By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 22nd and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were overall higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Mexican Peso (5,942 contracts) with the Canadian Dollar (3,751 contracts), the Japanese Yen (3,063 contracts), the Brazilian Real (1,685 contracts), Bitcoin (634 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (214 contracts) also recording positive weeks.
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The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the British Pound (-28,621 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-6,797 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-6,336 contracts), the Swiss Franc (-3,428 contracts) and with the EuroFX (-2,706 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
Highlighting this week’s currency speculators data is the sharp drop in the British Pound Sterling speculator bets.
The GBP speculator positions fell this week by -28,621 contracts and dropped for the second straight week. This was also the fifth time over the last six weeks that speculators have reduced their positioning for a 6-week drop by -51,064 contracts. This week’s decline marked the largest one-week drop in just about a year and takes the current speculator standing (+570 contracts) to the lowest level since February 18th, a span of 22 weeks.
Helping dent the speculator position for the British Pound Sterling is the outlook that the Bank of England could be reducing their benchmark interest rates. According to Reuters, traders see around an 80% chance of an interest rate reduction as early as August.
Despite the negative sentiment this week for the British Pound Sterling, the currency’s exchange rate continues to be near the highest levels since 2022 against the US dollar. This week, the GBP currency closed just below the 1.3500 level and saw a modest gain for the week.
Elsewhere in currency market prices:
– The Euro led the major market prices with an increase of over 1% against the US Dollar this week.
– The Mexican Peso, the New Zealand Dollar, the Australian Dollar, the Swiss Franc, and the Japanese Yen all saw higher exchange rates against the USD, varying from 0.75% to 1% gains.
– The US Dollar Index was the leading loser on the week with a decline of -0.84%.
– Bitcoin also saw a very modest small decline after recent all-time highs.
Legend: Open Interest | Speculators Current Net Position | Weekly Specs Change | Specs Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (80 percent) and the EuroFX (77 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (66 percent), New Zealand Dollar (61 percent) and the Mexican Peso (57 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the US Dollar Index (6 percent), Bitcoin (13 percent) and the Australian Dollar (19 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (5.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (5.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.6 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (77.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (32.7 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (46.3 percent)
Japanese Yen (80.0 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (79.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (48.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (55.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (56.4 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (54.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (18.6 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (23.1 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.8 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (68.7 percent)
Mexican Peso (57.3 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (54.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (65.5 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (64.2 percent)
Bitcoin (13.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (0.0 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (21 percent) and the EuroFX (12 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Canadian Dollar (10 percent) and Bitcoin (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
The British Pound (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Brazilian Real (-11 percent), the US Dollar Index (-11 percent) and the Swiss Franc (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (-10.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-9.4 percent)
EuroFX (12.4 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (17.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-24.3 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-2.9 percent)
Japanese Yen (-10.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-13.1 percent)
Swiss Franc (-9.7 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (6.9 percent)
Canadian Dollar (10.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-8.0 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-8.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (20.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (31.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-7.3 percent)
Brazilian Real (-10.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-5.4 percent)
Bitcoin (3.3 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-3.7 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 47.4 | 37.0 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 57.0 | 25.9 | 9.7 |
| – Net Position: | -3,451 | 3,988 | -537 |
| – Gross Longs: | 16,925 | 13,234 | 2,946 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 20,376 | 9,246 | 3,483 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 5.7 | 94.4 | 23.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.7 | 8.2 | 11.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.4 | 55.6 | 11.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.6 | 76.7 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | 125,515 | -177,713 | 52,198 |
| – Gross Longs: | 248,380 | 469,100 | 96,216 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 122,865 | 646,813 | 44,018 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.6 | 20.7 | 84.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.4 | -9.0 | -12.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 48.0 | 34.8 | 16.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 47.7 | 37.7 | 13.8 |
| – Net Position: | 570 | -5,739 | 5,169 |
| – Gross Longs: | 93,760 | 67,928 | 32,179 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 93,190 | 73,667 | 27,010 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.7 | 61.5 | 73.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -24.3 | 22.7 | -7.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.5 | 32.4 | 14.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.5 | 69.9 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | 106,645 | -117,360 | 10,715 |
| – Gross Longs: | 164,411 | 101,532 | 43,676 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 57,766 | 218,892 | 32,961 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 80.0 | 21.3 | 68.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.4 | 13.0 | -31.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.7 | 69.0 | 20.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.1 | 34.0 | 20.7 |
| – Net Position: | -26,065 | 26,431 | -366 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,087 | 52,184 | 15,305 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 34,152 | 25,753 | 15,671 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.1 | 42.6 | 77.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.7 | 10.7 | -7.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 11.5 | 70.1 | 11.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 46.5 | 34.5 | 12.4 |
| – Net Position: | -70,343 | 71,510 | -1,167 |
| – Gross Longs: | 23,086 | 140,760 | 23,647 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 93,429 | 69,250 | 24,814 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.4 | 43.9 | 40.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.2 | -8.3 | -8.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.5 | 65.1 | 14.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 65.9 | 17.2 | 12.0 |
| – Net Position: | -81,255 | 77,341 | 3,914 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,066 | 105,142 | 23,352 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 106,321 | 27,801 | 19,438 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 3.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 18.6 | 76.0 | 59.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.0 | 8.1 | -6.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 27.1 | 51.4 | 9.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.3 | 43.9 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | -3,162 | 3,291 | -129 |
| – Gross Longs: | 11,955 | 22,656 | 4,276 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 15,117 | 19,365 | 4,405 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.8 | 37.8 | 51.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.9 | -19.7 | -7.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.5 | 37.6 | 4.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.0 | 72.6 | 1.7 |
| – Net Position: | 56,064 | -60,340 | 4,276 |
| – Gross Longs: | 99,081 | 64,766 | 7,251 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 43,017 | 125,106 | 2,975 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 57.3 | 43.2 | 46.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.4 | 2.9 | 6.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 62.3 | 31.6 | 4.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.6 | 63.0 | 1.1 |
| – Net Position: | 25,857 | -29,388 | 3,531 |
| – Gross Longs: | 58,202 | 29,484 | 4,575 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,345 | 58,872 | 1,044 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 4.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.5 | 33.0 | 40.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.9 | 10.8 | -0.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 79.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 85.4 | 1.3 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | -1,852 | 1,247 | 605 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,447 | 1,659 | 1,710 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,299 | 412 | 1,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 4.0 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.4 | 84.4 | 68.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.3 | -11.0 | 17.5 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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