COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (43,471 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (1,741 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (509 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,702 contracts), the VIX (-3,818 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,550 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-1,571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)

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Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the Nikkei 225 (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (55.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (58.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (94.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (44.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (58.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)

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Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-29.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-39.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-15.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)

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Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.9	46.8	8.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	34.2	32.7	7.8
– Net Position:	-48,988	48,253	735
– Gross Longs:	67,787	159,781	27,288
– Gross Shorts:	116,775	111,528	26,553
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.0	49.0	81.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-29.3	30.0	-12.0

 

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S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.1	69.1	12.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.6	73.7	6.6
– Net Position:	-39,862	-118,471	158,333
– Gross Longs:	313,420	1,793,629	328,497
– Gross Shorts:	353,282	1,912,100	170,164
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.8	23.5	100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.9	15.8	15.3

 

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Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.7	56.0	18.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.6	68.4	13.3
– Net Position:	7,521	-13,145	5,624
– Gross Longs:	20,780	59,009	19,672
– Gross Shorts:	13,259	72,154	14,048
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	72.5	19.2	94.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	5.8	9.3

 

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Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.0	54.6	13.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.9	69.1	9.8
– Net Position:	36,082	-47,174	11,092
– Gross Longs:	94,151	177,346	42,919
– Gross Shorts:	58,069	224,520	31,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	95.1	2.9	75.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	31.0	-20.9	-0.9

 

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Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	73.3	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	77.2	4.4
– Net Position:	-416	-22,280	22,696
– Gross Longs:	72,290	417,352	47,882
– Gross Shorts:	72,706	439,632	25,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	81.7	10.3	88.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	0.8	22.5

 

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Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.8	71.5	23.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	45.1	42.3	12.6
– Net Position:	-4,174	3,029	1,145
– Gross Longs:	501	7,419	2,456
– Gross Shorts:	4,675	4,390	1,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	44.6	47.6	65.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-15.2	11.8	1.8

 

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MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.1	84.6	3.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	12.8	81.1	1.2
– Net Position:	-31,665	19,842	11,823
– Gross Longs:	39,277	470,654	18,670
– Gross Shorts:	70,942	450,812	6,847
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.8	56.7	75.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.4	-23.1	24.9

 

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Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.