By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.
Free Reports:
Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (50,742 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (10,970 contracts) and the DowJones-Mini (3,306 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the VIX (-15,096 contracts), the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,952 contracts), the Russell-Mini (-3,151 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-498 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (88 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (81 percent) and VIX (81 percent) come in right behind them as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (16 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
VIX (81.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (94.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (81.7 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (74.1 percent)
DowJones-Mini (81.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (76.0 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (64.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (88.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (90.2 percent)
Nikkei USD (59.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (63.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (16.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (31.3 percent)
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the S&P500-Mini (22 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) is the only other positive mover (just barely) in the latest trends data.
The MSCI EAFE-Mini (-14 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the VIX (-11 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-10.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (4.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (22.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (27.7 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-4.1 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (-8.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (0.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-21.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-9.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-6.3 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (16.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-14.0 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (6.3 percent)
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.5 | 41.1 | 8.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.3 | 37.3 | 7.8 |
| – Net Position: | -16,668 | 13,017 | 3,651 |
| – Gross Longs: | 87,632 | 141,435 | 30,551 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 104,300 | 128,418 | 26,900 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.3 | 19.0 | 93.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -10.5 | 5.4 | 21.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 17.5 | 67.7 | 12.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.2 | 78.6 | 7.1 |
| – Net Position: | 113,440 | -233,202 | 119,762 |
| – Gross Longs: | 374,881 | 1,448,167 | 272,336 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 261,441 | 1,681,369 | 152,574 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.7 | 7.7 | 98.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 22.2 | -23.9 | 11.1 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 28.0 | 50.7 | 18.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 13.0 | 70.6 | 13.9 |
| – Net Position: | 12,931 | -17,117 | 4,186 |
| – Gross Longs: | 24,195 | 43,814 | 16,160 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 11,264 | 60,931 | 11,974 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 81.3 | 13.4 | 79.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.1 | 2.5 | 4.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.6 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 24.8 | 57.2 | 15.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.5 | 68.1 | 10.7 |
| – Net Position: | 16,092 | -27,658 | 11,566 |
| – Gross Longs: | 62,784 | 144,580 | 38,511 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 46,692 | 172,238 | 26,945 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 64.1 | 22.2 | 76.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 0.1 | 1.9 | -3.5 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 18.0 | 72.2 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.0 | 77.5 | 4.0 |
| – Net Position: | 8,792 | -23,537 | 14,745 |
| – Gross Longs: | 80,594 | 324,134 | 32,917 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 71,802 | 347,671 | 18,172 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 88.0 | 9.5 | 78.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.0 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 2.0 | 70.2 | 27.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.7 | 55.7 | 19.5 |
| – Net Position: | -2,464 | 1,576 | 888 |
| – Gross Longs: | 221 | 7,620 | 3,008 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 2,685 | 6,044 | 2,120 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.1 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 59.2 | 37.5 | 60.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.3 | 4.8 | 1.0 |
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.9 | 89.2 | 2.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 18.4 | 80.1 | 1.2 |
| – Net Position: | -48,823 | 42,004 | 6,819 |
| – Gross Longs: | 36,603 | 414,178 | 12,337 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 85,426 | 372,174 | 5,518 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.4 | 79.8 | 51.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.0 | 15.7 | -9.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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