COT Metals Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

By InvestMacro 

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Steel

The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall decisively lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Steel which showed a small gain by 245 contracts for the week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-5,573 contracts), Copper (-2,846 contracts), Silver (-2,448 contracts), Platinum (-250 contracts) and with Palladium (-393 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Palladium leads Metals markets price performances on the week

This week’s major Metals market price performances were led by Palladium, which rose by 1.10%. Gold was up marginally higher by 0.45%, while Steel rounded out the gainers with a 0.09% uptick.

On the downside, Platinum dipped by -0.25% and Copper was lower by -0.50%. Silver was the biggest decliner on the week with a -2.69% decrease.

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Metals Data:

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Copper & Steel

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Copper (97 percent) and Steel (85 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Platinum (55 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Silver (24 percent) and Gold (34 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (34.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.2 percent)
Silver (24.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (28.3 percent)
Copper (97.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (99.6 percent)
Platinum (55.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.8 percent)
Palladium (72.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (75.4 percent)
Steel (85.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (84.2 percent)

 

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Copper tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover this week.

Palladium (-12 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-7 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (-3.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (1.4 percent)
Silver (-2.3 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.1 percent)
Copper (16.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (32.7 percent)
Platinum (-7.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.3 percent)
Palladium (-12.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.3 percent)
Steel (-0.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (-1.1 percent)

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Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 154,260 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -5,573 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 159,833 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	56.8	21.1	13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.1	73.7	4.4
– Net Position:	154,260	-185,766	31,506
– Gross Longs:	200,704	74,641	47,149
– Gross Shorts:	46,444	260,407	15,643
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.3 to 1	0.3 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.0	61.8	58.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.4	6.1	-20.6

 

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Silver Comex Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 22,223 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position fall of -2,448 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,671 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.2	27.1	26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	67.3	8.5
– Net Position:	22,223	-40,893	18,670
– Gross Longs:	32,758	27,605	27,301
– Gross Shorts:	10,535	68,498	8,631
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	24.2	71.9	55.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.3	-1.2	11.6

 

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Copper Grade #1 Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 73,040 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decrease of -2,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 75,886 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.0 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.7	33.1	7.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.3	64.5	3.7
– Net Position:	73,040	-83,712	10,672
– Gross Longs:	105,673	88,083	20,574
– Gross Shorts:	32,633	171,795	9,902
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	97.0	2.9	69.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.4	-16.6	8.4

 

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Platinum Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 17,658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position lowering of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,908 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.5	29.1	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	66.3	4.5
– Net Position:	17,658	-23,307	5,649
– Gross Longs:	25,998	18,267	8,463
– Gross Shorts:	8,340	41,574	2,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	46.4	63.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.4	5.0	11.4

 

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Palladium Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,890 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position decline of -393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,497 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.8 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	38.5	40.4	14.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.8	28.0	9.9
– Net Position:	-2,890	2,059	831
– Gross Longs:	6,432	6,739	2,478
– Gross Shorts:	9,322	4,680	1,647
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.8	30.3	48.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.1	11.6	-1.8

 

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Steel Futures Futures:

Positioning Notes:

• Steel Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 11,351 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday.
• Weekly Speculator position gain of 245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,106 net contracts.
• This week’s current strength score (range over the past 3 years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent.
• The Commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.5 percent.
• The Small Traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Steel Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	65.8	1.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.4	93.4	0.1
– Net Position:	11,351	-11,781	430
– Gross Longs:	13,234	28,015	477
– Gross Shorts:	1,883	39,796	47
– Long to Short Ratio:	7.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	10.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	85.4	14.5	91.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.9	0.8	1.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and contained in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.