By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Australian Dollar (4,835 contracts) with the Mexican Peso (3,595 contracts), the British Pound (3,290 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (465 contracts), the Japanese Yen (335 contracts), Bitcoin (229 contracts) and the Swiss Franc (185 contracts) also recording positive weeks.
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The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the EuroFX (-20,961 contracts), the US Dollar Index (-2,688 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-759 contracts) and with the Brazilian Real (-233 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
The Australian Dollar speculative bets lead off the highlights this week as the AUD bets rose for an eighth consecutive week. Over this eight-week span, the Aussie Dollar speculative net position has improved by over 70,000 contracts. Despite that improvement, the Australian Dollar net position remains in bearish territory at -14,011 net positions at this time. This is actually the best standing for the Australian dollar speculative bets since all the way back to December of 2024, a span of 58 consecutive weeks that this currency has been in a bearish net position. The Australian Dollar, in the currency markets, has been on the rise and jumped this week by over 3%. It is now up by over 12% since January of 2025. Currently trading around 0.6887, the AUD is at its highest level since September of 2024 and with further upside momentum, we could see a challenge of the 0.70 significant psychological level soon.
Coming up next is the Mexican Peso, which saw speculator bets rise this week for the fourth time in the past five weeks, and for the tenth time over the past 14 weeks. The Peso has been in an overall bullish position for approximately one year now, dating back to January 21st of 2025. Peso positions have been gaining steadily over the past 52 weeks and have now been above the +100,000 net contract level for five consecutive weeks and for six out of the last seven weeks, indicating the strong sentiment for the MXN at this time. The Peso exchange rate is on a strong uptrend at the moment versus the US Dollar, and has seen a strong monthly gain to start the new year with gains in eight out of the last nine weeks. The MXN is now at the highest price level since June of 2024 and is up by over 20% in the last 52 weeks.
The Euro common currency’s speculative bets fell sharply for a second consecutive week, and have now declined by over -50,000 contracts in just the past two weeks. However, the Euro has been in a super strong position and indicates a likely profit-taking dip as the net speculative contracts have been above the +100,000 net contract level for 28 out of the last 32 weeks, including for the last eight consecutive weeks. The Euro currency closed out this week above the 1.18 level in the forex market after hitting support last week and rebounding off of the 1.1620 area. What a difference a year makes as last January, the Euro currency was trading around just 1.0250. And since then, the currency has risen by about 15%. Time will tell if the Euro can break above the 1.1865 resistance area that has stopped its ascent multiple times since June.
The US Dollar Index position dropped this week by over -2,500 contracts after seeing seven straight weeks of gains previously. The US Dollar Index net positions have now been in an overall bearish level for the past 32 consecutive weeks, dating back to June of 2025. The Dollar Index price has been on a strong downtrend for the past year and this week closed under the 97.50 level with an almost 2% drop on the week. Compared to last January, when this currency was trading around the 1.09 to 1.10 levels, USD Index is now currently lower by approximately 11%.
The best returning currency this week was the New Zealand Dollar which showed a 3.36% gain, while the Australian Dollar came in at a similar 3.13% rise over these past five days. The Swiss Franc was higher by 2.74%, followed by the British Pound with a 1.92% gain and the Euro with a 1.91% gain. The Brazilian Real was higher by 1.60%, while the Canadian Dollar was up by 1.59%. The Mexican Peso rose by 1.4%, and the Japanese Yen showed an increase by 1.45%.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index dropped by -1.90% over these past five days while Bitcoin saw the biggest decline with a -6.23% drop.
The leaders over the past 30 days are the Mexican Peso, with a gain of approximately 4% over that time, with a 3.8% rise, followed by the Australian Dollar, which is up by 3.45%. The Peso and the Australian Dollar also lead the past 90 days percent changes, with the Peso up by 5.7% over that time and the Australian Dollar higher by 4.26%.
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Mexican Peso (82 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (76 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The EuroFX (71 percent), Australian Dollar (66 percent) and Bitcoin (59 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) and the Swiss Franc (13 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the US Dollar Index (27 percent) and the British Pound (30 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (26.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (34.1 percent)
EuroFX (71.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (79.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (30.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (28.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (38.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (38.3 percent)
Swiss Franc (13.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (76.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (76.0 percent)
Australian Dollar (66.4 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (62.9 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (9.1 percent)
Mexican Peso (82.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (80.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.8 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (52.9 percent)
Bitcoin (59.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (54.2 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Canadian Dollar (44 percent) and the Australian Dollar (35 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The British Pound (23 percent), the US Dollar Index (20 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (8 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
The Brazilian Real (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Japanese Yen (-17 percent), EuroFX (-10 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-9 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (20.1 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (33.7 percent)
EuroFX (-10.3 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (9.2 percent)
British Pound Sterling (22.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (23.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (-17.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-22.4 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-15.4 percent)
Canadian Dollar (43.8 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (53.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (34.7 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (45.8 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (8.2 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (4.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (0.1 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (2.5 percent)
Brazilian Real (-29.0 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-31.3 percent)
Bitcoin (0.7 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-10.6 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 26.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.1 | 30.5 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 75.8 | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| – Net Position: | -6,418 | 6,305 | 113 |
| – Gross Longs: | 16,003 | 9,023 | 2,762 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 22,421 | 2,718 | 2,649 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 3.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 26.8 | 73.8 | 35.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.1 | -19.9 | -2.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.2 | 55.4 | 10.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.6 | 73.1 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 111,695 | -155,596 | 43,901 |
| – Gross Longs: | 275,235 | 488,166 | 92,941 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 163,540 | 643,762 | 49,040 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.3 | 28.2 | 67.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.3 | 11.6 | -14.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.2 | 43.8 | 16.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 49.8 | 35.6 | 13.7 |
| – Net Position: | -21,980 | 17,082 | 4,898 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,332 | 91,023 | 33,243 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 103,312 | 73,941 | 28,345 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 30.3 | 66.9 | 66.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.7 | -26.2 | 35.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.6 | 39.5 | 14.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 51.9 | 25.4 | 13.5 |
| – Net Position: | -44,829 | 41,140 | 3,689 |
| – Gross Longs: | 107,139 | 115,583 | 43,047 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 151,968 | 74,443 | 39,358 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.4 | 61.3 | 46.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.1 | 14.9 | 7.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.5 | 73.3 | 14.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 56.5 | 24.4 | 19.0 |
| – Net Position: | -43,207 | 47,972 | -4,765 |
| – Gross Longs: | 12,257 | 71,873 | 13,860 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 55,464 | 23,901 | 18,625 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 3.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.3 | 77.7 | 58.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.3 | 8.8 | -3.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.8 | 56.2 | 13.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.4 | 34.7 | 15.0 |
| – Net Position: | -41,785 | 45,990 | -4,205 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,456 | 120,142 | 27,744 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 101,241 | 74,152 | 31,949 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.2 | 30.5 | 33.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 43.8 | -40.8 | 10.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.2 | 43.6 | 18.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.3 | 48.7 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -14,011 | -11,787 | 25,798 |
| – Gross Longs: | 85,759 | 100,608 | 42,698 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 99,770 | 112,395 | 16,900 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 66.4 | 22.9 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 34.7 | -33.9 | 17.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 79.4 | 4.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 68.3 | 24.6 | 5.3 |
| – Net Position: | -49,610 | 50,811 | -1,201 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,670 | 73,619 | 3,742 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 63,280 | 22,808 | 4,943 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 3.2 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.2 | 91.2 | 36.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.2 | -8.7 | 6.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 63.9 | 32.4 | 3.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.3 | 79.1 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | 107,153 | -111,938 | 4,785 |
| – Gross Longs: | 153,398 | 77,773 | 7,650 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,245 | 189,711 | 2,865 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.3 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.4 | 17.6 | 49.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.1 | -0.6 | 5.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 66.0 | 26.9 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.3 | 53.0 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | 17,641 | -21,265 | 3,624 |
| – Gross Longs: | 53,730 | 21,911 | 4,628 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,089 | 43,176 | 1,004 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 4.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.8 | 46.1 | 41.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -29.0 | 27.6 | 6.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 80.8 | 3.8 | 5.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 79.6 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| – Net Position: | 298 | -445 | 147 |
| – Gross Longs: | 19,841 | 940 | 1,285 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,543 | 1,385 | 1,138 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.0 | 46.7 | 45.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.7 | -2.2 | 3.4 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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