By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.
The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the currency markets was the Brazilian Real (38,736 contracts) with the Japanese Yen (19,727 contracts), the British Pound (10,349 contracts), the EuroFX (7,990 contracts), the Mexican Peso (7,038 contracts), the Swiss Franc (742 contracts) and the US Dollar Index (339 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the Canadian Dollar (-12,843 contracts), the Australian Dollar (-3,478 contracts), the New Zealand Dollar (-2,059 contracts) and with Bitcoin (-379 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the renewal in bullish bets for the Japanese yen speculators. Large speculative yen positions gained for a third consecutive week this week and has risen by a total of +48,179 contracts over these past three weeks.
This renewed sentiment for the yen has pushed the net position (currently at +18,768 contracts) to the most positive level in the past eight weeks. The yen speculator bets had recently spent four weeks in bullish territory in December before dropping back into negative territory in January.
The yen has had extremely bearish speculator positioning over the past four years (basically since March of 2021) and very often had over -100,000 net speculator weekly contracts as policy divergences between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan caused the yen exchange rate to drop to multi-decade lows versus the American currency.
The BOJ recently raised their interest rate by 25 basis points in January from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent as inflation is poised to pickup, according to the BOJ. This increase moved the rate to the highest level since 2008, underscoring the rare move.
The yen exchange rate, overall, has continued to trend near the bottom of its range from the past few years but has managed to gain versus the US Dollar for the past four weeks in a row. The USDJPY currency pair trades at 151.42 to end the week after hitting support right below 159.00 in late-January. Since then, the USDJPY has seen yen strength with a break below support at 155.00 and currently trades around a major support/resistance level around 152.00 that could determine the short-term direction of the pair.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Japanese Yen (81 percent) and the Bitcoin (68 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The Brazilian Real (52 percent), US Dollar Index (37 percent) and the Mexican Peso (35 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the New Zealand Dollar (6 percent), the EuroFX (6 percent), the Swiss Franc (15 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
3-Year Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (36.8 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (36.1 percent)
EuroFX (6.5 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (3.4 percent)
British Pound Sterling (31.0 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (26.4 percent)
Japanese Yen (81.1 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (73.2 percent)
Swiss Franc (15.3 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (13.8 percent)
Canadian Dollar (16.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (21.8 percent)
Australian Dollar (22.9 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (25.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (6.5 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (8.9 percent)
Mexican Peso (35.0 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (31.4 percent)
Brazilian Real (52.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (15.6 percent)
Bitcoin (68.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (76.7 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Brazilian Real (20 percent) and the Bitcoin (20 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The US Dollar Index (17 percent), the Japanese Yen (7 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (7 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the 3-Year trends data.
The Swiss Franc (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the British Pound (-14 percent), Australian Dollar (-5 percent) and the New Zealand Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
3-Year Strength Trends:
US Dollar Index (16.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (17.7 percent)
EuroFX (3.8 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (-0.3 percent)
British Pound Sterling (-13.8 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (-19.5 percent)
Japanese Yen (6.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (-2.8 percent)
Swiss Franc (-28.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (-43.0 percent)
Canadian Dollar (7.3 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (15.4 percent)
Australian Dollar (-5.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (-7.3 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (-3.6 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (-5.3 percent)
Mexican Peso (-3.4 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-4.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (19.9 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (-16.7 percent)
Bitcoin (20.0 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (21.7 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 63.5 | 24.3 | 9.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.9 | 64.3 | 6.3 |
| – Net Position: | 14,539 | -15,914 | 1,375 |
| – Gross Longs: | 25,203 | 9,630 | 3,885 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,664 | 25,544 | 2,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 36.8 | 62.7 | 41.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.7 | -15.0 | -5.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| EURO Currency Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.4 | 56.5 | 12.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.9 | 50.6 | 8.5 |
| – Net Position: | -58,614 | 36,471 | 22,143 |
| – Gross Longs: | 162,554 | 348,354 | 74,337 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 221,168 | 311,883 | 52,194 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.5 | 93.6 | 22.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.8 | -6.4 | 19.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.4 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| BRITISH POUND Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.0 | 54.5 | 11.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.5 | 42.3 | 17.9 |
| – Net Position: | -11,323 | 25,029 | -13,706 |
| – Gross Longs: | 65,442 | 111,619 | 22,951 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 76,765 | 86,590 | 36,657 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 31.0 | 71.3 | 33.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -13.8 | 15.1 | -15.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| JAPANESE YEN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 45.1 | 30.4 | 21.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 43.6 | 16.1 |
| – Net Position: | 18,768 | -30,683 | 11,915 |
| – Gross Longs: | 104,684 | 70,418 | 49,277 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,916 | 101,101 | 37,362 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.1 | 17.2 | 92.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 6.6 | -12.6 | 43.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| SWISS FRANC Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.4 | 85.6 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 48.5 | 29.2 | 21.9 |
| – Net Position: | -42,258 | 55,303 | -13,045 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,242 | 83,873 | 8,424 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 47,500 | 28,570 | 21,469 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 2.9 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 15.3 | 89.6 | 23.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -28.1 | 14.5 | 21.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.9 | 84.5 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.1 | 35.3 | 10.4 |
| – Net Position: | -160,444 | 170,842 | -10,398 |
| – Gross Longs: | 20,421 | 293,323 | 25,707 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 180,865 | 122,481 | 36,105 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.1 | 86.4 | 12.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 7.3 | -7.2 | 3.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.2 | 68.1 | 11.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 54.0 | 27.3 | 15.0 |
| – Net Position: | -75,309 | 83,501 | -8,192 |
| – Gross Longs: | 35,330 | 139,494 | 22,568 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 110,639 | 55,993 | 30,760 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 2.5 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 22.9 | 79.7 | 27.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.1 | 3.2 | 4.8 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 9.9 | 85.7 | 4.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 68.4 | 24.2 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -49,090 | 51,675 | -2,585 |
| – Gross Longs: | 8,327 | 71,989 | 3,459 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 57,417 | 20,314 | 6,044 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 3.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.5 | 93.8 | 20.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.6 | 2.8 | 8.2 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| MEXICAN PESO Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 42.3 | 54.0 | 2.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.8 | 60.6 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 12,262 | -9,518 | -2,744 |
| – Gross Longs: | 61,459 | 78,564 | 3,020 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 49,197 | 88,082 | 5,764 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 35.0 | 69.3 | 7.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| BRAZIL REAL Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 56.8 | 36.9 | 5.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 56.4 | 38.1 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 242 | -723 | 481 |
| – Gross Longs: | 33,402 | 21,671 | 3,007 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 33,160 | 22,394 | 2,526 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.3 | 48.5 | 23.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 19.9 | -21.3 | 10.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| BITCOIN Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 83.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 81.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 |
| – Net Position: | 786 | -918 | 132 |
| – Gross Longs: | 27,570 | 1,544 | 1,329 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 26,784 | 2,462 | 1,197 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.4 | 40.5 | 20.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.0 | -19.3 | -10.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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