By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday March 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT bond market speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 1-Month with a gain of 42,737 contracts also showing positive weeks.
The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Fed Funds (-233,685 contracts), the 5-Year Bonds (-172,588 contracts), the SOFR 3-Months (-114,073 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-58,709 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-21,846 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-21,236 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (-12,185 contracts) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-4,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (86 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (77 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (75 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the Fed Funds (10 percent) and the SOFR 3-Months (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores were the 2-Year Bonds (21 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (41 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (10.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (53.4 percent)
2-Year Bond (21.5 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (23.0 percent)
5-Year Bond (9.8 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (19.0 percent)
10-Year Bond (40.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (75.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (83.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (77.2 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (97.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (85.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (87.4 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (60.2 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (49.7 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (16.9 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (22.8 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (36 percent) and the lead the past six weeks trends for bonds.
The SOFR 1-Month (-17 percent), the US Treasury Bond (-15 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (-12 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-9.1 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (33.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (0.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (7.4 percent)
5-Year Bond (-0.1 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (8.1 percent)
10-Year Bond (-12.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-12.5 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (36.3 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (32.2 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-14.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-0.7 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (5.6 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (-17.0 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (-16.9 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-8.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-0.2 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| 30-Day Federal Funds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.1 | 69.2 | 2.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.7 | 56.7 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -240,075 | 220,897 | 19,178 |
| – Gross Longs: | 214,528 | 1,224,314 | 43,847 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 454,603 | 1,003,417 | 24,669 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 10.3 | 82.2 | 87.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.1 | 4.8 | 30.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOFR 3-Months Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.9 | 61.2 | 0.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.9 | 53.5 | 0.4 |
| – Net Position: | -838,944 | 814,365 | 24,579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,367,058 | 6,463,732 | 66,088 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,206,002 | 5,649,367 | 41,509 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.9 | 81.7 | 100.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.6 | 7.7 | 9.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SOFR 1-Month Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.3 | 54.6 | 0.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.0 | 50.3 | 2.0 |
| – Net Position: | -33,587 | 54,688 | -21,101 |
| – Gross Longs: | 311,799 | 699,458 | 4,676 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 345,386 | 644,770 | 25,777 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.2 | 45.0 | 29.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.0 | 22.1 | -55.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 80.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| 2-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.4 | 74.1 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.0 | 47.2 | 2.6 |
| – Net Position: | -1,171,299 | 1,032,223 | 139,076 |
| – Gross Longs: | 553,273 | 2,841,528 | 240,539 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,724,572 | 1,809,305 | 101,463 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.5 | 75.7 | 80.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 5-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.2 | 82.8 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.3 | 56.5 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | -1,798,361 | 1,632,826 | 165,535 |
| – Gross Longs: | 447,699 | 5,131,809 | 430,704 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,246,060 | 3,498,983 | 265,169 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 9.8 | 85.4 | 82.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.1 | -2.4 | 8.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| 10-Year Treasury Note Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 13.5 | 75.2 | 8.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.7 | 61.4 | 7.4 |
| – Net Position: | -712,040 | 653,140 | 58,900 |
| – Gross Longs: | 637,490 | 3,542,653 | 408,077 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 1,349,530 | 2,889,513 | 349,177 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.8 | 58.7 | 72.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.5 | 10.8 | 12.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 15.2 | 73.6 | 10.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.5 | 68.3 | 12.3 |
| – Net Position: | -74,193 | 118,891 | -44,698 |
| – Gross Longs: | 339,134 | 1,641,606 | 228,663 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 413,327 | 1,522,715 | 273,361 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 75.1 | 9.1 | 81.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 36.3 | -40.4 | 3.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.7 | 67.5 | 12.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.6 | 71.7 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | -17,797 | -82,656 | 100,453 |
| – Gross Longs: | 341,103 | 1,303,352 | 234,473 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 358,900 | 1,386,008 | 134,020 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 77.2 | 15.0 | 87.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.7 | 2.3 | 23.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.2 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.2 | 80.9 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.3 | 69.5 | 8.8 |
| – Net Position: | -231,904 | 200,977 | 30,927 |
| – Gross Longs: | 143,596 | 1,425,013 | 185,058 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 375,500 | 1,224,036 | 154,131 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 85.8 | 5.7 | 52.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -0.7 | -12.6 | 40.7 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
By ForexTime FXTM’s USDInd ↑ 2% MTD Dollar best performing G10 currency MTD Geopolitical risk…
By JustMarkets The US stock market concluded Thursday’s session in the red as the escalating…
By Analytical Department RoboForex EUR/USD is holding near 1.1620 on Friday, with the US dollar…
By JustMarkets The US stock market rose on Wednesday. By the end of the day,…
By Daniele D'Alvia, Queen Mary University of London When a conflict escalates, financial markets respond…
By Analytical Department RoboForex GBP/USD contracted to 1.3350 on Thursday, with the pound remaining under…
This website uses cookies.
