37,237 contracts) with Coffee (7,659 contracts), Wheat (3,904 contracts), Sugar (3,161 contracts), Cocoa (1,578 contracts) and Live Cattle (665 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Corn (-11,230 contracts), Soybeans (-27,936 contracts), Soybean Meal (-10,279 contracts), Cotton (-7,188 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-368 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

Strength Scores led by Coffee

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Coffee (99 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybean Meal (55 percent), Soybean Oil (45 percent), Wheat (43 percent) and Cocoa (42 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Cotton (2 percent), Corn (3 percent), Lean Hogs (6 percent) and the Soybeans (11 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (3.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (4.8 percent)
Sugar (23.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (22.5 percent)
Coffee (99.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (91.9 percent)
Soybeans (11.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (17.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (45.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (24.6 percent)
Soybean Meal (54.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (58.8 percent)
Live Cattle (34.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (33.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (5.6 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (5.9 percent)
Cotton (2.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (7.0 percent)
Cocoa (42.3 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (40.7 percent)
Wheat (43.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (40.6 percent)

Sugar & Soybean Oil top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Sugar (21 percent) and Soybean Oil (19 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Coffee (12 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-35 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybeans (-29 percent), Corn (-24 percent) and Cotton (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-24.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (-23.8 percent)
Sugar (20.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (18.4 percent)
Coffee (12.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (8.1 percent)
Soybeans (-29.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-18.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (19.0 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (3.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (-19.8 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-5.2 percent)
Live Cattle (-10.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-0.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-35.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-42.6 percent)
Cotton (-21.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-11.5 percent)
Cocoa (-0.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (1.3 percent)
Wheat (-14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-18.2 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -239,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -11,230 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -228,711 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.8	44.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.2	28.7	10.3
– Net Position:	-239,941	250,562	-10,621
– Gross Longs:	309,195	698,186	150,884
– Gross Shorts:	549,136	447,624	161,505
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.3	95.8	93.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.0	21.2	38.0

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 68,019 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,161 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,858 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.5	53.6	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.8	64.0	7.5
– Net Position:	68,019	-80,789	12,770
– Gross Longs:	175,342	417,731	71,188
– Gross Shorts:	107,323	498,520	58,418
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.5	74.8	36.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-24.1	34.1

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 75,420 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 7,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	34.0	3.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.8	69.4	2.5
– Net Position:	75,420	-78,578	3,158
– Gross Longs:	90,458	75,501	8,606
– Gross Shorts:	15,038	154,079	5,448
– Long to Short Ratio:	6.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	99.4	0.2	65.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.0	-11.8	-2.8

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -150,150 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -27,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -122,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.3	60.2	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	40.5	7.3
– Net Position:	-150,150	160,682	-10,532
– Gross Longs:	124,357	490,906	49,133
– Gross Shorts:	274,507	330,224	59,665
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.1	88.5	84.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	28.7	21.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 6,477 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 37,237 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,760 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.9	51.6	5.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.7	53.5	4.6
– Net Position:	6,477	-10,143	3,666
– Gross Longs:	113,261	280,271	28,641
– Gross Shorts:	106,784	290,414	24,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.0	57.9	28.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.0	-15.5	-12.9

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 66,354 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.6	40.0	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.8	56.2	5.3
– Net Position:	66,354	-84,429	18,075
– Gross Longs:	143,642	208,260	45,589
– Gross Shorts:	77,288	292,689	27,514
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.6	44.3	37.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	21.9	-32.5

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 51,277 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 50,612 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.1	31.3	8.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.2	44.0	12.1
– Net Position:	51,277	-41,067	-10,210
– Gross Longs:	126,376	101,255	28,792
– Gross Shorts:	75,099	142,322	39,002
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.2	72.5	35.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.3	10.6	4.8

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -29,348 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -368 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,980 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.8	40.7	7.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.1	28.5	8.3
– Net Position:	-29,348	31,597	-2,249
– Gross Longs:	77,382	105,676	19,335
– Gross Shorts:	106,730	74,079	21,584
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.6	97.3	73.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-35.3	38.7	9.5

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -24,509 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,188 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.2	49.2	5.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.7	36.5	6.3
– Net Position:	-24,509	27,098	-2,589
– Gross Longs:	60,412	105,227	10,940
– Gross Shorts:	84,921	78,129	13,529
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.2	98.7	0.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-21.6	21.7	-18.4

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 31,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 1,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.7	34.1	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.8	61.8	3.8
– Net Position:	31,740	-38,427	6,687
– Gross Longs:	45,335	47,143	11,883
– Gross Shorts:	13,595	85,570	5,196
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.3	53.5	69.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.8	-0.0	7.1

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -34,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,904 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,690 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.8	38.4	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.3	28.7	9.0
– Net Position:	-34,786	39,865	-5,079
– Gross Longs:	131,162	158,097	32,120
– Gross Shorts:	165,948	118,232	37,199
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	43.3	56.4	42.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-14.2	13.8	7.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Soft Commodities

12 Jul

US Fed to start cutting rates in September. The Canadian dollar reached a 2-month high

By JustMarkets

At Thursday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.95%. Stocks found early support on Thursday on the Fed’s favorable June US CPI report, which lowered bond yields and reinforced speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates this year. However, a rotation out of technology stocks on Thursday pulled the S&P 500 away from a new record high and pressured the broader market. Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 8%, putting pressure on tech stocks after it postponed its robot cab unveiling to October.

June US CPI declined to 3.0% y/y from 3.3% y/y in May, better than expectations of 3.1% y/y. June CPI, excluding food and energy, declined to a 3-year low of 3.3% y/y from 3.4% y/y in May, which was better than expectations of no change at 3.4% y/y. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 17,000 to a 6-week low of 222,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of 235,000. The trade surplus with the US increased to $31.78 billion in June from $30.81 billion in the previous month. In the first half of 2024, the surplus totaled $435 billion, with exports rising 3.6% to $1.71 trillion and imports increasing 2.0% to $1.27 trillion. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 9% for the next FOMC meeting on July 30–31 and 93% for the September 17–18 meeting.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to 1.36 per US dollar in July, hitting an eight-week high. This was due to a weaker dollar after a decline in US inflation boosted bets that the Fed would cut rates in September. These developments balanced the outlook for the Fed and the Bank of Canada. Canada’s macroeconomic backdrop also supports bets that the Bank of Canada will continue to lower borrowing costs.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) rose by 0.69%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed higher by 0.71%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) climbed 0.89%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.36%.

WTI crude oil prices rose to 82.9 dollars per barrel on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session amid positive market sentiment following the release of lower-than-expected inflation data in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer. The June slowdown in US consumer price growth boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders now estimating the probability of a rate cut in September at 93%, up from 73% on Wednesday. In addition, signs of strong summer demand are supporting oil prices.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.94%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.55%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped 2.06%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.93%.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.05%, hitting a two-week low, as investors reassessed the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy outlook in light of the yen’s surge. On July 11, the yen rose 2.6% to 157.42 per dollar, which traders attributed to likely government intervention. The Bank of Japan is under pressure to raise interest rates again in July to defend its currency and narrow the gap between domestic and foreign yields. The Central Bank is also expected to announce its plans to reduce bond purchases this month after it met with market participants this week to determine the actual pace of bond buying cuts.

China’s trade surplus in June 2024 rose to 99.05 billion US dollars from 69.80 billion US dollars in the same period a year earlier, beating market expectations of 85 billion US dollars. It was the biggest trade surplus since July 2022, as exports rose and imports fell. Exports rose by 8.6% from a year earlier, the fastest pace in 15 months and beating estimates for 8% growth, while imports unexpectedly fell 2.3%, missing estimates for 2.8% growth and after rising 1.8% in May.

Singapore’s economy grew at a 2.9% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2024, beating market estimates that expected 2.7% growth. The preliminary estimate also followed an upwardly revised 3% growth in the previous quarter, the fastest growth rate in a year and a half.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,584.54 −49.37 (−0.88%)

Dow Jones (US30) 39,753.75 +32.39 (+0.082%)

DAX (DE40) 18,534.56 +127.34 (+0.69%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,223.34 +29.83 (+0.36%)

USD Index 105.01 −0.12 (−0.11%)

Important events today:

– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jul

Are You a “Betting Man”? Then Take a Look — and Make Your Bet.

By Murray Gunn | Global Rates & Money Flows editor

I have spent much of my career among professional traders. By nature, traders are a betting crowd; if they can’t bet on the markets, they’ll bet on something else.

A monthly highlight on trading floors was always the ‘NFP Sweepstake,’ where everyone would pay some money to guess what the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number would be. The winner, who would take the whole pot, was the guess that came closest to the actual number. A good strategy, therefore, would be to try and be either the highest or lowest number because, sometimes, NFPs do surprise.

That was the case last month when NFPs came in showing that 272,000 jobs were added in May compared with a consensus forecast of 185,000. Momentum in the U.S. labor market is waning, though. From January 2021 to December 2022 the average NFP number was 490,000 jobs added each month. From January 2023, the monthly average has halved to 241,000. The unemployment rate has increased from 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.1% now and jobless claims are rising.

The chart above shows annualized percentage change in those in the U.S. engaged in full-time employment. Full-time employment has been shrinking on an annualized basis since February this year, and you can see that every one of the eight recessions (the shaded areas on the chart) since 1970 has been accompanied by a negative reading. On three occasions, this metric has dipped into negative territory without a recession occurring.

I’m no expert bookie, but it seems to me that those odds tilt towards favoring a recession. What do you think?

The U.S. jobs market remains the most important economic variable on the planet given the importance of the U.S. consumer to economic activity. Regardless of where in the world you live or invest, staying ahead of the trends in the U.S. stock market and economy is worth your while. Elliott Wave International has a free must-read issue on U.S stocks that I suggest you check out, on www.elliottwave.com.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

12 Jul

Week Ahead: EU50 waits for directional spark

By ForexTime

FXTM’s EU50 ↑ 10% since start of 2024

EU data + ECB = big price swings?

Over past year ECB decision triggered moves of ↑ 1.5% & ↓ 0.3%

Index trading 3% away from YTD high at 5142.3

Technical levels = 5010 & 4880

Watch out for fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead due to key data, corporate earnings, and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting:

Monday, 15th July

CN50: China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
EU50: Eurozone industrial production
US500: US Empire State Manufacturing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
US30: Goldman Sachs earnings

Tuesday, 16th July

GER40: Germany ZEW survey expectations
EU50: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations
JP225: Japan tertiary industry index
US500: US retail sales, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, 17th July

EU50: Eurozone CPI
SG20: Singapore trade
UK100: UK CPI
US500: US industrial production, Fed Beige book
NETH25: ASML earnings

Thursday, 18th July

AU200: Australia unemployment
EU50: ECB rate decision
UK100: UK jobless claims, unemployment
US500: US initial jobless claims, Fed speech
NAS100: Netflix earnings
TWN: TSMC earnings

Friday, 19th July

JP225: Japan CPI
US500: New York Fed President Williams, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speech

Our spotlight shines on FXTM’s EU50 which has been trapped within a weekly range since mid-February 2024. Still, the index has gained 10% year-to-date and is 3% away from its 2024 high at 5142.3.

Note: FXTM’s EU50 tracks the underlying Euro Stoxx 50 index – which represents the performance of the 50 largest blue-chip companies operating within eurozone nations.

With all the above discussed, here are 3 forces that may rock the EU50 in the week ahead:

1) Key EU data

Economic releases from Europe may impact bets around when the ECB cuts rates again in 2024.

Keep an eye on the latest Eurozone industrial production, the final print of June’s inflation reading along with the ZEW survey expectations from Germany – the largest economy in Europe. While the incoming data is unlikely to impact what decision the ECB makes this month, it could expectations for September and beyond.

Should overall European data support the argument for lower rates, this could push the EU50 higher.

A positive set of economic reports or an unexpected upward revision to the CPI print could pull the EU50 lower.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the Germany ZEW survey has triggered upside moves as much as 0.5% or declines of 0.5% in a 6-hour window post-release.

2) ECB rate decision

Markets widely expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday 18th July.

In June, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 but adopted a cautious stance on future moves. Much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after the recent political drama in Europe.

Traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September with a move fully priced in by October.

The EU50 could receive a boost if the ECB signals that a September rate cut is on the cards.

If the ECB sounds more hawkish than expected or offers little insight on future moves, the EU50 may dip.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the ECB rate decision has triggered upside moves as much as 1.5% or declines of 0.3% in a 6-hour window post-release.

3) Technical forces

Prices remain trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with the first layer of support at 4880 and resistance at 5010. The candlesticks are trading marginally below the 50 and 100-day SMA as of writing with the MACD below zero.

A solid breakout above 5010, may open a path towards 5115 and 5142. Should bulls push beyond the 2024 high, this could trigger a move toward the next psychological point at 5150.

Sustained weakness below 5010, could see bears challenge 4880 and 4835.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News Opinions

12 Jul

Japanese Yen Surges: Potential Intervention Amid Inflation Shocks

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair experienced a significant drop to 159.06, driven by sharp declines following the release of unexpectedly low US inflation figures and potential interventions from Japanese authorities.

On Thursday, the pair plunged nearly 3%, prompted by US inflation data and rumours of Tokyo’s intervention to bolster the yen, which is nearing 38-year lows. Masato Kanda, Japan’s chief currency diplomat, hinted at readiness to intervene in the currency market but remained non-committal about the specific actions taken the previous evening.

Market participants are left to speculate on the nature of these moves as official data that could confirm government interventions will only be available at the end of the month. Reports from Asahi suggest that interventions did occur, while Nikkei highlighted the BoJ’s inspections of banks’ euro-yen rates, potentially escalating market tensions and supporting the yen’s strength.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY chart shows a second correction impulse down to 157.40. The potential for a recovery to 159.60 is noted, which would serve as a test from below. A subsequent decline to 157.22 is anticipated. This bearish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is below zero, indicating a downward trend.

The H1 chart confirms the formation of a downward trajectory towards 157.22, with the immediate target of 157.40 already achieved. A rebound to 159.60 is expected, followed by another decline to the target level. The Stochastic oscillator aligns with this analysis, showing a signal line above 80 and preparing for a downward adjustment to 20, suggesting potential for further declines.

Investors and traders will closely watch further statements from Japanese officials and the forthcoming official statistics to clarify the situation, as these factors will significantly influence the yen’s trajectory in the near term.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jul

Japanese Yen Faces Continued Decline Amid Interest Rate Differentials

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The USD/JPY pair has risen to 161.65, with the market cautious ahead of today’s US consumer price index release. Despite this, the yen remains weakened by the significant interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve.

Earlier this year, the BoJ abandoned its longstanding negative interest rate policy, adjusting the rate to zero. However, this adjustment has not halted the yen’s depreciation, raising concerns about the currency’s ongoing decline.

Investors eagerly await the BoJ’s meeting in July, where crucial decisions on bond purchases are expected. The outcome of this meeting could mark a significant shift in Japan’s monetary policy.

Mixed economic signals from Japan

Morning statistics from Japan showed mixed results. Core machinery orders declined by 3.2% month-on-month in May, following a 2.9% decrease the previous month. However, on an annual basis, these orders increased by 10.8%, surpassing the expected 7.2% growth, suggesting some underlying strength in the industrial sector.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The USD/JPY is establishing a consolidation range around 161.12. The price could reach up to 162.00, considered a local target within the current upward trend. Following this level, a correction to 158.80 is anticipated, which could lead to another growth phase targeting 163.30. This bullish outlook is supported technically by the MACD indicator, where the signal line is prominently above zero and oriented upward.

On the H1 chart, the pair has completed a growth structure reaching 161.79. Currently, a downward impulse to 161.47 has been observed. A continuation of this correction to 161.12 is expected, which should precede another rise to 162.00. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, with the signal line poised to drop from above 80 to 20, indicating potential short-term pullbacks before further gains.

Investors and traders will closely monitor upcoming data releases and central bank communications to gauge the potential directions for both the yen and broader currency markets.

Disclaimer

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.