COT Soft Commodities Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 7th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Sugar, Corn & Soybeans

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall higher this week as eight out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (37,457 contracts) with Corn (36,803 contracts), Soybeans (36,180 contracts), Soybean Meal (13,702 contracts), Cotton (10,580 contracts), Wheat (5,274 contracts), Coffee (5,092 contracts) and Cocoa (1,731 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the decreases in weekly speculator bets were Live Cattle (-6,193 contracts), Soybean Oil (-4,783 contracts) and with Lean Hogs (-2,150 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Cocoa leads Soft Commodities Price Performances

This week’s Soft Commodities price performances were led by super strong performances from Cocoa and Coffee. Cocoa jumped by 18.61% this week, followed by Coffee, which was higher by 12.13%. Next up, Cotton rose higher by 5.74%, while Wheat advanced by 5.42%, and Soybean Oil was also higher by over 5% with a 5.38% increase.

Soybean Meal was higher than 3% with a 3.46% rise, while Corn saw an advance by 2.56%. Soybeans rose by 1.84% on the week, while Lean Hogs was up marginally by 0.25%, and Sugar saw a minuscule uptick by 0.07%.

On the downside, Live Cattle was the only decliner on the week with a -1.60% decrease.

Cocoa and Coffee have been seeing strong trends higher as Cocoa is up by over 44% in the past 30 days, while Coffee is up by 25% in the past 30 days. Cocoa’s 90-day gain is now a whopping 97.72%.

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Soft Commodities Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Cotton

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Cotton (92 percent) leads the softs markets this week. Soybeans (69 percent), Soybean Oil (69 percent), Soybean Meal (61 percent) and Live Cattle (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent) and Cocoa (10 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Sugar (39 percent) and the Coffee (49 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (50.0 percent) vs Corn previous week (44.9 percent)
Sugar (39.0 percent) vs Sugar previous week (31.5 percent)
Coffee (48.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybeans (68.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (60.7 percent)
Soybean Oil (68.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (70.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (60.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (55.0 percent)
Live Cattle (58.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (64.5 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (1.3 percent)
Cotton (91.7 percent) vs Cotton previous week (85.4 percent)
Cocoa (9.8 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (8.2 percent)
Wheat (57.5 percent) vs Wheat previous week (53.0 percent)

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Coffee & Sugar top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Coffee (9 percent) and Sugar (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Cocoa (3 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Soybean Meal (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-34 percent), Corn (-27 percent) and Lean Hogs (-24 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-27.4 percent) vs Corn previous week (-40.0 percent)
Sugar (4.1 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-3.6 percent)
Coffee (9.0 percent) vs Coffee previous week (4.6 percent)
Soybeans (-20.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-30.0 percent)
Soybean Oil (-18.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-23.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (-37.4 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-45.0 percent)
Live Cattle (-5.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (-3.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (-24.3 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-32.8 percent)
Cotton (0.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.7 percent)
Cocoa (3.1 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (0.9 percent)
Wheat (-33.9 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-46.5 percent)

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Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 100,980 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 36,803 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,177 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 50.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.9	40.9	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.0	44.9	10.2
– Net Position:	100,980	-67,654	-33,326
– Gross Longs:	478,153	700,793	141,480
– Gross Shorts:	377,173	768,447	174,806
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.0	46.9	76.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-27.4	24.8	31.5

 

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SUGAR Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -59,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 37,457 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -96,730 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.4	46.5	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.3	41.0	7.5
– Net Position:	-59,273	55,415	3,858
– Gross Longs:	263,310	464,352	78,490
– Gross Shorts:	322,583	408,937	74,632
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.0	62.7	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.1	-4.1	3.0

 

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COFFEE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 25,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position boost of 5,092 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,531 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.1	35.7	4.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	51.5	3.4
– Net Position:	25,623	-27,568	1,945
– Gross Longs:	59,414	62,308	7,876
– Gross Shorts:	33,791	89,876	5,931
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.9	51.5	49.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.0	-10.5	31.6

 

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SOYBEANS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 112,807 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position increase of 36,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 76,627 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.1	50.8	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.5	59.6	7.2
– Net Position:	112,807	-85,585	-27,222
– Gross Longs:	215,618	495,676	43,415
– Gross Shorts:	102,811	581,261	70,637
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.7	33.0	27.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-20.4	20.8	2.7

 

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SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 94,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -4,783 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 99,449 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.4	47.6	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	63.8	4.1
– Net Position:	94,666	-104,308	9,642
– Gross Longs:	150,422	305,646	35,851
– Gross Shorts:	55,756	409,954	26,209
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.7 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.8	30.5	66.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.9	19.8	-21.5

 

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SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,388 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position rise of 13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,686 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	44.7	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	59.2	4.4
– Net Position:	62,388	-86,217	23,829
– Gross Longs:	169,619	266,258	50,121
– Gross Shorts:	107,231	352,475	26,292
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.5	39.3	76.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-37.4	38.2	-14.6

 

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LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 81,668 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -6,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,861 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.8	30.4	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.0	52.7	11.4
– Net Position:	81,668	-70,893	-10,775
– Gross Longs:	138,662	96,239	25,345
– Gross Shorts:	56,994	167,132	36,120
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.4	34.1	60.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.1	5.5	2.6

 

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LEAN HOGS Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -64,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position reduction of -2,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,271 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.7	44.2	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.5	23.1	6.9
– Net Position:	-64,421	62,268	2,153
– Gross Longs:	67,415	130,907	22,710
– Gross Shorts:	131,836	68,639	20,557
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.3	23.1	27.3

 

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COTTON Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 88,428 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,848 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.7 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.2	34.9	4.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.4	65.0	2.6
– Net Position:	88,428	-95,539	7,111
– Gross Longs:	137,454	111,052	15,463
– Gross Shorts:	49,026	206,591	8,352
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	91.7	11.7	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	0.4	0.7	-11.0

 

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COCOA Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,729 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 1,731 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -14,460 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.4	49.7	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	44.0	4.9
– Net Position:	-12,729	11,372	1,357
– Gross Longs:	38,399	98,437	11,012
– Gross Shorts:	51,128	87,065	9,655
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.8	88.8	40.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.1	-3.4	3.9

 

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WHEAT Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -49,730 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position uptick of 5,274 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -55,004 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.5 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.9	40.7	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.0	28.3	8.3
– Net Position:	-49,730	50,894	-1,164
– Gross Longs:	111,128	167,760	33,278
– Gross Shorts:	160,858	116,866	34,442
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.5	46.7	46.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-33.9	37.5	-17.7

 

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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.