By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the energy markets was WTI Crude (20,664 contracts) with Heating Oil (1,533 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (17 contracts) also having a small positive week.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Brent Oil (-8,263 contracts), Natural Gas (-7,889 contracts) and with Gasoline (-1,747 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.
Free Reports:
The energy market price performance was led by the surging Natural Gas price. Natural Gas jumped higher in the past five days by over 35% while the Bloomberg Commodity Index was the next highest, with a 5.96% gain on the week. Heating Oil was up by over 5% while WTI Crude Oil rose by 3.96%, followed by Brent Oil with a 3.75% rise, and then Gasoline which rose by 3.25%.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has been on a strong uptrend and is the price leader for the past 30 days with an 11% gain. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is the leader over the past 90 days as well with the Index being higher by approximately 18% in that time-frame.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Index (80.6 percent), Gasoline (65.3 percent) and Heating Oil (64.6 percent) lead the energy markets this week.
On the downside, Natural Gas (0.0 percent) and WTI Crude (12.6 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Brent Oil (21.1 percent).
Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (5.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (21.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (32.8 percent)
Natural Gas (0.0 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.5 percent)
Gasoline (65.3 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (67.2 percent)
Heating Oil (64.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (62.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (80.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (80.5 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Bloomberg Index (70.8 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the energy markets. WTI Crude (6.6 percent) is the next highest positive mover with a much more modest gain in the latest trends data.
Natural Gas (-60.9 percent), Gasoline (-24.1 percent) and Brent Oil (-13.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (6.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.3 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-13.1 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-13.6 percent)
Natural Gas (-60.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (-41.4 percent)
Gasoline (-24.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-32.8 percent)
Heating Oil (-5.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (-11.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (70.8 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (61.5 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.5 | 41.8 | 3.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 10.5 | 46.8 | 2.5 |
| – Net Position: | 78,792 | -97,047 | 18,255 |
| – Gross Longs: | 284,809 | 821,803 | 67,044 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 206,017 | 918,850 | 48,789 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 12.6 | 87.2 | 38.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.6 | -5.7 | -3.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.1 | 37.0 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.7 | 20.8 | 2.3 |
| – Net Position: | -42,150 | 38,875 | 3,275 |
| – Gross Longs: | 48,278 | 88,910 | 8,766 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 90,428 | 50,035 | 5,491 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.1 | 78.7 | 73.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.1 | 11.8 | 17.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Natural Gas Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.9 | 37.5 | 3.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.9 | 26.2 | 3.0 |
| – Net Position: | -193,490 | 182,060 | 11,430 |
| – Gross Longs: | 241,131 | 604,854 | 59,623 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 434,621 | 422,794 | 48,193 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 0.0 | 100.0 | 31.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -60.9 | 65.5 | -25.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.0 | 48.4 | 5.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.5 | 65.8 | 3.9 |
| – Net Position: | 70,780 | -79,205 | 8,425 |
| – Gross Longs: | 109,470 | 220,697 | 26,230 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 38,690 | 299,902 | 17,805 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.3 | 32.6 | 70.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.1 | 23.9 | -11.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Heating Oil Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.8 | 48.9 | 12.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 11.8 | 57.3 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | 16,044 | -32,938 | 16,894 |
| – Gross Longs: | 62,563 | 193,349 | 47,815 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,519 | 226,287 | 30,921 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.6 | 35.2 | 64.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.5 | 10.2 | -17.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.6 | 69.6 | 0.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.6 | 66.9 | 0.0 |
| – Net Position: | -5,781 | 5,143 | 638 |
| – Gross Longs: | 52,210 | 131,824 | 676 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 57,991 | 126,681 | 38 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 17.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.6 | 17.7 | 47.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 70.8 | -70.7 | 0.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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