By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 13th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT metals markets speculator bets were decisively lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-1,288 contracts), Silver (-1,498 contracts), Steel (-635 contracts), Palladium (-470 contracts), Platinum (-194 contracts) and with Copper (-181 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Free Reports:
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (77 percent) and Silver (76 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (26 percent) and Platinum (38 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
Gold (41.4 percent) vs Gold previous week (41.9 percent)
Silver (76.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (78.4 percent)
Copper (53.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (53.5 percent)
Platinum (38.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.4 percent)
Palladium (25.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (29.5 percent)
Steel (77.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (80.2 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that all of the metals markets currently have negative trend scores. Copper (-8 percent) and Steel (-9 percent) have the least negative scores while Gold (-29 percent) and Palladium (-20 percent) have the most negative scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-29.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-33.2 percent)
Silver (-12.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (-14.8 percent)
Copper (-7.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.5 percent)
Platinum (-13.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-9.6 percent)
Palladium (-19.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-12.6 percent)
Steel (-8.6 percent) vs Steel previous week (-13.7 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.0 | 20.1 | 11.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.5 | 63.4 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 161,209 | -191,207 | 29,998 |
| – Gross Longs: | 238,191 | 88,412 | 51,570 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 76,982 | 279,619 | 21,572 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.1 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 41.4 | 53.5 | 92.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -29.3 | 26.6 | 14.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 21.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.1 | 24.0 | 19.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.6 | 71.9 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | 47,754 | -66,180 | 18,426 |
| – Gross Longs: | 67,944 | 33,164 | 27,520 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 20,190 | 99,344 | 9,094 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.4 to 1 | 0.3 to 1 | 3.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 76.5 | 21.2 | 59.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.0 | 11.3 | -3.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 36.7 | 31.0 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.7 | 43.5 | 5.9 |
| – Net Position: | 21,522 | -24,343 | 2,821 |
| – Gross Longs: | 71,926 | 60,805 | 14,368 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 50,404 | 85,148 | 11,547 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 53.3 | 49.5 | 34.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -7.9 | 5.8 | 10.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.6 | 24.5 | 11.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.3 | 42.2 | 5.8 |
| – Net Position: | 9,316 | -13,469 | 4,153 |
| – Gross Longs: | 42,968 | 18,603 | 8,566 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,652 | 32,072 | 4,413 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.0 | 62.7 | 27.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.4 | 13.4 | -4.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.9 | 50.9 | 11.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 76.6 | 5.0 | 7.3 |
| – Net Position: | -10,461 | 9,659 | 802 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,661 | 10,715 | 2,345 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,122 | 1,056 | 1,543 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 10.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 25.9 | 71.0 | 67.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.5 | 20.0 | -1.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.7 | 65.0 | 0.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 29.2 | 65.4 | 0.7 |
| – Net Position: | 171 | -157 | -14 |
| – Gross Longs: | 10,440 | 22,868 | 218 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,269 | 23,025 | 232 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.3 | 24.2 | 30.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.6 | 9.0 | -8.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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