By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were higher this week as seven out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the softs markets was Sugar (12,221 contracts) with Lean Hogs (10,520 contracts), Soybeans (7,453 contracts), Cotton (3,311 contracts), Live Cattle (3,295 contracts), Soybean Meal (1,862 contracts) and Corn (359 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Wheat (-9,345 contracts), Soybean Oil (-8,665 contracts), Coffee (-3,886 contracts) and Cocoa (-1,570 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Coffee (91 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (84 percent), Soybean Oil (56 percent) and Corn (51 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Soybean Meal (13 percent) comes in at the lowest strength levels currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are Cotton (22 percent), Soybeans (23 percent) and Wheat (28 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Corn (51.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (51.3 percent)
Sugar (32.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (28.3 percent)
Coffee (90.9 percent) vs Coffee previous week (94.7 percent)
Soybeans (23.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (21.5 percent)
Soybean Oil (56.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (60.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (13.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (12.7 percent)
Live Cattle (83.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (80.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (91.8 percent)
Cotton (21.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (19.7 percent)
Cocoa (47.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (49.5 percent)
Wheat (28.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (35.7 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Lean Hogs (33 percent) and Live Cattle (26 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Soybean Meal (-42 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Wheat (-35 percent), Soybean Oil (-23 percent) and Soybeans (-5 percent) following next with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.1 percent)
Sugar (-1.8 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-10.4 percent)
Coffee (0.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (3.6 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-9.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.1 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-9.5 percent)
Soybean Meal (-42.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-40.1 percent)
Live Cattle (26.2 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.1 percent)
Lean Hogs (33.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (31.7 percent)
Cotton (-4.2 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-4.2 percent)
Cocoa (-3.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-4.7 percent)
Wheat (-35.3 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-30.5 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| CORN Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 26.4 | 46.5 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.5 | 53.1 | 10.5 |
| – Net Position: | 137,228 | -101,968 | -35,260 |
| – Gross Longs: | 404,920 | 711,737 | 125,015 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 267,692 | 813,705 | 160,275 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 51.3 | 49.0 | 60.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 15.2 | -17.1 | 12.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| SUGAR Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.7 | 50.5 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.8 | 62.7 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | 88,315 | -108,348 | 20,033 |
| – Gross Longs: | 228,964 | 449,489 | 73,180 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 140,649 | 557,837 | 53,147 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.6 | 65.3 | 45.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -1.8 | 6.1 | -21.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.3 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COFFEE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 38.6 | 35.1 | 4.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 5.6 | 69.6 | 2.9 |
| – Net Position: | 66,727 | -69,817 | 3,090 |
| – Gross Longs: | 78,015 | 70,936 | 9,014 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,288 | 140,753 | 5,924 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 6.9 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 90.9 | 8.7 | 64.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.4 | -0.2 | -3.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEANS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.2 | 56.4 | 5.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.9 | 43.9 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -98,484 | 115,653 | -17,169 |
| – Gross Longs: | 158,897 | 520,431 | 49,744 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 257,381 | 404,778 | 66,913 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 23.3 | 77.3 | 67.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.8 | 4.4 | 6.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.5 | 53.7 | 5.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.8 | 59.4 | 4.7 |
| – Net Position: | 26,828 | -32,252 | 5,424 |
| – Gross Longs: | 138,699 | 303,490 | 32,253 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 111,871 | 335,742 | 26,829 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 56.1 | 47.0 | 35.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -23.1 | 22.8 | -15.6 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 45.9 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.6 | 44.0 | 5.5 |
| – Net Position: | -33,970 | 11,231 | 22,739 |
| – Gross Longs: | 132,664 | 277,159 | 55,879 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 166,634 | 265,928 | 33,140 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 13.5 | 82.2 | 58.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -42.0 | 40.8 | -2.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.4 | 31.0 | 6.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.8 | 51.6 | 13.7 |
| – Net Position: | 97,044 | -72,727 | -24,317 |
| – Gross Longs: | 163,456 | 109,258 | 24,090 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,412 | 181,985 | 48,407 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.6 | 33.6 | 0.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 26.2 | -26.3 | -9.9 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.
| LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.0 | 28.0 | 6.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.1 | 50.5 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | 91,759 | -82,933 | -8,826 |
| – Gross Longs: | 180,550 | 103,197 | 23,829 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 88,791 | 186,130 | 32,655 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 100.0 | 0.0 | 39.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.1 | -33.8 | -12.3 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| COTTON Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.8 | 46.3 | 5.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.7 | 40.4 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | -13,590 | 13,602 | -12 |
| – Gross Longs: | 59,802 | 107,282 | 12,854 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 73,392 | 93,680 | 12,866 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.9 | 78.2 | 16.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.2 | 4.3 | -4.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.
| COCOA Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 43.3 | 35.9 | 9.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.7 | 69.4 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | 37,165 | -43,594 | 6,429 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,340 | 46,774 | 11,738 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 19,175 | 90,368 | 5,309 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.9 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 47.9 | 49.3 | 66.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -3.9 | 3.1 | 6.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| WHEAT Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 29.6 | 38.3 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 44.1 | 22.7 | 8.1 |
| – Net Position: | -61,537 | 66,335 | -4,798 |
| – Gross Longs: | 125,216 | 162,383 | 29,486 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 186,753 | 96,048 | 34,284 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.3 | 74.1 | 31.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -35.3 | 35.2 | 3.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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