By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the metals markets was Steel with an increase by 649 contracts on the week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-6,846 contracts), Gold (-6,468 contracts), Platinum (-2,470 contracts), Copper (-866 contracts) and with Palladium (-337 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
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Platinum leads the past five days metals price performance as Platinum shot up by over 20%, followed by Palladium which jumped by 13.10% over that same period. Silver continued its hot streak with 11.51% gains over the past five days, followed by Gold with a rise of 8.19%. Steel was also up by 5.3% in that timeframe. Copper was the only market on the downside this week, with a minor dip by -0.68%.
The metals markets have been raging higher over the past 30 days, with Silver up by over 68%, followed by Platinum, which has seen a 67.39% gain in 30 days. Palladium is up by 37% in the past 30 days, while gold has run 18% higher and Copper is up by approximately 12%. Steel rounds out the past 30 days leaders with an approximately 10% gain.
The leaders over the past 90 days have been Silver, with a 139% gain, followed by Platinum, which is up by over 103%. Palladium has seen a 75% gain in the past 90 days, followed by Gold with a 35% rise, Copper with a 25% rise, and Steel is up over 40% in that same time. Truly an unprecedented time for metals strength.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (100 percent) and Palladium (98 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Copper (82.2 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores with Gold (71.1 percent) following.
On the lower side, Silver (44 percent) and Platinum (49 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels of the metals currently although both markets are right around the midpoint for the past 3-years (50 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (71.1 percent) vs Gold previous week (73.7 percent)
Silver (44.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (53.2 percent)
Copper (82.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (83.0 percent)
Platinum (48.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (55.0 percent)
Palladium (97.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (100.0 percent)
Steel (100.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (96.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (20 percent) and Gold (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals. Palladium (6 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.
Silver (-26 percent), Platinum (-12 percent) and Copper (-9 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (8.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (13.8 percent)
Silver (-26.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-8.6 percent)
Copper (-9.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.0 percent)
Platinum (-11.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (4.0 percent)
Palladium (6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (9.4 percent)
Steel (19.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (27.1 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.0 | 16.3 | 11.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 9.7 | 71.1 | 3.3 |
| – Net Position: | 244,770 | -289,689 | 44,919 |
| – Gross Longs: | 295,772 | 85,869 | 62,136 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 51,002 | 375,558 | 17,217 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.8 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 3.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 71.1 | 20.1 | 97.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.6 | -10.9 | 18.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.3 | 28.8 | 23.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.7 | 59.3 | 9.5 |
| – Net Position: | 25,214 | -46,389 | 21,175 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,965 | 43,723 | 35,608 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 17,751 | 90,112 | 14,433 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.0 | 49.2 | 69.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -26.0 | 18.0 | 27.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.5 | 30.9 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.6 | 55.8 | 3.0 |
| – Net Position: | 52,575 | -69,186 | 16,611 |
| – Gross Longs: | 101,631 | 86,077 | 24,890 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 49,056 | 155,263 | 8,279 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 3.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.2 | 10.8 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.2 | 6.0 | 15.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 50.3 | 25.1 | 13.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.1 | 52.7 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 15,124 | -21,782 | 6,658 |
| – Gross Longs: | 39,709 | 19,867 | 10,541 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 24,585 | 41,649 | 3,883 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.8 | 50.3 | 75.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -11.9 | 9.0 | 14.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 50.3 | 28.5 | 17.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.7 | 42.9 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | 888 | -2,762 | 1,874 |
| – Gross Longs: | 9,644 | 5,457 | 3,301 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 8,756 | 8,219 | 1,427 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 97.8 | 0.8 | 84.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.0 | -6.4 | 4.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.9 | 58.1 | 1.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 6.8 | 90.4 | 0.5 |
| – Net Position: | 11,671 | -12,098 | 427 |
| – Gross Longs: | 14,235 | 21,805 | 611 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,564 | 33,903 | 184 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 5.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 3.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 89.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.6 | -20.5 | 33.0 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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