NZD and CAD strengthen amid rising inflationary pressure

The US stock market ended Monday’s trading session with moderate declines. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.01%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.24%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.31%. The main pressure factor was the sharp return of the geopolitical risk premium into asset prices. Donald Trump’s ultimatum regarding the ceasefire expiring this week and his decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked until a final agreement is signed destroyed hopes for a quick de‑escalation. This triggered an immediate rise in oil prices, which in turn reshaped sector dynamics. A clear rotation of capital was observed in the market. Investors exited overheated tech stocks and “defensive” utilities, reallocating funds into energy, financials, and materials.

On Monday, the Canadian dollar (CAD) strengthened to 1.37 against the US dollar, marking its best level in a month. The key factor was the reversal in the energy sector: consumer energy inflation surged to 3.9%, fully offsetting the 9.3% lower deflation seen a month earlier. This sharp shift was driven by an unprecedented jump in gasoline prices – up 21.2% in just one month. Such macroeconomic data virtually eliminate the possibility of near‑term rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, further supporting the currency.

European stock indices began the trading week with a noticeable decline. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.15%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 1.21%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 0.55%. The main trigger for the sell‑off was an incident in the Gulf of Oman, where US Marines seized control of an Iranian container ship after an armed confrontation. This episode, following Iran’s attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz the day before, led to the cancellation of the scheduled Monday negotiations in Islamabad. The Iranian side refused to participate, citing the ongoing naval blockade of its ports, effectively pushing the region to the brink of a full‑scale energy crisis. The tourism and entertainment sector suffered the most due to expectations of rising jet‑fuel prices. Shares of low‑cost carrier Ryanair plunged down by 3.5%, dragging the entire segment down.

Platinum prices (XPT) fell more than 2% to below 2,100 dollars per ounce, retreating from a four‑week high due to broad pressure on the precious‑metals sector. The main negative factor was the sharp spike in oil prices following the renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz and the seizure of an Iranian vessel by the US Navy. Despite the current decline, the platinum market continues to show signs of structural deficit due to the extreme vulnerability of supply in South Africa and Russia. While South African mines suffer from aging infrastructure and exorbitant electricity costs, Russian production continues to shrink under international sanctions. Current levels of secondary recycling remain insufficient to offset the shortage of primary supply, providing fundamental support to prices and limiting the potential for further declines even amid a stronger dollar and geopolitical instability.

The WTI oil market saw a sharp reversal: prices jumped more than 5%, reaching 88.8 dollars per barrel. This rise followed an 11.5% collapse last Friday and was triggered by a sharp cooling of diplomatic expectations over the weekend. The main driver of volatility was Donald Trump’s hardline rhetoric. The US President stated that extending the current ten‑day ceasefire with Tehran is highly unlikely unless a final agreement is signed by the end of the week. Moreover, Trump made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until the deal is legally finalized. With the world’s key artery for oil and gas shipments still closed, the market once again began pricing in a scenario of prolonged supply shortages. The current standoff threatens to evolve into a chronic global energy crisis, as importers’ reserves continue to deplete amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.60% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.44%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.77%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) gained 0.07%.

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) strengthened to 0.591 US dollars, reaching a six‑week high amid unexpectedly strong inflation data. Consumer prices in the first quarter of 2026 rose by 3.1% year‑on‑year, not only exceeding analysts’ expectations (2.9%) but also confirming that inflationary pressure remains above the RBNZ target range (1-3%). Traders now fully price in a rate hike in July, expecting that in the second quarter, the energy shock from the Middle East conflict will lead to an even sharper rise in prices.