Week Ahead: NAS100 faces triple threat – SpaceX, Fed & Iran

• NAS100 ↑ 17% YTD, 4% away from ATH
• SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq exchange
• Renewed peace deal hopes may lift risk sentiment
• Fed decision set to add to overall volatility
• Technical levels: 29500, 30850, 28300

Big money is moving. Are you ready?

Central bank decisions, major data and geopolitics spell fresh trading opportunities in the week ahead.

SpaceX hits the Nasdaq exchange this afternoon, the biggest stock listing in history, with a record $75 billion raised from financial firms.

Trade SpaceX CFD (SPCX) with FXTM from Monday 15th June.

Add a potential US-Iran peace deal to the mix and markets have the ingredients for serious market volatility:

Monday, 15th June

•       CAD: Canada housing starts, manufacturing sales

•       EUR: Eurozone industrial production

•       USD: US industrial production, Empire State manufacturing

Tuesday, 16th June

•       AUD: RBA rate decision

•       CNY: China property prices, retail sales, industrial production

•       EUR: Germany ZEW survey expectations

•       JPY: BoJ rate decision

•       NZD: New Zealand food prices

Wednesday, 17th June

•       EUR: Eurozone CPI, ECB Wage Tracker

•       ZAR: South Africa CPI, retail sales

•       GBP: UK CPI

•       USD: US FOMC rate decision, retail sales

Thursday, 18th June

•       NZD: New Zealand GDP

•       GBP: UK BOE rate decision, jobless claims, unemployment

Friday, 19th June

•       CAD: Canada retail sales

•       JPY: Japan CPI, BOJ meeting minutes

•       GBP: UK retail sales

•       US Juneteenth holiday, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan observe Dragon Boat Festival. Markets closed.

SpaceX’s debut doesn’t just make history. It removes the liquidity overhang that’s been sitting on markets like a dead weight. With that pressure gone, equities could be in for a rollercoaster ride.

Here are 4 forces that could send NAS100 flying or falling:

1)      SpaceX goes live

SpaceX is now among the largest public companies on the planet and $100 billion in retail buy orders flooded in before it even started trading. It could join the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 trading days.

But here’s the catch…at a $1.8 trillion valuation, this stock is priced for perfection on a company that isn’t yet turning a profit.

• Strong debut = risk-on rocket fuel for the Nasdaq100 and US equities.
• Weak debut = confidence shock. Markets feel it everywhere.

2)     US-Iran deal close, but no done

We have been here before.

Trump says a deal is near. Markets heard it and liked it with risk sentiment jumping on hopes that 100+ days of Middle East-driven volatility might finally be coming to an end.

Less regional conflict -> less oil risk -> cooling inflation fears -> more appetite for equities.

But sentiment remains fragile as Iranian officials haven’t signed anything yet. Until ink hits paper, this is just hope not reality.

3)     Fed decision – all eyes on Warsh

Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

The real story is Kevin Warsh stepping up to the podium for his first press conference as Fed Chair.

Expect him to play it carefully — no explicit rate guidance, a balanced read on inflation and jobs data, maybe some housekeeping on how the Fed communicates going forward.

• If he strikes a hawkish tone, this may weigh on equities as Fed hike bets jump.
• A move dovish lean may support equities.

4)     Technical forces                                                                                                                                    

The NAS100 bullish on the daily charts with prices recently bouncing near the 50-day SMA

• A solid breakout above 30,000 may trigger an incline toward 30,793 and higher.
• Weakness below 29500 may open the doors toward 28200 and the 50-day SMA.