Archive for Financial News – Page 117

19 Jul

EUR/USD Experiences Sharp Decline: Risk Appetite Heightens

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The EUR/USD pair fell sharply to 1.0888, with investors speculating on the future of US interest rates and the potential implications of the upcoming presidential election, particularly as Donald Trump’s chances appear to be improving. These factors contribute to a heightened risk appetite, leading to a retreat in the USD.

As the Federal Reserve approaches its meeting at the end of the month, a quiet period will begin this Saturday, during which the Fed will make no further comments.

Concurrently, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently held its meeting, maintaining the current interest rates as anticipated. This decision aligns with recent economic indicators corroborating the ECB’s inflation forecasts, prompting a cautious approach. The ECB emphasised that the prevailing high rates are instrumental in managing the consumer price index and reiterated the necessity to maintain these rates, given the expected inflation to remain above the 2% target into 2025.

This perspective is reinforced by sustained price pressures, particularly in the services sector, highlighting ongoing inflationary concerns.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD currency pair has developed a consolidation range around the 1.0806 level, with a breakout leading to achieving the target at 1.0946. A correction towards 1.0806 is currently anticipated, with the initial correction wave targeting 1.0880. Subsequently, a potential rebound to 1.0910 may occur before another decline to 1.0840. The MACD indicator supports this bearish outlook, indicating a downward trajectory from above zero.

The pair is forming a downward wave to 1.0880. Upon reaching this level, a rise to 1.0910 may be considered. This analysis is corroborated by the Stochastic oscillator, positioned below 20 and poised for an upward movement, suggesting a short-term recovery in the pair.

Investors and traders should monitor these developments closely, particularly any shifts in market sentiment influenced by macroeconomic data and central bank activities, which are crucial in shaping the currency dynamics in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
18 Jul

What You Can Learn from Europe’s “Dow Theory”-esque Non-confirmation

By Brian Whitmer | European Financial Forecast editor

Charles Dow (yes, the one with the averages named after him) developed a foundational concept in technical analysis that requires that price movement in industrial stocks and transportation shares confirm one another.

The main condition for a Dow Theory non-confirmation occurs when one sector makes a new extreme absent the other. Its classic application is observing the position of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, an index of 30 “industrial” stocks, versus the position of the Dow Jones Transportation Average, an index of 20 “transportation” stocks. In essence, whenever one index fails to keep up with the other, in either direction, it suggests an impending reversal.

These concepts can be applied universally.

For example, right now over in Britain, the FTSE 100’s divergence with the FTSE 350 Transportation Index just pushed to 29 months.

Britain's Longest Nonconfirmation to Date

This is a far more prolonged Dow Theory non-confirmation than that seen in July 2007 (seven months) or December 1999 (17 months). In 1999, the FTSE 100 eventually collapsed 53%, while the FTSE 350 Transports fell 66%. In 2007, the resulting declines were 49% and 77%, respectively.

In our view, Britain’s prolonged non-confirmation makes sense given a host of investor psychology and other extremes we’ve been tracking, not just in Europe but around the globe. If you want to stay up-to-date on our findings regarding the position of stocks and bond markets, currencies and the broad economic trends, check out some of our free must-read issues on www.elliottwave.com.

Financial News Stock Market News
18 Jul

Brent Oil Price Trends Upward Amid Positive Market Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil has reached $85.40, marking a continued increase over two consecutive sessions. This upward trend is primarily supported by recent US energy inventory statistics, which showed a significant decrease of 4.87 million barrels against an anticipated decline of 0.8 million barrels. This marks the longest stretch of inventory reductions since last September, underscoring a robust demand for oil.

Fueling the market optimism further, recent comments from Federal Reserve representatives suggest an imminent rate cut, with a 98% market expectation for this to occur in September. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic activity, thereby boosting demand for oil.

Geopolitical tensions also play a role in the current price dynamics. Reports of renewed attacks by Hussite forces on vessels in the Red Sea have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies, prompting the market to add a risk premium to oil prices.

Brent technical analysis

Brent crude oil has shown a growth wave reaching 84.42. A consolidation range has been established around this level. If the market breaks above this range, we anticipate a move towards 86.10, which is the immediate target. After reaching this target, a retest of 84.42 could occur, potentially setting the stage for further growth towards 87.70 and possibly extending to 90.00. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, indicating an upward trajectory from below the zero mark.

The market has found support at 84.42 and is progressing through a growth phase with an expected target at 86.10. We anticipate this target will be reached shortly, followed by a correction phase returning to 84.42. This view is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, which is nearing the 80 level, suggesting a potential pullback after the target is met.

Investors and traders should closely monitor these levels and the broader market context, including geopolitical developments and further signals from the Federal Reserve, as these factors will likely influence Brent’s price movements in the near term.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
18 Jul

Technology companies fall on fears of new sanctions on China

By JustMarkets

Stock indices traded mixed on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) setting a new record high and the Nasdaq 100 (US100) falling to a two-week low. The Dow Jones Industrials (US30) Index gained 0.59%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index fell by 1.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 2.77%. Positive corporate news boosted the broad market on Tuesday. Stock declines in chip companies and technology mega-companies negatively impacted the broader market. Nvidia stock fell by 7%, Qualcomm and AMD lost 8%, ARM fell nearly 10%, and ASML’s ADR decreased by 11%. In addition, larger technology stocks, Apple and Microsoft, lost more than 2% each. Shares of chip companies declined on concerns that the US may adopt tougher restrictions on Chinese trade and semiconductor technology. Bloomberg reported Wednesday that the Biden administration has told allies it is considering the toughest trade restrictions against chipmakers if they continue to give China access to advanced semiconductor technology.

Equity markets in Europe traded mixed on Wednesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) was down 0.44%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was up 0.13%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed positive 0.28%. European stocks have been suffering heavy losses for the past 2 sessions, as chip stocks have been under pressure due to reports that the US is considering tightening restrictions on chip exports to China. Donald Trump’s comments about Taiwan having to pay the US for defense also added to geopolitical concerns in the sector.

The UK labor market report was mixed. In the three months to May 2024, the number of people employed in the United Kingdom rose by 19,000 after falling by 139,000 in the previous period and exceeded market estimates. This marked the first rise in job creation in the three months to December 2023. Average weekly earnings, including bonuses in the UK for the three months to May 2024, rose 5.7% year-on-year to £689 a week, down 5.9% in each of the previous two periods and in line with estimates of 5.7%.

WTI crude oil prices climbed above $83 a barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session, thanks to a larger-than-expected drawdown in US crude inventories. According to the EIA, the US crude oil inventories fell by 4.87 million barrels in the week ended July 12, marking the third straight week of decline and exceeding the market estimates for a 0.8 million barrel decline. It is the longest stretch of inventory declines since September.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.43%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.46%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was up 0.06% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.73%.

Australia added more jobs than expected in June amid strong job openings and a high participation rate, although the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4%. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in August. Still, some traders continue to bet on another rate hike amid persistent inflationary pressures and a tight labor market. The RBA is also expected to ease policy much later than other major central banks.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,588.27 −78.93 (−1.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 41,198.08 +243.60 (+0.59%)

DAX (DE40) 18,437.30 −80.73 (−0.44%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,187.46 +22.56 (+0.28%)

USD Index 103.74 −0.53 (−0.51%)

Important events today:
  • – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 17:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
17 Jul

AUD/USD: Market Stabilizes Amid Rate Cut Expectations

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The Australian dollar has stabilized against the US dollar, currently trading around 0.6738. This follows a period of decline influenced by ongoing speculations regarding the US Federal Reserve’s impending policy actions. Expectations are set for the Fed to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with an additional reduction anticipated before the year’s end.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently reinforced these expectations by indicating that the regulator might not wait for inflation to hit the 2% target before reducing rates, responding to the current trajectory of the consumer price index.

Conversely, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is perceived to be trailing its international counterparts in easing monetary policy, which has contributed to the subdued performance of the AUD.

Later this week, Australia is slated to release its employment statistics. These figures are crucial as they provide a tangible measure of the labour market’s health and could potentially influence the RBA’s policy decisions moving forward.

AUD/USD technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently developing a downward movement towards the 0.6703 level, which serves as a local target. Upon reaching this level, a corrective movement upwards to 0.6747 is expected, which will test this resistance from below. Following this correction, the market may resume its downward trend towards 0.6696, completing the current correction wave before potentially initiating a new upward trajectory towards 0.6811. The MACD indicator supports this outlook, with its signal line indicating a downward trend despite being above the zero mark.

On the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has established a consolidation range around the 0.6747 level. With a downward exit, the pair continues to develop a downward structure aiming for the 0.6704 level. After this target is achieved, an upward correction to retest 0.6747 is anticipated. Subsequently, a new decline towards 0.6696 may occur. The Stochastic oscillator suggests that the current upward momentum is waning, with its signal line poised to drop from above 80, indicating potential for further declines.

Investors and traders should monitor these levels closely, especially in light of forthcoming economic data from Australia, which could significantly sway market sentiment and currency valuation.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
17 Jul

UK100: Dips on sticky inflation data

By ForexTime

  • UK100 ↓ 1% post sticky CPI release
  • Probability of BoE rate cut in August drops to 40%
  • UK jobs data and retail sales in focus
  • UK100 index coils up in a falling wedge pattern
  • Key levels of interest include 8208.4, 8279.0, 8120, and 8083

FXTM’s UK100 declined on Wednesday after stickier-than-expected inflation data cooled bets around the BoE cutting rates next month.

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) held at the BOE’s 2% target for a second month in June while services inflation was also unchanged at 5.7%. With CPI proving more stubborn than expected, Sterling jumped to a session high as bets for an August rate cut dropped to 40%.

Note: Over 80% of the revenues from FTSE100 companies come from outside of the UK. Meaning, that an appreciating pound results in lower revenues for those companies – weighing on the UK100 as a result. The same is true vice versa.

More volatility could be on the horizon for the UK100 due to the incoming jobs report on Thursday and retail sales on Friday. It is worth keeping in mind that, over the past year, the UK jobs report has triggered upside moves of as much as 0.6% or declines of 1.2% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Technically speaking, UK100, daily is seen consolidating into a falling wedge pattern, (a sideways movement in price bounded by two downward-sloping converging lines).

According to Thomas Bulkowski’s book Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, price (in a falling wedge pattern) can break out either upward or downward but is usually upward.

The index bulls (those looking to see the index rally) may observe the following near-term resistance levels;

  • 8208.4 – The 21-day simple moving average
  • 8265.2 – The 50-day simple moving average
  • 8279.0 – The upper bound trend line of the falling wedge pattern
  • 8320 –  A significant round number level.

UK 100 bears on the other hand may have their sights on the following near-term support levels

  • 8120 – An important price level
  • 8083 – The lower bound trend line of the falling wedge pattern

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
17 Jul

US indices hit all-time highs. Inflation in New Zealand is slowing down

By JustMarkets

Stock indices closed higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials setting new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.85%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) rose by 0.64%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively, 0.20%. Positive corporate news boosted the broad market on Tuesday.

Bank of America (BAC) closed higher by more than 5% after reporting a second-quarter net interest income of $13.86 billion, better than the consensus of $13.81 billion, and estimating fourth-quarter net interest income of $14.50 billion, above consensus of $14.33 billion. Morgan Stanley (MS) closed higher by more than 1% after reporting second-quarter net sales of $15.0 billion, above the consensus expectation of $14.27 billion.

US retail sales for June were unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations for a 0.3% m/m decline. Additionally, June retail sales excluding autos rose 0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) climbed above the $65,000 mark, hitting its highest level in nearly a month amid renewed bullish sentiment toward digital assets. Data showed that daily net inflows into 11 US spot bitcoin ETFs totaled $422.67 million on July 16, the highest since June 5 and extending the positive momentum to eight consecutive days.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.39%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.69%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.47%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.22%.

The UK’s annualized inflation rate for June 2024 was 2%, the same as in May and at the 2021 low, although market estimates pointed to 1.9%. The annual rate of core inflation in the UK in June 2024 was 3.5%, holding steady for the second consecutive month and at its lowest level since October 2021. The data matched market estimates, with the annualized CPI services rate at 5.7% for the second consecutive month.

WTI crude oil prices hovered near $80.8 a barrel on Wednesday, trying to break a four-day slide as lingering demand concerns in top consumer China were offset by a decline in US inventories. China’s second-quarter GDP growth and June retail sales came in below expectations, dragged down by the ongoing real estate market crisis and job insecurity. Meanwhile, the IMF estimates moderate global economic growth over the next two years, including a slowdown in the US, stabilization in Europe, and increased consumption and exports in China.

Asian markets traded mixed yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 20%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.10%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) fell by 1.60% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 0.23%. On Tuesday, China’s Central Bank injected the largest amount of cash into the Chinese banking system since January to offset the impact of the tax season and maintain ample liquidity. That will support Chinese indices.

The offshore yuan settled at 7.285 per dollar, holding near a one-week low as investors digested Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent speech at the Third Plenum. Xi urged the Communist Party to maintain “unwavering faith and commitment” to its strategic program amid a challenging domestic and international environment characterized by sluggish economic growth and geopolitical tensions. He also emphasized that Beijing intends to prioritize technology, advanced manufacturing, and other critical sectors necessary for China’s long-term sustainability.

The New Zealand dollar rose to $0.606 on the back of inflation data. New Zealand’s annual inflation rate slowed to 3.3% in the second quarter, the lowest in three years, from 4% in the previous period. However, the latest figure remains outside the Reserve Bank’s target range of 1–3%. The Central Bank expects inflation to return to the target range later this year and will only consider cutting rates once it is satisfied that inflation will remain within that range.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,667.20 +35.98 (+0.64%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,954.48 +742.76 (+1.85%)

DAX (DE40) 18,518.03 −72.86 (−0.39%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,164.90 −18.06 (−0.22%)

USD Index 104.24 +0.05 (+0.05%)

Important events today:
  • – New Zealand Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 Jul

ASML earnings preview: Set for fresh all-time highs?

By ForexTime 

  • ASML ↑ over 40% year-to-date
  • Shares could move 5.7% % ↑ or ↓ post-earnings
  • Machinery bookings & forward guidance in focus
  • Technical levels – 1120 and 1000

Shares of ASML have been on a tear this year, surpassing the $1000 and €1000 milestone across both exchanges.

Note: ASML shares can be traded on the Euronext Amsterdam and Nasdaq exchanges. 

Its position as the world’s leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment has allowed it to benefit from the A.I. frenzy with shares up over 40% year-to-date.

Prices could push higher depending on how investors react to the latest earnings report.

  • When will earnings be published?

ASML will report its earnings for the second quarter before US markets open on Wednesday 17th July.

  • Market expectations:

The company is expected to post earnings of €3.74 compared to €4.93 a year ago.

Quarterly revenues are seen falling to €6 billion from €6.9 billion in the prior year – equating to a 13% decline.

  • Why is this important?

As a leading manufacturer of chip-making equipment, its earnings and forward guidance may serve as a gauge for the AI hype.

In the first quarter, ASML disappointed investors with revenues declining by 21% year-over-year to €5.3 billion. While sales are expected to fall in Q2, much focus will be on net machinery bookings which are estimated to be around €4.56 billion. Still, growing demand for AI Chips may translate to a significant increase in new orders.

  • Potential challenges…

China is ASML’s biggest market, accounting for 49% of total sales in the first quarter of 2024.

However, this may be impacted by Dutch licensing requirements and US export restrictions. A noticeable decline in total sales in China may weigh on the business outlook.

  • How will ASML react to earnings?

Markets are forecasting a 5.7% move, either Up or Down, for ASML stocks on Wednesday post earnings.

  • What does this mean for prices?

A 5.7% move up from $1062 will take ASML shares to fresh all-time highs beyond $1120.  

While a 5.7% move down will send prices back towards the psychological $1000 level.

  • Keep an eye on TSMC’s earnings

Watch out for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) which is due to release its earnings on Thursday 18th July. 

TSMC accounts for 28% of ASML’s revenue, so better-than-expected earnings from TSMC may boost ASML’s shares and vice versa.

  • Technical picture

Prices are firmly bullish on the daily charts as there have been consistently higher highs and higher lows.

  • A solid set of earnings and forward guidance that satisfies investors could push prices to all-time highs beyond 1120.
  • If the manufacturer of chipmakers disappoints, prices could slip back towards the 1000 psychological level.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Stock Market News
16 Jul

The Australian dollar remains in positive territory against other currencies. The Bank of Canada survey disappointed investors

By JustMarkets

At Monday’s close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up 0.53%, while the S&P 500 (US500) Index was up 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.40% yesterday. The Russell 2000 Index also gained 1.8% as investors continued to refocus on small-company stocks. The energy, financials, and industrial sectors outperformed the market, while utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare stocks were the biggest fallers. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said yesterday that the central bank won’t wait until inflation reaches 2 percent before cutting interest rates because it operates with “long and variable lags.” That raised the likelihood of the first-rate cut in September, which is a positive for indices. Investors are now awaiting Tuesday’s US retail sales data and Fed officials’ comments for more clues on the future course of monetary policy. Markets have already all but priced in September’s rate cut, with two more cuts expected before the end of the year.

The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey emphasized continued pessimism among Canadian companies, attributing it to weak sales expectations and high equipment costs holding back investment. In addition, Canada’s unemployment rate rose in June to its highest level since January 2022, accompanied by an unexpected 1.4k jobs decline versus an expected 22.5k increase, adding to the Bank of Canada’s concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on the labor market.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) surged to $65,000 on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in nearly a month, as US presidential candidate Donald Trump picked Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate. The Ohio Republican said he owns more than $100,000 worth of bitcoin and has been critical of regulatory actions taken by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (ІSEC) against the crypto industry. Bitcoin has risen more than 10% since Friday, helped largely by the prospect of a second Trump presidency.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.84%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.19%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.96%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed negative 0.85%. Disappointing economic data from China, negative corporate news, and quarterly results dampened investor sentiment.

WTI crude oil prices fell to $81.5 a barrel on Tuesday, declining for the third consecutive session. Demand uncertainty in top consumer China and a rising dollar pressured oil prices. Data released Monday showed China’s oil imports fell month-on-month and year-on-year to 46.45 million tons in June amid weak domestic demand.

Asian markets were predominantly up yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was not trading yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.36%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down 1.52% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive 0.73%.

Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.3% in Tuesday morning trading, declining for a second day and moving away from their highest level in 3 weeks amid a retreat in all sectors. Disappointingly, Q2 Chinese GDP data continued to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs cut China’s 2024 GDP forecast to 4.9% from 5%, and JPMorgan cut its forecast to 4.7% from 5.2%. Investors’ attention turns to the Third Plenum, a high-level leadership conference scheduled for July 15-18, where they will await policy decisions. However, the focus is expected to be long-term economic and social issues.

The Australian dollar will remain positive against other currencies as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to ease policy much later than other major central banks. Due to ongoing domestic inflationary pressures, markets are also looking at the possibility of another rate hike by the RBA this year. Investors are now awaiting Australian employment data later this week to gauge the state of the labor market.

The New Zealand dollar fell to $0.605, at its lowest level in two weeks, as investors await second-quarter inflation data that could influence the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) policy trajectory. Economists expect New Zealand’s consumer inflation to slow to 3.5 percent in the second quarter, the lowest rate on record.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,631.22 +15.87 (+0.28%)

Dow Jones (US30) 40,211.72 +210.82 (+0.53%)

DAX (DE40) 18,590.89 −157.29 (−0.84%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,182.96 −69.95 (−0.85%)

USD Index 104.26 +0.17 (+0.16%)

Important events today:
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Trade Balance (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
16 Jul

Gold Nears Record High as Fed Rate Cut Looms

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Gold prices have surged, reaching $2430 per troy ounce on Tuesday, flirting with historic highs. The recent spike in gold prices is largely attributed to comments made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have bolstered expectations of an impending interest rate cut.

In his latest address, Powell highlighted that recent U.S. economic indicators are encouraging, suggesting that inflation is moving towards the target. Importantly, he indicated that the Federal Reserve might initiate monetary easing before inflation strictly hits the 2% target mark.

Market anticipation for rate adjustments is palpable, with consensus almost fully expecting a rate cut as early as September, with a potential second cut before year-end. Such monetary policy adjustments typically bolster gold prices, making it an attractive investment in times of lower interest rates.

Concurrently, the political landscape in the U.S. could influence market dynamics. Increasing prospects of Donald Trump’s success in the upcoming presidential race could strengthen the U.S. dollar and uplift Treasury yields, potentially tempering gold’s rally.

Technical analysis of XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair has recently executed a significant upward move to $2420.50 and is now oscillating within a consolidation range near this level. We might see an extension of this range up to $2444.44. Should this level be reached, a corrective pullback to $2350.50 could ensue. This scenario is technically supported by the MACD indicator, which shows a strong upward trend.

On the hourly chart, gold has breached the $2420.50 mark and is stabilizing above this threshold. We anticipate further growth towards $2444.44. Upon achieving this peak, a potential reversal towards $2350.50 may occur, marking the commencement of a bearish phase. The Stochastic oscillator, currently positioned above 80, suggests a downward adjustment is likely following the climb.

Investors and traders are advised to monitor these levels closely, especially in light of upcoming economic data and Fed communications which could further sway gold’s price trajectory.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Financial News Metals
← Previous Page
Next Page →