By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday February 4th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT stock markets speculator bets were hgher this week as four out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (51,337 contracts) with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (13,909 contracts), the VIX (915 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (863 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the Nasdaq-Mini (-11,713 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-5,463 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-13 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (69 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (64 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (64 percent) and DowJones-Mini (63 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the VIX (52 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.4 percent) vs VIX previous week (51.6 percent)
S&P500-Mini (64.0 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (56.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (63.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (63.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (68.6 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (86.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (63.2 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (66.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (61.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (54.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (64.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.2 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the MSCI EAFE-Mini (20 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (9 percent) and the Nikkei 225 (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
The VIX (-28 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the Russell-Mini (-18 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-28.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (8.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-2.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-6.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-9.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-12.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-8.4 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-17.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-14.8 percent)
Nikkei USD (3.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-5.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (20.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (4.1 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.6 | 48.1 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 34.5 | 33.8 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -48,530 | 46,367 | 2,163 |
| – Gross Longs: | 63,875 | 156,543 | 28,653 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 112,405 | 110,176 | 26,490 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 52.4 | 47.4 | 86.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -28.3 | 21.5 | 24.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 68.7 | 13.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.0 | 74.7 | 6.9 |
| – Net Position: | -4,817 | -123,461 | 128,278 |
| – Gross Longs: | 306,741 | 1,423,400 | 271,788 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 311,558 | 1,546,861 | 143,510 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.0 | 17.2 | 88.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.8 | -8.9 | 0.4 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.0 | 63.5 | 18.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.9 | 70.9 | 12.9 |
| – Net Position: | 1,721 | -6,083 | 4,362 |
| – Gross Longs: | 13,205 | 52,409 | 14,969 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,484 | 58,492 | 10,607 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.1 | 29.4 | 79.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.9 | 7.2 | -4.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.3 | 54.1 | 15.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.9 | 66.0 | 10.7 |
| – Net Position: | 18,978 | -30,811 | 11,833 |
| – Gross Longs: | 75,804 | 140,048 | 39,452 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 56,826 | 170,859 | 27,619 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.6 | 20.4 | 77.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.8 | 11.4 | -4.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.5 | 77.6 | 8.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 74.7 | 5.2 |
| – Net Position: | -27,498 | 12,186 | 15,312 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,118 | 326,371 | 37,173 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,616 | 314,185 | 21,861 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 63.2 | 31.4 | 67.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.7 | 20.8 | -22.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 61.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.9 | 72.3 | 19.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 26.8 | 53.2 | 20.0 |
| – Net Position: | -2,200 | 2,229 | -29 |
| – Gross Longs: | 923 | 8,438 | 2,311 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,123 | 6,209 | 2,340 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 61.4 | 42.0 | 42.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.4 | 2.7 | -15.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 10.4 | 86.9 | 2.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.8 | 84.1 | 1.9 |
| – Net Position: | -14,606 | 11,710 | 2,896 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,985 | 376,345 | 11,105 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 59,591 | 364,635 | 8,209 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.2 | 40.3 | 31.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 20.2 | -18.2 | -2.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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